Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188

www.elsevier.com/locate/envsoft

Modelling of traffic flow and air pollution emission

with application to Hong Kong Island
Liping Xia*, Yaping Shao
Department of Physics and Materials Science, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China
Received 22 November 2003; received in revised form 16 July 2004; accepted 9 August 2004

Abstract

In this study, we propose a Lagrangian model for the simulation of traffic flow on a complex road network. This simple approach
is quite efficient if adequate road network data are available and statistical constraints are applied to confine the model behavior. We
have established a traffic information database for Hong Kong Island and applied the model for traffic flow simulation. It is shown
that by specifying three types of traffic routes (random turn, preferred turn and shortest path) and providing traffic flow data at
selected stations, the model is capable of simulating traffic flow on the road network. This is confirmed by comparing model
simulated and observed traffic flow patterns at several monitoring stations. The simulated traffic flow is then used as the basis for the
estimation of traffic induced emission of air pollutants on the island. Using empirical emission factors for a number of vehicle
categories, the emission rates of major air pollutants, CO, NOx and PM10, are estimated. The predicted emission rates are compared
with measurements for several air quality monitoring stations.
Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Traffic; Traffic flow model; Road network; Traffic emission; Urban air pollution

1. Introduction In order to provide a viable method for quantifying

Traffic generated air pollution is of great concern to
the general public. Motor vehicles emit nitrogen oxides
(NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic com-
pounds (VOC) and particulate matter (PM), which
constitute a major source of air pollution in large cities,
such as Hong Kong. Traffic generated air pollutants,
such as NO2 and PM, are of health concern; and traffic
generated greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide
(CO2), may contribute to global warming. As motor
vehicles are the major contributor to urban air
pollution, controlling strategies need to be developed
that minimize the environmental impacts but maximize
the efficiency of motorized transport.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: C852 27889482; fax: C852
27887830.
E-mail address: aplpxia@cityu.edu.hk (L. Xia).
the contribution of traffic emission to regional air
quality, we develop an integrated Traffic Emission
Information System (TEIS) which allows the prediction
of traffic induced air pollution in real-time. More details
on TEIS are given in Section 3.4. As the key components
of TEIS, the traffic flow model and traffic emission
model are developed and presented in this study.
The emission factor based approach is widely used in
modelling traffic-related pollution emission (e.g. Salles
et al., 1996; Mensink et al., 2000; Lin and Lin, 2002;
Jensen et al., 2001). The accuracy of this approach
depends very much on the reliability of traffic data
(traffic volume and velocity, their temporal and spatial
variations, on road vehicle composition etc.) and the
choice of emission factors. The methodology to derive
these two types of data is consequently critic to
emission factor based modelling of traffic pollution
emissions.

1364-8152/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.08.003
1176 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188
Traffic data are generally obtained by either in-situ
observation or numerical modelling. The former most
accurately reflects traffic conditions in real-time, but is
usually carried out on selected road links only, e.g.
highways and artery roads. The amount of observed
data is often insufficient for adequately quantifying the
traffic on a road network. Further, in-situ measurements
are usually done on a daily or even a monthly basis. This
temporal resolution is insufficient for refined (usually
hourly) emission modelling. A complement is to make
temporal and spatial extrapolation with many assump-
tions to allocate traffic volume, e.g. Salles et al. (1996)
and Jensen et al. (2001). Another approximate method-
ology previously adopted, as pointed out by Cohen et al.
(2004), is to distribute traffic emission over model grid
cells, resulting in improper grid-based averaging emis-
sion rate instead of that along actual mobile source. Lin
and Niemeier (1998) used observed traffic data to
estimate hourly allocation factors and disaggregated
traffic volume into hourly values. These indirect
methods inevitably lead to inaccuracies in emission
modelling. In theory, numerical modelling of traffic flow
on road can provide every detail required for the
calculation of traffic emissions. Unfortunately, previous
efforts failed to do this because of road network
complexity and, as we will see below, difficulties in
solving the traffic flow equations.
Continuum hydrodynamics was firstly introduced to
traffic flow theory in the 1950s (Lighthill and Whiteman,
1955). Prigogine and Herman (1971) applied statistical
methods, as in classic fluid dynamics, to traffic flow
studies. The work of Prigogine and Herman, known as
the kinetic theory of traffic, considered vehicles on road
as interacting particles in traffic flow which can be
described by one-dimensional compressible fluid equa-
tions. Suppose there is neither creation nor destruction
of vehicles on road, the continuity equation and the
equation of motion for traffic flow can be written as:
vr vr
Cv Z0 ð1Þ
vt vs



