Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
COST OF DEBT
Industrial Yield
AAA 5.22%
AA 5.38%
A 5.84%
BBB 7.23%
BB 9.69%
B 10.84%
Bearing Companies Credit Rating Yield Tax Cost of Debt (net tax)
Timken BBB 7.23% 40% 4.3%
Torrington (IR Division) A 5.84% 40% 3.5%
WACC = Cost of Debt (kd) xWeight of Debt (wd) + Cost of Equity (ke) x Weight of Equity
WACC = 3.5% x 37.6% + 11.6% x 62.4%
WACC = 8.55% WACC
SUMMARY OF ASSUMPTIONS
Beta 1.03
Risk Free Rate (Rf) 4.97%
Risk Market Premium (Rmp) 6.40%
Cost of Debt (kd) 3.5%
Cost of Equity (ke) 11.6%
WACC 8.55%
Credit Rating
BBB
A
Kd
2006E 2007E
$1,548.6 $1,649.2
$109.5 $116.7
6.5% 6.5%
7.1% 7.1%
$150.0 $160.0
$102.0 $108.5
$1,337.04 $1,424.08
86.3% 86.3% 86.3%
Torrington Stand alone valuation
Projected
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005
6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
Net sales $1,204 1,282.0 1,365.3 1,454.1
Operating costs (86.3%) (1,107.1) (1,178.7) (1,255.2)
Less: Depreciation $ (80.00) (84.2) (90.0) (96.0)
Operating income (7.1%) $ 85.2 90.7 96.6 102.9
Less: Tax $ (34.06) (36.3) (38.6) (41.1)
Earnings after tax $ 51.09 54.4 57.9 61.7
Add: Depreciation $ 80.00 84.2 90.0 96.0
Less: CAPEX $ (41.00) (175.0) (130.0) (140.0)
Change in Working Capital (8.1) (8.7) (9.2)
Free Cash Flows Firm (FCFF) (44.5) 9.3 8.5
Terminal value (TV)
FCFF + TV (44.5) 9.3 8.5
PV factor 0.921 0.849 0.782
PV FCFF (41.0) 7.9 6.6
Enterprise Value (EV)
2001 2002
Current Assets 828.4 968.3
Current Liabilities 641.2 634.1
Sales 2447.2 2550.1
% current assets to sales 33.9% 38.0%
% current liabilities to sales 26.2% 24.9%
%NWC 7.6% 13.1% 10.4% average
Projected Steady state Market multiple Valuation
2006 2007 2008 Data tahun 2002
6.5% 6.5% 3.2% EBITDA Torrington = Operating Income + Depreciation
1,548.6 1,649.2 1,702.0 EBITDA Torrington = $85.2 + 80 = $165.2
(1,337.0) (1,424.1) (1,468.8)
(102.0) (108.5) (112.0) Enterprise value/ EBITDA Timken = 5.9 dari Exhibit 8
109.5 116.7 121.2
(43.8) (46.7) (48.5) Enterprise Value Torrington = $165.2 x 5.9
65.7 70.0 72.7 Enterprise Value Torrington
102.0 108.5 111.8
(150.0) (160.0) (164.8) Estimated cost to acquire Torrington
(9.8) (10.5) (5.5)
7.9 8.0 14.2
265.2
7.9 273.2
0.720 0.664
5.7 181.3
$ 160.5
$ 974.68
$ 800.00
Torrington With-Synergy Valuation
Projected ($ in million)
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Net sales 1,203.8 1,336.2 1,483.1 1,646.3 1,827.4
Operating Costs (86.3%) (1,153.1) (1,280.0) (1,420.7) (1,577.0)
Less: Integration Costs (65.0) (65.0) - -
Add: Cost Saving - - - -
Less: Depreciation (84.2) (90.0) (96.0) (102.0)
Operating Income 33.9 48.2 129.5 148.4
Less: Tax (13.5) (19.3) (51.8) (59.3)
Earnings After Tax 20.3 28.9 77.7 89.0
Add: Depreciation 84.2 90.0 96.0 102.0
Less: CAPEX (175.0) (130.0) (140.0) (150.0)
Change in Working Capital (13.8) (15.3) (17.0) (18.8)
Free Cash Flows (FCF) (84.3) (26.4) 16.8 22.2
Terminal Value (TV)
FCFF + TV (84.3) (26.4) 16.8 22.2
PV Factor 0.921 0.849 0.782 0.720
PV FCFF (77.6) (22.4) 13.1 16.0
