SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018

Predicting Compressive Strength at a Specified Age Using Early Age Strength

and Temperature Measurements for concrete mixes with OPC
J. A. A. S. Jayasinghe1, A. I. G. K. Mataraarachchi2 and S. M. A. Nanayakkara3
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT: In designing of concrete structures, compressive strengths at specified ages of concrete

play a major role. For concretes with Ordinary Portland Cement, this is generally considered as 28-day
compressive strength since the strength gain thereafter is insignificant. However, in event of change of
materials, the ready-mixed concrete suppliers find it difficult to conduct trials for a new design and
verify 28-day compressive strength due to limited availability of time. Hence, developing a methodology
to estimate the expected mean compressive strength of concrete at a specified age using its early age
properties will be of great practical use. In this paper, a model has been developed to estimate the
compressive strength at specified ages of a given concrete mix with Ordinary Portland Cement, within a
maximum period of 3 days. Concrete compressive strength measurements at 3-day, and temperature
variation of a representative mortar specimen with time under known boundary conditions were used as
the model inputs. Based on the temperature measurements, heat of hydration curve for cements were
developed using a multi component finite element hydration model. The developed hydration model was
used to estimate the degree of hydration at the respective ages of compressive strength records and at
the specified age. The compressive strengths of the concrete mixes at the specified age were estimated
with the use of estimated degree of hydration and measured compressive strengths. The proposed
methodology was found to be satisfactory for the tested concrete mixes.

KEYWORDS: Concrete Compressive Strength, Prediction Model, Early age measurements,

Temperature variation.

1 INTRODUCTION with OPC was considered.

a. Research Significance b. Literature Review

Knowledge of compressive strength Some previous researchers have tried to address

development of concrete is critical in designing
of concrete structures due to variety of
requirements. The strength at different ages of a
particular concrete mix may be required for the
decision making at critical stages if the
construction such as for the removal of
formwork, for the verification of the strength
requirement to proceed the construction, for the
prestressing of a concrete member etc., the
understanding about the development of
compressive strength is required. Also, in the
event of change of materials, the ready-mixed
concrete suppliers find it difficult to conduct
trials for a new design and verify 28-day
compressive strength due to limited availability
of time. Thus, this research is focused on
developing a model which can predict the
compressive strength development of a concrete
mix using early age strength data and heat of
hydration of cement. In this study the concrete
the issue in various means. Elaty, (2018) has
expressed the compressive strength
development as a logarithmic curve. By
considering two points at the curve he claims to
develop the strength development curve. He
also claims higher accuracy with predefined
parameters which can be calculated with
statistical expressions based on previous
compressive strength data. Kabir et al. (2012)
have established an empirical relationship
between 7-day compressive strength data and
28-day compressive strength data and claims
higher accuracy in his prediction model. Kheder
et al. (2003) has conducted a multivariable
regression analysis combining compressive
strength of heat cured mortar cubes, ultrasonic
pulse velocity of the cubes, density of the cubes
and chemical composition of cement to predict
the compressive strength of cements.
Neelakanthan et al. (2013) have related 28-day

