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SMART GRIDS: STATUS QUO

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
IN GERMANY
APRIL 2016

Heiko Staubitz
Germany Trade & Invest
Development of Renewable Energy Systems
Feed-in-Tariff Causes Dynamic Growth

Total capacity of renewables


(End 2014)
2000)
2005)
2010)
~~~1.500.000
221,000
750,000
30,000 installations
installations
installations

Wind energy

PV

Biomass

The circle diameter is proportional


to the electrical capacity

Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 2
Electricity Generation
Renewable Shares Increase from 5% to 32.6%

Energy Source Share in Electricity Generation1 Energy Source Share in Electricity Generation1
(1998) (2015)

Renewable
Energies Photo-
Oil, Pumped Wind
5% voltaic
Storage + Onshore
Wind 5,9%
Others 12,2%
4,6% Nuclear (Offshore) Nuclear
Power 1,3% Power
Hydro
Natural Gas 29,1% 14,1%
power
9,1% 3,0%
Biomass &
waste
7,7%
Oil and Lignite
others 23,8%
4,8%
Hard Coal Natural Gas
27,5% 9,1%
Lignite
25,0% Hard Coal
Total: 557.2 TWh Total: 651,8 TWh 18,1%
Export: 0.6 TWh Export: 51,8 TWh

Source: AG Energiebilanzen August 2015; 1) Gross Electricity Generation


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 3
Utilization of German Power Plants
Off-shore Wind Recognized for High Potential

Energy Source Share of Installed Capacity Full Load Hours of Power Plant Types
(2015) (2013)

7.630
Photo- Nuclear 7.030
voltaic Power
6.450
19,5% 5,4%
Wind Power Lignite
(Offshore) 13,6% 4.380
1,4%
3.560

Offshore Wind
Wind Power Hard Coal 2.480
(Onshore) 10,5% 1.610
19,3% 1.150
1.000 910

Hydro- Natural Gas

Oil
Lignite

Hydropower

Wind Power
Biomass

Hard Coal

Natural Gas

Pumped Storage

Photovoltaics
power Nuclear Power
Oil, Pump 14,3%
2,8% Biomass and
Hydro and
Waste Others
3,9% 9,3%
Total: 200 GW Annual peak load: app. 80 GW
Wind & PV: 80 GW Year: 8,760 h

Source: Bundesnetzagentur 2016, *BDEW 2014


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 4
German Energy Concept (2010)
Main Objectives

Climate protection measures 2020 2050


GHG cuts vs. 1990 -40% -80%
Renewable share of… 2020 (2025) 2050
Total energy consumption 18% 60%
Electricity consumption 35% (40-45%) 80%
Heat generation 14% 60%
Energy efficiency measures
Increase in energy productiveness 2.1% p.a.
Reduction of energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008)
Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008)
Renovation rate 2% p.a.
Reduction of energy consumption for -10% (2020 vs. 2005)
transportation -40% (2050 vs. 2005)

© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 5


Goals of Renewable Consumption
Developments on Target

Current Staus

Current Staus (EU 2009/28//EG**)

Goals German Energy Concept 2011

Corridor pursuant to coalition agreement 2013

Source: BDEW 2016


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 6
Industrial Electricity Prices
Electricity Tariffs in Germany are in the Upper Range

Average annual industrial electricity prices with a Average annual industrial electricity prices with a
consumption of 500-2,000 MWh¹ consumption of 20,000-70,000 MWh¹

Italy 16,08 UK 13,36


Germany 15,09 Italy 12,49
UK 14,89 Germany 11,11
Ireland 14,17 Ireland 10,05
EU-28 12,06 Slovak Rep. 9,35
Spain 11,73 EU-28 9,33
Slovak Rep. 11,26 Hungary 8,46
Belgium 11,00 Spain 8,31
Austria 10,39 Denmark 7,77
France 10,07 France 7,71
Netherlands 9,14 Belgium 7,68
Denmark 8,99 Austria 7,64
Poland 8,82 Czech Rep. 7,41
Hungary 8,67 Poland 7,06
Romania 8,30 Netherlands 7,03
Czech Rep. Romania 6,53
7,72
Bulgaria Bulgaria 5,50
6,92
Sweden 4,80
Sweden 6,22

Note: ¹2015 (first half), including taxes except VAT. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt Note: ¹2015 (first half), including taxes except VAT. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt
hour. Source: Eurostat 2016 hour. Source: Eurostat 2016
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 7
Components of the Electricity Price
Cost of Generation, Transport and Distribution are below 1998

Development and Composition of Electricity Prices for Industrial Customers in Germany


(1998-2016, in EUR ct/kWh)1

18

16
