03 PPMB - Anticipation and Flexibility

Titolo presentazione
Projectsottotitolo
and programme management B
Anticipation and flexibility
 Milano, XX mese 20XX
Prof Mauro Mancini
© Mauro Mancini
Agenda
• Project Principles
• Problem solving
• Anticipation
• Flexibility
© Mauro Mancini 2
1
Problem solving
© Elena Pellizzoni
Problem solving cycles
Iterations
Design input
from other
phases Objectives Alternative Physical or logical Results analysis Solution
identification Experiments
generations modeling and evaluation
(E) E=f(D,A)
(D) (f) (E)
© Mauro Mancini 4
2
Problem solving cycles
 Project phases
Internal cycle
Solutions
Internal cycle
Constraints and
opportunities
 Product components
Components
design
System
design Integration
 Current and future projects

© Mauro Mancini 5
Consequences of errors in the problem solving

interaction management
• Change previous solutions decisions (recycle)

• Development cost and time increase
• Face the problems in the last phases

• Development cost and time increase
• No optimal solutions for the final output

• Quality reduction of the final output
© Mauro Mancini 6
3
Boeing Example
« … You have 5’000 engineers designing an airplane. It’s very difficult
for these engineers to coordinate themselves with two-dimensional
pieces of paper, or for a designer who is designing an air-conditioning
duct to walk over to somebody who is in Structures and say:
“Hi, here’s my duct - how does it fit in your structure?”
It is very difficult with two-dimensional pictures.
So we ended up using [physical] mock-ups and, quite honestly, also

using the final assembly line to complete the integration. And it
was very expensive. You end up with an airplane that’s very difficult
to build. The first time that components come together is on the
assembly line. And they don’t fit- So we had a tremendous cost on
the first few airplanes to make sure that all the parts fit together … ».
Chief Engineer, Boeing 777, Boeing

Source: Sabbagh, 1996
© Mauro Mancini 7
Costs of change
Cost and time of

design changes
TOO LATE
Phase where an
unexpected event
Project Life cycle emerges
Source: Verganti, 2000
© Elena Pellizzoni 8
4
Critical resource: knowledge
Iterations
Design input
from other
phases Objectives Alternative Physical or logical Results analysis Solution
identification Experiments
generations modeling and evaluation
(E) E=f(D,A)
(D) (f) (E)
Modeling
Relations methods Production
among and
Stakeholders variables consumption Final design
needs environment effects
Knowledge
Uncertainty
• Not all the alternatives/opportunities are known from the
beginning
• New ideas and technology opportunities may raise up during the
development process
• Some problem solving cycles (e.g. production process) are
concentrated in the late stages of the development process
• The real effects, both local and systemic, will appear in the
late stages of the development process
• Compatibility of the components only when they are integrated
• Producibility only when the production is started
• Functionalities, performances, security, customer satisfaction, only
after the product is sold
• Eco-efficiency only during the product recycling
• Components reusability only after product use
© Mauro Mancini 11
5
Uncertainty trend
Uncertainty Cost and time of

design changes
trend
TOO EARLY
Phase where an
unexpected event
Opportunity window

design changes
trend
TOO EARLY
TOO LATE
Phase where an
unexpected event
6
Agenda
• Problem solving
• Anticipation
• Flexibility
© Mauro Mancini 14
A possible solution: anticipation

design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
emerges
Project Life cycle
Gupta and Wilemon 1990, Rosenthal 1992

Clark and Wheelwright 1993, Hart 1993
Bacon et al. 1994, Brown and Eisenhardt 1995.
ANTICIPATION Khurana and Rosenthal 1998, Thomke and Fujimoto 1998

Cooper, 1990, Cooper and Kleinschmidt 1994 and 1995
de Brentani 1991, Montoya-Wiess and Calantone 1994
7
Anticipation objective

design changes
trend
TOO EARLY
TOO LATE Phase where an

unexpected event
ANTICIPATION Source: Verganti, 2000
How can we apply the anticipation

principle?
© Mauro Mancini 17
8
Anticipation knowledge generation
1. Early involvement of project stakeholders
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
18
© Mauro Mancini
Project Stakeholders
• During the product life-cycle

