Reading input spec file from P_TOTE.

spc

U. S. Department of Commerce, U. S. Census Bureau

X-12-ARIMA monthly seasonal adjustment Method,

Release Version 0.3 Build 192
This method modifies the X-11 variant of Census Method II
by J. Shiskin A.H. Young and J.C. Musgrave of February, 1967.
and the X-11-ARIMA program based on the methodological research
developed by Estela Bee Dagum, Chief of the Seasonal Adjustment
and Time Series Staff of Statistics Canada, September, 1979.

This version of X-12-ARIMA includes an automatic ARIMA model

selection procedure based largely on the procedure of Gomez and
Maravall (1998) as implemented in TRAMO (1996).

Primary Programmers: Brian Monsell, Mark Otto

Series Title- P_TOTE

Series Name- P_TOTE
Mar 3, 2018 11.31.19

-Period covered- 1st month,1987 to 12th month,2015

-Type of run - auto-mode seasonal adjustment
-Sigma limits for graduating extreme values are 1.5 and 2.5 .
-3x3 moving average used in section 1 of each iteration,
3x5 moving average in section 2 of iterations B and C,
moving average for final seasonal factors chosen by Global MSR.

FILE SAVE REQUESTS (* indicates file exists and will be overwritten)

P_TOTE.d11 final seasonally adjusted data
P_TOTE.d12 final trend cycle
P_TOTE.d13 final irregular component
P_TOTE.out program output file
P_TOTE.err program error file

Contents of spc file P_TOTE.spc

Line #
------
1: series
2: period=12
3: title="P_TOTE"
4: start=1987.1
5: data=(
6: 27.5035 24.7215 26.6276 25.4596 25.5975 26.2626 29.3609
7: 29.4825 28.5823 27.4954 25.711 28.9553 28.6066 26.733
8: 28.4606 26.8466 27.5116 29.3609 31.5508 31.4778 28.8661
9: 28.7688 28.2903 30.5045 30.9263 28.0875 29.515 29.4177
10: 28.3714 29.7745 32.2807 31.6238 31.5264 30.618 29.9043
11: 32.0212 32.5971 28.6715 31.932 30.6748 30.9425 33.6596
12: 35.1033 34.6896 34.495 34.8437 32.5078 37.1147 35.2979
13: 31.1615 33.4406 30.3342 31.6806 32.8323 38.5017 38.1935
14: 34.4788 35.0303 34.4382 37.942 38.672 34.3977 36.2631
15: 32.7917 34.9573 35.9874 39.6696 40.7727 39.2803 37.2607
16: 35.4196 38.9721 39.2398 36.5876 38.0961 36.2469 37.6987
17: 38.307 41.308 40.7808 39.2803 37.1229 37.3419 40.7484
18: 39.8724 36.5308 37.7393 37.5446 39.1992 41.5351 45.266
 19: 45.6472 42.7436 40.5375 39.4182 40.5456 45.1201 38.7531
20: 41.7622 40.9025 41.673 45.8744 51.1788 50.6589 45.8419
21: 45.0471 43.8304 46.653 44.2684 44.3495 43.6926 41.2593
22: 44.1549 45.2742 51.5924 53.5796 47.2126 46.6611 45.923
23: 48.5103 48.409 41.8433 46.7422 44.528 50.0311 54.0297
24: 57.0226 56.5035 51.4343 50.5218 46.5029 51.5762 50.8746
25: 45.9838 49.8811 46.7138 50.5867 55.9722 62.9637 60.4737
26: 58.2554 53.2916 51.7181 57.0185 52.805 50.8543 51.272
27: 51.9858 57.6471 62.2175 67.5868 68.994 62.623 59.6342
28: 55.7086 59.3503 58.7866 56.5643 57.3389 55.7086 60.5953
29: 59.7194 66.9298 67.5422 62.9596 61.2401 68.7061 81.1885
30: 64.1357 58.3487 61.0617 60.9644 65.624 69.4361 79.173
31: 78.0294 70.312 69.9795 59.468 57.2537 69.4198 59.6383
32: 65.0441 63.2638 67.5462 74.0673 82.5511 80.2274 73.97
33: 70.8798 65.2022 66.8528 69.5942 62.7082 66.3175 64.9062
34: 68.7791 78.4349 94.4901 91.627 75.3691 74.9311 63.8275
35: 67.4489 74.6269 67.0758 72.7412 68.9332 72.5141 78.5282
36: 93.6426 94.0075 83.2446 79.7124 69.6875 78.512 78.6012
37: 73.8037 76.1801 71.6989 78.6661 84.5707 99.3687 95.3823
38: 85.2642 79.7326 72.3519 83.2811 82.4822 72.8588 77.6968
39: 75.3326 81.6143 88.9748 103.882 100.419 88.1597 82.4213
40: 78.5606 80.7059 83.7799 76.2572 80.5234 76.3505 83.5325
41: 94.4901 107.532 107.897 94.8024 85.3331 82.8634 123.255
42: 88.4192 79.7245 83.9381 82.4943 88.9667 95.8649 115.923
43: 114.134 99.5958 86.3794 82.3443 88.9586 90.1752 82.9729
44: 84.595 81.1074 88.4071 101.06 123.932 123.527 97.0856
45: 90.8403 84.5139 164.729 93.5128 83.4474 91.3594 88.7883
46: 95.4107 104.868 128.142 125.489 102.276 98.9348 88.0867
47: 99.6851 93.5168 85.2317 94.1049 91.7122 96.8139 106.003
48: 131.045 126.69 116.158 100.411 90.9255 100.5 107.139
49: 101.737 98.0548 96.0352 104.462 124.167 147.032 150.726
50: 112.131 103.55 103.753 110.979 100.176 105.01 102.873
51: 104.75 112.378 129.646 141.727 140.308 120.992 115.489
52: 102.702 113.814 111.125 99.3728 106.413 103.177 111.283
53: 124.719 144.152 152.153 141.293 115.736 104.633 114.657
54: 113.818 103.59 108.899 104.762 113.94 126.378 150.418
55: 155.949 137.059 115.74 104.629 114.686 )
56:
57: transformfunction=auto
58: outlier
59: automdl
60: x11 save=( d11 d12 d13 )

Likelihood statistics for model fit to untransformed series.

Likelihood Statistics
------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of observations (nobs) 348
Effective number of observations (nefobs) 335
Number of parameters estimated (np) 3
Log likelihood (L) -1075.2936
AIC 2156.5871
AICC (F-corrected-AIC) 2156.6596
Hannan Quinn 2161.1489
BIC 2168.0295
------------------------------------------------------------------
Likelihood statistics for model fit to log transformed series.

Likelihood Statistics
------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of observations (nobs) 348
Effective number of observations (nefobs) 335
Number of parameters estimated (np) 3
Log likelihood 478.5302
Transformation Adjustment -1391.4200
Adjusted Log likelihood (L) -912.8898
AIC 1831.7795
AICC (F-corrected-AIC) 1831.8520
Hannan Quinn 1836.3413
BIC 1843.2219
------------------------------------------------------------------

***** AICC (with aicdiff=-2.00) prefers log transformation *****

***** Multiplicative seasonal adjustment will be performed. ****

A 1 Time series data (for the span analyzed)

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 28. 25. 27. 25. 26. 26.
29. 29. 29. 27. 26. 29. 326.
1988 29. 27. 28. 27. 28. 29.
32. 31. 29. 29. 28. 31. 347.
1989 31. 28. 30. 29. 28. 30.
32. 32. 32. 31. 30. 32. 364.

1990 33. 29. 32. 31. 31. 34.

35. 35. 34. 35. 33. 37. 397.
1991 35. 31. 33. 30. 32. 33.
39. 38. 34. 35. 34. 38. 413.
1992 39. 34. 36. 33. 35. 36.
40. 41. 39. 37. 35. 39. 444.
1993 39. 37. 38. 36. 38. 38.
41. 41. 39. 37. 37. 41. 463.
1994 40. 37. 38. 38. 39. 42.
45. 46. 43. 41. 39. 41. 487.

1995 45. 39. 42. 41. 42. 46.

51. 51. 46. 45. 44. 47. 537.
1996 44. 44. 44. 41. 44. 45.
52. 54. 47. 47. 46. 49. 556.
1997 48. 42. 47. 45. 50. 54.
57. 57. 51. 51. 47. 52. 599.
1998 51. 46. 50. 47. 51. 56.
63. 60. 58. 53. 52. 57. 644.
1999 53. 51. 51. 52. 58. 62.
68. 69. 63. 60. 56. 59. 701.
2000 59. 57. 57. 56. 61. 60.
67. 68. 63. 61. 69. 81. 757.
2001 64. 58. 61. 61. 66. 69.
79. 78. 70. 70. 59. 57. 794.
2002 69. 60. 65. 63. 68. 74.
83. 80. 74. 71. 65. 67. 839.
2003 70. 63. 66. 65. 69. 78.
94. 92. 75. 75. 64. 67. 878.
2004 75. 67. 73. 69. 73. 79.
94. 94. 83. 80. 70. 79. 933.

2005 79. 74. 76. 72. 79. 85.

99. 95. 85. 80. 72. 83. 979.
2006 82. 73. 78. 75. 82. 89.
104. 100. 88. 82. 79. 81. 1013.
2007 84. 76. 81. 76. 84. 94.
108. 108. 95. 85. 83. 123. 1097.
2008 88. 80. 84. 82. 89. 96.
116. 114. 100. 86. 82. 89. 1107.
2009 90. 83. 85. 81. 88. 101.
124. 124. 97. 91. 85. 165. 1213.

2010 94. 83. 91. 89. 95. 105.

128. 125. 102. 99. 88. 100. 1200.
2011 94. 85. 94. 92. 97. 106.
131. 127. 116. 100. 91. 101. 1233.
2012 107. 102. 98. 96. 104. 124.
147. 151. 112. 104. 104. 111. 1360.
2013 100. 105. 103. 105. 112. 130.
142. 140. 121. 115. 103. 114. 1390.
2014 111. 99. 106. 103. 111. 125.
144. 152. 141. 116. 105. 115. 1429.

