BUSOGA UNIVERSITY

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE, RISK MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

IN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN SOUTH SUDAN

CASE OF BANK OF SOUTH SUDAN (BoSS).

By:-

DRUSILLA MANGOWA FORKEEY NYIRIWA

REG: BU0618BBA16J05

RESEARCH TOPIC SUBMITTED TO FACULTY OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

AND MANAGEMENT IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR
BACHELOR OF ARTS BBA DEGREE IN BANKING AND FINANCE BUSOGA
UNIVERSITY

AUGUST 2018
DECLARATION

I Drusilla Mangowa Forkeey Nyiriwa declare that I am the sole author of this dissertation, that
during the period of my study, I have not been registered for any other academic award or
qualification nor has any of the material been submitted wholly or partly for any other award.
This dissertation is a result of my own work and where other people’s research findings have
been used they are duly acknowledged.

Drusilla MangowaForkeeyNyiriwa

Signature……………………………….. Date………………………..

APPROVAL

This dissertation has been submitted for examination with my approval as a University
supervisor and m y signature is appended against the respective name below:

Signature………………………….. Date……………………

Mr.Ayuen Majok Joseph

Lecturer.
DEDICATION

This dissertation is dedicated my sincere love to you all to m y P a r e n t s , e n t i r e f a m i l y,

r e l a t i v e s a n d f r i e n d s . You are my rays of hope and without your guiding hands, financial
and moral assistance I would be Failed. You have been a catalytic force in my academic life.
Thank you for your tireless support.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

First and foremost, I would like to thank my dissertation advisor, Lecturer Mr.Ayuen Majok Joseph.

For the help, guidance, encouragement and understanding that he provided in all phases of this
study. It was a pleasure and an honour to have the opportunity to work with him.

I would like to convey special thanks to the members of my friends for their invaluable
suggestions and contributions to my thesis. I am also grateful to MrNyiriwa Glove for the
motivation and encouragement he provided in my academic life.

I would like to thank also my Aunt Susan Elizara for the help that she provided in different
stages of this study. I have special thanks to my friend Margret poni Modi for her support in
every aspect. She shared my stress and worries throughout the thesis. I am also grateful to the
members of Department of Economics at METU and my colleagues for the supportive and
friendly environment they provided.

I owe my deepest gratitude to my parents, Late Mum Verina Lagya Thank you for your endless
support and sacrifice since the beginning of my life. You have made all of your opportunities
available for me and your love has been always more than a spouse for me. She always provided
all of her support and help since when I did not come in existence.

Lastly, I need to thank to my baby in my belly for the incredible happiness and motivation that
he gave me during the last months of my thesis. The feeling to own you is unbelievable. Thanks
to God for giving you to us. We are waiting you with a great missing.
LIST OF ACRONYMS

ACBAfrican Commercial Bank.

BDS Business Development Services

BESSS; Business Environment Strengthening for South Sudan

BET Board of External Trade

BFIA Banking Financial Institution Act

BOSS Bank of South Sudan

BRELA Business Registration and Licensing Authority

CAMARTEC Centre for Agricultural Mechanization Rural Technology

CBN Central Bank of Nigeria

CRDB Co-operative and Rural Development Bank

EOTF Equal Opportunity Trust Fund

ESRF Economic and Social Research Foundation

FEDA Finance and Enterprises Development Agency

FINCA Foundation for International Community Assistance

Definitions of key terms

ABSTRACT

It is controversial in the literature whether depreciation of exchange rate is expansionary or

contractionary for the economy. The main aim of this thesis is to empirically examine the effect
of real exchange rate changes on economic growth. Firstly, the growth effects of real exchange
rate changes are investigated using a wide panel data set of countries. To this end, we apply not
only the conventional panel data estimation procedures but also panel co-integration and the
recent procedures taking into account the possible common correlated effects such as global
shocks. Secondly, given the importance of sectoral heterogeneity of the impact of real exchange
rates on the response of industrial production of Turkish manufacturing industry, the impact of
real exchange rate changes on imports, exports, and production of Turkish manufacturing
industry sub-sectors is examined taking into account also some sector-specific characteristics.
The results showed that depreciation of the real exchange rate is contractionary for developing
countries while real exchange rate changes have not any significant effect for developed
countries. Additionally, this contractionary effect for developing economies increases with the
degree of liability dollarization. Regarding the results of industry-level analysis, output growth of
industries is negatively affected from real depreciations whereas this negative effect is larger for
high and medium-high technology sectors. Additionally, this negative effect declines as the
export share of the sector increases and it rises as its import dependency increases.

Keywords: exchange rate, growth, common correlated effects, South Sudan manufacturing
industry, sectoral analysis.
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.0 Introduction

As a key relative price affecting the economy through many channels, the implications of real
exchange rate changes for economic growth have become a growing focus of attention in the
recent policy debate. One of the main reasons behind the increased attention on the growth
effects of real exchange rates is the growth experiences of East-Asian countries which have been
assessed as pursuing a successful export-led growth strategy maintaining a competitive and
stable exchange rate policy. The other factor is the financial effect of exchange rate movements
which mainly operates through private sector balance sheets due to the increased liability
dollarization in developing countries. Since this liability dollarization process often generates a
currency and maturity mismatch between the debt and revenues of the firms, depreciation of real
exchange rate tend to generate losses and thereby decline in economic activity.

According to the standard Mundell-Flemming model, currency depreciation is expansionary

through its expenditure switching effects between domestic and foreign goods.1 However,
contrary to the traditional view, New Structuralism School has provided several demand-side and
supply-side channels through which devaluations can have adverse effects on output.2 Severe
output losses and economic instability followed by the devaluations in East Asia and Latin
America in 1990s have led academics and policy makers to point out balance sheet effects as the
mechanism behind the output collapses.3 When a considerable amount of borrowing of firms is
risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss (or
impact) and the greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower
probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process
of assessing overall risk can be difficult, and balancing resources used to mitigate between risks
with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high loss but lower
probability of occurrence can often be mishandled. Intangible risk management identifies a new
type of a risk that has a 100% probability of occurring but is ignored by the organization due to a
lack of identification ability. For example, when deficient knowledge is applied to a situation, a
knowledge risk materializes. Relationship risk appears when ineffective collaboration occurs.
Process-engagement risk may be an issue when ineffective operational procedures are applied.
These risks directly reduce the productivity of knowledge workers, decrease cost-effectiveness.
1.1Background of the Study

Exchange-rate also is used as a means to control the behavior of a currency, such as by limiting
rates of inflation. However, in doing so, the pegged currency is then controlled by its reference
value. As such, when the reference value rises or falls, it then follows that the value(s) of any
currencies pegged to it will also rise and fall in relation to other currencies and commodities with
which the pegged currency can be traded. In other words, a pegged currency is dependent on its
reference value to dictate how its current worth is defined at any given time. In addition,
according to the Mundell–Fleming model, with perfect capital mobility, a fixed exchange rate
prevents a government from using domestic monetary policy in order to achieve macroeconomic
stability. In a fixed exchange-rate system, a country’s central bank typically uses an open market
mechanism and is committed at all times to buy and/or sell its currency at a fixed price in order
to maintain its pegged ratio and, hence, the stable value of its currency in relation to the
reference to which it is pegged. The central bank provides the assets and/or the foreign currency
or currencies which are needed in order to finance any payments imbalances.

Risk management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks (defined in as the
effect of uncertainty on objectives) followed by coordinated and economical application of
resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events or to
maximize the realization of opportunities. Risk management’s objective is to assure uncertainty
does not deflect the endeavor from the business goals. Risks can come from various sources
including uncertainty in financial markets, threats from project failures (at any phase in design,
development, production, or sustainment life-cycles), legal liabilities, credit risk, accidents,
natural causes and disasters, deliberate attack from an adversary, or events of uncertain or
unpredictable root-cause.

Economic growth: is the development between developing and developed countries gone
through phases that affected growth through changes in the labor force participation rate and the
relative sizes of economic sectors. The transition from an agricultural economy to manufacturing
increased the size of the sector with high output per hour (the high-productivity manufacturing
sector), while reducing the size of the sector with lower output per hour (the lower productivity
agricultural sector).
1.2 Statement of the Problem

Despite the large number of studies on the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth,
they generally consider aggregate country panel data ignoring industry-specific dynamics.
However, the reaction of manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors - as the main engine of
economic growth - to the changes in real exchange rate is highly crucial for the growth effects of
real exchange. The responses of exports and production of manufacturing industry sub-sectors
will be highly heterogeneous depending on their different characteristics such as export
orientation, import dependency, technology intensity and financial structure. For instance,
depreciation of real exchange rate is likely to be contractionary for internationally non-tradable
sectors or sectors with high import dependency ratios via trade and balance sheet impacts. The
responsiveness of export sectors, on the other hand, are basically determined by their real
exchange rate elasticity of exports and degree of liability dollarization. Real exchange rate
elasticity of trade tend to decline in sectors with high degrees of intra-industry trade and
vertically integrated sectors with high imported input ratios (Jones and Kierzkowski, 2001; Arndt
and Huemer, 2004; Kharroubi, 2011). The impact of real exchange rate changes on production
and international trade dynamics will also vary with technology intensity and product complexity
of industries. These features together determine how exports, imports and production of
individual sectors react to the movements of real exchange rate and the relative weights of these
industries in total manufacturing industry will determine the response of the whole economy.

1.3 Purpose of the Study

Purpose of the Study interned to establish the relationship between exchange rate and economic
growth in financial institution, and examine the relationship between risk management and
economic growth on financial institutions to determine the relationship between economic
growth on financial institutions and exchange rate and analysis the factor structure between
exchange rate, risk management economic growth on financial institutions and exchange rate.

1.4 Objective of the study

The general objectives of this study it to Carried out the implementation of Exchange rate, risk
management and economic growth on institutions in Bank of South Sudan-Juba
 1.5 Specific objectives of the Study

Being subparts of general objectives the specific objectives of the study:

i. To establish the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth in financial
institutions
ii. To examine the relationship between risk management and economic growth in financial
institutions
iii. To determine the factor relationship between exchange rate and risk management on
economic growth in financial institutions.

