1 MARCH 2002 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 545

Variability of Annual Precipitation and Its Relationship to the

El Niño–Southern Oscillation
MURRAY C. PEEL AND THOMAS A. MCMAHON
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology,
The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

BRIAN L. FINLAYSON
School of Anthropology, Geography and Environmental Studies, Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology,
The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

13 March 2001 and 6 September 2001

ABSTRACT
The importance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to annual precipitation variability is assessed by
dividing stations into regions of ENSO and non-ENSO influence as defined by Ropelewski and Halpert and then
comparing these regions by Köppen climate type for significant differences in the zone average of the variability
of annual precipitation. Of the 13 Köppen climate types that had 10 or more precipitation stations in both ENSO
and non-ENSO influenced regions, 8 had significant differences in the zone average of the variability [defined
as the coefficient of variation (C y )] of annual precipitation with the variability of annual precipitation being
higher in the ENSO than the non-ENSO zone in every case. The range of increase in the C y of annual precipitation
was generally 5%–25%.
These results confirm earlier findings in relation to the variability of annual runoff and also are consistent
with earlier findings in relation to the variability of annual precipitation. However, the impact of ENSO on
variability of annual precipitation of 5%–25% reported in this note is considerably less than the 33%–50%
reported previously.

1. Introduction Nicholls recommended that the analysis be repeated us-

Observed continental differences in the variability of
annual runoff (McMahon et al. 1992) led to the inves-
tigation of potential continental differences in the var-
iability of annual precipitation. When tested for, con-
tinental differences in the variability of annual precip-
itation were identified but were found to only partially
explain the observed continental differences in the var-
iability of annual runoff (Peel et al. 2001). Annual
evapotranspiration differences between evergreen and
deciduous vegetation in temperate regions were also
identified as contributing to the observed differences in
the variability of annual runoff (Peel et al. 2001). The
expectation of larger continental differences in the var-
iability of annual precipitation than those observed was
based on the work of Nicholls (1988) who, using the
data of Conrad (1941), found that stations influenced
by ENSO had 33%–50% higher variability of annual
precipitation than stations not influenced by ENSO.
Corresponding author address: Dr. Murray C. Peel, Department
of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Mel-
bourne, 3010 Victoria, Australia.
E-mail: mpeel@unimelb.edu.au
ing a different measure of relative variability to that of
Conrad (1941) and more stations with a longer period
of record than those of Conrad (1941).
In this note the influence of ENSO on the variability
of annual precipitation is reassessed using a larger da-
tabase, a different measure of relative variability, and a
different methodology to that of Nicholls (1988). Con-
tinental differences in the variability of annual precip-
itation are also retested using the larger database.
2. Data
The spatial distribution of climatic conditions varies
across continents. Continental comparisons based on av-
erages derived from a whole continent ignore the vary-
ing spatial distributions of climatic conditions active in
each continent. This problem is avoided by stratifying
the data into climate types and only comparing data from
the same climate type. Throughout this paper the Köp-
pen climate classification (Köppen 1936; Petterssen
1958) is used to stratify the data. A brief description of
the Köppen climate zones used in this analysis is pre-
sented in Table 1.
Monthly precipitation and monthly mean daily tem-

