4/5/2018

Lecture 13th

Interruption Causes and Component Reliability

Parameters
Course Teacher:
Dr. Muhammad Mohsin Aman
Course Code:
EE-524
Course Title:
Power System Reliability
Venue:
Department of Electrical Engineering , Bahiria University Karachi.
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13th Lecture’s Outline

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13th Lecture’s Outline

 Interruption Causes
 Component Modeling
 Component Reliability Parameters

Interruption Causes

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Interruption Causes
✓Customer interruptions are caused by a wide range of phenomena including
• equipment failure,
• animals,
• trees,
• severe weather,
• and human error.
✓These causes are at the root of distribution reliability.
✓In addition, identifying and addressing physical root causes is often the
most cost effective way to address reliability problems.

Component Modeling

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Component Modeling
✓A distribution system consists of thousands of components such as
transformers, circuit breakers, overhead lines, underground cable, fuse cutouts,
and sectionalizing switches. These components are building blocks that can be
assembled in a myriad of ways to create a wide variety of distribution system
designs, each with its own unique characteristics.

Component Modeling
✓From a reliability perspective, nearly all of the information needed to create
a distribution system model is contained in distribution component
information— a highly desirable feature. Given a palette of components,
systems can be constructed from scratch by choosing components and
connecting them together.
✓Once a system model has been created, modifications can be easily made by
adding components, removing components, and modifying component
characteristics.

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Component Modeling
✓Needless to say, component models are critical to distribution system
reliability. A component model should be as simple as possible, but needs to
capture all of the features critical to system reliability. This chapter presents
the reliability parameters typically assigned to components, discusses how
these parameters can be modeled, and provides some guidelines for assigning
default component reliability data.

Reliability Terminologies

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Reliability Terminologies
✓Reliability is a measure of continuous service accomplishment (or time to
failure).
✓Availability: the fraction of the time that service is available. The (steady-
state) probability that power will be available.
✓Clear: to remove a fault or other disturbance-causing condition from the
power supply source or from the electrical route between it and the customer.
✓Cut set: in reliability analysis, a set of components which when removed
from service causes a cessation of power flow.
✓Dependability: used here, it means reliability of performance over the
short-term, or with respect to only a certain schedule: "Although available only
during the day, the solar-power generator proved a dependable source of
power from 9 to 5 every day”.
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Reliability Terminologies
✓Durability: the ability to maintain high levels of reliability or dependability
while in service over long periods of time. Two units of equipment can be
equally reliable, or dependable, when initially installed, but the more durable
will be in much better shape after ten years, etc.
✓Duration: the total elapsed time of an interruption or outage, as the case
may be.
✓Failure: a change in status of equipment or a system from performing its
function as expected to no longer performing its function completely.
✓Failure rate: the average number of failures of a component or unit of the
system in a given time (usually a year).

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Reliability Terminologies
✓Frequency: how often interruptions or outages, as the case may be, occur.
✓Interruption: a cessation of service to one or more customers, whether
power was being used at that moment or not.
▪ Instantaneous interruption: an interruption lasting only as long as it
takes for completely automatic equipment to clear the disturbance or
outage. Often less than one second.
▪ Momentary interruption: an interruption lasting only as long as it takes
automatic but manually supervised equipment to be activated to restore
service, usually only a few minutes, sometimes less than fifteen seconds.
▪ Planned interruption: an interruption of power due to a planned outage,
of which customers were informed reasonably far in advance.
▪ Temporary interruption: an interruption manually restored, lasting as
long as it takes. 13

