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ANALYSIS
YOGA
Pengampu
• Yoga Aribowo, 50%, sebelum UTS
• Narulita Santi, 50%, setelah UTS
• Nilai YA : 50% tugas/kuis mingguan, 50% UTS
• Tidak ada tugas tambahan bagi yang absen,
kecuali ada surat ijin sebelum perkuliahan dan
surat keterangan sakit yang asli
Sebelum UTS
Pokok Bahasan Sub pokok bahasan
Pengenalan ekonomi teknik Konsep
Simple problems – complex problems
Role of Engineering economic analysis
Decision making process Steps of Rational Decision Making
Engineering Decision making Decision making process for engineer
Cost definition
classification
Matematika uang Pengertian cash flow, Metode penyusunan cash flow
Konsep nilai uang terhadap waktu
Bunga, Suku bunga nominal dan efektif
Metode ekuivalensi
Evaluasi investasi Pengertian
Metode kelayakan investasi Net Present Value
Metode kelayakan investasi Annual Equivalent
Evaluasi investasi Metode kelayakan investasi Benefit Cost Ratio
Metode-metode kelayakan investasi Payback Period
Metode kelayakan investasi Discounted Payback Period
Metode kelayakan investasi Internal Rate of Return)
Rational Decision Making
1. Recognize the Problem
The starting point in rational decision making is recognizing that a problem
exists.
• Some years ago, for example, it was discovered that several species of
ocean fish contained substantial concentrations of mercury.
• The decision-making process began with this recognition of a problem,
and the rush was on to determine what should be done.
• Research revealed that fish taken from the ocean decades before and
preserved in laboratories also contained similar concentrations of
mercury. Thus, the problem had existed for a long time but had not been
recognized.
• In typical situations, recognition is obvious and immediate. An auto
accident, an over-drawn check, a burned-out motor, an exhausted supply
of parts all produce the recognition of a problem.
• Once we are aware of the problem, we can solve it as best we can. Many
firms establish programs for total quality management (TQM) or
continuous improvement (CI) that are designed to identify problems, so
that they can be solved.
2. Define the Goal or Objective
Every problems is situation that prevent us from achieving previously
determined goals.
The goal or objective can be a grand, overall goal of a person or a firm.
• For example, a personal goal could be to lead a pleasant and
meaningful life, and a firm's goal is usually to operate profitably.
• The presence of multiple, conflicting goals is often the foundation
of complex problems.
• But an objective need not be a grand, overall goal of a business or
an individual. It may be quite narrow and specific: "I want to pay
off the loan on my car by May," or "The plant must produce 110
MW in the next 2 weeks," are more limited objectives.
• Thus, defining the objective is the act of exactly describing the task
or goal.
3. Assemble Relevant Data
• To make a good decision, one must first assemble good
information.
• In addition to all the published information, there is a vast
quantity of information that is not written down anywhere
but is stored as individuals' knowledge and experience.
• There is also information that remains ungathered. A
question like "How many people in your town would be
interested in buying a zinc-alume roofing?" cannot be
answered by examining published data or by asking anyone
person. Market research or other data gathering would be
required to obtain the desired information.
• From all this information, what is relevant in a specific
decision-making process?
3. Assemble Relevant Data
• Deciding which data are important and which are not maybe a complex
task.
• The availability of data further complicates this task.
• Some data are available immediately at little or no cost in published form;
other data are available by consulting with specific knowledgeable
people; still other data require surveys or research to assemble the
information.
• Some data will be of high quality-that is, precise and accurate, while
other data may rely on individual judgment for an estimate.
• If there is a published price or a contract, the data may be known exactly.
• In most cases, the data is uncertain. What will it cost to build the dam?
How many vehicles will use the bridge next year and in year 2020? How
fast will a competing firm introduce a competing product? How will
demand depend on growth in the economy?
• Future costs and revenues are uncertain, and the range of likely values
should be part of assembling relevant data.
4. Identify Feasible Alternatives
Unless the best alternative is considered, the result will always be suboptimal.
• Two types of alternatives are sometimes ignored. First, in many situations a do-nothing
alternative is feasible. This may be the "Let's keep doing what we are now doing," or the
"Let's not spend any money on that problem" alternative. Second, there are often feasible
alternatives, such as "Patch it up and keep it running for another year before replacing it."
