Hydroinformatics

Modelling and information systems

for integrated water management

“Programme with a difference”

Dr. Dimitri P. Solomatine

Professor of Hydroinformatics
1
 Water

Water is an important constituent of the meteorological

cycle
Pressure on water resources
Consequences of climate change
Need for conservation and sustainability of potable water
resources
Need for better information and predictions - to
understand and to manage water

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 2

 Managing water resources

water-related decisions is difficult to test on large-scale

experiments, hence importance of computer-based
modelling and forecasting
control of water resources must be based on optimal
solutions
management of water needs a lot of data and information
from various sources
need for Computer-based modelling,
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 3

 Hydroinformatics

modelling, information and communication technology,

computer sciences

applied to
problems of aquatic environment

with the purpose of

proper management

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 4

 ∂Q ∂ ⎛ Q 2 ⎞ ∂h
+ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + gA − gAS o + gAS f = 0
∂t ∂x ⎝ A ⎠ ∂x

Modelling

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 5

 Modelling

Computer-based model is
a simplified description of reality
an encapsulation of knowledge about a particular physical
or social process in electronic form

Hydroinformatics integrates
data,
models,
people

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 6

Generations of modelling: a bit of history…

1. Computers used as
calculation devices of analytical
expressions – 1950s
no friendly interfaces

2. Mainframe computers used to

solve differential equations
numerically – 1960-70s
custom-built models

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 7

 Generations of modelling

3. Production of modelling packages/systems for wide

class of problems – 1980-90s
developed user interfaces
“production lines” of models (modelling shells)
refinement of solution methods
promotion of standards
more clients more profits more enhancements

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 8

 Generations of modelling

4. “Mass” production of modelling systems for PCs – 1990s

provision of products, not projects
access by non-specialists
high standards of robustness and consistency
ease of use via the sophisticated user interfaces
involvement of software engineering and IT specialists
integration with supporting tools and facilities

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 9

Generations of modelling. The fifth generation
as we understand it now

5. Hydroinformatics systems – 1990s-

Modelling as a central interface between
domain data (monitoring stations, weather radars, remote
sensing)
and human decision maker
Domain knowledge encapsulators
Integration of various types of models
Alternative, non-process-based modelling paradigms
(data-driven modelling)
Potential of integration with artificial intelligence
5th generation modelling = CH AND AI
(but this has not happen yet)
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 10
 Hydroinformatics system:
typical architecture

User interface
Judgement engines
Decision support systems for management

Fact engines Data, information, Knowledge inference

knowledge engines
Physically-based
models Knowledge-base
systems
Data-driven
models Observations,
Communication

Real world

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 11

 Position of Hydroinformatics

Modelling
Instrumentation

ICT Water Engineering

Computing Hydrology
AI

Systems Environment
sciences,
Optimisation

Management
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 12
 Encapsulation of knowledge
related to water
Tacit (implicit) knowledge embedded within a person
Words, texts, images
printed
stored in electronic media
Mathematical models
formulas
algorithms
algorithms encapsulated in computer programs
(software)
Integrated systems encapsulating all of above –
Hydroinformatics systems

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 13

 Hydroinformatics system: flow of information
Data Models Knowledge Decisions

Earth observation, Numerical Weather Data modelling, Access to Decision

monitoring Prediction Models integration with modelling support
hydrologic and results
hydraulic models

Map of flood probability

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 14

 Hydroinformatics systems in flood
management

Data Models Knowledge Decisions

Map of flood probability

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 15

Models are indispensable in dealing with floods

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 16

Sobek modelling software (Delft Hydraulics) in
designing urban master plan

visulaizing potential floodings:

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 17

Hydroinformatics systems for flood warning:
MIKE FloodWatch

MIKE Flood Watch (Danish Hydraulic Institute), a decision

support system for real-time flood forecasting:
advanced time series data base
MIKE 11, for hydrodynamic modeling
MIKE 11 FF, real-time forecasting system,
ArcView, Geographical Information System (GIS)