2015 114. 104. 109. 105. 114. 126.

150. 156. 137. 116. 105. 115. 1450.

AVGE 65. 60. 63. 61. 65. 71.

83. 82. 73. 68. 63. 72.

Table Total- 23949.51 Mean- 68.82 Std. Dev.- 31.57

Min - 24.72 Max - 164.73
Automatic ARIMA Model Selection

Procedure based closely on TRAMO method

of Gomez and Maravall (2000)
"Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series",
A Course in Time Series
(Edited by D. Pena, G. C. Tiao, R. S. Tsay),
New York : J. Wiley and Sons

Maximum order for regular ARMA parameters : 2

Maximum order for seasonal ARMA parameters : 1
Maximum order for regular differencing : 2
Maximum order for seasonal differencing : 1

Results of Unit Root Test for identifying orders of differencing:

Regular difference order : 0
Seasonal difference order : 1
 Mean is significant.

Automatic model choice : (2 0 1)(0 1 1)

Final automatic model choice : (1 1 1)(0 1 1)

End of automatic model selection procedure.
Average absolute percentage error in within-sample forecasts:
Last year: 3.63 Last-1 year: 4.37 Last-2 year: 3.71
Last three years: 3.90

Estimation converged in 6 ARMA iterations, 63 function evaluations.

Regression Model
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Parameter Standard
Variable Estimate Error t-value
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Automatically Identified Outliers
AO2000.Nov 0.1819 0.03065 5.93
AO2000.Dec 0.2610 0.03106 8.40
AO2001.Dec -0.1423 0.02964 -4.80
AO2007.Dec 0.3382 0.02941 11.50
AO2009.Dec 0.5677 0.02943 19.29
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIMA Model: (1 1 1)(0 1 1)

Nonseasonal differences: 1
Seasonal differences: 1
Standard
Parameter Estimate Errors
-----------------------------------------------------
Nonseasonal AR
Lag 1 0.3132 0.06053

Nonseasonal MA
Lag 1 0.9246 0.02603

Seasonal MA
Lag 12 0.6758 0.04307

Variance 0.11907E-02
SE of Var 0.92000E-04
-----------------------------------------------------

Likelihood Statistics
------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of observations (nobs) 348
Effective number of observations (nefobs) 335
Number of parameters estimated (np) 9
Log likelihood 647.8282
Transformation Adjustment -1391.4200
Adjusted Log likelihood (L) -743.5918
AIC 1505.1835
AICC (F-corrected-AIC) 1505.7374
Hannan Quinn 1518.8688
BIC 1539.5107
------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTING
Origin 2015.Dec
Number 12

Forecasts and Standard Errors of the Transformed Data

------------------------------
Standard
Date Forecast Error
------------------------------
2016.Jan 4.75 0.035
2016.Feb 4.68 0.037
2016.Mar 4.73 0.038
2016.Apr 4.70 0.038
2016.May 4.78 0.038
2016.Jun 4.90 0.038
2016.Jul 5.06 0.039
2016.Aug 5.08 0.039
2016.Sep 4.93 0.039
2016.Oct 4.80 0.039
2016.Nov 4.71 0.039
2016.Dec 4.80 0.039
------------------------------

Confidence intervals with coverage probability (0.95000)

On the Original Scale
---------------------------------------
Date Lower Forecast Upper
---------------------------------------
2016.Jan 107.99 115.55 123.64
2016.Feb 100.66 108.23 116.38
2016.Mar 104.85 112.88 121.52
2016.Apr 102.25 110.15 118.65
2016.May 110.45 119.03 128.27
2016.Jun 124.16 133.85 144.30
2016.Jul 145.42 156.83 169.13
2016.Aug 148.33 160.03 172.65
2016.Sep 128.84 139.05 150.07
2016.Oct 112.78 121.76 131.46
2016.Nov 103.00 111.25 120.15
2016.Dec 112.88 121.96 131.77
---------------------------------------

A 8 RegARIMA combined outlier component

(AO outliers included)
From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1988 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1989 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1990 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1992 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1993 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1994 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1995 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1996 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1997 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1998 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1999 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

2000 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.9 129.8 104.1
2001 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 86.7 98.9
2002 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2003 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2004 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

2005 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2006 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2007 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 140.2 103.4
2008 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2009 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 176.4 106.4

2010 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2011 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2012 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2013 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2014 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

2015 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

AVGE 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.7 104.6
 Table Total- 34953.16 Mean- 100.44 Std. Dev.- 5.06
Min - 86.74 Max - 176.41

A 8.A RegARIMA outlier component

From 2016.Jan to 2016.Dec
Observations 12
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

B 1 Original series (prior adjusted)

(adjusted for regARIMA factors)
From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 28. 25. 27. 25. 26. 26.
29. 29. 29. 27. 26. 29. 326.
1988 29. 27. 28. 27. 28. 29.
32. 31. 29. 29. 28. 31. 347.
1989 31. 28. 30. 29. 28. 30.
32. 32. 32. 31. 30. 32. 364.

1990 33. 29. 32. 31. 31. 34.

35. 35. 34. 35. 33. 37. 397.
1991 35. 31. 33. 30. 32. 33.
39. 38. 34. 35. 34. 38. 413.
1992 39. 34. 36. 33. 35. 36.
40. 41. 39. 37. 35. 39. 444.
1993 39. 37. 38. 36. 38. 38.
41. 41. 39. 37. 37. 41. 463.
1994 40. 37. 38. 38. 39. 42.
45. 46. 43. 41. 39. 41. 487.

1995 45. 39. 42. 41. 42. 46.

51. 51. 46. 45. 44. 47. 537.
1996 44. 44. 44. 41. 44. 45.
52. 54. 47. 47. 46. 49. 556.
1997 48. 42. 47. 45. 50. 54.
57. 57. 51. 51. 47. 52. 599.
1998 51. 46. 50. 47. 51. 56.
63. 60. 58. 53. 52. 57. 644.
1999 53. 51. 51. 52. 58. 62.
68. 69. 63. 60. 56. 59. 701.

2000 59. 57. 57. 56. 61. 60.

67. 68. 63. 61. 57. 63. 727.
2001 64. 58. 61. 61. 66. 69.
79. 78. 70. 70. 59. 66. 803.
2002 69. 60. 65. 63. 68. 74.
83. 80. 74. 71. 65. 67. 839.
2003 70. 63. 66. 65. 69. 78.
 94. 92. 75. 75. 64. 67. 878.
2004 75. 67. 73. 69. 73. 79.
94. 94. 83. 80. 70. 79. 933.

2005 79. 74. 76. 72. 79. 85.

99. 95. 85. 80. 72. 83. 979.
2006 82. 73. 78. 75. 82. 89.
104. 100. 88. 82. 79. 81. 1013.
2007 84. 76. 81. 76. 84. 94.
108. 108. 95. 85. 83. 88. 1061.
2008 88. 80. 84. 82. 89. 96.
116. 114. 100. 86. 82. 89. 1107.
2009 90. 83. 85. 81. 88. 101.
124. 124. 97. 91. 85. 93. 1142.

2010 94. 83. 91. 89. 95. 105.

128. 125. 102. 99. 88. 100. 1200.
2011 94. 85. 94. 92. 97. 106.
131. 127. 116. 100. 91. 100. 1233.
2012 107. 102. 98. 96. 104. 124.
147. 151. 112. 104. 104. 111. 1360.
2013 100. 105. 103. 105. 112. 130.
142. 140. 121. 115. 103. 114. 1390.
2014 111. 99. 106. 103. 111. 125.
144. 152. 141. 116. 105. 115. 1429.

2015 114. 104. 109. 105. 114. 126.

150. 156. 137. 116. 105. 115. 1450.

AVGE 65. 60. 63. 61. 65. 71.

83. 82. 73. 68. 63. 68.

Table Total- 23821.46 Mean- 68.45 Std. Dev.- 31.05

Min - 24.72 Max - 155.95

B 1.A Forecasts of (prior adjusted) original series

From 2016.Jan to 2016.Dec
Observations 12
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 116. 108. 113. 110. 119. 134.
157. 160. 139. 122. 111. 122. 1511.

C 17 Final weights for irregular component

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
Lower sigma limit 1.50
Upper sigma limit 2.50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S.D.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 16.7 100.0 1.6
1988 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 1.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6
1989 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6

1990 100.0 85.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 1.6 100.0 59.3 100.0 0.0 1.6
1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 84.4
0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5
1992 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.8 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5
1993 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5
1994 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 1.6

1995 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6
1996 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 55.1
100.0 13.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7
1997 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.9
1998 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.9
1999 8.0 100.0 35.7 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7

2000 100.0 58.4 100.0 100.0 60.9 30.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.8
2001 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 96.3 100.0 1.8
2002 100.0 89.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 16.1 100.0 1.7
2003 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
0.0 0.0 55.5 100.0 100.0 0.0 1.7
2004 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6

2005 100.0 76.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 1.5
2006 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 1.4
2007 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.8 100.0 1.5
2008 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 38.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5
2009 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 37.4 92.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.0

2010 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.6
2011 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 21.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.8
2012 100.0 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 40.1 0.0 79.1 67.2 100.0 2.7
2013 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.7
2014 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.4

2015 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.4

D 8 Final unmodified SI ratios

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 103.1 92.7 99.6 95.1 95.4 97.4
108.1 107.7 103.7 99.1 92.2 103.4 99.8
1988 101.7 94.4 99.7 93.2 94.8 100.7
107.8 107.5 98.5 98.0 96.1 103.1 99.6
1989 104.0 94.1 98.6 98.4 94.9 99.5
107.6 104.8 103.8 100.2 97.2 103.4 100.5

