Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia’s National Elections:
Implications for the Region and
Relations with China and the
United States
June 28, 2018
We are preparing a series of reports on Cambodia’s future.
On the Cambodian national elections scheduled for 29 July: how important are they
in terms of regional stability -- Cambodia's relationship with China, and therefore the
United States that is threatening sanctions in response to the banning of the
opposition?
ANSWER: Cambodia’s July elections will have little if any impact on regional security.
Southeast Asia weathered the backlash of Cambodia’s 2013 elections. Cambodian
security forces are capable to containing if not suppressing any serious eruption of
violence. There is no real opposition party to lead post-election protests as in 2013.
The Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), which was eviscerated by Hun Sen, is
calling for a boycott. This is likely to dilute any opposition reaction when the election
results are announced. Given the strong prevailing regional norm of non-interference
in the internal affairs of another country, no member of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) is likely to be critical of Cambodia.
China’s interests are best served by stability in Cambodia as well as a compliant regime
in Phnom Penh friendly to China’s commercial and security interests. China will
welcome the re-election of the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and Hun Sen’s
continuation in office as prime minister. Beijing’s actions will resonate in the region
demonstrating that China is true to its word of non-interference.NBon-interference
was one of the five principles of peaceful co-existence adopted by China and India in
1954; it became a hallmark norm of the Non-Aligned Movement as well as ASEAN.
The United States has put itself out on a limb in its response to the banning of the
CNRP. The U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on the head of Hun Sen’s
bodyguard unit and the U.S. has cut aid. Congress has imposed visa restrictions on
Cambodian officials who have undermined democracy and is threatening further
sanctions via the draft Cambodia Democracy Act of 2018. None of this will phase Hun
Sen. Cambodia will always have seat at the ASEAN table and, as ASEAN demonstrated
over Myanmar, ASEAN will resist external pressure to isolate Cambodia. The likely
outcome for the United States is marginalization and less U.S. influence in Phnom
Penh.
Cambodia has one Achilles’ heel, and that is the cut off of favorable conditions for the
export of its garments and textiles to the United States. This would hurt the
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Cambodian government as the U.S. is a major export market. But it would also impact
negatively on textile workers.
The U.S. State Department has been more proactive in responding to regimes that
undermine democracy and human rights under Secretary Mike Pompeo. Whatever
action the United States takes against Cambodia, China will provide countervailing
support for Hun Sen.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia’s National Elections: Implications for

the Region and Relations with China and the United States,” Thayer Consultancy
Background Brief, June 28, 2018. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.