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This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case,

"AMERICAN GREETINGS" (Case 43)

6-Feb-13
Copyright (C) 2012, by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation.
Exhibit 1
AMERICAN GREETINGS
American Greetings Share Price (Monthly Close)

Closing Adjusted Price for American Greetings Shares


Dec-09 $21
$30 Jan-10 $17
Feb-10 $18
Mar-10 $20
Apr-10 $23
$25 May-10 $22
Jun-10 $18
Jul-10 $20
Aug-10 $18
$20 Sep-10 $18
Oct-10 $19
Nov-10 $19
Dec-10 $22
$15 Jan-11 $21
Feb-11 $21
Mar-11 $23
Apr-11 $24
$10 May-11 $23
Jun-11 $23
Jul-11 $22
Aug-11 $21
$5 Sep-11 $18
Oct-11 $16
Nov-11 $17
Dec-11 $13
$0
Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-
11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11
Exhibit 2
AMERICAN GREETINGS
American Greetings Income Statement (USD millions; As of December 2011; Fiscal year ends February of subsequent year)

2008 2009 2010 2011 (Est)


(Ends Feb 2012)
Total American Greetings Figures
Total Revenue 1,691 1,636 1,593 1,677
Material, Labor, and Other Pruduction Costs 810 713 682 743
Selling, Distribution, and Marketing Expenses 619 508 478 526
Administrative and General Expenses 226 276 261 258
Goodwill and Other Intangible Asset Impairments 290 0 0 0
Other operating expenses 1 0 3 (6)
Operating Income (253) 139 175 157
Net Interest and Other Non Operating Expenses 22 18 19 28
Income Before Income Tax Expense (275) 121 156 129
Income Tax Expense (47) 39 69 47
Net Income (228) 82 87 82

Earnings Per Share (Basic) (4.89) 2.07 2.18 2.22


Dividends per Share 0.60 0.36 0.56 0.60
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (Millions) 46.5 39.5 40.0 38.50

By Business Unit
Operating Segment Net Sales
North American Social Expression Products 1,095 1,235 1,191 1,215
International Social Expression Products 271 254 262 344
Retail Operations 179 12
AG Interactive 83 80 78 68

Operating Segment Earnings


North American Social Expression Products 70 236 218 148
International Social Expression Products (78) 17 20 20
Retail Operations (19) (35)
AG Interactive (162) 11 14 14

Total Revenue by Product Category


Everyday Greeting Cards 704 764 753 823
Seasonal Greeting Cards 357 369 377 408
Gift Packaging 240 221 223 239
Other Revenue 44 38 32 32
All Other Products 345 244 207 176

Source: Company accounts; Management and case writer estimates


f subsequent year)
Exhibit 3
AMERICAN GREETINGS
American Greetings Balance Sheet (USD millions; Fiscal year end Febraury 28 of subsequent year)

2009 2010 2011 (Est)


(Feb 2010) (Feb 2011) (Feb 2012)

Cash and Cash Equivalents 138 216 172


Trade Accounts Receivable 136 120 130
Inventories 164 180 190
Prepaid Expenses 148 128 131
Other Current Assets 94 57 54
Total Current Assets 679 701 677

Net Property, Plant and Equipment and Other Assets 850 832 859
Total Assets 1,529 1,533 1,536

Debt Due within One Year 1 - -


Accounts Payable 95 87 87
Other Current Liabilities 272 255 255
Current Liabilities 369 343 343

Long-term Debt and Other Liabilities 525 441 441


Shareholders' Equity 636 749 752
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 1,530 1,532 1,536

Source: Company accounts; Management and case writer estimates


Exhibit 4
AMERICAN GREETINGS
Total U.S. Greetiongs Cards Sales (Actual and forecast estimation)

