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Equity Research INDIA

September 4, 2018
BSE Sensex: 38158
Yes Bank BUY
ICICI Securities Limited Maintained
is the author and
distributor of this report CEO reappointment: Dealing with the uncertainty Rs334
Reason for report: Company update
We examine potential reasons for RBI’s recent communication to YES Bank
Banking approving Mr Rana Kapoor’s continuation as MD&CEO until further notice – and
put it in context of past and recent events – in an attempt to provide investors a
framework to understand the issues better.
Target price Rs503
We divide our discussion into 2 buckets – i) potential reasons linked to his position as
MD&CEO and ii) those linked to the Bank’s performance
Shareholding pattern
Dec Mar Jun
 MD&CEO’s role on the Board: Could RBI be re-examining certain clauses in the
'17 '18 '18 Articles of Association of YES Bank including those pertaining to MD&CEO not
Promoters 20.0 20.0 20.0
Institutional
being subject to retirement by rotation (article 127 (f)) or similar clauses included in
investors 67.1 67.4 67.7 the judgement of the Mumbai High Court in 2015? If so, both the above documents
MFs and UTI 11.4 10.4 11.8
FIs / Banks 0.2 0.2 0.2 are amply clear on the non-retiring status which RBI may simply be in process of re-
Insurance Cos. 12.3 14.2 13.2 verifying.
FIIs 43.2 42.6 42.5
Others 12.9 12.6 12.3  YES Bank’s performance vs peers: Could RBI be taking a look at past issues of
Source: CMIE
divergence that were reported for FY16 and FY17 as also the overall financial
performance of YES Bank? If it is the former, RBI’s retrospective audits have only
demonstrated that the eventual impact on both balance sheet and P&L was not as
Price chart
large as reported initially. The addition to NPLs was a fraction (19% and 16% for
450
FY16, 17) of the gross amount reported as the remainder was either repaid, sold
400
350 down or upgraded to standard subsequent to the year-end. If RBI is looking at YES’
300 overall performance, it has been impressive even vs. other PVT peers (see charts
(Rs)

250 inside) whether we look at asset quality or overall profitability.


200
150  Changes at RBI: Could it be that RBI is taking time to decide given the changes in
100 Deputy Governors since Aug-2015? Even though the current Governor was in the
Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-15

Sep-16

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-17

RBI at the time of Mr Kapoor’s last renewal in Aug-2015, 4 of the existing Dy


Governors were either not in RBI or not in the position of Dy Governor at that time
(see table inside).
 Recent regulatory approvals received: If one were to go by recent regulatory
approvals and rating agency actions over the past, it is apparent that YES Bank has
been on the right side of regulatory and rating agencies (see table inside).
 Valuations and target price: Yes Bank’s stock is 15% off its recent peak and
trades at 2.3x P/ABV and 11x P/E 1-year forward. We believe the stock is set for a
rerating as retail becomes a meaningful part of the balance sheet mix and growth
opportunities abound as the bank gains critical size. We set our DDM-based target
price at Rs503, representing a 52% upside and implying a target P/ABV of 3.5x and
P/E of 16x.
Market Cap Rs771bn/US$10.8bn Year to Mar FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Reuters/Bloomberg YESB.BO/YES IN NII (Rs bn) 58 77 106 136
Shares Outstanding (mn) 2,308.1 Net Profit (Rs bn) 33 42 57 76
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 394/287 EPS (Rs) 15.8 18.3 24.8 33.0

Sachin Sheth Free Float (%) 80.0 % Change YoY 30.1 16.3 35.1 33.3
sachin.sheth@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 42.5 P/E (x) 21.2 18.2 13.5 10.1
+91 22 6637 7572 Daily Volume (US$'000) 69,448 P/BV (x) 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.1
Sandeep Joshi Absolute Return 3m (%) (2.6) P/ABV (x) 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.1
Sandeep.joshi@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7658 Absolute Return 12m (%) (4.6) GNPA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1
Sensex Return 3m (%) 9.5 RoA (%) 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7
Sensex Return 12m (%) 21.8 RoE (%) 18.6 17.7 20.3 22.7

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Yes Bank, September 4, 2018 ICICI Securities

YES Bank’s past performance


As mentioned above, we take a look at the impact of divergence as well as YES’ asset
quality and profitability metrics vs peers – and find that on the former, the impact is not
as large as the reported gross number and for the latter, its performance is on par with
peers, excluding the large PVT banks facing corporate loan stresses. Not only is the
final NPL amount a fraction of the original divergence reported, but the provisioning
impact on earnings is also not significant.
Table 1: YES Bank – Reported and Net divergence
FY17 FY16
Particulars Rs mn % Rs mn %
Divergence in Gross NPL 63,552 41,767
Of which:
i) Repayment received 16,904 27 25,060 60
ii) Sales to ARC 4,615 7 8,771 21
iii) Upgraded to standard due to satisfactory performance 29,839 47 1,253 3

Remaining classified as NPL 12,194 19 6,683 16


Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 1: YES Bank vs peers – Impaired loans

