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Rebuilding A Portfolio
Will Take Time, Effort
By Andrew Leckey Determine how much you need
San Gold 2008 – What A Year! Successful Investing to save and invest regularly to get
San Gold 2009 Looks Even Better your overall assets back on track.
Get over it. Move ahead. Deferred spending is still the major
That’s the tough-love prescription component in wealth-building.
for investors debilitated by the “Decide if your pool of assets
economic and financial downturn. is still enough, and if not, take
Yesterday’s gone, so deal realistically action either by doing more saving
with the world before you. and investing, or by cutting your
As you begin to rebuild your spending,” Capelli Dimitroff said.
savings and investments, take a “With U.S. equity markets down
Ur-Energy – The Right People, deep breath and revisit the value more than 30 percent, you have to
of every holding that you own. Too ask yourself if you could sustain
The Right Projects, The Right many Americans are still stuck in another loss like that, because, if
Proceeds, Right Now avoidance mode. not, it is time to start ratcheting
“Folks won’t even look at their down equity exposure by selling
AURIZON MINES LTD. investment statements because some stocks.”
Gold Producer Aurizon Mines Is they’re so worried and upset about For the fixed-income component
Utilizing Cash Resources to the market, and that is a mistake,” of your portfolio, she recommends
Grow Production Profile; Strong Cash said Marilyn Capelli Dimitroff, Treasury inflation-protected
Flow, Exploration Potential a certified financial planner and securities, known as TIPS, whose
president of Capelli Financial returns are indexed to compensate
MINEFINDERS CORPORATION LTD. Services Inc. in Bloomfield Hills, bondholders for inflation. And brave
Minefinders Producing Gold and Mich. “Stop thinking about history investors should at least consider
Silver at Flagship Dolores Mine and where your investments were some discount-priced stocks.
MINERA ANDES INC. a year ago, because what you have “There’s less risk in the stock
now is what you have.” market now than when the Dow
Minera Andes Doubles Production
Although you can assume invest- Jones industrial average was at
at San José Project ment values will revive at some 14,000 and everybody loved it,” said
VELOCITY MINERALS LTD. point, your projections for the future Capelli Dimitroff, who recommends
Velocity Minerals Advancing should consider current figures. In a portfolio diversified among U.S.
Significant Molybdenum particular, go over 401(k) and other and foreign stocks, large- and
Properties In British Columbia retirement accounts to see how your small-cap stocks, and growth and
retirement prospects look. Continued on page 21
I meet personally with the leading investment
advisers and hear their recommendations for profiting
in today's markets. Where do you get your advice?
Steve Forbes
The Money Shows have
President, CEO and
Editor-in-Chief, Forbes been my financial
Will President Obama See the education for ten years.
Light on Money and Taxes? I make decisions with
What Happens Now? confidence from what
Gary Shilling I’ve learned.
President
A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc. Vernelle Puerta,
When Will We Get Out of Carmichael, California
This Mess?
Robert McTeer
Former President
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
The Financial Meltdown and
Its Aftermath
Dennis Gartman
Editor and Publisher
The Gartman Letter
Between Barack and a Hard Place:
What's the New Investment World
Going to Look Like?
Bernie Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO
Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Bull or No Bull?
William Isaac
Managing Director
Secura Group, LLC
World Economic Crisis and
Rebound Panel
Standard & Poor’s THE OUTLOOK they continue to supply the carbon fibers used in
55 Water St., New York NY 10041. building the largest wind turbines. But automotive
1 year, 48 issues, $298. components are gaining share, and production costs
are beginning to come down. The company’s stock
www.outlook.standardandpoors.com. has been absolutely crushed, falling from the $35 per
One to watch: Johnson & Johnson share range when gas was $4 for a gallon, to around
Lisa Sanders: “Fourth-quarter operating earnings $6 per share recently.
of $0.94 a share vs. $0.88 a year ago was $0.01 above The difficult lies in the fact that supply for carbon
one estimate. Revenue fell 4.9%, drug sales fell fibers is rapidly expanding, and pricing pressure
11%, and medical device sales declined 1.9%, while and gross margin compression are risks in 2009 and
consumer sales rose 1.2%. After some $0.03 to $0.05 beyond. Zoltek’s most lucrative market remains the
dilution from the Mentor acquisition, Johnson & alternative energy sector, particularly next-generation
Johnson (JNJ: 56) expects 2009 earnings of $4.45 wind turbines which have replaced fiberglass for
to $4.55 compared with $4.55 in 2008. While we note carbon fiber. The company has contracts with two of
Johnson & Johnson’s lead positions in key health the world’s leading wind turbine makers. Investors
care markets, and robust R&D pipeline, we see might want to take notice of carbon’s prospects.”
2009 results impacted by foreign exchange, weak ****************
economies, and greater competition. We lowered our
target price on JNJ by $10 to $65, which is a peer-level Interinvest REVIEW & OUTLOOK
14.4 times our 2009 estimate of $4.50.” P.O. Box 51462, Boston, MA 02205.