Enterprise Value (EV)
2007 2008
108.50 $ 111.76
(160.00) $ (164.80)
210.95 $ 217.70
(20.91) $ (6.75)
3.22%
3.20%
Timken Capital Structure
Bearing Companies Debt Equity Capital Debt to Cap Ratio
Initial Capital Structure 461.2 609.1 1,070.3 43.1%
Additional Debt due to Acquisition 200.0 600.0 800.0
Capital Structure after Acquisition 661.2 1209.1 1,870.3 35.4%
Jika Timken mengakuisisi Torrington dengan permbayaran tunai yang diperoleh dari hasil pinjaman baru sebesar $80
Dengan adanya pinjaman baru, maka Debt to Capital Ratio Timken akan menjadi 67% dan akan menurunkan credit g
AAA AA A BBB
EBIT interest coverage (x) 23.4 13.3 6.3 3.9
EBITDA interest coverage (x) 25.3 16.9 8.5 5.4
EBITDA/sales (%) 23.4% 24.0% 18.1% 15.5%
Total debt/capital (%) 5.0% 35.9% 42.6% 47.0%
Untuk mempertahankan credit rating tidak turun dari BBB maka Timken harus menjaga rasio debt to capital nya mini
Bearing Companies Debt Equity Capital Debt to Cap Ratio
Initial Capital Structure 461.2 609.1 1,070.3 43%
Additional Debt due to Acquisition ? ? 800.0
Capital Structure after Acquisition 879.0 991.3 1,870.3 47%
47% 53%
Suggested Capital Structure
Additional Debt 417.8 maximum debt yang bisa dipinjam oleh Timken untuk mempertah
Additional Equity 382.2
Total Fund 800.0
Credit Rating Cost of Debt
BBB 7.23%
AA 5.38%
ri hasil pinjaman baru sebesar $800, maka akan mengakibatkan komposisi struktur modal berubah
7% dan akan menurunkan credit grade rating dari BBB menjadi B yang berdampak pada peningkatan cost of debt (before tax) d
BBB 7.23%
Yield
5.38%
5.38%
5.38%
5.84%
7.23%
9.69%
9.69%
10.84%
10.84%
Mengitung Enterprise Value
EBITDA (Exhibit 8) 257.2
Enterprise value / EBITDA (Exhibit 8) 5.9
Enterprise Value (Timken) 1,517.48
Enterprise Value (Torrington) 1,103.00
Combined Value (with synergy) 2,620.48
Current Debt 461.20
Cash 82.10
Value of Payments
Value from Cash Payment 800.0 400.0 -
Value from Timken Shares - 459.0 894.5
Total Value $800.00 $859.03 $894.49
Ratio Definitions:
Liabilities
Accounts Payable 258.0 296.5
Current Portion of Long Term Debt 42.4 111.1
Notes Payable 2.0 0.0
Other Current Liabilities 338.8 226.5
Total Current Liabilities 641.2 634.1
Long Term Debt 368.2 350.1
Deferred Tax Liability 742.0 1,155.1
Total Liabilities 1,751.3 2,139.3
Shareholders' Equity 781.7 609.1
Total Liabilities & Owners Equity. 2,533.1 2,748.4
Ingersoll-Rand and Torrington Comparative Income Statements, 2001–02
($ millions, except percentages)
Ingersoll-Rand
Torrington
Liabilities
Accounts Payable $701.6 $2,347.4
Accrued Expenses 1,470.7 1,155.5
Short Term Debt 561.9 0.0
Other Current Liabilities 249.3 295.2
Total Current Assets 2,983.5 3,798.1
Long Term Debt 2,900.7 2,092.1
Minority Interests 107.6 115.1
Other Noncurrent Liabilities 1,225.4 1,326.1
Total Liabilities 7,217.2 7,331.4
Shareholders' Equity 3,916.6 3,478.2
Total Liabilities & Owners Equity $11,133.8 $10,809.6
This data was extracted by EdgarScan from the PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Technology Centre.
nology Centre.
