Recovering from a Fall in the World Order:

A United States Strategy

Adam Throne
March 9, 2017
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Executive Finding

The United States of America will not always be the world leader. Within the next

century, a variety of factors will lead to a change in the world order that has existed since World

War 2. These factors include domestic turmoil, foreign alliances, economic pressure, terrorism,

developing technology, and a changing global climate. If the United States does not adapt to

these rising matters, it will no longer maintain its leadership position capable of supporting the

world’s highest standard of living. However, if it does adapt, the United States will be able to not

only maintain its standing but also reach new heights of power on an international scale. This

paper explores the factors which may lead to the United States demise and also provides

solutions for these elements.

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Introduction

As it stands, the United States remains the leading world superpower. Since the collapse

of the Soviet Union, there has been no individual threat to surpass the nation. However, the

United States is not able to take its position of power for granted. Terrorism, economic

competition, foreign alliances, internal turmoil, and alliances by international powers collectively

threaten United States strategies. The recent Russian election hacking is just one example of

United States vulnerability. At its current trend, the United States will be surpassed in the

international order, and its freedoms and cherished lifestyle will be put at risk. This report

analyzes factors that will contribute to a United States fall in the world order, and it provides

potential solutions for each of these factors. The timeline for this collapse is difficult to

determine, so this paper assumes that it will begin in the next 15 years.

Domestic

In order to restore its international status, America must first ensure stability within its

own borders. Internal tension and political polarization are the most pressing issues for the

United States. Religion, race, gender, and the environment are a few of the most conflicted topics

in the United States populous. Whether they are provoked internally by police violence or

externally by Russian intervention, these factors threaten democracy and the unity that sets

America apart from other superpowers. As a democracy, America has historically been able to

oversee peaceful protest when a group of the population disagrees with government policy. Even

when riots have erupted over more sensitive topics, the reaction has been isolated. For example,

following the arrest / assault / murder of Freddie Gray in Baltimore, riots only lasted 15 days

before being shut down by the opening of a judicial review1. Although tension still exists in
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Baltimore to this day, further spreading or a transition to insurgency was prevented by the

successful implementation of democracy. Unfortunately, as government polarity and corruption

increase, this peaceful democratic authority will disappear. Politicians are so intent on achieving

personal goals and maintaining party support that polarization has risen to unprecedented levels2.

Low voter turnout in the latest election and the appointment of Donald Trump without a popular

majority prove that there is already a lack of faith in the representation of democracy. As civil

disagreement continues to rise over sensitive topics, involved protestors will have less faith in

the ability of the government to make change through a democratic process. Violence will

increase, and the government will be forced to respond with authoritarian means including the

National Guard and advanced crowd control technology. Rival superpowers will contribute by

expanding polarization within the United States government and instigating restlessness among

minorities. Ultimately, as the democratic process begins to fail the people, a risk of insurgency

will grow.

As national tensions escalate, the country must focus on maintaining composed power.

The most effective way to achieve this is by targeting the policies which enrage the masses.

There is hardly any crossover within the senate, and this has not always been the case3. A leader

must emerge from the political scene in Washington who sets aside his own political agenda to

do what is best for all Americans. This will start by increasing election monitoring to prevent

continuous outside influence. As long as Russia or a similar nation has control in the American

election, it will promote the dismantling of democracy. Fake news* must be eliminated through

cyber monitoring, each election center must be placed through rigorous testing, a significant

portion of the military budget must be transferred to cyber security, and the exclusive use of

* This refers to real fake news, not Trump’s populist idea of fake news.
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paper ballots must be considered. There are several loopholes that allow organizations, political

parties, and individuals to fund campaigns4. As long as these exist, politicians will feel pressured

to make decisions based off of favors rather than moral / ethnical obligations. Reform will

restore faith in both wings of the population and prevent America from becoming an

authoritarian regime when responding to domestic turmoil. When sensitive topics like religion

and race are discussed, American’s will feel assured that there is a fair representation of ideas

being brought to the table. The enraged will again see more benefit in protesting than in forming

violent factions.

