UltraPoll - Prince Edward

Island
Voter Intention Numbers
2nd August 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey was conducted between July 15th
and 17th among a sample of 731 adults, 18
years of age or older, living in Prince Edward
Island. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources
and random digit dialing. The part of the
survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions; Charlottetown and the rest of PEI. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what
region of the province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.85% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PEI LIBERALS NARROWLY AHEAD IN A THREE WAY BATTLE

2 August 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – Less than three points separate the governing Liberals and
the third place Greens.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 731 Prince Edward Islanders between July 15th to 17th. The
poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.85% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The MacLauchlan Liberals are in a virtual tie with the PCs with the Greens very close behind,”
said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “We have not seen a situation
like this before where three parties’ levels of support are this close to each other and within
the margin of error.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan have 32% support,
while the Progressive Conservatives with James Aylward currently enjoy 31.3%. The Greens
– who led the last time Mainstreet polled PEI in January – come in with 29.2%. The NDP with
Joe Byrne at the helm have 5.4%.

The Greens lead the Liberals by less than a point among female voters, while the PCs lead
the Liberals by nearly four among men. It is the PCs’ poor performance among women and
the Green Party’s weak showing among men that is costing both parties the overall lead.

Among the age groups, the Liberals lead the Greens by less than a point among 18-34s, while
the PCs have a nearly a twenty point lead over the Liberals among those aged between 35
to 49. Among the 50-64 age cohort, the Liberals and the Greens are essentially tied, while
the Liberals lead the PCs by almost four points among respondents older than 65.

In terms of regional breakouts, the Liberals lead the PCs by nearly three, while all three
parties are within less than two points of each other in the rest of PEI.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

Undecided 9.1%

Another Party 2.0%

Liberals 28.5%

Greens 26.6%

All Voters

NDP 5.0%

Decided and Leaning Progressive Conservatives 28.7%

Liberals Another Party 2.2%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

Another Party Undecided

Liberals 32.0%
Greens 29.2%

Decided and Leaning

NDP 5.4%

Progressive Conservatives 31.3%

 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 28.5% 28.2% 28.9% 31.5% 20.9% 30.4% 30.7% 27.9% 28.7%
Progressive Conservatives led by James Aylward 28.7% 24% 33.5% 21.2% 43.7% 23.9% 27.3% 28.1% 28.9%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 5% 5.2% 4.8% 3.9% 6.2% 4.7% 5.6% 8.4% 3.9%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 26.6% 30.7% 22.4% 28.9% 18.5% 31.4% 26.4% 22.7% 27.9%
Another Party 2% 1.3% 2.9% 2.6% 3.4% 1.4% 1% - 2.7%
Undecided 9.1% 10.6% 7.6% 12% 7.4% 8.2% 9.1% 12.9% 7.8%
Unweighted Frequency 731 416 315 49 68 161 453 223 508
Weighted Frequency 731 373 358 178 172 216 164 185 546

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Total Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 30% 30.3% 29.7% 31.5% 24.7% 31.7% 31.6% 30.1% 29.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by James Aylward 29.6% 25.6% 33.7% 23.4% 43.7% 24.5% 28% 28.1% 30%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 5% 5.2% 4.8% 3.9% 6.2% 4.7% 5.6% 8.4% 3.9%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 27.4% 31% 23.5% 30.6% 18.5% 31.4% 27.8% 24.5% 28.3%
Another Party 2.1% 1.4% 2.9% 2.6% 3.4% 1.4% 1.2% - 2.8%
Undecided 6% 6.5% 5.4% 8.1% 3.6% 6.3% 5.8% 8.8% 5%
Unweighted Frequency 731 416 315 49 68 161 453 223 508
Weighted Frequency 731 373 358 178 172 216 164 185 546

(decided and leaning voters)

Total Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 32% 32.4% 31.5% 34.5% 25.5% 33.8% 33.5% 33.2% 31.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by James Aylward 31.3% 27.3% 35.4% 25.3% 45.3% 26.2% 29.7% 30.7% 31.5%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 5.4% 5.6% 5.2% 4.2% 6.6% 5% 5.9% 9.1% 4.1%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 29.2% 33.2% 25% 33.3% 19.2% 33.4% 29.6% 27.0% 29.9%
Another Party 2.2% 1.4% 3% 2.7% 3.4% 1.5% 1.3% - 2.9%
Unweighted Frequency 687 389 298 45 65 150 427 207 480
Weighted Frequency 687 351 336 168 162 203 154 173 514
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party led
by Wade MacLauchlan What is your age group?
Progressive Conservative Party of 18 to 34 years of age
Prince Edward Island led by James 35 to 49 years of age
Aylward 50 to 64 years of age
Green Party of Prince Edward Island 65 years of age or older
led by Peter Bevan-Baker
New Democratic Party of Prince
Edward Island led by Joe Byrne
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party led
by Wade MacLauchlan
Progressive Conservative Party of
Prince Edward Island led by James
Aylward
Green Party of Prince Edward Island
led by Peter Bevan-Baker
New Democratic Party of Prince
Edward Island led by Joe Byrne
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 15th, 2018
and July 17th, 2018, among a sample of 731 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Prince
Edward Island. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of Prince Edward Island.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of two regions in Prince Edward
Island: Charlottetown and the rest of Prince Edward Island. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.52% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.86%, Females: +/-
5.58%, 18-34 age group: +/- 16.55%, 35-49 age group: +/- 11.53%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.43%,
65+ age group: +/- 5.57%, Charlottetown: +/- 5.77%, Rest of Prince Edward Island: +/- 5.46%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.