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CONTENTS
THIS MONTH’S GUIDE TO INNOVATION AND DISCOVERY OCTOBER ’10
VOLUME 277 #4
FEATURES
THE FUTURE OF THE HOME
44 LIFE ON THE EDGE
Conceptual shelters that will
protect us all from rising waters,
extreme heat, rampant pollution and
overpopulation. By Suzanne LaBarre
INSTANT EXPERT
Our annual guide to the science that you need to know now.
58 REBUILT 60 EASY 62 UNNATURAL 64 DIRTY
MINDS FRESHWATER GAS COSMOS
New drugs could Desalination Mining natural This map of
help scientists techniques are gas from shale cosmic dust
understand more efficient is cheap but particles
memory than ever. Could could spoil could help
formation and this process be nearby waters. astronomers
stop age-related the answer to Here’s how to understand
memory loss. our water woes? wrest fuel from how stars and
By Elizabeth By Katharine the rocks. planets form.
Svoboda Gammon By Corey Binns By Katie Peek
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: COURTESY HUSQVARNA; GETTY IMAGES; COURTESY JOHN MAHONEY; COURTESY NASA/ESA/STSCI;
Robot maids, smellovision, lunar
bases: Scientists predict the future. 100 THE FUTURE THEN
FLOOD OF
Features Editor Nicole Dyer
Editorial Production Manager Felicia Pardo
Copy and Research Director Rina Bander
Senior Editor Martha Harbison
Senior Associate Editors Lauren Aaronson, Doug Cantor,
Bjorn Carey, Seth Fletcher
CREATIVITY
Associate Editor Corinne Iozzio
Assistant Editor Susannah F. Locke
Editorial Assistant Amy Geppert
Editor at Large Dawn Stover
Contributing Innovation Editor Mike Haney
Contributing Technology Editor Steve Morgenstern
Contributing Editors Eric Adams, Theodore Gray, Eric Hagerman,
Joseph Hooper, Preston Lerner, Gregory Mone, Rena Marie Pacella,
Catherine Price, Dave Prochnow, Jessica Snyder Sachs, Rebecca
Skloot, Mike Spinelli, Elizabeth Svoboda, Kalee Thompson,
DURING A RECENT FAMILY DRIVE out of town, my 13-year-old son, Phillip Torrone, James Vlahos, Speed Weed
Contributing Troubadour Jonathan Coulton
Rex, launched into a diatribe from the backseat, blasting the environ- Editorial Interns Lana Birbrair, Katie Peek, Victor Zapana
mental myopia of every lone driver spewing unnecessary CO2 behind ART AND PHOTOGRAPHY
Art Director Matthew Cokeley
the wheel of a hulking SUV. (He actually wanted me to bump them off Photo Editor Kristine LaManna
Staff Photographer John B. Carnett
the road, thus ensuring that he won’t join their ranks until long after he Senior Designer Stephanie O’Hara
Contributing Artists Kevin Hand, Nick Kaloterakis,
turns 16.) “Don’t they realize that if this keeps up, Manhattan is going to be Graham Murdoch, Bob Sauls, Paul Wootton
Photo Intern Jack Forbes
under water before long?” he demanded.
POPSCI.COM
My wife, Liza, attempted to Digital Content Director John Mahoney
Associate Web Editor Paul Adams
The 265-horsepower
merry-go-round.
Corner like a thrill ride on rails in the new 2011 Impreza WRX. Symmetrical All-Wheel Drive
in a bold new wide-body package puts an asphalt-eating grin on your face every time it digs
®
its claws into a turn. That, and a turbocharged SUBARU BOXER engine, without spending
stupid money? Now that’s a joyride. Love. It’s what makes a Subaru, a Subaru.
®
WRX. Well-equipped at $25,495†
†MSRP excludes destination and delivery charges, tax, title and registration fees. Dealer sets actual price. 2011 Subaru WRX Premium pictured has an MSRP of $27,995.
THE INBOX
OUR FUTURE ROBOT SERVANTS
After our August issue explored the
latest in robot technology, readers
wondered why U.S. engineers even
bother with humanoid robots, like those
mentioned in Jacob Ward’s “The Loneliest
Humanoid in America.” Especially when
Corey Binns’s profile of 10 new machines
that will make our lives easier, “Rise
of the Helpful Machines,” showed that
’bots don’t need to resemble their human
counterparts to be useful assistants.
@
edited for length
SUBSCRIPTIONS EDITIONS and clarity. We regret
COURTESY ST. MARTIN’S PRESS
likes of the country’s largest working popsci.com/customer For inquiries regarding that we cannot answer
landfill in California and the driver’s service/subscribe international licensing unpublished letters.
visit progressive.com/autoxprize
09P00134.B2 (08/10)
MEGAPIXELS the must-see photos of the month
A POWERFUL
LESSON
Why you should keep your face
away from big fireworks
This unlucky blast-test dummy was the star of the Consumer
Product Safety Commission’s annual July press event on the
National Mall in Washington. The commission, which regulates
fireworks’ explosive power, here vividly shows the potential
of pyrotechnics for bodily harm. The mannequin’s Styrofoam
head, filled with cornmeal to simulate brains, was close to a
professional-grade explosive, with a “quick match” fuse that
burns almost instantaneously. (Consumer-grade pyrotechnics
have a six-second fuse.) The commission estimates that fire-
works were responsible for 9,000 injuries in the U.S. last year.
Most of the injuries from firecrackers and sparklers are burns
and cuts, but the decapitation demonstration is a reminder that
the night can end in other ways. BY KATIE PEEK
PHOTOGRAPH BY Manuel Balce Ceneta
WHAT’S NEW
TECH THAT PUTS THE FUTURE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND
20 22 24
New motion sensors How to charge A boot, jacket and
for videogames an electric car GPS for better hikes
THE HAMMER,
EVOLVEDA cordless nailer powerful enough for the
pros and handy enough for the rest of us
First came rocks. Then hammers. EASY DRIVER
After that came pneumatic nail This nailer
guns, and then the pneumatic has a magnet
to keep a nail
palm nailer, a hand-sized tool that
in place as it
can pound nails accurately in even pounds, while
tight spaces, such as between wall an LED lights
studs or ceiling joists. But it still your work.
requires an unwieldy hose and air
compressor, and battery-powered
alternatives have lacked the
force that contractors need. The
Milwaukee M12 Palm Nailer is the
first battery-powered version
that’s almost as fast and
powerful as a pneumatic. even sinks five-inch monsters
It gets its oomph called pole-barn spikes. That
from a compact but wide-ranging speed makes it
mighty 12-volt battery and a useful both for pros, who can
motorized piston-like mechanism maneuver it more easily than
that’s larger and more efficient pneumatics, and DIYers, who
than those found in other want a less exhausting way to
automatic hammers. As you hold repair the deck.—Max Fischer
it over a nail, a 3.2-ounce steel
ram (twice as weighty as others)
moves up and down 2,700 times a MILWAUKEE M12 PALM
minute, alternately compressing NAILER
SIZE: 7.5 x 2.5 x 6.5 inches
a spring and then bouncing back
WEIGHT: 3.3 pounds
forcefully to hit a steel post in the NAILS PER CHARGE: up to 100
tip that strikes the nail. It drives 3 1/2-inch (16d) nails
BRIAN KLUTCH
Chain Reaction
Husqvarna’s new chainsaw keeps itself well-tuned to help minimize
maintenance. It has a sensor that checks conditions, such as outside temperature
and internal airflow, every eight rotations and then adjusts the engine’s fuel-air
mix to make sure the saw doesn’t wear itself out. Husqvarna 576 XP AutoTune
$910; husqvarna.com
Simply Quiet
These active noise-canceling earbuds
Air Check are the first that don’t require an
Monitor carbon monoxide even when in
internal battery to generate the tones
your hotel. This three-ounce detector
that block outside noise. Instead,
shrinks the usual circuit board to
they connect to your iPhone or iPod’s
remain compact, and it has
charging port and take power from the
a ruggedized plastic case to
device’s battery. Blackbox i10
survive rough-and-tumble
$130; blackboxonline.com
baggage handling. First
Head Shot Alert Travel CO Alarm
The Looxcie Bluetooth headset $35; firstalert.com
also records live video from
your perspective and wirelessly In Good Hands
streams it to your cellphone to Two rollers in the back of this chair mimic
save or send instantly to the Web.
