Cross-Border Connectivity Paper Final PDF

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL BOARD PAPER
COMPETITION IN THE MARKET FOR

MYANMAR CROSS
CROSS-BORDER
BORDER CONNECTIVITY
July 22, 2015
CONFIDENTIAL © Campa
Campana Group Pte Ltd.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 MPT ................................................................................................................................................... 4
1.2 Other Potential Competitors ............................................................................................................ 4
1.3 Network Reliability............................................................................................................................ 5
1.4 Capacity ............................................................................................................................................. 5
1.4.1 Current Situation........................................................................................................................... 5
1.4.2 Three-Year Outlook ....................................................................................................................... 7
1.5 MYTHIC Competitive Advantages ..................................................................................................... 7
2. Routes ................................................................................................................................................... 8
2.1 Submarine ......................................................................................................................................... 8
2.1.1 SEA-ME-WE-3 ................................................................................................................................ 9
2.1.2 AAE-1 ........................................................................................................................................... 11
2.1.3 SEA-ME-WE-5 .............................................................................................................................. 13
2.1.4 MYTHIC........................................................................................................................................ 15
2.1.5 MIC .............................................................................................................................................. 17
2.2 Terrestrial ........................................................................................................................................ 18
2.2.1 Myawaddy-Mae Sai..................................................................................................................... 19
2.2.2 Tachileik-Mae Sot........................................................................................................................ 19
2.2.3 Muse-Ruili ................................................................................................................................... 20
2.2.4 Tamu-Moreh ............................................................................................................................... 21
2.2.5 Tachileik-Laos .............................................................................................................................. 21
2.3 Satellite ........................................................................................................................................... 21
2.4 Fault History .................................................................................................................................... 21
2.4.1 Dyn Transit Traffic Data for Myanmar ........................................................................................ 22
2.4.2 Traffic Data Analysis .................................................................................................................... 23
3. Pricing.................................................................................................................................................. 25
4. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 26
5. Appendix I - Submarine Cable Database ............................................................................................. 28
6. Appendix II - Outage Data ................................................................................................................... 30
CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

List of Figures
Figure 1: Average Period between Outages by Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015....................... 5
Figure 2: Myanmar Traffic Map as of July 23rd 2015..................................................................................... 6
Figure 3: Summary of Myanmar's International Submarine Fibre Routes ................................................... 8
Figure 4: Summary of Myanmar's Terrestrial Fibre Cross-Border Routes .................................................... 8
Figure 5: SEA-ME-WE-3 Cable Map & Parameters ....................................................................................... 9
Figure 6: AAE-1 Cable Map & Parameters .................................................................................................. 11
Figure 7: SEA-ME-WE-5 Cable Map & Parameters ..................................................................................... 13
Figure 8: MYTHIC Cable Map & Parameters ............................................................................................... 15
Figure 9: MIC Cable Map & Parameters ..................................................................................................... 17
Figure 10: Myanmar Domestic Long-Haul and International Fibre Connections ....................................... 18
Figure 11: MPT IP Transit Correspondents 1st Half 2015 ............................................................................ 20
Figure 12: Outages & Instabilities in Myanmar April-July 2015.................................................................. 22
Figure 13: Typical Weekly IP Transit Traffic Patterns in Myanmar ............................................................. 23
Figure 14: Average Period between Outages by Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015................... 24
Figure 15: Average Outage Duration by Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015................................ 24
Figure 16: Total Downtime by Carrier & Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015 ............................... 25
Figure 17: Myanmar 1-Year Lease Bandwidth Pricing Research 2H 2014 .................................................. 26
Figure 18: Database of Submarine Cables Serving or Planned to Serve Myanmar .................................... 29
Figure 19: Service Outage History March 11-July 22 2015 ......................................................................... 30

1. Executive Summary
This paper is for the exclusive use of the Campana Board of Directors and describes the current
competitive situation in the Myanmar market for cross-border wholesale international bandwidth,
whether via submarine cables or via terrestrial routes. These routes are identified and described and
then the companies that own and operate on these routes are described. Information in this Board
Paper has been gathered from the market in the last twelve months and is therefore "current" although
it should be kept in mind that this market is in its early stage of development and its characteristics are
therefore evolving rapidly.
1.1 MPT
As a typical monopoly provider in an emerging market that has been politically and economically
isolated for more than thirty years, MPT suffers from a high cost base, lack of investment, a burden of
legacy systems, outdated and inefficient procedures, operational standards that do not meet
international norms, and an old-fashioned view of its role in the market.
With KDDI's investment of US$1 billion in MPT via the joint operating company, "KDDI Summit Global
Myanmar", one might expect to see improvements in MPT's international service but Campana
understands that most of this investment will be targeted at helping MPT's mobile operation compete
with the newly licensed foreign mobile operators. Furthermore, Campana understands that the budget
for MPT investment in international connectivity is still controlled by the Ministry of Communications
and Information Technology and not by the new joint operating company.
1.2 Other Potential Competitors
The other Nationwide Telecommunications Licence holders, Telenor, Ooredoo, and Yatanarpon Teleport
(YTP) could conceivably enter into the wholesale international bandwidth market. However, both
Telenor and Ooredoo have committed to challenging targets for mobile network coverage over the next
five years and submarine cables are not part of their core business. Telenor and Ooredoo have built
separate terrestrial fibre routes from Yangon to the border with Thailand but these links require the co-
operation of MPT and, as evidenced by Figure 13 below, are highly unreliable.
YTP is partly owned by MPT and there is uncertainty over ownership of the company's assets which is
hindering YTP's search for a strategic investor. It is therefore unlikely that YTP will be in a position in the
near future to invest in international submarine connectivity.
Campana's is the only NFS(I) licence application submitted for permission to operate an international
submarine fibre optic cable system landing in Myanmar. An NFS(I) licence is known to have been issued
to an international satellite operator, Shwe Than Lwin Media, which offers Direct to Home (DTH)
satellite pay TV nationwide in Myanmar. However, satellite technology is unable to compete with either
submarine or terrestrial fibre in terms of the scale of capacity that it can deliver and is limited in the

