Cognitive bias

The arithmetic of reason

Concluding remarks

How to think rationally about the future

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic

2010-07-03

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

How to think rationally about the future

1 Cognitive bias

2 The arithmetic of reason

3 Concluding remarks

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

LessWrong.com

lesswrong.com
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Future of Humanity Institute

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

1982

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

The Second International Congress on Forecasting,

1982

First group
a complete suspension of
diplomatic relations between
the USA and the Soviet
Union, sometime in 1983

[Tversky and Kahneman, 1983]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

The Second International Congress on Forecasting,

1982

Second group
First group a Russian invasion of
a complete suspension of Poland, and a complete
diplomatic relations between suspension of diplomatic
the USA and the Soviet relations between the USA
Union, sometime in 1983 and the Soviet Union,
sometime in 1983
[Tversky and Kahneman, 1983]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

What is a cognitive bias?

A fallibility in human thought

Not random but directed
Revealed by experiment
Compared to a model of reason

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

The science of bias

Does this experiment measure what it’s trying to

measure?

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

The science of bias

Does this experiment measure what it’s trying to

measure?
22 experiments in that one paper

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

The science of bias

Does this experiment measure what it’s trying to

measure?
22 experiments in that one paper
1431 cites on Google Scholar

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

The science of bias

Does this experiment measure what it’s trying to

measure?
22 experiments in that one paper
1431 cites on Google Scholar
Example: intuitive likelihood vs probability

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Which is the best bet?

Die has four green faces, two red faces

Rolled 20 times, a sequence of 20 Gs and Rs recorded
If your chosen sequence appears, you win $25
Which sequence will you choose?

Sequence 1 Sequence 2 Sequence 3

RGRRR GRGRRR GRRRRR
[Tversky and Kahneman, 1983]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Anchoring bias

Anchor Median
estimate
10% 25%
65% 45%

[Tversky and Kahneman, 1974]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Scope neglect

Flight terrorism, Thailand to US leg $17.19

Flight terrorism, round trip $13.90
Terrorism, flight and ground $7.44
[Johnson et al., 1993]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Scope neglect - one child or eight?

One identified child 10.71

Eight identified children 5.03
[Kogut and Ritov, 2005]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Biased assimilation

[Lord et al., 1979]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Biased assimilation
Ficticious research A
Ficticious research B
Kroner and Phillips (1977)
Palmer and Crandall (1977)
compared murder rates for
compared murder rates in 10
the year before and the year
pairs of neighbouring states
after adoption of capital
with different capital
punishment in 14 states. In
punishment laws. In 8 of the
11 of the 14 states, murder
10 states, murder rates were
rates were lower after
higher in the state with
adoption of the death
capital punishment. This
penalty. This research
research opposes the
supports the deterrent
deterrent effect of the
effect of the death
death penalty.
penalty.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Biased assimilation
Ficticious research C
Ficticious research D
Kroner and Phillips (1977)
Palmer and Crandall (1977)
compared murder rates for
compared murder rates in 10
the year before and the year
pairs of neighbouring states
after adoption of capital
with different capital
punishment in 14 states. In
punishment laws. In 8 of the
11 of the 14 states, murder
10 states, murder rates were
rates were higher after
lower in the state with
adoption of the death
capital punishment. This
penalty. This research
research supports the
opposes the deterrent
deterrent effect of the
effect of the death
death penalty.
penalty.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Reason is a kludge

Wikipedia: 150 articles

Confirmation bias
Hindsight effect
Illusory correlation
Overconfidence effect
Choice-supportive bias
Zero-risk bias
Bystander effect
Illusory superiority
...
[Mercier and Sperber, 2010]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Arithmetic is the straight edge

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Probability

0% 100%

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Probability

0% 50% 100%

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Probability

0% 17% 50% 100%

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Probability

0% 17% 40% 50% 100%

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Cox’s theorem

l(¬A) = f (l(A))
l(A ∧ B) = g (l(A), l(B|A))
...

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes Theorem

20% of the population have the disease

The test is 80% accurate
If you test positive, what’s the probability you have the
disease?

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Bayes theorem

16%

16%

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Other tools

Solomonoff induction
Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem
Economics
Game theory
Picoeconomics
...

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Knowing about cognitive biases can harm you

Motivated skepticism again

but armed with new tools
Let the winds of evidence blow you about as though
you are a leaf, with no direction of your own.
[Yudkowsky, 2006]

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Cognitive bias
The arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks

Conclusion

Cognitive psychology
Probability theory, decision theory, economics
Quantitative thinking
Straightening the crooked timber of our reason

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Bibliography

Bibliography I

Johnson, E. J., Hershey, J., Meszaros, J., and Kunreuther,

H. (1993).
Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7(1):35–51.
Kogut, T. and Ritov, I. (2005).
The singularity effect of identified victims in separate and
joint evaluations.
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,
97(2):106–116.

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Bibliography

Bibliography II

Lord, C. G., Ross, L., and Lepper, M. R. (1979).

Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects
of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
37(11):2098–2109.
Mercier, H. and Sperber, D. (2010).
Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative
theory.
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974).
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.
Science, 185(4157):1124–1131.

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
 Bibliography

Bibliography III

Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1983).

Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction
fallacy in probability judgment.
Psychological Review, 90(4):293–315.
Yudkowsky, E. S. (2006).
Twelve virtues of rationality.

Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future