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Load restoration is only Load restoration
a means to an end Is the objective

Step 1,preparation Step 2, Step 3, load


actions are system restoration
time critical restoration

1-2 h

3-4 h

8-10 h

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Preparation
actions
T1 Time for
step 1

A: Energize
new
substation or
mesh
system?

E: Mesh
B: Connect
transmission
inductive load
system

No
C: Energize
substation
T2 Time for
step 2

D: Match
generation and
consumption

F: Target
system
reached?

Yes

Time for
T3 step 3
G: Restore load

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Substation Substation
transmission level distribution level

400 kV 130 kV Lower voltages

Backup power Backup power


transmission distribution
level level

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T
CB = CE + CCR = P (t)C(t)dt + CCR = @ 1 A
0
= C1 + C2 + C3 + CCR

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Expected cost for black out


Expected outage cost
Expected failure cost
Cost

Restoration speed

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γj = γ(Gj )1 ;0)#"!2  (6("   6 ! (  # "
  "%"" "2 λ2 (  "#0""2 μ1 &  "
6("2 % G1  G2 ( "  # G2  "!"% "  #  
%"  "!"% "6 γ1 21112 γl 1 7


⎪ γ1 0 < t < h1



⎪ .

Γ(t) =

.
.
@1 A



⎪ .


γl hl−1 < t < hl .
32 h1 , ..., hl    % 8  "%""  "  9(2
 "2 8  "!"%   6 !1 <)2 t ("  %1 
0! !  "#)) #2 8 )"  600!  
"!"% "  (  "!"% "6  " "2 " ) 0!
t
− Γ(u)du
R(t) = 1 − F (t) = e 0 @1 A
8 F (t) "  #%#) ("0# #  [0, ∞)1 2
 Γ(t) " (%(2 "" ":#"  0 )#(  %" 
600!   "!"% "6 (#   #   %6 8
0#(  "!"%1

 

   γj    Gj
 600!   "%""  8   % T 8 %
)2 (hj , hj+1 ] )   8$"  % hj 2 " ) 0!
   
 
  
  

P (Δt + hj > T > hj |T > hj ) ≈ λj Δtj @1A


 "% Δtj 8
Δtj = hj+1 − hj . @1A
 :1 @1A )"  600!   "%""  8 2
 %"2  /%6 FG2 (" (  )#  0!  8$"2
 0 #"(  (% #   %"  "!"% "61 32
  "$   #   "%""  (  "#0" (# %
) Δt 0

pi = λi Δt @1 A


pi = μi Δt @1 A
'#   %6/! 8 "#(!  6%    6"
8 # 6 %6"2 8 %6%""  #"#! %(1 
=" %6%" "  ( 8 0! 0#(" "(  / "#"1
 "( %6%" "  "%6!  !"" 0! (# 6
0 %6"1 7 ( )" FG ) 6"(   % %(
;' 8 )#"  l %" 600 " "6" ( %" 0#("
#" " " "6"1 48 " )  FG  "   "!"%
" (=( 0! " ( %6"2  "   6 Gf j 1   %
" %6# %6/! O(n20 l + n0l log l) 8 n0 "  %# 
# 6 %6"   "!"%1   " 6)  )  "
( )! "%6  8$ 82  " "#0  (%  0!
0#("   #  γj 1  6""0 ""   "!"%2 Gj 2 " ((
Skj 8 k = 1, ..., 2l 1  "  #"0  ""#%  " #


   "%"" "    "%" "  "
6"" " )! "  %1 32  600!  " Skj "
 ) 0!
  
P (Skj ) = pi (1 − pi ) pi @1 A
i∈Ef j i∈E
/ fj i ∈Vf j

(1 − pi ).
i ∈V
/ fj
  
 

 

 "  #"0  ""#%  pi << 1/2 ( pk << 1/2 8
%$" S1j  %" 600 " "6" 8 ! 8$ %6"1
 "( %" 600 " "6 "   8  %" #0
%6 " (1 38)2  / " "6 " % %6/ 
6(1  l %" 600 " "6"  " "6 j  
) 0!   % ;'  !  "#0  %1
 (  =(  0#("   #    "!"%  %" 
"!"% "62  " "6 "  0 )#(  :1 @1A " )(
 1  "6 6 !2  #%0   ( "#0 6 
 6 " :#  #%0  %" 9 66" "   )#  
76 %/   "!"% FG1 7 C = [cvw ] 0  |E| × |V | (
( %/  G 8 "

⎨ 1  v "  % )/  w
cvw =

0  v ( w   ( @1 A
−1  v "   )/  w

 #8 ( 6 %/   6 G "  ) 0!

QL (G) = C T C @1 A

8 QL (G) ∈ Rm×m 1 7 η(Gj ) 0  #%0  %" 9 " 
 )#   ""( 76 %/ Q(Gj )1 4#%2 
" "  0 )#(   # " #"(  "!"% "6 
 (  :1 @1A1 7

Kkj (Skj ) =
0  η(Gf j ) > η(Gj ) @1 A
1  1

& )  Kkj )  6""0 " "6"2 k2 E(Kj ) "
(%(1 E(Kj ) "  600!   "!"% 8   
"!"% "6 (#  "1 38)2 "   "!"%" 
"((2 0! 0#("  #"(1  8 0#( KLj (  #66
0#( KU j  E(Kj )  ) 0! F,G
   
 
  
  


m
KLj = P (Skj )Kkj (Skj ) @1 A
k=1

m
KU j = P (Skj )Kkj (Skj ) + @1 A
k=1

m
(1 − P (Skj )).
k=1

 "  #"0  ""#%  " #   


%6 (#  % ) "  % "6   "
"6 " ) "%1   #  " ""#%(  0 " 
0#("   #  " #( %

KLj
γLj =
Δtj
@1 A
KU j
γU j =
Δtj
@1 A
 )#  " ":#  j = 1, ..., l :1 @1 A " #"(1
   
   

  %6  0   # %(  8$ %(2 
#%0  " "6"  2n 8 n0j "  #%0  # 6
0j

%6"  6 Gj 1   " ""#%(   "%"" " ( 
"#0""  "" (  # 2  " 8  #%0  "
"6" ""  " " 8  "%""  " #"(  %" 
"!"% " !  8 # 6 %6 " (#(  
61 32  %%#% #%0  " "6"2 SN 2   "
":# " ) 0!

n
SN ≥ 2j =2n+1 − 1 @1A
j=1

  8" "2  #%0  # 6 %6" "" 8
8  )! "%"" 1 " "  " 8  "%""  "
  
 

 

#"(   9  "#0"1 32  #%0  " "6" 8 8!"
0 "" 

n
SN ≤ 22(j+1) @1 A
j=1

 '  . 1   !   /.  


" " 8 6"  66  %%9  600!  
"!"% "6 (#  "1 >"( 4 1 1  1 
" ":# a)  "#0"" ) 0  9(  "6 2 (
 " ":# b)  "#0"" ) 0  9(  "6 1
  "%""  " "  "6 2  "!"%  " ":#
a) 8 0 1 38)2  "!"%  " ":# b) 8 0
"6(1 32  "6 " "   ""   "#0" " "
"#0" %  0  %6   ( 0#"1   "%""
 " # 9(2  8 0  "!"% "6   6# 
("  0   !1 32  ! " (=( " 8"1
) *

 + +    ,   ,      ! 
                "

 4 1 1  "  !  6 !   " ":# a)


(  ! " #(  "6 #  " ":# b)1 >"(
"2  6""0 " ! "  %%9  #%0  "%"" "
8 (  0   ! (#  " #(  "
 ! m "  8(  0 #"(  %"  "!"% (# 
"1 32 "#%%9 66"   #( "!"%" (#
 " " 66"( "  %"#   " ":#  
"%"" (1 >"( " ( #" (= 2  8
%%9 60% " 66"(1

n
%/%9 τ (j) L(j)
c @1A
j=1

"11 l = n + m − 1.
      
 
   
  

c "  #%0  "%"" " 8 0   ! 


2 L(j)
"6 j 2 τ (j) "  % "6  " 6 !2   8  2 l " 
#%0  "%"" "     "!"% 8  "#0"" )
0  9(2 m "  #%0  " #"(  %" ( n "  
#%0  "#0""   91    "!"% "   "!"%
8  "#0""   9( ( m "  #%0  "%"" "
#"(  %"  "%"" "!"%  "% "6 (#  "1
"  /%62  4 1 1 a)2 m = 1 (  %" " %(  "6 
 " ":# (    "!"% " (  "6 1 
%%9  :1 @1A " 0( 0! %"  "!"%    
"6   " 08    0#""1 32  " ""2  "
""#%(   6 ! "  :# %62  τ (j) = 1 
 j 1  "#  " 60% 8 6  6  $   
("  0/ 2 #("( 8  %"  "!"%  0/ 2 ( 8
"#0"   9  0/   4 1 11  %%9 " 0( 0!
 9  "%"" "    (1
 600!   "!"% "6  0 )8( "  %"# 
8 8 (  "%"" "!"% "1 38 8 ( 
"%"" "!"% 8 " )  %6  "  ( 6
 66"1  6#6"   8 "" "  "8 
 60%  0 9( (  "8 " "1

    

32  8 0 "8   "   08 8 8 ( 
"%"" "!"% " ( "% 6  66" ( 
 600!   "!"% "61
8 " 6 66"   (% (  % ("
  61 " 8 )#"  0 " "  %"#  8 8
(  6 "1  (%   6 "       !
    08 ! 8 )"1  "  #%0  ( " 
%#" 0 )"(  (  ) 08 8 )" 8# (#"1
 6 8   " (% "   8 ( " ( )"
%  2 "  4 1 1 b)1 %)  )  (  % " 6
8 #"  "6   61  6 8  8" (% "
 %6 62 Kn 1   %6 62  )" "  ( 1 ;
/%6  8 6" 8 # )" " "8  4 1 11   = #2
  
 

 

a) "  %6 6 ( b) "  6 8  )" %  1 
(% "   %6 6 (     61
a) b)

4 # 1
/%6  8 " ":#"   "%"" (1

 % (  6 "2  8  (% "1 2
  "%"" "!"% " 9( 0!    #%0  0#"" ( 
6 ! 9( 0!  8 6 (%2  %"   0#"" 
"    $  4 1 1 a)1 >"( 4 1 11  = # "8" 
" ":#   "%"" "!"%   6 %1  "
( 0#""2 (  " ( "%"" "1  ("( "
( 6""0 8!"  %"  "!"%1 &  "%"" "!"%
" 6 ! a)   8 8!"  %"  "!"% "  b)1 <"
#" "%""    " " 8 %%9  (%   "
61 8 "#0""   9( 8  " 6(" ( 
6 ! 6"(  c) 66"1 32    6""0"  %"
 "!"% "  d)1
a) b)

c) d)
1 2

4 # 1
/%6  8 " ":#"   "%"" (1
5" "%""   %"  "!"% 8  .  (%
      
 
   
  

  61 38)2 0 "%""   (  8 (# 
(%   61  " 6# "2 "%""   8
(#  (%   ( "%""   8 (#  (%
 1 2 "%""   8   "!"% 8  0#""
 " "    " 6""01 3  "#( " 0 (  
"%""   " #"(  %"  "!"%  d2  ""   "%""
 8  #"  "!"% "61 38)2  "%""   "
#"(  %"  "!"%2   8 "%"" " 8 #( #"
 "61
2  (% "  %"#  8 8 (  6 "2 (
 "%"  0   08  (%   6 ( 
600!   "!"% "6   (    )" " %)(2 
8 " 60% " 66"(1

n
%%9 (%(G(j) ) @1A
j=1

"11 l = n + m − 1.