• There is no way to ensure that the best alternative is among the alternatives being
considered. One should try to be certain that all conventional alternatives have been listed
and then make a serious effort to suggest innovative solutions. Sometimes a group of people
considering alternatives in an innovative atmosphere-brainstorming--can be helpful.
• Even impractical alternatives may lead to a better possibility. The payoff from a new,
innovative alternative can far exceed the value of carefully selecting between the existing
alternatives.
• Any good listing of alternatives will produce both practical and impractical alternatives.
• It would be of little use, however, to seriously consider an alternative that cannot be
adopted.
• An alternative may be infeasible for a variety of reasons. For example, it might violate
fundamental laws of science, require resources or materials that cannot be obtained, or it
might not be available in time.
• Only the feasible alternatives are retained for further analysis.
5. Select the Criterion to Determine the
Best Alternative
The central task of decision making is choosing from among
alternatives.
• How is the choice made? Logically, to choose the best
alternative, we must define what we mean by best. There
must be a criterion, or set of criteria, to judge which
alternative is best.
• Now, we recognize that best is a relative adjective on one end
of the following relative subjective judgment:
5. Select the Criterion to Determine the
Best Alternative
There maybe an unlimited number of ways that one might
judge the various alternatives. Several possible criteria are:
• Create the least disturbance to the environment.
• Improve the distribution of wealth among people.
• Minimize the expenditure of money.
• Ensure that the benefits to those who gain from the
decision are greater than the losses of those who are
harmed by the decision
• Minimize the time to accomplish the goal or objective
• Minimize unemployment.
• Maximize profit
5. Select the Criterion to Determine the
Best Alternative
• Selecting the criterion for choosing the best alternative will not be
easy if different groups support different criteria and desire
different alternatives. The criteria may conflict.
• For example, minimizing unemployment may require increasing the
expenditure of money. Or minimizing environmental disturbance
may conflict with minimizing time to complete the project.
• The disagreement between management and labor in collective
bargaining (concerning wages and conditions of
employment)reflects a disagreement over the objective and the
criterion for selecting the best alternative.
• The last criterion-maximize profit-is the one normally selected in
engineering decision making. When this criterion is used, all
problems fall into one of three categories: fixed input, fixed output,
or neither input nor output fixed.
Fixed Input
• The amount of money or other input resources
(like labor, materials, or equipment) are fixed. The
objective is to effectively utilize them. For
example:
• A project engineer has a budget of $350,000
to overhaul a portion of a petroleum refinery.
• You have $300 to buy clothes for the start of
school.
• For economic efficiency, the appropriate criterion
is to maximize the benefits or other outputs.
Fixed Output
• There is a fixed task (or other output objectives
or results) to be accomplished.
Examples:
• A civil engineering firm has been given the job
of surveying a tract of land and preparing a
"record of survey" map.
• You wish to purchase a new car with no
optional equipment.
• The economically efficient criterion for a situation
of fixed output is to minimize the costs or other
inputs
Neither Input nor Output Fixed
• The third category is the general situation, in
which the amount of money or other inputs is
not fixed, nor is the amount of benefits or other
outputs.
Examples:
• A consulting engineering firm has more work
available than it can handle. It is considering
paying the staff for working evenings to
increase the amount of design work it can
perform.
6. Constructing the Model
• At some point in the decision-making process, the various elements must be brought
together. The objective, relevant data, feasible alternatives, and selection criterion must be
merged. For example, if one were considering borrowing money to pay for an automobile,
there is a mathematical relationship between the following variables for the loan: amount,
interest rate, duration, and monthly payment.
• Constructing the interrelationships between the decision-making elements is frequently
called model building or constructing the model. To an engineer, modeling maybe a scaled
physical representation of the real thing or system or a mathematical equation, or set of
equations, describing the desired interrelationships. In a laboratory there may be a physical
model, but in economic decision making, the model is usually mathematical.
• In modeling, it is helpful to represent only that part of the real system that is important to
the problem at hand. Thus, the mathematical model of the student capacity of a classroom
might be
Top down:
berdasarkan data masa lalu, membandingkan dengan produk
sejenis dari produsen lain. Cocok untuk fase awal perkiraan
biaya proyek atau rencana alternatif produk yang akan
diproduksi.