1990 104.2 90.6 99.4 94.1 93.8 101.1

104.9 103.2 102.3 103.0 95.9 109.6 100.2
1991 104.6 92.9 100.0 90.7 94.2 96.8
112.2 109.9 98.0 98.4 95.7 104.5 99.8
1992 105.8 93.8 98.8 89.5 95.3 97.8
107.1 109.4 105.0 99.3 94.1 102.9 99.9
1993 102.6 94.7 97.8 92.9 97.0 99.5
108.3 107.4 103.3 97.0 96.8 104.8 100.2
1994 101.8 92.6 94.9 93.5 96.6 101.4
109.9 110.4 103.3 97.8 94.8 96.8 99.5

1995 106.7 90.7 96.5 93.4 94.1 102.5

113.5 111.7 100.7 98.7 95.9 101.9 100.5
1996 96.6 96.8 95.7 90.7 97.3 99.8
113.2 116.6 101.6 99.1 96.5 101.0 100.4
1997 99.8 85.3 94.2 88.8 99.0 106.6
112.6 112.0 102.3 100.5 92.2 101.6 99.6
1998 99.5 89.3 96.2 89.3 95.8 105.0
116.9 111.2 106.2 96.5 93.2 102.4 100.1
1999 94.3 90.2 90.2 90.4 99.0 105.4
113.3 115.0 104.1 99.1 92.6 98.4 99.3

2000 97.1 93.1 94.3 92.0 100.8 100.2

112.8 113.4 104.5 100.0 91.8 98.6 99.9
2001 99.7 89.6 92.9 92.0 98.3 103.3
117.2 115.2 103.6 103.0 87.4 96.9 99.9
2002 101.6 86.8 94.1 91.1 96.9 106.0
118.0 114.5 105.5 101.1 92.9 95.2 100.3
2003 99.0 88.8 93.2 90.3 94.5 106.8
127.9 123.8 101.9 101.4 86.2 90.5 100.3
2004 99.2 88.6 95.6 90.4 94.9 102.3
121.0 120.2 105.3 99.9 86.8 97.4 100.1

2005 97.2 91.0 93.8 88.3 96.9 104.3

122.7 117.8 105.0 97.9 88.4 101.2 100.4
2006 99.7 87.5 92.8 89.6 96.7 105.3
122.9 119.0 104.7 97.9 93.1 95.2 100.4
2007 98.2 88.8 93.1 87.8 95.6 107.6
121.8 121.3 105.8 94.6 91.4 96.5 100.2
2008 96.8 87.0 91.4 89.6 96.5 103.8
125.6 123.9 108.1 93.6 89.0 95.9 100.1
2009 97.1 89.2 90.7 86.6 93.9 106.6
 130.1 129.2 101.5 95.0 88.3 97.0 100.4

2010 96.3 85.0 92.3 89.2 95.6 105.0

128.1 125.0 101.6 98.1 87.3 98.9 100.2
2011 92.8 84.5 93.1 90.6 95.3 104.0
128.1 123.3 112.2 95.9 85.8 93.9 100.0
2012 99.4 93.7 89.5 86.7 93.1 109.5
128.5 131.2 97.7 90.4 90.6 96.6 100.6
2013 86.5 89.9 87.4 88.9 95.8 111.2
122.3 121.4 104.5 99.4 88.0 97.2 99.4
2014 94.9 85.1 91.3 88.5 95.1 106.0
121.9 128.0 118.3 96.6 87.3 95.7 100.7

2015 95.1 86.6 91.1 87.5 94.7 104.5

123.7 128.0 112.6 95.3 86.3 94.4 100.0

AVGE 99.1 90.1 94.4 90.7 95.9 103.4

117.5 116.6 104.3 98.2 91.5 99.1

Table Total- 34828.37 Mean- 100.08 Std. Dev.- 9.82

Min - 84.47 Max - 131.18

D 8.A F-tests for seasonality

Test for the presence of seasonality assuming stability.

Sum of squares Dgrs.freedom Mean square F-value

Between months 26778.8094 11 2434.43722 120.736**
Residual 6774.8929 336 20.16337
Total 33553.7022 347

**Seasonality present at the 0.1 per cent level.

Nonparametric Test for the Presence of Seasonality Assuming Stability

Kruskal-Wallis statistic Dgrs.freedom Probability level

281.3852 11 0.000%

Seasonality present at the one percent level.

Moving Seasonality Test

Sum of squares Dgrs.freedom Mean square F-value

Between Years 2313.9547 28 82.641240 7.347**
Error 3464.3190 308 11.247789

**Moving seasonality present at the one percent level.

COMBINED TEST FOR THE PRESENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE SEASONALITY

IDENTIFIABLE SEASONALITY PRESENT

D 8.B Final unmodified SI ratios, with labels for outliers and extreme values
From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 103.1 92.7 99.6 95.1 95.4 97.4
 108.1 107.7 103.7 99.1 92.2* 103.4
1988 101.7 94.4 99.7 93.2 94.8 100.7
107.8 107.5 98.5* 98.0 96.1 103.1
1989 104.0 94.1 98.6 98.4* 94.9 99.5
107.6 104.8 103.8 100.2 97.2 103.4

1990 104.2 90.6* 99.4 94.1 93.8 101.1

104.9 103.2* 102.3 103.0* 95.9 109.6*
1991 104.6 92.9 100.0 90.7 94.2 96.8*
112.2* 109.9 98.0* 98.4 95.7 104.5
1992 105.8 93.8 98.8 89.5* 95.3 97.8
107.1 109.4 105.0 99.3 94.1 102.9
1993 102.6 94.7 97.8 92.9 97.0 99.5
108.3 107.4 103.3 97.0 96.8 104.8
1994 101.8 92.6 94.9 93.5 96.6 101.4
109.9 110.4 103.3 97.8 94.8 96.8*

1995 106.7* 90.7 96.5 93.4 94.1 102.5

113.5 111.7 100.7 98.7 95.9 101.9
1996 96.6* 96.8* 95.7 90.7 97.3 99.8*
113.2 116.6* 101.6 99.1 96.5 101.0
1997 99.8 85.3* 94.2 88.8 99.0 106.6
112.6 112.0 102.3 100.5 92.2 101.6
1998 99.5 89.3 96.2 89.3 95.8 105.0
116.9 111.2 106.2 96.5 93.2 102.4
1999 94.3* 90.2 90.2* 90.4 99.0 105.4
113.3 115.0 104.1 99.1 92.6 98.4

2000 97.1 93.1* 94.3 92.0 100.8* 100.2*

112.8 113.4 104.5 100.0 91.8# 98.6#
2001 99.7 89.6 92.9 92.0 98.3 103.3
117.2 115.2 103.6 103.0 87.4* 96.9#
2002 101.6 86.8* 94.1 91.1 96.9 106.0
118.0 114.5 105.5 101.1 92.9* 95.2
2003 99.0 88.8 93.2 90.3 94.5 106.8
127.9* 123.8* 101.9* 101.4 86.2 90.5*
2004 99.2 88.6 95.6 90.4 94.9 102.3
121.0 120.2 105.3 99.9 86.8 97.4

2005 97.2 91.0* 93.8 88.3 96.9 104.3

122.7 117.8 105.0 97.9 88.4 101.2*
2006 99.7 87.5 92.8 89.6 96.7 105.3
122.9 119.0 104.7 97.9 93.1* 95.2
2007 98.2 88.8 93.1 87.8 95.6 107.6
121.8 121.3 105.8 94.6 91.4* 96.5#
2008 96.8 87.0 91.4 89.6 96.5 103.8
125.6 123.9 108.1* 93.6 89.0 95.9
2009 97.1 89.2 90.7 86.6 93.9 106.6
130.1 129.2* 101.5* 95.0 88.3 97.0#

2010 96.3 85.0 92.3 89.2 95.6 105.0

128.1 125.0 101.6 98.1 87.3 98.9
2011 92.8 84.5 93.1 90.6 95.3 104.0
128.1 123.3 112.2* 95.9 85.8 93.9
2012 99.4 93.7* 89.5 86.7 93.1 109.5
128.5 131.2* 97.7* 90.4* 90.6* 96.6
2013 86.5* 89.9 87.4 88.9 95.8 111.2
122.3 121.4 104.5 99.4 88.0 97.2
2014 94.9 85.1 91.3 88.5 95.1 106.0
 121.9 128.0 118.3* 96.6 87.3 95.7

2015 95.1 86.6 91.1 87.5 94.7 104.5

123.7 128.0 112.6 95.3 86.3 94.4

Key to symbols:
* : extreme value as determined by X-11 extreme value procedure
# : regARIMA outlier (either AO, LS, TC, or Ramp)

D 9 Final replacement values for SI ratios

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
---------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
---------------------------------------------------------------
1987 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** 95.1 ********
1988 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** 102.5 ******** ******** ********
1989 ******** ******** ******** 93.6 ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

1990 ******** 90.9 ******** ******** ******** ********

******** 107.3 ******** 101.8 ******** 104.5
1991 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** 97.2
107.4 ******** 103.3 ******** ******** ********
1992 ******** ******** ******** 90.6 ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
1993 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
1994 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** 102.9

1995 101.6 ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
1996 101.0 90.9 ******** ******** ******** 101.3
******** 112.6 ******** ******** ******** ********
1997 ******** 90.1 ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
1998 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
1999 98.0 ******** 92.4 ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

2000 ******** 91.8 ******** ******** 99.5 103.0

******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
2001 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** 87.5 ********
2002 ******** 87.1 ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** 89.9 ********
2003 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
121.2 118.8 103.4 ******** ******** 96.0
2004 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

2005 ******** 90.5 ******** ******** ******** ********

******** ******** ******** ******** ******** 96.7
2006 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 ******** ******** ******** ******** 89.0 ********
2007 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** 90.8 ********
2008 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** 106.1 ******** ******** ********
2009 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** 126.0 101.7 ******** ******** ********

2010 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
2011 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** 106.9 ******** ******** ********
2012 ******** 88.6 ******** ******** ******** ********
******** 126.9 105.1 91.3 89.2 ********
2013 94.8 ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
2014 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
******** ******** 108.9 ******** ******** ********