 
vv vv 1 v vv vp
Cv Z m
CI ð2Þ
vt vs r vs vs vs
where r is density (number of cars per unit road length),
n is traffic flow velocity, m is viscosity, and p is local
pressure. The first term on the right hand of Eq. (2)
models viscosity, a presumed tendency to adjust vehicle
speed to that of the surrounding traffic (Nagatani, 1998).
The last term I is all inner forces due to interaction
between individual cars (Kerner and Konhauser, 1993).
In practice, the continuum hydrodynamic approach is
difficult to implement for two reasons. One is that the
quantities such as m, I and p are not well defined and
cannot be readily determined, and the other is that the
numerical solution of Eqs. (1) and (2) requires their
discretization for complex road networks. The numer-
ical treatments for the diffusion and advection terms are
rather cumbersome.
As an alternative, some researchers established
equilibrium relations between traffic density and traffic
flow velocity for the closure of Eq. (1) instead of using
Eq. (2). By definition, traffic flow is the product of traffic
density and velocity. If traffic density is zero, then traffic
flow is also zero; and when traffic density reaches the
maximum, i.e., traffic is congested, traffic velocity
decreases to zero, so traffic flow is also zero. Newell
(1993), Daganzo (1994) and Wong and Wong (2002)
suggested piecewise-linear flow–density relationships.
De Angelis (1999) studied nonlinear hydrodynamic
modelling of traffic flow in theory. The linear diffusion
term was taken into account in the governing equations.
De Angelis found that a second order flow–density
relation gives a satisfactory fitting to the experimental
results of Leutzbach (1988). Critical analysis on a similar
model but with additional phenomenological relation
between density and velocity was presented by Bonzani
(2000) and Marasco (2002). Velan and Florian (2002)
explored the implications of nonsmooth equilibrium
flow–density relationships. However, all these studies
were concerned with traffic flows on individual high-
ways. We are not aware of traffic model applications to
complex road networks.
Our approach is different. In contrast to the
continuum hydrodynamic approach, we consider the
motion of individual vehicles and determine the macro-
scopic traffic flow quantities on the basis of vehicle
movement. Although the problem of traffic on network
is highly complicated, the movement of individual
vehicles is quite simple. Vehicle movement is analogous
to that of gaseous molecules. However, while molecules
move randomly, vehicles are confined to the road
network and follow certain designated paths. Hence,
the movement of individual vehicles is predictable.
We are therefore motivated to track vehicles on road
network using the Lagrangian methodology. This
approach requires no predefined velocity–density re-
lationship. Instead, we introduce a critical traffic density
and two time scales. The motion of an individual vehicle
is governed by a first-order ordinary differential equation
which can be solved by using, for example, the Runge–
Kutta method. Macroscopic traffic flow quantities, such
as traffic flow velocity and traffic density, can be esti-
mated once the velocity and position of individual
vehicles are known. The Lagrangian approach is very
simple in theory and involves little mathematical diffi-
culties. However, we recognize that the implementation
of such a model on a road network requires the knowl-
edge of designated paths for individual vehicles. For
a given road network, we may be dealing with millions
of vehicles and it is impossible to determine the
 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188
designated paths for all vehicles. However, it is possible
to force the designated paths to comply with certain
statistical conditions.
Another difficulty in modelling traffic in practice is
the requirement for data, in order to quantify the road
network, including road type, junctions, traffic lights
and the sources and sinks of vehicles. In TEIS, coupled
with a traffic GIS (geographic information system), the
integration of dynamic models with vehicle and road
network data is achieved.
The traffic emission simulation presented in this study
is on the basis of the traffic flow simulation for Hong
Kong Island. Since the emission factors specifically for
Hong Kong are yet to be determined, those derived
from COPERT II emission inventory programme
(Ahlvik et al., 1997) are used in this study. COPERT
II was recommended by the European Environment
Agent and widely adopted in Europe for emission
estimates from road transport (e.g. Mensink et al., 2000;
Reynolds and Broderick, 2000).
The modelling results of traffic flow and major
pollutant emission rates in Hong Kong Island network
are compared with the traffic data obtained at several
counting stations and air quality monitoring at roadside
stations, as presented in Section 4.
2. Model description
Several databases are established for the modelling.
These include (i) Hong Kong Island road network
database, in essence an attribution table for the specifi-
cation of network connectivities, speed limits and road
classes [roads in Hong Kong are classified into catalogues
of Tunnel (TUN), Main road (MRD), Secondary road
(SRD) and Trail (TAL)]; (ii) vehicle database for the
specification of vehicle characteristics and probability
distribution of vehicle types; (iii) traffic emission factor
database and (iv) air quality monitoring database.
2.1. Traffic flow model
According to traffic density, we introduce two traffic
modes on a road network: a free traffic mode and
a congestion mode. Let rc be a critical traffic density,
separating the free traffic mode from the congestion
mode. If r ! rc on a road segment, then traffic is in the
free traffic mode and vehicles would accelerate to a speed
limit vlim. If r O rc, then traffic is in congestion mode
and vehicles would decelerate to zero speed. According-
ly, the equation of motion for a vehicle can be written as:
( vlim
vi
dvi r%rc
ta
Z
vi ð3Þ
dt rOrc
tb
1177
where ta and tb are vehicle acceleration and deceleration
response times, respectively. These response times are
mainly functions of traffic density, as they do not differ
to a great degree among vehicles.
Suppose a road length is L and the minimum allowed
separation (on average) is D, then the maximum allowed
number of vehicles on L in free traffic mode is N Z L/D.
Therefore, the critical traffic density rc is:
N 1
rc Z Z ð4Þ
L D
Eq. (3) is a first-order ordinary differential equation,
which can be easily solved (e.g. using the Runge–Kutta
method), assuming initial traffic density r0j and speed v0j
on road segment j and vlim,j are known.
By definition r is the number of vehicles per unit road
length. Suppose we start counting vehicle number at
time t on road segment j of length Dsj. If the counting
interval is dt, then over a time period Dt, m ( Z Dt/dt)
counts N1, N2,.,Nm are made. The average traffic
density over Dt at segment j is:
X
m
Ni Dt dt X m
rj ðtCDtÞZ = Z Ni ð5Þ
iZ1
Dsj dt Dsj Dt iZ1
Substituting  rj into Eq. (3), the speed of car i on segment
j, vi;j Zvi;j rj ; tCDt can be determined. The overall
traffic speed Vj and traffic flow Qj on segment j during t
to tCDt are:
Vj Zvi;j ð6Þ
Qj Zrj Vj ð7Þ
This procedure is repeated for each vehicle on the
road network from start time t0 to end time T.
Combining the determined trips with statistic con-
straints to traffic assignment (see Section 3.2), traffic
density, velocity and flow at each road segment in time
interval Dt are simulated over the entire network.
2.2. The traffic emission model
Traffic emission rate is related to a number of vehicle
characteristics: model, engine size, age, annual mileage
by vehicle age and exhaust control equipment (Bachman
et al., 2000). To estimate the emission of a vehicle fleet,
the vehicle population is divided into several categories.
Seven categories are used in this study:
 Motor Cycle (MC): motor-propelled 2- or 3-wheeled
vehicle;
 Private car & Taxi (PC, TX): gasoline passenger car
and taxi. 1.41 ! CC ! 2.01;
1178 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188