Reliability Terminologies
✓Outage: the failure of part of the power supply system - a line down,
transformer out of service, or whatever else is intended to be in operation but
is not - whether due to unexpected or planned circumstances.
▪ Expected Outage - an equipment outage that was anticipated in some
sense. Application of this differs from utility to utility, but generally this
means something more definite than “Well, we knew it would fail
eventually”. Often, this is applied to equipment failures that were
anticipated and for which preparations had been made: "Diagnostics
indicated that cable failure was imminent but not which section would
fail. We had switched in a backup cable to continue service when failure
occurred, and went ahead and let the failure happen so as to identify the
bad section of cable”.
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Reliability Terminologies
✓Forced Outage - an equipment outage that was not scheduled in advance,
even if initiated by the utility. The equipment may not be damaged but usually
something went wrong: "The unit was observed to be smoking slightly so it
was withdrawn from service. It turned out just to be a slight oil leak and the
unit was repaired and returned to service the next day."
✓Scheduled Outage - an equipment outage that was scheduled in advance
and initiated by the utility's actions, as for example when work crews remove
equipment from service for maintenance, etc.
✓Unexpected Outage - an equipment outage that was not anticipated.
Usually, an unexpected outage is due to equipment failure, an accident, or
damage of some type.

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Reliability Terminologies
✓Trouble: anything that causes an unexpected outage or interruption
including equipment failures, storms, earthquakes, automobile wrecks,
vandalism, operator error, or "unknown causes." consumers see good
reliability from their point of view when looking back into the system,
regardless of equipment issues.
✓Continuous availability: Perhaps the most important aspect of reliability is
that power most be continuously available. Basically, the utility must maintain
an always unbroken chain of power flow from a source of power to each
consumer.
✓Sufficient power: This chain of power flow must be able to deliver enough
power that it does not constrain the consumer's ability to have as much as he
needs whenever he needs it.
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Reliability Terminologies
✓Satisfactory quality: Voltage, frequency, and other aspects of the power
made available must be suitable to meet the consumer's needs. This is what it
really means to design and operate a "reliable" power delivery system.
✓Figure 4.1 illustrates this, based on a diagram (Figure 2.1) from Brown
(2002). Reliability - whatever guise it takes - is a part of "Power Quality" in
the larger sense. Power quality in turn is part of customer satisfaction, the real
measure of a utility's good customer focus. However, many of the other factors
contributing to customer satisfaction, such as the quality of billing and
response to customer inquiries, are generally beyond the venue of the planner.

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Reliability Terminologies

✓a

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Types of Failure
✓Transient failures (or soft errors):
▪ Charge q = c*v if c and v decrease then it is easier to flip a bit
▪ Sources are cosmic rays and alpha particles and electrical noise
▪ Device is still operational but value has been corrupted
✓Intermittent/temporary failures
▪ Last longer due to Temporary: environmental variations (eg, temperature)
▪ Last longer due to Intermittent: aging
✓Permanent failures
▪ Means that the device will never function again
▪ Must be isolated and replaced by spare
▪ Process variations increase the probability of failures

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Component Reliability Parameters

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Each distribution system component can be described by a set of reliability
parameters.
✓Simple reliability models are based on component failure rates and
component repair times, but sophisticated models make use of many other
reliability parameters.
✓A detailed description of some of the most common component reliability
parameters is now provided.

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Permanent Short Circuit Failure Rate (λP) :
λP describes the number of times per year that a component can expect to
experience a permanent short circuit. This type of failure causes fault current
to flow, requires the protection system to operate, and requires a crew to be
dispatched for the fault to be repaired.

✓Temporary Short Circuit Failure Rate (λT):

λT describes the number of times per year that a component can expect to
experience a temporary short circuit. This type of failure causes fault current to
flow, but will clear itself if the circuit is de-energized (allowing the arc to de-
ionize) and then reenergized.

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Open Circuit Failure Rate (λOC):
λOC describes the number of times per year that a component will interrupt the
flow of current without causing fault current to flow. An example of a
component causing an open circuit is when a circuit breaker false trips.

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Mean Time To Repair (MTTR): MTTR represents the expected time it
will take for a failure to be repaired (measured from the time that the failure
occurs). A single MTTR is typically used for each component, but separate
values can be used for different failure modes. It represents the average time
required to repair a failed component or device.

✓MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) is a measure of how reliable a

component, product or system is. It represents the mean time between failures
for items that are repairable.