Action Capture the fingertip pressure of shiatsu massage.
This point-and-shoot decides for
It has a dual-core processor to Designers collected data from sensors on
itself how many snaps it will take
color-correct its standard-def masseurs’ hands to re-create their techniques.
to get the picture you want. In Burst
video on the fly. Looxcie Panasonic EP-MS40 Massage Sofa Chair
mode, the camera’s processor tracks
$200; looxcie.com $2,500; panasonic.com
how quickly the subject is moving and
chooses to shoot 2, 5 or 10 frames
per second. Panasonic Lumix DMC-
FX700 $400; panasonic.com
goods
helps save snowboarders from
brain damage. On impact, a pin at
the top breaks to let an inner shell
THE
rotate with your head, so it won't get
slammed around inside the helmet
and bruise your brain. POC Receptor
Backcountry $250; pocsports.com
A dozen great ideas in gear
By Corinne Iozzio
Bed Bundle
At nine ounces, Klymit’s six-foot camping
pad weighs 70 percent less than its
competitors. The mat, which rolls up to
the size of a soda can and inflates in
about three breaths, focuses support in
key areas, such as the lower back and
hips, and is hollow in others. Klymit
Inertia-X-Frame $100; klymit.com
Better Blades
Microplane’s herb chopper does the
job of a chef’s knife with a single
wrist twist. The mill has two stacked
circular blades with hundreds of teeth
that slide back and forth to act like
tiny scissors, cleanly mincing herbs
without tearing the leaves. Microplane
Herb Mill $20; microplane.com
CHEAT
SHEET
Three major
videogame
systems all have
the same goal:
to quickly and
accurately follow
your movement in
three-dimensional
space. But they
achieve it in very
GET IT: Sony PlayStation Move: $100;
different ways.
PS3 console: From $300; sony.com
STRENGTHS The best games rely on fast, broad, kid-friendly Tracking your whole body, not a handheld Combining many measurements provides a
moves. There are many choices, since most Wii controller, offers physical freedom and allows high degree of accuracy. An optional joystick
games (unlike Xbox or PlayStation) use motion. more motions, such as kicks and exercises. lets you navigate complex games.
BRIAN KLUTCH
WEAKNESSES Pointing precision can be problematic. No Lack of buttons will frustrate shooter fans. Has less free-form magic than Kinect. Not
camera means no augmented-reality games. Debut games are mainly big-gesture sports. including a joystick may limit its use in games.
CHARGE!
Mass-market electric cars are mere months away—and
that has charging-dock companies scrambling
Next year the number of electric cars and plug-in
hybrids in America will increase by an order of GE Wattstation
magnitude, and all of those cars will be able to draw Thanks to standards set earlier this year
electricity from any 120-volt wall outlet. Just not very by the Society of Automotive Engineers
quickly. Charging from the wall can take longer than (SAE), charging docks like the GE WattSta-
16 hours. A faster fill-up involves installing a dedi- tion—which arrives next year in both
cated 240-volt “Level II” home charging dock, and to home and public versions—can connect
combat range anxiety—the fear of being stranded to any new EV or plug-in hybrid. Designed
with no electrons and nowhere to plug in—automak- by Yves Béhar, known for his work on
ers want to see these same charging docks installed the One Laptop Per Child computer, the
for public use across the country. So far, the Depart- WattStation delivers a 24-kilowatt-hour
ment of Energy and state and local governments charge, good for approximately 100 miles’
have announced worth of driving range, in four to eight
plans to install hours, for about $3. (You’d spend $12 to
more than 11,000 cover the same distance in a 25-mpg
public chargers in car using $3-a-gallon gas.) On public
19 states. Here’s versions, you can pay with a credit card.
what’s coming. A commercial unit will cost $3,000 to
—Lawrence Ulrich $7,000, with wall-mounted home chargers
closer to $1,500, a blow softened by the
ILLUSTRATION: PAUL WOOTTON; PHOTOGRAPHS, FROM LEFT: COURTESY AEROVIRONMENT; COURTESY GENERAL ELECTRIC
federal tax credit covering half the cost.
ChargePoint Level
III Fast Charger
Level III “fast chargers,” industrial-strength
electron pumps that can fill a battery in 30
minutes or less, will be essential for taking
electric cars mainstream. AeroVironment has
said that covering a metro area will require an
array of public fast-charging stations 10 to 30
percent the size of the local gas-station mar-
ket—250 to 750 chargers in Los Angeles, for
Nissan Home example. The SAE hasn’t agreed on standards
Charging Dock for Level III chargers, and fast chargers are
still several months away. But Coulomb Tech-
Nissan knows how frustrating it will be to fill the Leaf’s hefty 24 kilowatt- nology’s prototype 480-volt DC ChargePoint
hour battery from a 120-volt outlet, so it’s encouraging Leaf buyers to station, which the company developed with
install Level II home charging docks built by AeroVironment, the company Aker Wade Power Technologies, is a vision of
known for its work on GM’s EV1. AeroVironment is training electricians to what’s to come. These chargers handle volt-
inspect drivers’ homes, obtain local permits, and install the 240-volt AC ages so high that they might require a trained
docks, whose 3.3-kilowatt rate can fill the Leaf’s 24-kilowatt-hour bat- attendant to ensure safe fill-ups. Such speedy
tery in four to eight hours. Together, the dock and installation cost roughly charging could finally free EVs from mere
$2,200; half of that is offset by a federal tax credit. commuter-car duty.
3. POLES
Trekking poles add stability
in tricky spots. These 47-
inch ones fold up small
and light for packing and
extend quickly when
needed. Each 9.5-ounce
stick is made of three
15.6-inch carbon-fiber
tubes, linked by a Kevlar
cord. Pull the handle to
tighten the cord and draw
the tubes together in a snap.
Black Diamond Ultra Distance
$150; blackdiamondequipment.com
4. GPS
The best GPS unit for casual hikers is a
phone. This popular app for the iPhone 3G
or 4 saves open-source topographic maps
and uses the GPS chip and motion sensors
to track location, speed and altitude. An
update shows places en route that have
been geo-tagged on Wikipedia; tap to read
articles. Motion-X GPS $3; motionx.com
5. BOOTS
This boot reduces blisters with curves that
match a foot’s shape, like indentations for
toes in its upper. TrekSta laser-mapped
100,000 feet to create its ultra-detailed
BRIAN KLUTCH
TEAM SPIRIT
Sports fans
can join a vir-
tual audience MORE INTERACTION
of avatars on You’ll soon be able to watch
Xbox LIVE. live sports on your Xbox 360—
and compete in trivia contests
against other fans. By November,
Microsoft’s Xbox LIVE service will
begin streaming the Web channel
ESPN3. Viewers get access to
interactive features, such as
real-time polls and quizzes at
the bottom of the TV screen, that
are more commonly found in
videogames and social-networking
sites. Next up: additional channels
and a wider range of social
experiences, such as voice chat
among viewers. ESPN3 on Xbox
LIVE Included in $50/year LIVE Gold
membership; xbox.com
HELLO, CONVERGENCE
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: COURTESY VIZIO; SCREEN: COURTESY MICROSOFT; JAMIE McDONALD/GETTY IMAGES; COURTESY GOOGLE
New sets and services finally bring television and Web videos together
TECH TREND EASIER SEARCHING BETTER RECOMMENDATIONS
The next generation of Internet- The Google TV system lets you With the growing variety of Web
connected TVs and set-top boxes swap grid-like program guides for and broadcast programs, the next
make the Web something you surf Google’s familiar search bar. Type in advance is TVs that help you pinpoint
with a remote, not a mouse. a title, and it combs cable schedules, the best parts. Prototype software
shows saved on a DVR and online at the Intel China Research Center
WHY NOW videos, so you can readily watch analyzes video to detect people and
Because an increasing number of content from many places. The events. It spots soccer players by
TVs now stream video from the system also lets you surf the Web their numbers, for example, and
Web, manufacturers are building and run apps, since the hardware can assemble a highlight reel of
interfaces to help you navigate this will have an Intel Atom chip and an goals or let you search for a favorite
sea of content. The Internet link also Android operating system. Google TV star. Similar tech could come to TVs
allows computer-like interactions, Prices not set; google.com/tv within five years. techresearch.intel.com
such as searches, alongside videos.