 Public Light Bus (PLB): passenger carrying vehicle
with capacity of 17 seats. CC O 2.01;
 Passenger Van (PV): dual purpose gasoline van with
capacity not exceeding 17 seats with weight less than
3.5 t;
 Bus (BUS): diesel urban buses and coaches;
 Light Goods Vehicle (LGV): four wheeled lorry or
dual purpose van which is not provided with side
windows covering the full length of the vehicle body,
with weight less than 3.5 t;
 Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV): lorry with more than
four wheels, including fire engines, refuse vans,
military trucks, petrol tanks and other similar
vehicles, with weight exceeding 3.5 t.
For vehicle category i, the emission rate of pollutant j
on road k is calculated by:
Eijk ZCij Vik
where Vik is the traffic flow of vehicles type i on road k
and Cij is the emission factor of pollutant j emitted by
vehicles type i. Further, Vik can be expressed as:
Vik ZPik Vk
where Pik and Vk are the fraction of vehicle type i and
the traffic flow of all vehicle types on road k,
respectively. The emission rate of pollutant j of the
vehicle fleet on road k can then be calculated by:
X
n X
n X
n
Ejk Z Eijk Z Pik Vk Cij ZVk Pik Cij
iZ1 iZ1 iZ1
where Vk is calculated using the traffic flow model, and
Pik is estimated based on in-situ investigation conducted
by local government departments. Table 1 shows the
proportion of various vehicles by counting at the exit of
three cross-harbour tunnels of Hong Kong in year 2000
(HKTD, 2001). The values listed are averages over 16 h
(0700–2300). In the traffic census of Hong Kong, there
are 203 counting stations in total on the island, although
we only listed data from three stations.
The emission factors Cij are estimated by COPERT II
methodology (Ahlvik et al., 1997). The reason we chose
COPERT II for Hong Kong is that Europe emission
standards have been implemented in Hong Kong since
1995 under Air Pollution Control Regulations. The
Hong Kong government introduced the EURO I and
EURO II emission standards in 1995 and 1997,
respectively. Furthermore, the government tightened
the emission standards for newly registered motor
vehicles (design weight less than 3.5 t) to EURO III
level in 2001.
Three emission modes are taken into account for
calculation of emission factors: (i) hot emissions, these
are the emissions from vehicles after they have warmed
up to their normal operating temperature; (ii) cold-start
emissions, these are the emissions from vehicles while
they are warming up and the water temperature is below
70  C; and (iii) evaporative emissions, these are associ-
ated with the relevant quantities for gasoline vehicles in
the form of no-methane VOC (subtracting CH4 from
VOC) emissions.
The resultant hot emission factors of CO, NOx and
PM10 adopted in this study are listed in Tables 2–4.
‘Conventional’ vehicle category is applied for all except
ð8Þ 93/59/EEC for LGV in the form of NOx emission in
Table 3 and 91/441/EEC for PLB in the form of CO and
NOx emissions in Tables 2 and 3. The cold emissions are
taken into account as additional emissions per kilometer
by introducing cold to hot ratio of emissions, ecold/ehot,
and the fraction of mileage, b, driven with cold engines
or catalyst operated below the light-off temperature.
They are the function of ambient temperature and the
average trip length. The calculation formula for these
parameters can be found in Ahlvik et al. (1997).
ð9Þ 3. Model application to Hong Kong
We have applied the models to the simulation of
traffic flow and traffic-related emission on Hong Kong
Island. The road network on the island is shown in
Fig. 1, which is represented by over 6000 line features in
ArcGIS. The traffic on the island is an isolated system
with only three harbour tunnels linking to the out-
sidedi.e., Kowloon and the New Territory. This
significantly simplifies the simulation. The traffic data
obtained in the three tunnelsdfrom left to right in
Fig. 1, Western Tunnel, Cross Harbour Tunnel and
Eastern Tunneldare used as boundary conditions for
the modelling.
Table 2
Speed dependency of CO emission factors
Vehicle Vehicle Speed Emission factor
class category [km h
1] [g km
1]

