Recent Seismic Hazard Studies in SE Asia,

Pacific & USA

Mark Stirling, Nick Horspool , Matt Gerstenberger

& Phuong H. Nguyen
GNS Science
 Introduction

• International seismic hazard technology transfer

projects conducted over the period 2013-14

• International technology transfer is a rapidly increasing

component of work at GNS Science

• Examples from Vietnam, Fiji, & California USA

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 Vietnam: preliminary seismic hazard map
• MFAT-funded development project with partners
Damwatch Engineering, Water Resources University,
and Institute of Geophysics

• Many countries still base hazard on historical seismicity

data (like NZ until the late 1990s)

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 Vietnam: Preliminary seismic hazard map
• Inclusion of modelled active faults increases seismic
hazard by a factor of 2

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Fiji Z-Factor

Fiji Seismicity:
M>5.5 1960-
2009

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 Fiji Z-Factor

Seismicity rates M>5; 0.1*0.1deg 0-50km

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 Fiji Z-Factor

NZS 1170.5 Z-factor Map

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 Fiji Z-Factor

Suva Spectra vs Code Spectra

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Diablo Canyon NPP: Ground truthing seismic
hazard estimates

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Diablo Canyon: Coastal central California

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Shoreline Report Hazard Curves

0.5g has a return period

of ~1100 years

1g has a return period

of ~20,000 years

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 Examples of FGFs and Semi FGFs

Unstable, ancient rock outcrops or balanced rocks that would be

shaken down if strong earthquake shaking occurred

Jim Brune pioneered the use of precariously-balanced rocks to

constrain seismic hazard estimates
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 Double Rock Site
Paleo seastacks on 80-
120ka marine benches

Franciscan chert

Semi FGFs formed along

steeply dipping chert layers

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 Double Rock East
Rough field estimate
of quasi-static toppling
acceleration

Tan25deg~0.5g

Semi FGF

25 o
Similar answer from
equally rough Newmark
analysis
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NSHMP Hazard Curve: Double Rock Site

0.5g has a return period

of ~1-2000 years

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Hazard Curve: Use FGFs to inform choice of
hazard level
0.01

Annual
Frequency of
Mean
exceedance
0.001 5th 16th 50th 84th 95th
(g) M5

0.0001
0.01 0.1 1.0 10
PGA (g)

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 Diablo Canyon

• Dating and assessment of FGF fragilities in progress

• FGFs only need to be a few thousand years of age to

constrain seismic hazard estimates for Diablo Canyon
NPP

• Diablo Canyon and Clyde Dam: first application of FGFs

to major seismic hazard projects

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 Acknowledgements

• Graeme McVerry, GNS Science

• Andrew King, GNS Science
• Stuart Read, GNS Science
• Damwatch Engineering colleagues
• Norm Abrahamson, PG&E
• Steven Thompson, WLA
• Tom Hanks, USGS
• Richard Lester, MWH

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