13.

M O D E L I N G BASIN-SCALE HYDROLOGY IN SUPPORT OF

PHYSICAL CLIMATE AND GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL
STUDIES: AN EXAMPLE USING THE ZAMBEZI RIVER

CHARLES J. VOROSMARTY and BERRIEN MOORE III

Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, Science and Engineering Research Building, University
of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, U.S.A.

Abstract. Human activity is an important agent defining the contemporary hydrologic cycle. We have
documented the potential impacts of impoundment, land use change and climate change on the Zambezi
River system in southern Africa and found that they can be substantial. A full analysis requires
construction and parameterization of a simulation for the entire catchment. This paper develops a strategy
for implementing catchment-scale models of the major hydrologic processes operating within the basin.
A coherent data set for calibrating the models has also been assembled. The algorithms consist of a Water
Balance (WBM) and a Water Transport(WTM) operating at 1/2~ spatial scale and at monthly timesteps.
These models transform complex patterns of regional climatology into estimates of soil water, evapotran-
spiration, runoff, and discharge through rivers of various size. The models are dependent on the
characteristics of the terrestrial surface, principally soil texture and land cover. A simulated river network
is also required. Additional tabular data sets are essential for model testing and calibration. These include
subcatchment areas; observed river discharge at selected points; flooding, storage and loss characteristics
of major wetlands; floodwave translation; and, volume, surface area, withdrawal and evaporative losses
from impoundments. An important design consideration for the numerous impoundments in the Zambezi
requires an understanding of the seasonal variation in discharge, in particular how it might respond to
climate and land use change. The research strategy offered here lays a framework for addressing such
issues. Although the primary focus of this work is hydrologic, we discuss how the model can be extended
to consider constituent transport and biogeochemical cycling issues at the continental scale.

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n

The r a t i o n a l e for d e v e l o p i n g regional-scale m o d e l s o f terrestrial h y d r o l o g y has been

elucidated m a n y times (e.g. M o o r e et al., 1989; C o m m i t t e e on G l o b a l C h a n g e ,
1988; Becker a n d Nemec, 1987; Eagleson, 1986; D o o g e , 1986). T h e m o t i v a t i o n s
include defining the g e o g r a p h i c d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l a n d - a t m o s p h e r e m o i s t u r e exchange,
fostering the effective m a n a g e m e n t o f w a t e r resources, a n d q u a n t i f y i n g the i m p a c t
o f l a n d use a n d g l o b a l climate c h a n g e on the w a t e r cycle.
W a t e r also plays a p i v o t a l role in the b i o g e o c h e m i s t r y o f the terrestrial biosphere.
W a t e r in the r o o t i n g zone is o f o b v i o u s i m p o r t a n c e to p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n and,
hence, CO2 gas exchange a n d n u t r i e n t u p t a k e b y plants. It also c o n t r o l s the activity
o f d e c o m p o s i n g o r g a n i s m s that t u r n over c a r b o n a n d nutrients. W a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y
a n d its timing influence the river, w e t l a n d a n d c o a s t a l ecosystems into which r u n o f f
m u s t pass. Fluvial n e t w o r k s t r a n s p o r t f r o m the l a n d s c a p e the p r o d u c t s o f erosion,
chemical w e a t h e r i n g a n d biotic n u t r i e n t cycling a n d m a y t h e r e b y regulate the
l o n g - t e r m p r o d u c t i v i t y o f the w o r l d ' s oceans. F u r t h e r m o r e , soil w a t e r is likely to be
the single m o s t i m p o r t a n t c o n t r o l on the p r o d u c t i o n o f trace gases such as n i t r o u s
oxide a n d m e t h a n e .
T h e d r a i n a g e basin is a useful o r g a n i z i n g c o n c e p t with which to view the c o u p l i n g
o f the E a r t h ' s w a t e r a n d chemical cycles. N u m e r o u s w a t e r s h e d studies have a d d e d

Surveys in Geophysics 12: 271-311, 1991.

9 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
272 c . J . VOROSMARTY AND BERRIEN MOORE III

significantly to our understanding of how landscapes process and transport con-

stituents, and how terrestrial ecosystems are affected by pollution (Swank and
Crossley, 1988; Correll, 1986; Likens et al., 1977). The inherent advantages of such
studies should be realized as well at the global scale. Recent estimates of global
riverine flux for various constituents (e.g. Milliman and Meade, 1983; Meybeck,
1982, 1976; van Bennekom and Salomons, 1981) are essentially compilations of
existing basin-scale data sets. Although these studies represent impressive bench-
marks, they are limited in their ability to predict future change. A suitably-scaled
drainage basin model, linking terrestrial water balance and ecosystem nutrient
cycling to fluvial transport and aquatic processing, would be a valuable scientific tool
with which to address issues of global change.
A simple model for nitrogen transport in the Mississippi River drainage sys-
tem was offered by Gildea et al. (1986) and V/Sr6smarty et al. (1986). Estimates
of water and nutrient flux were organized at the level of subregional drainage basin.
Although the model was able to clearly show increases in nutrient flux due to
human activity, its rather coarse spatial scale and predetermined hydrology limited
its predictive capability. Significant enhancements are possible using finer spatial
scales and coupled atmosphere/land surface hydrology simulations. To this end, the
recent proposal for tandem field, modeling and remote sensing experiments for the
Mississippi River as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
(GEWEX) - a joint World Meteorological Organization and International Associ-
ation of Hydrological Sciences initiative - will provide critical water cycle parame-
ters for regional biogeochemical studies (Chahine, 1989).
Recent modeling experiments by V6r6smarty et al. (1989) demonstrated the
potential for employing grid-based hydrologic simulations in the Amazon drainage
basin. These models were developed as part of a larger research effort to study
continental-scale biogeochemistry, including terrestrial nutrient cycling, CO2 and
trace gas exchange, and transport of constituents through river networks. The
hydrologic research sets a framework in which to couple physical climate models to
the global biogeochemical subsystem. A key facet of the overall study is to quantify
the impact of humans by contrasting pre-disturbance and contemporary conditions.
In anticipation of eventual global coverage, which necessarily must consider data-
poor regions, the water and nutrient cycling models are simple in structure and
modest in their input requirements
Much of the globe's hydrology is now modified, and a pressing challenge is to
develop a quantitative understanding of how humans have disturbed the water
cycle. In particular, the consideration of engineering works, shifting landscape
patterns and climate change represents a significant step forward. A key research
question surrounds the transportability of regional-scale hydrologic models like
those developed for the relatively undisturbed Amazon.
This paper examines the feasibility of applying a linked water balance and fluvial
transport model, developed initially for the Amazon, to another large tropical river,
the Zambezi in southern Africa. The Zambezi River has numerous attributes which