Table 1 1 MC 10–60
0.001V2 C 0.172V C 18.1

Counted fraction (%) of vehicles in cross-harbour tunnels of Hong 60–110 0.0001V2 C 0.05V C 21.5
Kong 2 PC, TX 10–130 0.000957V2
0.151V C 8.273
3 PV 10–130 0.01104V2
1.5132V C 57.789
Vehicle type MC PC, TX PV PLB BUS LGV HGV 4 PLB 10–130 0.00609V2
0.0793V C 3.45358
Cross Harbor Tunnel 3.6 59.6 1.7 0.6 7.8 22.4 4.3 5 BUS 0–50 59.003V
0.7447
Eastern Tunnel 2.9 65.9 1.6 1.3 4.1 20.4 3.8 6 LGV 10–130 0.0002V2
0.0256V C 1.8281
Western Tunnel 1.5 70.1 1.7 4.1 8.0 11.9 2.7 7 HGV 0–100 37.28V
0.6945
 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1179

Table 3 The observed traffic flow data is divided into two

Speed dependency of NOx emission factors main groups: one represents the average traffic flow on
Vehicle Vehicle Speed V Emission factor [g km
1] working days (Mon–Fri) and the other average traffic
class category [km h
1] flow on weekends (Sat–Sun).
1 MC 10–60 0.00003V2
0.002V C 0.064
60–110
0.00002V2 C 0.0049V
0.157 3.1.2. Traffic flow entering Hong Kong Island
2 PC, TX 10–130 0.000247V2 C 0.0014V C 1.387
3 PV 10–130 0.000094V2
0.0079V C 1.9391
Fig. 2 shows the averaged hourly inward (south
4 PLB 10–130 0.0001015V2
0.0107V C 0.4767 bound) traffic flow on weekdays in three tunnels. There
5 BUS 0–50 89.174V
0.5185 exists a morning (0800 and 0900) and an afternoon peak
6 LGV 10–130 0.000127V2
0.01674V C 0.9037 hour (1800 and 1900) in both Western and Eastern
7 HGV !7.5 t 0–50 50.305V
0.7708 Tunnel, while a relative steady daytime flow appears in
50–100 0.0014V2
0.1737V C 7.5506
Cross Harbour Tunnel from 0800 to 1900. All three
tunnels present minimum inward flow at dawn. In total,
3.1. Traffic data for Hong Kong the Cross Harbour Tunnel has the highest traffic flow
(61,816 veh day
1), while the Western Tunnel has the
The year 2000 traffic data for Hong Kong Island, lowest traffic flow (22,165 veh day
1) during weekdays.
published in the Annual Traffic Census 2000 by the Fig. 3 presents the average incoming traffic flow
Transport Department of Hong Kong (HKTD), are during weekend in the three tunnels. The variation
used for specifying the initial and boundary conditions pattern for Cross Harbour Tunnel is similar to
of the model. The data are also used for model weekdays with the lowest traffic flow occurring around
validation. 0500. The morning peak time is delayed until 1000. In
fact, traffic flow remains high from 1000 to 1900 before
becoming less at 2100. After that, a night peak hour
3.1.1. Traffic counting stations appears from 2200 to 2300. The traffic in both Western
In the Annual Traffic Census 2000, traffic flow is Tunnel and Eastern Tunnel show similar patterns to
surveyed at 806 counting stations over Hong Kong, of Cross Harbour Tunnel, but with much lower traffic flow
which 203 are on Hong Kong Island. In this census, the during daytime. Again, among the three tunnels, the
road network on the island is divided into four Cross Harbour Tunnel has the highest traffic flow
categories: (61,480 veh day
1) and the Western Tunnel has the
lowest traffic flow (18,013 veh day
1) at weekends.
(a) Urban 1: areas corresponding more or less to the
business district; 3.2. Vehicle behavior on network
(b) Urban 2 (major roads): areas including major road
links in other urban areas; Every vehicle on road has its own origin and
(c) Recreational: areas including much of the Peak and destination (O–D). The traveling route of the vehicle
the central part of the beach areas; depends on the driver’s need and traffic conditions.
(d) Remote: South-eastern part of Hong Kong Island. Numerous traffic assignment models have been de-
veloped aiming at determining the network flow patterns
We chose three counting stations on the island in order to provide route guides during times of concern
(Fig. 1) for model comparison (Section 4.1), each of (e.g. morning peak hours). A review of dynamic traffic
which represents a traffic category: assignment (DTA) models can be found in Peeta and
Ziliaskopoulos (2001). A discussion of DTA problems
(a) Station 1001: Harcourt Road, representing the was recently presented by Peeta and Yang (2003).
Urban 1 category; Existing DTA models generally involve high complexity.
(b) Station 1002: Victoria Park Road, representing the In some studies, the problem is much simplified with
Urban 2 category; and specifications (Papageorgiou, 1990) such as: steady-state
(c) Station 1011: Repulse Bay Road & Stanley Gap conditions (Sheffi, 1985); single destination (Sarachik
Road, representing the Recreation category. and Ozguner, 1982; Wie, 1988; Ziliaskopoulos, 2000);
fixed routes (D’Ans and Gazis, 1976) etc. The disad-
Table 4 vantage of the simplifications is that they do not
Speed dependency of PM10 emission factors adequately reflect vehicle behavior on road network.
Vehicle Vehicle Speed Emission factor [g km
1] To overcome the problem, we propose a combination
class category [km h
1] of deterministic and statistic constraints of three typical
5 BUS 0–50 7.8609V
0.736 travel options for all vehiclesdrandom turning trip,
6 LGV 10–130 0.0000125V2
0.000577V C 0.288 preferred turning trip and shortest path. In this study,
7 HGV 0–100 4.5563V
0.7070
we assume the origin of all vehicles be one of the three
1180 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188