Bottom up:
perkiraan biaya dipecah dalam unit unit kecil yang lebih
detail. Cocok bila proyek ataun produk telah memunyai
spesifikasi detil untuk menentukan produk yang akan
diproduksi.
Jenis Biaya (Type of Cost)
Biaya operasional dihitung berdasar:
Biaya langsung (direct cost)
• Biaya tenaga kerja
• Biaya semua bahan yang digunakan
Biaya tidak langsung (indirect cost)
• Semua biaya yang tidak dimasukkan dalam biaya langsung
• Biaya tenaga kerja yang tidak terlibat langsung dalam proyek
• Biaya kebutuhan pabrik dan perkantoran
• Biaya perawatan, reparasi
• Biaya depresiasi, asuransi, pajak
• Biaya keperluan energi
Terdapat dua komponen biaya produksi
• Biaya tetap (fixed cost = overhead cost)
• Biaya tidak tetap (variable cost = operating cost)
Biaya variabel
Biaya tetap
Kuantitas
• Biro perjalanan menawarkan paket biaya field trip per hari
dengan bus kapasitas maksimal 32 orang
• Biaya peluang (opportunity cost), biaya yang dihitung dari hilangnya pendapatan
akibat mengabaikan proyek lain yang potensial dilaksanakan
• Ilustrasi:
Seseorang telah bekerja dengan gaji Rp7,5 jt per bulan (Rp90 jt per th) ditambah
bonus senilai Rp30 jt per th, memutuskan mendirikan perusahaan dengan neraca
pembukuan setiap akhir tahun selama 3 tahun adalah:
• Sunk cost, biaya yang dikeluarkan sebelum proyek dimulai dan tidak
berkaitan dengan investasi proyek tersebut. Biaya iklan juga dihitung
sebagai sunk cost. Begitu pula dengan mesin atau peralatan produksi yang
diganti sebelum masa ekonomisnya habis.
Ilustrasi:
• Suatu perusahaan menginvestasikan Rp400 jt untuk sebuah mesin bubut
dengan perkiraan nilai ekonomis adalah 10 tahun dan nilai akhirnya
(salvage value) adalah 20 juta. Pada tahun ke-3 mesin tersebut diganti
karena alasan tidak cocok dengan jenis produk baru yang akan diproduksi.
• Maka:
Nilai buku mesin bubut pada saat penggantian adalah Rp400 jt – (3xRp38 jt)
= Rp286 jt. Bila mesin tersebut dapat dijual dengan harga Rp286 jt maka sunk
cost-nya sama dengan nol. Tetapi bila hanya bisa dijual sebesar Rp250 jt,
maka sunk costnya adalah Rp286 jt – Rp250 jt sama dengan Rp36 juta.
Pendapatan (Revenue) dan Keuntungan (Profit)
• Di mana
Pendapatan (Revenue) dan Keuntungan (Profit)
Sebuah perusahaan pembekuan udang memproduksi 36 ribu blok udang
beku per tahun. Biaya tidak tetap untuk produksi tersebut adalah Rp.120.000
dan biaya tetap untuk operasional perusahaan adalah Rp. 3,2 miliar. Bila
harga jual di negara tujuan adalah Rp. 250.000, tentukan:
a)jumlah blok udang beku yang harus dihasilkan untuk menghasilkan
keuntungan sebesar Rp540 juta per tahun,
b)total target pendapatan untuk mencapai target keuntungan pada soal a,
c)jumlah blok minimum agar tercapai titik impas,
d)total pendapatan pada titik impas
Konsep biaya
dalam ekonomi mikro
1 Cf Cv Cf+Cv Cf+Cv d Ct
2 Q dQ
3
4
5
6
Average dan Marginal Cost
Rupiah Marginal cost (MC)
Biaya rata-rata
Average Cost ( AC )
Kuantitas
Long run Average Cost
Rupiah
SRAC1
SRAC3 SRAC5
Kuantitas
Pasar, output dan Prices
Market determinants
Family Demand
Individual Quality
Income Price Market
Quantity Structure
needs
Demand
Supply
Production Supply
Process of Quality
Transportation price
services Quantity
Market orientation
Pricing policy
and
Market
Consumer Producer
Equilibrium and and
mechanism Demand Supply function
Function
Penentuan Titik Impas Usaha (BEP)
MANFAAT
• Tingkat penjualan & keuntungan yang ditargetkan.