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SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018
compressive strength to the compressive
strength of heat cured samples in a statistical
approach.
Some researchers have tried the maturity
concept to predict the compressive strength.
Maturity concept relates the combined effect of
temperature and the time to strength
development of concrete. Carino & Lew.
(2001) have presented the relationship between
the compressive strength and the maturity
which have been calculated using temperature
monitoring. Benaicha et al. (2016) have also
presented a model to predict early age strength
through maturity concept. Chengju, (1989)
claims that there are several acceptable
approaches for calculation of maturity.
According to them, the maturity concept is
useful in determining the early age strength
provided that already established reference
curves are available for the particular concrete,
which can be seen as a disadvantage.
There are methods which have been developed
on theoretical approaches as well. Cervera et al.
(2002) presents a comprehensive analytical
model which uses concepts of maturity and
normalized chemical affinity. They have related
the compressive strength directly proportional
to the degree of hydration. But this method
requires extensive experimentations to
determine the model coefficients. Chidiac et al.
(2013) have developed a model to predict
28-day compressive strength of concrete
consists with sub models to calculate degree of
cement hydration, average paste thickness,
cement paste strength and 28-day bond
strength. It requires a dataset for calibration.
Heat or temperature measurements have been
considered as a basis of the models for some
researchers. Baran & Pichniarczyk, (2017) have
measured the total heat release for different
cements at different ages and compared with
the respective compressive strengths of
different cements and observed a linear
relationship. Bentz et al, (2012) have
considered compressive strength of mortar with
measured cumulative heat release per volume
of initial water for different cements, mix
proportions and ages and observed a linear
relationship. Boumiz et al, (1996) have
measured the heat release of cement pastes and
mortars using isothermal calorimeter and the
calculated degrees of hydration have been
compared with compressive strength and found
to be having a linear relationship. Kszyaska,
(2002) has plotted the measured adiabatic heat
release with compressive strength of concretes
and has observed an exponential relationship.
Loan et al, (2007) have estimated the heat
2
release up to the peak of the temperature history
with the 28-day compressive strengths and
obtained a linear relationship. Schutter &
Taerive, (1996) have calculated the degree of
hydration using a model which considers
isothermal calorimeter readings. They have
considered the ratios of the properties at a
particular age to ultimate value for degree of
hydration and the compressive strength, and
observed a nonlinear relationship. Viviani et al,
(2008) have presented a concept named
“Equivalency points” which is supposed to
reflect degree of hydration. It requires
temperature and deformation monitoring for 72
hours and then uses maturity concept. With
calibration strength values within 72 hours age
the model could predict compressive strength
development.
c. Research Gap
Though the previous researchers claim higher
accuracy in predicting the strength
development, some methods require complex
and expensive experiments. Some other
methods are based purely on statistical analysis
which may lack the logical approach. Some
approaches require acceleration of the chemical
reaction of cement in their predictions. Thus,
this study focusses on the development of a
model to predict the compressive strength
development with early age measurements
through a logical approach. As the model
inputs, the 3-day compressive strength results
of the concrete, temperature variation of a
representative mortar due to heat of hydration
of cement, mix proportions of concrete and
chemical composition of the cement were
considered.
2 METHODOLOGY
Previous researchers have consistently
emphasized the relationship between the
development of compressive strength and the
degree of hydration. Also, the relationship
between the 28-day compressive strength and
the early age compressive strength has been
proven to be significant by the previous
researchers. Hence, a method which uses early
age compressive strength and degree of
hydration is considered in this study. The
degree of hydration is calculated considering
the variation of temperature of a representative
mortar due to heat of hydration of cement in a
known environmental conditions. Here the
mortar fraction of the concrete mix under
SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018

consideration was tested to obtain temperature Table 2. XRD analysis for cements
variation. The mortar fraction subjected to
thermal monitoring is modeled in a finite Cement Batch a b c
element programme and hydration model C3S (%) 62.53 54.72 57.97
developed by Kishi & Maekawa, (1995) is used
C2S (%) 10.15 10.26 13.39
to develop the degree of hydration curve for the
particular mix. Then the relationship between C3A (%) 5.03 3.56 5.92
the compressive strength and the degree of C4AF (%) 12.03 13.53 11.91
hydration has been established statistically. In Gypsum (%) 2.61 1.04 2.06
order to predict the compressive strength at a
specified age, the data obtained with respect to
compressive strength at particular age and respectively. Table 3 shows the concrete mix
corresponding degree of hydration were used. proportions used in the study.
The proposed methodology is used to predict
some other data set for validation. The concrete cubes of
150mm×150mm×150mm were cast from each
3 EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAMME mix and compressive strengths were measured.
Table 4 shows the recorded values for
In this research 10 concrete mixes were used. compressive strengths.
Ordinary Portland cement produced by INSEE
cement Ruhuna Plant, Manufactured sand and The variation of temperature of the
crushed granite were used as raw materials. representative mortar mixes were recorded
Hypercrete Plus M by Millennium Concrete using a semi adiabatic calorimeter. The mortar
Technologies (Pvt) Ltd which is a used for the monitoring is identical as the
Polycarboxylic based superplasticizer was used mortar fraction of the tested concretes. The
as the admixture. Even if the cements were cylindrical moulds with a diameter of 3 inches
from the same source, cements from three and a height of 6 inches, made of PVC were
different batches were used. Chemical used un the calorimeter. The moulds were
composition of cement samples were surrounded by Extruded Polystyrene and the
determined by X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) average thickness of the insulation was 10mm.
analysis and X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) In all the cases the mortar mass tested was
analysis and results are shown in Table 1 and 2 1300g. The recorded temperature histories are
depicted in Figure 1. Those records were used
to determine the variation of degree of
Table 1. XRF analysis for cements hydration with time for 10 concrete mixes given
in Table 3.
Cement Batch a b c 4 HYDRATION MODEL
SiO2 (%) 19.45 17.42 19.66
Al2O3 (%) 4.74 4.44 5.09 The prediction methodology presented in this
Fe2O3 (%) 2.92 2.93 3.02
research is based on the degree of hydration of
the concrete. Temperature variation of the
CaO (%) 61.65 59.92 61.6 mortar fraction of the concrete is used to
MgO (%) 1.53 1.62 1.4 develop the variation of degree of hydration
K2O (%) 0.56 0.54 0.47 through a hydration model. The hydration
Na2O (%) 0 0.11 0.14
model developed by Kishi & Maekawa, (1995)
is adopted in this research. In this model,
SO3 (%) 2.29 2.59 2.94 hydration process of cement is modeled by
LOI (%) 3.19 3.55 3.14 considering the hydration of individual mineral
Sum (%) 96.32 93.11 97.46 components separately. The equations 1-3 are
LSF (%) 96.79 103.75 94.32
the basic equations used in the hydration model.
(Mataraarachchi et al. 2012, Mataraarachchi et
T-ALK (%) 0.37 0.48 0.46 al. 2015)
LOI – Loss of Ignition
LSF – Lime Saturation Factor
T-ALK – Total Alkalinity