Fig. 1. Hong Kong Island network and locations of traffic counting and AQM stations.

cross-harbour tunnels, ignoring the sources on Hong
Kong Island.
3.2.1. Random turning trip
In this travel option, a vehicle travels randomly on
road, i.e., it turns randomly to any linked road when
encountering a traffic light or being at the intersection of
multiple roads, only subject to traffic rules. Among all
vehicles on a road network, only a small proportion of
vehicles adopts this option of travel. We assume such
proportion to be 10%. Fig. 4 shows an example of this
option. A vehicle origins from the Western Tunnel and
ends the trip on South Lane, Sham Wan, a no-through
road.
3.2.2. Preferred turning trip
In this study, all roads are classified into four
categories: tunnels, main roads, secondary roads and
trails. For the preferred turning option, a vehicle at an
intersection turns preferably to a higher class road. We
assume 20% of the vehicles on road behave this way.
Fig. 5 shows the driving route of a vehicle making

4000
Cross Harbour Tunnel
Western Tunnel
3500 Eastern Tunnel

3000
Traffic flow (vh/hr)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)

Fig. 2. Incoming traffic flow in tunnels on weekdays.

 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1181

3500
Cross Harbour Tunnel
Western Tunnel
3000 Eastern Tunnel

2500

Traffic flow (vh/hr)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)

Fig. 3. Incoming traffic flow in tunnels during weekends.

a preferred turning trip. It also origins from the Western Shing. The shortest ways determined by the model are
Tunnel and, after exit from the tunnel, it travels along quite reasonable for given O–D.
Connaught Road West toward Central.
3.3. Air quality monitoring

3.2.3. Shortest path trip 3.3.1. Site information

Most drivers make a trip as short as possible to reach
their destination. Our model is capable of finding the
shortest path between the origin and destination of
a trip using the Dijkstra algorithm, which is based on
the Bellman optimality principle (e.g. Kreyszig, 1988).
Fig. 6 shows two shortest paths originating from the
Cross Harbour Tunnel. One destination is located at
intersection of High Street and Western Street, Sai Ying
Pun and another destination is at King’s Road, Taikoo
Air quality monitoring (AQM) in Hong Kong is
carried out regularly at monitoring stations by Hong
Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD).
This network covers Hong Kong Island, Kowloon
and New Territory. The monitored pollutants include
sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen di-
oxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), respirable sus-
pended particulates (RSP) and ozone (O3). We use the
hourly monitoring data of CO, NOx and RSP at three

Fig. 4. An example for random turning trip.

1182 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188

Fig. 5. Typical preferred driving route.

roadside monitoring stations on Hong Kong Island for
validating the model estimates.
The site information of three monitoring stations is as
follows (HKEPD, 2000):
(a) Central/Western: located in a residential area and
the sampling height is 18 m (4 floors) above ground;
(b) Causeway Bay: located in a busy commercial area
and the sampling height is 2 m above ground;
(c) Central: located in a busy commercial/financial area
and the sampling height is 4.5 m above ground.
The locations of the stations are shown in Fig. 1.
3.3.2. Observed pollution concentration
The monitored hourly concentrations of CO, NOx
and RSP (PM10) at the three stations in year 2000 are
plotted in Fig. 7. The diurnal variation of the concen-
trations shows a degree of similarity with that of the
workday’s traffic flow observed in the same function
district (Fig. 7d). The concentrations in Fig. 7a–c
present the maximum values at 0800–0900 and 1700–
1800, corresponding to the morning and afternoon peak
hours of traffic in the area. This temporal feature is
clearly observed at Central and Central/Western. At
Causeway Bay, although the morning maximum of CO
(Fig. 7a) and the afternoon maximum of NOx (Fig. 7b)

Fig. 6. Typical shortest path between specific origin and destination.

 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1183

2000 700
(a) (b)
Concentration (µg m-3)

Concentration (µg m-3)

1800
600
1600
1400 500
1200 400
1000 Central
800 Central 300
Causeway Bay
600 Causeway Bay 200 Central/Western
400
100
200
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr) t (hr)

1.2
140
(c) (d)

Normalized traffic flow

Concentration (µg m-3)

120 1

100 0.8
80
0.6
60
Central 0.4
40
Causeway Bay
20 0.2
Central/Western

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr) t (hr)

Fig. 7. Monitoring concentrations of (a) CO, (b) NOx and (c) PM10. (d) Diurnal variation of traffic flow.

are not observed, another maximum is still notable in 3.4. GIS and models
the plots. The minimum concentrations of pollutants
appear at 0300–0500, when the traffic flow is at the The models discussed in this study are the key
lowest as well. components of the Traffic Emission Information System

Fig. 8. Framework of TEIS.