wholesale international bandwidth market to providing service in remote locations where it is too
expensive to build fibre.
1.3 Network Reliability
As shown in Figure 1 below, all of the licensed national operators described in sections 1.1 and 1.2
above are struggling, sometimes daily, to keep their activated international capacity operational.
12.0
11.3
10.0
8.0
Days
6.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.9
0.0
MPT Ooredoo Telenor
Figure 1: Average Period between Outages by Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015
Section 2.3 of this paper goes into some detail, examining the data that has been made available to
Campana on network performance in Myanmar, but, in summary, there were 639 hours of network
downtime between MPT, Ooredoo, and Telenor over a period of under four and a half months to July
2015.
1.4 Capacity
1.4.1 Current Situation
Campana's analysis shows that Myanmar currently has approximately 50-60 Gbit/s of international
capacity available.
There is approximately 10 Gbit/s of lit and activated capacity on the SEA-ME-WE-3 submarine cable
branch into Myanmar. MPT's allocation of capacity on this system is currently at 100% utilisation.
On the terrestrial side, there are two significant underground fibre routes into Thailand and one into
China. Thai routes amount to about 42 Gbit/s while Chinese routes amount to approximately 5 Gbit/s.
Figure 2 below shows Dyn's view of how Myanmar operators are obtaining international connectivity.

Source: Dyn
rd
Figure 2: Myanmar Traffic Map as of July 23 2015
Figure 2 above shows a representation of the roughly 60 routes currently available to Myanmar operators for international connectivity based on Dyn'ss measurement of responding Autonomous Systems (AS). The key distinguishes
between different AS types. Operators shown to the left are classified by Dyn as "Retail" whereas operators further to the right are "Wholesale". Lines indicate direct connections between
between operators although these connections, in
most cases, will physically pass through MPT facilities. Exceptions are the Telenor route to DTAC in Thailand which was commi
commissioned
ssioned without MPT's knowledge, and possibly Ooredoo's route to Hutchison also in Thailand. SingTel's
route to Ooredoo is suspected to be via SEASEA-ME-WE-3.3. The figures on each route line indicate the number of routes / number of IP address spaces. While conclusions about capacity
capacity cannot be drawn from these numbers, they give
an indication
n of the relative significance of each route.
CONFIDENTIAL © Campana
na Group Pte Ltd.
1.4.2 Three-Year Outlook
MPT has made public announcements aiming for 120 Gbit/s of lit international capacity by the end of
2015 and 200 Gbit/s by 2017. This may be an underestimate of demand. Significant amounts of unlit
capacity, which will be sufficient to meet demand in Myanmar for the next 20 years, will become
available on various routes in this time period, served by at least three new submarine fibre optic cables
including "MYTHIC", and terrestrial routes into Thailand and Malaysia. The amount of capacity that is lit,
however, will depend on each competitor's market share and their ability to invest in capacity upgrades.
1.5 MYTHIC Competitive Advantages
MYTHIC's competitive advantages are:
• NFS(I) licence with "submarine" is unique

• Reliability through minimal terrestrial network
• Flexibility & customer responsiveness through private company structure
• Lowest cost base through private company structure
• Sufficient cash flow to support capacity upgrades whenever necessary
• Ease of interconnection at POP close to Yangon, Thilawa SEZ, and planned Thanlyin ICT Park
In summary, the MYTHIC cable's addressable market is currently served by a monopoly that is in a weak
competitive position. Access to new consortium cables will provide MPT with potentially more capacity
but it will still suffer from a myriad of challenges to modernise. With the protection of a well-drafted and
transparent regulatory regime, a licensed private greenfield operation, such as the MYTHIC submarine
cable, should be able to establish itself and grow market share through higher quality and more reliable
service, customer responsiveness, flexibility, and lower prices.

2. Routes
Myanmar is served by both terrestrial fibre and submarine fibre routes, all of which will compete with
the new route offered by MYTHIC. Figure 3 and Figure 4 below summarise the competitive environment
presently operating in Myanmar and in the immediate future:
Capacity Landing
Type Name Description Owners Status
(Gbit/s) Party
Submarine SEA-ME-WE-3 Branch off Asia-Europe cable Consortium inc. MPT Existing 10* MPT
AAE-1 Branch off Asia-Europe cable Consortium inc. China Unicom RFS 2017 40,000 MPT
SEA-ME-WE-5 Branch off Asia-Europe cable Consortium inc. MPT RFS 2017 24,000 MPT
MYTHIC Myanmar-Malaysia & Thailand Campana Group RFS 2016 20,000 Campana
MIC India-Myanmar Vodafone ? ? Vodafone?
*Available to MPT today
Figure 3: Summary of Myanmar's International Submarine Fibre Routes
To Route Status Cores Owner Correspondents