GET THE
HOW YOU’LL BENEFIT GOOGLE
Google TV
Think of a show, and you’ll pretty
arrives this fall
much be able to get it. Watch it on on some Sony
cable, Hulu or YouTube, and even TV sets and in
do a little social networking at the an add-on box
same time.—clay dillow by Logitech.
ROWer
The Rowcycle merges the strength of
both your arms and legs to increase speed
and provide a total-body workout. As you
HEADLINES
DISCOVERIES, ADVANCES AND DEBATES IN SCIENCE
30 32 36
Inside the first A pig that makes Japan predicts the
regenerated lung cleaner poop next 30 years
THEORETICAL PHYSICS
DECAYING
GRAVITY New theories test our understanding
of nature’s most elemental force
JULY 29 The X Prize Foundation announces the Oil Cleanup X Challenge: $1.4 million for the fastest and most efficient ways to skim oil from water.
ORDER LUNGS
Scientists fill a rat lung with a deter-
gent that removes the organ’s cells,
leaving behind only its inanimate
collagen-based scaffiolding. This is
then placed in a standard nutrient-rich
liquid that promotes cell growth.
Scientists grow the first working replacement lung
PHASE 2: BUILD
THE AIRWAYS
In the U.S., people needing a new After just eight days of growth, the Scientists pump epithelial cells extracted
BREATHE EASY lung wait more than a year on aver- lungs were transplanted into yet from baby rat lungs into the trachea
Making age for an organ. That’s often too other rats, where they oxygenated scaffiolding, which leads into other
lungs from long—237 people on the transplant blood 95 percent as well as a nor- empty airways. The cells stick to the
a patient’s list died in 2009. Recent advances mal, healthy organ. scaffiolding and multiply to form the
own cells in cell regeneration, however, Custom-made human lungs are bronchi, bronchioles and alveoli, the
could could someday allow a patient to still years off. To prevent a patient’s tiny air sacs that exchange oxygen
improve “donate” a healthy lung to himself immune system from attack- and carbon dioxide with the blood.
the current in just a month. ing a new organ, doctors need to
15 percent This summer, scientists dem- perform the reseeding step with PHASE 3: CONSTRUCT
10-year onstrated the first functional cells from that patient’s own body; THE VESSELS
suvival rate replacement lung in a rat. The Niklason’s group can’t yet do that Making blood vessels is similar. This
for trans- technique follows what’s becoming even with rats. Figuring out how time, endothelial cells harvested
plantees. a standard practice in regenerative to produce adult stem cells that from rat lungs are injected into the
medicine, but the lung is the most will develop into the correct types scaffiolding of the lung’s pulmonary
complex organ copied so far. Bio- of lung cells and not form tumors artery. The cells grow to form the
medical engineer Laura Niklason’s has proved difficult, although other lung’s veins, arteries and capillaries.
group at Yale University removed researchers have made progress
a rat’s lungs and stripped away the with other cell types. Niklason
cells, leaving an inanimate scaffold thinks it will take about 20 years
of collagen and other connective tis- before she can rejuvenate a human
sue. They seeded the scaffold with lung, but she intends to see it
malleable lung cells harvested from through. As she puts it, “I didn’t get
other rats, which multiplied to form into this to make lungs for rats.”
new airways and blood vessels. —VicTor Zapana
”
they imply a solution that isn’t very Infeld action, which describes
physical,” says Nikodem Poplawski,
a gravitational theorist at Indiana
electromagnetism. With Born-Infeld
conditions in place, Ferreira and EINSTEIN’S
University. But this summer, two Bañados were able to replicate
THEORY OF GRAVITY
IS SIMPLER. BUT
physicists may have figured out how Einsteinian gravity in normal
to bring order to Einstein’s universe. situations, and they were also
SOMETIMES THE
Astrophysicists Maximo consistent with the conditions
Bañados and Pedro Ferreira of scientists have observed about
the University of Oxford replaced the origins of the universe.
SIMPLEST IDEA ISN’T
GRAHAM MURDOCH
”
the Einstein-Hilbert action—the According to Ferreira and Baña-
equation from which all of general
relativity’s other equations are
dos, gravity is not strong enough to
crumple the universe’s mass into an
THE BEST ONE.
derived—with a modified Born- infinitely dense point, but with the
JULY 29 The Population Reference Bureau, an independent research group, estimates that the world’s population will exceed seven billion next year, and eight billion by 2024.
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
Epithelial cells
PHASE 3
Trachea
Bronchioles
Pulmonary
artery Alveoli
Blood
Endothelial cells vessels
Bronchi
limit they placed on gravity, it could gravitational waves left over from terms, and gravity coupled to a
have compressed the universe into the early universe could validate ‘chameleon field’ that makes the
an extremely small ball. Rather than the work, Ferreira says. “Einstein’s strength of gravity different near
emerging from a point, that ball may theory is simpler,” he admits. “But matter than in a vacuum. The recent
have been the densest part of an sometimes the simplest idea isn’t appearance of so many theories
ongoing process, in which a previ- the best one.” may be a sign of a field on the verge
ous universe had collapsed in on “It’s a good step toward improv- of a breakthrough. Indeed, Erik
itself, “bounced” against the limits ing our understanding of gravity,” Verlinde of the University of Amster-
of density, and then expanded again Poplawski says. But as it stands, the dam argues that gravity is not a
to become our current universe. Or, theory is less developed than other force at all but rather an “emerg-
after its initial growth, the universe alternatives to Einstein’s gravity. ing condition.” As he told the New
may have paused before expanding There’s gravity in higher dimen- York Times in July, “For me, gravity
as it does today. Future analysis of sions, gravity with extra curvature doesn’t exist.”—JoN LAcKmAN
AUGUST 5 A homemade computer in Japan calculates the most digits of pi ever: five trillion decimal places, beating the previous record by more than two trillion.
3
2
GREENER
BACON
A bioengineered pig that
excretes fewer pollutants
INSIDE THE
This little piggy went to market. FRESHER WATER when Cecil Forsberg, a biologist at
This little piggy stayed home. Elevated phos- the University of Guelph in Ontario,
ENVIROPIG
And this little piggy is genetically phorus levels genetically modified pigs so that
modified to poop less phosphorus, in water, often their salivary glands would secrete
making it the most environmen- traceable to pig- phytase. This allows the pigs, now in
tally friendly pig in the world. waste runoff, their eighth generation, to get their 1. MAKE THE ENZYME
Like all animals, pigs’s cells are a major con- phosphate from grains alone, and to As the pig chews, the Escherichia coli
need phosphorus to make DNA, tributor to algal excrete about 40 percent less of it. genes implanted in its salivary glands
build cell membranes, and trans- blooms that Switching to Enviropig herds will begin promoting phytase production.
port energy. But pigs can’t digest steal oxygen be expensive for farmers, Forsberg
phytate, a phosphorus-heavy mol- from fish and says, but in the long run subtracting 2. BREAK UP THE
ecule in grains, so farmers fortify render drinking supplements will save $1.75 per pig POLLUTANT
pig feed with pure phosphate or water toxic. annually—a windfall for a 100,000- Phytase begins breaking phytate into
phytase, an enzyme that breaks pig farm. He is currently petitioning digestible phosphate in the mouth, but
usable phosphate off phytate. Still, the U.S. Department of Agriculture it really ramps up its activity when it
pigs excrete nearly all the phos- and Health Canada for permission hits the stomach’s strong acid.
phorus they eat, and this washes to serve Enviropig meat. “Unfortu-
into the ocean, where it feeds bac- nately, it is illegal for us to do taste 3. POOP AND PEE AWAY!
teria and algae that create oxygen tests at this time, despite the temp- Because they don’t need phosphate
“dead zones,” a major killer of tation,” he says. “But I expect they’ll supplements, Enviropigs excrete 30 to
MITCH ROMANOWSKI
OCTOBER 4 The Census of Marine Life releases the results of a decade-long project to identify every species in the ocean and determine their location and abundance.