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 18

Hydroinformatics systems for flood warning:
MIKE FloodWatch

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 19

Flood warning systems: Piemonte case study

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 20

Architecture of a hydroinformatics system for
flood warning in Athens, Greece (IHE project)
Hydrologic/
Hydraulic
Meteorological Models
Models

Connector to
Hydrologic/ Decision
Trigger
Hydraulic Tree
Model Module

GIS DSS
Module MAIN Database
INTERFACE Module

Internet, telephone lines

Post flood
Connector to Communication evaluation and
Telemetric Module documentation
data storage (Email, FTP) module
Telemetric
Data

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 21

 Flood warning system interface,
developed by Hydroinformatics participant

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 22

 Warragamba Dam, Australia

Warragamba Dam - 65 km west of

Sydney in the Burragorang Valley
provides the major water supply for
Sydney
Warragamba River flows through a
300-600 m wide gorge, about 100 m
deep before opening out into a large
valley. This allows a relatively short
and high dam to impound a vast
quantity of water.
A dam break of the Warragamba
Dam would be a major disaster.
SOBEK (Delft Hydraulics) software
was used for simulation
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 23
 Warragamba Dam, Australia
Simulation of the dam break with SOBEK, Delft
Hydraulics
The animation shows the simulation results. They may be
used for disaster management, evacuation planning, flood
damage assessment, urban planning

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 24

 Use of 2-dimensional modelling
in Jamuna bridge project, Bangladesh

construction of a 4 km bridge and several

river training works for guiding the flow to
pass under the bridge
Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) carried
out a study of the river morphology to
enable the contractor to take the
preventive or remedial measures
(MIKE 21 modelling system was used)

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 25

Eutrophication modelling of a tidal lagoon in
Bali, Indonesia

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 26

Example: Eutrophication modelling of a tidal
lagoon in Bali, Indonesia

Turtle Island is an enlargement of the existing Serangan

Island at the entrance to Benoa Bay; three artificial lagoons
are planned for leisure crafts and beaches
at the order of Penta Ocean Construction Co. LTD, DHI
performed modelling for water quality in terms of rooted
benthic vegetation, macroalgae, concentrations of
phytoplankton, nutrients and oxygen
MIKE 21 EU (eutrophication) model was used; various
scenarios were analysed.
The concentration field of Chlorophyll is shown; the area is
strongly influenced by tidal flushing and dries out during
each tidal cycle

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 27

 Example of Integrated Modelling:
a Case Study for Sonso Lake, Colombia

(Masters study of Mr. Carlos Velez performed together

with the experts from Delft Hydraulics)

Problem: 70% of the surface area of this shallow lake

is covered by an invasive macrophite Water Hyacinth
Causes:
Nutrients pollution from agricultural use of land
Lack of sustainable management of the lake
Methodology:
Integrated modelling of Water Hyacinth growth
(ecological – water flow model)
Results: the developed model makes it possible to
analyse alternatives to manage the Water Hyacinth
infestation D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 28
 Ecosystem Integrated Model:
a Case Study for Sonso Lake, Colombia
Developed by Carlos Velez. Supervisors: A. Mynett, L. Postma, A. v. Griensven

Solar
WATER SURFACE Radiation
2 3 5
6 16
Sobek Rural Sobek Rural 1 Water Volume 15
1D2D DELWAQ 5 13
Norg Porg
7 9 10 Water
Velocity 14
Hydro Water 4 NH4 Hyacinth
dynamic Water Depth 11
Quality PO4 12
Flow 6 NO3
8 9
Ecosystem SEDIMENT
Organic Matter Settled

PROCESSES
Water Hyacinth 1. Input / Output 5. Input / Output 9. Resuspension 13. Photosynthesis
Model (coded 2. Rainfall 6. Input / Output 10. Hydrolysis 14. Respiration
using SOBEK 3. Evapotranspiration 7. Sedimentation 11. Oxidation 15. Mortality
RURAL Open 4. Advection/Dispersion 8. Resuspension 12. Uptake/Growth 16. Losses
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 29
Process Library)
 Importance of modelling

reduces complexity
encapsulates knowledge
provides a laboratory experience
refines tacit knowledge
enables reasoned intervention by humans
facilitates communication
assists education and training