Thailand Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Pyaw-Tachileik Existing 96 CAT, TOT, dtac,
(Mae Sot) Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Pyaw-Tachileik Existing 96 Symphony, I-Link
MPT, Redlink
Thailand Yangon-Thaton-Myawaddy Existing 48 CAT, TOT, JasTel,
(Mae Sai) Yangon-Mawlamyaung-Myawaddy RFS 2015 ? True
China Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Mandalay-Muse Existing 96 China Unicom,
China Unicom
(Ruili) Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Mandalay-Lashio-Muse Existing 96 CT, PT Telkom
India Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Mandalay-Katha-Tamu 2016 ?
MPT Tata
(Moreh) Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Bagan-Pakkoku-Tamu 2015 48
Laos (Nam
Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Pyaw-Tachileik Existing ? MPT Viettel
Yone)
Figure 4: Summary of Myanmar's Terrestrial Fibre Cross-Border Routes
2.1 Submarine
The following brief profiles characterise the competitive position of each submarine fibre optic cable
system which is either already serving Myanmar or is planned to do so in the near future. More
comprehensive data on each cable is available in section 5 Appendix I - Submarine Cable Database.

2.1.1 SEA-ME-WE-3
Route Total Capacity Current Lit

System or
Cable Name Owners Status RFS Year Length after Upgrades Capacity
Segment
(km) (Gbit/s) (Gbit/s)
System SEA-ME-WE-3 In service 2000 39,000 560 560
SEA-ME-WE-3 S04 (Tuas,

Consortium inc.
Singapore-Medan,
MPT, CAT, SingTel,
Indonesia-Penang, Malaysia-
TM, CT
Segment Satun, Thailand-Pyapon, In service 1999 5,250 ? ?
Myanmar- Mount Lavinia, Sri
Lanka-Cochin, India-Mumbai,
India)
Figure 5: SEA-ME-WE-3 Cable Map & Parameters
SEA-ME-WE-3's 47 consortium members include: Orange, KDDI, SingTel, Telecom Italia Sparkle, Telekom
Malaysia, CAT Telecom, China Telecom, PT Indonesia Satellite Corp., KT, Tata Communications, Telstra,
Vietnam Telecom International, PCCW, Myanmar Post and Telecommunication, and Vodafone.
SEA-ME-WE-3 is Myanmar's only current submarine fibre optic connection to the rest of the World but,
according to Deputy Chief Engineer, MPT, Win Aung in January 2015, the branch off SEA-ME-WE-3 into
Pyapon, Myanmar had only 10 Gbit/s lit with 6.8 Gbit/s active until the end of 2014. Upgrade #5 took

place in January 2015 and increased lit capacity on the branch to 50 Gbit/s (5 x 10G). The impending
arrival of SEA-ME-WE-5 means that further upgrades to SEA-ME-WE-3 are unlikely.
SEA-ME-WE-3's Myanmar branch is also beset with maintenance issues. Although the submarine branch
itself, from Pyapon to BU 44, has remained relatively stable since RFS with only 2-3 outages, the
fronthaul segment to the CLS and the backhaul segment from the CLS to MPT's "8-Mile" international
exchange have suffered more than 20 outages over the same time period. Many of these outages could
have been prevented if MPT's construction and operational procedures were up to international
standards. Furthermore, SEA-ME-WE-3 has seen 16 faults on the segments through the Melaka Strait
between BU44 and Singapore, mainly close to Tuas and particularly associated with Repeaters 8 & 9.
Overall, the market recognises that SEA-ME-WE-3 is inadequate to serve even Myanmar's current needs,
let alone satisfy future growth in demand.

2.1.2 AAE-1

System or
Segment
System AAE-1 (Asia-Africa-Europe) Consortium inc. Planned 2016 25,000 40,000 0

China Unicom,
PCCW, Ooredoo,
AAE-1 (BU8-Ngwe Saung,
Segment TOT, Time dotCom Planned 2016 425 ? 0
Myanmar)
Figure 6: AAE-1 Cable Map & Parameters
AAE-1's 15 consortium members include: China Unicom, PCCW, Ooredoo, TOT, Viettel Corporation, and
Reliance Jio Infocomm. TOT is the landing party in Thailand. Time dotCom is the landing party in
Malaysia.
The AAE-1 cable connects Asia and Europe and has a branch into Ngwe Saung, Myanmar along the
segment which connects Singapore to Djibouti. This branch has been funded to the tune of US$40M by
China Unicom as part of the Chinese Government's "Silk Road" initiative to improve China's connectivity
with the rest of the world and in particular with emerging markets. From Ngwe Saung, China Unicom has
also funded and MPT has built a terrestrial cable via Pathein, Yangon, and Nay Pyi Taw, to Muse and
across the border with China to Ruili, ultimately terminating in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

China Unicom does not have a licence to operate in Myanmar. Consequently, they have no traffic "drop-
off' rights anywhere in Myanmar. Traffic on the branch of AAE-1 will pass through Myanmar without
being terminated. As such, AAE-1 could be discounted as a competitor in the market that is the focus of
this paper. However, Campana considers it prudent to assume that MPT will get some capacity out of
this deal. Campana has confirmed this in an informal conversation with a representative of China
Unicom.
At the ITW conference in Chicago May 2015, the AAE-1 Chairman, Mr. Joseph Chan of PCCW, stated that
the RFS of this system is "more or less the fourth quarter of 2016". However, there are rumours in the
market that this date will slip because of security problems along the coast of Somalia and because of
the anti-corruption campaign pursued by the Chinese government which is having an impact on China
Unicom, one of the instigators of the project. One credible industry source went as far as to suggest that
RFS would be in 2018.