1,537 1,54
14 1,537 1,537
1,537 1,537
1,23
12 1,537
1,16
1,23 1,23 1,23 3,53 3,59 5,28
10 0,15 6,24 6,17 6,35
0,26 0,88 1,02 1,31 2,05
0,08 1,23
0,09 1,23
8 0,69
1,23 1,23 0,51
0,36 0,35 0,42
6 0,31
0,2 0,24
10,7
9,15 8,51 9,26 9 8,7 8,63 8,83 8,98
4 7,65 7,85 7,19
7,02 6,95 6,89
5,46 5,62 5,99 6,17
2

0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Generation, Transport Distribution Concession levy Renewable Energy Act contribution


CHP-Allocation Electricity tax abLa-contribution
§19 allocation Offshore liability apportionment
Source: BDEW, 2016
1) electricity consumption from 100 kW/1600H up to 4000 kW/5000h
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 8
Electricity Prices for Private Households
Electricity Prices in Germany above EU Average

Avg. annual electricity prices for private house- Avg. annual electricity prices for private house-
holds with a consumption of 1,000-2,500 kWh¹ holds with a consumption of 2,500-5,000 kWh¹

Denmark 33,37 Denmark 30,68


Germany 32,12 Germany 29,51
Ireland 30,98 Italy 24,50
Spain 27,15 Ireland 24,26
Norway 24,90 Spain 23,09
Austria 24,19 Belgium 21,26
UK 23,52 UK 21,25
Belgium 22,49 EU-28 20,78
EU-28 22,43 Austria 20,09
Italy 20,82 Netherlands 19,57
Sweden 20,67 Sweden 18,51
Czech Rep. 19,67 France 16,24
France 18,25 Norway 16,14
Slovak Rep. 17,42 Slovak Rep. 15,06
Poland 15,35 Poland 14,44
Romania 13,30 Romania 13,03
Netherlands 12,12 Czech Rep. 12,73
Hungary 11,67 Hungary 11,27
Bulgaria 9,54 Bulgaria 9,42
Note: ¹2015 (first half), including all taxes. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt hour. Note: ¹2015 (first half), including all taxes. All data in EUR-cent per kilowatt hour.
Source: Eurostat 2016 Source: Eurostat 2016
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 9
Green Paper, White Paper, Electricity Market Act
… moving forward to a modern electricity market design in Germany

1. GREEN PAPER – October 2014


2. WHITE PAPER – July 2015
3. ELECTRICITY MARKET ACT – Spring 2016

Source: BMWi Sophie Müller-Godeffroy / IIIB1 General Issues of Electricity and Security of Supply
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 10
Electricity Market Act
Fundamental Decision for Electricity Market 2.0

• Guarantee free price formation


• Strengthen obligations to uphold balancing
group commitments
• Open up balancing markets for new providers
• Capacity reserve
• From 2021 up to 2 GW new and flexible
power plants for South Germany

Source: BMWi Sophie Müller-Godeffroy / IIIB1 General Issues of Electricity and Security of Supply
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 11
Smart Meter Roll-Out
Smart Metering Systems to be rolled out in Germany from 2017

New draft law “Digitizing the Energy Transition”:

• Smart Metering System (SMS) = Electronic Meter


+ Secure Communication Gateway

• Electronic meters new standard in 16-year meter


replacement cycle for all users

• Mandatory roll-out of full SMS starts 2017 with


large users > 10,000 kWh/a and producers with
installed capacity between 7 and 100 kW

• From 2020 possibility to require other consumers


and producers to install SMS

• Price ceilings apply when equipment is installed

Source: Landis + Gyr


• SMS can always be fitted on a voluntary basis
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 12
Smart Meter Roll-Out
Systems to be required first for Energy Producers and large Energy Users

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

By 2017: Consumers >100,000 kWh: no price cap

By 2017: Consumers 50,000-100,000 kWh and producers 50-100 kW: 200€/a

By 2017: Consumers 20,000-50,000 kWh and producers 30-50 kW: 170€/a

By 2017: Consumers 10,000-20,000 kWh and producers 15-30 kW: 130€/a

By 2017: Producers 7-15 kW: 100€/a

By 2020: Consumers 6,000-10,000 kWh: 100€/a

By 2020: Producers > 100 kW: no price cap

Option: Measuring By 2020: Consumers 4,000-6,000 kWh: 60€/a


point operators can
extend roll-out, if it By 2020: Consumers 3,000-4,000 kWh: 40€/a
stays below price cap. By 2020: Consumers 2,000-3,000 kWh: 30€/a

By 2020: Consumers < 2,000 kWh: 23€/a

Source: BMWI 2016


Electricity SMS market potential: 50 million meters!