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 30

 Decision making process

Modelling

Archiving Decision
and analysis making

“Side effect”:
Knowledge
Acquisition Feedback
discovery
of and control
information

Application
Objectives and
Evaluation

World of water
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 31
Beyond physically-based models:

Computational intelligence
Optimisation and integration
Internet-based computing

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 32

Case study SIEVE: flood management problem

mountaneous
catchment in Southern
Europe
area of 822 sq. km

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 33

 SIEVE: visualization of data
FLOW1: effective rainfall and discharge data Discharge [m3/s]
Eff.rainfall [mm]
800 0
2
700
4
600
Effective rainfall [mm] 6
500
8
400 10
Discharge [m3/s]
12
300
14
200
16
100
18
0 20
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Time [hrs]

variables for building a decision tree model were selected on the basis of
cross-correlation analysis and average mutual information:
inputs: rainfalls REt, REt-1, REt-2, REt-3, flows Qt, Qt-1
outputs: flows Qt+1 or D.P.QSolomatine.
t+3 Introduction to Hydroinformatics 34
Process (physically-based) modelling of flow:
river modelling context
Qtup
Available data:
rainfalls Rt lateral inflows QL
catchment and river physical properties (soil,
geometry, roughnesses) Rt Qt
initial and boundary conditions for flows Q 0(x,t)
Inputs: QL(x,t), Qup(t), Q 0(x,t) , system
properties ∂Q ∂h
+b = 0
Output: flow Q (x, t) ∂x ∂t
∂Q ∂ ⎛ Q2 ⎞ ∂ QQ
Model: + ⎜⎜ β ⎟⎟ + gA (h + H ) +gA 2 =0
∂t ∂x ⎝ A ⎠ ∂x K
Q (x, t)=F (QL(x,t), Qup(t), Q 0(x,t) , system properties)
Questions:
are the physical properties of the catchment
known?
is F good enough ?
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 35
 Using data-driven methods in
rainfall-runoff modelling
Qtup
Available data:
rainfalls Rt
runoffs (flows) Qt
Rt
Inputs: lagged rainfalls Rt Rt-1 Rt-2 … Qt
Output to predict: Qt+T

Model: Qt+T = F (Rt Rt-1 … Qt Qt-1 …Qtup Qt-1up …)

(routing)

Questions:
how to find the appropriate lags? (lags embody the
physical properties of the catchment)
how to build non-linear regression function F ?

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 36

 Artificial neural network: a universal function
approximator

weights weights
x1 a ij b jk y1 ⎛ N hid ⎞
x2
u 1x
y2
yk = F ⎜⎜ bok +
⎝
∑ b jk u j ⎟⎟
⎠
i =1
x3 y3
k=1,..., N out

xn us ym
Inputs Hidden layer Outputs

f(x)
⎛ N inp ⎞ 1
uj = F ⎜⎜ aoj + ∑ aij xi ⎟⎟
⎝ i =1 ⎠
0 x
j=1,..., N hid
Binary Sigmoid : F(x) = 1/ (1 + e-x)

There are (Ninp+1)Nhid + (Nhid+1)Nout weights to be identified

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 37

Neural network tool in predicting flows

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 38

 SIEVE: Predicting Q(t+3) three hours ahead

Prediction of Qt+3 : Verification performance

ANN verification
350
RMSE=11.353
NRMSE=0.234 300 Observed
Modelled (ANN)
COE=0.9452 250 Modelled (MT)
Q [ m 3 /s ]

200
MT verification
RMSE=12.548 150
NRMSE=0.258 100
COE=0.9331
50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
t [hrs]

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 39

 MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION

Finding variables’ values that bring the value of the

“objective function” to a minimum
In water resources many problems require solving an
optimization problem

D.P. Solomatine.
Hydroinformatics. 40
 Urban drainage system rehabilitation:
use of multi-objective optimization
rehabilitation: changing pipes, creating additional storages
optimization by multi-objective genetic algorithm:
find a compromise btw. min. cost and min. damage due to flooding