2 (%(G(j) ) "   (%   6  "6 j  


"1 "2 l "  #%0  "%"" "     "!"%
8  "#0"" ) 0  9(2 m "  #%0  " #"( 
%" ( n "   #%0  "#0""   91   
"!"% "   "!"% 8  "#0""   9( ( m " 
#%0  "%"" " #"(  %"  "%"" "!"%  "%
"6 (#  "1  %%9 " 0( 0! %" 
"!"%     "6   " 08    0#""1

  
  


32  " "8   " 6""0  "#  %/ 6" 
6 !   "%"" "!"%  "   )# 8 ("0"
8 8 (  6 " ( %6"" 0#("   (%
  61 " %  " 11 2  %6 %/ #"( 
/% 6" "  6 %/  G1  2  C = [cvw ] 0 
|E| × |V | ( ( %/  G 8 "
  
 

 


⎨ 1  v "  % )/  w
cvw =

0  v ( w   ( @1A
−1  v "   )/  w
7 D(G) 0  (  %/ 8 D = [dkk ]2 "  8   ( 
k 8 " )" v ( w1  8 ( 6 %/  
6 G "  ) 0!
Q(G) = C T DC @1A
8 Q(G) ∈ Cn×n1 " %/ " %6 "  "( "%"
 )# " 0 ) %#  FG F G1 7  "
6!%  Q(G) 0 μL (G, x)1 7  "   6!% 0 
6 "6#%   61 32  "6 " 8  8 "
  ( "  " "((1 7   )#"  " 6 %/
0  ( "#  0 = λ1 ≤ λ2 ≤ ... ≤ λn 1  2 !  (% 
 6 " 0 "( "  %"#  8 8 (  6 "1
;  %"# "  % ("   61  % ("
"2  "   (%2  )    "" ("" 08
 ("1 32  % (" " (( ρ̄1  6 "6#%
  6 Q " 0 #"(  ") "  %% " (
 "( "%"  )#   "6#%2   0 )!2
(  "6(  ) ) 0 ) 6# 2
 /%6  FG2 FG ( FG1  "( "%"  )#2 λ22
" 600!  %" %6 )#   6 "6#%1 "
6#  )# )" "0 0#("  ") 66" 
6" 8  )! (  %6#2  /%6  % ("
FG2  (% FG2 FG (  "6% #%0 F G1 " 8$"
"8(   "( "%"  )# %6"" ) 0#(" 
66"  6" 8  0 )8( " %"#"  )!2 "#
"  (% (  % ("1   8 (=
" %( 1
) *

 +  !   #, λ2 ,   !  G  
   ! #     ) Q(G)"

4( (  "6(  )    0 )!


 " )#  G FG1 4#%2 4( "8( 
      
 
   
  

 "     08  " )# ( 


 0 )! FG1 7 y 0  " )# ( dvw ∈
R  8    (   v ( w1 4( ()(  /6""
 λ2 ( 

dvw (yv − yw )
λ2 =
w,(v,w)
yw
. @1 A
  " "%  8!"  /6"" λ2 1 4 /%62 4(
()(  FG 
λ2 = min xT M x
x∈W
@1 A
8 x "  ) ""! xT x = 1 ( xT e = 01 32 e "  #
)1 <)2 W ("  "   #% )"  x ( M "
! ":# %/ 8  8" "#%  9 @"   6 %/A1
% (  08 6"" 0#("   (% (  %
("   6 8 λ2 66"1  )/ (  "  #%0 
( "    )/ (  (" "  #%0  ( " 
"  0 )"(  (  ) 08 8 )"1
-(   +
 G   ! !  n #, n ≥ 2, Δ
   ) #) !, ρ̄    ,  (G)   
  !  0 = λ1 ≤ λ2 ≤ ... ≤ λn      ! # " 

01
(%(G) ≥ nλ4 @1A
2

01
Δ + λ2
(%(G) ≤ 2 4λ2
ln(n − 1) @1A
01
n Δ + λ2
ρ̄ ≤
n−1 4λ2
ln(n − 1) . @1A
0#1
2 n−2
(n − 1)ρ̄ ≥
λ2
+
2
. @1 A
  
 

 

?"  )  FG1


-(   +
 VA VB    V (G)    ρ
 E      !    #     VA  VB " 


|VA ||VB |
|E  | ≥ ρ2 λ2
|VA | + |VB |
. @1A

 6 " #(  FG1 32  0"# )#" ("  #%0 
)"   #%0  ( "   "1  /%6  % 
" )   4 1 1 081  6   = # " |E  | = 1 (
|VA | = |VB | = 81    λ2 %6"    |E  | 8  #" %" 
  ") ( " 08  (. "#0""1
A B

4 # 1
D6 8 8 "#0"" V1 ( V21

  8 %" 6"(2  "#( 0 (     λ2


%6"" 8 0#("  0  (% (  % ("  
61 <)2  8 % "#( " 0 (1
-(   +
  !  G    G     ! 
 !   G" 
λ2 (G ) ≥ λ2 (G) @1A
      
 
   
  

 6 " #(  FG1  FG 4( 6)(  %) 
(  8 ("  )#    0 )!1 38)2 
=  /  " "" 8 " " "((2  %
" 0 8  %"  ((  (  8 "   0
)!1 32 0! ((  (    6 G   0
)! 8 " (  %6" 8 0#("  
6  66"  % ( 1
" %"2 ()( 0! 4(  12 "8"    0
)! "  %"#  8 8 (  6 "1  
 0 )! "  %"#  8 8 (  6 "2 (
 "   08  (%   6 (   0
)!  8 " 60% " 66"(1


n
%/%9 (j)
λ2 @1A
j=1
"11 l = n + m − 1.

8 λ(j)
2 "  0 )!   6 %/ 6"
 6 !   "%"" "!"%  "  j 1 "2 l "  #%0
 "%"" "     "!"% 8  "#0"" ) 0
 9(2 m "  #%0  " #"(  %" ( n "  
#%0  "#0""   91    "!"% "   "!"%
8  "#0""   9( ( m "  #%0  "%"" "
#"(  %"  "%"" "!"%  "% "6 (#  "1
 %/%9 " 0( 0! %"  "!"%     "6  
" 08    0#""1
  
 
>"( 4 1 11   = #2    6""0 8!"  %"
 "%"" "!"%1 "  6"( 0!   (( " 
 = #1 32   6" 8 %%9  #%0  " 8
0   !2 Lc 2  " "!"%1 38)2 %/%9 λ2 2  %%9
 (%2 (%(G)2  " " 8 )  "# "  8  
 9  %"  %/%9  )!   "!"%1 " "
8 66"  8 )! %"#2  % %6( Ω̄  
"%"" "!"%1  8 " 0 "8   % ("  0
  
 

 

/6""(  %"   )#   9( 6 %/2 Q(G)2


(   % %6(   "%"" "!"% %6""  0#(!
   0 )!1
1

4 # 1
/%6 8    6""0 8!"  %" 
"!"%1

   8 ( 6 %/   6 G " ) 0!
Q(G) = C T DC @1A
( 8 Q(G) ∈ Cn×n1   8 "   9( 6 
(%"2  %/ " %%! (  "  (% %/
  +.N" # %/1  %/ " "!%%2 " # (
6") "%(= F G2 FG1 7  " 6!%  Q(G) 0
(( μ(G, x)1 7  "   6!% 0  6  )#"
 G1 
Qe = 0 @1 A
8 e "  # ) 11 e = [1, ..., 1]T 2   )# 8 8!"
0 91 4%  ?40#" % FG2  8"  8
 )#"  92  ( !   6 "  (1  
6 %/  :1 @1A " " #2  "  #"# )"1 38)2
 <?" )" "  9   )" %/ (
/""   %"1  %/ "  #:# "#    " 
:#" ( /""  ! %/ 8   %6/ #%0 FG1
) *

 +
 A  m × n  )  A ∈ Cm×n "  ,
      
 
   
  

  23    #, A† ,      )   !