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HEADLINES FORECAST
TOMORROW IN JAPAN
Space tourism,
artificial organs, FORESIGHT
and butler SURVEY
2020 2033
’bots—we look at Thin, flexible electronic displays
Japan’s forecasts replace newspapers.
Stem-cell techniques can 2033
produce artificial organs. Computers evaluate
of its future POPsCI Comparison policy recommendations
2022
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: SCIENCE SOURCE/PHOTO RESEARCHERS; JOHN B. CARNETT; NASA; COURTESY MARK GREENBERG/VIRGIN GALACTIC; COURTESY APTERA MOTORS; iSTOCK
At the Wake Forest Institute for and institutional plans.
In 21 years, vacationers will
Synthetic blood Regenerative Medicine, scientists
sip mojitos while watching the
makes donation have made a transplantable artifi-
sun set over the far side of the
unnecessary. cial bladder and are working on 22
planet from the comfort of an
human tissues and organs, says 2035
orbital hotel—that, at least,
director Anthony Atala. His group Commercial flights are 100
is according to a panel of 40 2023
has made nickel-size working percent autopilot.
Japanese scientists. In June, Doctors use medicine
hearts, but it could take decades POPsCI Comparison
the Japanese government to control any cancer.
to make sure all new organs can The software will be ready in
released its Foresight Survey,
safely integrate into the body. 5 to 10 years, says Michael
which since 1971 has polled
the country’s top minds to map 2025 Toscano, director of the Asso-
Electric cars travel 310 miles on ciation of Unmanned Vehicle
out Japan’s advances over the
a single charge. Systems, but we’ll probably
next 30 years. Past surveys
have made some accurate POPsCI Comparison never see an unmanned JFK–
With continued improve- LAX flight. Although the Federal
projections. In 1997 the futur-
ments to the energy density Aviation Administration’s Next-
ists said that Internet-based
of lithium-ion batteries, 310 Gen air-traffic-management
phone service would exist in
system will switch planes to
2003, the year Skype debuted. miles will be “feasible by 2018, 2031
and very doable by 2025,” says satellite navigation, which
They’ve had some misses, Earth-orbiting space
Donald Hillebrand, the director could help control autopilot
too: In 1992, they thought sightseeing tours
of transportation research at systems, the FAA currently
scientists would create an go on sale.
Argonne National Laboratory. says that commercial flights
HIV vaccine in 2002. (Possible
In 20 years, though, lithium-air will always be human-flown.
vaccines are only in clinical
batteries, in which lithium and
trials.) Here, Japan’s future, 2030
oxygen react to generate elec-
with a few footnotes from our A.I. is able to form 2035
stable of experts for good tricity, could produce five times
opinions on movies, Scientists extract
measure.—VICTOR ZAPANA as much energy as a lithium-
books and art. uranium and other rare
ion battery of similar mass.
elements from seawater.
2028
Smellovision—televisions that 2037
produce tastes and smells— Seismologists can predict
grace every living room. earthquakes above a magnitude
of 6 up to a year in advance.
2026 2040
Domestic humanoids Earthlings establish a
ALMOST THERE The three- become common. manned lunar base.
wheeled Aptera 2e covers 100
miles on a single battery charge.
OCTOBER 22 The Orionids meteor shower peaks, with the best views in the morning. Traveling 42 miles per second, some meteors may make green streaks in the atmosphere.
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FielDWorK
clockwise from toP left: sUsAN coBB/NoAA/Nssl; JohN oAklANd/NoAA/Nssl; michAel coNiGlio/
but to surround it and capture In fact, 70 percent of tornado LaGrange, Wyoming. It was a
enough data to accurately re-create warnings are false alarms. As a major catch but, as Wurman says,
it in a computer model. With an result, people tend to take the next “one tornado is not enough.”
armada of trucks and vans, 140 warning far less seriously. “We Wicker puts his finger on a
crew members and several tons of detect rotation, and we issue a map. “Here,” he says, pointing
gear—from 40-foot-tall portable warning because we’re scared not to the predicted center of storm
radio masts to weather balloons to,” says Don Burgess, a team leader activity, a spot about 40 miles to
to an unmanned aerial vehicle— who works part-time as a research the east. Because most tornadoes
success requires far more than meteorologist at the University lumber along at about 15 mph,
just daredevil driving. It requires a of Oklahoma. the typical chase strategy is to
great deal of methodical planning, In trying to improve the drive alongside them and deploy
which in turn requires a great situation, the VORTEX2 team sensors and instruments to
deal of advance information. “It’s is faced with a chicken-and- collect data on the fly. But a fast-
tough to do even on days with slow egg quandary: Intercepting moving storm calls for much
storms,” says Josh Wurman, a team more tornadoes requires better different maneuvering. The team
leader from the Center for Severe prediction models, but better members must spread out quickly,
Weather Research. “It’s bordering prediction models require Wicker explains, get ahead of the
on impossible on a day like today.” intercepting more tornadoes. storm, and set up a perimeter of
Now, with a mere five weeks When VORTEX2 completed last instruments capable of measuring
left before the storm-chasing year’s hunt, the team had managed whatever happens within an area
season ends, the VORTEX2 team to surround only one twister, in of about 1,000 square miles and
3 4 5
G THE TRAP
by yourself, let alone wIth 50 to document “but this is just about the worst
from left: NoAA; texAs tech UNiversity; JohN oAklANd/NoAA/Nssl
lower regions of the atmosphere as begin upgrading NEXRAD with new dual-polarization radars, already a
the Earth curves away beneath it. standard part of VORTEX2’s armament, which send out horizontal and
THE HomEmAdE
ToRNAdo TANk
A tornado can pack as much kinetic energy
as a bomb, so veteran storm chaser Reed
15 miles Timmer and his team, who star in the
Discovery Channel series Storm Chasers,
built themselves a four-ton tank dubbed
the Dominator to stay safe on the job.
The team started by gutting a 2007
Chevy Tahoe and then wrapped it in a
16-gauge-steel shell. To fortify the sheet
metal, they sprayed it with a quarter-inch-
thick, bulletproof combination of Kevlar
and polyurethane called Rhino Lining.
Long-band “You can hit it with a sledgehammer,
radar and it’ll bounce right back,” Timmer
says. They also installed bulletproof
windows made of half-inch-thick sheets
of polycarbonate, plastic that’s strong
UAV enough to withstand hailstones the
Rapid-scan size of watermelons and debris flying
radar Weather at speeds of up to 150 miles an hour.
balloon When heading into storms, the crew
straps in with five-point safety harnesses
fit for Nascar, although Timmer admits
that during a chase, he’s often too busy
launching weather probes from miniature
potato guns to buckle up. (He can track
the probes on his laptop as they measure
GPS position, temperature, pressure and
moisture five times a second.) If wind
speeds reach 100 mph and threaten to
Mesonet toss the truck, the crew flips a James
Bond-style switch to activate battery-
powered hydraulics that lower Dominator
vertical microwaves to read the sky of Rhode Island. But at 10:30 a.m., to the ground. A rubber sheath around the
more accurately and distinguish we’re still organizing in the hotel truck’s bottom flares out and creates a
among snow, ice and raindrops. parking lot. Finally, at 11, Wicker vacuum seal to keep out debris and help
A project is also in the works rushes me and one of his graduate anchor the vehicle. And, as tanks go, the
to outfit cellphone towers and students into a minivan, and we Dominator sips fuel, getting 14 miles to
rooftops across the country with drive off, later followed by two of the gallon.—coreY Binns
thousands of Doppler units. For the 10 radar trucks that make up
now, though, the best way to find the mobile Doppler system. We are
tornadoes is still to get in a truck headed for the northern border of
and go look for them. “I don’t think the grid, about 25 miles distant,
we’ll ever be doing this work from where our radar dishes will trace
armchairs,” Wicker says. the storm from afar.