Compromise

Flood Damage
optimal solutions
Wastewater System Pipe
Network Model (MOUSE)
Data Processor Data Processor
Optimization Procedure Costs
(GLOBE, NSGA-II)
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 41
Using Random Search Global Optimization methods
in water distribution network rehabilitation

Optimization of Networks with Predetermined

Topology
Number and length of pipes
Demand at every node (including pressure)
Other hydraulic elements
Commercially available pipe sizes
Decision Variables
Diameter of each pipe in the network
Result: with optimal pipe diameters costs are
20% lower

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 42

Computational intelligence in generating inundation
maps, Yellow River Commission

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 43

 UNCERTAINTY

Uncertainties associated with climate change are very high

Different IPCC scenarios lead to very different results of
water models
Any study exploring the impacts of CC needs powerful
tools for analysing and predicting uncertainty

D.P. Solomatine.
Hydroinformatics. 44
 Role of uncertainty
in water management
80

So, issue a flood alarm or not?..

70 Alarm level One est i mat e
discharge

Upper bound
Lower bound
60
Deterministic
50 forecast
Prediction interval
Di schar ge
Forecasted river

40
(uncertainty)
30

20

10

0
1 11 21 31 41 51
Ti me

D.P. Solomatine.
Hydroinformatics. 45
 Monte Carlo simulation of parametric uncertainty
y = M(x, s, θ) + εs + εθ + εx + εy

D.P. Solomatine.
Hydroinformatics. 46
 Estimated prediction bounds: verification
(Bagmati river basin, Nepal)
Rainfall-Discharge plot

6000 0
50
5000
100

Precip itation [mm]

Runoff [Cumec]
4000
150
3000 200
250
2000
300
1000
350
0 400

Jan-88
M ay-88
Sep-88
Feb-89
Jun-89
Oct-89
M ar-90
Jul-90
Nov-90
Apr-91
Aug-91
Jan-92
M ay-92
Sep-92
Feb-93
Jun-93
Oct-93
M ar-94
Jul-94
Dec-94
Apr-95
Aug-95
Time [days]

Runoff [Cumec] Precipitation [mm]

4000
90% prediction limits
Observed flow (m /s)

Observed flow
3000
3

SF – Snow
RF – Rain
EA – Evapotranspiration
SP – Snow cover
SF
RF IN – Infiltration 2000
EA R – Recharge
SM – Soil moisture
CFLUX – Capillary transport
SP UZ – Storage in upper reservoir
IN
PERC – Percolation 1000
SM
LZ – Storage in lower reservoir
R CFLUX Qo – Fast runoff component
Q0 Q1 – Slow runoff component
UZ Q – Total runoff
0
PERC D.P. Solomatine.
Q1 Q=Q0+Q1 750 775 800 825 850
LZ Hydroinformatics. Transform
function 47 Time(day)
 Internet-based computing
and knowledge management

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 48

 Intranet

Access to knowledge via Internet

Conference tools

Document base with intelligent search

Case studies
Projects descriptions
Experts Expertise profiles
Experts' PCs
Knowledge
maps
Knowledge
bases

Databases
Document
bases
Software
Database and (modelling
Web Application Server
transaction server systems)

Support for Communities of Practice

Functions

Access to data-,
Forum Computer
Messaging knowledge- and Distance learning
(bulleting board) conferencing
document base

Authorization and support for E-commerce

Web-based platform for engineering services

Internet

Users Client's PC D.P. Solomatine. IntroductionMobile

to Hydroinformatics
client's PC Users 49
 Examples of systems
developed by MSc and PhD participants

modelling across Internet (Delphi, PHP, Java)

water distribution system modelling (exercise, Delphi)

free-surface modelling across Internet (individual study, Java)
distrbuted database for the water authority of Egypt
(individual study, thin-client DB, Delphi)
flood warning system (PhD study, Delphi)

