EEE 6906

  Reliability of Power System

  Reliability Basics
  October 2017

A H Chowdhury
Professor, EEE, BUET
Reliability Basics

Table of Contents

 Concept of reliability
 Quantitative reliability
 Adequacy and security
 Reliability indices
 Steps of reliability evaluation
 Exercises

2
2
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Reliability is the probability of a device performing its purpose

adequately for the period of time intended under the operating
conditions encountered

 The definition has four basic parts

– Probability

– Adequate performance

– Time

– Operating conditions

3
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Probability provides numerical input for assessment of reliability

– It is first index of system adequacy
– The most significant index

 Appropriate reliability indices are determined using probability theory

 Single all-purpose reliability formula or technique does not exist

 Approach used and resulting formula depends upon the problem and assumptions
made

 Validity of reliability analysis of a system directly related to validity of model used

to represent the system

4
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Adequate performance, time, operating conditions are engineering parameters

– Probability theory can not assist for this part of assessment

 Engineer responsible for a system can supply information related to

‘performance adequacy’
 ‘Time intended' may be continuous or very sporadic
 ‘Operating conditions' may be uniform or extremely variable, e.g.
– Propulsion phases associated with space rockets
– Take-off, cruising and landing of commercial flights

• Products and systems operating outdoors have highly variable operating

environment
– Component failure rates usually closely related to operating conditions and stress level
of environment

5
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Reliability of a power system refers to the probability of its satisfactory

operation over the long run. It denotes the ability to supply adequate electric
service on a nearly continuous basis, with few interruptions over an extended
time period

- IEEE Paper on Terms & Definitions, 2004

6
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) define reliability as

"the degree to which the performances of the elements of [the electrical]

system result in power being delivered to consumers within accepted standards
and in the amount desired"

 In this definition reliability refers to ability of power system components to deliver

electricity to all points of consumption, in the quantity and with the quality
demanded by the customer

7
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

Disturbances and Outages

 Reliability is often measured by frequency, duration and extent of power system
disturbances and outages
Disturbance
 Any unplanned event, including an outage, that produces an abnormal system
condition
Outage
 Can be described in terms of frequency, duration, and amount of load (or
numbers of customers) affected
 A momentary outage is defined as an outage that lasts less than five minutes
– Corresponding to time allowed for automatic reclosing schemes to try to restore a
circuit if fault was temporary
 A sustained outage lasts longer than five minutes

8
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 From consumer’s perspective, transmission- and distribution-related outages are

most important to real-time reliability (system security)

 Generation and other system component outages are typically most significant to
system planners
– Because they tend to affect adequacy of electricity system as a whole

– With appropriate planning, consumers will generally be buffered from effects of these
outages

9
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 An outage or disturbance of a system component may or may not cause an

interruption of service
 may affect power quality even if service is not interrupted

 Of much greater importance although are economic consequences of interruptions

or disturbances in electricity service

 Power system must incorporate redundancy to guard against disturbances and

outages

10
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

Disturbance Terms
 Reduced reliability affects adequacy, security, and/or quality of power supply
 Voltage disturbances can take the form of either under- or overvoltages
– Undervoltage is a decrease of more than 10 percent in supply voltage
– Overvoltage is an increase of more than 10 percent

 A voltage sag is a sudden, unintended, short-term reduction of the normal supply

– Can be caused by short circuits on power system or by start-up of a large load, such as a
motor
– Motors can cause problems because of large start-up currents (usually 3 to 10 times higher
than nominal current)
– Load start-ups have less impact In networks with high short-circuit power than on networks
with small amounts of short-circuit power

11
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Longer duration voltage regulation problems typically occur when power system is
not strong enough to supply load properly, causing an extended undervoltage

 A brownout occurs when electrical voltage reduces more than 10% below normal for
a sustained period
– Lights dim slightly, and a brownout can last anywhere from few seconds to a few hours

 Blackouts are long periods of completely interrupted service

 Load interruptions can be either automatic or result of operator action as long as

the specific actions, including magnitude of load interrupted, are identified by
planning criteria, and corresponding operating procedures are in place when a
disturbance occurs

12
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

Reliability and Power Quality

 Reliability and power quality are related but separate issues

 Simplest definition for reliability is that electricity is available when it is needed

 Power quality describes characteristics, in terms of continuity and voltage, of

supplied electricity as delivered to customers at supply terminals under normal
operating conditions

 Insufficient power quality can be caused by

1. Failures and switching operations in network which result in voltage dips, interruptions,
and transients
2. Network disturbances from loads that result in flicker, harmonics, and phase imbalance

13
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Nature of these disturbances is related to short-circuit capacity in network

– Short-circuit depends on network's configuration (e.g., length of the lines, short-circuit
capacity of generators and transformers, etc.)

