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Scientific Aspects of Talent Development

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Research Articles

Scientific Aspects of Talent Development


A. Hohmnann& I. Seidel (Potsdam, Germany)

1 Talent Identification and Talent Promotion


2 Initial, Juvenile, and FinalPerformance as Stages of the Talent Development Pro-
cess
2.] Talent Detection
2.2 Talent Skills (Make-Up)
2.3 Talent Selection
2.3.1 DiagnosticProblems
2.3.2 Diagnostic Criteria
2.4 Talent Training
2.5 Talent Prediction
2.6 Talent Perfection
3 Summary and Conclusions

Abstract

Talent Development with its various aspects (e.g. educational, psychological, institutional)
represents (or should represent) very important and extensive aspects of the work of teachers
as well as of coaches in the field of sports. Both groups of professionals are more or less con-
sciously involved in the early stages of talent identification and talent promotion. Therefore
scientific knowledge about the basic skills and abilities, as to the detection, training, and se-
lection procedures of talented children is indispensable.
The purpose of this paper is to give an overview on scientific tasks, especially on the prob-
lems of talent identification and talent promotion. These two key factors of the talent devel-
opment process are very much intertwined, and therefore need to be discussed in close con-
text. With this in mind, this paper will pay special attention to the issues in the field of train-
ing interventions and performance diagnostic measures, and not so much on institutional or
social aspects of talent development.

1 Talent Identification and Talent Promotion

In the 1970's talent research was conceptualised as a domain specific variant of the more gen-
eral psychological research on giftedness. With this method the talent approach is directed
prospectively and aims at the goal to predict future success on the basis of prepubescent and
adolescent performance data.
In the 1990's an altemate research concept, called the expertise approach was introduced with
the work of Ericsson, Krampe, & Tesch-Romer (1993). The most regarded sport specific
studies based on this approach are summarized in the book
"Developing talent in young people" by Bloom (1985). With this approach, the research per-
spective is reversed, meaning it is retrospective. After asking the question what is special
about adult elite athletes, and what these adult elite performers had to say about their training
history and athletic career, deliberatepractice tumed out to be a crucial factor. Deliberate
practice is done to develop required abilities that are not intrinsically motivating, require ef-
fort and attention, and do not lead to immediate social or financial rewards.
on purpose intencionado
9
I 3 i
0 0 0

INITIAL JUVENILE FINAL


PERFORMANCE - PERFORMANCE 1- PERFORMANCE

Figure 1: Initial,juvenile andfinal athleticperformances as segmental stages of talent devel-


opment

All in all, expertise research has led to an enormous amount of knowledge of how to achieve
excellence with its occasional ups and downs. Still unanswered, however, are the very im-
portant questions concerning talent development, which can only be solved on the basis of the
prospective talent research approach:
1. Talent is an important part of the child's overall potential and deserves recognition and
encouragement from the beginning. Therefore, early talent identification is a central
need for the well being of our young athletes that strive to realise their full potential.
2. Early talent identification reduces the negative consequences of early specialisation,
which on the one hand is definitely needed in regard to future success, but on the other
hand may be imposed on children, that are not necessarily best suited for that specific
kind of sport.
Last, but not least, effective early talent identification lowers the cost of the talent promotion
programs.

2 Initial, Juvenile, and Final Performance as Stages of the Talent Development


Process

Initial performance means the performance of an individual before he/she gets involved in
sport specific training. That kind of performance exhibited by children serves as a starting
point of the talent development process (see Fig. l). It is followed by the subsequent juvenile
performances of prepubescence and during puberty/ˈpjuːbətɪ/
and adolescence. The last stage of final
performance begins when the adult athlete strives for ultimate success.
/ˈʌl.tə.mət/ máximo
/ˈʌl.tɪ.mət/ definitivo (final or highest)
2.1 Talent Detection