2.1.3 SEA-ME-WE-5

System or
Segment
System SEA-ME-WE-5 Planned 2016 20,000 24,000 0
Consortium inc.
TM, CT, China
Unicom, MPT,
SEA-ME-WE-5 S22 (BU10-
Segment Telin, SingTel Planned 2016 420 ? 0
Ngwe Saung, Myanmar)
Figure 7: SEA-ME-WE-5 Cable Map & Parameters
SEA-ME-WE-5's consortium members include: Telekom Malaysia, Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone
Board (BTTB), China Mobile, China Telecom, Orange, Myanmar Post and Telecommunication, Telkom
Indonesia, TOT, SingTel, Telecom Italia Sparkle, and China Unicom. TM is the landing party for SEA-ME-
WE-5 in Malaysia. There is currently no landing party arranged for Thailand. Discussions with AIS
continue but the current design foresees a stubbed BU off Thailand. It is also notable that the SEA-ME-
WE-5 consortium has chosen not to land directly in Singapore but to use TM's terrestrial network.

At the ITW conference in Chicago May 2015, the panel of members from the SEA-ME-WE-5 consortium
stated that RFS would occur before the end of 2016 but Kurohashi-san of KDDI Summit Global Myanmar,
the joint operating company with MPT, stated in April 2015 that RFS had slipped to "some time in 2017".
MPT has signed the C&MA for SEA-ME-WE-5 and paid US$25M with a further $15M due at RFS when
MPT will get access to 3 x 100 Gbit/s wavelengths.
SEA-ME-WE-5 is the main competitive threat to MYTHIC from other submarine cables but, with MPT as
the owner and landing party, it will likely suffer from similar sub-standard construction and operating
policies which have beset SEA-ME-WE-3. Furthermore, the fronthaul is planned to extend from Ngwe
Saung to a CLS in Pathein almost 40 km away and the backhaul will stretch over 200 km to Yangon.
Campana has surveyed Ngwe Saung and found that there is, as yet, no commercial power available at
this location. Based on the maintenance history of SEA-ME-WE-3 (see section 2.1.1 above), the overly
long back haul must make SEA-ME-WE-5 more vulnerable to accidental damage than MYTHIC which has
much shorter terrestrial segments.

2.1.4 MYTHIC

System or
Segment
System MYTHIC Planned 2016 1,603 20,000 0

Campana Group
MYTHIC (S01 Thanlyin-
Segment Planned 2016 1,546 20,000 0
Penang)
Figure 8: MYTHIC Cable Map & Parameters
The MYTHIC ("Myanmar-Malaysia-Thailand International Cable") submarine fibre optic cable project
consists of a 1,546 km main trunk containing 2 fibre pairs and a number of repeaters, and connecting a
Campana-owned cable landing station (CLS) in Thanlyin Township, 18 km south-east of Myanmar's
commercial centre, Yangon, to a TIME dotCom-owned CLS in Kuala Muda, Penang State, Malaysia; an 87

km 2-fibre pair unrepeatered branch off the main trunk landing at a Loxley Wireless-owned CLS in Satun,
Thailand; and an optional 193 km 2-fibre pair branch into the port of Dawei, in southern Myanmar.
This cable route has been engineered for high reliability. Subject to the results of a marine survey as part
of the turnkey supply contract, Campana expects cable burial to 1.5m for those parts of the route which
are in <1000m water depths (c.970 km); 190 km of double armouring for those parts of the cable
systems which are in very shallow water; 830 km of single armoured cable; and 495 km of lightweight
protected cable in deep water.
The MYTHIC submarine cable system will be built using the latest commercially available 100 Gbit/s
Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM), Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH), Optical Transport
Network (OTN), and coherent optical technology but the ultimate design capacity of the system is likely
to be higher than this because it will be upgradeable with 400 Gbit/s and possibly 1,000 Gbit/s
technology when this technology becomes available.

2.1.5 MIC

System or
Segment
System MIC Proposed TBA 1,942 TBA 0

Vodafone
Segment MIC Proposed TBA TBA TBA 0
Figure 9: MIC Cable Map & Parameters
Vodafone has not gone beyond the concept stage of this project which is recorded here more as a proxy
for another private cable system that could be introduced to the Myanmar market in the near term.
term
CONFIDENTIAL © Campa
Campana Group Pte Ltd.
2.2 Terrestrial
Figure 10: Myanmar Domestic Long-Haul and International Fibre Connections
- Yangon-Naypyitaw-Mandalay (12 Cores, O/H) (780) km

