Strategic Foresight

ST 2018

Jan Berlage
Fundamental Concepts - Change -
• Historical processes consisting of both continuity and
change, perpetual novelty
• SF concerns itself with the significance of Change, Not
what stays the same, but what will most likely change
• It is the factual or expected change to conditions or
relations that makes the study of SF so relevant
• Change process research applies, covering what?,
why?, who?, when? etc. as a difference that occurs over
time
• Process prioritizes activity over product, change over
persistence, novelty over continuity, expression over
determination
• Becoming, flux, creativity, disruption are key terms

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SOCIAL CHANGE

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 Important Social Changes
Forbidden / Allowed Allowed / Forbidden

Democracy Slavery

Mixed schools Torture (Religion etc.)

Women in Workplace Dumping waste

LTGB marriages Diesel cars

Female voting rights

Divorce

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 Theories of Social Change
Van de Ven & Poole argue that an entity changes because of an
“underlying form, logic, program that moves the entity from a
given point of departure toward a subsequent end that is
prefigured in the present state”.

They identified four different processes of change:

1. Life-Cycle, like in nature birth => death
2. Teleological, like progress, modernity, world-rule
3. Dialectical, as in thesis=> antithesis=> synthesis
4. Evolutionary, like survival of the fittest, the fitting

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 Theories of Social Change
• Process as the progression (i.e. the order and sequence)
of events in an organizational entity’s existence over
time
• Development is a “change process, i.e. a progression of
multiple change events that unfold during the duration
of an entity’s existence”
• The term of “event” is important, because change is
seen as “an empirical observation of difference in form,
quality, or state over time in an organizational entity”.
• „We observe the difference that makles a difference“
(G.Bateson)

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Theories of Social Change

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Theories of Social Change

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 Theories of Change
This classification offers four angles to anticipate change :
• Internal development of a single entity, life-cycle and
teleological processes act on the level of the single entity
• Examples?
• The relationship between two entities, evolutionary and
dialectical changes act on the relationship between entities
• Examples?
• A pre-scribed mode of change sees change evolving in a
known format, as in life-ccyle and evolutionary processes
• A constructive mode of change sees change evolving in an
unknown format, as in teleological and dialectical formats
• All four processes are a priori definitions of expected change

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 Change in Science (after T.Kuhn)
Aka Structure of Scientific Revolution

„When a distinguished but elderly scientist says, something is possible, he is

usally right. If he says something is impossible, he is most likely wrong“
(Sir A. Clarke)
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Change in Societal Structures
(After M. Goodman)
 Sources of Social Change
Cultural Iceberg Model After E.T.Hall
External
The external part The internal part

Conscious, subconscious,
we can see we cannot see

Explicitly learned Implicitly learned

Easily changed Difficult to change

Objective Subjective
knowledge knowledge

Internal
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Change as cultural process

Surface Culture: infrastructure,

buildings, language, arts, literature,
religion, music, fashion, gaming,
sports, food, live & work balance
etc.

Deep Culture: Ideas about living,

family, education, justice,
leacdership, friendship, philantropy,
gender, equality, class, kinship,group
norms, time & space etc.

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 Structures of Social Change
• All trends are the reuslt of collective human behavior

Diamond-Shape -Trend-Model after Velgaard

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 O.M. Commission for Future Generations
Driver Indicators
Demographics Sheer numbers, age mix, life span, ratio of young to old,
distribution, acceleration, gender mix
Mobility Mobility across classes, Access to Education, Rural to Cities,
Migration
Society Decline in poverty, income inequality, gender inequality,
labor force dimensions and mix, jobs, youth employment
Geopolitics East meets West, North meets South, Trade order, decline of
wars, Nationality
Sustainability Perfect storm of Food, Water & Energy crisis, 2.5xEarth,
Biodiversity
Health Biotech, Genetics, Infectious dieseases, Malnutrition
Technology IT & Communication, Exponential businesses, Digitalisation,
Big Data