01
AA† A = A @1 A
01
A† AA† = A† @1A
01
(AA† )∗ = AA† @1A
0#1
(A† A)∗ = A† A @1A
 <?" )" " " (  "  9( )"2
<?" 6"#()"   6"#()"1   "   
8$2  %6( 08 ! 8 ("  /6""( #" 
%"   <?" )"   6 %/ ( 
FG
Ωvw = Γvv + Γww − 2Γvw @1 A
2 Ωvw "  %"#( %6( 08 )" v ( w ( Γvw
" % vw   <?" )"2  " Q†vw = [Γvw ]1  %
 % " ) 0! F G
R̄ = 1̄( (Q† ) + ( (Q† )1̄T − 2Q† @1A
8 R̄ "  %/   %6("2 1̄ ("  #%
) 8 ! " ( ( (Q† ) ("  ) ""   ( 
"  Q† 1  "#%   %6(" "  (  "  +.
(/ FG2 Kf 2 8 )"  %"#   )  = #
   8$ ( " ) 0! F G
1
n n
Kf = rvw =
2
rvw . @1A
v<w v=1 w=1

 (/  0 /6""(   )#"   9( 6


%/1 4 /%62  " 0 "8(   %"   %/
1 −1
X = (Q +
n
J) @1A
  
 

 

)"  %6( 08 8 )" (  :1 @1 A 8
[xvw ] = Γvw FG ( J "  ":# %/  ( n 8  %" 
#!1  "8  +. (/  0 /6""(   )#" 
8 8 %"  )1
-(   +
 G  !  n #, n ≥ 2, 0 = λ1 , ..., λn 

  ! # "   ! #   (Q+ n1 J)  1 = λ1 , ..., λn

-(   + $  !     4    , "" λ2 > 0,


ukj     j   ! #  k, 

01 (Q + n1 J)−1 )


01  ! #   1, 1/λ2 , ..., 1/λn .
01  ! #   X       ! #   Q
0#1

1 1
n−1
Γvw =
n
+
λk
ukv ukw @1A
k=1

0#1


n
n−1
1
Γvv = 1 +
λk
@1 A
i=1 k=1

 6  " " #(  FG1  /6""  %6( 08 8
)"  %"   )#" (  )"2 :1 @1A2 :1 @1 A 
:1 @1 A )"

n
1
Ωvw =
λk
(ukv − ukw )2 @1 A
k=2

" "  " " " %"  !  ("   (
 0 /6""(  %"   )#" (  )"1  +."
(/  8 0 /6""( "
1
n n 1 n
Kf = rvw =
2
rvw = n
λk
. @1A
v<w v=1 w=1 k=2
      
 
   
  

 ( :#! " ()(  /%6  FG #" :1 @1 A1 ;
 8!  "8   +." (/  0 /6""(  %"
  )#"   9( 6 " )  F G1 <)2 
 08  % %6( Ω̄ (  +." (/  
(" " "
Kf = n2 Ω̄. @1A
?# :1 @1A ( :1 @1A   )"
1 1
n
Ω̄ =
n λk
@1A
k=2

32  "#( 0 (    0 )! )"   "
0#   "#%2 (   "  %" "#0  )# 
#"  %6"  0#(!   % %6(    8$1
2  8 0#(! " 66"( 2
1
nΩ̄ >
λ2
. @1 A
32 %/%9  "( "%"  )#   9(
6 8 %6"  8 0#(!   % ("   "%""
"!"%1   % %6( "  %"#  8 8 ( 
"%"" "!"% " ( %6""  0#(!    0 )!2
 8 " 60% " 66"(1


n
%%9 Ω̄(j) @1A
j=1
"11 l = n + m − 1.

8 Ω̄(j) " % %6(   "%"" "!"%  "6 j 1


"2 l "  #%0  "%"" "     "!"% 8 
"#0"" ) 0  9(2 m "  #%0  " #"(  %"
( n "   #%0  "#0""   91    "!"%
"   "!"% 8  "#0""   9( ( m "  #%0
 "%"" " #"(  %"  "%"" "!"%  "% "6
(#  "1  %%9 " 0( 0! %"  "!"%
    "6   " 08    0#""1
  
 

 

;6%9 ! #2 Φ2 0!    ) 8 "  ( "


8 "#%" #6    6 " (  0"# Φ   6 0! 4(
F G1 "6( 0! "2  60%  (# ( " ( )" 
 6   ":# "#   % %6( " %%9(2 " 
:1 @1A2 "  (  "  0"# %6( " @A
60%1

     
  
32  " "  " "8  %%9  % (" 8
%%9   """   "!"% #( (% # B1
 "8 "2  J 0  (% # )1  ) J %#" ""!
1T J = 0 "   #   8$ %#" 0 91 "2
""#%  (Ji ) = 02 (Jj ) = 0 ( Σij = )(Ji Jj )1 
(JJ T ) = Σ + (J)(J T ) @1A
8 Σ "  ) %/1 48  " )  F G2
 )   """ " ) 0!

(J T Q†J) = (Q† (JJ T )) = (Q†Σ) = n1 Kf = nΩ̄ @1A


 ( :#! ("   ) %/ " ) 0!  (!
%/2 I 2 8 "6("  (% # B (  
08 Jv ( Jw 1 '#  "2  :1 @1A  0 %#( 
  """ %%9 60%1 "2 "  % %6(2
Ω̄2  0 /6""(  %"   )#"2   0 )! 
" %6"  0#(    """ #( (% # B
( 

n
1 1
(J T Q†J) = nΩ̄ = λk
>
λ2
. @1A
k=2

 """ "  "   60% (#  "1 38)2


 """ "" 8 68 " "(   "%"" "!"%1
2  "  %"#    (" 08  "
(  (1
      
 
   
  

       


  

4   "!"%2   08 B( # ( (
6" " ) 0!

Qu = J. @1 A
32 u "  )   )  % #(   0#"2 J "
 )   #" B(   0#" ( Q "  (%
%/2    8("2  8 ( 6 %/   "!"%1 
(   +.N" # 8  (2  "#%   %" 
J %#" 0 91  "  =! %#  "#"  " :#
 (. 0!  " )1 38)2  (.  ( 6 "
8!" 8 (=(1 & "(  68 "!"%2  ( " #"#!
" "  #( ( ( "" (  ( 6  1 & "
" (2  (#( (% %/  0 "#( 0! %) 
"6( 8 ( #% % Q1 " 6# (% %/2
%! (( Y  68 "!"% #"2 "  " # ( "
)" "  8 (=(1  "6( 6 ) (
# ) " 0( 0! %)  #( ( %  )"1
7 " (#( )" 0 (( U ( I 1  ) I "#(  0
#"( 8  (/ %/1  " %#2    ""
 I " #"    #(( (1 5" " 2 
%  08 )  ( B( #"  ) 0!

Y U = I. @1 A
32 U "  #:# )  ! # ) I 1 5"  %/
Y2 8 Yvw−1 = [Z ]  %6( 08 8 0#""2 v ( w2  
vw
"%"" "!"% " ) 0!

Ωvw = Zvv + Zww − 2Zvw . @1A


4#%2  %6( 08  0#" v (  #(( ( "
) 0!

Ωvv = Zvv . @1A


  
 

 

 ! "   



 #$ 
" " 66""  8 " ":#   "%""
(1 4"2  =(  (   8  %" "#( 0 %(2
"( 4 1 1 1  = # 6"" 6   "%"" "!"%
8  0#""  6"( 0! )" (  "%"" " 
6"( 0! ( "1  #%0   = # 6""  8 (
 "%"" " ) 0  9(1 4  " ":#2 
" 6""0  "#  )#  8 %! "%"" " 8 )
0 (   ! (#  "1 "  /%62 8  ="
 "  9(  " "!"%2  " "%""    = #2 
#%0  "%"" " 8 0   ! " 91
4

A 1 B 2 C 3 D

4 # 1
  0#" "!"%1

 #%0  "%"" " 8 0 "   ! " 9 #
"%""   "  9(1 & " "%""  " 0
 9(2  #%0  "%""  8 0 "   ! " 1
  #%0  "%""  8 0 "   ! (# 
" "  @TTTAU1
3  " ""#%(   %" " "#   #%0 
"%"" " 8 (" 0   ! " %/%9( 8  "!"%
" %"(1 <)2  j = 1, ..., l (  "6   "2 
"  6 Gj 2 (  i = 1, ..., m (  (/     "#(
0 #"(  %"  "!"%1  !2 j1 %"   =" %" "
%(  "6 j 1   #%0  "%"" " 8 0 "  
!  8 0 /6""( "


m−1
NL = ji (ji+1 − ji ) + jm (l − jm + 1) @1 A
i=1

32 l "  #%0  "%"" "     "!"% (
NL "   #%0  "%"" "  0 "   !1 
      
 
   
  

" "  j 2   @  ( A " #"(  %"  "!"% "(
    8 )"1  m = 12  "#% " %( (

NL = j1 (l − j1 + 1). @1 A
 m > 1 8 0  "!"%  :#"1 2  ∇ =
1  %/%#%  NL 2  #( 0! ") ∇NL = 01  "
[ djd1 ... djdm ]T
8 %/%9  #%0  "%"" " 8 0   !2  8
%%9  600!   "!"% "6 (#  " #(
 "   "%"" "  :# # 61 38)2
 "# 8   8 8 "#0"   9 8 0#(
 "!"%2 ! 8  %" "#( 0 %(1 2  %%9
  % %6( " "  %"# 8 8 (  "!"% "
(  %%9 8 ) 8 8 "#0"   92  8
66/%  % " 66"(1
1 4( j1 , ..., jm 0! ") ∇NL = 01

1 (#  (  "# 


A  (  ("  (#  8 !1
0A  8 "!"% " (1
A  % %6(   8 "!"% " %%9(1
1 6 A # ji − 1 "  (#(1
1 5"  ji   8 )" "#   % %6( 
 8 "!"% " %%9(1
1 6 A2 A ( A # l = n + m − 1 ( "  (1
1 > 8 )" "#   % %6( " %%9( #
"!"% " 1
 2 %%#%  j1 " :#  2 "  $"  %%#% 
 "    %"( "!"%1  ":#  " "   
"#  ∇NL = 0 )" j1 < 32 j1 "#( 0 "   ( 8 "#"
 j2 , ..., jm  #(1
  
 

 

 %   &'  


 6 6"  6   #%0   "1 "  "  (
"1 4 1 1 "8"  6 8 8 "1 ;  "    %$(
08   )" (    "  "   61 32
 $   (  ("  (#  8 !   62  " 1
a)    %2  #%0  "   8 6  0 $(1
  08 ( " |E|2 )" |V | ( " |F | " $8 " 
#N" %# ( ""
|F | + |V | − |E| = 2. @1 A
 6  " %# " #(  F G1

4 # 1
 6 8 |F | = 22 |E| = 4 ( |V | = 4

 $   6 " (2  " 1 b)    %2 
 0 $(  λ2 > 0   8 (   #8 ( 6
%/   "!"%1 "(  "  E8 "% 6"(  4 1 @1A
" 66"(1
      
 
   
  

 E8 "%   >< %(1


1. Find J1,…,Jn

k=1

No |E’|=|V|+m-1

Yes
Jk-1
edges
introduced? Yes
No

Let V be a vector Calculate


k=k+1 with the edges left Calculate
resistance matrix
to introduce resistance matrix

i=1
Update G and |F| Update G by
by introducing the k=k+1 introducing the
Let G’ arise from
edge connecting edge connecting
G by introducing No
vertices with the vertices with the
edge Vi
highest highest
No impedance impedance
i=i+1