1.6 Research Questions:-

i. What is establishing the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth?
ii. What is the relationship between risk management and economic growth on financial
institutions?
iii. What is factor relationship between exchange rate and risk management on economic growth
in financial institutions?

1.6.1Scope and limitation of the study

1.7. Scope of the study

1.7 content scope

This study focused on the exchange rate and implementation of South Sudan Juba city
municipality even though the exchange rate is different in every type of organization.

In conducting this study the main problem which faced the study is in case of time and cost to
conduct the research (considering all case or conditions cost is needed for the purpose of
preparing interview transportation and questionnaires and for other expenses. The capacity of the
researcher is not sufficient enough.

1.7.2 geographical scope

1.7.3 time scope

1.8 Significance of the study

It is likely certain that some benefit would be derived from this study. Even if the South Sudan
Juba city ministry is the oldest organization, No sufficient study has been done regarding on this
research. So that the budgeting system assessment this research will be made to serve different
purpose. Contains or provide information most useful to management It helps the organization
officials by giving a recommendation to some existing problems which need some improvement
regarding budget preparation and budget implementation.
 1.9 Conceptual Framework

INDEPENDENT VARIABLE DV

EXHANGE RATE ECONOMIC GROWTH

 Reduction of Taxes income  Sustainable Growth

 Tax channel confused  Development Growth
 Decrease in investment  Growth in production
 Imported input cost  Real Exchange Rates
 Wage indexation  Improve the degree of
development

RISK MANAGEMENT

 Risk Avoidance
 Risk Detection
 Conducting economic
 Improve determinant of imports
 Distinguishes unanticipated
Description of Model

The researcher is to distinguish the variable in which exchange Rate is the Independent Variable
and risk management is the Dependent Variable, whereby economic growth of financial institutions is an
intervening variable to both. This conceptual framework is to explain and evaluate the relationship
between exchange Rates and risk management whereby it can identify factors that influences the
relationship between economic growth of financial institutions, to assess the relationship between
economic growth of financial institutionsand exchange Ratein South Sudan.
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF LITERATURE

2.0 Introduction

According to the conventional Keynesian open economy model, internal balance (full
employment and price stability) and external balance (current account compatible with long run
capital flows) can be maintained by two types of policies: expenditure-switching and
expenditure-reducing policies. Expenditure-switching policies affect the composition of
countries’ expenditure on tradable and non-tradable goods. Expenditure-reducing policies aim to
control aggregate expenditures. The exchange rate is the main instrument of the first type of
policies whereas monetary and fiscal policies are used as classical instruments of the second type
of policies.

2.1 Definition of Concepts

The traditional Mundell (1963)-Fleming (1962) model proposes that an increase in the exchange
rate (currency depreciation or devaluation) is expansionary assuming that the Marshall-Lerner
conditions are satisfied.3 Due to this standard textbook model, the depreciation of the exchange
rate boosts aggregate demand by encouraging exports and creating a substitution from imports to
domestic goods. This “orthodox” view is originated by the money-less Keynesian model of
Meade (1951) and it is extended by the monetary approach of Dornbusch (1973, 1986). Based on
this orthodox view, it is believed that by stimulating the export sector, real devaluations of the
currency help countries to avoid financial crisis and provide sustained growth. Introducing an

There was no serious controversy over the positive effects of devaluation on economic growth
until the late 1970s. However, the recessions that took place in some Latin American countries
which implement orthodox adjustment programs have raised the possibility that devaluations can
be in fact contractionary especially for developing countries. Some “structuralism” economists
proposed several theoretical reasons why, contrary to the traditional view, devaluations can be
contractionary and generate a decline in economic growth. These authors stressed mainly the
negative real balance effects, income distribution effects and supply-side effects of devaluation
which are ignored by orthodox view of devaluation.
2.2 The relationship between Exchange Rate and economic growth

2.2.1 Exchange rate:

Diaz-Alejandro (1963) and Cooper (1971) are among the first who suggest that devaluations can
be contractionary for developing countries. The advocators of this contractionary devaluation
hypothesis provided some theoretical channels through which real devaluations can negatively
affect economic activity. These channels can be divided into three categories: demand side
channels, supply side channels and balance sheet channel. The first two channels are the ones
which are emphasized by the earliest supporters of contractionary devaluation mechanism. The
last one, balance sheet channel, emerged subsequent to the previous two channels stressing
mainly the financial effect of real exchange rate depreciation. We can summarize these channels

 Reduction of Taxes income

The increases in price of traded goods relative to non-traded goods after devaluation will
increase the general price level which will cause the real money balances to fall. The eventual
impact on real income depends on whether traded goods have a higher share in consumption or
in income. The larger the share of traded goods in consumption, the larger the fall in real income
so the fall in expenditures (Bruno, 1979; Hanson, 1983). Besides, if there is a trade deficit in the
economy, the increase in traded goods prices immediately reduce real income at home and
increase it abroad which reduces aggregate demand (Krugman and Taylor, 1978).

 Tax channel confused

If there are advolarem taxes on exports and imports, since the value of exportable and importable
goods increase after a devaluation, tax revenue of the government will increase. This means an
income transfer from private sector to the public sector. This will induce a reduction in aggregate
demand since the marginal propensity to consume of public sector is lower than the marginal
propensity to consume of private sector (Krugman and Taylor, 1978).

 Decrease in investment
New investment in developing countries requires imported capital goods. Since a real
depreciation will raise the price of capital in terms of domestic goods, new investments will fall
leading to a decline in aggregate demand (Branson, 1986; Buffie, 1986). 11

 Imported input cost

When inputs for manufacturing are largely imported and cannot be substituted easily by
domestic production, real depreciations will increase the costs of inputs. This negative effect on
production due to higher input prices can outweigh the positive effect that result from higher
relative prices of traded goods (Bruno, 1979; van Winjbergen, 1986).

 Wage indexation

If nominal wages are indexed to current prices in the economy, such an increase in wages can
induce adverse supply effects (van Winjbergen, 1986; Hanson, 1983; Edwards, 1986)

iii. Cost of working capital: In case of devaluation, since the real balances will decline, real
volume of credit in the market decreases and interest rates tend to rise. This will negatively affect
the cost of production and the quantity supplied (van Winjbergen, 1986; Bruno, 1979).

2.3 The relationship between risk management and economic Growth

2.3.1 Risk management:

Contractionary devaluation hypothesis have intensively been discussed through its demand side
and supply-side channels beginning from 1960s and the balance sheet channel since 1990s. With
the successful experiences of East Asian countries like China, India and South Korea in recent
years, some additional channels have emerged through which real exchange rate depreciations
affect growth positively. The “Productivity” channel and the “Capital Accumulation” channel are
the two mechanisms as referred in Montiel and Serven (2008). These channels are also

 Risk Avoidance

Emphasized by some recent studies on the growth effects of real exchange rate. The productivity
channel is not new in the literature but it has drawn interest in recent years. Since learning by
doing externalities and technology and skill spillovers are higher and faster in traded goods
sector than in non-traded goods sector. It is also discussed in Dutch Disease literature in 1980s.
See van Winjbergen, 1984; Krugman, 1987; Troika, 2001 among others. 14
the expansion of traded goods sector will increase productivity and growth (Balassa, 1964; Hahn
and Matthews, 1964). Depreciation of the real exchange rate shifts production from non-traded
to traded goods therefore contributes to the productivity growth by expanding the tradable sector.
Rodrik (2008) proposes that developing countries can achieve higher growth by increasing the
profitability of their tradable sector. According to Rodrik (2008), tradable sector is special
because it suffers disproportionately from institutional weaknesses and market failures. An
undervalued real exchange rate can therefore be used as a second-best policy to reduce these
distortions, increase profits in the sector and accelerate growth.

 Risk Detection

Upadhyaya and Upadhyay (1999) examine the effects of risk detection on output for four East
Africans countries, South Sudan,Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya. They employed a reduced model
for output consisting of government consumption, money supply and terms of trade as the
explanatory variables. Their results show that for almost all countries devaluation does not have
any significant positive effect on output growth either in the short run, medium run or long run.
One exception is Philippines for which real devaluation has expansionary effects in short and
medium term. Similarly, Bahmani-Oskooee, Chomsisengphet and Kandil (2002) investigate
short run and long run response of real output to real devaluations in South Sudan, Uganda,
Ethiopia and Kenya. Conducting integration and error correction approach, they examine the
short run and long run dynamics of output in these five Asian economies. Their models provide
mixed results as real depreciations are found to be contractionary for Indonesia and Malaysia in
the long run, while they are expansionary for Philippines and Thailand. Korea’s real output does
not significantly respond to real exchange rate. Kim and Ying (2007) compare the effects of
currency
Devaluations in seven East African countries, along with two Latin American countries, Mexico
and Chile. They conduct both bivariate Granger Causality analysis and a multivariate Vector
Autoregressive Regression (VAR) Model. In order to account for the structural break in the
series due to 1997 financial crises, they distinguished pre-1997 period in their analysis. Their
results show differences according to the period used. In pre-1997 period, devaluation is not
contractionary for East Asian countries while it is strongly contractionary for Mexico and Chile.
However, for the whole period, devaluation is contractionary for Latin American countries but
also for some East Africans countries. Real devaluations are observed to be associated with
economic contractions whereas real appreciations are followed by expansions in Mexico over the
past decades. Kamin and Rogers (2000) examine whether this negative correlation between real
depreciations and real output is robust empirically when some possible factors such as reverse
causation, spurious correlation with third factors and temporary contractionary effects of
devaluation are controlled for. Using a Granger Causality analysis and a VAR model, they
conclude that even after accounting for spurious correlation and reverse causation; devaluation of
the real exchange rate is inflationary and leads to the contraction of output in Mexico.