✓MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) is similar to MTBF but represents the

mean time to failure for items that are not repairable.
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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) measures reliability
✓Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) measures Service Interruption
✓Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) = MTTF+MTTR

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Failures In Time (FIT) is inverse of MTTF. Traditionally reported as
failures per 109 hours of operation.
✓Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) measures reliability.
✓Failures In Time (FIT) = 1/MTTF, the rate of failures
Ex. MTTF = 1,000,000 FIT = 109/106 = 1000

✓Availability is a measures service as alternate between the 2 states of

accomplishment and interruption (number between 0 and 1, e.g. 0.9)
✓Module availability = MTTF / ( MTTF + MTTR)

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓How to measure a system’s ability to tolerate faults?
✓Reliability = Probability[no failure @ time t] = R(t)
✓Availability = Probability[system operational]
▪ E.g. AT&T ESS-1, one of the first computer-controlled telephone
exchange (deployed in 1960s) was designed for less than two hours
of downtime over its lifetime: 40 years. Availability = 99.9994%
✓Failure rate:
▪ Fraction of samples that fail per unit time
▪ Is NOT constant, changes over time
▪ R(t) = N(t)/N(0), where N(t) is the number of operational units at
time t.
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Component Reliability Parameters

✓If modules have exponentially distributed lifetimes (age of module
does not affect probability of failure), Overall failure rate is the sum of
failure rates of all the modules
✓Calculate FIT and MTTF for 10 disks (1M hour MTTF per disk),
1 disk controller (0.5M hour MTTF), and 1 power supply (0.2M hour
MTTF):
FailureRate = 10 ´ (1/1,000,000) +1/500,000 +1/200,000
= (10 + 2 + 5) /1,000,000
= 17 /1,000,000
= 17,000FIT
MTTF= 1,000,000,000 /17,000
» 59,000hours
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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Mean Time To Maintain (MTTM): MTTM represents the average
amount of time that it takes to perform scheduled maintenance on a piece of
equipment.

✓Mean Time To Switch (MTTS): MTTS represents the expected time it

will take for a sectionalizing switch to operate after a fault occurs on the
system. For manual switches, this is the time that is takes for a crew to be
dispatched and drive to the switch location. For an automated switch, the
MTTS will be much shorter.

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓Probability of Operational Failure (POF): POF is the conditional
probability that a device will not operate if it is supposed to operate. For
example, if an automated switch fails to function properly 5 times out of every
100 attempted operations, it has a POF of 5%. This reliability parameter is
typically associated with switching devices and protection devices.

✓Scheduled Maintenance Frequency (λM): M represents the frequency of

scheduled maintenance for a piece of equipment. For example, a maintenance
frequency of 2 per year means that the equipment is maintained every 6
months.

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Component Reliability Parameters

✓All of the above-mentioned reliability parameters are important, but
component failure rates have historically received the most attention.

✓This is because failure rates have unique characteristics and are essential for
all types of reliability analyses. The next section looks at failure rates in more
detail and explains how electrical component failure rates tend to vary with
time.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓It is typical to model component reliability parameters by a single scalar
value. For example, a power transformer might be modeled with a failure rate
of 0.03 per year. These scalar values, though useful, might not tell the entire
story. Perhaps the most obvious example is the observation that the failure
rates of certain components tend to vary with age.
✓It might seem reasonable to conclude that new equipment fails less than old
equipment.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓When dealing with complex components, this is usually not the case. In
fact, newly installed electrical equipment has a relatively high failure rate due
to the possibility that the equipment has manufacturing flaws, was damaged
during shipping, was damaged during installation, or was installed incorrectly.
This period of high failure rate is referred to as the infant mortality period or
the equipment break-in period.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓If a piece of equipment survives its break-in period, it is likely that there are
no manufacturing defects, that the equipment is properly installed, and that the
equipment is being used within its design specifications. It now enters a period
referred to as its useful life, characterized by a nearly constant failure rate that
can be accurately modeled by a single scalar number.
✓As the useful life of a piece of equipment comes to an end, the previously
constant failure rate will start to increase as the component starts to wear out.
That is why this time is referred to as the wear-out period of the equipment.
During the wear-out period, the failure rate of a component tends to increase
exponentially until the component fails. Upon failure, the component should
be replaced.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓A graph that is commonly used to represent how a component’s failure rate
changes with time is the bathtub curve.
✓The bathtub curve begins with a high failure rate (infant mortality), lowers
to a constant failure rate (useful life), and then increases again (wear-out).