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 13
Smart Meter Roll-Out
By 2032, >50 million Meters will be Electronic – and many ‘smart‘

Metering points in Germany (in millions):

CHP plants (>7 kW) 0,01


Producers
Renewable energy plants (>7 kW) 1

Mandatory SMS
>100,000 kWh/a 0,3 from 2017 /2020
10,000-100,000 kWh/a 2

Consumers 6,000-10,000 kWh/a 2,4


4,000-6,000 kWh/a 5,2
3,000-4,000 kWh/a 33 Optional SMS
from 2020
< 3,000 kWh/a 7

0 2 4 6 8
Required installation of electronic meters everywhere lays groundwork for SMS.
Full SMS mandatory where economic and business case is strongest.
Source: BMWI 2016; Ernst & Young, 2013
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 14
Distribution grid Operators in Germany
20 Companies with a Market Share of 60%

No Operator Majority share- Number of offtake Number of offtake Locations of the


. holder points at points at
low-voltage medium-voltage headquarters of the
1 Westnetz GmbH RWE 4.700.000 315.000 distribution grid
2 Netze BW EnBW 2.715.000 149.000 operators
3 Bayernwerk AG E.ON 2.345.000 90.000
4 Stromnetz Berlin GmbH Vattenfall 2.280.000 18.000
5 envia Mitteldeutsche Energie AG RWE 1.761.000 39.000
6 E.ON E.DIS AG E.ON 1.347.000 20.000
7 E.ON Avacon AG E.ON 1.139.000 18.600
8 Stromnetz Hamburg GmbH Vattenfall 1.122.000 2.000
9 EWE Netz GmbH 1.113.000 21.000
10 Syna GmbH RWE 965.000 4.000
11 Stadtwerke München GmbH (SWM) 940.000 6.000
12 E.ON Mitte AG E.ON 768.000 5.000
13 E.ON Hanse AG E.ON 763.000 3.300
14 Thüringer Energienetze GmbH (TEN) 626.000 18.000
15 LEW Verteilnetz GmbH (LVN) RWE 545.000 41.000
16 VNB Rhein-Main Neckar GmbH & Co. KG 446.000 5.000
17 Stadtwerke Düsseldorf Netz GmbH EnBW 434.000 5.000
18 ENSO Netz GmbH 410.000 11.000
19 NRM Netzdienste Rhein-Main GmbH Mainova 403.000 16.000

© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 15


Distribution Grid
Innovative Concepts and Smart Technologies leads to Significant Cost
Reduction

Conventional grid development by 2032 Innovative concepts by 2032

Expansions of 130,000km up to 280,000km 60% cost reduction in grid expansion


Investment needs for the grid extension and 40% through 3% curtailment of renewable
conversion: €23bn – €49bn plants and
Increase of grid fee by 10-20% further 20% with smart technologies
Regional grid fee differences possible
70% must be invested in the first 10 years 20% cost reduction with ICT and “rOnt”
Levelizing of regional grid fee differences

Source: BMWi Distribution Grid Study 2014


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 16
The Smart Grid Market Overview
New power structure in 2022 will lead to bottle necks in Germany

Power balance 2012 Power balance 2022

Source: Netzentwicklungsplan 2012


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 17
Expansion of the electricity grid in Germany
An enormous expansion of the high voltage grid system is required
by 2024

Grid Expansion Distance in Km.


AC-New Construction 648
DC-Corridor 1,750
DC-New Interconnections 350
AC- Grid Reinforcement 2,750
AC-DC Convertor 300
Total 5,798

Expansion and Reinforcement


Transmission grid
Baseline scenario with overhead lines requires: 22 bn €

Additionally the connection of the offshore-grid


is estimated to 10-12 bn €

Source: BNetzA 2015


B2024 Szenario Fossil: 84.9 GW Renewable 138.6 GW / Offshore transmission capacity 2x900 plus 1x500MW
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 18
European Grid Extension projects
Approx. 48,000 km transmission lines needed in the coming decade

• €150 billion grid expansion proposed by Pan-European Significance investments


the TYNDP 2014 – Long-term horizon (>=2019)

• enhanced market integration will reduce


bulk power prices by 2 to 5 €/MWh

TYNDP 2014 investment portfolio –


breakdown per technology

Source: TYNDP-2014 Ten-year network development plan ENTSO-E


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 19
AmpaCity Flagship Project in Essen
World longest superconductor system replace inner city high voltage
cable

Situation 2010

Goal 2020

Source: RWE AG
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 20
AmpaCity Flagship Project in Essen
Economic comparison of different network configurations

Source: RWE AG
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 21
AmpaCity Flagship Project in Essen
Pre-prototype tests completed in 2012 and testing phase 2014 – 2016

Source: RWE AG
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 22
PV-Batteries in Germany: >100% growth in 2015
Around 35% of newly installed PV-systems (<30 kWp) in Q4 2015 also
bought a battery using the KfW support program.