Bahmani-Oskooee and Kandil (2008) evaluate the effects of exchange rate depreciation on
output growth for a sample of fourteen MENA countries. By applying co integration and error
correction modeling, they differentiated the growth effects of deprecation in the short run and
long run. They also distinguish the anticipated and unanticipated components of real exchange
rate. Their results indicate that anticipated depreciation is expansionary for Bahrain, Oman,
Saudi Arabia, Syria and Tunisia but contractionary for Lebanon and Libya in the long run.
Unanticipated depreciation has no expansionary effect in the long run while it is only evident in
the short run. In contrast, it has a contractionary effect in Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar in the long
run. There are only a few studies which examine the effect of real exchange rates on output in
Turkey. Berument and (2003), conducting a VAR analysis.

 Conducting faster economic improvement

Some earlier studies estimated the real exchange rate elasticity of exports and imports in Turkey.
These studies generally provided mixed results. Some authors support the traditional view that
real exchange rate depreciations expand exports and decline imports therefore provides an
improvement in the trade balance. Akbostance (2004) estimates the effect of real exchange rate
changes on Turkey’s trade balance by utilizing from a vector error correction model (VECM).
According to her results, real exchange rate is the main factor influencing the trade balance. The
author also suggests that trade balance improves in response to real exchange rate depreciations
in the long run while the results do not support J-curve hypothesis in the short run. Neyaptıet al.
(2007) estimates export and import functions in order to investigate the effect of Customs Union
(CU) on Turkey’s trade. They show that real depreciations are positively correlated with exports
and negatively correlated with imports as traditional theory predicts. Their results also indicate
that the effect of real exchange rate on export to European Union countries is stronger after the
CU whereas real exchange rate changes are no longer a significant determinant of imports after
CU agreement.

 Improve determinant of imports

According to Togan and Berument (2007) exports and imports give traditional responses to real
exchange rate changes and the Marshall-Lerner conditions hold as the absolute values of the
elasticity of exports and imports sum up to more than unity.

The earliest empirical studies which investigate the effects of real devaluations on economic
growth generally focused on a number of devaluation episodes. Since these studies examine the
position of some macroeconomic variables of countries before and after these devaluation
episodes, this empirical approach is referred to as “Before-After Approach”. Cooper (1971) is
possibly the earliest study that examines .Agenor (1991) analyzes the effect of real exchange rate
changes on output for a group of 23 countries over the period 1978-87. His empirical analysis is
based on an output equation explicitly derived from a rational expectations macro-model with
imported intermediate goods.

 Distinguishes unanticipated

He distinguishes the effects of anticipated and unanticipated effects of real depreciations. By

applying fixed effects estimation technique to his panel data sample, he provides evidence that
an anticipated depreciation of RER has a negative impact on output, while an unanticipated
depreciation has a positive effect. Contrary to the results of Edwards (1986), the contractionary
effect of unanticipated depreciation remains significant even after a year. That is, he proposes
that depreciation is not neutral but continue to be contractionary in the medium to long run.
Regarding the differences in the estimation results with Edwards (1986), Agenor (1991)
emphasizes the importance of appropriate specification of the output equation and the adequate.
Morley (1992) conducts a cross-section study on the effect of real devaluations on capacity
utilization during stabilization programs in least developed countries. He shows that devaluations
reduce output, but it takes at least 2 years to have the full effect. Moreover, by checking the
change in the share of private and total consumption and fixed investment in GDP, he shows that
the recessions due to devaluations are not caused by a rise in saving, but instead by a sharp fall in
investment.

Ahmed, Gust, Kamin and Huntley (2003) investigate whether the devaluations under fixed
exchange rate regimes and depreciations under floating exchange rate regimes are similarly
destructive for the economy.

2.4 The factor relationship between exchange rate and risk management on economic
growth in financial institutions

2.4.1 Economic growth:

Developing countries generally have to abandon their pegged exchange rate regime in case of
devaluation since governments run out of their reserves. This abandonment of exchange rate
policy leads to a decline in the confidence of investors, a sharp capital outflow and economic
contraction.

 Sustainable Growth

Therefore, it is not clear whether devaluation itself have led to adverse outcomes, or rather the
abandonment of pegged exchange rate regimes after devaluations. The negative consequences of
devaluation under pegged exchange rate regimes may not be observed in case of normal
depreciations under floating exchange rate regimes. For this purpose, Ahmed et al. (2003)
estimate VAR models to compare the responses to devaluation of developing economies which
consist of Latin American and East Asian countries that are altered between fixed and floating
exchange rate regimes and two types of industrial economies those that have consistently floated,
and those that have sustained fixed exchange rate regimes as well. They define fundamental
depreciation as the percent deviation of the equilibrium REER from the observed pre-crisis real
effective exchange rate.
  Development Growth

Overshooting is the additional depreciation above and beyond fundamental depreciation.

Cespedes (2005) analyzes 82 large devaluation episodes for a set of middle income and
developed countries during the period of 1980-2001. He interacts Economic Growth with
external debt to capture balance sheet effects. His findings support that balance sheet effect has a
significant negative effect on output, while there is also A few studies examine the balance sheet
effect of real depreciations using cross-country panel data methods. By incorporating interaction
terms to their panel data growth model, Bebczuk, Galindo and Panizza (2006) evaluate whether
foreign currency denominated debt is important for the effect of real depreciation on growth.
Based on a sample of 57 countries (35 developing, 22 industrial) for the period of 1976-2003,
they find that in countries with no dollarization, a 20 percent real devaluation increases per capita
GDP growth by approximately half of a percentage point.

 Growth in production

As dollarization increases, the expansionary effect of devaluations diminishes. When the dollar
denominated external debt exceeds 84 percent of GDP, devaluations become contractionary.
Similarly, Bleaney and Vargas (2009) analyze the relationship between net capital inflows, real
exchange rate movements and growth for twenty emerging markets and twelve developed
countries over the period 1985–2004. In order to examine valuation effects that arise from
foreign indebtedness, they constructed a debt-weighted real exchange rate. Their results show
that real exchange rate depreciations tend to be contractionary in emerging markets, whereas
they are expansionary in developed countries and this finding is not only valid for crisis periods.
They also point out that the debt-weighted real effective exchange rate rather than the trade-
weighted one is associated with the contractionary devaluation hypothesis which indicates that it
is the result of valuation effects on foreign debt. Blecker and Razmi (2008) test the twin
hypotheses-Fallacy of Composition (FOC) and Contractionary Devaluation empirically, utilizing
from a data of 18 developing.

 Real Exchange Rates

Over the past several decades, some developing countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Hong
Kong, Singapore and China have been performing high growth rates by promoting their
manufactured exports. Their export-led growth strategy based on stable and cheap currency
policy has drawn the attention of policy-makers and it has begun to be discussed again that
maintaining a competitive or undervalued real exchange rate can foster economic growth.
Beginning with Rodrik (2008), some other authors argued that developing countries can achieve
high and sustainable growth rates such as these East-African countries by pursuing an
undervalued currency policy. Rodrik (2008) provides empirical evidence for the positive growth
effects of real exchange rate undervaluation for a panel data sample of countries.

 Improve the degree of development

 2.5 conclusion literature review
Using this Balassa-Samuelson adjusted index of undervaluation, Rodrik (2008) estimates panel
data growth models for developing and developed countries by adopting Fixed Effects (FE) and
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators. His results show that undervaluation of
currency stimulates economic growth especially for developing countries. He argues that the
main mechanism behind this result is the tradable sector that, by increasing the profitability of
the tradable sector which suffers disproportionately from the institutional weaknesses and market
failures, undervaluation of the real exchange rate facilitates economic growth in developing
countries. Woodford (2009) heavily criticizes Rodrik (2008) mainly due to his undervaluation
index, as the use of this index exaggerates the strength and the robustness of the effect of real
exchange rate on growth. According to Woodford (2009), there is no need to adjust for the B-S
effect because the panel growth regression of Rodrik (2008) already includes country fixed
effects which accounts for the differences in the real exchange rate levels of countries due to the
per capita income differences.
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.

3.0 Introduction

This chapter discusses the research design, study population, sample size, sampling methods and
techniques, sources of data collection and methodologies used in the research as the strategic
tools to utilize the solely objectives of the research. This chapter also focuses on the validations
and the reliability of the research institution which includes the data analysis and data
processing, ethicality of the consideration and finally this section covers the limitations and the
elucidations to the given problem.

3.1 THE RESEARCH DESIGN:

Research design is a master plan specifying the methods and procedures for collecting and
analyzing the data needed. It is a frame work that plans the actions for the research project, as
well as to guide us in solving problems.

Quantitative research has been used to conducts this research study due to the large number of
respondents who participated and where evidence is evaluated and hypotheses are generated.

This chapter also presents the analysis in reference to the objectives in chapter one arrangement
and then relating to literature review for each objective point of view. Or the research data has
been analyzed using both analytical and descriptive and content analysis.

As a quantitative study, a researcher need to distribute the questionnaires to the respondents to

make conclusion .according to Zikmudet al (20I0) data is collected by using structure form
causal research form and results which are objective and less researcher observe involved.

In addition the research covered a wider population thus both quantitative and qualitative method
is used. Qualitative method is used to gain an understanding of underlying reasons, opinions and
motivations.
It provides insights in to the problem or helps to develop ideas or hypotheses for potential
qualitative research. Qualitative research is also used to uncover trends in thought and opinions,
and dive deeper in to the problem.

Qualitative data collection methods vary using unstructured or semi-structured techniques. Some
common methods include focus groups (group discussion), individual interviews, and
participation/observation.

The sample side is typically small, and respondents are selected to fulfill a given quota. But the
quantitative method is better than qualitative method. Quantitative research is used to quantify
the problem by way of generating numerical data or data can be transformed into useable
statistic.

It is used to quantify attitudes opinions, behaviors, and other defined variables and generalize
results from a large sample population. Quantitative research used measureable data to formulate
facts and uncover patterns in research quantitative data collection methods are much more
structured than qualitative data collection methods. Quantitative data collection methods
includes, various forms of surveys on line surveys, paper surveys, mobile surveys and kiosk
surveys, face-to- face interviews, telephone interviews, longitudinal studies website interceptors,
online polls and systemic observations.