*************** Monthly, 1 year, $125. www.interinvest.com.
THE CONTRARY INVESTOR Becoming favorable towards
309 South Willard St., Burlington VT. equities but only in specific groups
Monthly, 1 year, $125. Dr. Hans Black: “Given the very rapid declines that
we have now seen worldwide, our overall strategy is
Carbon poised to make inroads to become more favorable toward equities, but only in
as a critical component of new cars specific groups. We currently favor healthcare, quite
Alex Seagle: “Twice in the Contrary Investor’s a number of which we consider to be quite cheap,
sweet, short life has he entered into the curious love/ technology companies, as well as communication
hate relationship that is found in owning an Italian companies and several special situations in the food,
sports car, specifically two 1974 Alfa Romeo’s. So natural resources and energy sector. Notable stocks
it was with some interest that we noted the recent in our opinion and worth accumulating are Biogen,
introduction of the Alfa 8C Competizone – a limited Schering-Plough, Conagra Foods, Incyte, Novell and
run of 500 costing around $265,000 per copy. One of Sycamore Networks. Microsoft and El Paso also look
the distinguishing features of the car is the extensive attractive to us. We would avoid equities in emerging
use of carbon fiber, as opposed to steel, throughout markets as there is likely to be further risk in that
the vehicle. sector.”
Carbon fiber has an interesting history of use in
cars. Back in the mid-1970s, right after the famous
oil embargo, Ford Motor, through its aerospace
division, built an all-carbon composite LTD, showing
tremendous weight savings, albeit at a very high cost,
considering that the only fiber vehicle at the time
was an expensive aerospace grade. For most of this
period, pioneers in Formula One auto racing led the
way in moving from aluminum to carbon fiber. Now
with carmakers struggling to produce vehicles with
better mileage, carbon appears poised to make serious
inroads as critical component of new cars.
P.O. Box 917179, Longwood, FL 32791
Two companies positioned to benefit are Zoltec
(407) 682-6170
Companies, Inc. (Nasdaq: ZOLT), and Toray Group
(Nasdaq Pink Sheets: TRYIF). Both manufacture the Publisher: The Bull & Bear Financial Report
carbon fiber used in automotive, aircraft, and wind Editor: David J. Robinson
turbine production. At Toray, for example, annual The Monetary Digest, 1 year, 12 issues, $88.
production in the carbon fiber market is expected © Copyright 2009 Monetary Digest. Reproduction in whole or
to reach 48,000 tons in 2010, double the amount for in part without written permission is strictly prohibited. The
2005. This huge growth will be attributable to the Monetary Digest publishes investment news and comments of
rapid expansion of aircraft applications including investment advisory newsletters whose thoughts are deemed of
wind turbine blades and CNG (compressed natural interest to subscribers. Neither the information, nor any opinion
gas) tanks in the face of high crude oil prices, as well which may be expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase
as an increase in automotive applications. or sale of any securities or investment referred herein.
Zoltec’s largest application is wind energy as
Leeb’s INCOME PERFORMANCE LETTER Income Portfolio denizen Yum! Brands (YUM). The
P.O. Box 97, Williamsport, PA 17703. U.S. based global operator of KCF, Pizza Hut and
Monthly, 1 year, $72. www.leebincomeletter.com. Taco Bell has more restaurants (nearly 36,000) than
any other company. Yum! Generates 28 percent of its
Climbing the great wall of worry income from China, with sales there set to grow at a
Gregory Dorsey: “There’s been a pronounced 20 percent annual pace in the coming years.
change in the spending habits of consumers in the Despite being the largest restaurant chain in
U.S., Europe and Japan since the financial crisis China, Yum! Brands’ penetration of that market
kicked into high gear last September, with people has a long way to go to reach the saturation
increasingly reluctant to open their wallets and use point. Currently the company operates about
their trusty old credit cards. Some media reports 3,000 restaurants in China, which sounds like
have portrayed the effects of the global slowdown as a staggering number until you consider the size
having dire consequences for the Chinese economy of the Chinese population. For instance, China’s
as well. rapidly growing middle class now numbers more
But the truth is that while the Chinese economy than 300 million.
has slowed from a torrid growth pace, it continues to Yum’s international operations outside of China
expand at a rate we in the West can only envy. That’s are also enjoying strong growth and now represent 26
just one reason why investors should look to China for percent of the company’s revenues. Despite headwinds
investment opportunities. What’s more, two of the stocks from the global recession, Yum’s management expects
in our Growth and Income Portfolio with the highest the company’s profits to expand by at least 10 percent
exposure to China are also paying solid dividends. in 2009 thanks to its international exposure, with
China recently announced that its economy grew faster growth in future years.
at a faster pace in 2007 than previously estimated: Yum! has an impressive record of steady, reliable
13 percent rather than 11.9 percent. The revision earnings gains, considerably fueled by its strong
boosted China’s economy to the world’s third largest growth potential as perhaps the best China play. No
in dollar terms, displacing Germany, after the U.S. wonder Yum’s stock always trades at a premium to
and Japan. the market.