Although capitalism has proven to be the single most effective system over the past

century, unregulated capitalism threatens the wellbeing of the union. The widening gap between

the rich and poor makes the American dream less feasible, limits the interest of foreign

immigrants, and weakens markets. It also contributes to an enraged mass. The top .1% of the

American population controls more wealth than the bottom 90% of the population5. However,

unemployment is low at an impressive 4.8%6. Most lower class Americans have jobs, but they

are not capable of achieving financial success. The poor are discontent and feel hopeless*. As

this gap increases, the situation will only escalate. Large investments from the top tier will keep

the economy prosperous, so there will be a mask of success. In truth, less individuals will be able

to spend money in the United States market. The standard of living for the typical American will

decrease. Immigrants and refugees will find countries with more opportunities and more

welcoming policies more attractive. An example is Germany. The identity earned by America as

a land of prosperity will diminish, and the nation will disappear into the folds.

*This generalization is based off of personal experience, discussions with hundreds of similarly
minded people, and a liberal arts knowledge of psychology.
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The United States must restore equality by reforming its tax code, regulating big

business, and making it possible to succeed from the bottom again. By no means am I promoting

communism or socialism. It is important for there to be a distribution of wealth decided by

economic success. However, each American must have the ability to succeed through work and

smart economic decisions. Although tax equity is the ideal outcome of any domestic economic

reforms, it will likely not be taken well by the conservative portion of the government. A more

plausible solution is tax equality. The upper percentiles of the population receive tax cuts despite

having the most money. Using offshore accounts, wealthy businessmen are able to hide funds

that they would otherwise need to pay taxes for7. It is essential to crack down on these sorts of

illegal actions in order for the government to receive full income and ensure domestic investment

by upper tiers. Tax evasion and fraud must be considered more severe crimes in court. Big

businesses should also be held more accountable for monitoring accounts. The recent Wells

Fargo scandal is unacceptable8. If there is no system in place to discover similar cases in the

future, they will continue to happen until a broad economic crash occurs as it did in 2008.

Finally, it is important that the minimum wage be adjusted to accommodate inflation. It is very

difficult to provide for a family with a minimum wage salary. The minimum wage in 1968 was

equivalent to 10.71 2013 United States dollars9. The national minimum wage in 2016 was 7.25

United States dollars. Yet, the price of food and other necessary commodities has continued to

rise10. The government must develop an equation that sets a fluctuating value for the minimum

wage in relation to the value of the dollar. Companies concerned about providing a higher

minimum wage can cut the salaries of executives. This reform will increase support for the

government among the poor, boost markets by allowing spending from a more diverse faction of

the population, and eliminate internal dissent.

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Foreign

Once internal affairs have solidified, the United States will be in a position to renew

exerting external power. The growing debt with China and use of foreign oil demonstrate how

dependent the United States economy is on other nations. As the nation loses international

influence, this dependence will hurt the nation’s markets and hinder its ability to negotiate. The

United States debt of 19.9 trillion dollars is over double the debt of the closest nation by debt, the

United Kingdom11. Also, the United States is second only to China for oil imports per year12. As

China and Russia begin to surpass the United States, the United States will not be able to respond

due to its reliance on these nations.

To respond to this weakness, the United States must diversify its energy market, promote

domestic production, and restrict debt. Despite its negative environmental impacts, fracking has

positively enhanced the United States position13. Through continued fracking, safer methods of

extracting oil, and a transition to renewable energy, the United States will have more control

over its imports. Oil will be imported by choice rather than by necessity. One way to prevent

dependency on foreign, and particularly Chinese, markets is to encourage domestic production.

This can be achieved by reaching out to business executives, raising tariffs on imports by United

States companies from their own foreign factories, and selling government-owned land to major

United States organizations for cheap prices. With less United States companies on foreign soil,

other countries will feel more obliged to adhere to United States demands. Sanctions and other

means of indirect influencing will have a greater impact, for the United States will no longer

worry about hurting its own economy through these tactics. Finally, the United States needs to

sort out its budget and limit its debt. Most spending is directed to medicair/medicaid, social

security, defense/war, income security, interest, and federal pensions14. Each of these sectors is
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essential and cannot be eliminated completely. In order to maintain its government services, the

United States must increase its efficiency and reduce the range of its programs. The age of social

security benefits must be increased to match a longer life expectancy. Medicair and Medicaid

must require stronger application requirements including employment and plans to achieve

success without government support. This will be discussed further below, but the military must

become more efficient through the use of its technology. It will be difficult to completely stop

debt from rising. However, slowing its rate of growth will set an example for the future and

allow the United States to remain autonomous from the rising nations.