Snap survey software is the ideal solution for a quantitative research tool where structured
techniques such as large numbers of respondents and descriptive findings are required.

Snap surveys soft ware has many robust features that will help your organization effectively
gather and analyze quantitative data.

3.2 STUDY POPULATION:

Defining the target population is the first step of the sampling design. Target population is how
the vital characteristic of the population respond to the question in this research.

Target population is very important in this research because, it has well- defined the volume of
sampling and group which involved in the research. In this research the target population is the
traders who are working in you market in Wau state.
3.3 SAMPLING DESIGN:
Sample is a subset where every item in population has the same probability of being in the
sample. Or a sample is a subset containing the characteristics of a large population. Samples are
used in statistical testing when population sizes are too large for the test to include all possible
members or observation.

A sample should present the whole population and not reflect bias toward a specific attribute.
Thus, a researcher uses the sampling method to collect more related information to develop and
improve the decision making for the research.

This is because it is hard accumulate all the information from the whole population as it’s too
large. However a researcher must always deliberate for the techniques which can diminish the
error that might be occurring in sampling process.

3.4 SAMPLING METHOD/TECHNIQUES

Data collection is an important aspect of any types of research study. In accurate data collection
can impact the results of a study and ultimately lead to invalid results.

Data can be defined as the quantitative and qualitative values of a variable. Data is also a
collection of facts, such as numbers images, wards, measurements, figures, observations or even
just description of things.

Data itself can be understood and to get information from the data one must interpret it into
meaningful information. Therefore, there are two methods of collecting data. Data sources are
broadly classified into primary and secondary data.

3.5 SOURCES OF DATA

Researchers need to consider the sources on which to base the findings of their research.
In order to achieve the objectives of a study, researchers can use either primary or secondary
Sources or use both.
3.5.1 PRIMARY DATA:
Primary data refers to the data which are collected by investigator conducting the research. It is
also refers to the data collected by the researcher themselves. This kind of data is new, original
research information.

Primary data is that data which are collected by sociologists themselves during their own
research tools such as experiments, survey, questionnaires, interviews and observation. Primary
data can take a quantitative or statistical form, for example charts, graphs, diagrams, and tables.

It is essential to interpret and evaluate this type of data with care. In particular look at how the
data is organized in term of scale. It is organized into percentages hundreds, thousands etc, is it a
snapshot of a particular year or is it focusing on trends across a number of year.

Primary data can also be qualitative, for instance extracts from the conversations of those being
studied. Some researchers present their arguments virtually entirely in the words of their subject
matter. Consequently the data speaks for itself and readers are encouraged to make their own
judgment.

Primary sources enable the researcher to get as close as possible to what actually happened and
is hands on. A primary source reflects the individual view point of a participant or observer.
Primary data are first hand information from a person who witnessed or participated in an event.

Examples of primary data are:

3.5.2 SECONDARY DATA:

Secondary data is a data that was collected by someone other than user. Secondary source is used
by a person not present at the event and relaying on primary source documents for information.
Secondary data usually analyses and interprets the finding of the research that already exists will
help from new research.

Common sources of secondary data for social sciences includes censuses, information collected
by government departments, organizational records and data that was original collected for other
research purposes.
Secondary data analysis can save time that would otherwise be spent on collecting data and,
particularly in the case of quantitative data can provide larger and higher quality data bases that
would be unfeasible for any individual researcher to collect on their own.

In addition, analyst of social and economic change considers secondary data essential since it is
impossible to conduct a new survey that can adequately capture past change and or
developments.

However secondary data analysis can be less useful in marketing research as data may be
outdated or inaccurate. So secondary data can be obtained from different sources, and it includes:

 Information collected through censuses or government departments like housing social

security electoral statistics and tax records.
 Books in the library/ magazines
 Progress reports

3.6 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

3.6.1 DIRECT OBSERVATIONS

The source of data for Phase 1 research mainly comes from the observation made by the
researcher. The understanding of actual financial institution, risk management and Economic
growth implementation and the diverse perspectives existing in the case is achieved through both
observing and participating.
Participant observation is a type of research strategy and a widely used methodology in many
disciplines. Observing and participating are integral to understanding the breadth and
complexities of research questions. Its aim is to gain a close and intimate familiarity with a given
group of individuals and their activities or practices through an intensive involvement with
people in their natural environment, usually over an extended period of time (Mack et al., 2005).
Participant observation as a distinctive research method allows us to approach participants in
their own environment rather than having the participants come to us. Participant observation is
also used in this research to gain an understanding of the contexts in which the chosen case
exists; the relationships among and between people, contexts, ideas and events; and people’s
behaviours and activities – what they do and how they do it. In addition, this method enables us
to develop a familiarity with the cultural milieu that will prove invaluable throughout this
research project. Data collected from participant observation provides valuable context for
understanding the data collected through other methods. Thus, what we learn from participant
observation can help us not only to understand data collected through other methods (such as
interviews, focus groups, and quantitative research methods), but also help to understand the
phenomenon being studied.

3.6.2 INTERVIEWS

There are two types of interviews, which are personal interview and telephone interview.
Personal interview involves one person interviewing another person for detailed information.
This is because the interviewers could ask a lot of questions and could bring about additional
observations about the respondent such as stress and body language. Also it demands a lot of
administrative planning and supervision which can lead to the interviewer being biased.
The type of interview conducted for the study was a face to face interview which was one on
one. The interview was generally conducted around the research objectives set for the study. The
aim was to obtain as much information as possible needed for the study. The information varied
from strategies the bank had in place to the team’s personal response to customer relationship
marketing.

3.6 QUESTIONNAIRES.

According Cooper and Schlinder (2011), the questionnaire is the most common data collection
instrument in marketing research. Questionnaires provide a relatively cheap, quick and efficient
way of obtaining large amounts of information from a large sample of people. Data can be
collected relatively quickly because the researcher would not need to be present when the
questionnaires were completed. This is useful for large populations when interviews would be
impractical (McLeod, 2014). A self-completion structured questionnaire with closed questions
was developed for the Study. A structured questionnaire consists of well-formulated questions
and fixed response alternatives that are directly related to the research objectives. Bryman and
Bell (2015) posit that closed questions have some advantages as it is easy to process answers; it
enhances the comparability of answers and makes them easier to show the relationship between
variables. The study adopts a five-point Linkert scale in calibrating the responses of the
respondents.

3.7 VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY OF RESEARCH

According to Burns & Burns (2008), validity refers to the appropriateness of the measure to
access the variable it claims to measure. Thus, validity explains whether the measuring
instrument is actually measuring what it is supposed to measure. Construct validity was used to
detect how well the results obtained using the measuring instrument fit theoretical expectations
(Hair et al., 2014). To check the validity of the measuring instrument, the study used the factor
loadings which are explained in the subsequent chapter. Again, the validity of the measuring
instrument was ascertained via convergent and discriminated validity (Hair et al., 2014).
Discriminant validity shows the extent of which a construct is different from other constructs
(Rezaei & Ghodsai, 2014). Discriminant validity ensures that the items that measure a construct
is unique in serving as an indicator to the construct (Hair et al., 2014). Thus, it does not relate
more to other constructs than to the construct it is meant to measure. It is indicated by the low
correlation between the measure of interest and the measures of another construct (Cheung &
Lee, 2010).
Reliability can be explained as the consistency, stability and credibility of the study findings that
allows the findings to be reproduced (Burns & Burns 2008). For the purposes of the study,
Cronbach alpha and composite reliability were used to determine the reliability of the research
instrument (Cooper & Schlinder, 2006). Cronbach Alpha can be described as a statistical
measure used to test reliability in questionnaires (Ryu & Smith-Jackson, 2006).
Burns and Burns (2008) added that the Cronbach alpha is used for scale data to determine if the
items used in the questionnaire are measuring the same variable. Nunnally and Bernstein
(1994) argue that generally, the acceptable lower limit for Cronbach alpha correlation coefficient
is 0.70. However, Malhotra (2006) added that the Cronbach Alpha could be lowered to 0.60 with
regard to explorative research.
3.8 D ATA ANALYSIS AND PROCESSING

According to Collis and Hussey (2013), research can be classified under process explains
whether a research is either quantitative or qualitative.
Boateng (2014) makes a distinction between two research criteria, namely qualitative and
quantitative research.
Boateng (2014) explain further that the focus of qualitative research is to explore a phenomenon.
Similarly, Hancock, Ockleford, and Windridge (2009) explain that qualitative research focuses
studies Behaviour in natural settings or uses people's accounts as data; which usually involves no
Manipulation of variables.
According to Boateng (2014), quantitative research seeks to determine the quantity or extent
of a problem or the existence of a relationship between aspects of a phenomenon by Quantifying
the variation.
Measures in quantitative studies are often systematically created before data collection is
standardized. The objective of quantitative is to test the hypothesis that he researcher generates
(Malhotra & Birks, 2007). According to Rootman (2011), quantitative research is used when the
population is large and objectivity is of the utmost importance.
In this study, quantitative research method was used to obtain responses from the respondents
A review of literature on RM has revealed an extensive use of quantitative research technique in
data analysis (Ryals, 2005; Ndubisi & Wah, 2005, Narteh, 2009; Roberts-Lombard, 2011).

3.9 ETHICAL CONSIDERATION

Malhotra and Birks (2007) argue that issue of ethics is an imperative consideration in academic
research. Blaxter, Hughes, and Tight (2010) identify that the common cause of ethical issue in
research is as a result of conflict interest between the researcher and the respondents. Basic
principles of ethical practice comprise of consent of respondents, respect of autonomy, maintain
anonymity and confidentiality. In order to observe these principles, the researcher made sure that
respondents gave their informed consent before administering the questionnaire.
This means the participants should agree to take part in the research before they take part. The
respondents were made aware of what they were required to do in respect to filling the
questionnaire. Also, an information preamble was provided at the beginning of the questionnaire
to provide details about the researcher, the research topic and the purpose of the study.
In order to prevent respondents hurriedly answering the questions, the researcher only targeted
those who had ample time to fill the questionnaire. This accorded the respondents the
opportunity to read thoroughly before filling the questionnaire.