1184 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188

(TEIS). TEIS consists of three modules: a traffic flow 4000

Simulated (a)
model, a traffic emission model and a pollution disper- 3500

Traffic flow (vh/hr)

Real-time
sion model. Together with the databases and post- 3000
processors, TEIS is integrated into a GIS framework. 2500
ArcGIS is used for the maintenance of model database 2000
and the visualization and analysis of model results. 1500
Fig. 8 illustrates the framework of the modelling system, 1000
in which the system database, including road network, 500
territorial data, traffic features and vehicle character- 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
istics as well as the meteorological and geographic data, t (hr)
and model output are stored, maintained and eventually
visualized and analyzed in ArcGIS. The external 4000
(b)
models, traffic flow model, traffic emission model and 3500 Simulated

Traffic flow (vh/hr)

air dispersion model coded in Fortran, are integrated 3000 Real-time

into GIS by ArcInfo AML. 2500

2000
1500
4. Results and discussions 1000
500
4.1. Simulation of traffic flow 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

4.1.1. Traffic boundary and initial conditions t (hr)

As Hong Kong Island is connected to the outside 2500
only with three cross-harbour tunnels, all vehicles Simulated (c)
Traffic flow (vh/hr)

entering our simulated domain are through the three 2000 Real-time

tunnels. Therefore, the incoming traffic flow in the

tunnels discussed in Section 3.1 is assigned as boundary
conditions for the simulation. Our aim is to simulate
traffic flow on network over 24-h time span. The
simulation starts at 0:00 am, and the initial traffic flow
on the entire network is assumed to be zero.
4.1.2. Traffic flow in tunnels
We first examine the simulation of traffic flows in the
tunnels, at locations about 200–900 m away from the
tunnel entries. Fig. 9a shows the simulated and observed
traffic flow on weekdays at the examination point in the
Cross Harbour Tunnel. The simulated traffic flow well
reproduces the observations. Also, the simulations for
the Eastern Tunnel and the Western Tunnel also show
good agreement with the observed traffic flow (Fig. 9b
and c).
4.1.3. Traffic flow at counting stations
We also simulated 24-h traffic flows for weekdays
outside the tunnels. The simulated results are compared
with traffic flow data obtained at three counting stations
described in Section 3.1.
Fig. 10 shows the simulated traffic flow (normalized
by its maximum value) at counting stations for
weekdays. The observed traffic flow is also plotted for
comparison. Station 1001 belongs to the Urban 1
category. The daytime traffic flow during weekdays
(Fig. 10a) is characterized by the morning and afternoon
rush hours around 0800–0900 and 1700–1800. Fig. 10a
shows that the simulation reproduces the observed 24-h
1500
1000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)
Fig. 9. Simulated against real-time traffic flow in tunnels (weekdays):
(a) Cross Harbour Tunnel; (b) Eastern Tunnel; (c) Western Tunnel.
traffic pattern satisfactorily although the traffic flow
from 1000 to 2400 is slightly underestimated.
A similar comparison for Station 1002 is shown in
Fig. 10b. Station 1002 falls into the Urban 2 category.
The road links within this category are mainly used for
traveling to and from work on weekdays. They are also
heavily used during weekends for recreational and social
activities (HKTD, 2001). There are more obvious traffic
peaks observed between 0800 and 1700. The model
successfully simulated the bi-peak structure of the
observed traffic flow although the first traffic peak at
0800 is somewhat over predicted. Also, the simulated
traffic flow at night (after 1800) is somewhat lower than
the observed values. This discrepancy may be caused by
ignoring the sinks and sources on the network in this
work, remaining as an important consideration to
improve the modelling performance in future.
The simulated and observed traffic flow at Station
1011 is compared in Fig. 10c. Station 1011 falls into the
 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1185

1.2 tunnels during weekends differ from those observed

(a)
Simulated during weekdays. In particular, no obvious traffic peaks
Normalized traffic flow

1
Real-time are observed in the Western Tunnel and the Eastern
0.8 Tunnel during the daytime. As most traffic travel for
0.6
different purposes on weekends, different traffic patterns
are also observed at the counting stations.
0.4 Fig. 11 shows the traffic flow patterns at three
0.2 stations on weekends. Both observed and simulated
traffic flow are plotted for comparison. Again, the
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 simulation reproduces the observed traffic pattern quite
t (hr) well. Unlike the weekday cases, there is no obvious
traffic peak during daytime at Stations 1001 and 1002
1.4 (Fig. 11a and b). This is understandable as there are less
Simulated (b)
business trips to these areas on weekends. The peak
Normalized traffic flow

1.2 Read-time
1
hour at Station 1011 is at 1600 (Fig. 11c). This
reasonably reflects the preferred time when the most
0.8

0.6

0.4
1.2
0.2 (a)
Normalized traffic flow 1
Simulated
0 Real-time
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
0.8
t (hr)
0.6
1.2
Simulated (c) 0.4
Normalized traffic flow

1 Real-time
0.2
0.8
0
0.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (hr)
0.4
1.2
0.2 Simulated
(b)
Normalized traffic flow

1
Real-time
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0.8
t (hr)
0.6
Fig. 10. Simulated against real-time traffic flow at counting stations
(weekdays): (a) 1001; (b) 1002; (c) 1011. 0.4

0.2

Recreational category. While most vehicles passing 0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
through this station on weekdays are also used for t (hr)
work trips, the observed traffic flow presents a different
1.2
pattern in comparison to those at Stations 1001 and (c)
Simulated
Normalized traffic flow

1002 (Fig. 10a and b). In contrast to Stations 1001 and 1 Real-time
1002, only one traffic peak is observed in the afternoon
0.8
(1600) at Station 1011, while the simulated traffic flow
presents the peak values during both morning (0800) 0.6
and afternoon (1600). It is shown in Fig. 10c that the
0.4
observation at this station is well produced by the
model. 0.2