- Yangon-Naypyitaw-Mandalay (Express Road) (839.8) km
Backbone Fiber Optic Cable (96 Cores, U/G)
Route - Mandalay-Ohndaw-Monywa (96 Cores, U/G) (155) km
- Mandalay-Ohndaw-Shwebo (96 Cores, U/G) (125.23) km
- ChaungU-Pakokku-Gwaycho (48 Cores, U/G) (229.05) km
- Meikhtila-Taunggyi (96 Cores, U/G) (193.2) km
- Bago-Kyaikhto-Thahton (96 Cores, U/G) (139.376) km
- Thahton-Hpa an-Myawaddy (48 Cores, U/G) (213.39) km
- Thahton-Mawlamyaing (48 Cores, U/G) (71.70) km
- Mawlamyaing-Dawei (48 Cores, U/G) (294.54) km
- Yangon-Pyay-Magway-Natmouk- (700) km
Pyawbwe-Naypyitaw (48 Cores, U/G)
Myitkyina
Moegaung
To India Moehnyinn
To China
Tamu
Indaw
Katha
Muse
Kawlin
Kutkai
Kalay
Kanbalu
Falam Lashio
Moekok
- Mandalay-Lashio-Muse (96 Cores, U/G) (461) km
Hakha Shwebo
Kan Kyaukme - Shwebo-Myitkyina (96 Cores, U/G) (538.24) km
- Gwaycho-Yenanchaung-Magway (96.32) km
Gangaw Myinmu (48 Cores, U/G)
Monywa
Pyinoolwin - Taunggyi-Kyaington-Tachileik (96 Cores, U/G) (650) km
Chaung U Mandalay
- Muse-Lashio-Mandalay-Naypyitaw- Yangon- (1500) km
Yezakyo Kyaukse Minepyin
Pakokku Kyaington Pathein-Ngwesaung (48 Cores, U/G)
Pauk Kunhein
Bagan
Kyauktaw Meikhtila Taunggyi Minephyat
Namsan
Gwaycho Kyaukpadaung Hopone
Tarchileik
Yenanchaung Pyawbwe
Minpya Natmauk
Sittwe Magwe
Ann To Thailand
Naypyitaw Loikaw
Taungoo
Pyay
Kyangin Zigon Penwegon
Ingapu
Htoogyi Thayawaddy
Hinthada Existing Backbone Fiber Optic Cable Routes
Bago
Kyonpyaw
To Thailand (3,741.286) km
Thahton
Ngwehsaungng
Pantanaw
Pathein Maupin
Yangon Myawaddy
Myaungmya Kungyangon Mawlamyaing Kawkareik Under taking Backbone Fiber Optic Cable
Dedaye
Labutta Pyapon Routes
(3,245.56) km
Backbone Fiber Optic Cable Routes (6,039)

Ye Km
(To carry out within 2014-2015 Budget Year)
Backbone Fiber Optic Cable Routes (4,232)
Km
Dawei
SEA - ME - (To carry out within 2015-2016 Budget Year)
WE 3 South East Asia - Middle East - West

South East Asia - Middle East - West
SEA - ME -
WE 5
According to Deputy Chief Engineer, MPT, Win Aung, interviewed in January 2015, MPT had at that time
34.5 Gbit/s of available capacity on these terrestrial cross-border routes and no possibility to increase
this amount without investment in upgrades. According to U Win and representatives of KDDI, the plan
is to increase this terrestrial connectivity to 100 Gbit/s by the end of 2015. However, on 4th June 2015,
Total Telecom quoted the country's Deputy Minister of Communications, U Thaung Tin, as saying that
"Myanmar has around 30 Gbit/s of international bandwidth provided by the incumbent, rising to around
40 Gbit/s including the infrastructure being built by Telenor and Ooredoo. This will increase to 120
Gbit/s over the next two to three years. "We need to have 200 Gbit/s bandwidth," Tin said."
2.2.1 Myawaddy-Mae Sai
U Win told Campana in January 2015 that, at the Myawaddy-Mae Sai interconnection, Telekom Malaysia
has 3 x STM-16 (7.5 Gbit/s); CAT Telecom has 10.6 Gbit/s (1 x 10Gbit/s + 1 STM-4); and Hutchison (HGC)
has 2.5 Gbit/s. HGC told Campana in November 2014 that they are also providing Ooredoo with a 5-year
2.5 Gbit/s lease via Thai operators, JasTel and Symphony at their respective POPs in Hadyai.
Redlink, MPT's ISP, is planning to obtain its own international connectivity instead of relying on MPT and
claims to already have a terrestrial link to CAT at Myawaddy via fibre leased from MFOCN. Redlink told
Campana in January 2015 that current demand for international connectivity was 1.5 Gbit/s and is
planned to increase to 20 Gbit/s in 3 years.
Telenor has upset MPT by installing a cable station at Mae Sai, served by Dtac on the Thai side of the
border, and then interconnecting across the border to Myawaddy without informing MPT. MPT has
requested information on the link. They believe it is a breach of the Telenor licence but Telenor insists
that its licence allows this and the link is working. Telenor is also believed to be working towards having
a similar connection between Mae Sot and Tachileik and has a Q315 target for "extensive national
backbone and international connections" (Meeting with Telenor January 7th 2015).
Both Ooredoo and Telenor have suggested to Campana that there are areas for potential collaboration
in Campana using their respective licences and existing fibre infrastructure for backhaul and for a back-
up terrestrial connection via Thailand.
While Telenor is clearly focused on developing the mobile opportunity in Myanmar, Ooredoo claims to
be in the business of wholesaling capacity to other Myanmar operators. They also claim that Head Office
in Doha has told them that they can have the money for their own cable landing station. This would
likely prove to be a distraction from achieving their licence target of providing 80% mobile network
coverage within five years.
2.2.2 Tachileik-Mae Sot
At the Tachileik-Mae Sot crossing, CAT Telecom has 15 Gbit/s. This amounts to a total of 42 Gbit/s of
matching capacity available via Thailand terrestrial connections. CAT is known to have bid for an MPT

tender to supply up to 200 Gbit/s over the next three years and ex
expects
pects to have lit 100 Gbit/s by the end
of 2015.
Since Mae Sot and Mae Sai

ai are promoted by the Thai government as special economic zones
zone for cross
border trade with Myanmar, significant growth is expected on this route.
2.2.3 Muse-Ruili
China Telecom has 2 x 5 Gbit/s available at the Muse