No λ2(G’)>0
Transmission
i=i+1 system
completed?
Yes

Yes
|F’|>|F|
i=i+1
Finish
No

Calculate mean
impedance

Store results in
vector W

Update G by
introducing the
edge associated
with the minimum
of vetor W

4 # 1
48 "%   >< %(
  
 

 

 ( .
 2.   (
 /.
" #% /%6 " 6"(  (%"  %(  
( "!"%1  " ""#%(   "  0$# (   #
0$"  6 (    6 " !1  :#6% #"" 
0$#6 68  # (  " ("0  "  "!"% " " "
6""0  (#  ":#"1 4#%2  " ""#%(  
/""   8 0$ " 60!     (  
 "!"%1  " 8  " % " (1  0$
" " ""#%(  8  "% 6(# " ("0(  66
 ""1  0$ # " 0 6 ( (  ( (
  ""#%(  0 #$8 (#   ( ( 6%1  "
" ""#%(   "#0"! 6   ( 68   "!"%
 " % 80 @)A "#"1  #   ( 
$L "%"" "!"% " 6"(  4 1 @1A1 '#   #$8 (
(" (  6""0!  " ""#( 6(  F G2 "# "
#(:#! ( "(( 2  #( /2 (:# (
(  (  " ""#%(  0 ("0  0#( 
8$ #( (% # B (  %/%9  /6( "
# 681 "  " ""#%(   "%"" " "  #
  λ = 0.0011   0 (    0 )!  
( "!"% " λ2 ≈ 0.26462  +." (/ " Kf ≈ 1471 + 12604i
(  % %6( " Ω̄ ≈ 4.076 + 34.92i1  " "!"% ( (
 )   " %6( @max R̄A ("  23 + 201i1  "#(
" 0 (  " 8 (" ( 8  /% )#"  
" )#1
 %6 66/% %( 8 0 6"(  8 ""2
m = 1 ( m = 21  "#( 0 (   m = 0  "!"% 8 
"#0""   9( "  %%#% (#   %"  %
 ("1 4 m = 12 l = 19 (  m = 22 l = 201 
 l "  #%0   9( "%"" "   "!"% 8 
"#0""   9(1
. 4( j1 , ..., jm 0! ") ∇NL = 01

4  " 8 m = 12 ") ∇N̄L = 0 )"


dNL
dj1
= l − 2j1 + 1 = 0 @1 A
  
      
   

8 "  "# j1 = 101 " "  =" "6   ><
 %1  %"   "!"% 8  $ 6 8 
#%0  "  9(1  #    $L "%"" "!"% 
" "  " "8(  4 1 1 1 4  " 8 m = 22 ") ∇N̄L = 0
)"  "!"%  :#"
dNL
dj1
= j2 − 2 = 0 @1 A
dNL
dj2
= j1 + l − 2j2 + 1 = 0 @1 A
8 "  "# j1 = 7 ( j2 = 14  " "1  %"
8  $ 6 8 "%""  j1 = 7 ( "%""
 j2 = 14 "  9(1  #    $L "%"" "!"% "
6"(  4 1 1 1 &  ><  % 6("2  8
"%"" "!"%" 66"   "1
. (#  (  "# 
A  (  ("  (#  8 !1
0A  8 "!"% " (1
A  % %6(   8 "!"% " %%9(1
  =" 2  ""  %  " ( "  9(
(  8 "#0" "  9(1 > b) ( c) %$" " 
 %  0$ " 0#" " "1  / "  9( 8
"#0"" "#   % %6( " %%9(1
. 6 A # ji − 1 "  (#(1
8 "#0""   9( # " 1 4 m = 1 "  =" 
" (  m = 2 " "   =" %" (    "(
%" 1
. 5"  ji   8 )" "#   % %6(  
8 "!"% " %%9(1
32  =" %" " %(1  %" " "#   %
%6( " %%9(1  #    %"  m = 1
" "  4 1V("= 1 4  " 8 m = 22  %" "
"8(  4 1 1 1
. 6 A2 A ( A # l = n + m − 1 ( "  (1 
 % #" #    "!"% " (1
  
 

 

!. > 8 )" "#   % %6( " %%9( #
"!"% " 1 32  %" #" #  "!"% "  "
 4 1 11
  
      
  

North

External

Central

Southwest

4 # 1
;#   (  $L "%"" "!"%

0 1
6 ! )#"   ( "!"%
$ 5 
λ2 1 
Kf  T  
Ω̄ 1 T 1
max(R̄)  T  
  
 

 

North

External

Central

Southwest

4 # 1 
;#   (  $L "%"" "!"% 
 9  "%"" " 8  " #"(  %"  "!"%

0 1
6 ! )#"   ( "!"%
$ 5 
λ2 1
Kf 1 T 1
Ω̄ 1 T 1 
max(R̄)  1 T  1
  
      
   

North

External

Central

Southwest

4 # 1
;#   (  $L "%"" "!"% 
 9  "%"" " 8  "  #"(  %"  "!"%

0 1
6 ! )#"   ( "!"%
$ 5 
λ2 1 
Kf   T   
Ω̄ 1  T  1 
max(R̄) 1 T 
  
 

 

  0 )! (  % %6( (" " 


#   9( "%"" " ( "#0"" " "8 08 
4 1 1  ( 4 1 1 1
1
m=1
0.9 m=2

0.8

0.7

0.6

λ2
0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
|E|

4 # 1 
  0 )! "  #   9(
"%"" " ( "#0""1

80
m=1
m=2
70

60

50
|Ω̄|

40

30

20

10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
|E|

4 # 1 
 % (" "  #   9( "%"" "
( "#0""1
 %  0 )! (  % %6( (" 
 " ":# " "8( 08  01 11  "   %"
 "!"% (#  " 8 ("  %  ("
08  0#""1 4 " 6# "2  0"# )#  
/6( " # 68 "  m = 2 "( 8
|Ω̄m=2 |
|Ω̄m=1 |
= 1.0723 @1 A
  
      
   
4
x 10
3
m=1
m=2
2.5

|Kf|
1.5

0.5

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
|E|

4 # 1 
 +"." (/ "  #   9( "%""
" ( "#0""1
1
m=1
m=2

0.99

0.98
R

0.97

0.96

0.95

0.94
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time unit

4 # 1 
 "#)) #"   " ":#"1

8 " 0# 7.2%   #( (% # B   m =
11

0 1
#%%!   "
 λ̄2 Ω̄
1  1  T1 
 1 1  T1 


  


 - ) 
& ( " (   6 ( 0$#2  ( 6=
"  ! (6(  %"! ( ()" "# " 
("2 "2 9" (  6#%6" F G1 "  /%62
! ( #"" ) %"! ( 68 8 "
"8(  8  %  %6# " 08  %"
" 1 48  6 ( 0$#2 "6! (# """ 8 8
%0 %6#2  ! ( #"" :# # 6
"%##"!1  "# "  "%  #"" :#66( 8 
6#%6"   ("1  (  )( #""! ( ( 
%6 #"  %% 6 "  %"#  6
%6#" (  "6( /6"# %1   %%2 
%6#" ( %  "  0( % %##"2 666
"(("2   ("   "1 "(  "  %6#" (
/6"#" %"2 ( 0! 66!  8" " "  " 6%(
# %" ( %  " " #(1 4 "2  %
6!  )( "  #(   8 8( "6( ) # 
   8( "6( 6)(" ((  ( #(  "
% 6!1 ?)#"!2  "%"  # )  %0
%6# 8" ""#%(1    "(( FG  (!% %0
%6# " "# "(  #" 2 8) " " !   %% 6
 #"1
  " "#2  ( ( 6$#6 "  8$8

  
 

 

6% 8 #( #" )(   "%1  


# ( ( 6$#6 ( ") "6"   6% "
("0(  F 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  2 G1 4  6# " 
>7?52 %6#" #6   >o ) 0 0")(  =( "#("
 "%"2 8  # " #"( 6% (%    7L
0#" " F G1
38)2   " 8$" )" "   " "%!
0=  8  "% )( 8 >7?5 #"  8
((  (#  8 %0 %6#" ."  "%
81  )(   "%   >7?5 "# #( ) 
" ( " (  (#  #  %   #"%1
)"  " 8 6  "!"% 6  ("0# ) 
#("( 8 ( "#( 0 (  0/ D  (  %%9
E(C3 ) ( E(CCR )  :1 @ 1 A1

 . 3.  


32  60% " %#( "
min (C) @1 A
8 ( " 6$( #6 ( 8 C "  "% "  
("0# 1  %92 

Θ=
1 "% # @1A
0  1
 /6( "   68 #    0 "%( 8

(C) = P (Θ = 1)(CH ) + P (Θ = 0)(CA + CI ) @1A


8 (CH ) "  "% " ""( 8  "%
#2  "2 /  #  %   #"% (  )"%
"   8 "%1 (CI ) "  "   68 #  
 "#% ( CA "  "  (( """2    2  
%6"1 CI    "  6    " C3 ( CH "
 6    " CCR  :1 @ 1A1  %  "% "
((2  "  ( " " (  8  #  "
  



  

CI "2 8)2 (#   "" #   (  600! 
 "% )( "   ( % """ "#"   (
  1 2 " "  " %%9 60%1  (  "%
(C)  8 " 8 6"  % %(   "%
( "% P (Θ) #"   %6#   "%1 5"
" 662 : @1A " %#(   "%  %6#
(6( 60%1

 . . '


     "%N" "( "# " ( 0!  )(
8( %6#1  " 6   "( "# #( "
 %" 6(   ( " (  "  ""61  "  #66
0#(!   %6# "   8( "2 (  ="
 %/%#% (   "%1  " %%! #"(  (%
 ( 6!   "%2 "  FG1
 %"  .  "% )( "  ( ""
   " "( "#1 7%"  " % (   >
" %%%"( 68 "%"  "# "(   (
> 1   FG (  "#%%9( "
•  > 6 %6#2
•  > ""6 %6#2 (
•  W %/%#% ( 1
 6 0) ""6 %6#"   >  "  "(
"$  ""   "( "# (  1 D"" (("  6
"$   ( "   !1
48   )  FG2  "% ""6
%6# " "%( 8
ΘHS = ΘA + ΔΘT O + ΔΘH , @1A
8 ΘA "  %0 %6#2 ΔΘT O "  6 " ) %02
( ΔΘH "  8( "6 "2  ) 0!  8 :#"1
 6 " ) %0 " ) 0!
ΔΘT O = (ΔΘT O,U − ΔΘT O,i ) ×

− 1
1 − exp τT O + ΔΘT O,i. @1A
  
 

 

 8( ""6 %6# " ) 6 %6# " )


0!
ΔΘH = (ΔΘH,U − ΔΘH,i ) ×

@1 A
t
1 − exp− τw + ΔΘH,i .