3.10 LIMITATION OF STUDY

The purpose of this study has been constrained by certain factors that invariably limited the scope of
the study as well as its representativeness. Time has been a critical factor in the conduct of this study.
And collecting data on the exchange rate, risk management has been a cumbersome game to the
researcher because secondary data is scare.
Financial constrains is also one of the major obstacles of the study. This is very critical in the study.
The resources needed to make this study purely successful are the fact that the various methods and
modes of conducting this research must be financially resourced.
The instruments used to conduct the research also could not favor the less literate as the
questionnaire answering needs literate respondents to answer.
The other mode of the limitation is the language barriers, since the questionnaires are in English and
to translate to other local languages changes the meaning and scope of the questionnaire which made
the researcher to carefully scrutinize the data and makes the work to be tedious and time consuming.

3.11 SOLUTIONS TO THE FACED LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY.

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

4.0 Introduction

This chapter presents analyses, discusses and interpretation of the findings for the study on the
Financial accountability, public sector performance and Services delivery in South Sudan

4.1. Demographics of Respondents

4.1.1 Findings on Gender composition of respondents

Table 4.1 Gender composition of respondents

Age Frequency Percent

Male 95 60

Female 85 45

Total 180 100

From the findings in table 4.1 above shows the majority of respondents are male (55%) and (45
%) represent female of 180 respondents, this implies that the highest percentage is represented
by male in the ministry of humanitarian affairs in South Sudan.
4.1.2 Findings on Age bracket of respondents

Table 4.2 Age bracket of respondents

Frequency Percentage

Less than 24 years 20 11.1

Between 25-30 years 40 22.2

Between 31-35 years 70 38.9

Between 36-40years 22 12.2

Above 40years 28 15.6

Total 180 100

Source: primary data

Findings in table 4.2 indicated that majority of the respondents were 38.9% which were between
the age bracket of 31 to .35 years, followed by 22.2% with the age of 25-30 years, 15.6% above
40 years, and 11.1% less than 24 years. This implies that there were adequate representation of
the study population and data provided represented the views of age groups.

4.1.3 Findings on education Level

Table 4.3 Level of education

Frequency percentage

Postgraduate 15 8.3

Degree 80 44.4

Diploma 65 36.1

Certificate 12 6.7
 Others 8 4.4

Total 180 100

Source: primary data

From table 4.3, majority of the respondents 44.4% were degree holders and 36.1 %) were
diploma holder. This implies that the staffs have at least a minimum level of education which
makes the work easier for the management of ministry of finance.

4.1.4Findings on period worked for organization

Table 4.4 period worked for the organization

Frequency percent

Less than 1 year 35 19.5

Between 1-5years 90 50

More than 5 years 55 30.5

Total 180 100

Source: primary data

Table 4.4, clearly shows that the biggest percentage of 50% have worked for a period of 1 to 5
years in the South Sudan financial Dept, 30.5% for more than 5 years, 19.5% for less than one
year. This may imply that they are aware of current changes in the exchange rate.

4.1.5 Findings on Regression Analysis

Table 4.5 the Spearman Zero order correlation matrix

1 2 3
Financial accountability (1) 1.000 70.5

Public Sector performance (2) 750** 1.80 56.5

Services Delivery (3) 500** 650** 50.5

Source: primary data

Spearman correlation was used to determine the relationship between the Study variablesas
shows in the table 4.5 above:

Table 4.5 the Regression Analysis relationship between Exchange Rate, Risk Management
and Economic growth of financial institutions

The result in table 4.5 indicated a significant strongly positive relationship between Exchange
Rate, Risk Management and Economic growth of financial institutions (r=0.750,p-Value <
00.01).this implies that exchange rate has a significant relationship exist between Economic
growth financial institutionsin Bank of South Sudan particular improvement of money grams.
Thus, the question of how Exchange Rate has a relationship with Economic growth of financial
institutions in Bank of South Sudan was answered as true. The implication of these finding is
that without financial accountability in place the performance of Bank of South Sudan will be
affected in South Sudan.

4.6 regression analysis for Exchange Rate, Risk Management and Economic growth
financial institutions

Table 4.6 below shows the regression model for Exchange Rate, Risk Management and
Economic growth financial institutions Council in South Sudan

Exchange Rate Unstandardized Standardized

Coefficients Coefficients
 B Std.Error Beta Std.Error T

Sig

Risk Management 2.719 .131 20.705 .000

.184 .058 .347 .115 3.023 .003

Economic growth Financial .289 .089 .456 .132 3.462 001

institutions

R=0.869- Square=0.755,adjustedR-Square=0.751,F=0.595,Sig0.593

Source: Primary data (2017)

The result in the table 4.6 above indicated a linear relationship between exchange rate, risk
management and economic growth of financial institutions(F=0.595Sig =0.593). Exchange rate,
risk management and economic growth of financial institutions in Bank of South Sudan risk
management(Beta=0.456).Explained more to economic growth of financial institutions and
exchange rate(Beta 0.349).This implies that risk management and Exchange rate entirely
influenced the economic growth of financial institutions in Bank of South Sudan

4.7 The factor Structures of Exchange rate

This research used factor loadings in order to check how much a variable loads into its
corresponding factor. The figure below showed factor loading of each items.Straurb, (2009)
suggested that the value of each item in factor loading should be at least 0.50 into its relative
principal component.
Variable Attributes Reductio Tax Decrease in Imported
n of channel investment input cost
Taxes confused
income

It is for the purpose of organizing revenue and .952

expense. And limited use of fund for no benefits

Such that to handle financial process of transaction .956

for only one account

is to evaluate the issues concerning financial .919

department

Is to Allocate the proper budget for the year and for .865
the benefits of public in development.

; is for the purpose of organizing revenue and .873

expense transaction for only one account

The purpose of organizing and take full .872

responsibility in any institution and firms

Setting of financial monitoring also is another

element of maintaining finance.

Variable Attributes .857

Is preferable to measure performance in terms of .775

outputs

In public management, it implies the citizen .963

sovereignty.

The obligation by government agencies to be .935

sensitive to citizen expectations and to attempt to
satisfy their needs.

It is the obligation to ensure performance of .939

certain duties or actions. It is the obligation that
mandated organs of government.

It connotes to openness in government actions .535

and decision-making.

It calls for openness about decisions and greater .937

access to information about an authority’s
activities as a strategy to counteract corruption.

It is the extent to which an activity’s stated .875

objectives are achieved.
It describes the relationship between intended .885
impact and the actual impact on an activity.

Eigen value 1.605 1.589 1.503 .513

Variance % 41.333 38.749 23.458 12.385

Cumulative% 41.333 81.092 94.65 .98.47

Source: Primary data (2017)

The factor loading in table 4.7 above shows how the factor loadings do confirm that financial
accountability is measured by Reduction of Taxes income, Tax channel confused, Decrease in
investment and imported input cost. as hypothesized in conceptual framework (Figure 1.1).The
table shows the factor analysis results of exchange rate three factor were extracted and the
attributes (Reduction of Taxes income) explained financial accountability better with 95.1% the
second attributes (Tax channel confused)Explained more of financial accountability system with
92.5% the third attributes(Decrease in investment) explained public sector performance with
88.9%

The factor analysis Reduction of Taxes income under exchange rate explained that the exchange
rate has improved in terms of operations and distributions
4.7.1 Factor analysis results of Risk Management

Table 4.7.1 factor loading of Risk Management

Variable Attributes Risk Risk Conductin prove Disting

Avoidance Detection g determina uished
economic nt of unantici
improvem imports pated
ent

is the analysis in the matter of real .862

importance formational
governments and public policy

The volume of public debt as a . 879

result of crossing the period of
financial crisis. This public Sector
performance

The issue is not only present, but .894

also covers a longer time horizon
given the debt burden caused by the
public duty

That accumulated on the future .952

public budgets and on future
generations. Public sector

The analysis framework of the .965

public sector performances.
The analysis framework of the 972
public sector performances.

It is the measurement of the .896

economy of resources.

Source: Primary data (2017)

Variable Attributes .896

It means being receptive to community .947

problems, needs, and views.

Take the appropriate action to deal with .899

them in a cost-effective way.

In public management, it implies the .799

citizen sovereignty and the obligation by
government.

Agencies to be sensitive to citizen .896

expectations and to attempt to satisfy their
needs. According to Fox and Meyer
(1995: 113),
it is a criterion according to which an .789
alternative is recommended if it results in
the satisfaction of the express needs.

The preferences or values of citizen are .793

thus responsive administration.

It is a moral concept in public .831

administration inasmuch as Public sector
performance Address it.

Eigen value 1.161 1.005 .651 .989

Variance % 32.871 28.454 18.431 16.534

Cumulative% 32.871 61.325 79.756 81.597

Source: Primary data (2017)

The results in table 4.7.1 above shows how the factor calculating do confirm that public sector
performance is measured by Risk Avoidance,Risk Detection, Conducting economic
improvement, prove determinant of imports and Distinguished unanticipated as hypothesized in
conceptual framework (figure 1.1).
In the results of factor analysis of Risk management, three factors were extracted the first
attributes (Risk Avoidance) explained public sector performance better with 93.5% the second
variable attribute (Risk Detection,) also explained more of Risk management with 89.4% lastly
(Conducting economic improvement) explained more of Risk management with 97.2%

The factor analysis of Risk Avoidanceunder Risk management attribute explained that is the
protection of department by 91.7% which enable to perform better by 89.9%

2.8 Economic growth

Variable Attributes Sustainab Develo Growth in Real Improve

le Growth pment production Exchange the degree
Growt Rates of
h developme
nt

is a special process describing a complete .987

and integrated approach for performing a
specific project type.