Now China’s output has slowed to a 6-7 percent But the broad market sell-off has pushed Yum’s price
annual rate from 10-11 percent a year ago. But down to a reasonable 14 times probably 2009 earnings.
growth much below that rate is politically untenable So you can now pick up shares at an attractive price
with millions flocking from the countryside to the and collect a 2.6 percent dividend too.”
cities every year. So the country’s leaders have ****************
taken steps to spur growth, recently announcing
plans to spend $586 billion on economic stimulus Steven Halpern’s THESTOCKADVISORS.COM
during the next two years. That figure represents
about 17 percent of the nation’s annual output. Each day, editor Steven Halpern features timely
An equivalent outlay here in the U.S. would top and insightful commentary, market outlooks and
$2.5 trillion. specific stock and fund recommendations from
In addition to opening the government’s pocketbook, the nation’s top newsletter advisors on his unique
China has doubled rural incomes and slashed website TheStockAdvisors.com. Here are a few recent
taxes. And while the Sino economy is still largely postings. (See Editor’s Note for a FREE Special
export oriented, Beijing is taking steps to encourage Report).
domestic consumption, which will favor consumer-
oriented companies operating there. Small cap growth:
Yum! Brands: Tasty Growth
A company ideally situated to benefit is Growth & Opportunity of a lifetime?
“2009 may be the opportunity of a lifetime to
buy small-cap growth stocks; values are among the
lowest levels in 30 years and a small improvement in
fundamentals could spark a significant rise in prices,”
says money manager and CFA Jim Oberweis, Jr.
In The Oberweis Report, www.oberweis.net,
he looks at “three ideas to buck the bad news.”
Here’s his trio of small caps that he see “thriving
despite difficult economic times.”
“In tough economic times, most companies are hit
by weaker consumer demand. But a few companies
benefit from the bad economy.
“A limited group of others operates in niches that
are resistant to the bad economy. And a small number
of companies that should be adversely affected by
the nasty economic headwinds are simply executing
flawlessly and overcoming the challenge.
“From our portfolio, here are examples of each:
TheBullandBear.com
profit from a move towards home diagnostics. Pacific Palisades, CA 90272, says some limits have
Inverness Medical Innovations (NYSE: IMA) been loosened on retirement investing, giving investors
engages in the development of consumer medical an opportunity to buy low.
diagnostic products. Specifically, the company is a For the time being, many investors have been
supplier of consumer pregnancy and fertility tests and scared away from the stock market.
other rapid point-of-care diagnostics. It also offers a However, the amount that can be contributed has
range of vitamins and nutritional supplements. gone up. This provides an opportunity to “buy low”.
Inverness Medical is profiting from the growing Due to cost-of-living adjustments, the Internal
home diagnostic trend. The company has taken its Revenue Service has raised the maximum contribution
products global and is looking to add more monitoring level to $16,500 to a 401(k) plan. Those who are 50 or
systems to its pipeline. Management has a proven older by the end of the year can add another $5,500.
track record in technology and innovation and also And the maximum amount that can be contributed
has a significant equity stake in the company. into a defined contribution plan is $49,000, up from
Potential drivers of growth include growing $46,000 in 2008. With the markets well off their highs
political support for health-care reform; the fact of a few years ago, saving aggressively for retirement
that the health-care system is trending away from would be a good strategy now.
an activity-driven reimbursement system to a Contributions to a Roth IRA are made with after-
quality-driven reimbursement system; the growing tax money, meaning you don’t see any savings now,
importance of wellness testing in reducing overall but the account grows tax free and the withdrawals
health-care costs, and Inverness’s defensive growth- –once you’re 59 ½ or older – are tax free as well.
stock characteristics. Income requirements have also gone down,
In the third quarter ended September 30, 2008, making it easier to qualify for a Roth IRA. Single
Inverness Medical recorded revenues of $438.8 million, filers are eligible to contribute up to $5,000 a year
up from $237.6 million in the third quarter of 2007. The as long as they earn less than $105,000 this year (up
company attributed the increase primarily to revenue from $102,000 in 2008), while married couples can
provided by the health management segment, along contribute if their income is $166,000 or less.
with $63.5 million of incremental revenue contributed Today’s tax rates are on the low side historically,
by recently acquired businesses. The net GAAP loss [and] it is safe to assume that tax rates will be higher
was $3.7 million, or 12 cents per diluted common when you withdraw money from your IRA. Therefore,
share, from a net loss of $3.74 per share for the third anything that you can pay taxes on now and have tax
quarter of 2007. The company reported a cash and free later would seem prudent.
cash equivalent balance of $154 million. Before you dismiss Roth accounts because you
The company is difficult to value, mainly because are ineligible (you are in too high a tax bracket),
most of its growth has come through acquisition. starting in 2010, anyone can convert an IRA (or
As a result, projecting future sales and earnings other traditional retirement account) to a Roth IRA.
can be tricky. Additionally, sales on a GAAP basis The catch is that you would need to pay taxes on the
are negative. An easy way around using traditional amount you are converting. However, if your income
earnings metrics is to look at the company’s cash flows is down, you may be in a lower tax bracket than you
and non-GAAP income. have been or will be in. Also, the rules permit this tax
Here we see that the company actually earned to be paid off in two years instead of one.
$1.27 in 2007 and is expected to earn $1.97 this Finally, the amount of money that can be given away
year. Throughout the past three years, Inverness has tax free to the recipient has increased. This year, single
managed to grow cash flows to $88 million in 2007, people can gift up to $13,000 tax free to any individual,
from $34 million in 2006 and $26 million in 2005. while married couples can gift up to $26,000.