 "#  :1 1 ( 1 " 0( 0!  66/% %( 0!


1 1 D"% FG 8 "%"  %6#" ( #( )0
( ("1  /") ("6   ") %( " #(
 FG1 3  :#"  0E! "(1  6 %6# "
) %0 " (%( %  (. :#
d
Ploss = kΔΘT O + M
dt
ΔΘT O . @1 A
:1 @1 A #( 0 ")( #%! #"  #N" %(1 4#2
 8( ""6 %6# "2   ( L2 " ) 0! 

 1.6
L
ΔΘH = ΔΘH,f ull load ×
L 
. @1A


5" :1 @1A  % %("  <"  ( '$#"


:#="  ""     6# % 6(1 (  
<"  %(2  ) ""   (#  6(  % t " )
0!

1 t
@1A
ΘHS (t)−98
ζM = 2 6 dt.
t 0
(   '$#" %(2  ) ""   (#
 6(  % t " ) 0!
 t
dt
ζA = 100 A
+B
, @1 A
0 10 ΘHS (t)
8  6%" A ( B  "6=   !6  % #"(
  "( "#1
 FG  " %%((  66!  <"  %(  ""6
%6#" 8    08  > (  >1  %6#"
0)   >  #!   ""   ""1
     

 


      .


 %%(( " "6 %6# %"   > FG (
 > FG1 ;6 0) %" ""  "$  (
"#   ( 6""0 )#   " %  "#1
(   "#)! 6%( 0! >DX F G2  "  "  "
%   " "6 %6#1 38)2   %   >
" 0 " 8 (% "% #1 " " (#  
  6 0) " % #"" " = (%    "(
"#1
 :1 @1A " %#( "

 (C) = P ("#6 {θA } > 180o )  (CH ) +


P ("#6 {θA } ≤ 180o ) ( (CA ) +  (CI )) @1 A

32  60% " (  "  " "6 " @ 3 A
60%1

 # - 


!  '
   ( (  "(" (# "  0 ") %"
    ) 0  68 # 1   0 )   
 6$ ( (" /6( (# )! ( 2 (#  
   %" ( "" ()"!1  6$ ( ( "
(#   68 #  (6(       68 # 
(  %0 %6#1 32  >7?5 " /%6=( 8 "
#"(  ( 82 0#  %(  " 0 #"(   ("1
 8 %0 %6# (   68 #  #"  " =
%6# (6 ("2 8 8 # "  %" (1
4 8 ( %6#"2  $"  %    %"
" "2 #"  6 ( 6$1 " 6 ( 6$ #( #"  "8
"!"% "1
 ( 6=  >7?5 "  ""#%(  ) 
" "6   (! /62 " "  4 1 1 1 
  
 

 

%% /6""  " %( "


 
  
S (t) = SD + (SU − SD ) e−γ(t−t ) u t − t +
    
S U 1 − u t − t u t − T  . @1 A
" %% /6"" =" 66(  FG1 38) 
66/%   (! %( =" 66(  F G1 >#! 
/6"" " %%! #(   # F G "  %(  >7?51

7000

6000

5000
Load [kVA]

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time [h]

4 # 1
 (!( /6 %(   >7?5 ( 6=1

 4 1 1  ""6 %6# "(  "% " "


  (%" >7?5 %(   6# ( 6= ) 
4 1 1 1

"     .0   


  !
 (#   ( ( 6$ (6("  ") )0"2 "# "
%0 %6#2 "# )"2 :#6% #"(   2 (#
 # 2 #%0  "#%" .(   # 2 ( !6  (1
  
         

120

110

100
Hottest spot temperature [C]

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20
0 5 10 15 20
Time [h]

4 # 1
 ""6 %6# (# (%" >7?5
%( 1

 (  "%  (#   ( ( 6$   %( 
%(!%  %( " %6%(1
 666 %( 0"(  /6% %"#%" ) 0
6"(  FGM ) #   8" ()6(    N"  " " )(
#6  " (!2 (#  " 6#( #(  %(!% !1 
0" ( "  ("0  ( %6# ("2 "  # 
 %0 %6#1 8 (. %("  #"(  6" 
(  1
  %( """    "$ (  % %"" "6(
0!  % 8 6"( 0!  " H1 5" " "#6 
( %6# " ) 0!
K
T (t) = (T (0) − T0 ) e
− mC
p
t
+ T0 . @1 A
 (  #! 6(  ( %6# 8 68 "
"(2  (. %( 8" :#(  )  "0 =  
0")( %"#% (1   %( """    "$2
8 % 8"2 ( 8 % %"""1  ("0  (!%"2 8
#6( (. :#" ("0"  %6#2 ) 0!
  
 

 

dT1 1
dt
=
mCp
(P − K1 (T1 − T2 ) − K(t1 − T0 )) @1 A
(
dT2 K1 (T1 − T2 )
dt
=
(1 − r)mCp
. @1 A

26

Indoor temperature [oC] 24

22

20

18

16

14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time [h]

4 # 1
 9   ( %6#1  ( %6#
8" :1 @1 A  ="  #"1   #"2  #" " 68  
(  %6# "" (  :1 @1 A ( :1 @1 A1
?( % :1 @1 A2 @1 A ( @1 A  " 6""0  (%
 (#   ( ( 6$ "  #   %0 %6#1
3  :1 @1 A ( @1 A " 0 ")( #%!2 #"  )0
( %(1  FG  %%(  "0 6% )#" 
"%      6$ " #(1
5" " %(2  (#   ( ( 6$2 ti −Ti2 "  % 
$"  T2    ("( ( %6#2 T (0)1  9 
 %   ( ( 6$ " "  4 1 1  "% (. %0
%6#"1
 % #(   ( ( 6$  (. #"% !6" 
0 #(   # FG (   ) )  0 1 1
38)2  (2 SD 2 " %!  #   %0 %6#
  
         

6 T =−15
0
T =−7
0
5 T =1
0

4
ti’−Ti’

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Outage time [h]

4 # 1
%  ( ( 6$2 ti − Ti2 "  #   %0
%6# (  %   68 # 

FG %   (!1 3   (6("   ( "# 0
 ("#01 32  " "#(!2  6$   ( ( " "%(
    ( (   0#( 8   (   
("( ( %6#2 T (0)1  ( "# 6  #  (
  % % )# " ""#%(  0 %6# (6(  (
 6#  E#    %0 %6#1 " )"  
08 SD ( SU 8 " %6# (6(1

0 1
>7?5 "  %! 0 /6(   #!1 FG

 
36   0SU /SD 1
<B (#" 7""  1
"( 6#"  W (#"  1
50 "( 6#" "" 
 W 6    11
>%0 #0 ( # 11
# 11
 
 

 

$ -   /


 (  "%  600!   "% #2  )!
  ( "  0 6(1  )!   ( " "  
  %#! ( ( )( 0! "8"   #(  (
.   (% "1 ; 66  6 " ( 0)#
"  (#  "" %6 ("0( 0  ;"50$
@;5A 6""1  ;5 6"" "  "" 6"" ""!  8
"" (. :# @ 'A

dXt = −β (Xt − α) dt + σdBt , t ≥ 0. @1 A


3
{Bt , t ≥ 0} @1 A
("  8 %1  8 % " "%%"
(  "  & 6""1 ; 0 "   8
% "   6 8 $  "%  0 %"6 )
( %"6 )1  ;5 6"" " 0 #"(  ("02 
"2 %6# )# FG2 F G ( ( 0)  F G ( F G1
4#%2  ;5 6""2 " " 0 #"(  %(  E##" 
 "$ %$1 32  ;5 6"" " #"(  6#  600"
#   (1
 "#  :1 1 (=  ;5 6"" " ) 0! F G
 t
Xt = α + (X0 − α) e −βt
+σ e−β(t−α) dBt , @1 A
0

8 X0 "   ()   ( % " % ( 8 
  " $   Y ""1 <   Y   (  ""
(. :#"  #(  F G ( F G
  8 % "  (2   0 "  Xt "  (
8(" " % )# α2 8  β 2 8  % #(  ( 66
  (" 08  # )# ( α1  %( 6"( 
#"" :1 1  "  )#  α1 <)2  %(  "% β ( σ 
 ( #" " ( " 6"(  F G1
 9   ;5 6"" " "  4 1 1   6#
6% )#" σ = 0.082 β = 0.00022 (  )#  α " " 
4 1 1 1
 ""6 %6#   "" %( " "  4 1 1 1
     

7000

6000

5000
Load [kVA]

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time [h]

4 # 1
 9   "" ( 6= ("0( 0! 
;"50$ 6""   6% )#" SD = 30002 SU = 60002
( γ = 0.51

120

110

100
Hottest spot temperature [C]

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20
0 5 10 15 20
Time [h]

4 # 1
 ""6 %6# (# "" >7?5 %( 1
  
 

 

 %6"  4 1 1  %( 6"(  " 600! %


"#0 8  " ""!  6#  "" 0)   (
6=1

4 .    

 6( 2  /6""   (# %   >7?5 "#
(  68 #  " :#(1 2  8 (= " %(1
) *

 +      0tT OD 1    
           !       
#  5%     !   # "

5"  /6 (! %( ("0( 0! :1 @1 A  
(2 (   (=  ;'  0 /6""( "
 
1 τ SD
tT OD 
=t −
αn
ln
SU − SD
@1 A
8 tT OD "  % 6( %  %  68 # 2   %
8  ( ()" τ = 0.05 6 % "  % % )#1

5  2

  . 0 0
'# 6   "%2  "( "# 8 (
0#"   % """ ( 0!  (1 3  /"")   2
ζ
2 #"( 0!  >7?5 "# "  "1 3  /"")
  " :#     (#  >7?5 "#   
 # 6"( % "#0( 0!  /6(   (# %
6     # 6"( %2 ""
 (ζ
) =  (ζ ) −  (ζN ) . @1A
 (  :#!  "  "%   2   " "# "" 
 "   )"%   8 "% "#( 0 66  
/""    %6"( 0!  >7?5 "#1 /6!2  /6""
  /6( )#   "  "%   (
 (CA ) = C  (ζ
) . @1 A
 !       


