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By using Excel, the following data series are obtained :

i 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 2 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 𝑎𝑜 + 𝑎1 𝑥𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̅)2 (𝑦𝑖 − 𝑎𝑜 − 𝑎1 𝑥𝑖 )2

1 0.17 5.10 0.0289 0.8670 6.7654 81.0900 2.7735

2 0.18 5.10 0.0324 0.9180 8.0999 81.0900 8.9992

3 0.19 5.20 0.0361 0.9880 9.4343 79.2990 17.9297

4 0.20 5.87 0.0400 1.1740 10.7688 67.8152 23.9984

5 0.21 8.72 0.0441 1.8312 12.1033 28.9982 11.4467

6 0.22 16.04 0.0484 3.5288 13.4378 3.7442 6.7716

7 0.23 26.35 0.0529 6.0605 14.7722 149.9400 134.0443

8 0.24 31.63 0.0576 7.5912 16.1067 307.1256 240.9721

9 0.25 26.51 0.0625 6.6275 17.4412 153.8840 82.2431

10 0.26 16.68 0.0676 4.3368 18.7757 6.6306 4.3919

11 0.27 10.80 0.0729 2.9160 20.1102 10.9230 86.6789

12 0.28 11.26 0.0784 3.1528 21.4446 8.0940 103.7266

∑ 2.70 169.26 0.6218 39.9918 169.2601 978.6341 723.9761

Table 1: Data Series

𝑥̅ 0.225
𝑦̅ 14.105

𝑎1 133.4476

𝑎𝑜 -15.9207
Table 2

Calculation :

For example, for the first observation ;

Given; 𝑥𝑖 = 0.17 , 𝑦𝑖 = 5.10 , n=12

i) (𝑥𝑖 )2 = (0.17)2 = 0.0289

ii) 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 = (0.17)(5.10) = 0.8670


𝑛 ∑ 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 −∑ 𝑥𝑖 ∑ 𝑦𝑖 12(39.9918)−(2.70)(169.26)
iii) 𝑎1 = 2 = = 133.4476
𝑛 ∑ 𝑥𝑖 2 −(∑ 𝑥𝑖 ) 12(0.6218)−(2.70)2

∑𝑥 2.70
iv) 𝑥̅ = = = 0.225
𝑛 12

∑𝑦 169.26
v) 𝑦̅ = = = 14.105
𝑛 12

vi) 𝑎𝑜 = 𝑦̅ − 𝑎1 𝑥̅ = 14.105 − (133.4476)(0.225) = −15.9207

vii) 𝑎𝑜 + 𝑎1 𝑥𝑖 = −15.9207 + (133.4476)(0.17) = 6.7654

viii) (𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̅)2 = (5.10 − 14.105)2 = 81.0900

2
ix) (𝑦𝑖 − 𝑎𝑜 − 𝑎1 𝑥𝑖 )2 = (5.10 − (−15.9207) − (133.4476)(0.17)) = 2.7735

Then, calculation for (i) until (ix) is repeated for 𝑥𝑖+1 until 𝑥12 . (refer to Table 1)
 Least square fit is given by : 𝑦 = 𝑎𝑜 + 𝑎1 𝑥
𝑦 = 133.4476𝑥 − 15.9207

The regression line is as shown which give the minimum Sr ;

60.00

50.00 y = 133.45x - 15.921


R² = 0.2602
40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
-10.00

-20.00

-30.00

Graph 1: Graph showing regression line

Linear Regression – Quantification of Error

𝐹𝑒𝑠𝑡 = 133.4476𝑥 − 15.9207

The values of St and Sr is obtained by referring to Table 1;

𝑆𝑡 = ∑( 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̅) = 978.6341

𝑆𝑟 = ∑(𝑦𝑖 − 𝑎𝑜 − 𝑎1 𝑥1 )2 = 723.9761

𝑆𝑡 978.6341
𝑆𝑦 = √ =√ = 9.4322
𝑛−1 12 − 1
Standard Error of the Estimate, Sy/x ;

𝑆𝑟 723.9761
𝑆𝑦/𝑥 = √ =√ = 8.5087
𝑛−2 12 − 2

Coefficient of Determination, r2 ;

𝑆𝑡 − 𝑆𝑟 978.6341 − 723.9761
𝑟2 = = = 0.2602
𝑆𝑡 978.6341

Number of observation selected was (n=12) because if the selected number of observation is
less than 10 (n < 10), the coefficient of determination will be lower or equal to zero (r2 ≤ 0)
which means there is no improvement over simply picking the mean (if r2 = 0) and the model
is worse than simply picking the mean (if r2 < 0).