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Early insights

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CHANGE IN ECONOMY

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 Kondratieff-Cycle

• Kondratieff cycles are expressed in GDP figures, but are essentially

statements about dominating / changing infrastructure technologies in
lead economies, i.e. longterm developments
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 Kondratieff-Cycle

Schumpeter asserted in 1939 that “barring very few cases in which

difficulties arise, it is possible to count off, historically as well as
statistically, six Juglars to one Kondratieff and three Kitchins to
one Juglar – not as an average but in every individual case”.
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 Kondratieff-Cycle

Kondratieff listed four main characteristics of changes that lead to new Kondratieff
cycle. These are:
• Potential for further exploitation of old basic innovation is exhausted
• High level of excess financial capital (over physical capital)
• Period of severe recession
• Social / institutional transformation

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 Technology Surge (after C. Perez)
• Very similar to Kondratieff, Perez has identified separate
periods of dominating technologies leading to societal change

Surge Period Profile Key invention

I 1771-1829 Cotton, Canals Cromford Mill (1771)
II 1829-1875 Iron, Steam, Rail Stevenson‘s Rocket
(1829)
III 1875-1908 Steel, Elecctircity, Bessemer Steel Plant (1875)
Chemicals
IV 1908-1971 Oil, Cars, Plastics Model T Assembly (1908)

V 1971-20?? IT, Communication Intel Microprocessor (1971)

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Technology Surge (after C. Perez)

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 Technology Surge (after C. Perez)

1. Installation Phase
Entrepreneurial motivation = Finance motivation, looking for yield, bubble
prosperity
Then: Crisis, Asset Bubble and Crash, Transformation
2. Deployment-Phase focus on production, steady growth, prosperity as
technology rolled out, leading to Golden Age
Each surge is a series of inter-related technologies creating a platform

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 Technology Surge (after C. Perez)
• Surge has time-lag to initial invention, thus pre-installation
phase
• Platform creates new „socio-economic“ paradigm leading to
new forms of organisation in society, a dfifferent „way of life“

Surge Crisis Location Deployment

I Canal Mania 1793 England British Leap
II Railway mania 1847 England Victorian Boom
III Finance Mania 1890 Argentina Belle Epoque
IV Roaring Twenties 1929 USA Post WWII
V Internet Mania 2000/ 2008 USA ????

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 Technology Surge (after C. Perez)
• Technology of
previous surge gets
incorporated in later
surge, resulting in
series of S-curves

• Modernisation from
business happens by
way of adaptation to
new surge, i.e. Rail –
Communication, Retail
– Cars, Retail - IT
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 Technology Surge (after C. Perez)
According to Perez, a few conditions have to be in
place for a new surge to happen:
• Technology exists already
• Platform emerges in lead economy of the era
• Capable of huge cost savings
• Lead technology connects to platform
• Elements of emerging technology creates
networks across space
• It tells new story in social context
• Shift in worldview
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Gardner Technology Cycle

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TEMPORALITY

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 Selected Issues of Temporality
In the course of this session, we look at issues of
temporality as follows:

• A view on History, Present & Future

• Macro-History
• 200-year-Perspective
• Three-Horizons-Framework
• Pace Layers
• Toffler‘s Race

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 Temporality
• All forecasts about the future not only focus on the
content of what will be, but also when, on the likely
timing of any development
• Chronos and Kairos as dimensions of time
• Events shape periods as in Wall came down, Archduke
was assasinated etc.
• We need to pay attention to events
• The pace, synchronicity, sequence of events qualify the
changes we see, as they create patterns etc.