The first step in the stream of talent identification procedures (see Fig. 1) is the detection of
talented children that are not yet involved in regular training procedures. Even though the
early detection of talented youngsters appears to be advantageous, there are a couple of prob-
lems related to the initial screening of (in most cases) prepubescent children that have to be
addressed.
10
One of these problems is the ethical question, whether society is allowed to impose such a
screening procedure on their breed, especially when the motivation is not used to enhance its
development (see above), but merely to "tum flesh into gold" (Lloyd, 1995).
Another question is, whether such a screening routine should rely on general or specific test-
ing, i.e. general or specific abilities that compose the initial performance of children. Aber-
nethy (1991) and also Williams and Burwitz (1993) showed strong evidence that the perform-
ance in sports games (the same may be true in contact sports) is primarily determined by in-
formation processing skills. Therefore, unspecific testing which focuses on general motor
abilities or body measures may not provide enough useful information about future success in
these types of sports.
A third, and maybe the most difficult question is concemed with the statistical assumptions
that are based on the Gaussian bell curve, which underlie most of the talent detection projects.
The main idea of this model is that abilities are normally distributed within the (young)
population, and therefore only the bearers of extreme ability levels have to be identified. This
selection process can be problematic, as one can tell from the various cut off limits that are
proposed by sport scientists, and which were consequently adopted by different federations
and/or institutions.
A limit of 2 standard deviations above the average performance of an age population leads to
the integration of 2.3 percent of the children of each age population into the talent promotion
system. This value served as the gold standard in the GDR and for the Russian talent selection
procedure at the entrance of the elite sport schools (Ljach, 1997). If one follows the standards
of 3 standard deviations proposed by the Czech Kovar (1981), then only 0.13 percent of the
group of interest performs in an acceptable manner. The suggestion of a 4 standard deviation
threshold by Matsudo (1996), who regards only 0.003 percent of the population to be capable
of an elite athletic career can be viewed as very extreme.

2.2 Talent Skills (Make - Up)

The talent promotion issue (see Fig. 1) still leaves a lot of unanswered questions conceming
the make-up of the initial performance of young boys and girls.
When speaking of peak performances in adult athletes, one very often does not know much
about the structure of the basic motor or cognitive abilities. Even less is known about the
typical structures of children's initial performances in most of the various sports disciplines.
Therefore, it is quite unclear which skills should be tested. The problem is demonstrated by an
anecdote which was reported by Blanksby (1980):

"The first talent identification test I saw was at school. When classes marched into the
pool the teacher stood by the door, looking down at the ground and pulling various peo-
ple out of the line - the ones who walked with the feet splayed out. He made them con-
centrate on breaststroke. That school did always well in breaststroke events." (13).
When testing a newcomer for the first time, not much is known about the amount of earlier
training and support. In general, this is not a severe problem, since in talented children motor
experience appears to be closely linked to a) a supportive movement environment, and b) to a
motivated family that promotes the motor development of the youngsters.
Poppleton and Salmoni (1991) support these findings in their study on differences between 8-
17 years old talented swimmers (n=77) as compared to non-competitors (n=34) or other (less
successful) athletes (n=71). The differences between these three groups were greatest in re-
gard to parental encouragement, parental expectations, and fathers who had been successful in
sport.

11
2.3 Talent Selection

The most important stage of talent development in young athletes is addressed with juvenile
performance (see Fig. 1). At these (pre-) pubescent and adolescent ages athletes have already
started with long-term training.

2.3.1 Diagnostic Problems

In the beginning of talent research in the 1960/1970's heredity of certain abilities (see Fig. 2)
was in the centre of interest. In some cases this research strategy led to such extreme positions
like the one of Hopkins (2001): "If you want your kids to be great athletes, marry a great ath-
lete".

Ability Nature (heredity) vs. Nurture [%]


10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
maximum strength 12 t 1i 4
2.
_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~7
jumping power U11 3

throwing power 3
sprint speed W |° 1.2 2O2
cyclic movement speed I____|
reaction speed
motor coordination
flexibility 14
body height 04
anaerobic endurance 4
aerobic endurance J I4
u3
03
1- Maes, Beunen, Vlietinck, Neale, Thomis, van den Eynde,
Lyssens, Simons, Derom & Derom (1996); 2: Kovar (1981)
3: Weiss (1979); 4: Harsanyi & Martin (1986) 98) Boys; JOGirls ere It

Figure2: Estimates of the heredity of some motor abilities in J0-year-old boys andgirls

The early estimates claimed up to 90 percent of the aerobic endurance (VO2 max) to be innate
(Klissouras, 1971). Today, only 50 percent of the aerobic endurance is thought to be deter-
mined by genetics (Hopkins, 2001). In almost all other abilities the uncertainty conceming the
genetically fixed portion of performance abilities is much greater, as the grey area in figure 2
shows.
The reasons for this are methodological restrictions that affect the results of the commonly
used twin studies:
(1) Results from twin studies refer primarily to untrained resp. low trained participants or
average athletes. Therefore, the results have to be extrapolated into peak performance
level, which is a highly questionable procedure.
(2) Genetic limits of an individual athlete also vary over the life span, because of the ex-
istence of trainability genes.
(3) A unique environment, i.e. the influence of deliberate practice and various support
systems has a much higher influence on athletic performance as assumed earlier (Reg-
nier, Salmela & Russell, 1993; Thomis & Beunen, i.p.).