We will use non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) Finally, the Worker, Retiree, and Employer Recovery
estimates to value the stock. This method removes Act of 2008 was signed into law in late December. This
one-time items and acquisition-related costs. We law suspended the minimum required distribution
project that the company will earn $1.98 this year rules for IRA accounts and qualified retirement plans
and grow earnings 29% to $2.56 in 2009. for the 2009 tax year. That means most seniors who
Shares currently trade at ten times our 2009 EPS are 70 ½ or older are not required to withdraw money
estimate, which is shocking. Fair value for such a from their retirement accounts this year.
company is at least 16 times forward earnings, but So, not only will seniors avoid having to pay taxes
we understand the uncertainties in the market place, on the withdrawal, but they can also keep their
as well as the uncertainties commonly associated retirement account intact so it’s better poised to
with acquisitions. recover when the market does.
Accordingly, we are depressing our fair value Editor’s Note: Attend the Las Vegas Money
multiple down to 12.5x, which results in a one-year Show, May 11-14th, 2009 at the Mandalay Bay
target price of $32. Resort. Show Focus: Buy & Hold and Trading. The Las
Vegas Money Show features 100+ leading investment
and economic experts speaking at workshops, panels,
The Up Side of a Down Market and intensive presentations. Monetary Digest readers
David Fried, President, Fried Asset Management, can register for FREE by calling 1-800-970-4355 and
Inc., President, David R. Fried, Inc., DBA, The mentioning Priority Code 013701 or visit the web site
Buyback Letter, 15415 Sunset Blvd., Ste. 200D, at www.LasVegasMoneyShow.com.
10
in 2008 an 84 per cent increase over 2007. SMF may 2008. Its bull market objective is to rise to its 50-day
be making a multimonth double bottom near 75 cents trendline at 55.00. Most recent high is at 29.93. The
reached in December 2007 and again in October 2008. chart is extremely bullish. Buy the May 32.50 calls.
A breakout over $1.60 would confirm this pattern and Place stop loss at 25.00. Buy.
targets would be at a minimum $2.50. Gold Corp. (NYSE: GG; $31.51) fell to its low at
Lake Shore Gold Corp. (TSX: LSG; $1.32) is a 14.75 in late October 2008. Recovery has not only
miner in Canada in the Timmins area of Ontario but been sharp, but the probability of any break to a new
also with properties in Quebec near Noranda. low is mathematically nil. A rally above 32.50 breaks
LSG recently reported excellent results for its above its 50-day line and gives the stock a shot at its
Thunder Creek property in the Timmins area. LSG 62.00 high. Now roll the April 30.00 calls into the July
is now breaking out over its 40 week moving average 35.00 calls. Raise stop loss to 27.00. Buy.
a positive development. There may be a little more Goldfields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI; $11.63) fell to
work to do to form a bottom but the outlook for LSG its low at 5.00 in October of 2008. Initial rebound
is quite positive. off the low took the stock to the 10.00 level. I said
Our third pick is San Gold Corp. (TSX.V: SGR; here in the January 15 issue that anything higher
$1.31, www.sangoldcorp.com) a junior miner with pushed above a double top and anything above 20.25
major properties in the Rice Lake greenstone belt of records a breakout above its 50-day line will trigger
Manitoba. San Gold has a National Instrument 43- a further rally. Buy the April 12.50 calls. Place stop
101 compliant resource of 1.6 million ounces of gold. loss at 8.00.
SGR has a mill at Rice Lake that has produced in Gold Reserve Inc. (NYSE-Alt: GRZ; $1.05)
the past 1.4 million ounces of gold. SGR has moved The collapse here dropped the stock to 0.25 in late
into production from two mines at its Rice Lake Mill. November of 2008. Anything above 2.15 triggers
SGR has moved up nicely from its October lows and reverse sliding pole to 3.90. No call options are
is currently testing resistance at the 40 week moving available. No stop losses used here. Buy.
average. Look for a bit more work but the outlook for Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY; $12.30) collapsed to
SGR and its technical position tell us we will move its October 2008 low at 5.30. Has more than doubled
higher. www.sangoldcorp.com. since then. I had targets of 12.90 and 14.30. Anything
It has been a very rough year for the mining stocks higher sees this as a $20 stock. Buy the July 15.00
as their collapse has far outpaced the fall in the price calls. Place stop loss at 9.75.”
of gold itself. But many of them are now presenting ***************
bargain prices. With our outlook reaffirmed in 2009,
we believe many of these stocks are now bargains for
the speculative investor.” INTERINVEST REVIEW & OUTLOOK
Editor’s Note: David Chapman is an investment P.O. Box 51462, Boston, MA 02205.
adviser and a technical analyst with Union Securities. Monthly, 1 year, $125. www.interinvest.com.
Mr. Chapman is a regular contributor to Investor’s
Digest of Canada.
Steadily adding positions to
*************** junior and mid-size gold producers
Dr. Hans Black: “Both gold and silver bullion have
THE GRANVILLE MARKET LETTER, P.O. Drawer been trading with a firm bias during the past month.
