Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Martin Byford
RMIT University
Joshua Gans
University of Melbourne
September 2010
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The matter went all the way to the High Court of Australia with the
anti-competitive agreement case upheld.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The matter went all the way to the High Court of Australia with the
anti-competitive agreement case upheld.
0 50 100
Rural Press and Waikerie
0 50 100
Rural Press and Waikerie
0 50 100
Entry by the River News
0 50 100
Entry by the River News
0 50 100
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Ian Law, Rural Press, 7 April 1998 Margin
The Threat
0 50 100
The Threat
0 50 100
The Response
0 50 100
The Response
0 50 100
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The Supreme Court held that parallel conduct alone does not
create a plausible inference of an illegal arrangement.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The Supreme Court held that parallel conduct alone does not
create a plausible inference of an illegal arrangement.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The Supreme Court held that parallel conduct alone does not
create a plausible inference of an illegal arrangement.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may
produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements are
easy to detect.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may
produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements are
easy to detect.
Green and Porter (1984) show that firms may employ temporary
punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may
produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements are
easy to detect.
Green and Porter (1984) show that firms may employ temporary
punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may
produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements are
easy to detect.
Green and Porter (1984) show that firms may employ temporary
punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.
Athey, Bagwell and Sanchirico (2003) show that firms may keep prices
rigid to assist in preserving the stability of a collusive outcome.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may
produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements are
easy to detect.
Green and Porter (1984) show that firms may employ temporary
punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.
Athey, Bagwell and Sanchirico (2003) show that firms may keep prices
rigid to assist in preserving the stability of a collusive outcome.
Collusion at
Fershtman and Pakes (2000) use a semi-collusive Markov perfect the Extensive
equilibrium to isolate collusion on a single dimension. Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Did not consider the possibility that collusion might involve market
forbearance.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The game has an infinite number of periods. All firms have identical
discount rate, δ. Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Timing
Timing
Period t
Timing
Participation
Stage
Period t
Timing
Participation
Stage
Participation Market
Stage Stage
Participation Market
Stage Stage
Instantaneous
Period t State Revealed
Profits Realised
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Contested
Firm 3
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
� � � � �
∗
GS
nj π (2) − c
j�=i
δ = max � � � � �
i∈I ni π ∗ (1) − π ∗ (I) + j�=i nj π ∗ (2) − π ∗ (I) − c
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Initial Deviation (t = 1)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Contested
Firm 3
Initial Deviation (t = 1)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Contested
Firm 3
Grim Strategy Enforcement (t ≥ 2)
Contested
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The value of δ critical for the stability of the cartel is decreasing in the
entry cost c as barriers to entry decrease the returns to a deviation.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The value of δ critical for the stability of the cartel is decreasing in the
entry cost c as barriers to entry decrease the returns to a deviation.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The value of δ critical for the stability of the cartel is decreasing in the
entry cost c as barriers to entry decrease the returns to a deviation.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Contested
Firm 3
Initial Deviation (t = 1)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Contested
Firm 3
Initial Deviation (t = 1)
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Contested
Firm 3
Multilateral Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
3
1
2 Contested 1
3 3
Firm 3
3 2
1 2
1 2
Tit-for-Tat Response (t = 2)
� ∗ ∗
� � ∗ ∗
� � ∗ ∗
�
Loss in Period 2 2 π (1) − π (3) 2 π (1) − π (3) 2 π (1) − π (3)
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
For each pair of firms {i, j}, if firm i is present in at least one of firm
j’s markets, and firms i and j are not present in all of each others
markets, then both firms enter all of each others markets.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
For each pair of firms {i, j}, if firm i is present in at least one of firm
j’s markets, and firms i and j are not present in all of each others
markets, then both firms enter all of each others markets.
Contested
Firm 3
Heavy Handed Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
2 Contested 1
Firm 3
2
Tit-for-Tat Response (t = 2)
� ∗ ∗
� � ∗ ∗
�
Loss in Period 2 2 π (1) − π (2) 2 π (1) − π (2)
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
For each pair of firms {i, j}, if firm i is present in at least one of firm
j’s markets, and firms i and j are not present in an equal number of
each others markets, then the firm in the fewest of its rival’s contests
enters additional contests sufficient to equalise cross participation.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
For each pair of firms {i, j}, if firm i is present in at least one of firm
j’s markets, and firms i and j are not present in an equal number of
each others markets, then the firm in the fewest of its rival’s contests
enters additional contests sufficient to equalise cross participation.