As domestic support for the war against terrorism decreases and the defense budget is cut

to limit debt, the United States will lose its ability to act as international police. Since World War

2, this has been a key factor in distinguishing the United States as the leader of the West. It has

also been essential for protecting United States resource and security interests. Prior to the World

Wars, the United Kingdom was the world’s military superpower. Even after the collapse of the

British Empire, the nation still had a massive navy which patrolled international waters.

However, following its success in the world wars, the United States took over this position. This

began with containment during the cold war, continued with stabilization in the Middle East, and

presently consists of a global anti-terrorism/piracy leadership position. The United States has

soldiers based in all nationalized continents and vessels patrolling all oceans. The Korean

Peninsula is an example of a region where peace exists only because of a United States presence.

However, this success comes at a price. The United States military budget of 597 billion dollars

per year is larger than the budget of the next 12 countries combined15. This takes away from

spending on domestic programs and contributes significantly to the overwhelming national debt.

Furthermore, as a war of attrition, the war on terror will lose support from the United States
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population the longer it persists. It will be very difficult for the United States to maintain its

current military deployments as the country is surpassed in the world order.

At this point, the nation must prioritize its security interests, focus on transitioning its

influence in developing countries to soft power and paramilitary operations, and develop

efficient advanced weaponry. Efficient laser technology, nanotechnology, and autonomous

technology will allow the United States to have the same impact at a lesser cost. However, this

transition will take time and require initial prioritization. It will not be possible to protect all

interests, so the first priority for United States troops is regions that directly threaten United

States security. This starts with the homeland. As relations with Mexico dismantle, troops may

be needed along the border to prevent cartels from spreading into the United States. Significant

funds must be allocated to the intelligence community to detect and prevent direct attacks on

United States soil. The National Guard, Coast Guard, and related domestic branches must be

strengthened. Missile defense, nuclear, and space defense capabilities must remain a top priority

in order to deter large-scale attacks and defend against rogue ones. The next priority will be to

preserve United States resource reserves. Through a transition to domestic energy, this will

become a lesser problem. However, as supplies vanish, other nations will become increasingly

aggressive for these materials. Even allies may turn on the United States stockpiles as the

situation becomes more critical. By maintaining a firm foothold, the United States will have a

step up on assailants. The final priority for the United States should be preventing a conflict that

forces the United States into war. When China and Russia sign a military agreement within the

next 25 years, even the United States will be overwhelmed by any sort of direct combat. The

United States will not have the freedom to prevent every war through direct action. There will

need to be a carefully calculated combination of letting small conflicts play out and preventing
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other conflicts. South Korea, Syria, and Ukraine are a few countries that should be let go to

prevent a much larger war and allow the United States to protect its own direct interests. That

being said, the United States should not simply give up its influence. Nations abandoned by the

United States military should be trained to raise armies of their own. With restored internal

strength, the United States will also be capable of engaging nations diplomatically without a

military “big stick.” As Eastern Powers build their militaries, the United States will be able to

negotiate a new Western Alliance that utilizes more balanced joint military action.

Global

A factor that will deeply impact the world in the next half-century is global warming. By

2100, temperature will increase between .5ºF and 8.6ºF. For every 2ºF of temperature increase,

there will be a 25% decrease in Arctic sea ice. As a result, by the end of the century, the sea level

is expected to rise between 1 and 4 feet. Also, global precipitation will increase, winds will

increase, and violent storms will occur more often. After all ice melts, nearly half of the United

States will be submerged. By being more acidic, oceans will adversely affect coral, plankton,

mollusks, and shellfish16. This will destroy the marine ecosystem and eliminate Earth’s largest

food supply. The Earth will be a very different place, and the world order will be determined by

how nations prepare for and respond to changes.