‘Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be

lived forwards.’ (S.Kierkegaard)

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 Temporality

History Present Future

• History is the • Decision time • The future is

learned • Only time of the space of
• Continuities/ action, even if where we
Constants we do not act have
• Rules • Today‘s action responsibility
• „Powerful are • It is here that
predictor of tomorrow‘s consequences
the past“ results play out
• Variables • Novelties

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 Learning from History
Learning means we learn:
• What to do and what not to do
• How to do it and how not do it
• When to do it and when not to do it
• Why to do it and why not to do it
• Brought about by the Elders of the tribe
• But things can change!?!
• What was once allowed is now forbidden
• What was once forbidden is now allowed
„What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history“
(R. Neustadt)

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 Learning from History
• Answers are often only true to a particular context, same
answer in different context is wrong
• „Learned“ always means past problems with past
solutions
• Check for what is known, unclear and presumed in your
analysis
• Given: Knowledge, expertise, experience
• What about: Creativity? Improvement? Unexpected?
• A generation of new problems vs. A generation of old
solutions
• Check for similarities and differences in your analysis
• Are the assumptions still valid?
• Are the rules still valid?

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200-year Perspective (after E. Boulding)

• What was handed down to us?

• The time horizon of 100 years – from the perspective of
today‘s actors – is important as today‘s action shape the
world and lives of our children and grand-children.
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 Exercise
• 100 years back: Team up in pairs of two and
interview each other for 10 Minutes, what has
been handed down to you from the elders of
your family, your community over that period.
Followed by brief class review
• 100 years forward: Team up in different pairs
and interview each other for ten minutes what
you feel you will want to hand down to your
children and your grandchildren. Followed by
brief class discussion.

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 Macro-History
• Definition : „Macro-History is the study of the histories of
social systems in search of patterns, even laws of social
change“ (S.Inayatullah)
• It explores the causes and mechanisms of historical change,
depicting the unchanging fact of continual change
• What changes and why and what stays stable and why? Are
changes cyclical or linear, endogenous or exogenous?
• A multitude of theories exist, in their comprehensiveness
offering a solid basis (the weight of the past) from which to
forecast and gain insight into the Future(s)
• The question is then, which structures are likely to dominate
the next 25 – 50 years?
• „Macro-Historians are to history what Einstein is for the
run-of-the-mill physicist“ (J.Galtung)

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Macro-History

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 Macro-History of Sir John Glubb
• Published 1977 and called „the Fate of Empires
and the Search for Survival“
• His unit of analysis is the empire, of which he
studies 11 different, covering close to 3000 years
• His theory posits a repetitive cycle of six
consecutive stages lasting around 250 years each
• He sees amazing similarity in the ascent of
empires, and attributes reasons to internal factors
• He sees various differing factors contributing to
the downfall, and attributes these to external
factors

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 Macro-History of Sir John Glubb
Stage Age of Feature / Problem Actor
I Pioneers Small warrior nation, poor, Seeks wealth
aggression & courage Practical, Sturdy,
improvisation, no rules Disciplined
II Conquests Learning/ Adaptation of superior Service/ Duty
system of vanquished Glory & Honour
Confident
III Commerce New empire allows for trade Trader / Greed / Money
accumulation of wealth Egocentric
IV Affluence No more military threat Luxury
Neglect of duty Defensive
Surplus cash
V Intellect Pursuit of konwledge / academic Politician
Talk vs. Action Philantropy
VI Decadence Loss of unity, political fractions Corruption
Influx of foreigners, Lax moral Rise of women in society
standards, Frivolity / Games/ Nationalism, Master Race
Celebrities Welfare State 39
 Similar cyclical Macro-Histories
Name I II III IV V
Ibn Conquest Consoli- Blossom Spending Waste
Khaldun dation
G. Vico Barbarism Age of Age of Age of
Gods Heroes Men
O. Pre- Culture Late Civili-
Spengler Culture Culture zation
P. Sorokin Ideational Idealistic Sensate Chaos

A. Growth Decline
Toynbee
P. Sarkar Worker Warrior Intellectual Capitalist
(Shudra) (Ksattriya) (Vipra) (Vaeshya)
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 Macro-History of Jonas Salk

