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&S

REPUBLIC OF KENYA
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT & FORESTRY
KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7, Fax: 254 (0) 20 3876955/3877373/3867888,
e-mail: director@meteo.go.ke, info@meteo.go.ke Website: http://www.meteo.go.ke

Ref. No. KMD/FCST/4-2018/MO/09 Date: 27th August 2018

WEATHER REVIEW FOR AUGUST AND THE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2018
1. SUMMARY
Most parts of the country were dry during the month of August 2018. The Western parts of the
country, however, recorded significant amounts of rainfall that were generally depressed at
several stations as compared to the monthly Long-Term Means (LTMs). The rainfall
occasionally spread to the central parts of the country including Nairobi area towards the end of
August.
Kakamega Meteorological Station recorded the highest monthly rainfall total of 197.1mm which
is 90 percent of its monthly LTM.

Cool and cloudy conditions were dominant in the Central highlands including Nairobi for most
of the month. A few days, however, were warm and sunny. Both the daytime and nighttime
temperatures were higher than average in most parts of the country including the Central
Highlands.

The outlook for September 2018 indicates that several parts of the country will continue to be
generally sunny and dry. The Western Highlands (Kericho, Kitale, Eldoret, Kakamega,
Bungoma), LakeVictoria Basin (Kisumu, Kisii, Busia) and parts of Central Rift Valley (Nakuru,
Nyahururu) are however, likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency to below
average. Occasional light morning showers are expected along the Coastal strip while the
Central Highlands and Nairobi area are likely to experience occasional cool and cloudy
conditions especially at the beginning of the month.

2. REVIEW OF THE WEATHER DURING AUGUST 2018

2.1 Rainfall Review


Most parts of the country remained generally dry during the month of August 2018. The driest
conditions were recorded over Northeastern, Northwestern, Southeastern as well as Central
Kenya (including Nairobi area) where most meteorological stations recorded monthly rainfall
amounts of less than 10mm.Wajir, Mandera, Thika and Makindu, for example, recorded no
rainfall at all as at 29 th August, 2018.
Several stations in Western Kenya recorded significant rainfall amounts.The rainfall was
however, below average at most stations compared with their August monthly LTMs. Kakamega
station recorded the highest monthly rainfall total of 197.1mm which is 90 percent of its monthly
LTM. Eldoret Airport, Kericho, Kisii, Kitale, Nyahururu, Eldoret (Kapsoya), Lamu and Msabaha
stations recorded 156.7mm (68%), 156.5mm (82%), 110.2mm(62%), 109.3mm (73%), 88.6mm
(59%), 82.6mm (52%),57.6mm (138%) and 57.1mm (89%) respectively. The rest of the stations
recorded less than 40mm as seen in figure 1.

2.2 Temperature Review


The daytime (maximum) and nighttime (minimum) temperatures were higher than average over
most parts of the country including the central region and Nairobi.
The lowest daily maximum temperature of 15.2°C was recorded at Kangema Meteorological
Station on 28thAugust while the highest maximum temperature of 38.8°C was recorded at
Lodwar station on11th August. Nyeri Meteorological station recorded the lowest monthly
average maximum temperature of 20.6°C while Lodwar recorded the highest monthly average
maximum temperature of 34.8°C.

Nyahururu meteorological station recorded the lowest daily minimum temperature of 3.6°C
on7thAugust while the highest minimum temperature of 27.0°C was recorded at Lodwar
meteorological station on 22 nd.
The lowest monthly average minimum temperature of 6.6°C was recorded at Nyahururu while
the highest monthly average minimum temperature of 25.1°C was recorded at Lodwar.

2.3 Prevailing Synoptic Conditions during August 2018


During the month of August 2018, ENSO-neutral (absence of eitherEl Niño or La Niña)
conditions prevailed in the Pacific Ocean. The SSTs over the eastern and central equatorial
Pacific Ocean were, however, slightly warmer than average. Cooler than average Sea Surface
Temperatures (SSTs) prevailed over western equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East
African coast) while the SSTs over eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) were
neutral.
The St. Helena high-pressure system remained moderately strong for most of the month. The
Eastern Africa high-pressure ridge also remained moderately strong. The ridge was, however,
weaker than average for most of the month and this led to the warmer than average temperatures
over most parts of the country. However, the incursion of stable air from the south resulted in
cool and cloudy conditions over the highlands east of the Rift Valley, and central Kenya
including Nairobi region.

The Meridional (North-south) arm of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was mainly
over central Africa and Uganda but occasionally shifted eastwards to the western and central
parts of Kenya resulting in rainfall over these areas. The zonal armwas mainly situated in
northern parts of Africa beyond Kenyan borders.

3. WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2018


On average, most parts of the country are expected to experience generally sunny and dry
weather conditions during the month of September except western Kenya. The central regions
will experience occasional cool and cloudy conditions especially at the beginning of the month.
Figure 2 depicts the normal rainfall distribution in the country during the month of September.

FIGURE 2: SEPTEMBER NORMAL RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION


KENYA
3.1 Rainfall Outlook
The rainfall forecast for September 2018 is based on the observed patterns of the Global Sea
SurfaceTemperatures (SSTs) and more so those over the Indian Ocean. The cooler than average
SSTs in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African Coast) and the neutral
SSTs in the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia) were taken into account.
It is expected that several parts of the country will be generally dry for most of the month.
However, near-average to below-average rainfall is likely to be experienced over the Western
highlands, Lake Victoria Basin and parts of the Central Rift Valley as depicted in figure 3.
FIGURE 3: SEPTEMBER 2018 RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN KENYA

3.2 Expected Temperatures


Daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over the entire
country. The Central Highlands including Nairobi are likely to experience occasional cool and
cloudy conditionsin the mornings.

3.3 The specific outlook for individual areas is as follows:


a) The Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kitale, Kericho, Nandi, Eldoret, Kakamega),Lake
Victoria Basin (Kisumu, Kisii, Busia) and parts of the Central Rift Valley (Nakuru,
Nyahururu, Aberdares region) will experience near-average to below average rainfall with
occasional afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

b) The Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Nyeri, Muranga, Kiambu, Embu, Meru) and
Nairobi area (Dagoretti, Kabete, Wilson, Eastleigh, Ngong) are likely to experience
occasional cool and cloudy conditions in the mornings especially at the beginning of the
month. Sunny and dry weather conditions will, however, prevail for most of the month. The
daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average.

c) The Coastal strip (Lamu, Malindi, Msabaha, Mombasa, Mtwapa, Kilifi) are likely to
experience generally dry weather conditions with occasional light morning showers.

d) The Northwestern Region (Lodwar, Lokichoggio, Lokitaung), Northeastern Kenya


(Marsabit, Garbatulla, Wajir, Mandera, Moyale), Southeastern Kenya (Machakos,Makindu,
Voi) and parts of central and south Rift Valley (Narok, Magadi, Kajiado) are likely to be
generally sunny and dry throughout the month.
4. EXPECTED IMPACTS
 The expected sunny and dry weather conditions over Northeastern and Southern
lowlands as well as the Coastal region are likely to lead to reduced pastures for livestock
in these regions.
 The expected rainfall over the western highlands, though depressed, is likely to continue
to impact positively on crop performance over these areas especially in the North Rift.
This in turn is likely to improve food security in the country.
 Visibility is likely to be occasionally poor in some parts of Central Highlands, Nairobi
and parts of Central Rift Valley especially at the beginning of the month. Motorists are
cautioned to exercise extra care when driving along roads such as Limuru-Nakuru-
Eldoret to avoid accidents.

Stella Aura, MBS


Ag. Director of Meteorological Services