q 2002 American Meteorological Society

546 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
TABLE 1. Brief description of the Köppen climate zones used in
this analysis (from Petterssen 1958).
1st letter 2d letter 3d letter Explanation
A Tropical
f Rainforest
m Monsoon
w Savanna
B Arid
W Desert
S Steppe
h Hot
k Cold
C Temperate
s Dry summer
w Dry winter
f Without dry season
a Hot summer
b Warm summer
c Cool summer
D Cold
s, w, f Same as for C
a, b, c Same as for C
d Very cold winter
E Polar
T Tundra
H Polar climate due
to high elevation
perate data were obtained from the Global Historical
Climatology Network version 2 (Vose et al. 1992; main-
tained online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/
res40.pl?page5ghcn.html). The Köppen climate clas-
sification was calculated for 4314 stations that had at
least 10 complete years of precipitation and 120 months
of mean temperature data recorded at the same location
(see Fig. 1).
The continental distribution of the 4314 stations by
FIG. 1. Spatial and continental distribution of 4314 precipitation stations used in this analysis.
VOLUME 15
Köppen climate type is presented in Table 2. The def-
inition of the continents follows that of McMahon et al.
(1992) except the boundary between southern Africa
(SAF) and northern Africa (NAF) is at the equator rather
than 58S latitude (see Fig. 1). The continental symbols
used through out this paper are defined in the caption
to Table 2.
The mean annual precipitation for each continental
Köppen climate type is calculated by averaging the in-
dividual station mean annual precipitation values in that
particular climate type (Table 3). Average values for a
Köppen climate type are only calculated for types with
at least 10 precipitation stations throughout this note.
Generally the mean annual precipitation of continents
is similar for a given Köppen climate type indicating
that the Köppen classification system is successful in
stratifying the precipitation stations into similar climate
types. Notable exceptions being Asia (AS) (Cwb),
northern America (NAM), (Cfb) and Europe (EUR)
(ET) which all have much higher mean annual precip-
itation than other continents in the same climate type.
Here AS (Cwb) contains 19 stations and is highly
skewed by Cherrapunji (in eastern India), which has a
mean annual precipitation of 10 739 mm (measured over
102 yr). NAM (Cfb) stations are mostly located along
the British Columbia northwest coast in a rain belt be-
tween the Pacific Ocean on the west and the Rocky
Mountains to the east. EUR (ET) has several stations
in Iceland that have mean annual precipitation of greater
than 1000 mm. In these cases the higher precipitation
totals are the result of orographic influences.
The 4314 precipitation stations, from 166 countries,
have a period of record that ranges from 10 to 299 yr,
an average annual record length of 63.5 yr, and represent
274 123 yr in total.
1 MARCH 2002 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 547

TABLE 2. Number of annual precipitation gauging stations in each Köppen climate type and continent. Continents are defined in McMahon
et al. (1992): AS 5 Asia, AUS 5 Australia, EUR 5 Europe, NAF 5 northern Africa, NAM 5 northern America, SAF 5 southern Africa,
SAM 5 southern America, and SP 5 South Pacific.

Zone AS AUS EUR NAF NAM SAF SAM SP Total

Af 25 1 — 2 6 3 8 21 66
Am 18 3 — 9 6 3 7 2 48
Aw 69 16 — 51 30 28 18 4 216
BWh 34 36 — 63 19 2 9 — 163
BWk 65 3 — 1 14 5 12 — 100
BSh 25 55 4 37 30 9 11 1 172
BSk 98 46 14 2 182 9 13 — 364
Csa 75 26 67 11 24 6 — — 209
Csb 29 35 12 1 74 2 4 — 157
Cwa 77 2 — 1 1 6 7 — 94
Cwb 19 — — 1 — 10 1 — 31
Cwc — — — — — — 1 — 1
Cfa 155 97 31 — 331 3 46 1 664
Cfb 11 96 104 — 34 5 10 10 270
Cfc — 1 2 — 1 — 1 — 5
Dsa 15 — — — 4 — — — 19
Dsb 33 — — — 41 — — — 74
Dsc 6 — 1 — 21 — — — 28
Dwa 96 — — — 1 — — — 97
Dwb 51 — — — 1 — — — 52
Dwc 51 — — — 2 — — — 53
Dfa 24 — 21 — 279 — — — 324
Dfb 49 — 159 — 572 — — — 780
Dfc 53 — 38 — 150 — — — 241
Dfd 7 — — — — — — — 7
ET 13 — 10 — 42 — 2 1 68
ETH 7 — 4 — — — — — 11
Total 1105 417 467 179 1865 91 150 40 4314