12
Since heredity of certain perfornances tumed out not to be as important as previously
thought, science examined the stability of performances over the course of the motor devel-
opment and the training history of young athletes. Figure 3 shows that highly valid tests such
as a 20-or 30m sprint will have satisfactory stability over a few years only at the prepubescent
stage. With the beginning of puberty these correlation's vanish.
Today's scientific findings are leaning toward the direction, that not only the different abilities
and traits, but more important, the trainabilityof the athlete itself is the most important innate
factor (Bouchard, Malina & Perusse, 1997).
The working group around Claude and Thomas Bouchard distinguishes between high and low
responders according to their inherited responsiveness to training.
In conclusion, it seems to be clear that heredity may play the same important role as nurturing
one's talent in mono-structured sports, i.e. sports that depend on very few, sometimes on only
one prime physiological component. In all other sports, especially in those where information-
processing abilities come into play, the role of deliberate practice remains dominant (Baker,
2001).

r2 - --------------------------------------- | 0- Joch (1990): pupils, f, n=26


OmA Joch (1990): pupils, m,n=24
0,8 - 20-rn-sprint 0--- Starischka &Stork (1988):
O - 0 30-m-fl. Sportschool, m, n=15, f, n=15
0-
Hi Siris (1974): Sportschool, m, n=25
0,6 -0-0

~~~~~~~~~~-------------------------------------
0,4 20-m-flying-sprint
-O A A

0.2- 0

--------------------------------------------- 3C-m-sprint-------------------
A A
o Age
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 [yrs]

Figure3: Stability of some motor abilities over thejuvenile ages

Sport Science Studies Volume 9


SPORT Prof. Dr. Daniel Soucie, Editor
0SCIENCE
IC5PE

STUDIES Research in Sport Management:


r-- --- X- ---- Implications for Sport Administrators
I 0 i 1998. Size 6,5 x 9,4 inch, 116 pages.
ISBN 3-7780-6491-6
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13
Two major problems that the responsible institutions are faced with are the voluntary drop out
during the many years of prepubescent and adolescent training, and even more critical the
segregation of young athletes. Again, there are severe ethical concems against selecting peo-
ple out from talent promotion, as it has been and is still done frequently in the sport schools or
national teams.

Future
performance t
Unexpected Expected r Desired Future
High Achievers High Achievers
Performance

Expected Unexpected
Non-Achievers Non-Achievers

Juvenile
I Performance
Selection cut off

Figure 4: Positive and negative selection effects as the consequences of the level of the cut
off-limit (adaptedfrom Zaciorski, Bulgakowa, Ragimow & Segijonko, 1974, p. 249)

Nontrivial middle cut off values (see Fig. 4) pose the problem that because they are late in
maturity, and therefore become high performers at a later point in time, that they may be ex-
cluded from specialised coaching and a supportive training environment. Very high cut offs
may indicate extraordinary gifted children, but also exclude a much bigger portion of unex-
pected high achievers. By using this method, institutions will run short of talents or, at least,
training partners or team mates. On the other hand, low thresholds as performance limits do
not contribute to the effective identification of future excellent performers.
In our opinion this dilemma can be overcome by introducing new mathematical methods that
avoid strict cut offs and deal with the trade-off between different facets of talent in a better
way. One such method is the Fuzzy Logic (Zinner, 1994). According to that concept, there is
no fixed limit discriminating optimally good from bad performances. Therefore, a smooth
transition between the two poles is preferred. According to this model, each athlete is de-
scribed by a certain probability to belong, for example, to the group of "strong athletes". The
main advantage is that in an athlete lower talent probabilities in one ability or domain can be
compensated by higher probabilities in others, as one can see in the endurance example. In the
end, every youngster shows different estimates of his abilities, and also of his talent for differ-
ent sports and therefore, the selection decision will be more profound.
Another problem is the age discriminationbias produced by the different birth dates of tested
age group children. Over 50 percent of the members of the English Football Association's
National School at Lilleshall are born in the first three months after the selection date (see Fig.
5; also Simmons & Paull, 2001). This selection bias results from greater biological age and
therefore more physical maturity than their less proficient counterparts and leads to access
better coaching and training. The main problem is that the age bias causes differences that last
throughout the career of the soccer players, so that the same 50 percent of early borns can be
found in the English National Teams during the 1986, 1990, 1994 and 1998 World Cup quali-
fications (Richardson & Stratton, 1999). Coming back to the fuzzyfication method, age can be
fuzzyfied as well.

14
16
1-41 16-18 years old
O-0 12-14 years old

._
0D

0
-o

CO)

Month of
Birth
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Uec

Figure 5: Proportionof different age groups at the Lilleshall Sport School (Helsen, Hodges,
