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Email: vginn@texaspolicy.com
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn
Outline
Information on Texas’ economy, labor market, and
fiscal situation.
Economic Freedom of North America (2017) 11th (World) 2nd 2nd 49th 50th
State Business Tax Climate Index (2017) -- 13th 4th 48th 49th
State-Local Tax Burden (2016) -- 46th 34th 6th 1st
Avg. U-3 Unemployment Rate (2000-17) 6.4% 5.8% 6.3% 7.7% 6.2%
Avg. U-6 Underutilization Rate (2003-17) 11.6% 10.5% 12.0% 14.3% 11.1%
Avg. Labor Force Participation Rate (2000-17) 65.0% 66.1% 61.7% 64.6% 62.1%
Avg. Employment-Population Ratio (2000-17) 61.0% 62.3% 58.0% 59.9% 58.3%
Avg. Emp-Pop 25-54 year old Ratio (2000-17) 77.6% 77.3% 77.5% 75.2% 76.1%
Total Civilian Emp (12/07-12/17), exclude TX +5,723,000 +2,024,000 +979,000 +1,564,000 +132,000
Total Nonfarm Emp (12/07-12/17), exclude TX +7,424,000 +1,790,000 +728,000 +1,523,000 +804,000
Avg. Top 10% Income Shares (2000-15) 47.8% 47.0% 55.0% 50.2% 57.1%
Supplemental Poverty Measure (2014-16) 14.7% 14.7% 18.7% 20.4% 16.0%
66%
9%
64%
7%
62%
5%
60%
56% 1%
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
8,000,000
6,500,000 U.S. MINUS TEXAS:
+6,745,000
5,000,000
TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
3,500,000
2,000,000
500,000 TEXAS:
+2,163,000
-1,000,000
-2,500,000
U.S. minus Texas civilian
-4,000,000 employment wasn’t
-5,500,000 positive until January 2015
-7,000,000 and didn’t surpass Texas
until November 2015.
-8,500,000
N
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 12/2017
5,000,000
3,500,000
TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
2,000,000
500,000 TEXAS:
+2,163,000
-1,000,000
-2,500,000
U.S. minus Texas nonfarm
-4,000,000 employment wasn’t
-5,500,000 positive until September
2014 and didn’t surpass
-7,000,000
Texas until March 2015.
-8,500,000
N
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 12/2017
4% 4%
ANNUAL NONFARM JOB GROWTH RATE
2% 2%
0% 0%
-2% -2%
-8% -8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
9% NY: 4.6% 9%
7% 7%
5% 5%
3% 3%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
Mostly Lower Unemployment Rates
in Texas Since Great Recession
Source: Dallas Fed, Texas Economy Starts 2018 Firing on All Cylinders
Texas’ Labor Force Participation Rate
Remains Above Others Since 2009
APRIL 2018
68% U.S.: 62.8% CA: 62.1% 68%
TX: 63.8% FL: 59.4%
NY: 60.6%
66% 66%
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
64% 64%
62% 62%
60% 60%
58% 58%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
Texas' Employed Population Rate
Remains Above Others Since 2008
66% 66%
April 2018
64% U.S.: 60.3% CA: 59.5% 64%
TX: 61.2% FL: 57.1%
NY: 57.7%
EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO
62% 62%
60% 60%
58% 58%
56% 56%
54% 54%
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
AVERAGE 2003-17
U.S.: 77.6% CA: 75.2%
Employment Population Ratio: 25-54 Years
80% 80%
TX: 77.3% FL: 77.5%
NY: 76.1%
78% 78%
76% 76%
74% 74%
72% 72%
70% 70%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS.
Diversified Texas Economy Continues
Creating Jobs in Most Sectors
55% 55%
50% 50%
45% 45%
40% 40%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Mark Frank, Sam Houston State University
Texas Economic Challenges
Mining industry 1980s:
21% of real private economy; 5% of labor force
Mining industry today:
~10% of real private economy; ~2% of labor force
More diversification from market activity, NAFTA,
pro-growth policies
Still, slower global growth & federal government
policies may be impediments
But federal cuts in taxes and regulation boost
growth
4 million barrels of oil/day is highest
since at least 1981
$167 $177
$170
$160 $168 THE BUDGET COULD BE $16 BILLION LESS
UNDER TPPF'S REFORMS, SAVING FAMILIES
$158 OF FOUR ABOUT $2,000 PER YEAR.
$150
$139
$140 $146
$130 $124 $135
$120
2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19*
Source: Legislative Budget Board's Fiscal Size-Up and authors' calculations. *indicates
Note: Find explanation here.
*Includes delayed $1.8 billion Proposition 7 transportation payment
Note: Find explanation here.
2018-19 Total Approps: $218.4 B
with $1.8 B transportation fund delay
(4.46% increase)
$58.5 B,
$71.8 B, Other $79.5 B,
Federal Health &
Funds $106.6 B, Human
General Services
Revenue
Email: vginn@texaspolicy.com
Website: www.texaspolicy.com
Twitter: @vanceginn