2015 ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********

D 9.A Moving seasonality ratio

---------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
---------------------------------------------------------------
I 1.497 2.110 1.625 1.645 1.464 2.221
S 0.406 0.382 0.400 0.292 0.300 0.415
RATIO 3.693 5.532 4.064 5.631 4.882 5.348

---------------------------------------------------------------
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
---------------------------------------------------------------
I 1.493 1.812 1.690 2.125 1.733 1.341
S 0.709 0.619 0.301 0.375 0.412 0.403
RATIO 2.106 2.930 5.613 5.667 4.202 3.329

D 10 Final seasonal factors

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
Seasonal filter 3 x 5 moving average
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 103.1 93.2 99.3 94.0 94.8 99.4
107.4 106.7 103.1 99.4 96.1 103.4 100.0
1988 103.3 93.1 99.4 93.8 94.7 99.4
107.2 107.0 103.1 99.5 96.1 103.6 100.0
1989 103.6 93.1 99.4 93.3 94.7 99.4
107.0 107.3 103.1 99.6 96.0 103.7 100.0

1990 104.0 93.2 99.2 92.7 94.8 99.1

 107.0 107.7 103.3 99.5 95.9 103.8 100.0
1991 104.1 93.1 98.8 92.4 95.0 99.2
107.1 108.2 103.5 99.3 95.8 103.9 100.0
1992 103.8 93.0 98.2 92.3 95.3 99.3
107.9 108.9 103.4 98.9 95.7 103.8 100.0
1993 103.2 92.7 97.4 92.2 95.6 99.8
109.0 109.7 103.2 98.6 95.6 103.4 100.0
1994 102.4 92.3 96.6 92.0 96.0 100.8
110.3 110.4 102.8 98.6 95.6 102.9 100.1

1995 101.5 91.6 95.9 91.6 96.4 102.0

111.7 110.9 102.7 98.7 95.3 102.4 100.1
1996 100.7 90.8 95.3 91.1 96.7 103.2
112.9 111.7 102.7 98.8 94.7 101.9 100.0
1997 99.9 90.4 94.9 90.5 97.2 103.9
113.6 112.3 103.2 98.9 94.0 101.2 100.0
1998 99.3 90.3 94.4 90.3 97.7 104.4
114.1 112.9 103.7 99.3 93.0 100.4 100.0
1999 99.0 90.1 94.1 90.5 98.0 104.5
114.7 113.4 104.3 99.7 92.0 99.5 100.0

2000 99.0 89.7 93.7 90.7 97.9 104.7

115.6 114.2 104.5 100.3 90.7 98.4 100.0
2001 99.2 89.4 93.7 91.0 97.4 104.6
116.7 115.3 104.5 100.7 89.8 97.5 100.0
2002 99.3 89.1 93.7 90.8 96.9 104.6
118.2 116.4 104.5 100.9 88.7 96.9 100.0
2003 99.4 88.8 93.9 90.4 96.3 104.6
119.7 117.3 104.6 100.5 88.2 96.5 100.0
2004 99.1 88.7 93.7 89.8 96.0 104.9
121.0 118.3 104.8 99.6 88.1 96.4 100.0

2005 98.8 88.5 93.6 89.4 95.9 104.9

121.9 119.3 105.0 98.3 88.4 96.3 100.0
2006 98.2 88.6 93.0 88.9 95.9 105.1
123.1 120.5 105.0 97.0 88.8 96.4 100.0
2007 97.9 88.1 92.5 88.6 95.9 105.2
124.3 121.7 104.7 96.2 89.0 96.5 100.1
2008 97.2 87.6 92.1 88.5 95.6 105.5
125.6 122.9 104.4 95.8 88.8 96.5 100.0
2009 96.8 87.0 91.8 88.5 95.2 105.6
126.8 124.0 104.2 95.4 88.4 96.6 100.0

2010 96.2 87.0 91.3 88.5 94.9 106.1

127.4 124.5 104.2 95.4 88.0 96.6 100.0
2011 96.0 87.0 90.9 88.5 94.8 106.7
127.0 124.8 104.5 95.7 87.7 96.5 100.0
2012 95.7 87.1 90.6 88.5 94.8 107.1
126.0 125.0 105.6 96.0 87.5 96.3 100.0
2013 95.6 87.1 90.4 88.3 94.8 107.2
124.9 125.5 107.0 95.9 87.5 96.0 100.0
2014 95.4 87.4 90.2 88.1 94.8 107.1
124.0 125.9 108.2 96.1 87.4 95.8 100.0

2015 95.2 87.3 90.3 88.0 94.8 106.8

123.4 126.3 109.0 96.3 87.3 95.7 100.0

AVGE 99.6 89.8 94.4 90.4 95.8 103.6

117.1 116.2 104.4 98.2 91.4 99.3
 Table Total- 34806.46 Mean- 100.02 Std. Dev.- 9.42
Min - 86.99 Max - 127.37

D 10.A Final seasonal component forecasts

From 2016.Jan to 2016.Dec
Observations 12
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 94.9 87.1 90.5 88.0 94.9 106.3
123.1 126.6 109.5 96.5 87.2 95.6 100.0

D 11 Final seasonally adjusted data

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26.
27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 28. 326.
1988 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30.
29. 29. 28. 29. 29. 29. 347.
1989 30. 30. 30. 32. 30. 30.
30. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 364.

1990 31. 31. 32. 33. 33. 34.

33. 32. 33. 35. 34. 36. 397.
1991 34. 33. 34. 33. 33. 33.
36. 35. 33. 35. 36. 37. 413.
1992 37. 37. 37. 36. 37. 36.
37. 37. 38. 38. 37. 38. 444.
1993 38. 39. 39. 39. 39. 38.
38. 37. 38. 38. 39. 39. 463.
1994 39. 40. 39. 41. 41. 41.
41. 41. 42. 41. 41. 39. 486.

1995 44. 42. 44. 45. 43. 45.

46. 46. 45. 46. 46. 46. 536.
1996 44. 49. 46. 45. 46. 44.
46. 48. 46. 47. 48. 48. 556.
1997 48. 46. 49. 49. 51. 52.
50. 50. 50. 51. 49. 51. 598.
1998 51. 51. 53. 52. 52. 54.
55. 54. 56. 54. 56. 57. 643.
1999 53. 56. 54. 57. 59. 60.
59. 61. 60. 60. 61. 60. 700.

2000 59. 63. 61. 61. 62. 57.

58. 59. 60. 61. 76. 83. 761.
2001 65. 65. 65. 67. 67. 66.
68. 68. 67. 69. 66. 59. 793.
2002 70. 67. 69. 70. 70. 71.
70. 69. 71. 70. 74. 69. 839.
2003 70. 71. 71. 72. 71. 75.
79. 78. 72. 75. 72. 70. 875.
 2004 75. 76. 78. 77. 76. 75.
77. 79. 79. 80. 79. 81. 933.

2005 80. 83. 81. 80. 82. 81.

81. 80. 81. 81. 82. 86. 979.
2006 84. 82. 84. 85. 85. 85.
84. 83. 84. 85. 88. 84. 1013.
2007 86. 87. 87. 86. 87. 90.
86. 89. 91. 89. 93. 128. 1097.
2008 91. 91. 91. 93. 93. 91.
92. 93. 95. 90. 93. 92. 1106.
2009 93. 95. 92. 92. 93. 96.
98. 100. 93. 95. 96. 171. 1213.

2010 97. 96. 100. 100. 100. 99.

101. 101. 98. 104. 100. 103. 1199.
2011 97. 98. 104. 104. 102. 99.
103. 102. 111. 105. 104. 104. 1232.
2012 112. 117. 108. 109. 110. 116.
117. 121. 106. 108. 119. 115. 1357.
2013 105. 121. 114. 119. 119. 121.
113. 112. 113. 120. 117. 119. 1392.
2014 117. 114. 118. 117. 117. 116.
116. 121. 131. 120. 120. 120. 1427.

2015 120. 119. 121. 119. 120. 118.

122. 123. 126. 120. 120. 120. 1447.

AVGE 66. 67. 67. 68. 68. 68.

69. 69. 69. 69. 70. 74.

Table Total- 23937.92 Mean- 68.79 Std. Dev.- 30.32

Min - 26.41 Max - 170.56

Test for the presence of residual seasonality.

No evidence of residual seasonality in the entire series at the

1 per cent level. F = 1.60

No evidence of residual seasonality in the last 3 years at the

1 per cent level. F = 0.61

No evidence of residual seasonality in the last 3 years at the

5 per cent level.

Note: sudden large changes in the level of the adjusted series will
invalidate the results of this test for the last three year period.

D 12 Final trend cycle

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
Trend filter 13-term Henderson moving average
I/C ratio 2.96
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. 27.
27. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 326.
1988 28. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29.
29. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30. 348.
1989 30. 30. 30. 30. 30. 30.
30. 30. 30. 31. 31. 31. 362.

1990 31. 32. 32. 33. 33. 33.

33. 34. 34. 34. 34. 34. 396.
1991 34. 34. 33. 33. 33. 34.
34. 35. 35. 36. 36. 37. 414.
1992 37. 37. 37. 37. 37. 37.
37. 37. 37. 37. 38. 38. 445.
1993 38. 39. 39. 39. 39. 38.
38. 38. 38. 38. 39. 39. 462.
1994 39. 40. 40. 40. 41. 41.
41. 41. 41. 41. 42. 42. 489.

1995 42. 43. 43. 44. 44. 45.

45. 45. 45. 46. 46. 46. 534.
1996 46. 46. 46. 45. 45. 45.
46. 46. 47. 47. 48. 48. 554.
1997 48. 49. 50. 50. 51. 51.
51. 51. 50. 50. 50. 51. 601.
1998 51. 51. 52. 52. 53. 53.
54. 54. 55. 55. 55. 56. 642.
1999 56. 56. 57. 58. 58. 59.
60. 60. 60. 60. 60. 60. 704.

2000 61. 61. 61. 61. 60. 60.