They provide a complete end-to-end .867

lifecycle for its scope and can be used as
a reference for running projects with
similar characteristics.

Service definition is key to service .895

management. Service definition enables
both the customer and the service
provider

o expect and not expect from a service. .875

Clearly defined services enable
customers to understand service
offerings, including what each service
does and does not include,

The eligibility, service limitations, cost, .891

how to request services, and how to get
help.

A well-defined service also identifies .981

internal processes necessary to provide
and support the service Francis and
James, 2003; Crook, 2003.

It relates to achieving maximum output .892

from a given amount of resources used.

Variable Attributes .913

It is the relationship between the output in .871
terms of goods and services and the
resources used to produce them.

The ratio of output – input) (Pauw et al., .875

2002: 139). In this case, the higher the
ratio, the higher the efficiency is.

It is the extent to which an activity’s stated .891

objectives are achieved.

It describes the relationship between .875

intended impact and the actual impact on
an activity.

Internal controls in this thesis particularly .831

relate to mechanisms undertaken within
the confines.

The district local governments to ensure .797

accountability, efficient and effective
performance.

The National Revenue Authority is the .868

institution responsible for managing
revenue in the country.
It composition and functions shall be .799
regulated by the law” (p. 67).

Eigen value 1.576 1.498 .599 .573

Variance % 38.973 31.343 19.353 17.175

Cumulative% 38.973 60.313 80.789 83.695

Source: Primary data (2016)

The results in table 4.7.1 above shows how the factor calculating do confirm that Services
delivery is measured by Sustainable Growth, Development Growth, Growth in production, Real
Exchange Rates and Improve the degree of development as hypothesized in conceptual
framework (figure 1.1).

In the results of factor analysis of Economic growth of financial institutions four factors were
extracted the first attributes (Sustainable Growth) explained Economic growth of financial
institutions better with 75.5% the second variable attribute (Development Growth) also explained
more of Economic growth of financial institutions with 88.4% lastly (Growth in production)
explained more of Economic growth of financial institutions with 77.2% The factor analysis of
Sustainable Growthunder Economic growth of financial institutions attribute explained that is the
protection of department by 87.7% which enable to perform better by 89.9%

CHAPTER FIVE

DISCUSSION OF THE FINDINGS

5.0 Introduction

This chapter summarizes the findings of the study. Section 5.2 is a summary of the findings.
Section 5.3 discusses the conclusion. Section 5.4 explains the limitations of the study and
Section 5.5 gives the recommendations for further research.

5.1 Summary of the Study

The budget preparation and financial policy sector has continued to play an important role in
South Sudan Economy. The sector’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product increased from
13.8% in 1993 to over 18% in 2009. The Economic survey 2012 estimated that the contribution
to the by this sector currently stands at over 25%. It is the objective of every entrepreneur to
grow their businesses into large enterprises. To achieve this, most of the entrepreneurs make use
of microfinance services. Various studies have been done in Kenya on SMEs and how they are
influenced by microfinance services but none had focused on the effects of microfinance services
on the growth of the SMEs. The purpose of this study was to find out the effects of microfinance
services on the growth of Small and Medium Enterprises in South Sudan. A quantitative
descriptive design was used to study 8 types of business categories in South Sudan. Structured
questionnaire was used to collect data from 100 businesses. The sample of 100 businesses from a
list of 5311 was taken as a representative population in the county.

The study was on dependence and independent relationship. A moderate multiple regression
analysis was used. A multivariate regression model was applied to determine the relative
importance of each of the three variables; microcredit, micro insurance and training, with respect
to the effects of services delivery on the financial policy. The regression analysis conducted
established that two of the independent variables have appositive correlation with the dependent
variable. Micro credit and training contribute positively to the sales growth while micro
insurance affects growth negatively. The analysis was intended to investigate whether the
variation in the independent variables explains the observed variance in the outcome – in this
study the annual growth in turnover. Findings in this study showed that there was correlation
between the predictor variables (Budget preparation and Training provided and response variable
Annual growth in turnover since P- value of 0.011 is less than 0.05. This indicated that there was
a strong positive relationship between the study variables.

The probability value (p-value) of a statistical hypothesis test is the probability of getting

a value of the test statistic as extreme as or more extreme than that observed by chance alone, if
the null hypothesis H0 is true. The p-value is compared with the actual significance level of the
test and, if it is smaller, the result is significant. The smaller it is the more convincing is the
rejection of the null hypothesis. Showed that there was correlation between the predictor
variables (Microcredit, Micro insurance and Training provided by and response variable (Annual
growth in turnover) since Play value of 0.011 is less than 0.05. The results indicate that the
independent variables significantly (F=2.094, p=0.011) explain the variance in Annual growth in
turnover.

5.2.1 Conclusion

Based on the findings, the study concludes that the growth in sales is due to changes in

Microcredit, Micro insurance and Training provided by MFIs. The results show the relationship
between the micro finance services and the growth of SMEs. There is strong positive relationship
between the micro finance services and the Budget preparation. The study further concludes that
Microcredit and Training provided to SMEs leads to their high growth. It can also be concluded
that there is a major effect of the microfinance services. This concurs with Koech (2011) that the
factors affecting growth were capital market, cost, capital access, collateral requirements,
information access, capital management and cost of registration. Capital market, cost and capital
access had the highest contribution to constraining into large businesses. It also agrees with the
findings of Cooper (2012) that microfinance services had a strong positive impact on the growth
of SMEs. The study further concluded that effect of microcredit, micro insurance and training.

5.2.2 Limitations of the Study

The study focused on SMEs in South Sudan and the time limit was not adequate to collect data
from the whole county. Cost constraint was also a limiting factor and hence the sample of 100
SMEs from the whole county was on the lower side. Most business owners were reluctant to fill
the questionnaires after reading and establishing that financial information about their businesses
was required in the questionnaire. They said that information was very sensitive and confidential
and that giving it to anybody amounted to uncovering themselves. Many of the entrepreneurs
argued that they do not keep records. They admitted that they lack basic bookkeeping/recording
skills.

Sales figures could not form a reliable basis to analyze the growth since the figures were not
provided from audited published financial statements. Most respondents could not be
interviewed and as a result the validity of their responses could not be confirmed. Majority of the
sole proprietors said they get their family financing from the businesses and were satisfied as
long as the businesses continued to operate and were not threatened to close down. The micro
enterprises owners said they do not get any formal financial services from formal financial
institution because of the strict requirement conditions put in place i.e collaterals, guarantors, and
repayment terms. They said they only depend on round table banking for their financial needs.

5.2.3 Recommendations for further research

Since the study focused on micro finance services on the growth of SMEs in South Sudan
County, it is suggested that further studies be done on other Counties. This is because different
counties have unique characteristics and diverse contextual realities that might affect micro
finance services offered to. It is also recommended that a study be done to find out why many
SMEs do not make use of the micro insurance. The study further recommends that for studies
require information about business growth and business records the data collection tools be
designed to seek both facts and opinions.

5.3.1. Findings on Gender composition of respondents

The findings shows the majority of respondents are male (55%) and (45 %) represent female of
180 respondents, this implies that the highest percentage is represented by male in the Financial
Dept in South Sudan.

5.3.2. Findings on Age bracket of respondents

Findings indicated that majority of the respondents were 38.9% which were between the age
bracket of 31 to .35 years, followed by 22.2% with the age of 25-30 years, 15.6% above 40
years, and 11.1% less than 24 years. This implies that there were adequate representation of the
study population and data provided represented the views of age groups.

5.3.3 Findings on education Level

Researcher found that majority of the respondents 44.4% were degree holders and 36.1 %) were
diploma holder. This implies that the staffs have at least a minimum level of education which
makes the work easier for the management of ministry of finance

5.3.4 Findings on period worked for organization

The finding shows that the biggest percentage of 50% have worked for a period of 1 to 5 years
in the South Sudan financial Dept, 30.5% for more than 5 years, 19.5% for less than one year.
This may imply that they are aware of current changes in the financial policies.
5.3.5 Findings on the relationship between exchange rate, risk management and economic
growth of financial institutions

The study conducted researcher found out that majority of respondents (46.5%) strongly agree
that exchange rate affect financial policy 12.5% agreed also agreed that there is relationship exist
between services delivery and financial policy report 5% disagree, and 10.5% were not sure.
This implies that financial policy has high effects on exchange rate these can be positive effects
or negative effects. 25.5%. This is in line with the study carried out by

5.4. Findings on Reduction of Taxes income

Results in table 4.6 above indicate that 41.7% of the respondents strongly agreed that good
taxation system improve performance of the company 25% agreed, 16.7% were not sure, 11%
disagreed and 5.6% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents agreed. This implies that
good taxation system can improve Reduction of Taxes income of any organization like in case of
financial dept in South Sudan.

5.4.1 Findings on Tax channel confused

Results in table 4.7 above indicate that 27.7% of the respondents strongly agreed that revenue as
a attribute of financial policy it helps Dept to improve their performance and effective achieving
of business objectives 47.8% agreed, 11.1% were not sure, 7.8% disagreed and 5.6% strongly
disagreed. This implies that Revenue as tool attributes of Tax channel confused affects the level
and the standard of Tax channel confused of any organization in both private and Tax channel
confused

5.4.2 Finding onDecrease in investment

Results in table 4.8 above indicate that 36.1% of the respondents strongly agreed that
expenditure as measure of financial policy affect Decrease in investment of the financial dept.
30.5% agreed, 11.1% were not sure, 13.9% disagreed and 8.3% strongly disagreed. Majority of
the respondents strongly disagreed. This implies that fiscal policy is very importance in budget
preparation of South Sudan financial dept.

