Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Master of Engineering
(Civil Engineering)
2013
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First and foremost, praises and thanks to the Lord God almighty for His showers of blessings.
I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nasser Rostam
Afshar and co-supervisor Dr. Onni Suhaiza Selaman for their excellent guidance, patience,
I want to thank the Department of Civil Engineering UNIMAS and the Faculty of Civil
Engineering UiTM Sarawak for their continuous support and kindness; I have gained so much
knowledge from everyone. Thank you to the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Sarawak
My appreciation also goes to my batch, thank you for being such awesome friends and
classmates. To dearest friends, thank you for the support and encouragement. To my family,
,
ABSTRACT
Rainfall is a random and probabilistic phenomenon that plays a great role in the life of
humans. The study embarks to apply a mathematical modeling in rainfall forecasting for
the Sungai Sarawak basin. Recent study reveals that the FS has the ability to simulate
long-term rainfa'll up to 300 years is viewed as an important finding in the study of rainfall
forecast. Rainfall data was collected from eight rain gauge stations from the Department
of Irrigation and Drainage, Sarawak. The data was then analyzed and prepared for missing
data, consistency check and adequacy of number of stations. Simple statistical analysis
was conducted on the data such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation. 27
years of annual rainfall data were simulated with the Fourier Series equation using
spreadsheet. Hence, the result was compared with the Fitting N -term Harmonic Series.
The model result reveals that the Fourier Series has the ability to simulate the observed
data by being able to describe the rainfall pattern. The result was tested using x 2 and
RMSE, 2.95 and 1133 mm respectively. There is a reasonable relationship between the
simulation and observed data with p-value of 0.93. For future study it is highly
recommended to have a refinement in the data analysis that can highly influences the
II
ABSTRAK
Hujan adalah satu fenomena alam yang memainkan peranan yang besar dalam kehidupan
manusia. Kajian ini dijalankan sebagai salah satu langkah menghadapi kesan-kesan
perubahan iklim. Kawasan kajian yang terbabit adalah Lembagan Sungai Sarawak dan
kaedah model hujan yang telah digunapakai ialah Fourier Series. Kajian baru-baru ini
telah mendapati FS berupaya untuk mensimulasikan hujan dalam jangka panjang iaitu
sehingga 300 tahun dilihat sebagai penemuan penting. Data hujan daripada lapan stesen
hidrologi daripada Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran , Sarawak, telah dianalisa bagi data yang
hilang dan juga keseragaman data. Analisis statistik telah dijalankan ke atas data seperti
maksimum, minimum dan min. 27 tahun data hujan tahunan disimulasikan dengan
mempunyai keupayaan untuk mensimulasikan corak hujan. Hasil dapatan kajian ini telah
diuji dengan menggunakan x 2 dan RMSE, 2.95 dan 1133 mm. Terdapat hubungan yang
wajar di antara simulasi dan data dengan p-nilai 0.93 . Untuk kajian di masa hadapan,
dicadangkan untuk melakukan analisa data yang lebih terperinci bagi meningkatkan
III
Pu. ut Khidm:u MakJumat Ak demik
I 1 :VSIA SARAWAK
TABLE OF CONTENT
CONTENT Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
ABSTRACT 11
ABSTRAK 1lI
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
1.3 Objectives 5
,
"
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction 13
.-
IV
2.5 Performance Evaluation Of Models 23
2.5 Summary 24
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction 26
3.6 Summary 41
4.1 Introduction 42
5.1 Overview 49
i
.,
5.2 Conclusions 50
REFERENCES
APPENDICES
v
LIST OF FIGURES
Title Page
Figure 1.3 Sungai Sarawak basin area and location of hydrological stations 8
VI
LIST OF TABLES
Malaysia
Vll
LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendices Description
,
APPENDIX A Monthly data
VIII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
Abbreviations Descriptions
Coefficient of variation
Precipitation of station
Corrected precipitation
IX
CHAPTERl ,
INTRODUCTION
1.1. General
Recent reports on climate change have stirred global worries. The regional climate
projects that the mean sea level, temperature and rainfall variability in all regions will
increase in the future. Precipitation in the southern part and most part of Southeast Asia
will likely increase in boreal winter and summer. Christensen et a1. (2007) predicts
extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones will likely to increase with
increase in the annual mean surface temperature to 0.6 °c - 1.2 °c per year based on 40
year observations. Rainfall intensity observations from the year 2000 to 2007 are found to
have exceeded the highest recorded rainfall intensity in 1971 to 1980 that was previously
reported. During the same observation period, the annual maximum rainfall intensity has
increased by 17 % and 29 % for 1 hour and 3 hour durations, respectively. The mean sea
level recorded at Tanjung Piai, Johor, also indicated an increase of rate as much as 1.3
mmJ year in the observed year 1986 to 2006 (N C2 2011). The behavior of the results is
In concern with the climate change particularly in Malaysia, two models were
used to evaluate the hydro climatic projections for the year 2050 and 2099. The models
are known as Regional Hydro - Climate Model for Peninsular Malaysia (ResHCM-PM)
and Providing Regional Climater for Impact Studies (PRECIS). Both models were used
for hydro climatic projections in the West Malaysia however only PRECIS was used for
hydro climatic projections in the East Malaysia. The findings for both observed and
LIlA
Figure 1. 1: HadCM3 PRECIS simulations of annual rain days for Malaysia (Sammathuria et
al. 2010)
DeC1"!ATO
rl:-' L.unU.LU!IIA
...ul.uI
Sammathuria et al. (2010) have used HadCMe PRECIS to project the annual
and annual rain days projections for the year 2000 to 2099. Results of the simulation are
as depicted in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2. The significant interdecadal variation detected
in all simulations suggested that there would be a long-term extended dry spells. Sarawak
Both regional and national reports have suggested there is a change in the rainfall
pattern whereby the intensity of precipitation events will increase. Christensen et al.