Muse-Ruili cross-border interconnection
connection. Telecom
Indonesia (aka PT Telkom or Telin) won a tender to build a terrestrial connection from Muse through
Myanmar to India by interconnecting with the submarine cable SEA SEA-ME-WE-4.
4. However, MPT ultimately
did not sign up to the SEA-ME-WE-4 4 consortium and the cable did not land in Myanmar. This outcome
forced Telecom Indonesia to send traffic from Jakarta via HK and mainland China to Muse with the
connection terminating in Nay Pyi Taw
Taw. MPT's usese of this route shows up clearly on the IP Transit traffic
analysis provided by Dyn:
st
Figure 11: MPT IP Transit Correspondents 1 Half 2015
As mentioned elsewhere, the China Unicom capacity on the terrestrial cable built from this
th location
through Myanmar to interconnect with the AAE
AAE-11 submarine cable at Pathein is not counted here
because China Unicom does not have drop
drop-off rights in Myanmar.
CONFIDENT
Further explanation of the methodology behind Figure 11 and what it represents is provided below in
section 2.3.
2.2.4 Tamu-Moreh
The Indian connection at Tamu-Moreh is provided by Tata. It consists of 4 x E1 (0.008 Gbit/s) and is not
used due to security concerns over sending maintenance crews into an area occupied by Indian
insurgents.
2.2.5 Tachileik-Laos
There is also a minor route into Laos via Tachileik where Viettel has 2 x E1 (0.004 Gbit/s).
2.3 Satellite
Around Yangon, MPT operates a Standard A satellite earth station at Thanlyin (close to the location of
MYTHIC's CLS) and a Standard B dish at Toegyaungalay. Presumably, MPT operates other earth stations
around the country but satellite links are not considered to be serious competition for MYTHIC.
2.4 Fault History
Although Myanmar is served by three major terrestrial fibre cross-border interconnection points as
shown above in Figure 4, there is still room for more international submarine connectivity because all of
these terrestrial connections are vulnerable to incidents of accidental and deliberate damage an order
of magnitude greater than even SEA-ME-WE-3. Figure 12 below shows Dyn's assessment of the
instability of current international connections to and from Myanmar:

Figure 12:: Outages & Instabilities in Myanmar April

April-July 2015
2.4.1 Dyn Transit Traffic Data for Myanmar
For every country in the world, Dyn has a running count of the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) routes
that define the Internet in that country. The lower chart in Figure 13 above shows that, presently,
p there
are around 65 routes that make up the Internet of Myanmar. For comparison, there are over 120,000
120
routes
es that make up the Internet of the United States.
Dyn tracks when each route is withdrawn from the global routing table, suggesting it is experiencing an
outage, and when each route is unstable. A route is considered unstable when a flurry of BGP messages
message
about that route occurs.. A quick burst of BGP messages suggests that that network
network'ss connection to the
outside world has changed. Itt typically means that a primary upstream provider has disappeared and the
routes are shifting over to an alternative provid
provider.
During the period of instability, there may be some impairment of connectivity, but it isn't guaranteed.
Given
iven the size of Myanmar's Internet
Internet, Myanmar has many large instability events which are depicted in
the upper graph of Figure 12 above
above. Doug Madory of Dyn says, "Itt is uncommon to see most of a country
go unstable as often as Myanmar does. Perhaps no country on Earth has as many instability events that
involve nearly the entire Internet of the country.
country."
In Figure 11 above, Dyn looks at transit for MPT

MPT, again based on BGP routing. This chart represents daily
summariess based on a scoring system which takes into account the size and routing pattern of each
route transited by each carrier and can be interpreted as the relative traffic volumes into MPT by various
international carriers.
CONFIDENT
Figure 13 below provides evidence of the almost daily challenge that operators in Myanmar face to
maintain service for their customers.
Figure 13:: Typical Weekly IP Transit Traffic Patterns in Myanmar
The three charts in Figure 13 above are also based on BGP routing data. The y-axis represents Dyn's
400+ peers (carriers that provide Dyn with live BGP feeds of data). Each chart represents one
on of the
three main Myanmar operators.. Each colour represents one of the international carriers
carrier serving
Myanmar.
When a colourr is vertically fatter than the others

others, then one can conclude that more of the ISPs of the
Internet are using that international carrier to reach the designated Myanmar operator.
operator Conversely, we
can see that MPT uses Telekom Indonesia for transit, but very few ISPs around the world use Telekom
Indonesia to reach MPT.
According to Dyn, abrupt shifts in Figure 13 above have coincided with fiber cuts and power failures as
certain paths become unusable and traftraffic is shifted to the remaining connections.
2.4.2 Traffic Data Analysis
Based on the Dyn data, Campana has made the following analysis of Outage Frequency, Outage
Duration, and Total Downtime for each of the three licensed national operators in Myanmar.
CONFIDENT
12.0
11.3
10.0
8.0
Days
6.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.9
0.0
MPT Ooredoo Telenor
Figure 14: Average Period between Outages by Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015
Figure 14 above shows the average number of days between outages at each of the three licensed
national operators and highlights a stark contrast between MPT, which is dealing with an outage every
day, Ooredoo once a week, and Telenor every 11 days.
Figure 15 below shows the average duration of an outage at each licensed national operator. Not only
does MPT suffer many more outages than the other operators but the time taken to restore service on a
route is also greater. Ooredoo also takes much longer to repair a fault than Telenor.
7 7.5
6.9
6
5
Hours
1 1.7
0
MPT Ooredoo Telenor
Figure 15: Average Outage Duration by Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015

