appears to have become the preferred skalyanaraman-

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method of governing in the world’s 240518)
strongest power.
Raksha Mantri to
The void thus created in world affairs is Pursue India’s
rapidly being sought to be filled by China, Defence
a growing global power. Projections Cooperation
indicate that China would overtake the US Agenda in SCO
as the world’s largest economy by 2030. In
(/idsacomments/raks
mantri-to-pursue-
the wake of such a development, China is
india-defence-
expected to thrust its own version of the
cooperation-
‘rule of law’ and international boundaries agenda-in-sco-
especially with relation to its territorial pstobdan-160418)
disputes in South China Sea (SCS) and
along its land borders. Oli’s India visit:
Resetting bilateral
Russia, under Putin, is seeking to achieve relations for
its old glory, despite evident limitations. A mutual benefit
gradual US withdrawal from its global role (/idsacomments/oli-
is propelling Russia to occupy the vacated india-visit-
space, in competition with China. Russia is resetting-bilateral-
willing and prepared to exploit the fault
relations-for-
mutual-benefit-
lines in the western alliance to achieve this
nrnayak-110418)
objective. Additionally, Russia would not
hesitate to ally with China if that enables it
to enhance its standing at the global level.
The manner in which Russia has carved out
a role for itself in the Middle East and is
busy exploiting anti-US sentiment in Latin
America are clearly indicative of its global
role aspirations.
Share
A common feature of all these powers is
that they are economically and militarily
Tweet
strong. The US is a shining example. While
Russia may have limitations on the
Email economic side, it makes up for this
shortfall by virtue of possessing a powerful
Linkedin military. China, for its part, has an equally
strong economy as well as military.

Print (?q=print/) In sharp contrast, countries like Germany

and Japan are not looked upon as global
powers despite their economic strength,
because of their dependence on NATO and
the US, respectively, for their security.
Likewise, the erstwhile USSR could not
survive an economic meltdown and
disintegration despite being militarily
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strong. It is only when economic might and
military prowess grow side by side that a
country makes a mark in the global
pecking order.

It may be worthwhile looking at India from

such a perspective before determining how
successful it has been in achieving
recognition as a global or even a regional
player. Considering the turmoil that the
world has gone through in the last two
decades, India has done reasonably well
economically. Though nowhere near China,
an annual average growth rate of about
seven per cent has ensured steady
economic growth. But poor infrastructure,
unemployment, rampant corruption and
poor work culture have prevented us from
achieving better results. Nevertheless, we
still have been recognized as a country
with massive potential for future growth.
By 2030, we are projected to have the third
largest GDP globally.

However, that would not necessarily make

us the third most powerful nation in the
world. The reason is the lack of matching
military capabilities. Like Germany and
Japan (as mentioned earlier), economic
power alone would not allow India to
achieve global power status. In fact,
without military prowess, we would not
even be recognized as a regional power. No
wonder then that the Indian Ocean, which
was earlier an Indian preserve, is now seen
as an arena that is open to domination by
China, US, and the others. In fact, with
bases at Coco Isles, Hambantota, Gwadar,
Djibouti and Seychelles, the Chinese have
literally established a string of pearls
around India.

At the regional level, the pre-eminence

enjoyed by India because of its size and
population over its much smaller
neighbours is slowly disappearing.
Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal and
Maldives have gradually come under
 Search ()
increasing Chinese economic, and in some
cases military, influence. Bangladesh and
Bhutan are being subjected to
enticements/pressure to enable greater
Chinese inroads at the expense of India.
While the West may try to prop up India by
renaming the erstwhile Asia Pacific region
as Indo Pacific region, without a matching
military capability from the Indian side,
such efforts are unlikely to change the
ground realities substantially.

The recent NATO summit has clearly

highlighted the vulnerability of European
nations from a security perspective in case
the US goes ahead with threats of reducing
its involvement in NATO. Trump’s warning
to European leaders that even a defence
expenditure of two per cent of GDP may
not be enough to stop a US scale down in
NATO and a subtle push for defence
expenditure totalling four per cent of GDP
post 2024, are indications of the kind of
funding required for security and stability.
At $636 billion annually, the US is spending
3.6 per cent of its GDP on defence.

In India, as a percentage of GDP, the

defence budget has gradually shrunk
during the last 10 years. From over two per
cent in 2008-09, it is down to 1.57 per cent
during the current year. This has resulted
in increasing hollowness and the stopping
of the modernization of the services. No
wonder, one hears news of a MiG 21
crashing every few days, in the process at
times snuffing out precious lives of trained
pilots!

We cannot be deriving satisfaction from

the success of ‘surgical strikes’ or stopping
the Chinese juggernaut at Doklam. Those
were mere tactical landmarks. Our
requirement is to be prepared to defend
ourselves against a two front threat.
Increasing collusion between China and
Pakistan in all aspects of functioning is a
matter of deep concern for national
 Search ()
security experts. None would want India to
be exposed to a debacle like 1962.
However, to avoid it, we need to develop
capabilities to defend ourselves
appropriately. It would also be prudent to
understand that while diplomacy can play
a crucial role in tackling critical situations,
it may not be successful always. Not having
a fall back option in case of failure of
diplomatic efforts would be suicidal.

A series of cost cutting studies has been

undertaken from time to time to save
precious resources for modernization of
the military within the available budget. A
number of recommendations emerging
from these studies have also been
implemented, some with greater success
than others. Such efforts at improving the
teeth-to-tail ratio are an integral part of the
functioning of a good organization.
However, beyond a certain point, these
efforts become counterproductive as
greater time and energy are therea er
spent in ‘discovering’ them. The military
has reached such a point.

The ‘Make in India’ route for improving

defence capabilities, which the present
dispensation is now trying to follow,
should have been implemented
immediately a er independence to achieve
the desired results by this time. It is good
that it has been initiated now at least.
However, it would require another 10 to 15
years to fructify. Of course, during this
intervening period, the world would have
moved further ahead.

We need to recognize that cosmetic

changes to marginally improve the
methodology of defence spending to
achieve a greater bang from the available
buck are no longer going to achieve the
desired effect. India’s quest for being
recognized even as a regional power, let
 alone a global power, requires a balanced
 Search ()
and simultaneous growth of its economic
and military capabilities.

In a growing economy, there would always

be competing requirements for scarce
resources. While growth and development
must get priority, a delicate balance has to
be ensured by factoring in the requirement
of national security. The fact that the
expenditure on defence is non-productive
does not diminish the importance of
security. We need to appreciate that we are
perpetually exposed to a two front threat.
Hostile neighbours can seriously disrupt
growth and development if national
security is not guaranteed. It is also
important to understand that an
occasional large allocation of resources to
overcome crises is not an answer to
security concerns. Allocation of suitable
resources on an ongoing basis year a er
year is the only solution for an adequately
prepared military to defend the nation.
Professional expertise puts such an
allocation at three per cent of the GDP. The
sooner we factor it in our budgets, the
better off we would be in being recognized
as an emerging regional/global power.

Views expressed are of the author and do

not necessarily reflect the views of the
IDSA or of the Government of India.

Keywords:  India (/taxonomy/term/94)

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