(2007) stated that the regional quantitative estimations of precipitation change are
difficult to obtain as they are limited to uncertainties in the sources and studies should be
done on a smaller scale. While Sammathuria et al. (2010) suggested that Sarawak will
experience forty years of drought in their projection up to the year 2099. Therefore,
studies in enhancing the ability for rainfall forecasting models in capturing the change of
climate and its effects on the rainfall patterns are greatly needed for future guidelines and
preparations.
Malaysia where the rain is abundant. Malaysia receives rainfall from 2000 mm to 4000
March and May to September. The state of Sarawak is well known for its long and wide
rivers and rivers have always been the main transportation and still are in certain remote
areas. Numerous activities such as commercial, industrial and residential can always be
found in the vicinity of the rivers. The activities have started since decades ago and still
continue to grow and spatially expanding through times providing incomes ranging from
small fanners to the largest corporations. Unfortunately, these areas are expected to
experience frequent flood events as well as possible receding water level in rivers based
on the findings of previous studies. If the projections are accurate, the productivity of
these activities will be reduced, hence, in a longer tenn may affect the economy of the
revised as effects of climate change with the intention that the state can fully utilize the
favorable conditions and make scientific based decisions in the future. Further study in
(2207) is indeed very crucial to improve the estimation accuracy for long-tenn rainfall
sectors where rain is considered as a major driving factor such as agriculture and water
resources.
1.3. Objective
Fourier Series has been well accepted as 'a tool that has improved the result of
hydrological modeling and reduces complex parameters analysis for simulation purposes,
Recent study by Rostam Afshar and Fahmi (2012) reveals the ability of Fourier Series to
simulate long-tenn rainfall up to 300 years is viewed as an important finding in the study
of rainfall forecast. For this reason, the main goal of the study is to forecast rainfall for
5
1. To screen missing rainfall data.
~
2. To check on the adequacy of the number of selected rain gauge station.
Series.
6. To verify the simulation result using statistical analysis i.e. Root Mean Square
and Chi-Square.
The selected study area was Sungai Sarawak basin as depicted in Figure 1.3. The
basin is currently under the management of the Sarawak Department of Drainage (DID).
Daily rainfall data was obtained from DID for eight hydrological stations. Data was
prepared and analyzed as monthly rainfall data for modeling purpose. The method of
modeling was using Fourier Series and results were statistically verified for one year
observed data.
The basin consists of 49 hydrological stations of which 37 are rain gauge stations.
The basin area is approximately 2 459 km 2 with river length of 120 km. Originating from
Kapuas Mountains, Sg. Sarawak that consists of two main tributaries i.e. Sg. Sarawak
Kiri and Sg. Sarawak Kanan runs through the city before exiting to South China Sea. The
river is lively with numerous activities along the river. Improvement in the rainfall
forecast study will benefit the state as well as public by proper planning and mitigation of
water resources.
17
15
,.
Figure 1.3: Sg. Sarawak basin area and location of hydrological stations (DID)
between the years 2025 to 2050; however, during dry season urban areas are expected to
experience water disruption since water supply will be greatly shared among many
sectors such as domestic and industries. The increase in population and rapid
development in various sectors will give rise to the demand of water significantly which
leads to a draw down in water supply reservoirs. In 2012 the water level in Sungai
Selangor dam was reported has dropped and the capacity of the dam has decreased as
much as 50 % (Mahmood, 2012). In the same year, the rivers water level in Kota Tinggi,
Kluang, Mersing and Muar districts were also reported have slightly dropped due to the
hot weather, which caused SAl holdings to be on alert ensuring there was not disruption
of water supply at the Sungai Sayong water treatment, Kota Tinggi. SAl holdings is
currently in charge for the water treatment and distribution of treated water in lohor.