The technicians, meanwhile,
SETTING THE TRAP have managed to repair the
Wicker and other leaders have damaged radar trucks, which are
made their best guess: The storm now headed 40 miles southeast
will strike northeast of Oklahoma of us toward Stroud, closer to
Dick McGowan
City by 4 p.m., leaving the crew just the center of the grid. Individual
a few hours to perfectly position Doppler-radar data sets are useful
50 vehicles across a grid the size to track [continued oN page 87]
solution: City(e)scape
DESIGNERS: MUSTAFA BULGUR AND SINAN GUNAY
Environmental disruptions and technological advances have always
influenced where and how people live. Early humans may have left
Africa after rapid fluctuations in rainfall destroyed their food supply,
and the opening up of the American Southwest occurred roughly in
parallel with improvements in air-conditioning technology. In the
decades ahead, a warming planet and a booming population will again
alter where we live and how we construct our homes.
The most immediately disruptive force could be a rapid rise in
sea levels. A coalition of scientists from Denmark, England and Finland
predicted last year that by the end of this century, melting ice and
thermal expansion will drive up the world’s sea levels by more than Water-storage tank Agricultural module
three feet. It’s unclear how many people that would displace, but
the damage could be vast—approximately 10 percent of the world’s
population lives in coastal areas lower than 30 feet above sea level. photochromic Plexiglas, which adjusts its translucency according to the
Land that remains above water will face increasingly frequent storm strength of the sun. The remaining surfaces would be covered with spiky
surges and flooding. The residents of coastal cities could head for eight-inch-thick photovoltaic panels. (The spikes, Bulgur says, generate
higher land, or they could do something distinctly more drastic: They more energy than standard flat panels, because they increase the surface
could add a second city above the water. area of the solar collector.) Each unit would contain its own “agricultural
New York City, for instance, is an archipelago that could lose as module”—a tall column of soil, held together by a silicone net, that would
much as a fifth of its landmass by 2080. But Mustafa Bulgur and Sinan provide fresh fruit and vegetables and also help insulate the house. A tank
Gunay, recent graduates of Istanbul Technical University’s architecture would store more than 5,000 gallons of freshwater from the citywide supply,
school, suggest that New Yorkers could make up the lost housing by which itself would use highly efficient desalination processes to transform
stringing cables between existing skyscrapers and suspending some the source of the city’s trouble into its nourishment.
600,000 prefabricated homes among them. By tethering a cable over Other architects have proposed a different approach: homes that
the flooded streets and avenues—and even extending those cables out require no land at all. Zigloo, a firm in Canada, envisions a narrow
to structural towers in New York Harbor—it would be possible, they say, underwater skyscraper, deeper than the Empire State Building is tall, that
to safely house up to 2.5 million people. by collecting rain for freshwater and using sun and wind for power would
The homes themselves, most of them no larger than 800 square provide a self-sufficient home for 2,000 people (zigloo.ca). Gro Architects
feet, would be made from lightweight titanium plates and held together in New York proposes harvesting tidal motion to power a network of
by even lighter-weight carbon nanotubes. Each would be secured to floating single-family homes (groarc.com). And with the Sub Biosphere 2,
its support cables by powerful electromagnets. It will be hotter in architect Phil Pauley imagines a completely submergible habitat for as
2080, too, so the northern and southern facades would be covered in many as 200 daring aquanauts (philpauley.com).
BY Suzanne LABarre
KEVIN HAND
problem
OVERPOPULATION
solution: Auto-Défense
DESIGNER: already have been anchored to
STÉPHANE MALKA the interior facade of the arch,
In 2008, for the first time, more and locked into place by means of
than 50 percent of the people simple mortise-and-tenon joints.
on Earth lived in cities. This was In La Défense, the units could be
good news for the environment; stacked as many as 25 high, but
New Yorkers, for example, have Malka’s design could be applied
a carbon footprint that is a third to the side of any building.
of that of their suburban and To get in and out of their
country-dwelling counterparts. homes, residents could catch
But that population shift will also elevators among the offices
present major challenges. By on either side of the arch—the
2030, some five billion people two sides of the arch would be
are expected to live in cities, connected by elevated catwalks
up from more than 3.3 billion supported by suspension
this year—and those cities cables—and move from house to
are expected to be packed. In house by way of more catwalks,
the 2000 national census, for attached to the scaffold itself.
instance, New York City had a Malka’s vision of close-
density of 26,400 people per packed homes has precedent,
square mile. In 2030 that number particularly in Japan, where
is expected to be about 30,000. small-space living has been
New construction will common for decades. In 1952 the
help to alleviate some of the architect Makoto Masuzawa built
crowding, but Stéphane Malka the 538-square-foot Minimum
has another idea: to make better House. Architect Makoto Koizumi
use of the buildings that are revived the design, which can
already there. Malka, a 35-year- house a family of five, in 2002;
old French architect, proposes the Tokyo firm Boo-Hoo-Woo
taking over La Grande Arche currently produces a line of
de la Défense, a 361-foot-tall 15 different dwellings for tiny
office building and monument urban lots based on Koizumi’s
to national brotherhood in revival of the Minimum House
Paris. It’s the perfect building (9tubohouse.com/eng). In
to showcase a system of infill Amsterdam, Keetwonen, a
design. In Malka’s vision, the high-density dormitory made
arch’s hollow belly transforms of shipping containers, already
into a colony of 450 388-square- houses students in 1,000 studio
foot prefab apartments. apartments (tempohousing
Auto-Défense, as he calls the .com). And someday, when even
project, relies on basic modular Los Angeles needs to give up
assembly. Housing units would its sprawling ways, architect
be prefabricated from steel, glass Houston Drum will be ready with
and wood facades stripped from his design for the 25-Hour City,
other buildings, then flat-packed a 1,900-foot-high multi-tower
and delivered to the arch by skyscraper that houses 800,000
truck. On arrival, they would be Angelinos at 26 times the city’s
maneuvered into a structural current population density
scaffolding, which itself would (houstondrum.com).
SURPLUS POWER
Roof-mounted
solar cells and
eggbeater tur-
bines together
generate
KEVIN HAND
problem
DESERTIFICATION
solution: Positive Impact House
DESIGNER: ROBERT PERRY metal coils, which attract condensation that is to magnify solar rays by a factor of as much as
One of the paradoxes of global warming is that even then funneled into a purifying holding tank. (The 2,000, would be capable of generating all of the
as it leads to flooding in some parts of the world, desert air is moister than you might think; Dubai, 80 kilowatt-hours of electricity the homeowners
it will lead to severe water shortages in others. for example, averages 80 percent relative humidity consume daily. Eggbeater wind turbines on the
According to the United Nations, climate change is at certain times of day in January.) Two generators roof would produce another 40 kilowatt-hours. The
likely to reduce rainfall in drylands, which cover would produce enough freshwater for drinking and extra energy would help with any sudden need for
41 percent of the land on Earth, including much of showering, and the shower water would be recycled additional power, but on a normal day they could
the American West. In 2007, the U.N. estimated that for use in flushing toilets and growing food. (A pump it back into the grid, thereby generating
desertification could eventually affect some one related composting system would also generate income. In the U.S, a homeowner sending 40
billion people in at least 100 countries. biogas for cooking.) kilowatt-hours of energy to the grid every day would
Yet architect Robert Perry of Studied Impact Most of the year, the natural flow of air through earn as much as $3,000 annually.
Design, which operates out of Pittsburgh and Dubai, the house’s windows would be enough to cool it. Nearly all of this technology is in small-scale
proposes that deserts need not be unlivable, or But during the hottest months, a fan would draw hot use today. A nonprofit group called FogQuest is
even uncomfortable. His Positive Impact House, a outdoor air into an underground chamber, where harvesting fog to provide water to Ethiopian villages.
