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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.25 Monday, 23 – 29 April 2018 Pgs.20 Rs.20
BAZAR.COM
Broader markets up
Broader markets outperform and the benchmarks bounce back despite the crude oil prices firming up. Last week
belonged to the metals, tech and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) stocks, which were on the upside while oil
marketing stocks were substantially weak. What kept the market going for over nine consecutive days may have
surprised a lot of investors and punters. But the irrational nature of the market is at its best. The last ten-day rise and
going against the (popular) consensus is the intricate nature of this market and it could not have unfolded in any way
better than this.
The rising crude oil prices though a major negative trigger is countered well by the predictions of a nearly normal
monsoon, which will boost the agriculture sector. And with the cash flows increasing immensely in rural India, the
multiplier impact of consumer spending shall fuel the country’s growth story. Not only will the demand rise but the agro
output will keep the consumer price index under check. A double booster, you may call it.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its initial stage forecast predicts a ‘normal’ South–West Monsoon (June–
September 2018), which will put a lot of agro based, auto and FMCG stocks on the investor’s radar. Satisfactory
quantitative rainfall coupled with a rural–engineered budget implementation will make the economic rise look so easy.
A direct obvious impact can be seen on agro-based, autos and FMCG sectors but other sectors that stand to gain with the
booming rural segment are banks, NBFCs and micro-finance companies. It is observed that both in the Sensex and the
Nifty, the auto, FMCG and finance sector companies have a large weightage (over 50%) and any positive trigger here
shall give wings to the benchmarks and the overall sentiment. Under the current government, the affordable housing
sector, too, will stand to gain immensely with a robust harvest. Infra spending and power boost by the government in
view of the forthcoming elections will add fuel to the ‘teji’ fire. All this suits the ruling party very well in the wake of the
ensuing elections and a smart government may not lose this advantage and may even prep one the general elections in
the wake of this optimism.
The pre-monsoon mood will be set by which way Karnataka goes. The picture will be clear by mid-May. If the NDA
trounces Congress, the average monsoon may provide the extra buttering on BJP’s bread. If the Congress retains
Karnataka, the NDA will have to get into a huddle to strategise on the armory at hand.
What becomes very evident is that in the last four years, the NDA has set in new systems and new ways of approaching
growth and delivering it. These systems are so different from those adopted by the UPA all these years. ‘Na khaoonga na
khaane doonga’ is not an empty slogan. ‘Sab ka saath sab ka vikaas’ too shall echo even if the NDA is sidelined. This
change of trajectory of economic growth is a great gift of PM Modi to the country and which shall keep the country on
high growth path. No wonder, the Sensex and Nifty are on a consecutive rise although small but solid. The 1:1 bonus
from TCS is a point to counter thought.
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
PIDILITE INDUSTRIES 1063 1030 1039 1054 1078 1117 72.2 996 16-03-18
NESTLE INDIA 9165 8669 8807.3 9026.7 9384.3 9961.3 69 8603.8 23-03-18
TECH MAHINDRA 700.85 654.7 668.4 687.1 719.6 770.9 68.5 656.5 13-04-18
INTERGLOBE AVIATION 1503.90 1450 1462.6 1491.3 1532.6 1602.7 68.1 1427 28-03-18
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES 5327 5191 5207.7 5310.3 5429.7 5651.7 67.6 5169.5 28-03-18
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS
Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & S2- Support
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM
CORPORATION 298.85 245.9 285.2 310.7 324.4 336.3 26.12 332.67 13-04-18
BHARAT PETROLEUM
CORPORATION 371.70 311.9 356.3 385.4 400.7 414.4 29.34 409.80 13-04-18
POWER FINANCE
CORPORATION 85.35 81.2 84.3 86.3 87.3 88.3 29.58 86.86 20-04-18
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 93.60 81.3 90.3 96.1 99.3 101.8 30.06 98.07 20-04-18
IDEA CELLULER 70.80 65.4 69.3 71.7 73.2 74.1 30.68 73.41 09-03-18
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
EXIT LIST
Note: R1- (Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close R1 R2 R3 SA S1 Monthly RS
BUY LIST
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & WB- Weak Below
Scrip Last Close S3 S2 S1 WB R1 Monthly RS
Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
SALASAR TECHNO ENGINEERING 540642 355.45 345 361.55 335 378 404.5 77.72
INFINITE COMPUTER SOLUTIONS
(INDIA) 533154 496.70 491 506.05 486.20 518.3 538.2 76.23
SASKEN TECHNOLOGIES 532663 753.50 741.75 768.05 728.75 792.3 831.6 68.38
TOWER TALK
Indiabulls Housing Finance shows signs of great strength. Something seems to be cooking. A hefty dividend and/or
a bonus is a distinct possibility. Buy.
UCO Bank looks weak on reports that CBI has filed a case against the former bank Chairman Arun Kaul relating to
an alleged Rs.621 crore bank loan fraud case.
Bajaj Electricals has received orders worth Rs.3578 crore for rural and urban electrification projects in U.P. A big
positive. Buy.
Sterlite Technologies plans to raise funds for expansion through additional securities. This move may trigger its
share price.
Global technology leader Infosys fell sharply as its results were below market expectations. Certain analysts,
however, are still bullish on this counter. Buy.
Lupin has received tentative USFDA approval for its generic AndroGel. A big positive. Buy.
Hotel Leelaventure has defaulted in the payment of debenture interest of Rs.10.5 crore to LIC. Considering that this
is a turnaround case, investors with a risk appetite may enter at the current beaten down share price.