5.4.3 Finding on Imported input cost

Results in table 4.9 above indicate that 36.1% of the respondents strongly agreed that there is
high business performance in South Sudan 25% agreed, 3.3% were not sure, 23.3% disagreed
and 23.3% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents strongly agreed. This implies that
budget preparation provide base for making good Imported input cost

5.4.4 Finding on Wage indexation

Table 4.11 shows that 41.7 % of the respondents strongly agreed that profitability is the measure
of budget preparation which is affected by financial policy, 13.9% agreed 11.1% not sure, 25%
disagreed and 8.3% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents strongly agreed. This implies
Wage indexationsattribute is affected by Wage indexation

5.4.5 Findings on Risk Avoidance

Results in table 4.9 above indicate that 23.3% of the respondents strongly agreed that control
activities is one of internal audit functions, 16.7% agreed, 3.3% were not sure, 23.3% disagreed
and 23.3% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents strongly agreed and agreed. This
implies that budget preparation as an attribute of Risk Avoidance it is also affected by economic
growth of financial institutions

5.5 Findings on Risk Detection

Results in table 4.10 above indicate that 26.7% of the respondents strongly agreed that risk
management is one of an element of sustainable working capital, 31.7% agreed, 20% were not
sure and 13.3% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents strongly agreed. This implies
that it affects sustainable working capital of an organization gets affected by Risk Detection

5.5.1 Findings on conducting economic improvement

Table 4.11 shows that 22.2 % of the respondents strongly agreed that financial reporting is
affected by budget policy and internal control system, 33.3% agreed 17.8% not sure, 12.2
disagreed and 14.4% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents strongly agreed. This
implies if fiscal policy is good there will be improvement in budget preparation.

5.5.2 Findings on Improve determinant of imports

Table 4.12 shows that 42% respondents agreed that other factors like inflation and monitory
policy has effects on budget preparation, 34% strongly agreed 20% not sure and 4% strongly
disagreed. Since the majority strongly agreed this implies that other factors affect financial
policy.

5.5.3 Findings on financial institutions

Table 4.13shows that 48.9 % of the respondents strongly agreed that Financial policy is other
factor which affect small budget preparation 17.8% agreed 6.7% not sure and 26.6% strongly
disagreed. Majority of the respondents strongly agreed. This implies budget preparation is
affected by monetary policy that is if there is a change in monetary policy and financial dept gets
affected.

5.5.4 Finding on risk management

Table 4.14 shows that 43.9 % of the respondents strongly agreed that inflation highly affects
small business performance 18.9% agreed, 19.4% not sure, 10 disagreed and 7.8% strongly
disagreed. Majority of the respondents agreed. This implies that budget preparation can be
affected by inflation that is when there is high inflation rate in the country services delivery get
affected negatively but when there is low inflation financial policy is always good

5.5.5 Finding on exchange Rate

Table 4.14 shows that 43.9 % of the respondents strongly agreed that working capital must
always be well sustain in order to improve budget preparation 18.9% agreed 19.4% not sure, 10
disagreed and 7.8% strongly disagreed. Majority of the respondents agreed. This implies that this
implies when working capital is well sustained budget preparation will automatically improve.
CHAPTER SIX:

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.0 Introductions

The study set out to examine and analyze the socio-economic implications of forced migration
for migrant-host communities using key variables such as internal peace and security,
environmental resources, public health, food security and the economic outcomes. The study,
alongside also tried to identify the refugee policy response of the government in refugee
management. The analysis of the empirical findings and relevant conceptual models has
illustrated interesting outcomes on the subject under scrutiny.

6.1 Summary

The general findings of the research have given a portrayal of what it indeed set out to do with
specific regards to the objectives/research questions and hypothesis of the study. In line with the
research questions, the premise of the study is that forced migration in South Sudan has had
more negative than positive impact on the socio-economic structures of the migrant-host
communities. Various theoretical and conceptual models as indicated in chapter 3 were adopted
as the foundation for the discussion and analysis of findings based on the variables mentioned
above. On the basis of these theoretical and conceptual models contributions, I presented my
own working model as depicted at the end of chapter.

6.2Conclusion

The findings of the research have generally established that forced migration have had more
negative impact on host communities, in Ghana with varying degree in the south and north.
Nevertheless, the findings also revealed some considerable positive implications of the refugee
presence for the host communities. Through this summary it is found that from the very start of
the massive migrant influx to Ghana, challenges of peace and security in the local host
communities have evolved in various ways.

Organized and petty crimes have flourished an issue that some informants may attribute to
deprivation, frustration as well as unemployment. This was more evident in the northern refugee-
host communities. A considerable number of literatures argue that most host governments have
difficulty in confining refugees within camps or designated areas due mainly to international
humanitarian conventions and partly to the large numbers involved in African refugee situations.

Furthermore, there was increased pressure on environmental resources of the community fuel
(firewood), water and land. These resources stood as a pivot for competition between refugees
and host populations thereby creating environmental degradation especially in the north where
desertification has already set in. This issue gradually became pronounced with time as refugees
saw the communities as a safe haven and therefore became reluctant towards voluntary
repatriation. The competition for these local resources is also a potential of provoked tensions
and violence and as well contributed significantly to environmental degradation with specific
reference to deforestation and pollution from burning charcoal. In relation to the above as the
findings depict, the refugee presence increased the population of the host communities fuelling
corresponding increase in demand for all products including food items. However, the provision
to refugees of small plots of land in the northern refugee-host communities for maize, yam,
vegetable, potato farming and poultry rearing increased production level of these products and
enhanced food security.

The analysis under public health and sanitation show that existing health facilities have been
over stretched. The refugee situation equally produced serious sanitation problems due to the
poor sanitation practices without enforcement of by-laws to sanction culprits.

Positively, these challenges are mitigated through the assistance of both local and international
agencies. These agencies help in the provision of medical care, portable water, and structures to
uplift environmental sanitation and control of endemic and contagious diseases. The need for
refugee education and skills training also exerted some burden on educational resources available
for communities. The refugee situation led to establishment of schools of various levels of
education as well as vocational and technical institutions. This equally placed strain on scarce
teaching manpower which

Ghana is facing. Notwithstanding this, local hosts also benefited from the educational facilities
provided by the humanitarian agencies.

On general social dynamics, the relations between refugees and hosts also produced some
negative impacts. The camps in the south especially became points for drunkenness, prostitution
and sexual promiscuity. Members of the host communities, especially the elderly saw such
behaviours to be against public decency and traditional order. These attitudes and behaviours
were accompanied by criminal activities, theft and other social vices.

Economically, the refugee situations produced both negative and positive impacts. Due to the
population, prices of basic items shot up sharply. Whilst this situation became challenging for the
local hosts, especially the poorer to bear, the rich business people and the advantaged group
benefited by using the opportunities to engage in ventures to make more profits. This further
widens the gap between the poor and the rich in the community. Remittances from refugee
relatives enable refugees to supplement their income, acquire properties in the communities as
well as engage in income generating activities which improves the economy of the communities.

Despite enormous volumes of scholarly works on there is deficiency of literature on international

migration with regards to refugees in Ghana as well as policy framework. More attention has
been paid to domestic migration within the country. On the refugee policy framework the huge
wave of refugees into South Sudan in the 2000s and afterwards resulted in the establishment of
the GRB under the 2013 South Sudanese constitution. This institution, a first of its kind in Ghana
was mandated by the government to deal with refugee related issues. The board in undertaking
its responsibilities does this in collaboration and cooperation with both international and local
humanitarian agencies.

The international refugee agency, UNHCR in line with these findings acknowledges the
concerns of African governments with specific reference to the burdens forced migrants put on
them as hosts. UNHCR, (1997) therefore, indicates that now more than ever before, African host
governments have realized the impact of hosting refugees and categorically argue that refugees
present.

6.3 Recommendations

In their effort to address refugee problems, policies of governments, national and international
organizations should be holistic enough to also take the potential burden refugees can place on
host communities and their populations into serious consideration.

The humanitarian organizations should be able to, as Chambers (1986) puts it, distinguish
different categories among host communities, especially those who are poorer, morevulnerable
and more likely to be hurt by refugee competition just as the case in northern

Ghana. In this way durable solutions would be sought to mitigate if not eradicate the negative
implications for the Services delivery. Another major strategy to mitigating the impact of refugee
situations on host communities is the concept of burden sharing. This is when the international
and donor agencies acknowledge the burden refugees place on host countries and their
communities and offer a helping hand to include hosts as well. This as stated by Gallagher, D.

(1994:432) implies that the international community is obliged to support host countries, which
assist and protect refugees while durable solutions are sought. In designing and implementing
development programmed in refugee-host communities the lessons of past experiences such as
the case in question should help improve performance. It is the opinion of many refugee authors
that unless national and international refugee institutions deliberately include many hosts in their
relief programmed, services and development, they will be hurt at the expense of being hosts
while refugees are supported in various ways. It is also very sad that most refugees even with the
necessary skills and expertise are unemployed due to the high rate of unemployment in Ghana.
This situation has resulted in various exchange ratefor the local hosts. It is therefore vital that the
government financial accountability and its operational partners help to promote employment
opportunities for them so that they can contribute meaningfully to the socio-economic
development of the country as a whole and the host communities in particular.

It is worthy stating that this study does not claim as being exhaustive of studies on Public sector
performance and its Services delivery. More related studies are needed in future to undertake an
in-depth look into how refugees can serve as potential assets for their hosts especially if their
skills and expertise are well managed can represent an all round potential for the benefit of host
communities. Refugees are often perceived as an economic and social burden on their host
countries. That can be true initially or in the short-run but in the long run however, people who
work, produce and consume become assets not liabilities (Blavo, 2009). I submit that forced
migration is not necessarily associated with burdens on hosts but equally present some benefits.

6.4 Data Process and Analysis

Collected data shall be ,coded, and entered into the computer using the statistical packages for
social scientists (SPSS) and shall be then coded .the analysis involved person correlation analysis
and multiple regression analysis person correlation analysis shall be used to determine the
relationship between Study variable financial accountability ,public sector performance and
services delivery .alternatively ,multiple regression analysis will used to establish the extent to
which the independent variable (exchange rate)and dependent variable (Risk Management)
predicted the intervening variable(economic growth of financial institutions)

7.0 APPENDIX II: BIO DATA AND DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE

Dear Sir/ Madam

I am Student in Busoga University Uganda pursuing Bachelor degree of Accounting and finance
study on the Topic: exchange rate, risk management and economic growth of financial
institutions in the ministry of finance. The study is for academic purposes and is carried out as
partial requirement of the award of Bachelor Degree of Accounting and financeat Busoga
University Uganda. Your responses will be treated with utmost confidentiality. Your input is
highly appreciated.