 To protect system from degradation in power quality, it is important for network

operators to guarantee a specified minimum short-circuit capacity

14
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Any variation from pure waveform is considered a degradation of power quality

1) Voltage out of the specified acceptable range
2) Frequency variations
3) Harmonics, i.e., frequencies other than 50 Hz
4) Transients resulting from spikes, switching, or other disturbances

 Customers can control quality of their power by installing regulating devices at their
point of connection (at a cost)

 This is a key difference between power quality and reliability problems

 A customer's options for influencing power reliability are more limited

 Choices are to invest in uninterruptible power supply (UPS) devices or distributed

generation, both of which are costly

15
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Reactive power has important influence on voltage control and system stability

 Summer peak demands together with heavy reactive power transfers degrade
reliability
– Reactive power injections to transmission system needed to maintain adequate voltage and
prevent voltage instability
– Inductive loads (such as air conditioners, main reason for summer peak demands), tend to
draw significant amounts of reactive power from the electricity system

 Reactive power needs are growing ever more important as collective use of
transmission system increases

 Because reactive power transfer reduces transmission capability of networks, it

should be generated where it is needed rather than transported over long distances

16
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Potential solutions to solve voltage problems

1) Increasing the size of transformers, reducing line length, adding series capacitors, or
increasing size of line conductors (to reduce system impedance)
2) Adding shunt capacitors or static VAR compensators
3) Upgrading lines to the next voltage level (to reduce line current)
4) Increasing reactive power factor of generators

 Any power system, no matter how well balanced, always has a voltage imbalance of
1.0-1.5% of nominal voltage even when in steady-state mode
– Caused mainly by asymmetry in geometry of overhead lines as well as by load imbalance
(e.g., various single-phase loads connected to distribution system)

 Utilities generally try to regulate voltage supplied to customers within ±5%

17
Reliability Basics

Concept of Reliability

 Variable-speed drives and microprocessor-based controls, are more sensitive to

voltage variations and can also produce voltage disturbances and harmonics
 Harmonics are sinusoidal current and voltage frequencies that are integral multiples
of fundamental 50-Hz power system frequency
– Distorted waveforms can be decomposed into a sum of fundamental frequency and
harmonics

 Harmonics caused by loads that have non-linear voltage-current characteristics

– variable speed drives, electronic rectifiers, power supplies, arc furnaces, etc.

 Level of harmonic current flowing into system impedance (which varies with
frequency) determines harmonic voltage distortion level
 Harmonic current distortion contribute to heating of power transformer
– Transformers must be derated for harmonics

18
Reliability Basics

Table of Contents

 Concept of reliability
 Quantitative reliability
 Adequacy and security
 Reliability indices
 Steps of reliability evaluation
 Exercises

19
19
Reliability Basics

Quantitative Reliability

 Reliability relates to the ability of a system to perform its intended function

 Qualitative vs. quantitative concept of reliability
– Aim of qualitative analysis is a complete, detailed description
– No attempt is made to assign frequencies to events which are identified in data
– Rare events receives same amount of attention as more frequent event
– Findings are not tested to discover whether they are statistically significant or due to chance

– Quantitative analysis classifies events, count them, and even construct more complex
statistical models
– Allows us to discover which events are likely to be genuine reflections of system behaviour
– For statistical purposes, classifications have to be distinctive
– An event either belongs to class x or it doesn't
– Quantitative analysis tends to sideline rare occurrences

20
Reliability Basics

Quantitative Reliability

 When quantitatively defined, reliability becomes a parameter that can be traded

off with other parameters like cost

 Necessity of quantitative reliability : decision making

 Ever increasing complexity of system design and operation

 Evaluation of alternate design proposals

 Cost competitiveness and cost-benefit trade off

21
Reliability Basics

Quantitative Reliability

 Consider a load of 400 MW, which of the following alternatives is the best
Load
considering cost and reliability?
 4 generators 100 MW each
Load

