ISLAMABAD

INSIGHT

Nawaz Surrenders, Asks

Shahbaz to Get a Deal
From Generals
But deal with Zardari to be unmitigated disaster

Shaheen Sehbai


WATCHING a petrified khadim-e-aala Shahbaz
Sharif publicly begging for a deal from the Generals,
offering to form a national unity government, giving up
civilian control over national security, foreign and
economic policies, rebuffing his brother on stupid
confrontationist policies, meant three simple things:
1. His big bro has surrendered and given up the
“kyoon-nikala” fight; 2. Misguided, ignorant Destroyer-
in-Chief of her father, Maryam, has been given a big
dose of Valium to sleep quietly; and 3. Shahbaz has
been told to accept anything and everything for just one concession --- let
the family go and keep our stolen money without a conviction.
This also means that Nawaz and Maryam are not coming back to face the
courts or campaign in the elections.
Practically they have conceded defeat on the ground.
If the scenario gets a little murkier, they may announce a boycott arguing
internationally that they were hounded out and the election without them
was a farce.
Those who will still contest on the N ticket will do so on their own
strength, as the party symbol has become a big drag. Hence a chunk has
already abandoned the symbol to contest as an independent.
 From following a sick and dying lion, they have jumped on a military jeep.
Nothing turned out to be a bigger disaster for the
party than Nawaz’s fits of dissent and his daughter’s
foolish arrogance. She must have learnt by now that
made-up good looks do not always bring good results.
In this situation Begum Kulsoom Nawaz’s medical
condition has become a huge problem. If she is on a
deathbed, how long will she be allowed to survive and
whether she would be brought back to Pakistan for
burial, if she expires before elections.
If she is not that sick, Nawaz will lose more face for using her as a political
tool.
So Nawaz and his party is fast becoming a non-factor, which brings up
another huge problem for the so-called deep establishment --- the
importance and re-emergence of Asif Zardari as a player.
According to insiders who have been talking to key men in the
establishment, the original thinking was that if without any direct
interference, Nawaz and family were sidelined, mainly through court
decisions, a moderate leadership under Raja Zafarul Haq, Khaqan Abbasi or
Choudhry Nisar could come up and take control of the party to keep it
relevant in parliament.
Many of the N-leaguers were still acceptable to the decision-makers as
they had not been a part of the loot and plunder that the Sharifs and their
cronies were indulging in.
With them in the new parliament and with Imran as the emerging player,
a coalition of goodies could have been formed, keeping Asif Zardari and his
cronies still at an arms distance.
There would then be no need for a huge shake-up, especially at a time
when Pakistan needed a cohesive internal leadership that could meet the
regional and international challenges with a clear focus and well considered
policies.
The collapse of Nawaz narrative and the
mass exodus from his party have shaken the
think tanks of the Establishment.
Realizing the implications a section of the
decision makers started a quiet dialogue with
Asif Zardari and it continued for some time.
 Zardari was desperately trying to open this window after the “brick-vs-
bricks” speech and he jumped on the idea. His long stays and talks in
Lahore and Islamabad, a low-profile demeanour, almost near absence from
the scene, leaving son Bilawal to keep the jiyalas engaged, gave him enough
confidence to start making demands.
Some of his trial demands like letting Dr Asim Hussain go or keep trials of
Uzair Baloch and Sharjeel Memon at bay gave him confidence.
As a shrewd negotiator, when he felt the other side was stuck, he started
making tougher demands like immunity from corruption cases in shape of a
second term in the Presidency.
The latest news is that the Establishment is sharply divided, as there was
a huge backlash and a grossly negative feedback when this idea started
circulating in key circles and finally got out in the public domain.
The problem being considered and discussed was that Imran Khan was
gaining strength but his own house was not in order and the political vision
and maturity of Khan could not be trusted with a free hand given to him for
running the show.
“Khan could lead the pack but he has to be tightly controlled and with
Nawaz out, there is no one but Zardari who can do this,” a senior
international bureaucrat told me while visiting Washington.
Initially Zardari wanted that his position in Sindh should not be challenged
or artificially changed. That was not guaranteed. The GDA is gaining
strength and PTI is encroaching. Zardari even got ready to share power with
GDA like the Balochistan formula or 2.5-year terms. GDA wanted the first
term and there was a breakdown.
The wild backlash came as more people were not ready to trust Zardari
and his past was worse than even the Sharifs.
So the choice now is either an unpredictable Imran Khan or a black-faced
Zardari. A combination that could stick without shaking the system is yet to
emerge.
Serious thought is being given to these choices and if there is no
consensus, the confusion and lack of clarity could even threaten holding of
elections in time. Many think a few more weeks may not matter.
Imran, meanwhile, has to convince a skeptical Establishment that he
would be a responsible leader and not act on wishes, whispers and whims
of the few in his close circle, the insider said. “Imran does not have
dependable and seasoned intermediaries who could talk on his behalf and
give firm assurances. He himself hardly has time to indulge in such talk,
living in his own dreamy world of fantasies while his top party leadership is
tearing itself apart.”
But Zardari’s return to the presidency will be an absolute and an
unmitigated disaster for all the top people including the honorable judges
of the Supreme Court, the army generals, civil society and some sections of
the media who have tolerated abuses, losses and insults but have worked
hard to clean up the system
That would signal an end to the two-year long campaign against top-level
corruption, the theory of the supremacy of the law and the constitution, a
complete compromise on the high moral stand of the establishment that
they would not let any harm come to the country. Return of Zee would be
fatal a blow to their face.
A Nawaz thrown out because of Panama and a Zardari, despite his
unexplained billions now dished out to children as gifts, will throw up
monumental questions.
The only constitutional and acceptable solution out of this quagmire
would be to clean up the system before the elections and the solemn
affidavits submitted by all candidates have provided this God-given
opportunity.
Measured on this single yardstick, ruthlessly and honestly, many of these
sharks will be netted before they enter a new parliament.
If care is not exercised now and the impression of selective accountability,
targeting some and sparing others, persists, the entire effort would go
waste.
If Sharifs, Zardaris, Khans, waderas, Choudhries, other looters and
plunderers make their way back into the system, using one or the other
pretext or loophole, Pakistan would come back to Square-1, as it existed
before Panama.
Who will then be responsible for the consequences?
Obviously those now in the corridors of real power, the decision-makers.