59. 59. 60. 61. 62. 64. 729.
2001 64. 65. 66. 66. 67. 67.
67. 68. 68. 68. 68. 68. 803.
2002 68. 69. 69. 70. 70. 70.
70. 70. 70. 70. 70. 70. 836.
2003 70. 70. 71. 72. 73. 74.
74. 74. 74. 74. 74. 74. 874.
2004 75. 76. 76. 76. 76. 77.
77. 78. 79. 80. 80. 81. 932.

2005 81. 81. 81. 81. 81. 81.

81. 81. 81. 81. 82. 82. 975.
2006 83. 83. 84. 84. 84. 84.
84. 84. 84. 84. 84. 85. 1010.
2007 85. 86. 87. 87. 87. 88.
88. 89. 90. 90. 91. 91. 1059.
2008 91. 92. 92. 92. 92. 92.
92. 92. 92. 92. 93. 93. 1106.
2009 93. 93. 93. 94. 94. 95.
95. 96. 96. 96. 96. 96. 1135.

2010 97. 98. 99. 99. 100. 100.

100. 101. 101. 101. 101. 101. 1197.
2011 101. 101. 101. 101. 102. 102.
102. 103. 103. 105. 106. 107. 1233.
2012 108. 109. 110. 111. 112. 114.
115. 115. 115. 114. 114. 115. 1351.
2013 116. 117. 118. 118. 117. 117.
116. 115. 116. 116. 117. 117. 1400.
2014 117. 117. 116. 116. 117. 118.
118. 119. 120. 120. 120. 120. 1418.
 2015 120. 119. 119. 119. 120. 121.
122. 122. 122. 122. 121. 121. 1449.

AVGE 67. 67. 67. 68. 68. 68.

69. 69. 69. 69. 69. 70.

Table Total- 23785.50 Mean- 68.35 Std. Dev.- 29.59

Min - 26.66 Max - 122.14

D 13 Final irregular component

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S.D.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 100.1 99.3 100.2 101.0 100.3 97.6
100.5 100.9 100.7 99.9 96.3 100.3 1.4
1988 98.6 101.4 100.1 99.1 99.7 101.0
100.4 100.5 95.7 98.7 100.3 99.7 1.5
1989 100.4 101.0 99.2 105.3 100.2 100.1
100.5 97.7 100.7 100.5 101.2 99.6 1.8

1990 100.2 97.2 100.3 101.7 99.2 102.2

98.1 95.9 98.9 103.2 99.6 105.1 2.5
1991 100.2 99.6 101.4 98.6 99.7 98.1
105.2 101.9 94.7 98.8 99.5 100.1 2.4
1992 101.4 100.5 100.6 97.2 100.4 98.8
99.6 100.8 101.7 100.5 98.3 99.0 1.3
1993 99.2 101.8 100.0 100.4 101.3 99.7
99.5 98.2 100.4 98.7 101.4 101.4 1.1
1994 99.3 100.1 97.9 101.3 100.3 100.5
99.5 100.2 100.6 99.5 99.4 94.2 1.9

1995 105.2 99.0 100.6 101.7 97.4 100.4

101.5 100.7 98.1 100.1 100.7 99.5 2.0
1996 95.9 106.6 100.5 99.7 100.7 96.7
100.3 104.3 98.7 100.3 101.8 99.2 2.8
1997 100.0 94.6 99.5 98.2 101.9 102.4
98.9 99.4 98.9 101.7 98.2 100.6 2.1
1998 100.4 99.2 102.1 99.0 98.0 100.5
102.3 98.3 102.3 97.1 100.3 102.1 1.7
1999 95.3 100.3 95.9 99.9 100.9 100.8
98.7 101.4 99.9 99.6 100.8 98.9 2.0

2000 97.9 103.4 100.3 101.1 103.0 95.9

97.9 99.7 100.3 99.8 121.3 129.8 10.8
2001 100.2 100.0 98.9 100.9 100.8 98.7
100.5 100.1 99.3 102.5 97.5 86.3 4.1
2002 102.4 97.4 100.5 100.2 99.9 101.2
99.6 98.3 101.0 100.2 104.9 98.5 1.9
2003 99.9 100.4 99.6 100.0 98.1 101.9
106.5 105.2 97.2 100.9 98.0 94.0 3.2
2004 100.3 100.0 102.0 100.7 98.9 97.5
100.0 101.6 100.5 100.3 98.5 101.0 1.2

2005 98.3 102.6 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.5

100.8 98.9 100.2 99.7 100.0 104.9 1.8
 2006 101.3 98.6 99.5 100.6 100.8 100.2
100.0 99.0 99.9 100.9 104.8 98.6 1.6
2007 100.2 100.6 100.6 99.0 99.7 102.2
98.0 99.7 101.1 98.3 102.7 140.2 11.7
2008 99.5 99.4 99.3 101.3 100.9 98.4
99.9 100.7 103.5 97.8 100.2 99.4 1.4
2009 100.4 102.7 99.0 97.9 98.6 100.9
102.4 104.0 97.2 99.6 100.0 177.6 22.5

2010 100.2 97.9 101.2 100.9 100.6 98.8

100.3 100.3 97.4 102.9 99.5 102.7 1.6
2011 96.8 97.2 102.4 102.2 100.3 97.3
100.7 98.8 107.5 100.4 98.0 97.4 3.0
2012 103.9 107.6 98.7 97.8 98.1 102.1
101.9 105.0 92.6 94.3 103.6 100.3 4.2
2013 90.4 103.0 96.5 100.5 101.0 103.8
98.0 96.8 97.8 103.7 100.5 101.2 3.7
2014 99.4 97.4 101.3 100.6 100.5 99.1
98.3 101.6 109.2 100.4 99.7 99.9 2.9

2015 100.0 99.4 101.1 99.7 100.2 97.9

100.2 101.1 103.0 98.7 98.7 98.7 1.3

S.D. 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.9

2.0 2.3 3.3 1.8 4.4 17.5

Table Total- 34970.67 Mean- 100.49 Std. Dev.- 5.57

Min - 86.31 Max - 177.55

D 16 Combined adjustment factors

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 103.1 93.2 99.3 94.0 94.8 99.4
107.4 106.7 103.1 99.4 96.1 103.4 100.0
1988 103.3 93.1 99.4 93.8 94.7 99.4
107.2 107.0 103.1 99.5 96.1 103.6 100.0
1989 103.6 93.1 99.4 93.3 94.7 99.4
107.0 107.3 103.1 99.6 96.0 103.7 100.0

1990 104.0 93.2 99.2 92.7 94.8 99.1

107.0 107.7 103.3 99.5 95.9 103.8 100.0
1991 104.1 93.1 98.8 92.4 95.0 99.2
107.1 108.2 103.5 99.3 95.8 103.9 100.0
1992 103.8 93.0 98.2 92.3 95.3 99.3
107.9 108.9 103.4 98.9 95.7 103.8 100.0
1993 103.2 92.7 97.4 92.2 95.6 99.8
109.0 109.7 103.2 98.6 95.6 103.4 100.0
1994 102.4 92.3 96.6 92.0 96.0 100.8
110.3 110.4 102.8 98.6 95.6 102.9 100.1

1995 101.5 91.6 95.9 91.6 96.4 102.0

111.7 110.9 102.7 98.7 95.3 102.4 100.1
1996 100.7 90.8 95.3 91.1 96.7 103.2
112.9 111.7 102.7 98.8 94.7 101.9 100.0
1997 99.9 90.4 94.9 90.5 97.2 103.9
 113.6 112.3 103.2 98.9 94.0 101.2 100.0
1998 99.3 90.3 94.4 90.3 97.7 104.4
114.1 112.9 103.7 99.3 93.0 100.4 100.0
1999 99.0 90.1 94.1 90.5 98.0 104.5
114.7 113.4 104.3 99.7 92.0 99.5 100.0

2000 99.0 89.7 93.7 90.7 97.9 104.7

115.6 114.2 104.5 100.3 90.7 98.4 100.0
2001 99.2 89.4 93.7 91.0 97.4 104.6
116.7 115.3 104.5 100.7 89.8 97.5 100.0
2002 99.3 89.1 93.7 90.8 96.9 104.6
118.2 116.4 104.5 100.9 88.7 96.9 100.0
2003 99.4 88.8 93.9 90.4 96.3 104.6
119.7 117.3 104.6 100.5 88.2 96.5 100.0
2004 99.1 88.7 93.7 89.8 96.0 104.9
121.0 118.3 104.8 99.6 88.1 96.4 100.0

2005 98.8 88.5 93.6 89.4 95.9 104.9

121.9 119.3 105.0 98.3 88.4 96.3 100.0
2006 98.2 88.6 93.0 88.9 95.9 105.1
123.1 120.5 105.0 97.0 88.8 96.4 100.0
2007 97.9 88.1 92.5 88.6 95.9 105.2
124.3 121.7 104.7 96.2 89.0 96.5 100.1
2008 97.2 87.6 92.1 88.5 95.6 105.5
125.6 122.9 104.4 95.8 88.8 96.5 100.0
2009 96.8 87.0 91.8 88.5 95.2 105.6
126.8 124.0 104.2 95.4 88.4 96.6 100.0

2010 96.2 87.0 91.3 88.5 94.9 106.1

127.4 124.5 104.2 95.4 88.0 96.6 100.0
2011 96.0 87.0 90.9 88.5 94.8 106.7
127.0 124.8 104.5 95.7 87.7 96.5 100.0
2012 95.7 87.1 90.6 88.5 94.8 107.1
126.0 125.0 105.6 96.0 87.5 96.3 100.0
2013 95.6 87.1 90.4 88.3 94.8 107.2
124.9 125.5 107.0 95.9 87.5 96.0 100.0
2014 95.4 87.4 90.2 88.1 94.8 107.1
124.0 125.9 108.2 96.1 87.4 95.8 100.0