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

4.1.4. Sensitivity tests t (hr)

Model simulations are also made for weekend cases. Fig. 11. Simulated and observed weekend traffic flows at three
As discussed in Section 3.1, traffic patterns in the three counting stations: (a) 1001; (b) 1002; (c) 1011.
1186 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188

traffic for recreational purposes are on roads to the correlation between the predicted emission rates and
recreational area. measured concentrations as a validation of the emission
model.
4.2. Simulation of traffic emission The predicted hourly emission rates (kg h
1 km
1)
against the observed concentrations (mg m
3) of CO,
Traffic emission rates (kg h
1 km
1) are calculated NOx and PM10 at Central, Causeway Bay and Central/
using Eq. (9). The predicted diurnal variations of CO, Western are shown in Figs. 13–15. The linear regression
NOx and PM10 at Central, Causeway Bay and Central/ equations and the correlation coefficients R2 are also
Western are plotted in Fig. 12. It is observed that the shown in the charts.
variation of traffic flow in Fig. 7d is completely reflected Figs. 13–15 indicate that the observed hourly
in the curves in Fig. 12. This means the linear relation pollution concentrations have a close linear correlation
between traffic flow and traffic induced emission rates. with the predicted traffic emissions at the three stations.
Figs. 7a–c and 12a–c are not directly comparable For CO, the correlation coefficients, R2, at both
because pollution concentrations are measured at the Causeway Bay and Central are larger than 0.8. The R2
monitoring stations while the model predictions are of NOx at Central is as high as 0.86. While it is
pollution emission rates. Instead, we analyze the somewhat lower at Causeway Bay and Central/Western,
it still has the value of 0.78 and 0.74. The R2 of PM10 at
the three stations are between 0.82 and 0.85. The
1.4 correlation coefficients are summarized in Table 5.
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

(a)
1.2 These results confirm the good performance of both
the traffic flow model and the traffic emission model.
1

0.8

0.6
Central 5. Conclusions
0.4 Causeway Bay

0.2 A Lagrangian traffic flow model and an emission

factor based traffic-related air pollution emission model
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 have been developed in this study. The traffic flow model
t (hr)

0.7
CO : Central
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

(b)
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

0.6 1.4
1.2 y = 0.0017x - 1.0037
0.5
R2 = 0.8446
1
0.4
0.8
0.3 Central
Causeway Bay 0.6
0.2
Central/Western 0.4
0.1 0.2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 600 800 1000 1200
t (hr) Concentration (µg m-3)

0.03
CO : Causeway Bay
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

(c)
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

0.025 1.4
1.2 y = 0.0015x - 1.4317
0.02
1 R2 = 0.7997
Central
0.015 Causeway Bay 0.8
Central/Western 0.6
0.01
0.4
0.005 0.2

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900
t (hr) Concentration (µg m-3)

Fig. 12. Modelling emission rates of (a) CO, (b) NOx and (c) PM10. Fig. 13. CO concentration vs. traffic emission rate.
 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188 1187

NOx : Central PM : Central

Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

0.7 0.01
0.6 y = 0.001x - 0.0056 y = 0.0002x - 0.0055
0.008
0.5 R2 = 0.8638 R2 = 0.8482

0.4 0.006

0.3 0.004
0.2
0.002
0.1
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20 40 60 80 100
Concentration (µg m-3) Concentration (µg m-3)

NOx : Causeway Bay PM : Causeway Bay

Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

0.7 0.03
0.6 y = 0.0012x - 0.1745 y = 0.0004x - 0.0208
0.025
R2 = 0.7752 R2 = 0.8294
0.5
0.02
0.4
0.015
0.3
0.01
0.2
0.1 0.005

0 0
0 200 400 600 800 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Concentration (µg m-3) Concentration (µg m-3)

NOx : Central/Western PM : Central/Western

Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)
Emission rate (kg hr-1 km-1)

0.08 2.E-03

y = 0.0006x - 0.0209 y = 8E-05x - 0.003

2.E-03
0.06 R2 = 0.7408 R2 = 0.8228
1.E-03
0.04
8.E-04

0.02 4.E-04

0 0.E+00
0 50 100 150 30 40 50 60 70

Concentration (µg m-3) Concentration (µg m-3)

Fig. 14. NOx concentration vs. traffic emission rate. Fig. 15. PM10 concentration vs. traffic emission rate.