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 50

Example: water distribution modelling

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 51

Example: web-based decision support system

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 52

Hydroinformatics specialisation at IHE

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 53

 Hydroinformatics programme at IHE
Fundamentals, hydraulic, hydrologic and environmental processes
Information systems, GIS, communications, Internet
• ArcGIS • Matlab • JAVA
• Access Tools • Delphi • UltraDev

Physically-based • SOBEK • MIKE 11

simulation modelling
• RIBASIM
• Delft 3D
• HEC-
HEC-RAS
• MIKE 21
with applications to:
and tools
• SWAT • MIKE SHE - River basin management
• EPANET • RIBASIM
• MOUSE • WEST++ - Flood management
Data-driven modelling • Aquarius • MODFLOW
- Urban systems
and computational • NeuroSolutions - Coastal systems
• NeuralMachine
intelligence tools • AFUZ - Groundwater and
• WEKA
catchment hydrology
Systems analysis, • LINGO
- Environmental systems
decision support, • GLOBE
• BSCW (options)
optimization • AquaVoice

Integration of technologies, project management

Elective advanced topics

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 54
 Hydroinformatics Study Modules

Introduction to Water science and Engineering

Applied Hydraulics
Geo-information systems
Computational Hydraulics and Information Management
Modelling theory and applications
Computational Intelligence and Control Systems
River Basin Modelling
Environmental systems modelling
Fieldtrip to Florida, USA
Selective modelling subjects:
Flood risk management
Urban water systems modelling
Environmental systems modelling
Hydroinformatics for Decision Support
Groupwork
Research proposal drafting and Special Topics
MSc research
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 55
 Examples of MSc topics

Flood modelling and forecasting for Awash river basin in Ethiopia

Harmful Algal Bloom prediction, case study of Western Xiamen Bay,
China
Application of Neural Networks to rainfall-runoff modelling in the
upper reach of the Huai river basin, China
Heihe River Basin Water Resources Decision Support System
Decision Support System for Irrigation Management in Vietnam
Hydroinformatics for real time water quality management and
operation of distribution networks, case study Villavicencio, Colombia
1D-2D Coupling Urban Flooding Model using radar data in Bangkok
Urban Flood Warning System with wireless technology, case Study of
Dhaka City, Bangladesh
Water distribution modelling with intermittent supply: sensitivity
analysis and performance evaluation for Bani-Suhila City, Palestine
D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 56
 Examples of MSc topics

using neural network model to replicate the behaviour of a complex

hydrodynamic model
using fuzzy rule-based system to restore the missing rainfall data
using neural networks and fuzzy systems for controlling water levels
in polder areas
using data mining and chaos theory to predict the surge in the coastal
areas of The Netherlands for ship guidance

Note: around 50% of Hydroinformatics participants continue on with

PhD programmes

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 57

 Short courses (typically 3 weeks)
www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses

River Basin Modelling

Introduction to River Flood Modelling
Flood Modelling for Management (Online course)
Flood Risk Management
Urban Flood Modelling and Disaster Risk Management
Urban Water Systems Modelling
Environmental Systems Modelling (2 weeks)
Decision Support Systems in River Basin Management
New data sources to support flood modelling (1 week)

Links:
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/Urban-Flood-Modelling-and-Disaster-Risk-Management
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/Urban-Water-Systems-Modelling
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Online-courses/Flood-Modelling-for-Management
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/Flood-Risk-Management
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/Introduction-to-River-Flood-Modelling
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/Environmental-Systems-Modelling
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/River-Basin-Modelling
http://www.ihe.nl/Education/Short-courses/Online-courses/Decision-Support-Systems-in-River-Basin-Management
http://www.unesco-ihe.org/Education/Short-courses/Regular-short-courses/New-data-sources-to-support-flood-modelling
 Conclusion

Hydroinformatics is a unifying approach to water

modelling and management
Hydroinformatics is technology driven, so it uses the most
modern technologies and research results
Specialists in hydroinformatics play an integrating role
linking various specialists and managers
Hydroinformatics specialists:
this is what the water sector needs

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 59

 What Hydroinformatics alumni say...

the course opened the new horizons in

my professional life

D.P. Solomatine. Introduction to Hydroinformatics 60