Contested
Firm 3
Proportional Response Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
2 Contested
Firm 3
Tit-for-Tat Response (t = 2)
Contested
Firm 3
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
� � �
∗
n
j�=i j π (2)
δM L = max � � �
i∈I ni π ∗ (1) − π ∗ (I) − n j π ∗ (I)
j�=i
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
� � �
∗
n
j�=i j π (2)
δM L = max � � �
i∈I ni π ∗ (1) − π ∗ (I) − n j π ∗ (I)
j�=i
� � �
∗
n
j�=i j π (2)
δ HH = δ P R ≥ max � � �
i∈I ni π ∗ (1) − π ∗ (I) − n j π ∗ (2)
j�=i
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
1
Initial Deviation (t = 1)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Gain in Period 1
π ∗ (2)
1
Initial Deviation (t = 1)
Firm 1 Firm 2
1
Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
1
Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
2 1
Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Gain in Period 2
π ∗ (2)
2 1
Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Gain in Period 2
π ∗ (2)
Loss in Period 2
π ∗ (1) − π m (2)
2 1
Response (t = 2)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Gain in Period 2
π ∗ (2)
2 1
Return to the Equilibrium Path (t = 3)
Firm 1 Firm 2
2 1
Return to the Equilibrium Path (t = 3)
Firm 1 Firm 2
Introduction
The Model
�
π ∗ (2)
δ ≥ max m ∗ m
,
π (1) − π (2) − π (2)
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
� �
π ∗ (2) −π m (2)
δ ≥ max m , ∗
π (1) − π (2) − π (2) π (1) − π ∗ (2) − π m (2)
∗ m
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Implications for Anti-Trust Policy
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The theory provides new insights into where we may find a collusive
Collusion at
agreement operating. the Extensive
Margin
Management Complicity in Multi-Market Collusion
Management Complicity in Multi-Market Collusion
Firm Level
Management Complicity in Multi-Market Collusion
Firm Level
WA NSW SA
Management Complicity in Extensive Margin
Collusion
Firm Level
WA NSW SA
Management Complicity in Extensive Margin
Collusion
Firm Level
WA NSW SA
Monopoly Monopoly
Management Complicity in Extensive Margin
Collusion
Firm Level
WA NSW SA
Firm Level
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Firm 1 Firm 2
Firm 3
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Firm 1 Firm 2
ACCC
Firm 3
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Firm 1 Firm 2
Competition ACCC
Bureau
Firm 3
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Firm 1 Firm 2
Competition ACCC
Bureau
Firm 3
Competition
Commission
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Firm 1
Competition
Bureau
Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion
Firm 1 Firm 2
Competition ACCC
Bureau
Firm 3
Competition
Commission
Beer or Soft Drink Market
Beer or Soft Drink Market
Retail Sales
Beer or Soft Drink Market
Restaurant Chain B
Bar A
Retail Sales
Bar B
Convenience Store B Vending Machine Location A
Sports Ground
Restaurant Chain C
Entertainment Venue
Collusive Fringe
Firm 1 Firm 2
Entertainment Venue
Uniting Frameworks:
Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive
Margins
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
All MPE’s are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of the
unified framework.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
All MPE’s are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of the
unified framework.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
All MPE’s are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of the
unified framework.
If the firms collude at the intensive margin of both markets they each
receive πC from each market while deviating nets a firm πD.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
All MPE’s are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of the
unified framework.
If the firms collude at the intensive margin of both markets they each
receive πC from each market while deviating nets a firm πD.
π ∗ (2)
δ GS = ∗ Collusion at
π (1) − π ∗ (2)
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
All MPE’s are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of the
unified framework.
If the firms collude at the intensive margin of both markets they each
receive πC from each market while deviating nets a firm πD.
π ∗ (2) πD − πC
δ GS = ∗ δ IM = D Collusion at
π (1) − π ∗ (2) π − π ∗ (2) the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
A firm can either deviate in the participation or market stage but not
both. Punishments are carried out across all markets
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
A firm can either deviate in the participation or market stage but not
both. Punishments are carried out across all markets
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The temporary punishments set out in the paper persist for exactly
one period.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The temporary punishments set out in the paper persist for exactly
one period.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
The temporary punishments set out in the paper persist for exactly
one period.
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model
Collusion at
the Extensive
Margin
Introduction
The Model