• In the late 1960‘s, Salk saw two epochs and three periods: a stable
period I, a period of change II, a stable period III, all with their
endemic values and worldviews 41
 Macro-History of Jonas Salk
Epoch „A“ Values Epoch „B“ Values
Anti-disease Pro-Health (birth control)
Quantity of children Quality of children
Nationalism Globalism
Individual Community (local / global)
Competition Collaboration
Power Consensus
Extremes (in parts) Balance (whole)
Thesis / Antithesis Synthesis/Dyn.Equilibrium
Expansion (accelerating) Redution (decelerating)
Certainty Uncertainty
Either / Or Both/And
Physical value Meta-Physical value
Centric Non-Centric
Present (short term) Future (long term)
Independence Interdependence
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Pace Layers (after F.Dyson /S.Brand)

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 Pace Layers
Sphere Constituents Parts
Fashion Technology, Consumerism, Advertising
Commerce Production, Trade, Retailing, Finance
Infrastructure Canals, Motorways, Railways, Buildings,
Internet, Telephone/ Mobile Networks
Governance Republic, Nationality, Super-Nationality,
Democracy, Administration, Military
Culture Nation, Language, Arts, Media, Society, Religion
Nature Soil, Water, Plants, Animals, Humans, Space,
Prospecting, Sustainability

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 Changes to pace layers
Pace Layer Before After Now ?

Commerce Bricks Retailing Clicks Retailing

Culture Religion Science

Infrastructure Landed Aristocracy Heavy Industry

Governance Feudal System Modern Armies

Governance Kings & Empires Nations & Republics

Infrastructure Canals Rail

Commerce Local Agrarian Global Trade

Infrastructure Power plants Decentralised Power

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 Pace Layers
Fast Layer Slow Layer

• Learning • Rememering

• Innovation / Proposing • Disposing

• Shock absorbing • Integrates shocks

• Discontinuities • Continuity

• Revolution • Constrain / Constancy

• Gets all the attention • Has all the power

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Pace Layers

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 Toffler‘s Race (after A.Toffler)

Business
Civil society
Family
Work

Government

Education IGO‘s
Governance

Law
Race starts here

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 Toffler‘s Race
• Toffler‘s Race is a depiction of the absolute and relative speed
of different components of a societal system
• The absolute and relative position of the components is a
measure of its role / contribution/ hindrance of the societal
goal
• As such Toffler‘s Race is a good diagnostic tool
• What element could change the speed or position of any one
element?
• If you want to change the speed or position of any one
element, which others do have to be upgraded?
• It is here that policy measures can be designed

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 3-Horizons (after M.Baghai)
Prevalence refers to the extent to which a particular pattern dominates the issue
of concern

This is space/time where policy / strategy conflicts play out

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 3-Horizons
The first horizon:
• represents the way things are done now, “business as usual.”
• Society relies on stable patterns for the everyday life, and most
change is only incremental within these familiar patterns and
serves to reproduce and reinforce them
• The starting point is the recognition that the first horizon
pattern is losing its fit with emerging conditions
• Context changes and solutions to past problems do not fit
anymore
• What is broken?

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 3-Horizons
The third horizon:
• represents the emerging pattern that will be the
long-term successor to the first horizon
• It is appearing and growing on the fringes of the
present system, and developing new ways of
meeting the emerging conditions and possibilities
• Although some dominant pattern will eventually
emerge, many different views of the future will be
present and contested
• This is the realm of prefered futures

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 3-Horizons
The second horizon:
• This is the turbulent domain of transitional activities
and innovations that people are trying out in response
to the changing landscape between the first and third
horizons.
• This second horizon is important, as it provides the
disruptions for more radical 3H systems to emerge.
• Some innovations (H2+) will help extend the H1
systems and facilitate the emergence of H3 systems.
Many innovations will fail, and others (H2-) will be
absorbed back into the H1 systems and contribute only
to marginal or incremental change

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 3-Horizons
Horizon Prevalence Time Aspect
1st Horizon High Focus Now
Elements are obvious, Locked-In Patterns Current
Incremental innovation Prevailing
Exploitation Fading
Managing Mindset Limited
Products, Sevices

2nd Horizon Gaining Power Transition

Reading Trends / Strong signals
Zone of Turbulence / Collision
Exploration
Entrepreneurial Mindset
Production
3rd Horizon Low Future
Weak Signals Later
Disruptio,n Transformation Emerging
Pockets of the Future
Visionary Mindset
Sustainability
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3-Horizons Example

