Weather Synopsis - November 2015.

Intermonsoon conditions prevailed through out the month. Generally the month was a wet month and
almost all meteorological stations reported above normal rainfalls. There were four ( 1-2nd ,5-8th 12-
15th and 28-30th ) widespread rainy spells during the month. Due to formation of depressions in Bay of
Bengal resulted wide spread rain during 5-8th and 12-15th and low level disturbances over and vicinity
of Sri Lanka caused other two rainy spells. Extremely very heavy rainfall (350.9 mm ) had been
reported on 15th from Manner and it was the ever recorded highest 24 hour rainfall at the station. A
local flood situation also was reported on 15th in Puttalam Colombo and Badulla districts. Around
79000 people in 14 districts including N’Eliya, Badulla, Batticaloa, Gampaha, Trincomale, Matale,
Jaffna, Kilinochchie and Mulathive were said to be affected by heavy rain and 3 casualties also were
reported due to flood situation. Another landslide had been reported from Urubokka in Galle district on
25th. There was intense convective activity resulting in heavy rain and thunder in 29th in Southern and
Uva provinces. Five casualties (4 from Northern, Northcentral and Eastern provinces and another one
from Kegalle, one Apura) were reported due to lightning strikes during the month.

The ITCZ and Shear line indicated transition characteristics. ITCZ and the shear line was between
01N and 06N and, between 01S and 06S respectively. From 26th onwards, ITCZ showed two limits,
the north limit fluctuated between 02N and 06N and the south limit fluctuated between 02S and 06S.
During the rest of the month,

Weather Systems:
There were number of cyclonic disturbances
associated with ITCZ in the southwest Bay of
Bengal(BOB) during the month. The Deep
Depression(DD) over the Bay of Bengal during
08-10th November 2015, formed from low level
disturbance to the Southeast of Sri Lanka on 5th and
intensified in to a low pressure area on 06th that

Dundee Satellite image at 02.30p.m.on 09th November 2015

lay over southwest BOB . It concentrated into a
depression over southwest BOB close to Sri Lanka
coasts on 08th. Moving initially west-northwestward , it intensified into a DD on the same day. It
subsequently moved slowly north-westwards towards north Tamil Nadu coast on 09th and made

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landfall over north Tamil Nadu coast close to north of Puducherry evening on 09th .It was the first
cyclonic disturbance over the BOB during the October-December of 2015.

Another depression over BOB during 13-

16th November 2015, formed from a
disturbance to the Southeast of Sri Lanka
on 12th . It gradually intensified into a low
pressure area on 13th and initially moved
west- Northwestward towards Sri Lanka. It
was to the East of Sri Lanka and on 13th . It
th
Dundee Satellite image at 02.30p.m.on 15 November 2015
moved westward and made landfall over
Mulative coast on 14th and moved across the country and entered to the Gulf of Mannar sea area
through Mannar coats. Then it moved northward and it was to the North of Sri Lanka on 15 th causing
extremly heavy rainfall at Mannar(350.9mm) on 15th evening . It continued to move northward along
the Indian coast until 18th and dissipated over north BOB .
The activity over BOB in terms of frequency and intensity of cyclonic disturbances has been
below normal during this season,mainly due to the fact that 2015 is a strong El Nino year and
El Nino has adverse impact on cyclonic activity over BOB.

There were number of cyclonic disturbances associated with ITCZ in the Arabian sea . An Extremely
Severe Cyclonic Storm 'Chapala' formed from a low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea around
25th October which concentrated into a depression in the morning of 28th October. It moved north-
northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression in the same evening. It further intensified into a
cyclonic storm in the early hours of
29th over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It
then moved west-northwestwards,
further intensified into a severe
cyclonic storm in the evening and a
very severe cyclonic storm in the
midnight of 29th and into an
extremely severe cyclonic storm in
Dundee Satellite image at 11.30 a.m.on 02nd November 2015 the morning of 30th . It then moved
mainly westwards, maintained its intensity till 1st November and then started weakening gradually.
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Moving west-northwestwards, it crossed Yemen coast to the southwest of Riyan on 3rd November as
very severe cyclonic storm.