3. Variability of annual precipitation and ENSO
In order to investigate the role of ENSO on the var-
iability of annual precipitation the precipitation database
was stratified into zones of ENSO and non-ENSO in-
fluence (Fig. 2) by visual inspection of maps published
by Ropelewski and Halpert (1986, 1987). These maps
were used for defining ENSO/non-ENSO regions to en-
able comparison with the work of Nicholls (1988). The
zones of ENSO influence used are those displayed in
Fig. 21 of Ropelewski and Halpert (1987). Like Nicholls
(1988), stations in the immediate ENSO area that were
not part of a defined Ropelewski and Halpert ENSO
zone due to insufficient data were included as ENSO
influenced in this analysis. These stations are located in
Peru, Chile (above lat 408S) and the central Pacific Is-
lands.
Conrad (1941) and Nicholls (1988) calculated relative
variability as the mean of the absolute deviations from
the long-term mean expressed as a percentage of the
long-term mean. In this paper we use the coefficient of
variation (C y ) defined as the standard deviation divided
by the mean. Nicholls and Wong (1990) also used C y
in their analysis of the relative variability of annual
precipitation.
The C y of annual precipitation was calculated for each
of the 4314 stations. Next the average C y for each Köp-
pen climate type, irrespective of continent, was calcu-
lated by averaging the individual station C y values in
that particular type.
Differences in the zone average of annual precipita-
tion C y between ENSO and non-ENSO zones for a given
Köppen climate type were tested using the t or Mann–
Whitney tests, depending on whether the data were nor-
mally distributed. Normality was tested using the sam-
ple skewness (D’Agostino et al. 1990). The t test was
used when both sets of annual precipitation C y data were
normally distributed while the Mann–Whitney test was
used when either set of data were not normally distrib-
uted. The form of the t test was determined according
to whether the variances in annual precipitation C y data
differed between the ENSO and non-ENSO zones using
the variance ratio (F) test (Barber 1988). The Mann–
Whitney test assumes that the two populations being
tested have the same distribution shape, which was as-
sessed by comparing sample estimates of skewness and
kurtosis for each application of the test. Generally the
shapes of the sample distributions were different, so the
following significance levels should be treated with cau-
tion.
The distribution of ENSO and non-ENSO influenced
precipitation stations by Köppen climate type is pre-
sented in Table 4. The number of stations in each type
and the zone average of annual precipitation C y for each
ENSO/non-ENSO zone are also presented in Table 4.
548 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 15