is simple, but has been found to be quite efficient. With correlated. This shows that the emission factor based
the specification of travel behavior, the model is capable approach for the prediction of traffic induced pollution
of simulating traffic flow on a road network. The model emission in urban area is adequate.
has been applied successfully to Hong Kong Island. The In addition to providing traffic flow data for traffic-
simulated traffic flows in three cross-harbour tunnels related pollution simulation, the traffic flow model
and at three counting stations on the island for presented in this work can also be used to predict the
weekdays and weekends have been compared with congestion cases at select traffic black points due to such
observations. Good agreement has been found. The impacts as vast traffic amount, design faults of signal
temporal variations of traffic flow in the cross-harbour system and management.
tunnels and at the counting stations are reproduced by
the model at satisfactory level. Table 5
Using the simulated traffic flow and empirical vehicle Summary of correlation between hourly concentrations and traffic
emission factors, the hourly emission rates of CO, NOx emissions
and PM10 are predicted and compared with the Station CO NOx PM10
corresponding pollution concentrations at three air Causeway Bay 0.80 0.78 0.83
quality monitoring stations. It is found through Central 0.84 0.86 0.85
a correlation analysis that the two data sets are well Central/Western – 0.74 0.82
1188 L. Xia, Y. Shao / Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 1175–1188
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the Strategic Research
Grant of City University of Hong Kong (SRG7001254).
Traffic flow data were provided by the Transport
Department of Hong Kong and the air pollution data
were provided by the Environment Protection De-
partment of Hong Kong.
References
Ahlvik, P., Eggleston, S., GoriBen, N., Hassel, D., Hickman, A.J.,
Joumard, R., Ntziachristos, L., Rijkeboer, R., Samaras, Z.,
Zierock, K.H., 1997. COPERT II Computer Programme to
Calculate Emissions from Road Transport. Technical Report No.
6 of European Environment Agency (EEA).
Bachman, W., Sarasua, W., Hallmark, S., Guensler, R., 2000. Modeling
regional mobile source emissions in a geographic information
system framework. Transportation Research Part C 8, 205–229.
Bonzani, I., 2000. Hydrodynamic models of traffic flow: Drivers’
behaviour and nonlinear diffusion. Mathematical Computer
Modeling 31, 1–8.
Cohen, J., Cook, R., Bailey, C.R., Carr, E., 2004. Relationship
between motor vehicle emissions of hazardous pollutants, roadway
proximity, and ambient concentrations in Portland, Oregon.
Environmental Modelling & Software, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.
2004.04.002.
Daganzo, C.F., 1994. The cell transmission model: A dynamic
representation of highway traffic consistent with the hydrodynamic
theory. Transportation Research Part B 28 (4), 269–287.
D’Ans, G.C., Gazis, D.C., 1976. Optimal control of oversaturated
store- and forward transportation networks. Transportation
Science 10, 1–19.
De Angelis, E., 1999. Nonlinear hydrodynamic models of traffic flow
modeling and mathematical problems. Mathematical Computer
Modeling 29, 83–95.
Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong, 2000. Air
quality in Hong Kong 2000.
Jensen, S.S., Berkowicz, R., Hansen, H.S., Hertel, O., 2001. A Danish
decision-support GIS tool for management of urban air quality and
human exposures. Transportation Research Part D 6, 229–241.
Kerner, B.S., Konhauser, P., 1993. Cluster effect in initially
homogeneous traffic flow. Physical Review E 48 (4), R2335–R2338.
Kreyszig, E., 1988. Advanced Engineering Mathematics. John Wiley &
Sons, New York, pp. 1294.
Leutzbach, W., 1988. Introduction to the Theory of Traffic Flow.
Springer-Verlag.
Lighthill, M.J., Whiteman, G.B., 1955. On kinematic waves: II. A
theory of traffic on long crowed roads. Proceedings of the Royal
Society, London A 229, 281–345.
Lin, K., Niemeier, D., 1998. Using multivariate multiple regression
models to improve the link between air quality and travel demand
models. Transportation Research 3 (6), 375–387.
Lin, Min-Der, Lin, Yung-Chang, 2002. The application of GIS to air
quality analysis in Taichung City, Taiwan, ROC. Environmental
Modelling & Software 17 (1), 11–19.
Marasco, A., 2002. Nonlinear hydrodynamic models of traffic flow in
the presence of tollgates. Mathematical Computer Modeling 35
(5-6), 549–559.
Mensink, C., De Vlieger, I., Nys, J., 2000. An urban transport emission
model for the Antwerp area. Atmospheric Environment 34,
4595–4602.
Nagatani, T., 1998. Modified KdV equation for jamming transition in
the continuum models of traffic. Physica A 261, 599–607.
Newell, G.F., 1993. A simplified theory of kinematic waves in highway
traffic, Part II: Queuing at freeway bottlenecks. Transportation
Research Part B 27 (4), 289–303.
Papageorgiou, M., 1990. Dynamic modeling, assignment, and route
guidance in traffic networks. Transportation Research Part B 24
(6), 471–495.
Peeta, S., Yang, T.H., 2003. Stability issues for dynamic traffic
assignment. Automatica 39 (1), 21–34.
Peeta, S., Ziliaskopoulos, A.K., 2001. Foundations of dynamic traffic
assignment: The past, the present and the future. Networks and
Spatial Economics 1 (3/4), 233–266.
Prigogine, I., Herman, R., 1971. Kinetic Theory of Vehicular Traffic.
Elsevier, NewYork.
Reynolds, A.W., Broderick, B.M., 2000. Development of an emissions
inventory model for mobile sources. Transportation Research Part
D 5, 77–101.
Sarachik, P.E., Ozguner, U., 1982. On decentralized dynamic routing
for congested traffic networks. IEEE Transactions on Automatic
Control 27 (6), 1233–1238.
Salles, J., Janischewski, J., Jaecker-Voirol, A., Martin, B., 1996.
Mobile source emission inventory model application to Paris area.
Atmospheric Environment 30 (12), 1965–1975.
Sheffi, Y., 1985. Urban transportation networks: Equilibrium analysis
with mathematical programming methods. Prentice-Hall, NJ.
Transport Department, 2001. The Annual Traffic Census 2000. Hong
Kong.
Velan, S., Florian, M., 2002. A note on the Entropy solutions of the
hydrodynamic model of traffic flow. Transportation Science 36 (4),
435–446.
Wie, B.W., 1988. An application of optimal control theory to dynamic
user equilibrium traffic assignment. 67th Annual Meeting of
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January
11–15.
Wong, S.C., Wong, G.C.K., 2002. An analytical shock-fitting
algorithm for LWR kinematic wave model embedded with linear
speed–density relationship. Transportation Research B 36 (8),
683–706.
Ziliaskopoulos, A.K., 2000. A linear programming model for the single
destination system optimum dynamic traffic assignment problem.
Transportation Science 34 (1), 37–49.