33
4
 5 generators 100 MW each

5
Load
 10 generators 50 MW each

10
1

9
4

22
Reliability Basics

Quantitative Reliability

 Probability provides numerical input for assessment of reliability

 Many more parameters are used depending on system and its requirements
– These parameters generally termed reliability indices
– Reliability describes all these indices

 Examples of additional indices:

– expected number of failures that will occur in a specified period of time
– average time between failures
– average outage duration or down-time of a device
– expected loss in revenue due to failure
– expected loss of output due to failure

23
Reliability Basics

Quantitative Reliability

Most Important Indices

 Probability of failure
– Long run fraction of time system is failed

 Frequency of failure
– Expected or average number of failures per unit time

 Mean duration of failure

– Mean duration of a single failure

 Other indices can be generally obtained as a function of the above

24
Reliability Basics

Table of Contents

 Concept of reliability
 Quantitative reliability
 Adequacy and security
 Reliability indices
 Steps of reliability evaluation
 Exercises

25
25
Reliability Basics

Adequacy and Security

 Two aspects of reliability

 Adequacy

 Security Reliability

Adequacy Security

26
Reliability Basics

Adequacy and Security

 Most definitions of reliability encompass two concepts: adequacy and security

Adequacy

 "the ability of the system to supply the aggregate electric power and energy
requirements of the consumers at all times, taking into account scheduled and
reasonably expected unscheduled outage of system elements "
– i.e. sufficient generation and transmission resources are available to meet projected needs
at all times, including under peak conditions, with reserves for contingencies

 Adequacy is relevant to static system conditions and long-term planning and

investment

27
Reliability Basics

Adequacy and Security

Security

 Security refers to "the ability of the system to withstand sudden disturbances"

– System system’s ability to remain intact after planned and unplanned outages or other equipment
failures

 Security relates to robustness of the system to imminent disturbances and, hence,

depends on system operating condition as well as contingent probability of disturbances

 Security is associated with system dynamics and short-term operations

 Efforts to address reliability must consider both adequacy and security, that is, both
long-term system expansion plans and short-term operational concerns

28
Reliability Basics

Adequacy and Security

Operator’s view of security

Security
“Any consequence of a credible disturbance that
requires a limit”

Angle/
Overload Voltage Frequency
Security Security security

Trans- Line Low Unstable Frequency Rotor angle

former Overload Voltage Voltage instability instability
Overload

Static security Dynamic security

29
Reliability Basics

Table of Contents

 Concept of reliability
 Quantitative reliability
 Adequacy and security
 Reliability indices
 Steps of reliability evaluation
 Exercises

30
30
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

 Each component of power system has a specific reliability index, and failure of one
can directly impact others

 Transmission system's reliability index normally expressed as percent of system

average availability and is typically greater than 99 percent

 IEEE Standard 1366 defines 12 outage indices

– These indices capture effects of number of outages, both momentary and sustained, as
well as duration of each outage
– Computed from the past year's or several years' utility data
– Indices ultimately relate to customer satisfaction, which is based on total length of
interruptions and frequency of interruptions

31
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI)

 Average number of interruptions per customer during the year

– Give information about average frequency of sustained interruptions (those lasting more than
five minutes) per customer in a predefined area

 Determined by dividing total annual number of customer interruptions by total

number of customers served during year

where, Ni is the number of interruptions to customers

NT is the total number of customers served

32
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI)

 Average duration of interruptions for customers who experience an interruption

during the year

 Determined by dividing sum of all durations of service interruptions to customers by

total number of customers

 Commonly referred to as Customer Minutes of Interruption or Customer Hours

– Give information about average time during which customers’ power supply is interrupted.