2015 95.2 87.3 90.3 88.0 94.8 106.8

123.4 126.3 109.0 96.3 87.3 95.7 100.0

AVGE 99.6 89.8 94.4 90.4 95.8 103.6

117.1 116.2 104.4 98.2 91.4 99.3

Table Total- 34806.46 Mean- 100.02 Std. Dev.- 9.42

Min - 86.99 Max - 127.37

D 16.A Combined adjustment component forecasts

From 2016.Jan to 2016.Dec
Observations 12
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 94.9 87.1 90.5 88.0 94.9 106.3
123.1 126.6 109.5 96.5 87.2 95.6 100.0
E 4 Ratios of annual totals
From 1987 to 2015
Observations 29
-----------------------------------
Year Unmodified Modified
(D11) (E3)
-----------------------------------
1987 100.05 100.05
1988 100.01 100.01
1989 99.96 99.99

1990 100.04 100.02

1991 100.12 100.10
1992 100.08 100.08
1993 99.96 99.96
1994 100.09 100.10

1995 100.15 100.14

1996 100.00 100.06
1997 100.11 100.07
1998 100.10 100.10
1999 100.11 100.11

2000 99.57 99.76

2001 100.08 100.05
2002 99.97 99.97
2003 100.34 100.14
2004 100.05 100.05

2005 99.97 99.99

2006 100.00 100.04
2007 99.92 100.04
2008 100.08 100.08
2009 100.02 100.24

2010 100.06 100.06

2011 100.06 100.06
2012 100.22 100.25
2013 99.86 99.82
2014 100.14 100.07

2015 100.17 100.17

E 5 Month-to-month percent change in the original series

From 1987.Feb to 2015.Dec
Observations 347
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 -10.1 7.7 -4.4 0.5 2.6
11.8 0.4 -3.1 -3.8 -6.5 12.6 0.7
1988 -1.2 -6.5 6.5 -5.7 2.5 6.7
7.5 -0.2 -8.3 -0.3 -1.7 7.8 0.6
1989 1.4 -9.2 5.1 -0.3 -3.6 4.9
8.4 -2.0 -0.3 -2.9 -2.3 7.1 0.5

1990 1.8 -12.0 11.4 -3.9 0.9 8.8

4.3 -1.2 -0.6 1.0 -6.7 14.2 1.5
1991 -4.9 -11.7 7.3 -9.3 4.4 3.6
17.3 -0.8 -9.7 1.6 -1.7 10.2 0.5
1992 1.9 -11.1 5.4 -9.6 6.6 2.9
10.2 2.8 -3.7 -5.1 -4.9 10.0 0.5
1993 0.7 -6.8 4.1 -4.9 4.0 1.6
7.8 -1.3 -3.7 -5.5 0.6 9.1 0.5
1994 -2.1 -8.4 3.3 -0.5 4.4 6.0
9.0 0.8 -6.4 -5.2 -2.8 2.9 0.1

1995 11.3 -14.1 7.8 -2.1 1.9 10.1

11.6 -1.0 -9.5 -1.7 -2.7 6.4 1.5
1996 -5.1 0.2 -1.5 -5.6 7.0 2.5
14.0 3.9 -11.9 -1.2 -1.6 5.6 0.5
1997 -0.2 -13.6 11.7 -4.7 12.4 8.0
5.5 -0.9 -9.0 -1.8 -8.0 10.9 0.9
1998 -1.4 -9.6 8.5 -6.3 8.3 10.6
12.5 -4.0 -3.7 -8.5 -3.0 10.2 1.1
1999 -7.4 -3.7 0.8 1.4 10.9 7.9
8.6 2.1 -9.2 -4.8 -6.6 6.5 0.6

2000 -0.9 -3.8 1.4 -2.8 8.8 -1.4

12.1 0.9 -6.8 -2.7 12.2 18.2 2.9
2001 -21.0 -9.0 4.6 -0.2 7.6 5.8
14.0 -1.4 -9.9 -0.5 -15.0 -3.7 -2.4
2002 21.2 -14.1 9.1 -2.7 6.8 9.7
11.5 -2.8 -7.8 -4.2 -8.0 2.5 1.8
2003 4.1 -9.9 5.8 -2.1 6.0 14.0
20.5 -3.0 -17.7 -0.6 -14.8 5.7 0.7
2004 10.6 -10.1 8.4 -5.2 5.2 8.3
19.2 0.4 -11.4 -4.2 -12.6 12.7 1.8

2005 0.1 -6.1 3.2 -5.9 9.7 7.5

17.5 -4.0 -10.6 -6.5 -9.3 15.1 0.9
2006 -1.0 -11.7 6.6 -3.0 8.3 9.0
16.8 -3.3 -12.2 -6.5 -4.7 2.7 0.1
2007 3.8 -9.0 5.6 -5.2 9.4 13.1
13.8 0.3 -12.1 -10.0 -2.9 48.7 4.6
2008 -28.3 -9.8 5.3 -1.7 7.8 7.8
20.9 -1.5 -12.7 -13.3 -4.7 8.0 -1.8
2009 1.4 -8.0 2.0 -4.1 9.0 14.3
22.6 -0.3 -21.4 -6.4 -7.0 94.9 8.1

2010 -43.2 -10.8 9.5 -2.8 7.5 9.9

22.2 -2.1 -18.5 -3.3 -11.0 13.2 -2.4
2011 -6.2 -8.9 10.4 -2.5 5.6 9.5
23.6 -3.3 -8.3 -13.6 -9.4 10.5 0.6
2012 6.6 -5.0 -3.6 -2.1 8.8 18.9
18.4 2.5 -25.6 -7.7 0.2 7.0 1.5
2013 -9.7 4.8 -2.0 1.8 7.3 15.4
9.3 -1.0 -13.8 -4.5 -11.1 10.8 0.6
2014 -2.4 -10.6 7.1 -3.0 7.9 12.1
15.6 5.6 -7.1 -18.1 -9.6 9.6 0.6

2015 -0.7 -9.0 5.1 -3.8 8.8 10.9

19.0 3.7 -12.1 -15.6 -9.6 9.6 0.5

AVGE -2.5 -8.5 5.4 -3.5 6.4 8.3

14.0 -0.4 -9.9 -5.4 -5.7 13.1
 Table Total- 328.45 Mean- 0.95 Std. Dev.- 10.78
Min - -43.23 Max - 94.91

E 6 Month-to-month percent change in seasonally adjusted series (D11)

From 1987.Feb to 2015.Dec
Observations 347
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 -0.6 1.1 1.1 -0.4 -2.2
3.6 1.0 0.4 -0.3 -3.2 4.6 0.5
1988 -1.1 3.6 -0.2 -0.0 1.4 1.7
-0.4 0.0 -4.8 3.2 1.9 -0.0 0.4
1989 1.3 1.1 -1.6 6.2 -5.0 -0.0
0.6 -2.3 3.8 0.6 1.3 -0.9 0.4

1990 1.5 -1.8 4.5 2.8 -1.3 4.0

-3.4 -1.8 3.6 4.9 -3.3 5.5 1.3
1991 -5.1 -1.4 1.2 -3.0 1.5 -0.7
8.6 -1.7 -5.6 5.9 1.9 1.6 0.3
1992 2.0 -0.7 -0.1 -3.8 3.2 -1.3
1.5 1.9 1.4 -0.8 -1.7 1.4 0.2
1993 1.3 3.8 -0.9 0.6 0.3 -2.7
-1.3 -1.9 2.4 -1.1 3.8 0.9 0.4
1994 -1.2 1.6 -1.3 4.5 0.0 1.0
-0.5 0.8 0.5 -1.1 0.3 -4.5 0.0

1995 12.8 -4.8 2.9 2.5 -3.1 4.0

1.9 -0.4 -2.2 2.3 0.8 -1.0 1.3
1996 -3.5 11.0 -6.1 -1.1 0.8 -3.9
4.2 5.0 -4.2 2.8 2.6 -1.8 0.5
1997 1.7 -4.5 6.4 -0.1 4.7 1.0
-3.5 0.2 -0.9 2.5 -3.2 3.1 0.6
1998 0.5 -0.6 3.7 -2.1 0.1 3.6
2.9 -3.0 4.9 -4.5 3.6 2.1 0.9
1999 -6.1 5.9 -3.5 5.5 2.3 1.3
-1.0 3.3 -1.3 -0.4 1.2 -1.5 0.5

2000 -0.5 6.2 -2.9 0.3 0.9 -7.9

1.5 2.1 2.0 1.3 24.0 9.0 3.0
2001 -21.7 1.0 -0.2 2.8 0.6 -1.5
2.1 -0.2 -0.7 3.3 -4.7 -11.4 -2.5
2002 19.0 -4.3 3.8 0.4 0.1 1.6
-1.4 -1.3 2.7 -0.8 4.7 -6.1 1.5
2003 1.5 0.8 0.1 1.6 -0.5 5.0
5.2 -1.0 -7.8 3.5 -2.9 -3.5 0.2
2004 7.7 0.5 2.6 -1.1 -1.6 -0.9
3.4 2.7 -0.0 0.7 -1.1 3.0 1.3

2005 -2.3 4.7 -2.3 -1.5 2.2 -1.7

1.1 -1.9 1.5 -0.1 0.9 5.7 0.5
2006 -2.9 -2.0 1.5 1.5 0.4 -0.5
-0.3 -1.3 0.7 1.2 4.2 -5.4 -0.2
2007 2.2 1.1 0.6 -1.0 1.2 3.0
-3.7 2.5 2.1 -2.0 5.0 37.2 4.0
2008 -28.8 0.1 0.1 2.3 -0.2 -2.4
1.5 0.7 2.7 -5.5 2.8 -0.6 -2.3
2009 1.1 2.3 -3.3 -0.6 1.3 3.1
 2.1 1.9 -6.5 2.2 0.4 78.4 6.9