Another depression formed over the eastcentral Arabian Sea on 5th November from a low level
circulation over Sri Lanka and neighbourhood around 26th October. It stagnated over Sri Lankan
region causing widespread showers until end of the month and moved Arabian sea on 30 th October and
moved westwards/west-southwestwards and gradually intensified into a cyclonic storm at 1200 UTC
of 5th November. It continued its west-southwestward movement and intensified into a very severe
cyclonic storm on the same day and rapidly intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm on 8th
Maintaining its peak intensity for a short period of about 6 hrs, it weakened gradually into a VSCS at
0000 UTC of 9th. It weakened rapidly into deep depression on 10th. It recurved northeastwards and
crossed Yemen coast on 10th as a DD.
In the south Indian ocean, there was a cyclonic disturbance during the month . It developed near 8.5S
80E to the south of Sri Lanka on 17th, initially moved southwestward and subsequently moved
southward while deepening in to a tropical storm and dissipated. by 23rd.

Pressure and wind field: Over the island, pressure values were below or about average except for a
few days. On 09th there was a moderate southwesterly pressure gradient and mild Notheasterly
gradient on 03rd and 20th and southerly gradient on 15th while in the other days the distribution was
either even or fairly even. The highest mean sea level pressure in the region of Madagascar was
1023.9 on 05th 0600Z (approximately similar to previous month's value ) and in the China mainland
was 1041.6 on 23rd 1800Z (almost similar to previous month's value).
Surface wind over the island was predominantly light and variable in direction during the month. The
maximum wind recorded at Colombo 10m level anemometer was 21 knots on 24th around 18 hours.

Upper winds:
At 850hpa, at the beginning of the month, the trough axis with the vortices was over the latitudes just
North of Sri Lanka and fluctuated within Sri Lankan region until mid of the month and then migrated
northwards to 16N on 17th with the movement of a depression. Afterwards it marched southwards
again over Sri Lankan region and stagnated there until end of the month. Mostly moderate westerly to
North-westerly winds prevailed during (8th to 19th) middle part of the month and during 27-28th. In this
period vortices appeared over the northern parts of Sri Lanka and in the vicinity in the Bay of Bengal

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 Week 1
Week 2

Week 3 Week 4

area. Rest of the month, the wind was north-easterly and the vortices associated with the trough axis
was over the southern parts of the island (figure-01).

Figure-01 Weekly average wind pattern at 850hpa level during the month of November 2015

Trough axis Ridge axis

At 700hpa, at the beginning of the month, the trough axis with the vortices was over the latitudes just
North of Sri Lanka and fluctuated within Sri Lankan region until mid of the month and then migrated
northwards to 14N on 17th with the movement of a depression. Afterwards it marched southwards
again and by 20th it was over Sri Lankan region and stagnated there until end of the month. Mostly
moderate westerly to North-westerly winds prevailed during 8th to 19th and during 27-28th . In this
period vortices appeared over the northern parts of Sri Lanka and in the vicinity in the Bay of Bengal
area. Rest of the month, the wind was light to moderate and north-easterly and the vortices associated
with the said trough axis was lying to the south of our latitudes.(Figure-02)

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 Week-01 Week-02

Week-03 Week-04

Figure-02) Weekly average wind pattern at 700hpa level during the month of November 2015

Trough axis Ridge axis

At 500 hPa, the wind was mild and north easterly till 09th became light to moderate and north-westerly
to westerly till 11th. It became easterly to north easterly till 1came Sothwesterly or variable until 18 th .
Afterwards it strengthened into moderate during 20-24th and was light to moderate and easterly to
southeasterly during the rest of the month. Mild vortices were observed over or the vicinity of Sri
Lanka in the majority of the days of the month.

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 Week-02
Week-01

Week-03 Week-04

Figure-03) Weekly average wind pattern at 500hpa level during the month of November 2015

Trough axis Ridge axis

The 200 hpa wind was mostly easterly to south easterly with the speed varying between15 and 30
knots except during 8-9th and on 11th and 14th when it was 30-40kts. The sub tropical ridge was lying
between 16N and12N.
Temperature Field:
The maximum temperatures in the day were mostly below or about normal in most places during
first half of the month, and about or above average rest of the month except during 28th when it was
below average. It was below normal over most places during 13-15th and more than 50C below normal
at Kurunegala, Mahailluppallama and Rathnapura on 15th and 3-40C below normal at most places on
14th. Day temperatures were more than 40C degrees above normal at Trincomalee area during 10-11th .

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Night minimum temperatures over most parts were about or 1-20C above normal during the month
except Trincomalee where it was about or 1-20C below normal. At NuwaraEliya night temperatures
were around 2-30C degrees above normal during 13-17th .
Maximum and Minimum departures from normal day/night temperature were shown in table 1.