It is to the author's point of view that the same scenarios will occur here in
Sarawak. Sarawak in its long term planning via series of dams construction has aim to
increase the industrial activities within the state to enhance economy growth through
hydropower. Larger areas allocated for industries would definitely lead to significant
increase in water demand. Under the Master Plan of Sarawak Corridor of Renewable
I
Energy (SCORE), to connect to the industries that are located along the coastal, twelve
approximately 320 km from Tanjung Manis to Samalaju (Figure 1.4). The area covered
is half ofthe size of the state, 70 709 km2 (Sovacool and Bulan 2012).
9
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Figure 1.4: Map of SCORE (Sarawak Energy Berhad 2013)
variability. Prolong drought or seasonal rainfall will hinder the productivity of the sector.
The long duration of drought will disrupt the irrigation of water and may stop any
planting activity while flood will damage the crops within the affected areas. The study of
rainfall estimation is viewed to be able to minimize the damages and take advantage the
favorable behavior of the climate for agricultural £ectors through proper planning and
mitigation.
In addition to the 2011 climate change projection for Malaysia, one of the findings
that should be taken seriously is the prediction of increase in the flood frequency. The rise
of mean sea level together with the increase in the rainfall intensity, NC2 (2011)
10
projected that the existing flood affected areas will experience an Increase In the
frequency of flood event while present unaffected areas will likely experience flood
(Figure 1.5). Located at the vicinity of estuary, a flood prone area at present, the city of
Kuching is viewed to be more vulnerable in the future based on the projections. It is to the
author's point of view that this study will benefit the state of Sarawak very much in its
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SARAWAK R . (FLOODS ) *
CJ FLOODS
2040 ·2050 2090 ·21 00
Low Flow(ml/s) 29 1/ 405 6. 16i (4.05)
High Flow(ml/s) 89.42/( 98.42) 13391/(98.42)
11
The report consists of five main chapters. Chapter 1 gives the overVIew of study
background. A problem statement is discussed where from there the objective of the study
is detennined. The breadth and depth of the study is given in the scope of study and the
Chapter 2 is the literature review mainly focusing on the study development of rainfall
limitations as well as the improvements, and the challenges often faced by researchers.
Chapter 3 outlines the procedures done in carrying out the study e.g. preparation of data,
Chapter 4 presents the results and discussions of the study, inclusive of the evaluation on
whether the model was able to achieve the objective of the study and the limitations ofthe
study.
Chapter 5 generally summarized the study based on the results and analysis. Conclusion
was made whether the study has achieved its main purpose and recommendations for
future study.
12
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 General
The tudy of rainfall forecast is crucial to a country such as Malaysia where rainfall
is received in abundant annually. Every year there is always news on flood events taking
place throughout the country. In addition, having agricultural activity as one of the main
contributor to the economy growth of the country, there is an even greater need to
understand the occurrence of future rainfall for planning and management for both dry and
wet season. The country would benefit by taking advantage of the favorable conditions by
baving a guiding standard in increasing crop production, for reservoir operation and
flooding prevention. Simultaneously, mitigate the adverse impacts of the rainfall during
extreme events of wet and dry season. The sustainability of water resources in some part
.of the country is also at question where recent reports on the drop in the water storage
have cause worries among the stakeholders as they have to find other source of water for
future usage.
,
Malaysia is predicted to experience wet and dry season to the extreme in 50 years.
With the combination of the sea level increment and increase in rainfall intensity, floods
are expected to occur in low-lying areas especially coastal areas. Sarawak having the
13
largest river in Malaysia where having high population concentration can be observed
along the river, there is a tendency for these areas to be frequently inundated in the future.
Rainfall forecasts can be a great tool in making scientifically based decisions on long-term
planning and management of water resources, therefore, minimizing any possible hardship
incurred to stakeholders.
guidelines such as in Figure 2.1. Chow et al. (1988) stated that the model could be
classified according to the way they transform the input to output. Deterministic models
transform inputs to outputs based on the deterministic relationship. Models that work on
such principle are also known as physical or conceptual models. Conceptual model is
designed based on the knowledge and characteristics of the basin, normally for a small
scale basin. It assembles component equations that represent the hydrologic processes of
the basin. However, physical model is not feasible in the study of rainfall forecasting
solve the thermodynamic equation. Despite that, the model can be improved with the
models on a basin scale (Burlando et al. 1996; Wei 2008; Luk et al. 2001).
14