• Tingkat penjualan minimum agar penjualan tidak rugi.
• Tingkat sensitivitas harga produk yang ditawarkan.
TP = TC
PxQ = BT + BV x Q
(P - BV) x Q = BT
B
Q pada BEP = --------------
(P - BV)
Price Supply
P1 Kelebihan supply
P0
Kekurangan supply
P2
Demand
Quantity
Contoh perhitungan titik impas
Untuk meningkatkan pendapatan perusahaan Unit Produksi
Pengolahan Susu segar PT X bermaksud mengembangkan produk
baru berupa produk yoghurt.
• Produk tersebut dibuat dalam kemasan plastik dengan harga jual tiap
kemasan adalah sebesar Rp. 3000,-.
• Dari bagian produksi diperoleh data :
• biaya tetap untuk membuat produk Rp. 10 000 000/bln
• biaya variabelnya Rp. 500/ satu satuan volume produk.
Q dalam hal ini adalah jumlah produk minimum pada kondisi titik impas
(BEP).
Rp. Pendapatan
Biaya pokok
12 juta
Biaya tetap
• Harga diasumsikan tetap pada seluruh kisaran (range) produk yang dihasilkan.
• Kenyataannya harga tidak dapat berlaku terus tetap karena pada kondisi tertentu
atau jumlah produk tertentu harga mengalami perubahan.
• Biaya variabel yang dimasukkan dalam perhitungan dianggap sebagai fungsi
linier tetap padahal bisa berubah ubah.
• Sebagai contoh misalnya akan terdapat discount pada biaya variabel untuk suatu
jumlah produksi yang melewati batas tertentu.
• Kapasitas produksi hanya relevan untuk kapasitas produksi yang ada
• Diproyeksikan hanya untuk jangka pendek (short run)
• Perhitungan hanya didasarkan atas satu jenis produk.
Average dan Marginal Cost
Rupiah Marginal cost (MC)
Average Cost ( AC )
Average revenue ( AR )
Marginal revenue ( MR )
Kuantitas
Pasar Monopoli dan Oligopoli
Marginal Pricing
Average Cost ( AC )
P
C
Average revenue ( AR )
Marginal revenue ( MR )
Q Kuantitas
Pasar Persaingan sempurna
Marginal Pricing
Rupiah Marginal cost (MC)
Average Cost ( AC )
P
Average revenue ( AR )
C
Q Kuantitas
Pendapatan (Revenue) dan Keuntungan (Profit)
• Di mana
Pendapatan (Revenue) dan Keuntungan (Profit)
CASH FLOW
CASH FLOW
Pengertian
• Sejumlah uang kas yang keluar dan masuk sebagai akibat dari aktifitas perusahaan.
• Aliran kas yang terdiri dari aliran masuk dan keluar perusahaan serta berapa
saldonya setiap periode.
Hal utama dalam mengatur arus kas adalah memahami dengan jelas fungsi dana
uang yang kita miliki, kita simpan atau investasikan.
Secara sederhana fungsi itu terbagi menjadi 3 macam yaitu:
1. Fungsi likuiditas
Yaitu dana yang tersedia untuk tujuan memenuhi kebutuhan sehari-hari dan dapat
dicairkan dalam waktu singkat relatif tanpa ada pengurangan investasi awal.
2. Fungsi anti inflasi
Yaitu dana yang disimpan guna menghindari resiko penurunan pada daya beli di masa
datang dan dapat dicairkan dengan relatif cepat
3. Capital growth
Dana yang diperuntukkan untuk penambahan kekayaan dengan jangka waktu relatif
panjang.
Aliran kas yang berhubungan dengan suatu proyek dapat dibagi
menjadi tiga kelompok yaitu:
I = 6%
n = 5 th
P =50jt
• Berapa modal yang harus didepositokan jika kita
ingin setelah 5 tahun uangnya menjadi 100 juta?
• P = F(1+i)-n
= 100jt.(1+0,06)-5= 747,258
Soal 1
Output (unit/jam) Total cost (ribu rupiah) Harga penjualan (ribu rupiah/unit)
50 3.000 160
100 5.000 100
150 7.000 90
200 14.000 80
250 20.000 70