413006, Kansas City, MO 64141. 1 year, 46 issues, Global investors seem to be justifiably concerned with
$250. www.GranvilleLetter.com. the degree of money creation characterized by actions
in leading central banks. It should be noted that the
Gold stocks to buy now sheer size of the numbers of stimulus programs and/
Joseph Granville: “Got out of gold at 1002.62 on or guarantee programs is staggering. In the United
March 17, 2008. Went back in at 730.30 on October Kingdom, for example, the total potential size of the
24th. I assigned an objective of 900.00. If it can better bank guarantee program is close to £1 Trillion, or
that level then I think we have a shot at the old March more than six times the per capita size of a similar
17th high. If it can’t make it, then I would have to U.S. program. While we have not abandoned our
dump the golds. view that gold might dip in price once again, it is
Crystallex International Corp. (NYSE-Alt: increasingly less likely. We have, therefore, been
KRY; 0.26) stock crashed to 0.17 in November 2008. steadily adding to our positions in junior and mid-size
Next two objectives are 1.40 and 2.40. Anything gold producing companies, which have so incredibly
higher projects to 3.60. No call options are available. been out of favor. It should be noted that past the
No stop loss is used here. Buy. current short-term updrafts, we may still get some
Couer D’Alene (NYSE: CDE; 0.75) followed the further downside probing later on in 2009. Time will
railroad tracks pattern all the way down to 0.42 in tell and a close watch must be kept on the success or
November 2008. Almost doubled since then. Next two lack thereof of global stimulus packages.
objectives are 3.20 and 4.20. No call options available. Our current positions in Newmont and IAMGOLD
No stop loss used here. Buy. remain attractive and should be accumulated on any
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: weakness. In addition, we have been building up out
FCX; $27.92) stock has made a decisive change for interest in Gabriel Resources as well as Orvana, and
the better. Now we have the positive pattern of rising would now also add Intrepid Mines, an Australian
bottoms. Stock saw its low at 17.00 in December of company, to that list.”
12
Disclaimer: This material is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the
specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes and is
not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. References made to third parties
are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Recipients should not regard
it as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The opinions and recommendations are those of the writers and are not necessary
endorsed by The Bull & Bear Financial Report. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and The Bull and
Bear Financial Report is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. All information is correct at the
time of publication, additional information may be available upon request. The companies featured have paid The Bull & Bear Financial Report
a fee for their investor awareness programs. The directors and employees of The Bull & Bear Financial Report do not own any stock in the
securities referred to in this report. The Bull & Bear Financial Report is not affiliated with any brokerage or financial company.
15
Dr. Mark Skousen’s FORECASTS & STRATEGIES, low, (a possibility I fear), I suspect gold shares may
One Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC get hit too. I would be more enthused about the share
20001. Monthly, 1 year, $249. if the GDM/Gold ratio was back under 0.8 or 0.7.
How can I be so bullish on the metal, while voicing
www.MarkSkousen.com. concern about the gold miners shares? I believe this
3 natural resource recommendations gold run is both currency related as well as focused
Dr. Mark Skousen: “I believe it is prudent right on the money printing. I can envision and fear an
now to keep 10% of your portfolio in natural resources. international shock, possibly a Russian default or
I have three recommendations. something like that which could smash equity markets,
First, StreetTracks Gold Index (NYSE: GLD) upset forex trading and push gold up even while the
is above $88. Gold is one of the few investments that miners shares getting dragged down by an S&P crash.
held its own during the financial crisis of 2008. I wouldn’t specifically forecast such a sequence, but it
Second, I recommend Freeport McMoRan (FCX: is a realistic risk that worries me a lot.
$22.81), the world’s largest copper-gold company Scanning the major shares, they’ve come back into
(based in Indonesia). Revenues last year were off gear with each other since the crash and rebound. I
8% to $52 billion, and earnings fell 30% to $3 billion, would stick to the stocks that made higher highs in
causing the stock to lose 60% of its value in 2008. But early 2008 vs. their 2006 tops, and avoid political
with the Fed’s easy money policies, I expect to see a risk of South Africa. GG, AEM and KGC or the GDX
recovery in the global economy later this year, which ETF based on the GDM Index, but wait for the broad
will be positive for copper and gold prices. market sell-off induced pullbacks of at least half their
Finally, I recommend Direxion Trends Strategy recent rebounds.
Fund (DXCTX: $32.39), a no-load mutual fund that I believe Silver is starting to acquire some “poor
goes either long or shot in six commodity sectors man’s gold” play, that’s likely to expand/if/as/when
(grains, precious metals, industrial metals, livestock, gold breaks its Mar’’ 08 peak at $1034 (basis Comex
etc). Due to complex geopolitical issues, the fund will Near Active).”
only go long or be neutral in energy stocks, since it ***************
does not do any shorting of the energy sector.
