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Actual Demand Smoothed Trend Tt Forecast Including Trend FITt

Month(t) (At) Smoothed Forecast Ft S B Y^


1 12 11 2 13
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
Alpha Beta
0.2 0.4
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9659446917
R Square 0.9330491474
Adjusted R Square 0.9107321966
Standard Error 0.4724082012
Observations 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 9.330491 9.330491 41.80899 0.007506
Residual 3 0.669509 0.22317
Total 4 10

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%


Lower 95.0%
Intercept -5.4528585757 1.477122 -3.69154 0.03448 -10.1537 -0.752 -10.1537
88 0.0764794383 0.011828 6.465987 0.007506 0.038838 0.114121 0.038838
Upper 95.0%
-0.752
0.114121
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.965945
R Square 0.933049
Adjusted R 0.910732
Standard E 5.966574
Observatio 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1488.4 1488.4 41.80899 0.007506
Residual 3 106.8 35.6
Total 4 1595.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 74.8 8.004998 9.344162 0.002596 49.32452 100.2755 49.32452 100.2755
1 12.2 1.886796 6.465987 0.007506 6.195372 18.20463 6.195372 18.20463
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.965945
R Square 0.933049
Adjusted R 0.910732
Standard E 5.966574
Observatio 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1488.4 1488.4 41.80899 0.007506
Residual 3 106.8 35.6
Total 4 1595.2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 74.8 8.004998 9.344162 0.002596 49.32452 100.2755 49.32452 100.2755
1 12.2 1.886796 6.465987 0.007506 6.195372 18.20463 6.195372 18.20463
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.979561
R Square 0.959539
Adjusted R 0.949423
Standard E 5.178711
Observatio 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2544.057 2544.057 94.86009 0.000622
Residual 4 107.2762 26.81905
Total 5 2651.333

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 75.46667 4.821118 15.65336 9.73E-05 62.0811 88.85223 62.0811 88.85223
X Variable 12.05714 1.237949 9.739614 0.000622 8.620046 15.49424 8.620046 15.49424
Period Month Demand S T
1 September 88 75.467 12.057
2 October 96
3 November 110
4 December 130
5 January 140
6 February 142
7
8 Chart T
9
160

140 f(x) = 12.0571428571x + 75.4666666667

120

100
alpha
beta 80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3
Chart Title

2.0571428571x + 75.4666666667

2 3 4 5 6
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R 1
Standard E 0
Observatio 3

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2 2 #NUM! #NUM!
Residual 1 0 0
Total 2 2

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -8.8125 0 65535 #NUM! -8.8125 -8.8125 -8.8125 -8.8125
X Variable 0.0625 0 65535 #NUM! 0.0625 0.0625 0.0625 0.0625
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R 1
Standard E 0
Observatio 3

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 512 512 #NUM! #NUM!
Residual 1 0 0
Total 2 512

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 141 0 65535 #NUM! 141 141 141 141
X Variable 16 0 65535 #NUM! 16 16 16 16
Quarters Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Quarters Year 1 Year 2
1 53 58 62 68.39 1 0.34 0.34
2 22 25 27 29.21 2 0.14 0.14
3 37 40 44 47.81 3 0.24 0.23
4 45 50 56 59.85 4 0.29 0.29
157 173 189 157 173

Y =16X+141
Year 3
0.33 0.33 68.39 1 157
0.14 0.14 29.21 2 173
0.23 0.23 47.81 3 189
0.30 0.29 59.58
189 205

Chart Title
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3
Col umn O Col umn P
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.736163
R Square 0.541935
Adjusted R 0.465591
Standard E 4.86484
Observatio 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 168 168 7.098592 0.037308
Residual 6 142 23.66667
Total 7 310

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 80 3.790653 21.10455 7.38E-07 70.72461 89.27539 70.72461 89.27539
X Variable 2 0.750661 2.664318 0.037308 0.163198 3.836802 0.163198 3.836802
S.No Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL
1 1999 18 27 23 14 82
2 2000 17 30 20 13 80
3 2001 21 26 23 20 90
4 2002 21 29 26 16 92
5 2003 19 28 22 14 83
6 2004 22 30 26 16 94
7 2005 24 32 24 19 99
8 2006 21 29 29 13 92
9 2007 22.44 31.79 26.56 17.21 98
10 2008 22.89 32.44 27.11 17.56 100
Avg 20.38 28.88 24.13 15.63 22.25
Index 0.92 1.30 1.08 0.70 4.00
Index Share 0.23 0.32 0.27 0.18
1 82
2 80
3 90
4 92
5 83
6 94
7 99
8 92

Y=80+2X
Quarters Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 108 116 123
2 125 134 142
3 150 159 168
4 141 152 165
Central Moving Average

Year/Q Data CMA Index Deseasonalize


1 108 127.0588235294
2 125
3 150 132.00 1.14
4 141 134.13 1.05
1 116 136.38 0.85 Y=124.78+2.34T
2 134 138.88 0.96
3 159 141.13 1.13
4 152 143.00 1.06
1 123 145.13 0.85
2 142 147.88 0.96
3 168 134.13 1.25
4 165 101.00 1.63