Sales at current prices Index


$million % annual change 2005 = 100
2005 6,537 100
2006 6,420 -1.8 98
2007 6,285 -2.1 96
2008 6,266 -0.3 96
2009 6,149 -1.9 94
2010 5,935 -3.5 91
2011 (Est.) 5,838 -1.6 89
2012 Est.) 5,711 -2.2 87
2013 (Est.) 5,596 -2.0 86
2014 (Est.) 5,478 -2.1 84
2015 (Est.) 5,359 -2.2 82

Source: Mintel/based on U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Census


Exhibit 5
AMERICAN GREETINGS
Feelings about e-cards—usage change among 2000 respondants, by age, Oct. 2010

All By Age Category


18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

In the last year I have sent more e-cards than I used to 22% 17% 26% 20% 22% 21% 24%

In the last year I have sent fewer e-cards than I used to


because I send greetings over social networking sites such as 20% 26% 27% 21% 19% 15% 13%
Facebook

Source: Mintel
Exhibit 6
AMERICAN GREETINGS
Comparable Firms (End of 2011, Millions Except Share Price)

Shares
Share Price Outstanding Total Cash Total Debt Revenue EBITDA

American Greetings 12.51 38.32 86 235 1,660 204


Blyth 56.80 8.22 182 101 984 48
Central Garden & Pet 8.16 48.04 28 461 1,650 109
Consolidated Graphics 48.28 10.24 7 197 1,050 122
CSS Industries 19.92 9.73 10 0 453 30
Deluxe 22.76 50.93 31 742 1,420 359
Fossil 79.36 61.79 288 15 2,570 525
Lancaster Colony 69.34 27.26 162 0 1,090 156
McCormick & Company 50.42 133.05 73 1,250 3,700 650
McGraw-Hill 44.97 278.00 973 1,200 6,250 1,670
Meredith 32.65 44.79 26 250 1,350 240
RR Donnelley & Sons 14.43 178.50 450 345 10,610 1,290
Scholastic 29.97 31.05 114 215 1,950 189
Scotts Miracle-Gro 46.69 60.83 128 1,060 2,820 391
Tupperware Brands 55.97 56.13 138 621 2,580 431

Moody's
S&P Bond Bond
ROA ROE Beta Rating Rating

American Greetings 7% 11% 1.63 BB+ Ba2


Blyth 4% 9% 1.60
Central Garden & Pet 5% 5% 1.55 B3
Consolidated Graphics 5% 10% 1.45
CSS Industries 4% 2% 1.36
Deluxe 13% 55% 1.85 B B1
Fossil 19% 28% 1.62
Lancaster Colony 14% 19% 0.42
McCormick & Company 9% 24% 0.24 A- A2
McGraw-Hill 14% 44% 0.99
Meredith 7% 15% 1.75
RR Donnelley & Sons 5% -7% 2.02
Scholastic 6% 8% 1.04 BB-
Scotts Miracle-Gro 10% 20% 0.96
Tupperware Brands 12% 34% 1.52 Baa3

Source: Yahoo! Finance


Exhibit7
AMERICAN GREETINGS
American Greetings Operating Performance (For fiscal year end February 28 of subsequent year)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Revenue growth 0% -7% -1% -5% -3% -2% 7%
Operating margin 8% 2% 5% -1% 6% 9% 9%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Revenue growth Operating margin


-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Revenue growth Operating margin


2011
2011
Exhibit 8
AMERICAN GREETINGS
Capital Markets Data

Yield
30-day Treasury Bill 0.1%
10 year Treasury Bond 2.8%

10-year Corporate Bonds of Industrial Companies


AAA 2.8%
AA 2.9%
A+ 3.2%
A 3.3%
A- 3.5%
BBB+ 3.8%
BBB 4.1%
BBB- 4.6%
BB+ 5.8%
BB 6.5%
BB- 6.5%
B+ 6.8%
B 8.4%
B- 9.0%

5-year forecast
U.S. Real GDP annual growth rate 3.3%
U.S. GDP annual deflator rate 1.8%
Consumer Price Index annual rate 2.2%

Source: Bloomberg; Value Line Investment Survey