The Direxion Commodity fund uses a simple, THE ADEN FORECAST
seven-month moving average price. So far, its P.O. Box 790260, St. Louis, MO 63179.
technique has worked well, and made money last
year. The minimum investment is only $1,000, if you Monthly, 1 year, $250. Includes weekly updates.
buy DXCTX through any major discount brokerage www.adenforecast.com.
firm, such as Charles Schwab or E-Trade.” Gold could be embarking on
***************
the start of a great bull market rise
DELIBERATIONS on World Markets, P.O. Box Mary Anne & Pamela Aden: “Gold is approaching
its record high area. The ongoing current A rise that
182, Adelaide St. Station, Toronto, ON M5C started last November is the strongest in this bull
2J1. 1 year, 18 issues, $225. Introductory Trial: market and the strongest since 1999. Since this is
4 issues, US$49. an abnormally strong ‘A’ rise in an abnormal world
Gold run is both currency related recession, if gold reaches a new record high above
$1004, gold is most likely embarking on the start of
and focused on the money printing a great bull market rise. The eight year cyclical low
Ian McAvity: “In my Zurich, Switzerland speech on will then have been last November’s low. Gold could
Feb. 9th, I was more bullish on gold and silver than then jump to the $1200 level as its next target. Keep
I’ve been in several years, and I emphasized silver, an eye on $910 as gold’s ‘A’ rise is very strong above
piggy-backing on expected gold price strength. The it. Gold’s indicator is now topping in a high area, and
Gold/Silver ratio has shown a range of 50:1 to 80:1 while it could stay topping a while longer, it’s saying
in recent years, and coming off the low side, it had that gold’s strong rise could end soon. Silver is also
turned up and looked likely to try for 50:1 once again. bouncing up following gold. It quickly rose to its 65
(The ratio is gold divided by silver…at $1200 gold that week moving average but if it closes back above it at
would imply $24 silver, i.e. one ounce of gold could be $14.60, it would be a very bullish sign. Silver is very
acquired for just 50 ounces of silver, for an example.) strong above $12.90. Gold and silver shares are rising
My enthusiasm for gold and silver is not as high and while the XAU index hasn’t been as strong as
for the Gold Miners shares, in part because they lifted gold, it’s still strong above 124, and it has room to rise
their crash lows so far and so fast. Looking at the further. Resource and energy continue to be pressured
Shares to Metal ratios, the Sep/Nov crash sucked all by the weaker global economy. As long as the economy
the oxygen out of them, down to levels not seen since is weak, these will be too. Interesting and a possible
the 2000 bottom. At those levels I’m very bullish on bright sign is the firmness in copper while oil continues
the sector. But they rebounded so quickly, retracting to hold above its December low. If both copper and oil
half or more of their crash, the upside potential runs stay above $1.26 and $33.80, respectively, they will
into the risk of pulling back to test those lows in the continue to bottom. They would begin to look like a
event of a major hit to equity markets in general. rebound rise is at hand once they close above $1.52
If the S&P breaks 10% to 20% below its November and $44, respectively. Keep your positions.”
16
EMERGING GROWTH STOCKS, 102 – 2020 25 kilometers south of the past producing Cluff Lake
Comox St., Vancouver, BC V6G 1R9. 1 year, 8-10 Mine, owned by Areva Resources.
issues, $159. www.EmergingGrowthStocks.ca. Fundamental Resource Corp. (www.researchfrc.
com) has released a report on the company dated
Another way to play the January 21st, valuating the various assets of the
Uranium discovery of the decade company and have come up with a combined
Louis Paquette: “I have been covering Hathor valuation of $1.15 per share. This does not include
Exploration (TSX: HAT; $2.64) for some time now any additional resources added as a result of this
because; a.) Uranium is looking better having moved years extensive drilling program.
far enough down in price and b.) Hathor has made Contact Ryan at 604-683-0911, or toll free at 866-
the most important uranium discovery of the decade, 683-0911 or visit www.terrauranium.com.
with numerous sizeable intersections of well over 1%
uranium so far at their “Midwest NE” discovery in
the Athabasca Basin.
But there is another way to play this and that is
through their smaller partner, Terra Ventures Inc.
Market Outlook
(TSX.V: TAS; $0.50) which holds the 10% carried
interest in the play through to pre-feasibility. I know THE PRIMARY TREND
many readers prefer the explosive leverage of a stock
priced under a dollar vs. a stock priced in multi-
700 North Water St., Milwaukee, WI 53202.
dollars. It also holds some other assets which may not Monthly, 1 year, $80.
be priced into the stock. This may also be a pivotal A Bad Beginning
time to get exposure to this play given the aggressive Barry Arnold: “After the brutal 2008 experienced
drilling program currently underway. by equity investors, January’s bullish first step was
Assets refreshing – and short-lived. The stock market was
1. 10% carried interest in Hathor Exploration’s up by 258 points (as measured by the Dow Jones
Midwest NE Roughrider discovery, Athabasca Industrial Average) on the very first trading day
Basin. As of the closing prices on February 10th of and has been down ever since (although the S&P
$2.51 per share, Hathor currently sports a market 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite both peaked two
cap of $214 Million. At $0.50 per share, TAS has trading days later on January 6th).
a market cap of $26 Million, somewhat more than In fact, by the time the month was over, the DJIA
10% of Hathor’s m/c. This can partly be explained had recorded its worst January in its 113-year history
by the fact that Terra’s interest is “carried’ and that (please see table at right). The –8.84% drubbing in
they don’t need to fork out millions in exploration the Dow in January is the fifth month in a row that
expenses, and partly by Terra’s strong cash positions the stock market is down. The bear market is not only
of roughly $10 Million or $0.20 per share. vicious but relentless.
