VInod Kumar, Scientist ‘E’ (retired), Patna-800020

vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com, dated 5th July 2018

Fig. 1 Anomaly of 850 hPa geo potential height for June 2018

Under LRF for 2018 summer monsoon, 3rd June, smaller high pressure area had been observed along 40ᵒS
and east of 40ᵒW for April-May 2018. So pressure field (anti cyclone at 850 hpa) is disturbed over Atlantic
Ocean and South Indian Ocean. It remained weak in June 2018. A weak high is seen between 060ᵒE and
080ᵒE. All India rainfall for June 2018 was observed as 95%. In 2017, it was 104%. All India rainfall was
found 119% from 1st Jun to 12th June 2018 as stronger high and low combination is seen over south Indian
Ocean, Fig. 2.
 Fig.2. Anomaly of 850 hPa geo potential height from 1st June to 12th June 2018

High is seen from 010ᵒE to 082ᵒE and low 090ᵒE to 130ᵒE along 40ᵒS. Another low is seen over south
Madagascar Island. So adequate moisture feeding was done from south Indian Ocean to north of equator
through South easterly winds between 1st June to 12th June 2018 and 119% rainfall occurred over India
(IMD) during the period. Anomaly of vector wind in Fig.3 shows the condition of south easterly trades
south of equator during the period.
 Fig.3 . Anomally of 850 hPa vector wind from 1st June to 12th June 2018

Moisture generated by two lows is pumped north of equator by high located in the rear. Here south
easterly trades are not seen along the equator from 160ᵒE/ 10ᵒS.
 Fig.4. Anomaly of 850 hPa geopotential height from 13th June to 22nd June 2018

Monsoon did not advance from 13th June for 9 days. The reason is apparent from Fig. 4. From 040ᵒW to
080ᵒE low is seen and high is seen east of 088ᵒE. High- low combination has not been observed during 13th
June-22nd June 2018. High is required in the rear of a low, so that moisture generated by low may be
pumped to monsoon rain area through south easterly trades. The principle is based on research article
entitled “Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon” published in July 2016 in IGU
journal. Monsoon covered entire country on 29th June the reason is clear from Figure 5.
 Fig. 5. Anomaly of 850 hPa wind from 24th Jun to 28th June 2017

High- low combination is seen between 040ᵒE and 090ᵒE between 24th June and 28th June. On certain days
high is stronger. Stronger high is seen on 26th and High- Low-High-low combination on 27th and 28th. ,
Figure 6.
 Fig. 6. Anomaly of 850 hPa geopotential height on 27th June 2018

High-low-High- low combination is seen 010ᵒE-090ᵒE and another strong high. All India rainfall on 28th
June was observed as 160% (IMD).