Large Retail Bank Axis Bank IndusInd Bank


Yes Bank Kotak Large PVT bank
12

10

8
(%)

0
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
Q2FY16

Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 2: YES Bank vs peers – ROA

Large Retail Bank Axis Bank IndusInd Bank


Yes Bank Kotak Large PVT bank
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
(%)

0.5
0.0
(0.5)
(1.0)
(1.5)
Q4FY13

Q1FY17
Q2FY13
Q3FY13

Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16

Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

2
Yes Bank, September 4, 2018 ICICI Securities

Deputy Governors - Changes at RBI


We tried to identify which of the Dy Governors was there the last time Mr Kapoor got
his extension in Aug 2015, and who continue to be in RBI today. The answer is just
one – the current Governor, Urjit Patel, who was Dy Governor in 2015. All the current
Dy Governors have come on board in their existing capacities subsequent to 2015.
Thus, it could well be that the decision making authority needs more time to examine
the case for extension.
Name Tenure
Shri M. K. Jain 22.06.2018 onwards
Shri B.P. Kanungo 03.04.2017 onwards
Dr. Viral V. Acharya 23.01.2017 onwards
Shri N. S. Vishwanathan 04.07.2016 onwards
Shri S. S. Mundra 31.07.2014 to 30.07.2017
Shri R. Gandhi 03.04.2014 to 02.04.2017
Dr. Urjit R. Patel 11.01.2013 to 10.01.2016
11.01.2016 to 04.09.2016
Shri Harun R. Khan 04.07.2011 to 03.07.2014
04.07.2014 to 04.07.2016
Shri Anand Sinha 19.01.2011 to 18.01.2014
Dr. Subir Gokarn 24.11.2009 to 31.12.2012
Dr.K.C.Chakrabarty 15.06.2009 to 25.04.2014
Smt Usha Thorat 10.11.2005 to 09.11.2010
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Recent regulatory approvals, credit ratings for YES Bank


Events Date
RBI license to import bullion 2-Apr-18
RBI approval to open overseas offices at London & Singapore 20-Apr-18
SEBI approval for custodian of securities business 18-Jun-18
SEBI approval to start mutual fund business 4-Jul-18
Rating upgrade to AAA with stable outlook by CARE 5-Jul-18
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

3
Yes Bank, September 4, 2018 ICICI Securities

Valuations, stock performance and target price


YES Bank’s stock trades at multiples of 2.9x P/ABV and 15x P/E 1-year forward.

Chart 3: Yes Bank P/ABV


6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0
(x)

2.0

1.0

0.0
May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

Chart 4: Yes Bank P/E


30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0
(x)

10.0

5.0

0.0
May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Jan-13

Jan-18
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

We value the stock using a 3-period DDM model with the following key assumptions:
Sustainable RoE: 19.1% (cycle average)
Cost of equity: 14.5%
Three growth periods for earnings:
 High growth FY19-FY24: 15.9% with dividend payout at 17%
 Stable growth FY25-FY29: 9.0% with dividend payout increasing to 38%
 Terminal growth: 4.5% with dividend payout at 38%
Accordingly we arrive at our target price of Rs503, which implies a 1-year forward
P/ABV multiple of 3.9x and P/E of 20.3x.

4
Yes Bank, September 4, 2018 ICICI Securities

Financial summary
Table 2: Profit and Loss statement
(Rs mn, year ending Mar 31)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net Interest Income 22,188 27,163 34,878 45,667 57,973 77,371 105,833 135,552
% Growth 37 22 28 31 27 33 37 28
Fee income 10,762 12,609 19,765 24,592 31,400 41,380 55,863 72,621
Add: Other income 1,812 4,607 700 2,530 10,168 10,859 11,016 10,159
Total Net Income 34,762 44,378 55,343 72,789 99,541 129,609 172,711 218,333
% Growth 41 28 25 32 37 30 33 26
Less: Operating Expenses (13,345) (17,499) (22,847) (29,764) (41,165) (52,128) (68,504) (86,608)
Pre-provision operating profit 21,417 26,880 32,496 43,025 58,375 77,481 104,207 131,725
NPA Provisions (1,455) (1,358) (1,300) (4,979) (6,634) (10,788) (14,500) (13,000)
Other provisions (704) (2,259) (2,095) (384) (1,300) (4,750) (4,502) (5,156)
PBT 19,257 23,263 29,101 37,662 50,441 61,943 85,205 113,569
Less: taxes (6,251) (7,085) (9,047) (12,268) (17,140) (19,697) (28,118) (37,478)
PAT 13,007 16,178 20,054 25,394 33,301 42,246 57,088 76,091
% Growth 33 24 24 27 31 27 35 33
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 3: Balance sheet