Number of newly installed PV systems (<30 kWp) and number of KfW supported battery systems**

35000 40%

30000 35%

30%
25000
25%
20000
20%
15000
15%
10000
10%
5000 5%

0 0%
Q2 13* Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

Number of PV systems (<30 kWp) Number of KfW-supported PV-Batteries (excluding retrofit)


Share of new PV systems installed with batteries (right ordinate)

Note:
* May and June 2013 figures only; **excluding retrofit battery systems (2013-2014: 10% retrofit; 2015: 17% retrofit); According to KfW Speichermonitoring, KfW supported
battery systems make up about 55% of the total PV battery systems installed.
Source: Federal Network Agency 2016; KfW 2016, EuPD 2015, PV-Magazine 2015
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 23
The German PV-storage system market outlook
By 2020, PV-battery systems could reach an annual installation volume
of around 50,000 systems in Germany

Number of newly installed PV-battery systems (<30 kWp)

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Number of new battery systems with new PV installations Number of new battery systems with retrofit installations

Note: assumptions: new annual PV installations 2015-2020: 1.4 GWp


Source: year 2015: Federal Network Agency, KfW Speichermonitoring, 2016; years 2016-2020: own calculation and estimate, 2016
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 24
Organization of the German Electricity Market
Control power market attractive option for flexibility providers

Trading
Wholesale Electricity Market

OTC EEX Control Power

Primary Secondary
Tertiary
Futures Market Spot Market Futures Market Spot Market Control Control
Control Power
Power Power

Forwards/
Options/
Futures/
Structured
Options
Products
physically physically
Mainly financial
Physical and
fulfillment
financial
fulfillment

© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 25


The German Control Power Market
Interaction between primary, secondary and tertiary control power

Outage in a power Primary control Secondary control Tertiary control


plant in Saxony-Anhalt power power power

© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 26


The German Primary Control Power Market
PCR price development and break even calculation for battery systems

Capacity price per week (€/MW)


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mean specific capacity
10000 price payment per year:
Weekly average Weekly average Weekly average Weekly average
3,536 €/MW 3,659 €/MW
≈ 165,000 €/MW
2,757 €/MW 2,987€/MW
9000 (52 x 3,170€/MW)
19,995
8000
• Interest rate: 5 %
7000 • Operation costs: 2 %/a
from CAPEX
6000
• Amortization period:
5000 10 a
• Energy/Power ratio: 1:1
4000
 max. CAPEX:
3000
≈ 1,100 €/kWh
2000

1000

0
02.01.2012 02.01.2013 02.01.2014 02.01.2015 02.01.2016

Source: regelleistung.net
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 27
Large-scale batteries balancing the grid
Installed battery capacity in Germany for primary control power

Total large-scale battery capacity until A: Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, [Hybrid: Li-Ion, NAS], 1 MW
B: Völklingen-Fenne, Steag [Li-Ion], 1 MW
2016/2017: 141 MW
C: Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall [LiFePo], 2 MW
D: Pellworm, EON & Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG
140
[Hybrid: Li-ion, Redox-flow], 0.76 MW
E: Schwerin, Younicos & Wemag [Li-Ion], 5 MW
120 F: Braderup, Bosch [Hybrid: Li-ion, Redox-flow], 2 MW
S G: Alt Darber, Upside Group[Lead-acid], 1.6 MW
100 H: Dresden, Younicos & DREWAG [Li-ion], 2 MW
T I: Feldheim, Energiequelle GmbH [Li-Ion], 10 MW
80 J: Various sites, N-ERGIE & Caterva [Li-Ion], 1 MW
R
K: Lünen, Daimler [Li-Ion second life], 13 MW
Q L: Aachen, Eon Energy Research Centre at RWTH Aachen University
60
[Hybrid: Li-ion, hightemperature, lead-acid], 5 MW
P M: Dörverden, Statkraft [Li-Ion, ads-tec], 3 MW
40 N: Neuhardenberg, Upside Group [Li-Ion], 5 MW
O
O: Herne, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW
N P: Lünen, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW
20 M
L Q: Duisburg-Walsum, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW
J
G F I K
C A B E D R: Bexbach, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW
0 H
2012/2013 2014 2015 2016/2017 S: Fenne, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW
Year of commissioning T: Weiher, Steag [Li-Ion], 15 MW

Source: IEK-STE Database, Energiespeicher Jülich


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 28
Development of Renewable Energy Curtailment