   

 6  2

      
 )#  0!  "! "  """"( 0! 66/% 
":#"  #0!2 11  "" (#  68 #6"1 
"""" " ""2 (  " #"% #6 ""2 #"%
"#)!"   #"(1  %6   68 #6 8 0 (=(
0!  #6( )" (#   #61 '. !6"
 #"%" 6% (. !6"  )"1 2 #"%
#6 ""  """"( 0! "#)!"  (. #"% "" F G1
 #6 (# 8 " .  #"% #6
"1  #"% "#)!" #"% #6 ""   
(  (. #6 (#" F G1  "%  #"%
#6 ""   0! #6 (#  0! 8
""""% #"% (%  #"  0 #"(1 >#"% (% 
#"  0"(  %9( " (1 >%% %9 "
  # ! "#%62 6$ (   !  "#66(
F G1  4 1 1  #"% (%  #"  =) (. #"%
""  "81  %9  " 6$ ( (  #  
#"% (%  #" "  5I$&1  0  /6(
#"% #6 "  5  ( %( " ((  "%"
 /6( ""  ( (#   #61
 """" #"% #6 "   2 %6" #"%
(%  #" @(A  0 #"(1  %6" #"% (%  #
" (=( "    ( #6 "   %/#  #"%
""     ( " 0( 0! 8   #"% (% 
#   (. "" F G1  %6" " (%  #2
ccdfi 2  ("0# 8$ F G i " ) 0!

ccdfi = ηk cdfk @1A
k

 /"" (. 6(#  8  " #"  8 (1
4 /%62  8    #"% (%  #   "
#( 0 (%( 0!  "N"     # !
"#%6     "((1 >%6" #"% (% 
#"  #0 ( # 8$" 8 0 (. "  %/# 
#"% "" (. 08 #0 ( # "1 D)  "
" !  %   ( ( 6$#6   #%0  ("0#
8$"  #6 (#"   (. ("0# 8$"
  
 

 

0.8
Residential
0.7 Industrial
Commercial
Agricultural
0.6
Governmental

0.5

log(cdf)
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
log(TOutage)

4 # 1


      
   
 
 
 
        
  
 !

 !


 0(1 "(  " (#"  /6( #"% #6


"   " !   0 #( " F G


n
(CI (T1 , ..., Tn )) = ccdfi SDi . @1A
i=1

32 Ti ("  % 08  68 #  ( 8  i "
681

  2

  .  0
 "% " ""#%(     " "6 %6# /("
 o >    )#    ( " # /6(  % 11 ζA = 11
  )   "% # 2   "   #  0
"0( 0  8$ 8 (  #"%1  8$ 8 8
)  6  ( "% (  %$  )"%   8
%6 (  #"% " ""   68 # 1 2
 /6( "   )( 2  #   2 "  ""#%  0
     

"%(   )"% "   8 "% (  /6(
#"% #6 "   %  $"  6  "%1
3  "   "% )( " "%( 

(CH ) = Cinv + (CI (T1 , ..., Tn )) @1A


≈ Cinv + Coutage = Ctot .

 66/% " "0   % %  6 " )!  
%6   %  $"    (   61

 ,   .
 %("  )#  %6  ( ( 6$#6 " 0
66"( 0"(   " 6"(  " 61  =" %(
%"  :#!  %6  ) (   ( ( 6$#6
"#1 " "  " " 6 0)  "  )"
   %6#" (   (     "%1
 "( %( )#"  E#   ( " β 
600!  "% )(1  ( " " ! ."
 ( )! (   "  "  )"  " E#1 
( %( 6""  66  )#   "   68
#    "( 1 " %(  0 #"(  0  6%
( 6$#61   %(" #""  "" 6""  %(  (2
 %("  0"(   < > 661

 


      

 %(  "%  ("0#   "%   " " 81
1 %# (1
1 ># " "6 %6# % :1 @1A1
1 >#    (  :1 @1A ( @1 A1
1 6 A ( A N %"1
  
 

 

 (  
 
   

    β 
 E#  0 " "%( " 81
1  β 1
1 %# (1
1 >#    (  :1 @1A ( @1 A1
1 6 A ( A N %"1
1   % )#     %("1
 (  
      
)
 %( " "%  " (C)   ( 6$#6 " " 81
1  #  %  T11
1  %0 %6#2 T01
1  #  %  T21
1 ># ti − Ti  i = 1 ( i = 21
1 %# (1
1 ># " % :1 1 1
1 6 A  A N1 %"1
1  %0 %6#2 T02 ( 6 A N2 %"1

  ( .
 2.  .
 0
" #% /%6 " 6"(  #"  %6  ( )!
 "%   8  ;56"" " #"(  %(  )!
  (1  " ""#%(   68 #  8" % 6
("1  68 #  " 6 (2 (  " ""#%(   .
 >7?5 " "#0"1  6% )#"   "#(( "% 
  
     




  
)  0 1 FG1  "2  "% "  "(2  6"2
1 $L2 <L "%1  >7?5 " (=( 0!  6%
)#" "#%%9(  0 11  )#"   % 6%" 
A = −13.391 > ( B = 6972.8 FG1 % 6% )#"  #(
 FG1
0 1
 6% )#"   "#(( "% FG1
?% L#"
 ""   &
>66 ""   &
 ""    &
6 "  >
7L 66 "  1 >
3L 66 " 1 >
&1   ( "   6#("
&1  " ( = "   6#("
&1    6#("

0 1
 6% )#" "6!  >7?5 #"(   #%
/%61
?% L#"
SD 4 <L
SU 7 <L
γ 0.5 −1
Ti  "
ti  "
σ 1
β 1

 " %( #""  "" 6""  %(  (2  <
> "%# " #"(  "%  ("0#  "%   1
 < > "%# " 6%( 0! "%#  #%0  "
"6 %6# )#"1  =" )# %( " 66( 1
 "
  
 

 

1 %# (1
1 ># " "6 %6# % :1 @1A1
1 >#    (  :1 @1A ( @1 A1
1 6 A ( A N %"1
 " 6# " "#(!2   %6# )#" 
#(1   #%0    )#" " #( #" :1 @1A
( @1A %  %6# )#1 " "#"   "% 
   ("0#2 % 8  % )# (  )  0
"%(1  "%( ("0#"   8   %("  "8
 4 1 1 ( 11
500

450

400

350
Relative frequency

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Aging [%]

4 # 1
 "%( ("0#   "%   (
  '$#" %( "  "#   < > "%#1
 ")) #   <"  "% " )( 0!
%6  8 4 1 1 ( 11  " "))   ""  
"%"    ""     '$#" %(2 )  "%
( 6=1  6%"   ("0#  "8  0 11
" "   8  ("#""  F G1
 (%" %( " 0(  σ = 0 ( β → ∞1 
 E#   8 % " /#(( (    " 6#!
(%"! (%(1 4 " " "#(!  "#   "
:#  1 ( 12   <"  ( '$#" %("
"6)!2 " "  0 11
  
     




  
800

700

600
Relative frequency

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
Aging [%]

4 # 1
 "%( ("0#   "%   (
  <"  %( "  "#   < > "%#1

0 1
 )#"   "%( % )# (  "%(
"(( ()     %("1
∗ (ζi ) ST D∗ (ζi )
i = A 1  1 
i = M 1  1

0 1
 )#"   "%   #"  (%"
661
ζA ζM
1 1

 # "#(!    "  #   ( 6% β  


;5 6"" " "  4 1 1 1  β " ! .  (   6""2
 " "0  )"   E#  β    1  " "  
"%( % )#" (! /6! 8("  (%"  
)#"1  "( )# %( " 66( 1  "
1  β 1
1 %# (1
  
 

 

1 >#    (  :1 @1A ( @1 A1


1 6 A ( A N %"1
1   % )#     %("1
 < > "%# " )"  "%   ("0#
  %/%#% ""6 %6#2 " "  4 1 1 1 4% 
("0#   ""6 %6#  4 1 1  " 6""0 
(%  600!  /(  >2 "" P (sup {Θhs} > 180 >)1
 "#"  " 6# #% (%" "8  "
600! " "%(  1 W1
0.5
E*(ζ )
A
0.45 E*(ζ )
M

0.4

0.35

0.3
E ∗ (ζ)

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
β −3
x 10

4 # 1 
 "%( % )#    "  #   (
" β 1

 4 1 1   "%( 600!   %/%#% ""6


%6# /("  > " ("6!( "  #  β 1  " "8
 4 1 1    ( 6%   "" 6"" " !
."  /6(     "%1

 *  
)   '  
" #% /%6 (%""  % "6"  
)(( "% (#  ( ( 6$ #6 "#1  " ""#%(
  "  68 #  (   ! "( ( "  0 6$(
  
     




  
350

300

Relative frequency 250

200

150

100

50

0
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Maximum hottest spot temperature [C]

4 # 1
 ("0#   %/%#% "% ""6
%6# "  "#   < > "%#1

0.08

0.07

0.06
P ∗ (sup {ΘHS } > 180)

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0
0 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.01
β

4 # 1 
 "%( 600!   %/%#% ""6
%6# /("  > "  #  β 1

#6  8 (. " 0!  ("0# "!"% 6 @' ;A1 


"!"% " 6"(  4 1 1 
 "% (  8 " "  "% " 6)#"!2 
"(2  6"2 1 $L2 <L "%1  )"%
"   "% " ""#%( 0 Cinv = 0.5 <5 (  "  
"% # (#  )(  #   " "%(  Ctot = 1
<51  " #% ""#%(   %6""  #"% 
  
 

 
Area 1

Area 2

4 # 1 
" "!"% 8 8 ( 6" ( 0!  "(2 
6"2 1 $L2 <L "%

 8 "  $81  " #% /%62  8 " 
""#%(  ) ( 8" ( ( ""  ("0( 0! 
%(!% %( 6"(  " 1 1  "  #"0
 ""#%   ( %6# ""  %% (
)%" 8"  "% % (!% 8" "  "( (
   ( "  ""#%(  "%1 38)2  0) 
( (  (. (#"" " $8  )  (. ""
F G1 2  " ""#%(     (#""   ("0#
8$"1  %6"   (    6"(  0 1 1
0 1
0 "6!  %6" (   8 "
>#"% !6   
"(  
(#"!  
>%%  
 ##  
D)%"  
!6 )#" F G   #"% (%  #2 ccdfk 2  (.
#"% !6"  )  0 1 1
 )#"  0 1 ( 1 ( :1 @1A ( @1A )"  /6(
%6" #"% (%  # 8 " "6=   (  1
   #"% (%  #  %% " " =  
2  /%62  "( (1  0" (  % 62
SD 2 ""  ""#%(  0 %6# (6( (  8
 "% 6 " ("0(  FG1   ( "  ! 6"( 0!
  