van Winkel & Starkes, 2000, p. 370)

2.3.2 Diagnostic Criteria

Up to now only methodological problems of the talent identification process have been dis-
cussed. But of course there are also diagnostic advances. In the study conducted by Hohmann
and co-workers (2001) four diagnostic criteria stood out.

(1) Juvenileperformance
In some sports disciplines the juvenile competition performance provides good information
about future outcomes of an athlete. The predictions vary between about 20 and 65 percent,
like in high jump (Harsanyi & Martin, 1986), whereas in other sports such as the crawl sprint
this information can be obtained only after puberty (Letzelter & Freitag, 1984). The reason for
good predictions in some sports is, that these disciplines are solely determined by only a very
few performance components that remain fairly stable during puberty, e.g. body height,
throwing technique etc.

(2) Speed ofperformance development


The second criterion is the speed ofperformance development (see Fig. 6). The importance of
this criterion has been neglected very often. The reason for this lies in the methodological
problems: The better an athlete performs, the smaller are the remaining possible rates of prog-
ress in the future. To avoid the resulting bias against the better performing athletes, the per-
formance at the beginning of the time period of interest has to be partitioned out of the gain of
performance during that period. Through this process the relative speed of development is
revealed. This partitioning out can be done by regression analysis.

15
1:12- i

1:08

E 1:04-
E
F- 1:00T

0:56 G2
05 Gl
0:52 , 1 14 1 1 p

12 14 16 18 p.R.
Years

Figure 6: Different speeds offormerijuvenile performance development in better adult male


crawl sprinters (Letzelter & Freitag, 1984, p. 29)

(3) Utilisation ofperformance conditions


The third talent criterion describes to what extend an athlete uses his/her general or specific
abilities to produce a competitive performance. It is hypothesised that at least in the juvenile
stages talents do not require oversized capacities in one or more basic abilities, such as
strength or endurance. On the contrary, talents should excel more by using their resources
appropriately.
Figure 7 shows that there is indeed no difference between high (HT), normal (NT), and low
talented (LT) sprint runners in regard to the share of statistical variance that the predictors
flexibility, strength or elementary speed have in common with the criterion sprint perform-
ance. These findings confirm the utilisation hypothesis for the more general abilities at least.
Differences occur, however, when looking at more specific qualities, such as technique, co-
ordination, complex sprint speed and certain anthropometrical measures.

Dim.: LEN-Points
[XI+ 100 P.] 1= Flexibility (ns)
2= Strength & Power (ns)
3= Elementary Speed (ns)
4= Technique &Coordination
I(1-2**,1-3**,2-3ns)
- 5= Complex Speed
| || ~(1-2ns,1-3***, 2-3***)
6= Anthropometry
(1-2*, 1-3***, 2-3**)

HT
2 NT Te
.1 3 i _L ,iLT Talent Groups
2efonaoeom 4nt 6
Performnance Components

Figutre 7: Utilisation of general andspecific motor abilities in better age group swimmers

16
(4) Load tolerance
The fourth criterion is the capability of an athlete to tolerate high and maximum training loads
without getting overtrained or injured. It is evident that it is difficult for the "injury-prone"
athlete to be integrated into a profound concept of talent in sport.
The talent criterion load tolerance would not be that critical today, if coaches and trainers
would change their training strategies from starting rehabilitation after an athlete is injured, to
one that prevents injuries by increasing the amount of preventiveforms of trainingat the very
beginning of training.

2.4 Talent Training

The key factor in reaching the top level in a sport is a very effective and tolerable training
process. But even in this area a lot of questions remain unanswered.
The literature on training methodology seems to agree that the long-term training process
during sport seen under the age-group perspective has to be divided into at least three training
stages (Bompa, 1999): (a) basic education, (b) build-up training, and (c) peak performance
training. Even though practitioners unanimously accept these training stages, very little em-
pirical proof exists whether 3, or 4, or even 5 stages are better. In addition to that, there are no
scientific data that can illustrate a significant difference between the characteristics of these
training concepts.
When planning long-term training processes of young athletes, it seems to be advantageous to
put stress on the individual strengths and weaknesses. In a series of studies conducted by
Platonov and Bulatova (1993), the findings indicate that there are systematic differences in
the trainability of children in regard to speed and endurance. The same results can be hy-
pothesised for strength, flexibility and probably for co-ordination, too.
The special demands that are typical for the training of children and adolescents lead to the
question, whether age group training necessitates certain profiles of coach qualification. A
great portion of the success of certain clubs or federations is based on a superior coach tableau
in the age groups sport section.

2.5 Talent Prediction


During the final stage of the talent development process (see Fig. 1), the talented junior hope-
fully reaches his/her peak performance i.e. his/her greatest personal success.