Disconnection of 1.6 TWh in 2014 with a wind power share of 77%
(2014)

2000

1580
1600

8%

1200
15%

800
554 77%
421 385
400

127
43 82
10 33 33
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GWh Mio. € wind energy solar energy others

Source: Monitoring report 2011-2015, Bundesnetzagentur


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 29
National Innovation Program (NIP)
A unique research program in Europe has been set up by the German
government to promote R&D in the area of fuel cells and hydrogen

• The NIP is the most important R&D program for the H2 and fuel cells industry in Europe
• Total budget of €1.4 bn. from 2007-2016 in the form of project grants (€161 Mio)

Main funding areas for R&D and demonstration activities are:

Stationary • Combined heat and power units on the micro scale for residential buildings
applications • Combined heat and power units for large commercial buildings and industry
• Fuel cell drive systems for vehicles (i.e. automobiles, buses)
Mobile
• Supply of hydrogen (production, distribution, and fueling stations)
applications
• Auxiliary power units for aircrafts, ships and trucks
• Micro applications (Mobile Phone, Laptop)
Portable & Special
• Auxiliary power supply (RVs)
markets
• Fuel cell drive systems for storage (i.e. forklifts, industrial trucks)

Sources: German Ministry of Environment; IiG Research 2008


© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 30
Example: Audi e-gas plant in Werlte
Plant prequalified for secondary control power

Key Parameters

• Project name: Audi e-gas Projekt


• Input power: 6 MWel
• Hydrogen production: 1.300 m³/h
• Start of operation: 25.06.2013
• Owner: Audi AG
• Carbon dioxide source: a biogas plant

Goals Partner

• Demonstration of the process chain • SolarFuel GmbH


• Optimize operational concept (fluctuating • Zentrum für Sonnenenergie und Wasserstoff-
power from wind vs. changing gas feed) Forschung
• Gain experience in technology, costs and • Frauenhofer Institut für Windenergie und
consenting Energiesystemtechnik
• EWE Energie AG
Source: Audi AG
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 31
Green Hydrogen and Power to Gas
H2 Mobility action plan for the Construction of a hydrogen refueling
network in Germany until 2023

TARGETS:
400 HRS until 2023 ( 100 HRS until 2017).
350 mio. € investment.
Max. 90 km distance between two HRS at
the motorway.
10 HRS in each metropolitan area.

Partner:

Associated Partner:

Source: NOW
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 32
SINTEG – New Smart Energy Showcase Regions
EUR 600 mln for cutting-edge technologies to showcase solutions for
Germany‘s future energy system in 5 regions from 2016

1. C/sells: interconnected, regional energy


4 systems with cellular structure and focus on
4 5 PV integration that balance each other
HAMBURG 2. Designnetz: decentralized renewable
3 5 power supplied flexibly to urban and
BERLIN
industrial load centers
5 5
3. Enera: Stabilizing the grid by improved
5
DRESDEN measurement and data analysis coupled
DÜSSELDORF 5
2 with new market mechanisms.
1
4. NEW 4.0: Maximizing the efficient use of
2 FRANKFURT
regional wind power overproduction by
2 flexible demand response and inter-
1 regional trade in electricity
STUTTGART 1
5. WindNODE: Sectors electricity, heat, and
MUNICH
mobility are integrated to flexibly accomo-
date fluctuating regional wind power
Source: bmwi
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.com 33
Contact Us

Smart Grid & Energy Storage

Heiko Staubitz
Senior Manager
T +49 (0)30 200 099-226
heiko.staubitz@gtai.com
Friedrichstr. 60
10117 Berlin

Germany Trade & Invest is the economic development agency of the Federal Republic of Germany. The company helps create and secure extra employment
opportunities, strengthening Germany as a business location. With more than 50 offices in Germany and abroad and its network of partners throughout the world,
Germany Trade & Invest supports German companies setting up in foreign markets, promotes Germany as a business location and assists foreign
companies setting up in Germany.

Supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy on the basis of a decision by the German Bundestag.

© Germany Trade & Invest


All market data provided is based on the most current market information available at the time of publication.
Germany
© GermanyTrade
Trade&&Invest
Invest accepts no liability for the actuality, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided. www.gtai.com 34

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