2010 -43.0 -1.3 4.3 0.3 0.2 -1.6

1.8 0.2 -2.7 5.6 -3.5 3.1 -3.0
2011 -5.7 0.6 5.6 0.1 -1.4 -2.7
3.8 -1.6 9.5 -5.6 -1.2 0.4 0.2
2012 7.5 4.4 -7.4 0.3 1.5 5.2
0.6 3.4 -12.0 1.6 9.9 -2.7 1.0
2013 -9.1 15.1 -5.6 4.3 -0.0 2.0
-6.2 -1.5 1.1 6.5 -2.5 1.0 0.4
2014 -1.7 -2.4 3.7 -0.7 0.3 -0.8
-0.2 4.0 8.0 -7.7 -0.6 0.0 0.1

2015 -0.1 -0.8 1.7 -1.3 1.0 -1.5

3.0 1.3 1.9 -4.4 -0.3 -0.0 0.0

AVGE -2.6 1.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1

0.9 0.4 0.0 0.5 1.4 4.1

Table Total- 221.64 Mean- 0.64 Std. Dev.- 6.72

Min - -43.03 Max - 78.41

E 7 Month-to-month percent change in final trend cycle (D12)

From 1987.Feb to 2015.Dec
Observations 347
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
1988 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5
0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5
1989 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.0
0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4

1990 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9

0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.8
1991 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.9
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6
1992 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.3
0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3
1993 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.6 -1.1
-1.1 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.2
1994 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8
0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6

1995 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0

0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.8
1996 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.1
0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4
1997 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5
-0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5
1998 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1
1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8
1999 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3
1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7

2000 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1

 -0.6 0.3 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.8 0.4
2001 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6
0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6
2002 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2
0.2 0.1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.2
2003 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2
0.7 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.6 0.5
2004 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4
0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.7

2005 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.0 -0.2 -0.3

-0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2
2006 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3
2007 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6
2008 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
-0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
2009 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8
0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.0 0.5 0.3

2010 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.4
2011 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.5
2012 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1
0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.6
2013 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 -0.5 -0.7
-0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2
2014 -0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2

2015 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7

0.7 0.4 -0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.0 0.1

AVGE 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

Table Total- 152.32 Mean- 0.44 Std. Dev.- 0.67

Min - -1.14 Max - 2.00

E 8 Month-to-month percent change in original series adjusted for calendar

factors (A18)
From 1987.Feb to 2015.Dec
Observations 347
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 -10.1 7.7 -4.4 0.5 2.6
11.8 0.4 -3.1 -3.8 -6.5 12.6 0.7
1988 -1.2 -6.5 6.5 -5.7 2.5 6.7
7.5 -0.2 -8.3 -0.3 -1.7 7.8 0.6
1989 1.4 -9.2 5.1 -0.3 -3.6 4.9
8.4 -2.0 -0.3 -2.9 -2.3 7.1 0.5

1990 1.8 -12.0 11.4 -3.9 0.9 8.8

4.3 -1.2 -0.6 1.0 -6.7 14.2 1.5
1991 -4.9 -11.7 7.3 -9.3 4.4 3.6
 17.3 -0.8 -9.7 1.6 -1.7 10.2 0.5
1992 1.9 -11.1 5.4 -9.6 6.6 2.9
10.2 2.8 -3.7 -5.1 -4.9 10.0 0.5
1993 0.7 -6.8 4.1 -4.9 4.0 1.6
7.8 -1.3 -3.7 -5.5 0.6 9.1 0.5
1994 -2.1 -8.4 3.3 -0.5 4.4 6.0
9.0 0.8 -6.4 -5.2 -2.8 2.9 0.1

1995 11.3 -14.1 7.8 -2.1 1.9 10.1

11.6 -1.0 -9.5 -1.7 -2.7 6.4 1.5
1996 -5.1 0.2 -1.5 -5.6 7.0 2.5
14.0 3.9 -11.9 -1.2 -1.6 5.6 0.5
1997 -0.2 -13.6 11.7 -4.7 12.4 8.0
5.5 -0.9 -9.0 -1.8 -8.0 10.9 0.9
1998 -1.4 -9.6 8.5 -6.3 8.3 10.6
12.5 -4.0 -3.7 -8.5 -3.0 10.2 1.1
1999 -7.4 -3.7 0.8 1.4 10.9 7.9
8.6 2.1 -9.2 -4.8 -6.6 6.5 0.6

2000 -0.9 -3.8 1.4 -2.8 8.8 -1.4

12.1 0.9 -6.8 -2.7 12.2 18.2 2.9
2001 -21.0 -9.0 4.6 -0.2 7.6 5.8
14.0 -1.4 -9.9 -0.5 -15.0 -3.7 -2.4
2002 21.2 -14.1 9.1 -2.7 6.8 9.7
11.5 -2.8 -7.8 -4.2 -8.0 2.5 1.8
2003 4.1 -9.9 5.8 -2.1 6.0 14.0
20.5 -3.0 -17.7 -0.6 -14.8 5.7 0.7
2004 10.6 -10.1 8.4 -5.2 5.2 8.3
19.2 0.4 -11.4 -4.2 -12.6 12.7 1.8

2005 0.1 -6.1 3.2 -5.9 9.7 7.5

17.5 -4.0 -10.6 -6.5 -9.3 15.1 0.9
2006 -1.0 -11.7 6.6 -3.0 8.3 9.0
16.8 -3.3 -12.2 -6.5 -4.7 2.7 0.1
2007 3.8 -9.0 5.6 -5.2 9.4 13.1
13.8 0.3 -12.1 -10.0 -2.9 48.7 4.6
2008 -28.3 -9.8 5.3 -1.7 7.8 7.8
20.9 -1.5 -12.7 -13.3 -4.7 8.0 -1.8
2009 1.4 -8.0 2.0 -4.1 9.0 14.3
22.6 -0.3 -21.4 -6.4 -7.0 94.9 8.1

2010 -43.2 -10.8 9.5 -2.8 7.5 9.9

22.2 -2.1 -18.5 -3.3 -11.0 13.2 -2.4
2011 -6.2 -8.9 10.4 -2.5 5.6 9.5
23.6 -3.3 -8.3 -13.6 -9.4 10.5 0.6
2012 6.6 -5.0 -3.6 -2.1 8.8 18.9
18.4 2.5 -25.6 -7.7 0.2 7.0 1.5
2013 -9.7 4.8 -2.0 1.8 7.3 15.4
9.3 -1.0 -13.8 -4.5 -11.1 10.8 0.6
2014 -2.4 -10.6 7.1 -3.0 7.9 12.1
15.6 5.6 -7.1 -18.1 -9.6 9.6 0.6

2015 -0.7 -9.0 5.1 -3.8 8.8 10.9

19.0 3.7 -12.1 -15.6 -9.6 9.6 0.5

AVGE -2.5 -8.5 5.4 -3.5 6.4 8.3

14.0 -0.4 -9.9 -5.4 -5.7 13.1

Table Total- 328.45 Mean- 0.95 Std. Dev.- 99.63

 Min - -43.23 Max - 94.91

E 18 Final adjustment ratios

From 1987.Jan to 2015.Dec
Observations 348
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 103.1 93.2 99.3 94.0 94.8 99.4
107.4 106.7 103.1 99.4 96.1 103.4 100.0
1988 103.3 93.1 99.4 93.8 94.7 99.4
107.2 107.0 103.1 99.5 96.1 103.6 100.0
1989 103.6 93.1 99.4 93.3 94.7 99.4
107.0 107.3 103.1 99.6 96.0 103.7 100.0

1990 104.0 93.2 99.2 92.7 94.8 99.1

107.0 107.7 103.3 99.5 95.9 103.8 100.0
1991 104.1 93.1 98.8 92.4 95.0 99.2
107.1 108.2 103.5 99.3 95.8 103.9 100.0
1992 103.8 93.0 98.2 92.3 95.3 99.3
107.9 108.9 103.4 98.9 95.7 103.8 100.0
1993 103.2 92.7 97.4 92.2 95.6 99.8
109.0 109.7 103.2 98.6 95.6 103.4 100.0
1994 102.4 92.3 96.6 92.0 96.0 100.8
110.3 110.4 102.8 98.6 95.6 102.9 100.1

1995 101.5 91.6 95.9 91.6 96.4 102.0

111.7 110.9 102.7 98.7 95.3 102.4 100.1
1996 100.7 90.8 95.3 91.1 96.7 103.2
112.9 111.7 102.7 98.8 94.7 101.9 100.0
1997 99.9 90.4 94.9 90.5 97.2 103.9
113.6 112.3 103.2 98.9 94.0 101.2 100.0
1998 99.3 90.3 94.4 90.3 97.7 104.4
114.1 112.9 103.7 99.3 93.0 100.4 100.0
1999 99.0 90.1 94.1 90.5 98.0 104.5
114.7 113.4 104.3 99.7 92.0 99.5 100.0

2000 99.0 89.7 93.7 90.7 97.9 104.7

115.6 114.2 104.5 100.3 90.7 98.4 100.0
2001 99.2 89.4 93.7 91.0 97.4 104.6
116.7 115.3 104.5 100.7 89.8 97.5 100.0
2002 99.3 89.1 93.7 90.8 96.9 104.6
118.2 116.4 104.5 100.9 88.7 96.9 100.0
2003 99.4 88.8 93.9 90.4 96.3 104.6
119.7 117.3 104.6 100.5 88.2 96.5 100.0
2004 99.1 88.7 93.7 89.8 96.0 104.9
121.0 118.3 104.8 99.6 88.1 96.4 100.0

2005 98.8 88.5 93.6 89.4 95.9 104.9

121.9 119.3 105.0 98.3 88.4 96.3 100.0
2006 98.2 88.6 93.0 88.9 95.9 105.1
123.1 120.5 105.0 97.0 88.8 96.4 100.0
2007 97.9 88.1 92.5 88.6 95.9 105.2
124.3 121.7 104.7 96.2 89.0 96.5 100.1
2008 97.2 87.6 92.1 88.5 95.6 105.5
125.6 122.9 104.4 95.8 88.8 96.5 100.0
2009 96.8 87.0 91.8 88.5 95.2 105.6
126.8 124.0 104.2 95.4 88.4 96.6 100.0
 2010 96.2 87.0 91.3 88.5 94.9 106.1
127.4 124.5 104.2 95.4 88.0 96.6 100.0
2011 96.0 87.0 90.9 88.5 94.8 106.7
127.0 124.8 104.5 95.7 87.7 96.5 100.0
2012 95.7 87.1 90.6 88.5 94.8 107.1
126.0 125.0 105.6 96.0 87.5 96.3 100.0
2013 95.6 87.1 90.4 88.3 94.8 107.2
124.9 125.5 107.0 95.9 87.5 96.0 100.0
2014 95.4 87.4 90.2 88.1 94.8 107.1
124.0 125.9 108.2 96.1 87.4 95.8 100.0