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SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018

Table 3. Concrete mix proportions used

Concrete No C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 CA CB
Used Cement label b b b b a c c c b c
Cement (kg/m3) 280 299 373 390 417 435 463 476 358 420
3
Water (kg/m ) 199 210 183 164 154 179 176 182 198 179
Fine Agg (kg/m3) 891 878 865 872 812 809 826 815 847 810
3
Coarse Agg (kg/m ) 1086 1069 1054 1063 1139 1075 1012 996 1035 1079
Admixture (ml/m3) 1121 1204 2988 3507 2522 4785 5536 5955 2515 4204
3
Density (kg/m ) 2456 2456 2474 2488 2522 2498 2479 2470 2437 2488
Slump (mm) 5 70 210 170 150 150 185 180 60 60

Table 4. Compressive strength of concretes at different ages (in N/mm2)

Concrete C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 CA CB
No
12.8 16.4 20.2 23.1 31.1 33.4 23.4 25.3
13.7 16.2 19.6 21.2 30.7 34.6 39.4 23.2 25.4
1 day 13.8 15.4 23.2
25.8 40.5 41.0 46.6 51.8
25.8 40.7 41.5 38.0 48.5 55.1
2 day
20.2 22.9 30.8 34.8 48.4 51.0 46.7 55.2 27.5 48.0
19.4 23.4 30.4 34.7 52.4 33.6 48.6
3 day 20.3 22.1 54.8 34.7
20.9 25.0 57.6 33.1
20.2 26.4 54.1 36.3
4 day 21.2 25.5 34.3
58.4
58.5
5 day 59.7
58.1
57.7
6 day 58.8
36.7 36.7 64.8 48.4 57.6 40.5
37.5 44.8 53.9 48.8
7 day 62.3
66.4
65.1
14 day 65.9
43.0 42.5 64.9 52.0 63.0 52.1
42.9 49.7 61.6 62.4 60.4 58.7
21 day 60.3
31.3 28.9 41.1 51.0 65.8 63.6 52.6 60.0 34.7 54.8
28.2 32.0 41.5 49.6 59.1 62.8 47.6 40.8 60.8
28 day 28.3 29.9 60.7 47.8

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SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018

Thus, a cuboidal with an equivalent cross

section is used in the finite element model.
Then the model was calibrated using a data set
corresponding to one concrete mix. The
calibration is mainly required to adjust the
delaying effect due to the admixtures.
Thereafter for other 9 concrete mixes the model
is used to develop the hydration model and
using the finite element model the temperature
variation is obtained and verified with the
experimental temperature variation (see Figure
2). The developed curves for the variation of
degree of hydration for the 10 concretes are
shown in Figure 3.

5. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL

The relationship between the degree of

hydration and the compressive strength is
intended to be developed statistically in this
research. The relationship is assumed to be in
the following manner.
Figure 1. Recorded temperature histories

Hc = ∑ pi Hi (1) (4)
Here;
Hi = γ βi λ µ si Hi,T0 (Qi)exp{-Ei/R[1/T -1/T0]} CS(t) – Compressive strength at t days
(2) CS(28) – Compressive strength at 28 days
DoH(t) – Degree of hydration at t days
Qi = ʃ Hidt (3) DoH(28) – Degree of hydration at 28 days
f() – A function
Where,
Hi,T0 : Reference hear generation of ith Thus, the available data of the concretes labeled
mineral component per unit weight C1 to C8 is plotted according to the above
at constant temperature T0 (i=1 to 4 relationship and the resulted plot is presented in
corresponding to C3S, C2S, C3A Figure 4.
and C4AF)
Pi : Weight composition ratio
Qi : Accumulated heat Model Experimental
R : Gas constant 40
Ei/R : Thermal activity
Temperature (0C)

T0 : Reference temperature 35
T : Temperature
30
The above hydration model is combined with a
25
finite element analysis programme, ANSYS for
the thermal analysis. The element type 20
SOLID70 which is a three dimensional 0.0 12.0 24.0 36.0 48.0 60.0 72.0
isoperimetric eight node solid element is used Time (h)
to model the geometry of the experimental
setup. Due to the cuboidal geometry of the Figure 2. Example of comparison of model vs
elements, it was difficult to model the experiment for temperature variation (For CB)
cylindrical shape of the mould of the specimen.

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SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018

0.9 70
0.8
y = 31.897ln(x) - 72.667

[CS(28)xDoH(t)]/DoH(28)
0.7 60
R² = 0.89
0.6
C1
0.5 50
DoH

C2
0.4
C3 40
0.3
0.2 C4
30
0.1 CA
0
20
0 7 14 21 28
Age (days)
10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0.9
CS(t) (N/mm2)
0.8
0.7
0.6 70
C5
0.5
DoH

C6 y = 11.371e0.0279x
0.4 60
R² = 0.89
C7
0.3
CS(t) (N/mm2) 50
0.2 C8

0.1 CB 40
0
0 7 14 21 28 30
Age (days)
20

Figure 3. Degree of hydration with time 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Considering the coefficient of determination [CS(28)*DoH(t)]/DoH(28)

(R2) of 0.89 it can be seen that the relationship
is sufficiently accurate to be used in a
prediction model. Thus, the developed
statistical relationship can be used to predict the
compressive strength at any age if some
compressive strength value at early age and the
thermal history are known.
6. VALIDATION OF THE MODEL
The developed equation is used to predict the
compressive strengths at specified ages using a
Figure 4. Plot of Equation (3) with
experimental data
known experimental strength values and the
developed degree of hydration curves for the
concretes labeled as A & B. The 3-day strength
values are used to predict the strength at later
stages. The inverse relationship given in second
graph of Figure 3 is used to predict the strength
before 28 days. The percentage error is
calculated compared with the measured

Table 5. Predicted compressive strengths vs experimental compressive strengths

Concrete Predicted Experimental Error

label Age DoH Strength Strength Error %
CA 3 day 0.7189 31.9
CA 28 day 0.8004 42.1 41.1 -1.0 -2.3
CB 3 day 0.7115 48.3
CB 21 day 0.7729 53.4 55.4 2.0 3.6
CB 28 day 0.7734 55.4 57.8 2.4 4.1
Mean 1.8 3.3
(all strength values are in N/mm2)

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SOCIETY OF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA - ANNUAL SESSIONS 2018
compressive strength values as given in Table
5.
The provision of average error is limited to 3.3
N/mm2 (1.8%) in the tested concretes indicating
the satisfactory accuracy of the model.
7 CONCLUSION
A methodology has been developed to estimate
the compressive strength development using
early age compressive strength measurements
and the temperature history of a representative
mortar sample of the concrete mix. The
statistical model was developed between the
ratios of degree of hydration at a particular age
over 28 days and the ratios of compressive
strength at the corresponding age over 28 days.
The model resulted in a coefficient of
determination of 0.89 implying the satisfactory
predictability. Strength results of two concrete
mixes were used to validate the model and the
predicted strengths were found to be
satisfactory. It is necessary to use more strength
data to check the accuracy of the methodology.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors wish to acknowledge the
financial support provided by INSEE Cement
for this project. Help from all the laboratory
technical staff members is also
acknowledged.
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