• During the NPD process
 Purchases function
 Top Management
 Production
 Marketing
 Suppliers
 R&D
 Resellers
 Designer
 Distributors
 Process engineering
 Shopping centers
 Critical components suppliers
 Customers
 Designers of related products
 Maintenance men
 People working in the recycling
chain
19
© Mauro Mancini
9
Project Team in Killer Loop
Purchasing
Production (planner)
Management of outsourced production
Production
Raw Material Warehouse
Model Maker CORE TEAM
Sales forces manager
PRODUCTION PLANER
AND CONTROLLER
SALES AND MARKETING

DESIGNER MANAGER
R&D AND
PRODUCTION
MANAGER
GRAPHIC
DESIGN
PRODUCT
MANAGER
PRODUCTION MANAGER
ASSISTANT EXTENDED
Start of production TEAM
Quality
Lab
“Partner” suppliers
Source: Seassaro et al., 1998

20
© Mauro Mancini
POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Milestone
Green, Yellow
or Red
21
10
ESEMPIO
Eg: Design Review Program di Seattle

Il Department of Planning and Development di Seattle è responsabile di rivedere
e approvare progetti di costruzione ad uso commerciale ed abitativo nella città di
Seattle. All’interno del Dipartimento è presente un programma di Design Review
per diverse categorie di costruzioni. Il programma prevede la definizione di un
gruppo di revisori responsabili della definizione di particolari requisiti che
specifiche tipologie di costruzioni devono rispettare. Il gruppo è costituito da
persone differenti appartenenti ad unità governative, studi di architettura,
imprese di costruzioni, rappresentanti della popolazione residente,
rappresentanti dei commercianti. Il gruppo ha definito delle linee guida che
devono essere verificate prima di poter approvare la realizzazione di una
infrastruttura. Gli elementi da verificare riguardano la rispondenza alle
caratteristiche del sito (rispetto di altre strutture, accessi direttamente dalla
strada, vicinanza di parcheggi), caratteristiche architetturali (materiali per gli
esterni, struttura architettonica, ecc.), attenzione ai pedoni (spazi e accessi
pedonali, impatto visivo delle strutture di parcheggio collegate, sicurezza dei
passanti, illuminazione, ecc.), ecc.
© Mauro Mancini
2. Experience
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
© Mauro Mancini 23
11
Experience
• Ask who knows
• Knowledge Management System (KMS)

• What problems can be connected to the introduction of lessons
learned at the end of each project?
• What problems can be connected to the use of lessons learned
previously introduced in the KMS?
• Design Rules: transform the tacit knowledge into simple

rules that can be used by anyone (e.g. Design for
Manufacturing and Design for Assembly)
© Mauro Mancini 24
3. Prototyping
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
© Mauro Mancini 25
12
Validative test
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
emerges
Project Life cycle
Explorative test
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
emerges
Project Life cycle
13
Explorative test
 To anticipate the experimentation in the concept generation
 Early prototyping
 Rapid tooling
 Virtual prototyping
- Low costs and time of prototype realization
- Stimuli for creativity
4. Methods
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
 Cash Flow Assessment (NPV)
 Business Plan
 Project Plan
 …
© Mauro Mancini 30
14
Stage-gate design process
• Basic Principle - Cost and time of late design changes are high  avoid late changes and anticipate
problem solving
• Sequential Process: avoid modification of early decisions (late changes are considered as errors)
• Gate: may be passed only if implications of design choices have been fully anticipated
• Problem solving based on experience: transfer of knowledge from previous projects
• Requirements: High Front Loading capabilities - low uncertainty

MARKET EVOLUTION
Concept
freezing
Response time
CONCEPT DESIGN
PRODUCT DESIGN
PROCESS DESIGN
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
© Mauro Mancini 31
POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Why the anticipation principle is

not always applied?
32
32
15
Critics of anticipation
• It is seldom used because

• Loss of time
% Project
completion Project with Project without
anticipation anticipation
100%
Time
• Cost and time for late changes are underestimated

• Early phases are considered less important because
they do not consume money
• It is difficult, it is uncertain
© Mauro Mancini 33
Agenda
• Problem solving
• Anticipation
• Flexibility
© Mauro Mancini 34
16
When anticipation is not suitable

design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
When anticipation is not suitable

design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
Iansiti 1993 and 1995, Iansiti and MacCormack 1997,

von Hippel 1994, von Hippel and Tyre 1995,
Ward et al. 1995, Eisenhardt and Tabrizi 1996, Lester 1997,
FLEXIBILITY Thomke 1997 and 1998, Thomke and Reinersten 1998
17
Flexibility objective

design changes
trend
TOO EARLY
TOO LATE Phase where an

unexpected event
FLEXIBILITY
Flexibility
1. A test based approach
2. High speed in project iterations
© Mauro Mancini 38
18
A test based approach
• Experience is necessary but not sufficient because the uncertainty is
high
• Design is an iterative process
• Testing starts in the first phases
• Experimentation to validate vs Experimentation to explore
© Mauro Mancini 39
A test based approach: Microsoft