Rainfall: Rain or convective showers were fairly widespread during 1-2nd,5-8th , 12-15th and 28-30th .
The daily rainfalls recorded on 2nd , 5th and during 12-15th and on 19th , 25th and 29th were very
heavy(more than 150mm) at several places especially in the Northern, Eastern and Northcentral with a
maximum daily rainfall of 350.9 mm at Mannar on 15th and 304.3mm at Yarn oya in Trincomalee
district on 13th .
The table 2 and the figures 1 and 2 shows the total rainfall and the number of rain days at the principal
meteorological stations recorded in the month against the respective averages. The rainfall during the
month was above average at almost all stations except Bandarawela where it was about average.
Mannar and Jaffna reported more than 200% of their averages. Number of rain days were also
reported above average. In the case of rainfalls in Hydro catchment areas, above average rainfalls were
reported from all catchment areas.

Table 1(a) - Extremes of Maximum Temperatures NoNovember 2015

Maximum
Offsets Highest
Value (-) (+) Std.Div
Value 34.4 5.5 4.2 2.02
Station Rathnapura Rathnapura Trincomalee Mahailluppallama
Date 23/11/2015 15/11/2015 11/11/2015
Table 1(b) -Extremes of Minimum Temperature November 2015
Minimum
Offsets Highest
Value (-) (+) Std.Div
Value 10 2.2 3.1 1.26
Station NuwaraEliya Mannar Nuwara Eliya Nuwara Eliya
Date 27/11/2015 16/11/2015 15/11/2015

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 Monthly Total No of rainy
Meteorological Monthly Total rainfall(mm) Days
station 15-Nov Average % 15-Nov Average %
Anuradapura 452.4 229.7 197% 23 16 144%
Badulla 426.2 253 168% 22 18 122%
Bandarawela 218.7 224.3 98% 19 16 119%
Batticaloa 516.9 349.6 148% 20 16 125%
Colombo 525.8 414.4 127% 22 15 147%
Galle 354.1 321 110% 19 16 119%
Hambantota 228.2 187.5 122% 15 13 115%
Jaffna 757.6 336.1 225% 26 14 186%
Katugastota 385.6 295.6 130% 20 16 125%
Katunayaka 556.3 313.7 177% 22 14 157%
Kurunegala 422 318.6 132% 17 15 113%
MahaIlluppallama. 426.7 250.4 170% 23 16 144%
Mannar 608.4 235 259% 18 14 129%
Nuwara Eliya 280.2 221.7 126% 19 17 112%
Pottuvil 306.1 232 132% 22 NA NA
Puttalam 416.0 250.3 166% 18 14 129%
Ratmalana 356.4 314.7 113% 23 16 144%
Ratnapura 468.4 371.4 126% 21 18 117%
Trincomalee 647.7 342.9 189% 22 16 138%
Vavuniya 402.6 278.2 145% 24 16 150%
Polonnaruwa 348.1 308.6 113% 21 13 162%
Monaragala 383.5 20
Table-02-Monthly Total Rainfall(mm) and monthly total no of rainy days with 30 years (1961-1990)
of their averages at main Meteorological stations during November 2015
Note that the meteorological day in this text is reckoned as the 24hr period from 08.30hrs to
08.30hrs following day

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 Hydro Catchment 15-November Average % (percentage of average)
Castlereigh 396.4 276.3 143%
Norton 521.3 350.5 149%
Maussakele 386.6 275.8 140%
Canyon 369.9 299.8 123%
Laksapana 519.5 390.6 133%
Kotmale 280.0 253.1 111%
Victoriya 326.8 261.8 125%
Randenigala 433.6 314.9 138%
Bowatenna 519.8 450.7 115%
Ukuwela 390.3 272.1 143%
Samanala Wewa 518.5 342.3 151%

Table-03-Monthly Total Rainfall(mm) with 30 years(1961-1990) of their averages at Hydro catchment

areas during November 2015

Graph-01 Daily rainfall Distribution at main Meteorological stations during November 2015

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 Graph-02-Monthly Total Rainfall(mm) with 30 years(1961-1990) of their averages at main
Meteorological stations during November 2015

Graph-03-Monthly Total no of Rainy Days with 30 years(1961-1990) of their averages at main

Meteorological stations during November 2015

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Graph-04-Monthly Total Rainfall(mm) with 30 years (1961-1990) of their averages at Hydro
catchment areas during November 2015

Prepared by National Meteorological Centre (NMC)

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