     




  
0 1
0 "6!  %6" #"% (%  #
>#"% !6 %       
"(  1 1 1 1 
(#"! 1 1 1 1  1
>%% 1 1 1 1 1
 ## 1 1 1 1 1
D)%" 1 1 1 1 1

"( ( %%2     ( "  (1 32
 ( ""   "  )  0#( @"(2 %%2
)%   ##A "  %(( "
252 12
SDi =
49
− To
49
@1A
32  " ""#%(     0#( "    8 )"
  "#%6  ("0# 8$ ( 1 "  /%62
   (  % %   "#%6  0 ("0#
8$   o > " 0#  $L 8 " 8 08    
"%1 38)2    ( (  0 8$" 6$" #6 (
( "%##"! "   $L2 8 "   )(   "%1
 %6" #"% (%  #" "  #      
68 #    8 " "#((  6"(  4 1 1 1
4
x 10
3

Area 1
2.5
Area 2

2
ccdfi [EUR]

1.5

0.5

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Ti’ [h]

4 # 1 
>#"% (%  #   (  
  
 

 

 )!   ( "  ("0( 0!  ;5 6"" ( 
6%" "6!  )! "  " /%6 ""#%(  0 σ = 0.08
( β = 0.00005  0 "1  "% %(   6%"
σ ( β   ( %(( 0!  ;5 6"" " ("0(  F G1 
6%" "6!  ( %6# "" "  #
  %0 %6# (  #  %    "% "  FG
( )  0 11
0 1
0 "6!  %(!% %6"
?% L#
?  $&
 1 
%>6 1 CI+
+ 1 
+ 1
" 6%" 8 (%  /6( ( %6# (#
 68 #  (  (  1  ("( ( %6#
" "  0 T (0) = 20 o>1  6%" "6!  ( ( (! 
" γ U1 − 1 8 " #"(  FG ( F G1  " ""#%(   =" (
 0 6$ #6  T1 = 3 #"   ("#01  ( )#
%( " 66( 1  "
1  #  %  T11
1  %0 %6#2 T01
1  #  %  T21
1 ># ti − Ti  i = 1 ( i = 21
1 %# (1
1 ># " % :1 1 1
1 6 A  A N1 %"1
1  %0 %6#2 T02 ( 6 A N2 %"1
  
     




  
 4 1 1   /6( " "  #  8  "( (
 6$ #6  %2 T2 " 6"(1  #% /%6 "8" 
  6 )(   "%  %6# 08  ( "
" % "#660  " 6# "1  o>   
 "% %  %0 %6# "  8   "( (
"#( 0 6$ #6 8  ( ( 6$ %  " (!( .1 
" 6# "2  % 6%#% "  0# #"  
68 #6   #"   =" ( 6$1  (.
08   ""  "%   2 T2 1  0# #"2 
E#   %6# (.  0  ( "  " 
68 #6 "  %" %6 1
4
x 10
2.3

2.2

2.1

2 T0=−20
E(C)

T0=−5
1.9
T0=10

1.8

1.7

1.6
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time [h]

4 # 1 
/6( "% " "  #  %0
%6#" ( %  "( ( 6$ #61

 " "6 %6# " %6      


"% (  E#   %0 %6# (  % 
"( ( 6$ #6 " )"0  4 1 1 1   ( ("  6$( #6
"%##"!2  /6( %   " "6 %6# (#
;' " 0# 1 6    %0 %6#"   o> 
 %6#"   o> 8 "  " = E#     
 "%1
 % 4 1 1   "%"  0  %6# "( 08 
o > (  o >1 8 " %6# "(  " % "0 

)(  "%   " "#2 ( 0)  "(2


 " 1 " "( "#(  0 (  "  6% "(
  
 

 

130
T0=−20
T0=−5
120
T =10
0

110

E(ΘHS )
100

90

80

70
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Time [h]

4 # 1
 /6(  "6 %6# "  #   %
(" 08 ( 6$ #6   8 ("0# 8$"1

%6#  "% )( @ ; ; "(A1  ; ;


"( "  (  %(   6# 6%" ) 
" "#(!1 (!  ; ; "( )"  " ( "! %"# 
8  " % "0    )(  "% (#
 " 6(  %   ( " "#1 38)2 (!
 ; ; "(   6#  :#" $8(  %  ' ;
0#  #"%" ( 0) "# " )!2 " (%  #2
6$ ( ( ( ( 0)1 7 (T1 −T2 )∗ 0  % (" 08
 ( 6$ #6   8 " %%9 :1 @1 A1 8 o> (
 0 6$ #6 "%##"!1 38)   %0 %6# 0)
o >  "% 8 "  " = (  =" ( ( 6$ "
 (! 0  "( ( "#( 0 6$( #61


 
    

" #
  
 "" %(  )8   %% %%# "!"%" 8
 %6 (#  0$#2  !  #" 0# "  "!
 1  %6  0"2 ("  ( ("
("0# " 0   (1
 " %( 8 "(" %( 0$#6 68 ( 
6 ! 66" " 0 66"(1  %( " ()6(  )
 6% = #   "%"" "!"% (#  "
6""1  %(  0 #"(  0#(  "%"" "!"% "
(  )( (" ( 0"   "#0""1  ""
" " "8   08  6 "6#%2   0
)! (  % %6( 08  0#""   68 "!"%1
 #% (%"   66"( 66/% %( " "
0 6"(   (  "!"%1
<)2  6  "  %( 8  "" (.
:# " #"(  6#  "" 0)   ( (# >7?5
0 ()6(1  " " 0 "8   #% (%"
  "% )(   ( " "# #( 0
"% "0 08  %0 %6# "(1 "
"( " (  "  ; ; "(1 (!  "(
  6#  #( )  " ( "! %"#  8 
' ; "#( )(  "%   %6  "  %
 68 #   1   #% /%6 )2   6

  
     
 


)(   "(2  6"2 1 $L2 <L "% "


"0 "(  6%" (  %"   %(" #"(
 " "#(!1  #% /%6 " "8"  %6   %0
%6#   /6(  "6 %6#   "% (#
 %  ("#01  " 6# "#(!2   6 )( (#
"%##"! ( ( 6$#6 "#(    6   /6( 
"6 %6#   %0 %6#   o>    %0
%6#  o > (#  %  ("#01

" 3   7!
'#   %6/! 8 ()6 " ":#"  
"%"" (2 "% "%6= ) 0 %(1 " #(2
•  6 ! "  :# %6 ) #   % "6( (
(   6 ! %  0 (.1
•  600!   ""   "%""  " " (# 
"1
•  %( #""  6 ! 66"1

'#   "#2  % "6(   6 ! 8  0 
"%1 32  8#( 0  "  #( "% #!  " %
 (  %%   "#1
 600!  "  "%""  82  /%62 (6( 
 # (   6# %61 '#  "2 
8#( 600!  0    (   %61 38)2  %%9
 #  "2  8#( 0 ("0  6$ #6 ( " " " 6""02 (
  6 " "   %" " 6""01 ;6 "  
%"   "!"% 8    "  # = 8 %6"  "$1
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  "#1 8( " " # 68 (  "% ("1
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(  (  6  # 681 38 "#( " 0 $
 "(J
4  0$ #6 68 60%  "%"  0  "  )" 
 %6   " (     ## "" % % 6"1
 8#( 0  "  )"    " %! "0  )"
  
 
 

  " 8  0!    "#0"2 0" ")


" ( "%1      % 6 ") " 
% "6 )1   % ! "#  " 
0 "(( " 0"  8"1
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6 (. (" ( 0! ( 6"1 32 ! "(
( " 0 $  "( 0# " ( 6="  /%6
(#""   %61   "  "  ()6 
%(" 8 %%9"  "% %6  68 # 1
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()6 ( " 6"1
 
  
 8  " 0 6#0(     >
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.
  ). # 3      /.
)  .
41 (",% ( 71 ,(2 ! "#   !2 $%2 8(

*

/&   #       (  (    (  
      ( 
+ 0   # 


 
(  1
  
       0 ( 

( # &  (  
  + 2
 


 (  
   0   # 
 (     0
#

        
+ -(     
   
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     0 

 3
 + 0
(  

 & 
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(  
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#
  # (
 
   
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##
&  (  
 
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(   #

 
(   
    
    + -(
 #    4 "# 
#
 
 
0 (
  0
  # 0
#       
 
 +


     

 
 

7  ( /") 0$#"   )"  )  #  %6 (
#" ") """   "!1 ) #  %# . " $ 
)( % ! # % %  %1  " 6""  
0$# "  %6/ ( % "#% "$1  %  $"  "
 "!"% "  "   0! 0$ #6   "#0""
 %(1    0! 0$#6 #" #  0!  %
 " " (  # 0$" "  0 "8( %#!1 
%# 6  # 0$" " %# % % "#%  
%  ( 8  /(  #  %1   0$#6
%  "#0"" " " # (#    ."1    0!
0$ #6 #" #  ") "#0""  %  0  60% 8 
)0!  6" 8    $8(   8  /#  %#
"81  "   "  ("0  # "#  ( 
 0$#6 68   "#0"" (  "#" )0  %#
6  "8"1  " % (  " ":#
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#  %1   " % "     "  "$  "%
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#6 68 8 8 (  )!  " %1  %  " 66
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 "##   68 "!"% (  " 6 " %(( #"
6 ! " )1  L ("0"  < > "%#1 
" L #""  )1