Dabur India is being upgraded by rating agencies on the back of rising profitability and moreover, on forecasts of a
normal monsoon. The stock may rise by 25% in 3 months.
Fortis Heallthcare is in the limelight again now that a Chinese entity Fosun Healthcare has also jumped into the
fray. If the war heats up, minor shareholders may stand to gain. Any takers?
Future Enterprises has raised Rs.300 crore through NCDs on private placement basis to augment its working
capital needs. Its business seems to be growing. A good long-term buy.
Electrosteel Steels is finally in the Vedanta fold. It may be prudent to hold the stock for some time.
Indian Hotels Company, which runs the famous Taj group of luxury hotels, has now forayed into Saudi Arabia. A
good long-term buy.
Blue Star has set a target of Rs.1700 crore from its room air conditioner business. A good buy.
Tata Steel has raised $1.9 bn of loans to refinance the high cost debt of its Singapore units. The company recently
reported its highest ever domestic EBITDA on the back of robust consumption. An excellent buy.
Marico is now entering the fitness and wellness industry with big ticket investments. Buy.
Schaeffler India, formerly Fag Bearings, reported excellent results. A good stock to buy.
After approval by the Supreme Court, Reliance Communications will sell assets worth Rs.25000 crore to pay off its
debts. It is doubtful what the residual reserves will be. Stay away.
Indian Oil Corporation has bought Shells’ 17% stake in Mukhaizna oil field (Oman) for Rs.2137 crore. A big
positive for IOC. Buy.
The revision in natural gas price by the government may boost Oil and Natural Gas Corporation revenues by
~Rs.1500 crore. A positive for the company.
Varun Beverages is setting up a greenfield product facility for Tropicana fruit juices and other products. A good
long-term buy.
BEST BET
STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta
STOCK SCAN
STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan
MARKET REVIEW
MARKET OUTLOOK
FIFTY: FIFTY
By Rupesh Daga
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
BULL’S EYE
Ltd Super Crop Safe recommended at Rs.33 last week, zoomed to Rs.36.25
appreciating 10% in just 1 week.
(BSE Code: 524818) (CMP: Rs.98)
Safari Industries (India) recommended at Rs.536.65 on 19 February 2018,
(FV: Rs.10) zoomed to Rs.760 last week appreciating 42% in 2 months.
By Pratit Nayan Patel
KEC International recommended at Rs.313.85 on 4 December 2017, zoomed
Company Background: Incorporated to Rs.442.60 last week appreciating 41% in 4.5 months.
in 1989, Dynamic Industries Ltd (DIL) Firstsource Solutions recommended at Rs.42.60 on 27 November 2017,
manufactures chemicals and its core zoomed to Rs.60.50 last week appreciating 42% within 5 months.
products are Dyes and Dye Stuff. It
IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals recommended at Rs.63.40 on 30 October
exports to Germany, USA, South Korea, 2017, zoomed to Rs.116.60 last week appreciating 84% in 5.5 months.
China, Taiwan, Italy, Turkey,
Switzerland, Russia, Pakistan, Spain, Brazil and Argentina. Exports constitute a significant portion of total sales. It has a
well-established distribution network in various countries supported by its strong marketing force. It plans to penetrate
further into the global market through customer retention and business development in the regions that have not been
tapped.
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Diamines & Chemicals Ltd Sadhana Nitrochem recommended at Rs.70
on 4 September 2017, zoomed to Rs.269 last
(BSE Code: 500120) (CMP: Rs.96.50) (FV: Rs.10) week appreciating 284% in 7.5 months.
Incorporated in 1976, Vadodara-based Diamines & Chemicals Ltd
(DCL) manufactures and sells organic chemical compounds. It is the only company in India that manufactures a range of
Ethyleneamines. It operates through two segments - Speciality Chemicals and Power Generation. Its products include
piperazine anhydrous, piperazine, ethylenediamine, diethylenetriamine, amino ethyl piperazine, polyamines mix,
monoethanolamine, triethylenediamine, bitumen emulsifiers, acid corrosion inhibitors, anti-stripping agents, ethylene
diamine acid phosphate, rust inhibitors, triethylene tetramine and tetraethylene pentamine. Its products are used in
pharmaceuticals, agro-chemicals, resins and coatings, water treatment chemicals, oilfield chemicals, etc. It is also
engaged in the development of piperazine derivatives and other products. In addition, it generates electric power
through non-conventional sources (windmill).
DCL has an equity capital of Rs.9.78 crore supported by
reserves of Rs.21.7 crore. The promoters hold 65.2% of Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
the equity capital, which leaves 34.8% stake with the Particulars Q3FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17
investing public. Sales 9.64 8.27 29.79 28.02 34.81
During Q3FY18, DCL posted 158% higher PAT of PBT 2.56 0.90 5.73 3.74 5.79
Rs.1.78 crore on higher sales of Rs.9.64 crore fetching Tax 0.78 0.21 0.91 0.93 1.51
an EPS of Rs.1.82. During 9MFY18, PAT soared 71% to PAT 1.78 0.69 4.82 2.81 4.28
Rs.4.82 crore on higher sales of Rs.29.79 crore fetching EPS (Rs.) 1.82 0.71 4.93 2.87 4.37
an EPS of Rs.4.93. Its 9MFY18 PAT is 13% higher than
the PAT reported for FY17.
DCL is a part of the investor-friendly DSP group of companies. However, it could not pay dividends for FY14, FY15 and
FY16 due to its poor performance. But it paid 15% dividend for FY17 on the back of its excellent performance.
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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