 It is calculated as:

where, ri is the duration of each interruption

33
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index (CAIFI )

 Average number of interruptions for customers who experience interruptions during
the year
– Gives average frequency of sustained interruptions for customers who experience sustained
interruptions

 Calculated by dividing total annual number of interruptions of power to customers

by total number of customers affected by interruptions during the year

 For this calculation, a customer is counted once regardless of number of times

interrupted

where, Ni is the number of interruptions to customers

CN is the total number of customers whose power is interrupted

34
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI)

 Average time required to restore service to the average customer per sustained
interruption

35
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE)

 Also referred to as Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

 Forecasts expected number of days in the year when daily peak demand will exceed
available generating capacity
– This number is obtained by calculating probability of daily peak demand exceeding
available capacity for each day and adding these probabilities for all the days in the year

 Referred to as Hourly Loss-of-Load-Expectation if hourly demands are used in

calculations instead of daily peak demands

36
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE)

 LOLE calculated using load duration curve or individual hourly values

 Area under load duration curve represents energy utilized

 Can be used to calculate expected energy not supplied due to insufficient installed
capacity and expressed as a ratio

Load energy curtailed due to deficienci es in generating capacity available

Total load energy required to serve requiremen ts of system
 Area under load duration curve represents energy utilized
 For a given load duration curve this ratio is independent of time period considered
and gives 'energy index of unreliability'

37
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

 Any outage of generating capacity exceeding reserve result in a curtailment

of system load energy

 Let:
Ok = magnitude of the capacity outage

Pk = probability of a capacity outage equal to Ok

Ek = energy curtailed by a capacity outage equal to Ok

 Probable energy curtailed : EkPk

 Sum of these products gives total expected energy curtailment or loss of

energy expectation (LOEE) n
LOEE   Ek Pk
k 1

38
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

Absolute reliability indices

 Absolute indices are values that a system is expected to exhibit

 Can be monitored in terms of past performance because full knowledge of them is known

• Extremely difficult to predict for future with a very high degree of confidence
– Future performance contains considerable uncertainties particularly associated with
numerical data and predicted system requirements

– Models used are not entirely accurate representations of system behavior but are
approximations

39
Reliability Basics

Reliability Indices

Relative reliability indices

 Relative reliability indices easier to interpret and with considerable confidence
 System behavior evaluated before and after consideration of a design or operating
change
 Benefit of change obtained by evaluating relative improvement

 Indices compared with each other and not against specified targets
– This tends to ensure that uncertainties in data and system requirements are embedded in
all indices
– Therefore, reasonable confidence can be placed in relative differences

• In practice, a significant number of design or operating strategies or scenarios are

compared, and a ranking of benefits due to each is made

40
Reliability Basics

Table of Contents

 Concept of reliability
 Quantitative reliability
 Adequacy and security
 Reliability indices
 Steps of reliability evaluation
 Exercises

41
41
Reliability Basics

Steps of Reliability Evaluation

The most important aspect:

 Have a complete understanding of the engineering implications of the system

 Probability theory can not circumvent this important engineering function

 Probability theory as a tool enables us to transform knowledge of system into a prediction

of its likely future behavior

 Only on this understanding a model can be derived and most appropriate evaluation
technique chosen

 Both model and the technique must reflect and respond to the way system operates and
fails

42
Reliability Basics

Steps of Reliability Evaluation

 Basic steps are:

 Understand the ways in which components and system operate

 Identify ways in which failures can occur

 Deduce consequences of failures

 Derive models to represent these characteristics

 Only then select evaluation technique

43
Reliability Basics

Table of Contents

 Concept of reliability
 Quantitative reliability
 Adequacy and security
 Reliability indices
 Steps of reliability evaluation
 Exercises

44
44
Reliability Basics

Exercise

U1 D1 U2 D2 U3 D3 U4 D4
Up

status

Failed
Time

Up times Down times Cycle time

U1 = 100 h D1 = 10h 110 h
U2 = 45 h D2 = 10h 55 h
U3 = 76 h D3 = 10h 86 h
U4 = 90 h D4 = 4h 94 h

Total = 311 h 34 h 311 + 34 = 345 h

Suggest and calculate some reliability indices for the system.

45
Reliability Basics

Exercise

U1 D1 U2 D2 U3 D3 U4 D4
Up
status

Failed
Time

Up times Down times Cycle time

U1 = 100 h D1 = 10h 110 h
U2 = 45 h D2 = 10h 55 h
U3 = 76 h D3 = 10h 86 h
U4 = 90 h D4 = 4h 94 h
Total = 311 h 34 h 311 + 34 = 345 h

• Probability of failure = 34/(311+34) = 0.09855

• Frequency of failure = 4/345 = 0.011594 f/h = 101.565 f/yr
• Mean down time = 34/4 = 8.5 h
• Mean up time = 311/4 = 77.75 h
• Mean cycle time = 77.75 + 8.5 = 86.25 h

46