Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
By Matteo Pedercini, Gunda Zullich and Kaveh Dianati, The Millennium Institute*
To meet increased demand for food Numerous studies have concluded that
spurred by a larger and richer population, routine NPK fertilization depletes SOM in
FAO projects that global agricultural the long-run (Kotschi 2013). Loss of SOM
production in 2050 will be 60 percent decreases soil productivity and the
higher than in 2005/07. Most of this agronomic efficiency of fertilizer N, calling
increase in production over the next 40 for increasingly intensive practices and
years is expected to derive from improved larger amounts of fertilizer (Mulvaney et al.
yields (FAO 2012). 2009). This dynamic is the reason some
have portrayed excessive fertilizer use as
This brief presents a model-based equivalent to an addiction.
examination of short and long-term trade-
offs between two alternate agricultural Conceptual model of fertilizer addiction
paradigms: industrial agriculture
dependent on agrochemicals, fuel-based The essence of fertilizer addiction is
mechanization and irrigation operations, captured in the causal loop diagram in
etc.; and sustainable, low external input Figure 1. Balancing feedback loop B1
agriculture centered on preservation of soil captures the introduction of industrial
organic matter (Pedercini, Zullich and agriculture practices as a (short-term)
Dianati 2014a, 2014b). The associated solution to low yields, intending to directly
policy implications for long-term increase soil nutrients and bring yield closer
sustainability in agricultural yields, and to a given target. Reinforcing feedback
food security, are huge. loop R1 describes the mechanism where
intensified use of industrial practices
Industrial agriculture practices are used as a damages SOM, reducing mineralization
cost-effective form of insurance against low and available soil nutrients. This leads to
yields, without regard to their inherent lower than otherwise yield, intensifying the
effect on the ecosystems below the soil’s need for industrial practices.
surface. This has led to a net loss of soil
organic matter observed in numerous long- The implication of the loss of SOM on yield
term studies of chemical-based cropping is not immediately evident, because rapid
systems. Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition of organic matter releases
consists of plant residues and animal large amounts of nutrients that boost yield
manure at various stages of decomposition, in the short run. The reduction of SOM
cells and tissues of soil organisms, and undermines natural mineralization only
substances synthesized by soil organisms. after some years. Feedback loop R2
SOM improves water-holding capacity and exacerbates this vicious dynamic by
aeration, enhances absorption and release undermining nitrogen use efficiency,
of nutrients, and makes soil less susceptible implying the need for larger amounts of
to leaching and erosion. fertilizer to maintain high yields.
*The views and opinions expressed are the authors’ and do not represent those of the Secretariat of the United
Nations. Online publication or dissemination does not imply endorsement by the United Nations. Corresponding
author is Matteo Pedercini, mp@millennium-institute.org.
The reinforcing loops R1 and R2 are Industrial vs. sustainable practices
eventually stabilized by two distinct
mechanisms, not shown in the CLD for To assess industrial vs. sustainable
simplicity. In the case of R1, the loss of practices three scenarios are presented:
SOM gradually decreases as the more
unstable SOM is depleted. In the case of Maize-NIL: intensive practices, including
R2, as nitrogen efficiency decreases, a point detrimental practices such as tillage, mono-
is reached where further increasing cropping, burning crops residues, etc.,
nitrogen input does not make economic without external inputs (including
sense. fertilizers); Maize-N: industrial practice, as
above, but including extensive use of
fertilizers; and Maize-S: sustainable
desired yield cultivation, crop rotation, integrated
fertilizer and pest management, cover
desired increase
in yield crops, etc.
yield
B1
Mineral nitrogen (Figure 2) shows
available soil
overshoot patterns for all three scenarios.
external input and
nutrients industrial practices Under intensive practice mineral nitrogen
R1 local input and initially rises while SOM (simulated SOM
soil organic
sustainable practices not shown here) quickly decomposes,
mineralization matter
causing rapid nitrogen mineralization.
R2 Following the decline in SOM, and drastic
nitrogen decline in SOM decay due to increasing
efficiency
chemical stability of remaining organic
Figure 1 - Causal Loop Diagram of fertilizer matter, mineral nitrogen availability falls
addiction (Pedercini, Zullich and Dianati,
rapidly.
2014b).
Under industrial agriculture, mineral
Formal Model
nitrogen initially rises rapidly as
To simulate the above-described dynamics decomposition of SOM accelerates. This
we have built a stock-and-flow model initial tendency is further strengthened by
(Pedercini, Zullich and Dianati, 2014a, usage of N-fertilizer seeking higher yields.
2014b). The model structure reflects how This trend is reversed once the loss of the
the stocks of soil carbon (our proxy for less stable SOM reduces mineralization,
SOM) and mineral nitrogen interact and and ability of the soil to retain N-fertilizer
evolve, and how industrial agriculture decreases. Attempting to counteract this
practices moderate this interaction. decline, the farmer applies increasingly
larger amounts of fertilizer, up to a point
The model is parameterized to represent where it no longer makes economic sense
soil characteristics at a location in Kisii to increase fertilizer usage. The continuous
District, Kenya. Initial conditions reflect soil use of industrial practices kills even more
conditions of natural grasslands. The organic matter, bringing fertilizer efficiency
expansion of industrial agriculture in Kenya lower, further exacerbating the problem, in
is a highly relevant issue. The formal model, a classic example of policy resistance.
however applies equally well to other
agroecological zones.
2
Under sustainable practices, mineral adaptation starting at year 20 (Maize-N-
nitrogen follows a much smoother Shock-PreAdaptation).
trajectory. The initial rise in this case is less
steep because sustainable practices are less Mineral Nitrogen
demanding on SOM, with decomposition 2
and mineralization happening at slower
rates, and also due to absence of mineral 1.5 Maize-N-Shock-
fertilization application. Consequently, the PreAdaptation
(Ton/Ha)
ensuing fall is much less precipitous as a Maize-N-
1 Shock-
result of better conserved soil organic
matter. However, without the introduction
of any mineral fertilizer or N-fixating crops, 0.5
Maize-S-Shock
nitrogen in the Maize-S scenario tends to
Maize-N-Shock
be lower than in the Maize-N scenario, 0
although by a decreasing margin. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Year)
2
Mineral Nitrogen Figure 3 - Mineral nitrogen in soil under
fertilizer scarcity shock (Pedercini, Zullich and
Dianati 2014a).
1.5 Maize-N
In Figure 3, following the fertilizer scarcity
(Ton/Ha)