TABLE 3. Continental zone average of mean annual precipitation TABLE 4. Number (N ) and zone average of annual precipitation Cy
(mm) by Köppen climate type. (Cy ) for ENSO and non-ENSO influenced zones by Köppen climate
type. Percentage difference (% Diff ) in the zone averages of annual
Köp- precipitation Cy and whether the ENSO and non-ENSO zone averages
pen AS AUS EUR NAF NAM SAF SAM SP of annual precipitation Cy are significantly different at the 5% level
Af 2777 2492 of significance (Sig).
Am 2610 ENSO Non-ENSO
Aw 1491 1153 1255 1128 1288 1142
BWh 147 241 115 182 Köppen N Cy N Cy % Diff Sig
BWk 100 179 121
Af 56 0.19 10 0.19 2.98% No
BSh 539 478 513 510 501
Am 18 0.23 30 0.19 19.98% Yes
BSk 289 355 342 322 273
Aw 80 0.26 136 0.21 26.42% Yes
Csa 676 654 701 560 669
BWh 43 0.68 120 0.69 21.76% No
Csb 613 716 912 1080
BWk 16 0.61 84 0.41 48.56% No
Cwa 1417
BSh 91 0.37 81 0.30 22.61% Yes
Cwb 1837 921
BSk 74 0.30 290 0.28 7.41% Yes
Cfa 1537 896 899 1177 1146
Csa 14 0.25 195 0.25 3.37% No
Cfb 1352 875 865 2296 1136 1272
Csb 25 0.21 132 0.22 25.06% No
Dsa 672
Cwa 11 0.26 83 0.21 25.19% Yes
Dsb 483 593
Cwb 11 0.22 20 0.18 25.18% Yes
Dsc 394
Cfa 169 0.24 495 0.20 21.32% Yes
Dwa 831
Cfb 92 0.22 178 0.18 21.72% Yes
Dwb 558
Dwc 464
Dfa 955 456 870
Dfb 730 645 783
Dfc 520 639 653 with the ENSO influenced zone always having higher
ET 275 783 251 annual precipitation C y than the non-ENSO zone. The
significant differences range from 7% to 27% (average
21%).
The percentage difference in the zone average of annual
precipitation C y for the ENSO influenced zone relative
Discussion
to the no-influence zone is also shown in Table 4. Sta-
tistically significant differences between the ENSO and The differences in variability associated with ENSO
non-ENSO zone averages of annual precipitation C y at influence of 7%–27% are lower than the range found by
the 5% level of significance are noted in Table 4. Nicholls (1988) of 33%–50%. The Köppen types where
A total of 13 Köppen climate types have 10 or more a significant influence of ENSO was not found were Af,
precipitation stations in both ENSO and non-ENSO BWh, BWk, Csa, and Csb. These zones represent areas
zones. Of these Köppen types, 8 have significant dif- of wet Tropics (Af), arid zones (BWh and BWk), and
ferences in the zone average of annual precipitation C y Mediterranean temperate zones (Csa and Csb).

FIG. 2. The 4314 precipitation stations stratified into ENSO and non-ENSO influenced zones.
1 MARCH 2002 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 549