A new four drill, 22,000 meter drill program got Does a poor start to the year portend further
underway in January. The operator, Hathor, is weakness or a reflex rally? Many market watchers
working its way toward the most prospective, yet cling to the January Barometer (devised by Yale
previously untested “unconformity” zone. Often in the Hirsch in 1972), which states that “as the market goes
Athabasca, this is where the greatest concentration in January, so goes the year.” According to Hirsch’s
of Uranium can be found. Stock Traders Almanac 2009, since 1950, the January
Success here could boost the size of the discovery Barometer (using the S&P 500) has a 74% accuracy
considerably from a currently estimated 30 million rate.
pounds to 100 and send the stocks of both companies Our table, using the DJIA statistics, shows how
through the roof. the stock market performed one month, three months
2. 100% Interest in Lac Kachiwiss & North and one year after the nine worst Januarys in history.
Yellow Cat properties, Quebec. These properties If you were expecting a gangbuster bull rally of +30-
have a historical resource of 11.46 Million pounds 40% after a bruising start, unfortunately you won’t
of Uranium (not 43-101 compliant). The company find the message in these tea leaves. In fact, it’s much
has just completed a drill program as part of the more sobering. In the one-month and three-month
process of bringing this historical resource into 43- short-term statistics, it is hit or miss. Based on the
101 compliant status. I don’t believe the stock price one-year figures, in only three of the nine cases did
reflects the value of this asset. investors actually recoup their January losses and
3. 10% stake in Titan Uranium’s Castle make gains.
project, Athabasca Basin. The property is located Fortunately, the Super Bowl Indicator says 2009
will be an “up” year (since the Pittsburgh Steelers won
and they are an original NFC team). Also, inaugural
SUBSCRIBE TO THE BULL & BEAR FINANCIAL REPORT years where Democrats take or maintain the throne
1-800-336-BULL
have an average gain of +7.31%. And lastly, the
“Decennial Pattern” is bullish, with years ending
in “9” averaging +10.15% over the last 11 decades.
Cheer up!”
17
Gold Producer Aurizon Mines Is Utilizing Cash Resources to AURIZON MINES LTD.
Grow Production Profile; Strong Cash Flow, Exploration Potential NYSE Alternext: AZK • TSX: ARZ
Aurizon is a gold producer with a growth strategy focused on
Contact: David Hall,
developing its existing projects in the Abitibi region of north-
western Quebec, one of the world's most favourable mining President and CEO
jurisdictions and prolific gold and base metal regions, and Suite 3120, 666 Burrard Street
by increasing its asset base through accretive transactions. Vancouver, BC Canada V6C 2X8
Exploration is currently being conducted at Casa Berardi, Toll Free: 888-411-GOLD (4653)
as well as at Aurizon's other gold project, Joanna, and its'
Phone: 604-687-6600
gold/uranium project, Kipawa. Aurizon's combined property
holdings cover in excess of 300 square miles of prospective geology in the Abitibi Fax: 604-687-3932
area of Quebec. Aurizon Mines commenced commercial gold production in second info@aurizon.com
quarter 2007and is expected to produce approximately 150,000 - 155,000 gold www.aurizon.com
ounces in 2009.
Minera Andes Doubles Production at San José Project MINERA ANDES INC.
US OTC: MNEAF • TSX: MAI
Minera Andes has successfully made the
transition from exploration to an exploration Contact:
company that also receives income from a Art Johnson, Investor Relations
discovery made by its geologists. Minera 111 E. Magnesium Rd., Ste. “A”,
Andes' co-owned San Jose silver/gold mine Spokane, WA 99208
in southern Argentina is operating at its expected level, producing about 59,000 Phone: 509-921-7322
ounces of gold and three million ounces of silver on an annualized basis. Minera
Andes receives 49 percent of the value of San Jose's production. Work is well Fax: 509-921-7325
underway to double the output of San Jose, tentatively, at the end of 2008. This Canada: (877) 689-7018
means metal production would increase to about 120,000 ounces of gold and info@minandes.com
six million ounces of silver per year. www.minandes.com
of sandstones. In addition, over the summer, more its ongoing discussions with First Nations groups and
than 746 miles of airborne geophysical surveys Aboriginal-owned business corporations to secure an
were completed in Wyoming. The Company put exploration agreement for the Screech Lake Project
its other U.S. properties, including LC North and in the Thelon Basin, Northwest Territories, which
North Hadsell projects, on hold to further advance would allow the Company to proceed with a re-filing
the development of the Lost Creek Project. In of a drilling proposal.