2015 95.2 87.3 90.3 88.0 94.8 106.8

123.4 126.3 109.0 96.3 87.3 95.7 100.0

AVGE 99.6 89.8 94.4 90.4 95.8 103.6

117.1 116.2 104.4 98.2 91.4 99.3

Table Total- 34806.46 Mean- 100.02 Std. Dev.- 9.42

Min - 86.99 Max - 127.37

E 18.A Final adjustment ratio forecasts

From 2016.Jan to 2016.Dec
Observations 12
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AVGE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 94.9 87.1 90.5 88.0 94.9 106.3
123.1 126.6 109.5 96.5 87.2 95.6 100.0

F 2. Summary Measures
F 2.A: Average percent change without regard to sign over the
indicated span
Span
in A1 D11 D13 D12 D10 A2 D18 F1
months O CI I C S P TD&H mcd
1 6.98 2.48 2.37 0.55 6.67 0.77 0.00 0.85
2 10.20 2.82 2.48 1.08 9.78 0.89 0.00 1.54
3 11.58 3.13 2.41 1.59 10.81 0.89 0.00 2.18
4 12.83 3.31 2.36 2.05 12.35 0.89 0.00 2.77
5 12.47 3.43 2.02 2.49 11.89 0.89 0.00 3.29
6 12.89 3.87 2.15 2.91 12.05 0.90 0.00 3.61
7 12.98 4.15 2.31 3.33 11.44 0.90 0.00 3.96
8 13.42 4.50 2.43 3.74 12.02 0.90 0.00 4.36
9 12.59 4.70 2.18 4.16 10.55 0.90 0.00 4.78
10 11.22 5.12 2.22 4.61 9.73 0.91 0.00 5.25
11 8.69 5.52 2.13 5.08 6.66 0.91 0.00 5.73
12 5.97 6.01 2.47 5.54 0.39 0.90 0.00 6.21

Span
in E1 E2 E3
months Mod.O Mod.CI Mod.I
1 6.87 2.05 1.93
2 10.10 2.34 1.99
3 11.38 2.73 1.93
4 12.66 2.94 1.86
 5 12.34 3.07 1.53
6 12.76 3.53 1.71
7 12.83 3.87 1.86
8 13.34 4.26 1.98
9 12.40 4.50 1.74
10 11.15 4.94 1.72
11 8.54 5.36 1.64
12 5.80 5.84 1.97

F 2.B: Relative contributions to the variance of the percent change

in the components of the original series
Span
in E3 D12 D10 A2 D18 RATIO
months I C S P TD&H TOTAL (X100)
1 7.58 0.61 90.59 1.22 00.00 100.00 103.94
2 3.89 1.15 94.18 0.77 00.00 100.00 99.62
3 2.99 2.03 94.34 0.64 00.00 100.00 95.50
4 2.15 2.62 94.75 0.49 00.00 100.00 100.53
5 1.56 4.11 93.80 0.53 00.00 100.00 99.01
6 1.85 5.40 92.24 0.51 00.00 100.00 96.56
7 2.37 7.56 89.51 0.55 00.00 100.00 88.87
8 2.40 8.57 88.54 0.50 00.00 100.00 91.75
9 2.28 13.07 84.03 0.62 00.00 100.00 86.17
10 2.48 17.73 79.11 0.69 00.00 100.00 96.24
11 3.65 34.99 60.24 1.12 00.00 100.00 100.85
12 10.89 86.39 0.42 2.29 00.00 100.00 105.54

F 2.C: Average percent change with regard to sign and standard

deviation over indicated span
Span A1 D13 D12
in O I C
months Avg. S.D. Avg. S.D. Avg. S.D.
1 0.77 8.50 0.05 3.22 0.44 0.51
2 1.63 12.76 0.05 3.33 0.88 0.99
3 2.43 15.65 0.04 3.25 1.34 1.42
4 3.10 16.85 0.05 3.18 1.79 1.78
5 3.59 16.73 0.04 2.90 2.25 2.08
6 4.09 16.26 0.05 2.90 2.72 2.31
7 4.52 15.85 0.05 3.19 3.18 2.51
8 5.02 16.63 0.05 3.27 3.64 2.67
9 5.29 15.75 0.04 2.99 4.10 2.81
10 5.39 13.23 0.04 2.97 4.57 2.92
11 5.41 9.26 0.05 2.99 5.04 3.01
12 5.55 4.72 0.06 3.37 5.51 3.07

Span D10 D11 F1

in S CI mcd
months Avg. S.D. Avg. S.D. Avg. S.D.
1 0.28 7.84 0.49 3.31 0.45 1.56
2 0.67 12.08 0.94 3.62 0.92 2.35
3 1.01 14.84 1.39 3.79 1.38 2.95
4 1.21 15.96 1.85 3.93 1.85 3.47
5 1.24 15.77 2.30 3.83 2.32 3.92
6 1.26 15.19 2.77 3.89 2.78 4.01
7 1.23 14.62 3.23 4.17 3.24 4.08
8 1.27 15.39 3.69 4.31 3.70 4.17
9 1.09 14.50 4.14 4.17 4.17 4.25
10 0.73 11.90 4.61 4.26 4.65 4.34
11 0.31 7.84 5.09 4.34 5.12 4.43
 12 -0.02 0.51 5.58 4.69 5.60 4.48

F 2.D: Average duration of run CI I C mcd

1.60 1.53 8.26 3.09

F 2.E: I/C Ratio for months span

SPAN 1 2 3 4 5 6
I/C 4.34 2.29 1.52 1.15 0.81 0.74

SPAN 7 8 9 10 11 12
I/C 0.70 0.65 0.52 0.48 0.42 0.45

months for cyclical dominance: 5

F 2.F: Relative contribution of the components to the stationary

portion of the variance in the original series

I C S P TD&H Total
2.67 19.59 77.38 15.00 0.00 114.63

F 2.G: The autocorrelation of the irregulars for spans 1 to 14

SPAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
ACF -0.10 -0.19 -0.11 -0.07 0.12 0.11 -0.07

SPAN 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
ACF -0.12 0.07 0.08 0.06 -0.20 -0.06 0.04

F 2.H: The final I/C Ratio from Table D12: 2.96

The final I/S Ratio from Table D10: 4.14

F 2.I: Statistic Prob.

level
F-test for stable seasonality from Table B 1. : 109.694 0.00%
F-test for stable seasonality from Table D 8. : 120.736 0.00%
Kruskal-Wallis Chi Squared test
for stable seasonality from Table D 8. : 281.385 0.00%
F-test for moving seasonality from Table D 8. : 7.347 0.00%

F 3. Monitoring and Quality Assessment Statistics

The measures below are between 0 and 3; acceptance region from 0 to 1.

1. The relative contribution of the irregular over three M1 = 0.301

months span (from Table F 2.B).
2. The relative contribution of the irregular component M2 = 0.315
to the stationary portion of the variance (from Table
F 2.F).
3. The amount of month to month change in the irregular M3 = 0.981
component as compared to the amount of month to month
change in the trend-cycle (from Table F2.H).
4. The amount of autocorrelation in the irregular as M4 = 0.231
described by the average duration of run (Table F 2.D).
5. The number of months it takes the change in the trend- M5 = 0.788
 cycle to surpass the amount of change in the irregular
(from Table F 2.E).
6. The amount of year to year change in the irregular as M6 = 0.056
compared to the amount of year to year change in the
seasonal (from Table F 2.H).
7. The amount of moving seasonality present relative to M7 = 0.347
the amount of stable seasonality (from Table F 2.I).
8. The size of the fluctuations in the seasonal component M8 = 0.422
throughout the whole series.
9. The average linear movement in the seasonal component M9 = 0.307
throughout the whole series.
10. Same as 8, calculated for recent years only. M10 = 0.331
11. Same as 9, calculated for recent years only. M11 = 0.322

*** ACCEPTED *** at the level 0.41

*** Q (without M2) = 0.43 ACCEPTED.
G 0 10*LOG(SPECTRUM) of the differenced, transformed Prior Adjusted Series
(Table B1). Spectrum estimated from 2008.Jan to 2015.Dec.
++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
-12.67I S I
-12.67
I S I
I S I
I S S I
-15.37I S S I
-15.37
I S S I
I S S I
I S S I
-18.07I S S I
-18.07
I S S I
I S S S I
I S S S I
-20.77I S S S S I
-20.77
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-23.47I S S S S I
-23.47
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-26.18I S* *S* S S* I
-26.18
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-28.88I *S** **S*** *S* S S* * I
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-47.79
++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
S=SEASONAL FREQUENCIES, T=TRADING DAY FREQUENCIES
G 1 10*LOG(SPECTRUM) of the differenced, transformed Seasonally Adjusted
Data (Table E2). Spectrum estimated from 2008.Jan to 2015.Dec.
++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
-25.39I * I
-25.39
I * I
I * I
I * I
-27.57I * I
-27.57
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-29.75I * * I
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-31.93I * * * I
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-47.17
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-53.70
++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
S=SEASONAL FREQUENCIES, T=TRADING DAY FREQUENCIES
G 2 10*LOG(SPECTRUM) of the Modified Irregular (Table E3).
Spectrum estimated from 2008.Jan to 2015.Dec.
++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
-19.98I * I
-19.98
I * I
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-22.11I * I
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-47.60
++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
S=SEASONAL FREQUENCIES, T=TRADING DAY FREQUENCIES