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Memes in 3-Horizon

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SYSTEMS & CONTEXT
THINKING

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 Recall
Societal Holon, Threats & Opportunities, Stakeholder

Industry
Holon,
Structure,
Conduct,
Performance,
Competition,
Stakeholder

Company Holon, Strength & Weakness, Products, Markets, Production, Stakeholder

• Everything is a system of parts, everything is part of a system

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3 Laws of Holons (after )
J.Velikowsky

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 3 Laws of Holons
Upper Level Diagnostic Lower Level Diagnostic

• What is the upper level‘s • What are the constituent

purpose ? parts?
• What does the upper level • How does it perform?
consist of?
• What parts are involved? • How does it cooperate?

• How does it perform? • How are the relationships?

• Can you contribute, improve • Can you contribute, improve

matters? matters?
• What can be integrated?
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 Systems Thinking
• Definition: A system is a whole that contains two
or more parts, each of which can affect the
properties or behaviour of the whole
• No part has an independent effect on the whole,
as any effect is always also affecting the other
parts of the whole, all parts are interconnected
• Between any two parts there is a direct
relationship as well as an indirect one
• A system is a whole that cannot be divided into its
independent parts without loosing the
characteristics of the whole
• Systems are designed to achieve outcomes
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 Systems Thinking
• The properties and behaviour of the whole results from
the way the parts interact in congruence, not how the
parts act independently
• The properties of the whole count, which none of the
parts have
• Important amongst the properties of the whole are the
essential properties, those that make the difference
• If you improve the properties of one or more parts, the
properties of the whole may not improve or even get
worse
• If the system performs at ist best, may be only a few or
none of its parts are
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 Systems Thinking
• Even if the individual part is best in class, it may not improve
the properties of the whole, if it does not fit into the
relationships with other parts so well
• What counts are not the parts in isolation but their
relationships, how well do they play together, interdependently
• Relationships work in the form of feedback and feedforward
loops
• Dimension of temporality amongst the parts and the whole is
called entrainment
• Problems are always an issue of the whole and not only of the
parts
• The modernistic, scientific dogma looks at improving parts
only,
• SF looks at change within the system
• SF even looks to changes of systems!
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 Systems Thinking
• Amongst other, systems are divided into Closed / Open
Systems
• Open, in contrast to closed, systems interact with its
environment / context
• Complex vs. Complicated
• Closed systems are complicated, open systems are
complex
• Every open system must adapt by Adaptation /
Improvisation as contextual conditions change
• Systems tend to find their equilibrium over time, but
what if……….
• There are many ways to the goal: equifinality

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 Systems Thinking
• A transition is a transformation process in which a society changes
in a fundamental way over a generation or more
• It is a set of connected changes at different speeds, which reinforce
each other but take place contemporaneously in several different
areas, such as technology, economy, behaviour, culture etc.
• It is a gradual, continuous process of changing the structural
character of a system (here: society)
• There is multiple causality and co-evolution
• It implies a fundamental change of assumptions and the introduction
of new practices and rules
• It comprises the stages of pre-development, take-off, acceleration
and stabilization
• It consists of slow-movinmg elements (stocks) and fast-moving
elements (flows), even one-off events
• Flows reveal the relationship between stocks

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Systems Thinking

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 Systems Thinking
• A transition exhibits a transformation from
slow dynamics to quick development and
instability, reverting to relative stability
• A transition has three dimensions, the speed of
change, the size of change and the time period
of change
• A transition is the long-term development in
stocks and short-term development in flows

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 Context Thinking
• The environment (context) are all factors that are outside the
organisation being analyzed, but have a potential impact
• What demand does the environment put on the organisation?
• What opportunitiess does the context offer?
• How does the context put constraints on the organization /
action?
• S = Social
• T = Technological
• E = Economical
• E= Environmental
• P = Political
•
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Context Thinking
(after Curry & Tibbs)