The United States must capitalize on new sea routes in the Arctic, develop cities high

above sea level, and build infrastructure to respond to increasing natural disasters with. As ice

melts in the Arctic, new direct sea routes will open17. These routes will be far more efficient than

the current transatlantic and pacific routes, and they will also evade continents and strategic

canals. Russia, Canada, America, Greenland, and Norway each have rights to the arctic waters
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from the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea18. It is essential that the United States

maximizes its role in this region to preserve resources, prevent fishing, and assert dominance in a

new frontier. Russia and Canada will have the capability to tax port calls more often than the

United States will, but Alaska sits at an important crossroad that ships from Asia will pass before

entering the Arctic Ocean. The United States will be able to tax port calls and limit movement in

a war scenario. Furthermore, the United States should focus on developing inland cities. The

coasts will not be entirely submerged for at least a century, but America must start preparing

now. Farming is centered in the Midwest, so the United States will have an advantage over other

food-producing nations as sea levels rise. The government must ensure that there is infrastructure

in place for flooded cities to move inwards to. Also, in connection with military prioritization,

national guard and coast guard servicemen must be trained and equipped properly to deal with

increasing natural disasters caused by global warming. They must have the ability to respond to

massive destruction events and nuclear fallout events from coastal reactors being flooded.

Global warming, population growth, and continuous exploitation will cause resource

stocks to deplete. At current production rates, there is enough oil in the world to last 53.3 years19.

This expiration date will increase as drilling technology advances and fracking becomes more

efficient, but prices will rise. Reserves will be isolated only to certain regions of the globe.

Drinking water will also disappear internationally. The United States has some of the deepest

remaining aquifers, but this will put the nation at risk of foreign pressure and invasion. Also,

these aquifers are isolated to the South and Rockies, so it will be difficult for eastern and western

cities to have access to drinking water20. Farming will become more difficult, and fish will cease

to exist. There will be tension over fertile land and related consumable resources, and GMO
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companies such as Monsanto and Bayer will gain unprecedented power through monopolies on a

necessity.

America must transition to renewable resources, develop mass-scale water purification,

regulate / promote farming, and prioritize the protection of its own resources. In order to move

past a reliance on oil, the United States must expand its energy industry to include

renewable/efficient resources. There is concern about the initial cost of these resources, so

research must be dedicated to finding affordable ways to produce large quantities of energy.

Wind, solar, nuclear, and hydro are examples of possible targets. Molten salt reactors will allow

the United States to take advantage of its advanced nuclear program to benefit society. A

concerted effort to urbanize and limit the use of private transportation will also assist. As

precipitation increases, the United States should focus on collecting rainwater in large quantities

and purifying contaminated water. Each building in a city should have the ability to collect

rainwater. Saudi Arabia is the leader in desalination, so covert action may be necessary to

advance the United States’ knowledge of this topic. The United States currently has the largest

quantity of fertile land in the world. However, the percentage of the population that goes into

farming lowers each year21. Through financial incentives and benefits similar to those veterans

receive, the United States must increase its farming output. It will be important to ensure

autonomy in farming to prevent famine from an overreliance on GMO’s. And, as the United

States succeeds in developing new resources, the nation must do everything in its power to

protect its assets from less prosperous neighbors. Sharing with other countries will act as a strong

negotiating tool in redeveloping soft power, but greed will always persist. Particularly when the

resource situation reaches a point of desperation, the United States will be under direct and
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indirect attack for its resources. The nation must use intelligence to prevent its well-being from

being undermined again.

Conclusion

There will come a time when, in the words of the eager Donald Trump, the government

will have to make America great again. The United States is faced by a variety of internal,

external, and global pressures. In order to maintain its power and autonomy, the nation must

adapt to an advancing world. Democracy and capitalism must be reformed to allow for equal

opportunity and fair representation. This will prevent insurgency and develop markets for

success. The government must diversify its energy production, domesticate business, and limit

its sizable debt. This will allow the nation to make decisions on its own without the pressure of

foreign business constraint. The military must develop more efficient technologies and prioritize

its commitments across the globe. By forming more cooperative alliances and training

paramilitary forces, the United States will be able to limit its defense budget and focus on

protecting its homeland as international aggression expands. Finally, the United States

government and population must come together to adjust to global warming and related resource

exhaustion. These factors will impact global dynamics, but the United States can capitalize on

these changes as other nations struggle. If completed with appropriate tactics, this strategy will

allow the United States to retain its position as a leader in the world order and ensure the security

of its citizens.
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