Torrington Financial Summary and Projections, 1999–2007
($ millions)
Sales Growth -6.3% -13.5% 19.9% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
Operating Margin 11.8% 14.9% 7.8% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
Capital Expenditures $84.0 $85.0 $45.0 $41.0 $175.0 $130.0 $140.0 $150.0 $160.0
Depreciation Expense $75.0 $77.0 $79.0 $80.0 $84.2 $90.0 $96.0 $102.0 $108.5
`
Financial Data on Companies in Bearing Industry
EBITDA Price
Net Interest # of Per
Bearing Companies Beta Debt* Sales* EBITDA Income* Coverage Shares* Share
Kaydon Corp. 1.25 72.4 279.4 60.1 25.4 3.6 30.3 20.0
NN Inc. 0.85 53.1 180.2 26.2 4.7 6.5 15.4 9.3
Timken 1.10 461.2 2,550.1 257.2 51.5 7.5 63.4 16.8
Commercial Metals 0.63 255.6 2,441.5 138.2 40.5 5.2 28.0 17.9
Mueller Industries 1.08 18.2 955.3 123.9 71.2 84.9 34.3 25.9
Precision Castparts Corp 1.10 612.4 2,117.2 389.6 159.4 6.2 52.8 21.7
Quanex Corp. 0.75 75.6 994.4 127.0 55.5 5.2 16.4 34.7
Worthington Industries 0.49 290.9 2,219.9 188.0 75.2 2.4 85.9 18.7
Debt 400
Rate 10.84%
Assumed matu 6 years
Cost of debt 7.23%
43.36 0.342187
7.23%
43.36 4.732883
205.2178
Enterprise
EBITDA Value/ Debt Perbandingan Rasio Keuangan
Price
Earning Per Earning
% of Sales EBITDA Rating EPS PER Bearing Companies Share Ratio
21.5% 11.3 0.84 23.88 Kaydon Corp. 0.84 23.88
14.5% 7.5 0.30 30.49 NN Inc. 0.30 30.49
10.1% 5.9 BBB 0.81 20.64 Timken 0.81 20.64
5.7% 5.5 BBB 1.45 12.38 Commercial Metals 1.45 12.38
13.0% 7.3 2.08 12.47 Mueller Industries 2.08 12.47
18.4% 4.5 BBB- 3.02 7.18 Precision Castparts Corp 3.02 7.18
12.8% 5.1 3.38 10.27 Quanex Corp. 3.38 10.27
8.5% 10.1 BBB 0.87 21.38 Worthington Industries 0.87 21.38
17.34 Average 17.34
Enterprise
Enterprise Enterprise Method Value
Value/ Value Discounted Cash Flows (stand alone) $ 160.5
EBITDA Market value Market Multiple Valuation $ 974.7
11.3 678.9 607.272 679.6 0.106479 Discounted Cash Flows (with synergies) $ 1,103.0
7.5 196.3 142.145 195.3 0.272097
5.9 1,517.7 1062.15 1,523.4 0.302754 Estimated Torrington Value $ 800.0
5.5 760.1 501.67 757.3 0.33756 Synergy Premium $ 303.0
128.7
7.3 904.6 887.256 905.4 0.020064
4.5 1,753.2 1143.79 1,756.2 0.348709
5.1 647.9 569.531 645.1 0.117138
10.1 1,899.2 1607.25 1,898.1 0.153247
57.2
7.15
7.41%
7.23%
10.84%
263.1250255777
263.1250255777 468.34283
Enterprise EBITDA
Value % of Sales
678.9 21.5%
196.3 14.5%
1,517.7 10.1%
760.1 5.7%
904.6 13.0%
1,753.2 18.4%
647.9 12.8%
1,899.2 8.5%
Capital-Market Information
(December 2002)
Government Yield
Short Term 1.86%
Intermediat 3.55%
Long Term 4.97%
Industrials
AAA 5.22%
AA 5.38%
A 5.84%
BBB 7.23%
BB 9.69%
B 10.84%