3,200-square-foot single-family home, is not only the temperature is 50ºF to 60º year-round, and then In Zimbabwe, the Eastgate Centre shopping mall uses
designed to draw enough water and cool air from the into the basement and up through floor vents. As the huge, perforated, chimney-shaped structures to draw
environment to sustain five people, it will also send cool air warms back up again, it rises and escapes air in from the outside. (Zimbabwe is hot, but air that
energy back into the grid. through a 200-square-foot interior courtyard, whose moves is cooler than stagnant air.) And in Orange
The water comes by way of an atmospheric slim vertical cavity would create a wind tower. County, California, the Groundwater Replenishment
water generator, similar to commercial units The 24 panels of roof-mounted, sun-tracking, System makes sewer water suitable for drinking
used today. These devices run refrigerant through concentrated photovoltaics, which use lenses (gwrsystem.com).
KEVIN HAND
problem
POLLUTION
solution: Sustainable Habitat 2020
DESIGNER: PHILIPS DESIGN suction-cup-shaped “funnels,” it forms a
In the coming decades, advances in pollution membrane between the indoors and outdoors
control may not be enough to counteract that controls the inflow of light, air and water.
the air- and water-poisoning effects of The funnels are embedded with
dual explosions in population and energy photovoltaic cells and sensors, which track
consumption. Within 20 years the number of humidity, wind direction, and the brightness
cars in the world will rise to two billion, and and angle of the sun. As the sensors detect
GREEN HOUSE Air-cleaning, solar-energy- most of them will be powered by gasoline or changing weather conditions, they direct the
harvesting, water-capturing funnels coat the diesel. By 2100 air quality in Southern California funnels to change into the most effective
Sustainable Habitat 2020 apartment building. is expected to violate federal standards 50 shape for the task at hand. For example, on
The funnels change shape to make most efficient
more days a year than it does now. Pollution clear days, the funnels follow the path of the
use of prevailing weather conditions.
will be particularly vexing in fast-developing sun like flowers, transmitting light indoors
countries like China, which according to the and generating enough solar power to provide
World Bank is already home to 20 of the 30 all the building’s electricity. (Energy stored
most polluted cities in the world. In one third during the day is used for lighting at night.)
of China’s cities, for example, the groundwater When it rains, the funnels change shape
is contaminated. Buildings are part of the to become water-capturing cups. As rain
problem too. The nonprofit group Architecture trickles into the cones, the water is pumped
2030 estimates that the residential-building to a cell structure behind the facade, where
sector is responsible for about a fifth of it is filtered, stored, and channeled into a
global greenhouse-gas emissions. closed-loop system in which everything,
In response to these challenges, designers even toilet water, gets recycled. When it’s
at the Dutch electronics giant Philips imagined breezy, the funnels elongate into a trumpet
Sustainable Habitat 2020, an apartment shape—a natural wind tunnel that directs air
building engineered to make life healthy even through a filter and then indoors. (When it’s
in the smoggiest urban environment. “The sunny and breezy, the funnels multitask.)
question we’re posing is a depressing one,” Other architects have begun working
says Clive van Heerden of Philips Design. “At on projects in the same spirit as Sustainable
this rate of urbanization, what do you do if Habitat 2020. The San Francisco firm
the pessimists are right? How do we begin IwamotoScott Architecture, for example,
to start making buildings sustainable?” has proposed a low-rise dwelling called
The high-rise apartment tower, composed the Jellyfish House for a decommissioned
of hundreds of 431-square-foot units, is military base on San Francisco Bay’s
intended for future Chinese megacities. The Treasure Island. The project’s creators say
multifunctional exterior skin is the most the house, with its permeable skin, will be
important part of the structure. Dotted with like a living creature (iwamotoscott.com).
READY TO
To reach the world’s first everything- WEAR When surface fires, and three weeks beneath any flood. Vicino
disaster
proof underground luxury community, I drive east out says that a soon-to-be-installed air-filtration system
strikes, Vicino
of Barstow, California, 50 or so miles into the Mojave says, you will also neutralize any biological, chemical or nuclear
Desert, then turn down an unmarked gravel road, park won’t have attacks. The Barstow branch will stock enough food
in a barren lot surrounded by razor wire, enter what time to pack, and clothing to sustain 135 people for at least a year,
appears to be a small cinderblock garage, and walk so Vivos and in a lifestyle that Vicino describes as compact but
down two steep flights of reinforced-concrete stairs, bunkers will luxurious, like being on a cruise ship. Getting on board
at which point the project’s enthusiastic promoter, be stocked requires a $5,000 deposit, he says, to be held in escrow
with casual
Robert Vicino, greets me with an outstretched hand, until the bunker is ready to move into, at which point
attire, shoes
slams a 3,000-pound blast door behind us, and asks this and plenty of the remainder is due. As of August, several hundred
question: “Do you have a family?” underwear. people had put their money down for a spot in one of
Then: Do I have life insurance? Would I like to When it’s time his bunkers, he says; 75 for Barstow thus far.
have 10 times the life insurance I already have? Would to leave, you’ll Vicino has always had a taste for offbeat business
I like to have something even better? Because I can. get sturdy ventures. In 1977, at the age of 22, he pioneered the
The structure in which we are now standing was built outdoor “giant inflatables” advertising medium by building
by AT&T in 1965 to protect telephone infrastructure apparel to a giant inflatable Jose Cuervo bottle for the liquor
survive the
from a nuclear attack, but now it can protect something company to display at events. Within five years, he
wilderness.
far more important: me and my loved ones. For just says, he had 200 Fortune 500 clients. After he had done
$50,000 each—half off for kids—I can buy a fractional everything he could do in the inflatables sector, he sold
share of the Terra Vivos underground shelter network, his company and began a new venture, speculating
a project that will include at least 19 more “community in fractional shares of resort homes from Europe to
bunkers,” each of them located within 150 to 200 miles Hawaii. (A fractional share is like a timeshare, except
of a major American city. Terra Vivos is a concrete- that buyers actually own a piece of the title.)
and-steel solution to the end times, whether brought The idea to build and sell post-apocalyptic bunkers
about by climate change or nuclear war or even an weighed on Vicino for many years before he acted. In
unavoidable realignment of the cosmic order. Wherever 1980 he saw a replica of the Mayan calendar, the ancient
I happen to be at that terrible moment, I’ll have a place stone carving that predicts that the world will end on
COURTESY TERRAVIVOS.COM
to live the morning after. “I’m not selling life insurance,” December 21, 2012. Vicino recalls the moment clearly.
Vicino explains. “I’m providing life assurance.” “It just gave me this gut-wrenching feeling that I needed
The physical specifications required to assure life to convert a mine to a shelter for 1,000 people with
are striking. The Barstow bunker was built to withstand everything you’d need to survive for a long period of
a 50-megaton nuclear blast 10 miles away, 450mph time.” The decades passed, however, and it wasn’t until
winds, a magnitude-10 earthquake, 10 days of 1,250°F this year, the end times fast approaching, that Vicino
GREEN DREAM
ONE MAN’S MISSION TO BUILD AN ECO-FRIENDLY, AFFORDABLE HOME
THE SPECS
HOUSE: 3,500-square-foot, four-bedroom
contemporary
LOCATION: Greenwich, N.Y.
BUDGET: $350,000
LESSONS LEARNED
F
blended with graphite to lock in
IFTEEN MONTHS AGO, #1: BALANCE BENEFITS OF NEW heat and keep out mold. I was the
I set out to fulfill a lifelong TECHNOLOGY AGAINST RISKS first residential customer to install
ambition of building my THE DREAM: An easy-to-install the panels—and at the time, the
own home using the latest green prefab frame made of insulating, vendor, Lightship Group, was
technology. On a $350,000 budget, recyclable foam panels apparently still working out some
several dreams came true. I THE REALITY: Some panels kinks. The first shipment of panels
installed a solar-powered boiler, a arrived damaged and improperly were damaged en route from
rooftop garden and a graywater cut, stalling construction. the factory in Rhode Island. And
recycling system. Other dreams some of the panels, improperly
were harder: A delivery truck Wooden frames can leak heat cut, wouldn’t fit around my
damaged the recyclable foam and take weeks to measure, cut, home’s steel support beams.
panels meant to form the frame of Follow staff and nail into place. So for the But the company handled its
my home, and I’m also considering photographer budget-minded green builder, mistakes responsibly. It replaced
suing my window contractor. But John B. Carnett’s prefabricated insulating panels the damaged panels and sent
JOHN B. CARNETT
it will all be worth it when we progress on are a smart choice. They hold out a repair crew to handle the
move in next month. For those popsci.com/ up the house and keep it warm. installation, all on its own dime.