(Rs mn, year ending Mar 31)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Capital 3,586 3,606 4,177 4,205 4,565 4,606 4,606 4,606
Reserve & Surplus 54,490 67,611 112,622 133,661 215,976 252,977 299,952 362,019
Deposits 669,556 741,920 911,758 1,117,195 1,428,739 2,007,381 2,609,596 3,340,283
Borrowings 209,221 213,143 262,204 316,590 386,067 748,936 859,329 981,296
Other liabilities 54,187 63,877 70,942 80,983 115,253 110,556 149,251 171,638
Total liabilities 991,041 1,090,158 1,361,704 1,652,634 2,150,599 3,124,456 3,922,733 4,859,842

Cash & Bank Balances 40,658 58,917 75,572 82,184 195,494 247,344 292,090 349,860
Investment 429,760 409,504 432,285 488,385 500,318 683,989 786,588 865,247
Advances 469,996 556,330 755,498 982,099 1,322,627 2,035,339 2,684,591 3,434,986
Fixed Assets 2,295 2,935 3,190 4,707 6,835 8,324 7,305 7,325
Other Assets 48,332 62,473 95,160 95,259 125,325 149,460 152,159 202,424
Total Assets 991,041 1,090,158 1,361,704 1,652,634 2,150,599 3,124,456 3,922,733 4,859,842
% Growth 34.6 10.0 24.9 21.4 30.1 45.3 25.5 23.9
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 4: Dupont Analysis


(%, year ending Mar 31)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Interest income 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.0 8.6 7.7 8.0 8.2
Interest expense (7.0) (7.0) (6.6) (5.9) (5.6) (4.8) (5.0) (5.1)
NII 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1
Other income 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9
Fee income 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7
Total income 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0
Operating expenses (1.5) (1.7) (1.9) (2.0) (2.2) (2.0) (1.9) (2.0)
Operating profit 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.0
NPA provision (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.3)
Total provisions (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.5) (0.4)
PBT 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.3
Tax (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (0.9) (0.7) (0.8) (0.9)
PAT 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

5
Yes Bank, September 4, 2018 ICICI Securities
Table 5: Key ratios
(Year ending Mar 31)
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Per share data
EPS – Diluted (Rs) 7.3 9.0 9.6 12.1 15.8 18.3 24.8 33.0
% Growth 31.0 23.7 7.0 26.3 30.1 16.3 35.1 33.3
DPS (Rs) 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.8 5.2
Book Value per share (BVPS) (Rs) 32 39 56 66 104 112 132 159
% Growth 22.2 21.9 41.6 17.7 58.7 7.0 18.2 20.4
Adjusted BVPS (Rs) 32 39 56 65 101 108 129 156
% Growth 22.4 21.7 41.2 16.7 55.8 6.8 19.6 21.0

Valuations
Price / Earnings (x) 46.0 37.2 34.8 27.5 21.2 18.2 13.5 10.1
Price / Book (x) 10.3 8.5 6.0 5.1 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.1
Price / Adjusted BV (x) 10.3 8.5 6.0 5.1 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.1

Asset Quality
Gross NPA (Rs mn) 943 1,749 3,134 7,490 20,186 27,017 31,017 37,517
Gross NPA (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1
Net NPA (Rs mn) 70 261 877 2,845 10,723 13,128 10,628 10,128
Net NPA (%) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3
NPA Coverage ratio (%) 93 85 72 62 47 51.4 65.7 73.0
Gross Slippages (%) 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.34 1.38 1.12
Credit Cost (%) 0.34 0.26 0.20 0.57 0.57 0.64 0.61 0.42
Net NPL/Networth 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.1 4.9 5.1 3.5 2.8

Business ratios (%)


ROAA 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.60 1.62 1.73
ROAE 24.8 25.0 21.3 19.9 18.6 17.7 20.3 22.7
Credit Growth 23.7 18.4 35.8 30.0 34.7 53.9 31.9 28.0
Deposits Growth 36.2 10.8 22.9 22.5 27.9 40.5 30.0 28.0
CASA 18.9 22.0 23.1 28.1 36.3 36.5 37.5 40.0
Credit / Deposit Ratio 70.2 75.0 82.9 87.9 92.6 101.4 102.9 102.8
Cost-Income ratio 38.4 39.4 41.3 40.9 41.4 40.2 39.7 39.7
Operating Cost / Avr. Assets 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0
Fee Income / Total Income 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7

Earning ratios
Yield on Advances 12.7 12.7 12.2 11.2 10.6 9.22 9.42 9.54
Yield on Earning Assets 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.6 9.2 8.1 8.4 8.6
Cost of Deposits 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.1 6.4 5.5 5.5 5.4
Cost of Funds 8.0 7.9 7.6 6.9 6.5 5.48 5.69 5.76
NIM 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.25 3.10 3.15 3.22

Capital Adequacy (%)


RWA (Rs mn) 672,323 765,969 1,034,022 1,329,499 1,863,340 2,704,511 3,498,406 4,438,976
Tier I 9.5 9.8 11.5 10.7 13.3 12.9 11.6 10.9
CAR 18.3 14.4 15.6 16.5 17.0 17.3 15.2 14.0
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

6
Yes Bank, September 4, 2018 ICICI Securities

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Sachin Sheth, MBA; Sandeep Joshi, CA; Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in
this research report accurately
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