7.1 SECTION A: BIO DATA

Please tick your selected option

1. Gender

Male Female
 1 2
A2. Age Group

21 – 30 yrs 31 – 40 yrs 41 – 50 yrs Over 50 yrs

1 2 3 4
A3. Highest level of education

Diploma Degree Post Graduate Master’s Degree PhD

1 2 3 4 3
4. What department are you working with?

5. Human Resource Dept Finance Dept Marketing Dept Internal Audit Dept Other

1 2 3 4

A6. What is your position?

Top Management Middle Management Lower Management

1 2 3

A7. How long have you worked with ministry of Local Government Juba City council Block?

Less than 3 yrs 4 – 6 yrs 7 – 8 yrs More than 8 yrs

1 2 3 4
7.2 DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLE

Section B (III): Exchange Rate

To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

Tick appropriately following scales 1=strongly agree 2= agree, 3= strongly 4=disagree 5=

uncertain in the table below:-

Exchange Rate 1 2 3 4 5

Exchange Rate; is a ministry planning tools to address or improve financial

plans

Budget is comprehensive plan of the government

It coordinate all the government activates

It determine how effectiveness government perform it works

Reduction of Taxes income

Reduction of Taxes income; Is the integral part of the Planning helps to

improve performance

It ensures better resource allocation and utilization

It ensure efficiency in carrying out business activities

It reduces wastage of the resources

Tax channel confused

Tax channel confused: is the coordinating activities in organization

 aTax channel confused is thealigns organization activities with objectives of
an organization.

It shows the line of flow of jobs of an organization

It interlinks departments of an organization to achieve one goal

Decrease in investment

Decrease in investment ;is the ability to operate efficiently

Is measured by how efficient the enterprise is in use of resources in

achieving its objectives

Financial performance indicators are return on assets

Measuring the performance of the Budget policyyields benefits to

organizations

Imported input cost

Imported input cost; Is the Measuring the performance of the Budget

policyyields benefits

Is where the business has more market shares

High r sales revenues over every period

High asset mix, business with high pool of asset is said to be high profitable

Section C (I): Risk Management

To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

Tick appropriately following scales 1=strongly agree 2= agree, 3= strongly 4=disagree 5=
uncertain in the table below;-

Risk Management 1 2 3 4 5

Risk Management is the mostStrongest internal system improve financial

reports

It protects organization assets from theft

It ensures accuracy in financial reporting

It provides assurance to the public

Risk Avoidance

Risk Avoidance; It is still spirit of honesty and integrity since it checks daily
activities

It helps in identifying errors and frauds at an earlier stage

It can be used to check the existent of internal control and whether they are
working

It is one of the tool auditor use to collect audit evidence

Risk Detection

Risk Detection; is the Effective commitment improve financial reporting

Is the process of identifying competencies

It involves the process of accepting risk and measurement of degree of its

occurrence
Risk management involve the process of accepting, reducing risk

Conducting economic improvement

Conducting economic improvement ;It is an element of disciplinary

procedures the can improve better performance

Financial reporting is based on the activities of an organization

Control activities helps in financial reporting

It helps in providing audit evidence for better financial reporting

Section D (I): Economic Growth of financial institutions

To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

Tick appropriately following scales 1=strongly agree 2= agree, 3= strongly 4=disagree 5=

uncertain in the table below:-

Economic Growth of financial institutions 1 2 3 4 5

Economic Growth of financial institutions is the requirement of the company

Act

It provides financial reports that are to be used by the stakeholders

It shows how best the financial resources are been put to it uses

It can be used for planning to improve the performance of the ministry

Sustainable Growth

Is the well allocated of resources that must contain information which is

relevant

Relevant financial report is used by owners and investors for decision making
Financial information is relevant to serves the interest of decision makers

Financial report is relevant when it has been accurately recorded

Development Growth

Development Growth; is the Reliable financial information conveys

transactions

Reliable financial information serve particular needs, of financial reports

Reliable financial information also needs to be free from undue error

Reliable financial report can be offset by disclosure of the uncertainties

Growth in production

Growth in production; Is the integral part of Financial performance need to be

able to compare aspects of an entity over time

Financial statements should be compared for both current period and previous
period

Financial statement helps to compare ministry performance

Financial report should be easy to be compared

Real Exchange Rates

Real Exchange Rates; Is the sets of rate That could be easy to understand by all
users

Information which easy helps in making good decision

Under stability of the information reduces risk of making wrong decision

In your organization management

References

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ISBN 978-0-415-30900-4.

2. Moffett, Michael H.; Stone hill, Arthur I.; Eiteman, David K. (2009). Fundamentals of
Multinational Finance, 3rd Edition. Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley. ISBN 978-0-321-
54164-2.

3. Homaifar, Ghassem A. (2004). Managing Global Financial and Foreign Exchange Risk.
Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-471-28115-3.

4. Moosa, Imad A. (2003). International Financial Operations: Arbitrage, Hedging,

Speculation, Financing and Investment. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0-
333-99859-6.

5. "FASB".

6. Wang, Peijie (2005). The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance. Berlin,
Germany: Springer. ISBN 978-3-540-21237-9.

7. Eun, Cheol S.; Resnick, Bruce G. (2011). International Financial Management, 6th
Edition. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin. ISBN 978-0-07-803465-7.

8. Dunn, Robert M., Jr.; Mutti, John H. (2004). International Economics, 6th Edition. New
York, NY: Routledge. ISBN 978-0-415-31154-0.

9. Pilbeam, Keith (2006). International Finance, 3rd Edition. New York, NY: Palgrave
Macmillan. ISBN 978-1-4039-4837-3.

10. Reszat, Beate (2003). The Japanese Foreign Exchange Market. New Fetter Lane,
London: Routledge. ISBN 0-203-22254-7.
1. Bartram, Söhnke M.; Burns, Natasha; Helwege, Jean (September 2013). "Foreign
Currency Exposure and Hedging: Evidence from Foreign Acquisitions". Quarterly
Journal of Finance. Forthcoming. SSRN 1116409 .

2. Bartram, Söhnke M.; Bodnar, Gordon M. (June 2012). "Crossing the Lines: The Relation
between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed
Markets". Journal of International Money and Finance. 31 (4): 766–792. SSRN 1983215 .
doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.01.011.

3. Bartram, Söhnke M.; Brown, Gregory W.; Minton, Bernadette (February 2010).
"Resolving the Exposure Puzzle: The Many Facets of Exchange Rate Exposure". Journal
of Financial Economics. 95 (2): 148–173. SSRN 1429286 .
Doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.09.002.

4. Bartram, Söhnke M. (August 2008). "What Lies Beneath: Foreign Exchange Rate
Exposure, Hedging and Cash Flows". Journal of Banking and Finance. 32 (8): 1508–
1521. SSRN 905087 . doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.07.013.

5. Bartram, Söhnke M. (December 2007). "Corporate Cash Flow and Stock Price Exposures
to Foreign Exchange Rate Risk". Journal of Corporate Finance. 13 (5): 981–994.
SSRN 985413 . doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2007.05.002.

6. Bartram, Söhnke M.; Bodnar, Gordon M. (September 2007). "The Foreign Exchange
Exposure Puzzle". Managerial Finance. 33 (9): 642–666. SSRN 891887 .
Doi:10.1108/03074350710776226.

7. Bartram, Söhnke M.; Karolyi, G. Andrew (October 2006). "The Impact of the
Introduction of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposures". Journal of
Empirical Finance. 13 (4–5): 519–549. SSRN 299641 .
doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2006.01.002.

8. Bartram, Söhnke M. (June 2004). "Linear and Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate
Exposures of German Nonfinancial Corporations". Journal of International Money and
Finance. 23 (4): 673–699. SSRN 327660 . Doi:10.1016/s0261-5606(04)00018-x.
 9. Bartram, Söhnke M. (2002). "The Interest Rate Exposure of Nonfinancial Corporations".
European Finance Review. 6 (1): 101–125. SSRN 327660 .
Doi:10.1023/a:1015024825914.

7.3 APPENDIX II: QUESTIONNAIRES GUIDE

In this Sections please tick in the box that corresponds to your opinion/view according to scale
1=strongly disagree 2=disagree 3= not sure 4=agree 5= strongly agree.
1-Position in the institution ……………………………………………………………………

2-Department/Section………………………………………………………………………….

a) Does the Exchange Rate effective in South Sudan?

Yes No

3-what is the relationship between exchange rate and risk management?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………

b) In your view, do you think exchange rate performance influence the economic growth in
South Sudan Ministry of finance or Bank of South Sudan?

Yes No

4-What are the relationship between risk management and economic growth of financial
institutions?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………….

c) Does the commercial Banks engage the Bank of South Sudan in the activities of
development?
 Yes No

5-How to establishthe relationship between economic growth of financial institutions and

Exchange Rate?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………

APPENDIX: IPROPOSED TIME PLAN FOR THE STUDY

ACTIVITIES PERIOD

JAN-16 FEB-16 MAR-16 APRIL-16 MAY-17

Research topic formulation

Writing snappy

Writing of research topic

Research tool of data collection

 Submitting Report

APPENDIX: II PROPOSED BUDGET FOR THE STUDY

S/No Items Price Total amount items Total

Name purchase budgets

fuel used 6*2500 15,000 SSP

Buying of Stationeries for 50*100note 5000 SSP

Noting Down

Facilitate support 1 5000 SSP

Research group discussion 1000 0SSP

contribution

Friendship consumption 500 0 SSP

Contingency Amount 1500 0SSP

The Amount Spends 65,500 SSP 65,500

SSP