considering your own eco-haven, I greendream. My panels are made out of light- In the end, the panels took 14
offer four pieces of advice. gauge steel studs and recyclable days to install instead of eight. If
not for the great customer service, it aluminum windows and doors for IT’S NOT My initial plan called for a $16,800
would have been a disaster. $60,000. His frames use a special EASY BEING geothermal system with two
GREEN Leaky
insulating technique that makes wells that use the constant 50oF
window frames
#2: KNOW YOUR CONTRACTOR them 50 percent more efficient and damaged temperature of the ground to cool
THE DREAM: Efficient, sleek than vinyl ones, so I’d save money insulating and heat my home, and to augment
aluminum windows and doors on heating and cooling costs. panels that my solar panels on cloudy days
THE REALITY: No doors, empty The technology was great; the form the bones and during the night. But with my
window frames, and lawyer bills workmanship not so much. As of the Green budget nearly tapped, I needed a
of press time, my home is still Dream threat- cheaper plan. I discovered that I
I wanted the look of my home without doors. Plastic sheets cover ened to derail could save $7,000 by installing a
the project.
to be industrial yet rustic, so I missing windows, rain puddles single well. To reduce demand on
decided to combine modern collect beneath the windows that the smaller system, I decided to
aluminum windows with 100-year- were installed, and the contractor is eliminate the radiant-heat concrete
old hemlock-and-cedar siding. stalling on repairs. I’ve purchased on my second floor (my wife
Aluminum frames tend to be poor wooden doors instead of aluminum, wanted hardwood floors anyway).
insulators and can cost upward but I’m stuck with empty frames, You’re building a functional home
of $140,000 for a three-bedroom and I can’t install the drywall until on a limited budget. Don’t kill
home, but then I found a window the job is finished. My advice, yourself over the green technology
contractor who promised to especially where custom work is you can’t afford—finish it with the
deliver custom-made triple-paned concerned, is to get references. green technology you can.
process of condensing and packing nuclei, DNA tightly wraps around available for transcription. The
DNA within a cell’s nucleus. An octa- a protein spool, called a histone. memory-formation instructions
A small molecule called an acetyl encoded in the DNA can be
mer of histones package DNA into a group attaches to a particular used to make proteins, helping
structure called a nucleosome. Histone histone known as H4. When this restore memory formation.
H4 is one of five histone groups.
58 POPULAR SCIENCE OCTOBER 2010
Neuron
Hippocampus
Histones
Acetyl group
DNA
Transcription
FAQs
I’M STILL PRETTY YOUNG, SO WHY CAN’T will be encoded. Even though these glitches are HOW CAN I TELL IF I MIGHT LOSE MY
I REMEMBER WHERE I PUT MY KEYS? more common after 40, in most cases, they don’t MEMORY LATER IN LIFE?
Cut yourself some slack. Occasional memory signify the onset of early senility. You probably You can’t know for sure. But you may be more at
glitches can be caused by something as simple don’t need to worry unless you start forgetting risk if you have high cholesterol, a family history of
as not paying attention to your surroundings, a good portion of your vocabulary or losing the dementia, drink heavily, or participate in sports that
lowering the likelihood that a particular memory capacity to do easy math problems. involve multiple blows to the head.
Water intake
Buffer tank
Sand filtration
REVERSE OSMOSIS generates more freshwater out of the editor of Water Desalination
Most desalination plants take STATISTICS the salty Thames water. In a two- Report, estimates that since energy-
advantage of reverse osmosis 400,000 step process, only 50 percent of the recovery devices were introduced
to filter salt from water. Pumps gallons source water becomes drinkable. 15 years ago, they have sliced
force salty water through a sheet Amount of water The engineers say the Beckton the amount of energy required to
of polyamide wound around a purified daily plant’s process will convert 85 produce freshwater in half, from 30
giant cylinder. Water molecules on a typical U.S. percent of river water to freshwater. kilowatt-hours per 1,000 gallons
squeeze between the individual Navy aircraft to less than 15 kilowatt-hours
polyamide chains to pass to carrier, enough ENERGY-RECOVERY DEVICES
the membrane’s far side. The for 1,000 homes The 15 percent that remains, now TIDAL EXPLOITATION
dissolved salt can’t pass between a briny concentrate, is still under The more salt there is in the water,
the polymer chains, so it stays 73 pressure, and that pressure can the more it costs to get it out, so
million
KOPPILLUSTRATION.COM
behind. The Beckton plant uses be recaptured. The brine spins Beckton plant engineers adjust
a unique four-stage reverse- gallons a turbine in the plant’s energy- their approach depending on the
osmosis process (most plants Capacity per day recovery devices. This turbine runs tide. They collect the estuary water
use just one or two), running the of the largest a pump that boosts the pressure of in huge tanks in the hours leading
brackish water through four sets reverse-osmosis the next batch of seawater moving up to the low tide, so they get river
of membranes, each step of which plant in the world, through the system. Tom Pankratz, water with a concentration of less
located in Israel
Freshwater essential
jargon
FORWARD OSMOSIS:
Osmosis is the process in
which water moves from
an area of low solute
concentration (such as
salt or sugar) through
a membrane to an area
of high concentration.
In one system, patented
by Massachusetts
company Oasys, a
membrane separates
saltwater from a highly
concentrated solution
Energy-capture turbines of ammonia salts.
The water molecules
migrate from the
saltwater into a solution
of ammonia salts. To
Reverse osmosis generate freshwater, the
ammonia is removed
from the water by low-
Ultrafiltration grade heat. This process
requires less energy
than reverse osmosis.
BIOMIMETIC
MEMBRANES:
Waste brine
Channels of proteins
than one third that of normal called aquaporins
seawater. When the tide starts
embedded in a
rolling in and the salinity starts
increasing, the tanks’ pumps
shut down.
WASTE TREATMENT
FAQs
HOW MUCH DOES HOW MANY
polymer membrane
filter freshwater from
saltwater, much like
a kidney recovers
The Beckton plant coordinates DESALINATION COST? DESALINATION PLANTS
with its neighbor, a large sewage- In general, desalinated ARE THERE IN THE U.S.? water from urine. (In
treatment plant. Treated effluent brackish water and regular About 250, each of which has fact, multiple kinds of
from the sewage plant is blended treated municipal water can the capacity to generate greater aquaporins are found in
with the briny concentrate—an cost about $1.50 per 1,000 than 0.025 million gallons a kidneys.) The aquaporin
environmental hazard—and gallons, whereas desalinated day. Almost half of them are in
diluted, making the discharge less seawater may cost $2.50 to $3 Florida, with dozens of plants in
proteins preferentially
salty than the river. per 1,000 gallons. California and Texas. draw the water molecules
through the membrane.
POPSCI.COM POPULAR SCIENCE 61
UNNATURAL GAS A dramatic technique for mining oil and natural gas called
hydraulic fracturing is under fire. Here’s why
Need some natural gas? To generate in horizontal drilling technologies have
more of it—and more income—energy allowed energy producers to reach gas packed
companies are resorting to creative measures, in dense rock formations that happen to
eking out every last bit from the gas wells coexist with the sources of drinking water
they drill. But environmentalists and public- for a sizeable segment of the U.S. population.
health advocates warn that one such process, This fall, the Environmental Protection
called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, can Agency is releasing a plan to study the health
also taint nearby water supplies. Advances hazards of the practice.—Corey Binns
Aquifer
HOW TO 1. BLAST IT
Once a well is drilled and a pipe is
2. FRAC IT
To make the fracturing fluid, well
WRING GAS
secured half a mile or more into workers mix sand and a variety of
the shale, well workers send a potentially hazardous chemicals,
KOPPILLUSTRATION.COM
“perf” gun down into the pipe. The such as benzene, into the water.
STATISTICS
25
essential jargon Percentage of U.S.