Figure 16 below shows how much downtime at each of the licensed national operators in Myanmar can
be associated with a particular international carrier and therefore a particular route, acknowledging that
some international carriers are probably using the same route.
600
500
DTAC
400 SingTel
Telekom Malaysia
Hours
300
Telekom Indonesia
NTT
200
Hutchison
100 China Telecom
0
MPT Ooredoo Telenor
Figure 16: Total Downtime by Carrier & Myanmar Operator March 11-July 22 2015
Figure 16 above shows that Hutchison suffered 288 hours of carrier downtime in serving MPT and
Ooredoo over the period March 11th to July 22nd 2015. NTT incurred 250 hours of downtime in serving
MPT alone. It is worth noting that Hutchison and NTT are the two international carriers with whom
Campana has been able to make the most progress in discussions about MYTHIC capacity purchases.
3. Pricing
MPT's IPLC pricing in January 2015 reflects its monopoly position and was as follows:
64 kbit/s 128 kbit/s 192 kbit/s 256 kbit/s 384 kbit/s 512 kbit/s 1 Mbit/s 2 Mbit/s 10 Mbit/s 45 Mbit/s 155 Mbit/s
US$2,000 US$2,500 US$3,500 US$4,000 US$5,000 US$6,000 US$8,000 US$9,000 US$30,000 US$70,000 US$150,000
Source: MPT
Note that, even at these prices, MPT has sold out of all available capacity.
As a result of the lack of availability of international capacity to and from Myanmar, wholesale
bandwidth prices offered by, until recently, the monopoly supplier, MPT, are 2,700 to 12,900 times
higher than the benchmark transatlantic prices for the same capacity and 180 to 600 times higher than
similar routes connecting emerging Asian markets to an IP transit hub. Figure 17 below shows a
summary of bandwidth pricing research conducted by Campana in the second half of 2014.

Monthly Recurring
Charge
Times
Location A Location B Service Mbit/s Protected? Source
Transatlantic
US$/Mbit/s per mth
London New York 10G 10000 Unprotected $0.35 1 AP Telecom

Yangon Singapore E-1 2 Unprotected $4,500 12,857 SEA-ME-WE-3
Taipei Singapore 50 All segments $211 602 eCX
Danang Hong Kong 100 All segments $188 537 eCX
Yangon Singapore STM-1 156 Unprotected $962 2,747 SEA-ME-WE-3
Danang Singapore STM-1 156 All segments $146 419 eCX
Danang Hong Kong STM-1 156 All segments $133 381 eCX
Bangkok Singapore STM-4 622 Singapore only $63 181 eCX
Tokyo Singapore STM-4 622 Singapore only $19 53 eCX
Manila Singapore GigE 1000 Singapore only $43 123 eCX
Cyberjaya Singapore GigE 1000 All segments $40 113 eCX
Kuala Lumpur Singapore GigE 1000 All segments $31 88 eCX
Yangon Singapore STM-16 2500 Unprotected $18 51 SEA-ME-WE-3
Tokyo Singapore 10G 10000 Unprotected $2 7 Vodafone
Hong Kong Singapore 10G 10000 Unprotected $2 5 Vodafone
Figure 17: Myanmar 1-Year Lease Bandwidth Pricing Research 2H 2014
Figure 17 above shows very clearly the inordinate disparity in pricing of international connectivity to and
from Myanmar, even compared with similar emerging markets in Indo-China, such as Vietnam.
According to AP Telecom in September 2014, a 2.5 Gbit/s lease from Bangkok to the Myanmar border
was priced at US$67,000 per month (US$27 per Mbit/s per month) while MPT was offering a STM-1
lease from Yangon to the Myanmar border at US$140,000 per month (US$900 per Mbit/s per month).
4. Conclusion
At first glance, a virgin market of approximately 60 million people served by four submarine fibre optic
cables and three major terrestrial fibre routes may appear to be over-supplied but closer analysis shows
that the MYTHIC cable has sustainable competitive advantages which will allow it to establish a viable
market share.
SEA-ME-WE-3 is old, unreliable, and unlikely to be upgraded by MPT beyond the wholly inadequate
capacity that it provides to Myanmar today. AAE-1 is designed to serve China's requirement for
redundant routes to the rest of the World and will not impact the Myanmar market to any significant
extent.
This leaves MYTHIC to compete with SEA-ME-WE-5 and the terrestrial networks all of which suffer from
a significantly greater statistical vulnerability to accidental or deliberate damage (see "You've Been Cut,
So What?" by Ciena).

Moreover, while MYTHIC will be "open access" and managed by a customer-focused, flexible, and profit-
oriented private entity in Campana Group, the other connections will be managed either by an
incumbent which is burdened with legacy systems, a high cost base, and a myriad of other
transformative challenges, not to mention an investment focus on a different part of the business, or by
mobile operators that are more interested in ensuring the availability of affordable international
bandwidth for their own business and unlikely to focus on 3rd Party sales. Indeed, Campana's quality of
service and non-discriminatory approach to the market should result in sales to all licensed operators in
Myanmar, including MPT, Ooredoo, and Telenor.