In the analysis presented in Table 4 not all the data TABLE 5. Continental zone averages of annual precipitation Cy by
Köppen climate type.
have been used because of the restriction imposed of at
least 10 stations in each zone for comparisons. When Köppen AS AUS EUR NAF NAM SAF SAM SP
the precipitation stations are analyzed without stratifi- Af 0.18 0.21
cation by Köppen climate type, the globally averaged Aw 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.26 0.23 0.25
ENSO influenced stations have 27% higher annual pre- BWh 0.57 0.47 0.87 0.47
cipitation C y , than the non-ENSO influenced stations, BWk 0.41 0.36 0.71
BSh 0.33 0.38 0.29 0.33 0.34
which is statistically significant at the 5% level. This BSk 0.28 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.32
percentage difference is larger than that found for any Csa 0.23 0.22 0.26 0.27 0.31
significant difference in an individual Köppen climate Csb 0.19 0.19 0.25 0.23
type and is due to the inclusion of the cold (D) and Cwb 0.18 0.22
polar (E) climate-type stations, which have lower var- Cfa 0.19 0.28 0.21 0.20 0.23
Cfb 0.17 0.23 0.17 0.15 0.19 0.17
iability of annual precipitation and are generally not Dsb 0.21 0.24
influenced by ENSO. Dfa 0.21 0.21 0.20
The difference in the extent of the influence of ENSO Dfb 0.20 0.18 0.18
between this study and that of Nicholls (1988) is prob- Dfc 0.19 0.17 0.19
ET 0.24 0.22 0.28
ably attributable to the larger sample used here (4314
as opposed to 384 for Nicholls). The spatial distribution
of stations is also different. For example, Australian
precipitation stations were 1.3% of the number of sta- strongly influenced by ENSO (Nicholls and Wong
tions in Nicholls’s sample and are 9.7% of the total 1990); therefore, a reduction in the proportion of Aus-
stations in the present study. The temporal distribution tralian stations may have reduced the influence of ENSO
of the present data is also significantly different to the in the analysis presented here. The temporal distribution
data used by Nicholls, which consisted entirely of pre- of the present data is also significantly different to the
1930s data. ENSO activity and intensity fluctuates data used by Nicholls and Wong, which consisted en-
through time and the present dataset includes periods tirely of post-1950s data, which was a period of strong
of weak ENSO activity (roughly from 1920 to 1950; ENSO activity (Elliott and Angell 1988).
Elliott and Angell 1988).
In an extension to the work of Conrad (1941) and
4. Continental differences in the variability of
Nicholls (1988), Nicholls and Wong (1990) presented annual precipitation
results of a multivariate correlation analysis between the
variability of annual precipitation (C y ), mean annual In order to assess continental differences in the var-
precipitation, the absolute value of station latitude, the iability of annual precipitation, the annual precipitation
absolute value of the correlation between the Southern dataset was stratified by Köppen climate type and con-
Oscillation index (SOI), and annual precipitation, and tinent (not by ENSO influence). The Köppen-type av-
station elevation. Nicholls and Wong used 955 stations erages of annual precipitation C y by continent are pro-
in their analysis. A similar analysis was conducted using vided in Table 5. The sample sizes used to calculate
the 4314 precipitation stations in our dataset. The min- each Köppen-type average of annual precipitation C y
imum record length of the Nicholls and Wong data was are found in Table 2. Continental differences in the Köp-
25 yr and all the data had been collected since 1950. pen-type average of annual precipitation C y were tested
The SOI data used in the analysis here is Troup’s SOI using the t or Mann–Whitney tests, depending on wheth-
(which is regularly updated and available online at http: er the data were normally distributed as described pre-
//www.dar.csiro.au/nino/SOItable.htm). viously.
The global correlation between annual precipitation Continental differences in the variability of annual
C y and the absolute value of the correlation between precipitation for a given Köppen climate type were test-
annual precipitation and SOI (a measure of the impor- ed for all possible continental pairings (100 pairs in this
tance of SOI on annual precipitation) is 0.18 for Nicholls case). Significant differences at the 5% level of signif-
and Wong (1990) and 0.10 in this study (a reduction of icance were found in 58 pairs. The average of the per-
44%). The signs of the other correlations are all the centage differences in the type average of annual pre-
same and the correlation coefficients are generally sim- cipitation C y for the significant pairs is 27%, for the
ilar in both studies (not shown). nonsignificant pairs it is 8.2%. The average of the per-
The lesser influence of ENSO in our results, compared centage differences in the Köppen-type average of an-
to those of Nicholls and Wong (1990), is again attrib- nual precipitation C y for the 10 most significantly dif-
utable to the different sample used in this analysis. The ferent pairs (ranked by significance level) is 34%.
number of stations used in this paper is larger and the Type Af and Dfa are the only Köppen climate types
spatial distribution of stations is also different (Austra- where no significant continental differences at the 5%
lian precipitation stations are 31% of the total stations level of significance are found. Of the 10 most signif-