TCF: Units of a trillion cubic feet
are used to measure resources in the
ground, or annual national energy
consumption. One tcf is enough natural
energy produced
from natural gas
70,000
Number of wells
FAQs
WHY FRAC?
gas to heat 15 million homes for one planned for the It’s cheaper for an energy company
year, generate 100 billion kilowatt- Marcellus Shale in to drill one well with multiple
New York State horizontal legs and frac the well than
hours of electricity, or fuel 12 million it is to drill many vertical wells and
natural-gas-fired vehicles for one year. 250,000 build infrastructure for each one. In
Number of wells Pennsylvania, some customers saw the
in Pennsylvania in results fracking could have on their
the current plan utility bills, which dropped from $122
for the Marcellus to $102 in one month.
Shale
WHAT’S THE DANGER IN
8 FRACKING?
million Each step has room for error. Trucks
Maximum number can spill chemicals, wells can blow
of gallons of frac out belowground, wastewater holding
fluid used in a tanks can spring holes. Carcinogenic
single well chemicals, including benzene, may leak
from the well into an aquifer. A single
25,000 well could contain enough benzene
Number of gallons to contaminate 100 billion gallons of
of chemicals used drinking water, according to drilling-
in that same well company disclosures in New York State.
THE LIFE OF
A DUST GRAIN
1. INSIDE THE STAR
Astronomers don’t know the
identity of all the interstellar dust
factories, but they do know that red
giants—stars of up to eight solar-
masses in the final stages of their
life—generate quite a bit of dust.
Dust components, such as carbon
and oxygen, are made deep in the
star’s core when helium atoms
fuse together.
KOPPILLUSTRATION.COM
FAQs
IS INTERSTELLAR DUST
VISIBLE FROM EARTH?
Yes! On a clear night far from city
lights, stargazers can see dark patches
within the smooth band of the Milky
Way near the constellation Cygnus.
Those patches are ribbons of dust that
block the stars behind them.
essential jargon
INTERSTELLAR
STATISTICS MEDIUM: What
0.1 astronomers call all
Diameter in
microns of a that stuff between the
typical interstellar stars. Dust grains are
dust grain, about only about 1 percent
the same as a of its mass, with
particle of soot
hydrogen accounting
5 for 80 percent and
Average number helium providing
up to the surface. The conditions candidate dust particles from of yards between most of the rest.
and elements present in the stellar the Stardust spacecraft, which interstellar dust
atmosphere will dictate the chemical returned to Earth in 2006 after grains
INTERSTELLAR
composition of the dust. Then the seven years of collecting dust
star’s pulsations and winds fling samples in space. This will bring 50 DUST: Dust grains
those atoms into space. the total number of dust grains million are agglomerations
currently in human possession to Amount of suns of atoms, including
3. IN INTERSTELLAR SPACE three. Finding even one requires a needed to equal
all the dust in the
carbon, silicon, oxygen,
As the atoms continue to drift painstaking search of Stardust’s
through space, they cool and particle trap using a microscope. Milky Way magnesium and
condense into dust grains. From The first dust particle, also aluminum. Silicon-rich
there, new dust grains will float captured by the Stardust grains make up about
out into the cosmos, where they experiment, was announced in 70 percent of the dust
may collect into very small rocks, March. Of the three, two of the
then asteroids, then planets. In July, particles are magnesium-rich,
inventory, and carbon-
planetary scientists announced two while the third is carbon-based. rich grains constitute
the remainder.
POPSCI.COM POPULAR SCIENCE 65
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TIPS, TRICKS, HACKS AND DO-IT-YOURSELF PROJECTS
72 74
Unlock your car Make your netbook Improve your com-
doors with a phone readable in bright sun puter's performance
SubMobile
designed the narrow, tall sub
using CAD software. The curved
part of the frame is mostly 1x4
beams, while the underside is
steel. For the rest of the hull, the
couple found that four layers
A husband and wife build a replica of an odd of quarter-inch-thick plywood
19th-century underwater craft pressed together by epoxy was
the best mix of strong and cheap.
For the 40-inch-tall, 4.5-inch-thick
wheels, they cut and sandwiched
In 1894, American inventor marine epoxy to overflow a bathtub. STICKING together three layers of lumber
Simon Lake designed the Because no pictures of the POINT The and added leftover treads from a
builders used
Argonaut Jr., a wheeled vehicle Argonaut Jr.'s interior remain, local tire shop.
60 gallons
that would drive along the making an exact replica would of epoxy to The initial test dive started
seafloor, the only way to reliably have been impossible. Instead, hold the sub poorly when the trailer carrying
navigate underwater at the the Jacksons added a few modern together. the sub broke loose and careened
time. The unusual concept has touches while staying faithful into the lake. But the Jacksons
inspired sub aficionados ever to the basic design. Like its recovered, poured a celebratory
since. Among its fans are Doug predecessor probably was, it beer on the hull, closed the
and Kay Jackson, married DIYers is an ambient sub—it keeps hatch, and took the Argonaut
from Tulsa, Oklahoma, who in the air pressure inside the Jr. 2010 for its first successful
BEN SKLAR
June built a watertight replica cabin equal to the water drive, 10 feet below the surface
from lumber, lead and enough pressure outside. Doug of the water.—GREGORY MONE
[continued on next page]
THE H2WHOA CREDO: DIY CAN BE DANGEROUS. We review all our projects before publishing
them, but ultimately your safety is your responsibility. always wear protective gear, take proper
safety precautions, and follow all laws and regulations.
OCTOBER 2010 POPULAR SCIENCE 67
Hear the buzz?
HoW 2.0 You built WHat ?! [continued from
preceding page]
HOW IT WORKS
tiME: 8 MONTHS COst: $5,000
feet of roller chain and matching sprockets, custom-
cut from steel plates on their CNC machine. A dozen
turns of the crank moves the sub about 10 feet.
SAFETY
DESCENT The Jacksons received help from sub experts on
The operators lower a pair of anchors to the seafloor the Internet, many of whom urged them to install a
and, from the sub’s single cabin, open a series of drop-weight system for emergencies. They ended up
valves linked to six ballast tanks. Water floods the cutting or casting 3,500 pounds of lead blocks that
tanks, making the vessel heavier. An electronic fit jigsaw-like into the exposed steel frame on the
anchor-winch controller winds up the cable, further bottom. If they need to ascend immediately, they can
pulling the sub down. As Argonaut Jr. descends slowly, turn a handle that releases all the blocks at once. With
an automatic air-pressurization system retrofitted to 3,500 pounds shed, the sub, weighing a scant 1.25
the craft draws air into the cabin from scuba tanks, tons, rockets up to the surface. The sudden change
equalizing with the ambient water pressure. in pressure could cause the sub to explode, though,
so Doug says that in all but the direst circumstances,
ASCENT “I’d swim out and leave the sub on the bottom.”
To surface, the operators drop the anchors (stored
outside) again. Once those hit the floor, the sub rises.
The Jacksons let out more cable and open valves that
release compressed air into the ballast tanks, gradu-
ally expelling the water and making the sub more
buoyant. “You open or close valves, and you go down
or you go up,” Kay explains. “It’s really simple.”
DRIVING
The Jacksons welded a trolling motor normally used
for small fishing boats to the steel-pipe-based tiller.
By turning the tiller’s handle, they redirect the motor’s
propeller and turn the sub. They can also use a hand
crank to drive the craft. The drivetrain consists of 30
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How a cold turns Hair in food:
into a pandemic How bad is it?
A
Waterproofer can not be used on
We’ve all sucked down a Besides, Gray says, the temporary floors because it is not formulated to
milkshake so quickly that it pain can’t do any harm because it has withstand foot traffic it is a good idea
causes a sudden headache— nothing to do with the brain. to protect horizontal masonry surface
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Well, think about how you surrender your will to message is telling people that their safety and security
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choices based on a person’s likes and dislikes, wants laws creating forces to guide their activities and that
and don’t wants, judgments and beliefs, thereby, over those laws expressed the will of the creator—not to
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POPSCI’s 138 American Scientists proposed
lightweight yet sturdy foam. To
years at see how architects are coming
popsci.com/ up with ambitious solutions to
archives. today’s most pressing problems,
turn to page 44.—VICTOR ZAPANA
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