5. Appendix I - Submarine Cable Database

Total
Max Original Capacity Current
System Route No. Capacity
RFS DLS Max DLS No. λ Design Lit at Lit
or Cable Name Owners Status Length Fiber after OADM Repeaters
Year Length location λ's (Gbit/s) Capacity RFS Capacity
Segment (km) Pairs Upgrades
(km) (Gbit/s) (Gbit/s) (Gbit/s)
(Gbit/s)
S4: Mumbai -
System SEA-ME-WE-3 Consortium In service 2000 39,000 5,250 2 8 10 20 400 20 560 ? Yes
Singapore
SEA-ME-WE-3 S04
(Tuas, Singapore-
Medan, Indonesia-
Penang, Malaysia-
Satun, Thailand-
Segment Consortium In service 1999 5,250 n/a n/a 2 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Pyapon, Myanmar-
Mount Lavinia, Sri
Lanka-Cochin,
India-Mumbai,
India)
Singapore -
Djibouti. If there
AAE-1 (Asia-Africa-
System Consortium Planned 2016 25,000 7,400 is a full landing 5 80 100 40,000 40,000 ? 0 Yes Yes
Europe)
in Mumbai, this
will be shorter.
AAE-1 (BU8-Ngwe
Segment Consortium Planned 2016 425 n/a n/a ? 80 100 ? ? ? 0 Yes ?
Saung, Myanmar)
Yanbu, Saudi
System SEA-ME-WE-5 Consortium Planned 2016 20,000 6,200 Arabia - Matara, 3 80 100 24,000 24,000 ? 0 ? Yes
Sri Lanka
SEA-ME-WE-5 S22
Segment (BU10-Ngwe Saung, Consortium Planned 2016 420 n/a n/a ? 80 ? ? ? ? 0 ? ?
Myanmar)
Campana
System MYTHIC Planned 2016 1,603 1,546 Thanlyin-Penang 2 100 100 20,000 20,000 300 0 No Yes
Group
MYTHIC (S01 Campana

Segment Planned 2016 1,546 n/a n/a 2 100 100 20,000 20,000 300 0 No Yes
Thanlyin-Penang) Group
System MIC Vodafone Proposed TBA 1,942 TBA TBA TBA 100 100 TBA TBA TBA 0 TBA Yes
Segment MIC Vodafone Proposed TBA n/a n/a TBA 100 100 TBA TBA TBA 0 TBA TBA
Figure 18: Database of Submarine Cables Serving or Planned to Serve Myanmar

6. Appendix II - Outage Data
Av. Period
Total Av. Outage
Number of between
Customer Carrier Downtime Duration
Outages Outages
(hours) (hours)
(days)
China Telecom 10 23 2 9.6
Hutchison 16 150 9 6.1
NTT 27 250 9 4.4
Telecom Italia 1 1 1 <1
MPT
Telekom Indonesia 7 46 7 13.2
Telekom Malaysia 3 7 2 21.0
Starhub 0 0 n/a n/a
TOTAL 64 477 7 0.9
Hutchison 18 138 8 5.1
Ooredoo SingTel 3 7 2 26.0
TOTAL 21 145 7 6.0
China Telecom 7 11 2 18.8
DTAC 3 6 2 28.0
Telenor MPT 0 0 n/a n/a
Telenor Global Svcs 0 0 n/a n/a
TOTAL 10 17 2 11.3
Figure 19: Service Outage History March 11-July 22 2015
Note: The data in the above table are based on visual measurement of data series in the Dyn charts
and are therefore subject to an error factor of +/-2 hours per outage per data point. This analysis
should therefore not be shared with any 3rd parties.

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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL BOARD PAPER

COMPETITION IN THE MARKET FOR

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

1.2 Other Potential Competitors

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

1.3 Network Reliability

1.4.1 Current Situation

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

1.4.2 Three-Year Outlook

1.5 MYTHIC Competitive Advantages

MYTHIC's competitive advantages are:

• NFS(I) licence with "submarine" is unique

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Figure 3: Summary of Myanmar's International Submarine Fibre Routes

To Route Status Cores Owner Correspondents

Figure 4: Summary of Myanmar's Terrestrial Fibre Cross-Border Routes

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Route Total Capacity Current Lit

System SEA-ME-WE-3 In service 2000 39,000 560 560

SEA-ME-WE-3 S04 (Tuas,

Figure 5: SEA-ME-WE-3 Cable Map & Parameters

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Route Total Capacity Current Lit

System AAE-1 (Asia-Africa-Europe) Consortium inc. Planned 2016 25,000 40,000 0

Figure 6: AAE-1 Cable Map & Parameters

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Route Total Capacity Current Lit

System SEA-ME-WE-5 Planned 2016 20,000 24,000 0

Figure 7: SEA-ME-WE-5 Cable Map & Parameters

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Route Total Capacity Current Lit

System MYTHIC Planned 2016 1,603 20,000 0

Figure 8: MYTHIC Cable Map & Parameters

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Route Total Capacity Current Lit

System MIC Proposed TBA 1,942 TBA 0

Figure 9: MIC Cable Map & Parameters

Figure 10: Myanmar Domestic Long-Haul and International Fibre Connections

- Yangon-Naypyitaw-Mandalay (12 Cores, O/H) (780) km

Kyangin Zigon Penwegon

Backbone Fiber Optic Cable Routes (6,039)

WE 3 South East Asia - Middle East - West

2.2.1 Myawaddy-Mae Sai

2.2.2 Tachileik-Mae Sot

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Since Mae Sot and Mae Sai

China Telecom has 2 x 5 Gbit/s available at the Muse

2.4 Fault History

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

Figure 12:: Outages & Instabilities in Myanmar April

2.4.1 Dyn Transit Traffic Data for Myanmar

In Figure 11 above, Dyn looks at transit for MPT

Figure 13:: Typical Weekly IP Transit Traffic Patterns in Myanmar

When a colourr is vertically fatter than the others

2.4.2 Traffic Data Analysis

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

CONFIDENTIAL © Campana Group Pte Ltd.

London New York 10G 10000 Unprotected $0.35 1 AP Telecom