September, the Company dropped exploration lands
in South Dakota (approximately 72,000 acres) while
Investment
maintaining in excess of 67,000 acres in Wyoming Considerations
and Arizona. An in-house team of geologists continues Despite recent declines in uranium prices, demand
to evaluate the Company’s massive well log and for uranium continues to exceed production. The U.S.
exploration database for generating new exploration alone only produces 8% of the uranium it consumes.
targets. Considering that less than 10 companies supply about
The Bootheel Project, LLC, in which Target 80% of the estimated world’s uranium production,
Exploration & Mining Corp. (“Target”) is earning into and that only eight countries produce almost 60%
a 75% interest over a four-year period, now covers of that uranium, Ur-Energy will play into a rather
a defined area of approximately 10,500 acres. In rarefied company as it joins the ranks of uranium
October, Target confirmed its completion of 93 drill producers. The mining operation, Boberg says, will
holes for a 50,163 foot drilling program. The purpose be relatively low cost and therefore not be affected
of the program was to bring the historic resources by lower uranium prices.
into NI 43-101 compliance. Ur-Energy also sits at a fortuitous confluence
In Canada, Ur-Energy is focused on finding of events – growing demand for uranium in a
“unconformity” uranium deposits, a relatively rare power-starved world, a healthy bank account, and
and extremely high-grade ore deposit. These deposits, an anticipated solid and growing cash flow from
first recognized and discovered in Australia, were production. These conditions present intriguing
later found in Saskatchewan under the Athabasca opportunities for Ur-Energy to acquire new uranium
Basin and in the Thelon Basin in the eastern Arctic. properties from underfunded companies struggling
Ur-Energy holds three exploration properties in the to succeed in a down market.
Thelon Basin and one in Baker Lake Basin. “We won’t go on a buying spree, but if a really
The company’s wholly-owned uranium exploration worthwhile opportunity comes up, we’ll definitely
properties encompass more than 129,000 acres in take a hard look,” says Boberg.
Canada. Land holdings in the Northwest Territories Meanwhile, production planning remains on track.
include the Screech Lake, Gravel Hill and Eyeberry Permitting is nearing completion. The final plant
Properties in the Thelon Basin, as well as the Bugs design is clearing the way for equipment ordering.
Property in Kivallig region, Baker Lake Basin of Boberg says supply contracts should be finalized in
Nunavut. the coming months, the
Several targets were first well field should be
examined and prioritized operating by Q4 2010, and
during the 2008 summer income will begin filling
program at the Bugs Project the company’s coffers. Ur-
located in the Baker Lake Energy is also moving
Basin, Nunavut. Radon forward with “exciting”
sampling techniques, pros- exploration programs on
pecting and rock sampling its multiple properties.
were all utilized. This work, “We have the money to
completed in early August, take us into production,”
led to interpreted areas of says Ur-Energy President
hydrothermal alteration, Ur-energy inc. Bill Boberg. “We have ca-
elevated radioactivity and NYSE Alt US: URG • TSX: URE pable and dedicated people
high radon flux. From late Contact: Bill Boberg, President and CEO with nearly 300 total years
August to mid-September Investor Relations: Dani Wright of direct uranium experi-
2008, a total of 2,905 feet ence in all phases from
10758 W. Centennial Rd., Ste. 200 exploration and develop-
of exploration drilling con-
sisting of six drill holes Littleton, CO 80127 ment to mining. These
was completed. The pro- Toll Free: 866-981-4588 people make up one of the
gram was terminated early Phone: 720-981-4588 • Fax: 720-981-5643 best uranium exploration
due to drilling equipment E-Mail: info@ur-energyusa.com and operational staffs that
problems. Results of the Web Site: www.ur-energy.com exist in the world today.
program are being evalu- Shares Outstanding: 93.2 million And in the very near fu-
ated by the Company’s (as of Sept. 30, 2008) ture, we will be producing
Canadian Exploration of- 52 Week Trading Range: real product from Lost
fice, and drill core assays URG (U.S.): Hi: $1.96 • Low: $0.28 Creek, at the rate of about
are pending. 1 million pounds of ura-
URE (Canada): Hi: C$2.72 • Low: C$0.34
The Company continues nium a year.”
20
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1 year, 14 issues, $295. www.DinesLetter.com.
satisfied or receive a full refund after the first three TDL’s Seasonalities: March
issues or a pro-rated refund at any time during your James Dines: “Februarys are somewhat bullish
subscription. No questions asked. for the DJI, averaging a 0.10% rise in the last 59
1-800-336-BULL
years, but somewhat bearish for the S&P 500 with an
0.11% decline for the same period. It usually follows
whatever the Major trend has been, currently down
To take advantage of our special charter rate call 1-800-336- per the DJI of our 2009 Annual Forecast Issue, but
BULL. Visa or Mastercard accepted. Or send payment to: holding above the November 08 low.
The case for bears has been confirmed by a down
January, per its “barometer.” As noted in our 2009
The Monetary Digest VOL 11-04 Forecast Issue, the 05 Dec 08 low has already been
P.O. Box 917179, Longwood, FL 32791 broken, a negative omen for the year. With the
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higher, which frequently evolves into a market TOP
Credit Card # ___________________________________ either in April or May. In our Research Department’s
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Signature _____________________________________ 37 times and decline 22 times. There have been fewer
Outside North America add $20 per year (remit in U.S. dollars from a U.S. bank) declines in recent years. These stats are comparable
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odd-numbered years, there were 11 risers and only
4 downers, up almost 3 out of 4, favorable for 2009.
Email ___________________________________________ The count for even-numbered years was 9 up and 7
Continued on next page
21
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