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓a

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

Burn-in is a test performed to screen or

eliminate marginal components with inherent
Failure Rate

1
defects or defects resulting from manufacturing
process.

Early Life
Region

0 Time t
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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

An important assumption for effective maintenance is that

components will eventually have an Increasing Failure Rate.
Maintenance can return the component to the Constant
Failure Region.
Failure Rate

Constant Failure Rate

Region

0 Time t
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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

Components will eventually enter the Wear-
Out Region where the Failure Rate
increases, even with an effective
Failure Rate

Maintenance Program. You need to be able 3

to detect the onset of Terminal Mortality

Wear-Out
Region

0 Time t
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Derivation of R(t)
• Probability[no failure @ time t] = R(t)
• Assuming a constant failure rate λ, N is the number of units
dN  N (t )dt
dN (t )
dR(t ) 
dN (0)

• Integrating with R(0) = 1 boundary: R(t) = e-λt

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓Another name for the bathtub curve is the bathtub hazard function. The use
of the term “hazard rate” is common in the field of reliability assessment and
is equivalent to the failure rate of the component.

✓Hazard Rate (Failure Rate): The hazard rate of a component at time t is

the probability of a component failing at time t if the component is still
functioning at time t.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓A more detailed curve used to represent a component’s hazard function is
the saw-tooth bathtub curve.

✓Instead of using a constant failure rate in the useful life period, this curve
uses an increasing failure rate. The increase is attributed to normal wear, and
can be mitigated by periodic maintenance.

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Failure Rates And Bathtub Curves

✓This is analogous to changing the oil in an automobile. If done regularly,
the reliability of the car will not degrade substantially. If changing the oil is
neglected, reliability will quickly degrade and the probability of a failure
occurring increases accordingly. If performing maintenance on the component
reduces the failure rate to the same level each time, it is referred to as perfect
maintenance.

✓A standard bathtub curve is an approximation of a saw-tooth bathtub curve.

It models the useful life as the average useful life of the saw-tooth curve. This
approximation is sufficient for most reliability models, but a full saw-tooth
curve must be used if decisions about maintenance are to be made.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓A bathtub function and a saw-tooth bathtub function are shown in Figure.
✓The standard bathtub curve is characteristic of the failure rates of many
electrical components that are prone to shipping damage and installation
errors.

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Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves

✓In the real world, maintenance is rarely perfect. After each maintenance
effort, component reliability will usually be a bit worse than the last time
maintenance was performed.
✓If performing maintenance on the component reduces the failure rate to a
slightly higher level each time, it is referred to as imperfect maintenance.
✓A further complication is that failure rates after maintenance can often
increase temporarily. This phenomenon, similar to infant mortality, is due to
the possibility of maintenance crews causing damage, making errors during re-
assembly, leaving tools inside equipment, and so forth. If the maintained
equipment survives for a short period of time, the maintenance was probably
performed properly and failure rates are decreased accordingly.

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Failure Rates And Bathtub Curves

✓A detailed maintenance interval hazard function is shown in Figure 4.2.

✓ A hazard function showing the detailed behavior of equipment reliability during

maintenance. When maintenance is performed at hour 100, the failure rate (λ) is
relatively high. λ is reduced to zero during maintenance, and then spikes to a very high
level due to the possibility of mistakes happening during maintenance. λ quickly
decreases to a level lower than pre-maintenance, and then gradually rises until it is
time for the next maintenance activity. 47

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