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Context thinking

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Context Thinking

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Summary

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FORCE FIELDS

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Force Fields

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 Force Fields
• Developed by Kurt Lewin in 60‘s, building on the dialectical
framework and its emphasis of opposing forces
• He saw behaviour as a dynamic balance of forces working in
opposite directions, the relationship between driving and
restraining forces is of importance
• Forces are divided into enabling or supporting an issue /
counteracting or restraining an issue
• An imbalance occurs either
- through a change in magnitude or
- a change in direction, or
- both, in any of these forces or
- entry of a new force
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 Force Fields
• The tricky bit is to qualify these values. Who attributes them?
What is their role, their interest in this game? How do the
values compare?
• Technically speaking, this implies that the forces act on each
other directly and that it matters only which force is bigger
• In real life however, the forces act on and at different places
and therefore shape the Gestalt of an issue rather than defining
one single point
• Force Fields are is essence Social Systems, i.e. man-made and
can be changed by man
• „Kicking the dog syndrome“ can signal 2nd degree Force
Fields

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 Force Fields
• Initially numbers-based, later quality-based
• Static: Absolute values / Dynamic : Relative values
• Dynamism implying a timeline and process of change: Think
of what changes the size, weight, power of a particular force
• Or can counter-weights / counter-forces be identified that act
on the force in question?
• What is the prefered value and direction of a force?
• Now intended change does not occur unless the right
combination of forces running in the right direction emerges
• A different configuration may lead to undesired change

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Force Fields
• Over time, however, changes in
perceptions can lead to changes
in the value and direction of
vectors
• The variation in the perecption
of these factors is a key
ingredient in directing change
• One‘s enabler is another man‘s
constrainer
• There are always two polarities
to each force
• Explore them well

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 Force Fields
Some pairings of antagonistic “Forces”
David vs. Goliath…
One vs. Many
Majority vs. Minority
(Alt)Left vs. (Alt)Right
West vs. East / North vs. South
developed vs. undeveloped world /emerging markets
Those above vs. below (1% vs. 99% as in Occupy Wall Street)

Men vs. Women

Black vs. White
Christians vs. Muslims vs. Hindus vs. Buddhists

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 Critical context issues (after O.Scharmer)
Issue Description of Disconnect
1 Infinite growth imperative and finite resources of the earth
2 Between Haves and Have Nots
3 Between financial and real economy
4 Between technology and real societal needs
5 Between institutional leadership and the people
6 Between GDP and actual well-being
7 Between governance and the voiceless
8 Between ownership rules and best societal use of property

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Early insights

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 Force Fields
The boundary can be:
• Line separating the two forces, as in borders, divides, gaps,
chasms, seams coming apart. Here we find the ugly face of
Force Fields such as isolation, fists or weaponry, “foreign
languages”, demagogy, exclusion, inequality, trade barriers.
The view is essentially one of my interest over yours.
• Line connecting the two forces as in seams, bridges or as in
kissing. We find contact, language (“in the beginning there
was logos”) relationship, communication, inclusion, equality,
information, peace treaties..
• Institutions that govern our life to make it acceptable:
Markets to exchange goods or services and their corresponding
prices, law, rules / regulations, norms, manners/ behaviours,
parliaments
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 Force Fields (after I.Ajimal)
„Snow starts melting at the fringes“ (A.Grove)

Direction expressed by an arrow

Force, expressed as a value

Who exerts force? Who is exposed to force? Who can pass

forces on? Who is hindered to pass forces on?
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STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS

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Stakeholder Analysis (after C.Freeman)

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 Stakeholder Analysis
Stakeholder Stakeholder Stakeholder
Definition Definition Definition
by Freeman by SRI by Rhenman
A stakeholder is any Those groups Individuals or groups
group or individual without whose which depend on the
who can affect, or is support the institution for the
affected by, the organisation would realization of their
achievement of the cease to exist personal goals and
institution‘s purpose on whom the
or objective institution is
dependent