in Nicholls and Wong). Australian precipitation is icantly different pairs eight involve Australia (AUS)
550 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
having significantly higher variability than other con-
tinents, specifically Cfa [4 pairs, AS, EUR, southern
America (SAM), and NAM), Cfb (2 pairs, NAM and
EUR), BSh (1 pair, NAF), and Aw (1 pair, NAF). The
remaining two pairs involve SAM having significantly
higher variability than AS and NAM in the Cfa type.
Discussion
The results presented in Table 5 are similar to those
of Peel et al. (2001) in that the differences in the var-
iability of annual precipitation between continents for
a given Köppen climate type are of a similar magnitude.
The analysis presented is an improvement over that of
Peel et al. (2001) in two ways.
First, the results presented in Table 5 are derived from
a database of annual precipitation stations that is twice
as large as that used in Peel et al. (2001), 4314 stations
as opposed to 2141. Second, in assigning stations to a
Köppen climate type, raw temperature and precipitation
data were used to calculate each station’s Köppen cli-
mate type, whereas Peel et al. (2001) assigned stations
to a climate type by visual inspection of a Köppen cli-
mate type map.
Continental differences in the Köppen-type average
of annual precipitation C y are observed in nearly all
Köppen types used in this analysis. Of the 100 conti-
nental pairs tested 58% had significant differences at
the 5% level of significance. The average percentage
difference in the type average of annual precipitation
C y for pairs where significant differences were found
was 226% higher than for pairs where significant dif-
ferences were not found.
The importance of ENSO to continental differences
in the variability of annual precipitation is demonstrated
by comparing the results of continental pairs that in-
cluded a continent influenced by ENSO as defined by
Ropelewski and Halpert (1986, 1987) to continental
pairs that did not contain an ENSO influenced continent.
Continental Köppen types that are within regions of
ENSO related precipitation are AUS (Aw, BWh, BSh,
BSk, Cfa, and Cfb), NAM (Aw and BWk), SAF (Aw
and Cwb), SAM (Cfa and Cfb), and the South Pacific
(SP) (Af ).
Thirty-eight continental pairs contain an ENSO in-
fluenced continental zone and a non-ENSO influenced
continent (ENSO/non-ENSO), 5 continental pairs con-
tain 2 ENSO influenced continents (ENSO/ENSO). Of
the 38 ENSO/non-ENSO pairs, 26 (68%) have signifi-
cant differences in the zone average of annual precip-
itation C y [of which 23 pairs (88%) have higher vari-
ability in the ENSO influenced continent]. The 5 ENSO/
ENSO pairs have 3 with significant differences and the
57 non-ENSO/non-ENSO pairs have 29 (51%) with sig-
nificant differences. The average of the percentage dif-
ferences in the zone average of annual precipitation C y
for the significantly different ENSO/non-ENSO pairs,
where the ENSO continent has higher variability, is
VOLUME 15
27%, while the average for the non-ENSO/non-ENSO
pairs is 23%.
The role of ENSO is also seen in the 10 most sig-
nificantly different continental pairs, which consist of 9
where an ENSO influenced continent has significantly
higher variability of annual precipitation than a non-
ENSO influenced continent. The remaining pair is be-
tween 2 ENSO influenced continents. The range of per-
centage differences between the continental zone av-
erage of annual precipitation C y for the 10 most sig-
nificant pairs was 47%–14%, with an average of 34%.
Thus an ENSO influenced continental zone is more
likely than a non-ENSO influenced continental zone to
have significantly different (generally higher) variability
of annual precipitation when compared to non-ENSO
influenced continental zones. Again ENSO is generally
found to increase the variability of annual precipitation
on average by 25%.
5. Conclusions
In this note the influence of ENSO on the variability
of annual precipitation was reassessed using a larger
database, a different measure of relative variability, and
a different methodology to that of Nicholls (1988), and
the observed continental differences in the variability
of annual precipitation of Peel et al. (2001) were retested
using a larger database.
The importance of ENSO to the variability of annual
precipitation was assessed by dividing stations into re-
gions of ENSO and non-ENSO influence, defined by
Ropelewski and Halpert (1986, 1987) and then com-
paring these regions by Köppen climate type for sig-
nificant differences in the zone average of annual pre-
cipitation C y . Of the 13 Köppen climate types that had
10 or more precipitation stations in both ENSO and non-
ENSO influenced regions, 8 had significant differences
in mean annual precipitation C y with the annual pre-
cipitation C y being higher in the ENSO than the non-
ENSO zone in every case. In this comparison based on
Köppen climate type, the range of increased annual pre-
cipitation C y was generally 5%–25%. This range was
less than that found by Nicholls (1988).
The continental differences in the variability of annual
precipitation observed by Peel et al. (2001) were largely
confirmed. An ENSO-influenced continent is more likely
to have significantly different variability of annual pre-
cipitation, which was generally higher than the continent
to which it was compared, on average by 25%.
Acknowledgments. Reviews of the manuscript by two
anonymous reviewers improved the quality of the paper.
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