Starting again with the talent identification aspect, one has to realise that problems surround-
ing talent prediction are no less severe than those discussed earlier. If only the best perform-
ers are left at this stage, then the problems will shift primarily to statistical and methodologi-
cal questions.
(1) Homogeneous competition performances of adult elite athletes often appear in sharp con-
trast to the occasional big differences in their individual set of physiological or psycho-
logical abilities. This fact reduces the chance to isolate specific factors that discriminate
between high and low achievers.
(2) Another statistical constraint results from the retirement of athletes not only from their
athletic career, but also from dropping out of longitudinal study samples (sample mor-
tality). Since the population of elite performance is very small in size from the begin-
ning, this loss of data affects statistical solutions in a dramatic way.
(3) Other scientific problems that result from the study duration and come up with longitudi-
nal research design are the following: Many diagnostic instruments change their validity,
some aerobic endurance tests may become more and more anaerobic, and speed tests
may no longer control movement coordination but strength abilities. The validity shift
appears most difficult with "paper and pencil"-testing, and also with questionnaire in-
17
struments. Longitudinal studies are not very attractive, especially for young investiga-
tors. Beside the methodological difficulties, the study duration and the very often un-
certain outcome seem to pose the biggest problems.
All in all, there seems to be only one coping strategy possible: rigorous quality management
of scientific research. Feasible measures could be to plan investigations in sport schools or as
a required assessment by the federation's training system. Furthermore, the design of single-
case-studies, the use of personal gratification's to athletes taking part in tests, and the filling-
in of missing data by advanced statistical techniques like multiple imputation.
Beside the problems mentioned above, results indicated that multiple interactions ofperform-
ance components might lead to mutual suppressive or enhancing effects. For example, the
interaction of strength and speed abilities may be completely positive in one athlete, and only
up to a certain limit in another one. It is quite possible that these inter-individual differences
in the personal make up of elite athletes affect scientific analyses, especially when it is done
on the basis of linear models of group statistics.
Another consequence of mutual negative and positive feedback mechanisms within the indi-
vidual set of abilities and traits is that it may cause a non-linearperformance development.
Very seldom do performance improvements develop steadily; on the contrary, in most cases
they occur in sudden spurts in a non-linear fashion.
From a synergetic point of view, the different states of performance can be regarded as at-
tractors or order parameters. The dynamics of the complex system "athlete" are only stable for
a certain stage of the training process (see Davids, 2001; Hohmann, Bulgner, Edelmann-
Nusser, Kellmann & Dobler, 2001). If the performance development of an athlete is inter-
preted from the dynamic system's perspective, then the athletic behaviour needs to be ana-
lysed by means of non-linear mathematical models that are capable to respect explicitly
"chaotic" system behaviour. One such tool is the neural netvork model. It allows distin-
guishing the different levels of talent by means of the self-organisation Kohonen feature map
method (Fig. 8) and therefore should be able to lead to a greater success rate. This method
allows to group even very different sets of individual performance components in a coherent
way. In addition, multilayer back propagation networks could be used for future talent or per-
formance predictions.

00000
C Future Drop out
00C C~ CTh (7 ~Future active, but
'-' '-' 0unsuccessful Performer
C (D 0... 0 Future Sub-elite
Performer
0000 - Future Elite Performer
0000@ (WC/OG)

Figure 8: Scheme of a self-organisingKohonen feature map solution for talent identification


purposes

2.6 Talent Perfection

The final step of the talentpromotion process (see Fig. ]) is the perfection of adolescent high
performers into elite athletes. The transition from junior to senior elite performance is proba-

18
bly the most difficult step of all. This holds true, even if the junior athlete has already success-
fully competed on a high international level in his age group.
Even though easy solutions are not readily available, it seems to be necessary to build farm
teams or plan new, attractive international competitions for junior top athletes, so that their
high motivation can be stabilized for a longer time period. But even if motivation problems do
not lead to the drop out of a hopeful junior from his athletic career, there are many scenarios
in which a young athlete is denied the opportunity to access high-quality training facilities and
if he/she is allowed to, then only on a limited basis. In this case, the preferred solution of
many promising athletes seems to be to move to a high-quality training centre in another club,
town, state or continent.

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TITLE: Scientific Aspects of Talent Development


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