We know who the stakeholders are, but: „What is at stake?“

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 Stakeholder Analysis
• The concept of congruence asks whether the interests, needs,
demands, goals of one set of stakeholders is congruent with
those of another set of stakeholders
• the higher the degree of congruence, the better the system
performs
• What looks like solid blocks of interest is very often a bag of
multiple, diverse and at times contravening interests
• Stakeholders, i.e. employees, can have multiple roles, such as
parent, consumer etc.
• Relative Importance to success
• Relative Strength
• Focus on One / Few vs. All, Shareholder Value as an example

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 Stakeholder Identification & Salience
Definition of key terminology
Stakeholder : Group / individual who can affect, or is affected
by, the achievement of the institution‘s objectives
Power : Relationship in which one actor A can get another actor
B to do something they would otherwise not have done, coercive

Legitimacy : Generalized perception that actions of a stakeholder

are desirable, appropriate within some socially constructed
system of beliefs, norms, values, claims, stakes
Urgency : Degree to which stakeholder claims call for immediate
attention
Salience ; Degree to which decion-makers give priority to
competing stakeholder claims
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Stakeholder Analysis (after Mitchell et al.)

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 Stakeholder Analysis
Stakeholder analysis can serve multiple purposes:
1. Analyze the power, influence and objectives of any
stakeholder against the objective of the institution
2. Analyze the power, influence and objectives against
each other and gauge the balance of power between
actors
3. See who influences whom
4. Study their convergences (coalition) and divergences
when faced with a certain number of associated stakes
and objectives
5. Provide scanning for their likely future direction and
potential future impact
6. What is the role of the management?
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QUICK RECAP

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 Recap
We looked at Change
Content • 4 societal change models undepinning most change processes
• 1 cycle of thought revolution to demonstrate that scientific
thinking itself changes dramatically in the course of a generation
• 3 economic cycle models explain fundamental change patterns
in business context

Learning • See wide, beyond the ordinary short-term, societal changes are
slow moving but deep-reaching
• Technology circles are fast moving, societal changes reach
deeper & are slower
• There are more constants than varaibles and more variables than
novelties, still….

Transfer • Where are we at this point in time?

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 Recap
We looked at Temporality
Content • 5 ways to look at the implications of temporality in our thinking,
of which
• Example of macro-history model, plus a peek to the future
• One concept about the implications and experience of temporality
in our own personal life time
• One to structure time horizons
• One to look at the powerful implica-tions of changes between
slow and fast moving elements in society
• One to look at the implications of entrainment of elements in
society
Learning • See long, watch the relative pace of elements in the system,
friction ensues
Transfer • Link short-term experience to larger pattern, when and where do
slow-moving parts start to change?

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 Recap
We looked at Systems
Content • General description of systems
• Complicated vs. Complex systems
• Open vs. Closed systems
• Tame vs. Wicked problem definition

Learning • Consider the basis of your decision making process to be a

system
• What if system outcomes are wrong?
• A long-term perspective (one generation) reveals change in
society as to speed & size of impact
• Pay attention to entrainment
• Relationships are key in systems

Transfer • Take note of the relevant system

• Does system produce the correct outcome?

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 Recap
We looked at Force Field Analysis

Content • Concept of Force Field Analysis

• Examples
• Static vs. Dynamic Force Fields
• Reversal of forces
• Role of boundary

Learning • Look at what forces are in play

• What size and direction?

Transfer • Can you spo / imaginet a reversal in the direction or size of

forces relevant to you?
• What directions / size need forces to have to be helpful?
• Watch the boundaries: any chnages?

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 Recap
We looked at Stakeholders
Content • Defintion
• Stakeholder Analysis as a variation of Force Field Analysis
• 3 perspectives for analyzing
Learning • Stakeholders are decision-makers
• Identification of stakeholders
• Stakeholder Analysis helps to diagnose your system
• Dynamic analysis points to trends/ drivers in change in
environment and therefore assist SF
• What is their „claim“?
• What is at „stake“?
• What is the distribution of power in the system? Why? Any
dynamic?

Transfer • Who are your stakeholders?

• What is their motivation and why?
• Any pain?

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