Internet Explorer 3.0
Technical Search Input From User Feedback
Specs Architecture Design Architecture Evolution
Feature Design and Coding
Development Integration (“Daily Builds”)

Starts
First System Feature
Integration Freeze
Alpha Public Public
Release Beta 1 Beta 2 Release
Nov 95 Dec Jan 96 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 96
50% of the new features and code for this product were developed after the first Alpha was released
Source: Adattato da Iansiti e MacCormack (1997)
19
Flexible design process
MARKET EVOLUTION
Concept
freezing
CONCEPT DESIGN
Response time
PRODUCT DESIGN
PROCESS DESIGN
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
 Basic Principle - High Uncertainty  Capability of developing new knowledge during the project
 Overlapping between concept design and implementation (creativity and diffuse innovation)
 Iterations as “engine” of the process (fast, frequent, intense, systemic, involving customers)
 Learning during process: problem solving based on testing
 Requirements: High levels of flexibility

Flexibility
1. A test based approach
2. High speed in project iterations

 Teamwork
 Redundancies
 Advanced prototyping and integration technologies
 Use of flexible product technologies and architectures
20
Sony Walkman
 5 generational projects in 10
years (platforms)
 250 derivative projects in 10

years
 Incremental projects (20-30):
functional innovations and
miniaturization
 Topological (220-230):
aesthetical innovations Sony: 20 new models per year
250 models in the ’80s
44
© Mauro Mancini
When to use a flexible approach?

Cost and time
of project
Approach based on
anticipation
Approach based on
flexibility
Uncertainty
level
21
Planned and structural flexibility
Cost and time of
Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Planned
Anticipation Flexibility
flexibility
Structural
flexibility
Phase where an
unexpected event
ANTICIPATION FLEXIBILITY
 Planned flexibility is the capability to (1) early and clearly identify the
specific critical areas of a given project, and (2) early and explicitly
plan reaction measures to manage those critical areas
Q&A on anticipation and Flexibility
© Mauro Mancini 47
22

03 PPMB - Anticipation and Flexibility

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

03 PPMB - Anticipation and Flexibility

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Titolo presentazione

Problem solving cycles

 Current and future projects

Consequences of errors in the problem solving

• Change previous solutions decisions (recycle)

• Face the problems in the last phases

• No optimal solutions for the final output

So we ended up using [physical] mock-ups and, quite honestly, also

Chief Engineer, Boeing 777, Boeing

Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

Uncertainty Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

Uncertainty Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

A possible solution: anticipation

Gupta and Wilemon 1990, Rosenthal 1992

ANTICIPATION Khurana and Rosenthal 1998, Thomke and Fujimoto 1998

Uncertainty Cost and time of

TOO LATE Phase where an

ANTICIPATION Source: Verganti, 2000

How can we apply the anticipation

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

• During the product life-cycle

Model Maker CORE TEAM

Sales forces manager

SALES AND MARKETING

Source: Seassaro et al., 1998

Eg: Design Review Program di Seattle

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

• Knowledge Management System (KMS)

• Design Rules: transform the tacit knowledge into simple

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

Cost and time of

Cost and time of

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

• Problem solving based on experience: transfer of knowledge from previous projects

• Requirements: High Front Loading capabilities - low uncertainty

Why the anticipation principle is

• It is seldom used because

• Cost and time for late changes are underestimated

Uncertainty Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

When anticipation is not suitable

Uncertainty Cost and time of

Iansiti 1993 and 1995, Iansiti and MacCormack 1997,

Uncertainty Cost and time of

TOO LATE Phase where an

2. High speed in project iterations

• Design is an iterative process

• Testing starts in the first phases

• Experimentation to validate vs Experimentation to explore

A test based approach: Microsoft

Technical Search Input From User Feedback

Specs Architecture Design Architecture Evolution

Feature Design and Coding

Development Integration (“Daily Builds”)

Source: Adattato da Iansiti e MacCormack (1997)

 Learning during process: problem solving based on testing

 Requirements: High levels of flexibility

2. High speed in project iterations

 250 derivative projects in 10

When to use a flexible approach?

Q&A on anticipation and Flexibility