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> 08  % 8$ ( "#08$" #%!1 " " !
" $8 "   6 " ! F G1 " ()  "   "#"  
> " 8 (=(1  (. " ! "  6 ! "( >N"2 "
" ! " $8 " ( 6 " ! FG ( F G1  " !
#"(  "   6 " !1  " " ""#%(     0
! #   > 8 6(1  % %%# 8 
"#0""  8 (6((    0$ #6 681   "#((
0$#  ="   6 "6"0   " "  ( "
   ))8   "# ( ((  6%  0$ "  
68 "!"%1  " "0  ""#%   % 08  0$#
(  ("  6%  0$ " " "" "  0$# "
#:# ( (. 6" ) (. /6 ( 0!  $
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"  (  0$ "   =" 1  %  $"  /#
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" ( %#!1 &  0$ " " /#(   =" 2
( "  0 )    "0 "!"%  #  "
6"" 1 " " ( 0! "  # 0$   "#08$  
(  0!   "(  "#% 681  %  $" 
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 0 "" " " " ( %#!1   "" %" 
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 61  /6  8 "   6 "2 "  
"" )01  600! ("! #  %" 8  &0#
("0#  (6("   6 " %(( "
ki t −( t )ki
fTi = (
λi (eo ) λi (eo )
)ki −1 e λi (eo ) @1 A

8 eo 6""  /6   6 ( " ""#%(  0


     

&0# ("0#( 8  " 6% " "  (


λi (e0 ) = λ0i eo @1A
8 λ0 "  % )#  /6( %1  %  
6" 6"" "
TP = T1 (e0 ) + T2 (e0 ) + T3 (e0 ) @1A
8 T1 "  "" %   6    ))8  
"#2 T2 "  "" %  (( "   ="  (
T3 "  "" %  "09  =" ( (1

 '    



&  =" ( " (   0$ " # ( ( " )
 "   "   "!"%  0 "(1 " " ( 0!
 (" 0! 6 >N"2 "09 0!  (  
(" ( 0! %  8 (1  E8  ("0 
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(   (  6 >N" 8(" " (2    E8 1
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 (   8 (2 >   E8 2 " " ( 0! 6
>N" 8("  "#08$1   "  0$#6 68   "#08$
(  %    >N" "  6""0 (  %# "# 
  " ((2  (    E8 1  " "6 "  %
6(# ( "#%62 '2 0 "   8 (  1 8
 (. "6" 8 0 ("0(  (1
    ' 
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6 " (6((   61  " 6 "  " 66
%(( "  #% (% 6"" 8  6 "  "%
600!1  % (( ("6 " )   / "1 
(" ( /# %  " ( "  > " ""#%( 
(6(   61  /6( ( "$( 6  $ :#$
("" 8  ) ( #"$( 6 (" % %  $ 


("1 " "" % " (( TA ( " 600! ("!
# " ) 0! :# 1

+ ,   
  /"" 0$#6 68   "#0"  "  >N"  
"#0"  0 % (1   0$#6 68   "#0"
" # #  % "  0 " #   %# "#  >N"1

     ')


&  8 ( " (2 ( "  0 )  )( ) ) 1
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"#08$ ( "$  (1  6   "#08$ "  "
  8("  % 8$ 0! 6 >N"1  %  $" 
=( (   "#0 6   "#08$ (  /# %
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"#08$ (6("   6 (  :# 1 " ""
% " (( TC 1   "   0$ #6 68   "#0" 
%# "#   > "  0 /#(1

  
 
    

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"#%61  6 "  =( (   "#0 6(# ( "$
  6!   8 (1  %  $"  =(  "#0
6(# (  %$   % 8  6(# " (6((  
6 (  :# 1 " "" % " (( TD 1

(    
  0$ #6 68 " # #  % "  0 "   %# 6
 >N"   "#0"1  %  $"  =(  % (  % 
$"   %    "#0" ( /#  %# 6
 >N" " ""#%(  0 "" "  )0!  6" 8 
  /62 H (  (   ("  #$81 
%  $"   %  /#  %# "#  >N" " (( TE 1
     
Pre restoration
Tp

A: Connect
to a new
node

B: Remote E: Manual
No
control possible? closure

Yes No

C: Connect
to a
subnetwork

B: Remote E: Manual
No
control possible? closure

D: Matching
Yes production and
consumption

No
Main network
restored?

Yes

Subnetwork
restored?

Yes

Restoration
complete

4 # 1
 % " 6""

- 
') .
  % 8$ "    6 "  (  "%  
)  1

 / ') .


  % 8$ "   6 " B#"  #  %
6(# 8 ( #  "#08$"   "!"%  (1
 % " %2 TM 2 "  "#%   " ( 


"  "!"%2  TM (TA , TC , TD , TE )1   " % "


) 0!
TRT = TP + TM @1A

9   /. 


    0 0 
. 2
 68 "!"% """  "#0"" (    ( 
"#0"  ) ") "   "#0""   %
8$ " = # 1 1  8!  ("0  "##   68 "!"%
"  #"  (  ( %/1 4  6#( !  6 ! "
FG1  "##   68 "!"% "  #   "#"  
> #" 6 ! " ) 0!
A = (AT0 C)T @1A
8 A0 "  (  ( %/ 6"  # "!"% ( C " 
(  %/ 6"  "#"   >N"2 8  (" "
( (  8 8 ("  ("(1  "#0" 8 "
 (   "( ( " " 68 %   68 "#1
 8!  ("0 8  "#0" "   8  % ( 
 ( #"  0$ #6 68  0 /6""( 0!
B = (AT A)n @1 A
8 % wij   B %/ "   9 %  ( i (
( j "  th (   ""1   0$ " # " (
 ( i  (" j 8  9 %   8 ) Vi %  B
%/  #  0$#6 681 7"   0 #"(   9
(" 8  =" (    "( 8$ " #( 0!
D = (A0 − A)ViT @1 A
8    9 %"   ) ' 6"" " 8 
=" (    "( "!"%1  )  " (#( 
("0  600!  "  $1  %"  )  " ) 0!

1 Dk > 0
Ek =
0 Dk = 0
@1A
     

(  600!  "  "  $ " ) 0!


Ek
P (X = k) =

M
@1A
Ek
k=1

8 M "   #%0  "  " 081  " 8 
=" (    "( "!"% "  ""#%(  0 :#
%61
7

1
9

10

5 6

11 12

4 # 1
 6   8$ 8  ( 6""  "#0"
(   6"  "%"" 1 (  6""  %
8$ ( (   6"" "#0""  "#08$ )

9 ' #  .  


 < > "%# 8 0 #"(  =(  (" 600! %""
#  (.  ("1  < > "%# "


6%( (  = # 11   = # 1 "    #%0
 "%#" 6%(   "1  " 6"" 8 0
6%(   "!"% "8  = # 1 1  "!"% " " "  "
"% 0# " " ") " 6"1  (  ( %/ A0
" ) 0!  %/ 8  #%" (  8" 8  8 6" 
  8 ("1  "6 6%   &0# ("0#"
 " " "#(! " ""#%(  0 2 
ki = 4 @1 A

Set nominal
values

Initial condition

Pre restoration
process

Main restoration No
process

Store total
restoration time

n<N?

Yes

Monte Carlo
complete

4 # 1
 " #6 "##   < > "%#1

 (. "" 8 0 "%#(1 ; 8   0$ #6 %
  % ( "#0 8$ "" ( " %  %# "# 
>N"2  " 8 "  0! 0$ #6 %   % ( "#0
8$ "" ( 8 " %  %# "#  >N" ( 
" " 8 "  0$#6 %   "#0"" (  %  
     

%# "#1  % " 6%"   &0# ("0#


 ""#%(  0
λe0 U
λ01 U 
λ02 U
λ03 U 
λ0A U
λ0B U
λ0C U
λ0D U

8 λe0 "  " 6%   /6 "  
62 λ01 2 λ02 ( λ03   % " 6%   %
T1 2 T2 ( T3   66""2 λ0A "  % " 6%  
%  "  " 62 λ0B "  % " 6%  
%  /#  % 2 λ0C "  % " 6%  
%    "#08$ ( λ0D "  % " 6%  
%  %  ( "#%61  < > "%# "
6%(   "  =(  600! ("! #2  /6(
" % (  )1

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.1
f(x)

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Time [min]

4 # 1
 &0# ("0#   %  6 ("  
 ))8   "#   "#(( 0$#1


 /( 
 " "  "    0$ #6 %   % ( "#0 8$
"" ( " %  %# "#  >N"1  6%"  "
 " "  0
 6% L# F%G
λM 
λBM 
λBS 
8 λM "  " 6%   %  " % (" 
  "#0" ( /#  %# "#  >N"2 λBM "  "
6%   0$ #6 %   % 8$ " ( λBS " 
" 6%   0$ #6 %   "#08$ "1
+ /( 
 " "  "  "  0$ #6 %   % ( "#0 8$
"" ( " %  %# "#  >N"1  6%"  "
 " "  0
 6% L# F%G
λM 
λBM 
λBS 
 /( 
 " "  "  "  0$ #6 %   % ( "#0 8$
"" (  %  %# "#  >N"1  6%"  "
 " "  0
 6% L# F%G
λM 
λBM 
λBS 
 (" 600! %"" # fRT   " % " #(
%  < > "%#    (. "" ( " "8( 
= # 11  /6( % (  ) #( %  < >
"%# " "8 08
     

>" E(X) V (X)


1 1 
 1 1 
 1 1
>"  ( "  )"#9  %6  8 "  " %
   "#0"   %# "#1 ) #  "  ( "
 "  "% 0$ #6 %   "!"%  )   "
% " )! (.1 >" " "8(  ) "#H 0$ #6 %  
" 6"" 8  8 600!  " 0!  % 
>N"1  6   ("   < > "%#  " 0
(   "( 8$ 8  %# "#  >N" " "8
081
>" ?   (" ( %#!
1
 1
 1
 6   (" ( 8  %# 6  >N" 
"  8  "  ( " 1  " %"  ("  )!
"  ( 8  %   >N" ( % 
#  )!  )"1 >"  ( "  )   0$ #6
68   "!"% (  " % " ! (6("  8 "
 " %   ( /#  %# 6  >N"1
4 # 1 "8"  600! %"" #   " %1
>"  ( "  "8"  %6  %  #  
" % 8  ("   "!"% " "#H 0$ #6 681

9 #
  
 " 66  "" %(  =(  (" 600! %""
#   " % 8 (.  (   68
"!"% " 0 ()6(1  %( " #"(  "#(!  %6  #
 %   68 "!"% " %1  %6  # 
%   68 "!"% " % (6("    0$
#6 68   "!"%  %0 8 8 "  " %
  ( /#  %# 61  " %( "#H 0$

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.1
fRT

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Restoration time [h]

4 # 1
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%   ""1 >" " %$( 8 /2 " 8 " %$( 8 "
( "  " %$( 8 ":#"1

#6 68  (#  " % 8 ") #"1 %" 8
0!  6%  :#$ %# "#  >N" 0%" %6 8
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