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By-Election
Voter Intention Numbers
10th September 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all
a survey was conducted between September three levels of government, President and CEO
8th and 9th among a sample of 184 adults, 18 Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
years of age or older, living in the provincial international public affairs.
district of Regina Northeast. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Main-
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were street Research has provided accurate snap-
interviews on both landlines and cellular shots of public opinion, having predicted a
phones. majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Lib-
The sampling frame was derived from both eral majority government in the 2015 federal
a national telephone directory compiled by election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
Mainstreet Research from various commercial the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in
sources and random digit dialing. In the case November 2017, and the Alabama special elec-
of random digit dials, respondents were asked tion in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member
the additional question of what region of the of the World Association for Public Opinion
province they resided in. Research and meets international and Canadi-
an publication standards.
14.8%
1.3% 31.9%
8%
All Voters
8.4%
1.5%
14.8%
8.4%
Gary Grewal, Sask Party Yens Pedersen, NDP Reid Hill, Liberal
Jessica
8.9% Schroeder, Green
1.3% Another Party Undecided
31.9%
8%
39.7%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
8.4%
41.4%
35.6%
Gary Grewal, Sask Party Yens Pedersen, NDP Reid Hill, Liberal
Gary Grewal, Sask Party Yens Pedersen, NDP Reid Hill, Liberal
Jessica Schroeder, Green Another Party Undecided
Jessica Schroeder, Green Another Party
Breakouts
If a provincial by-election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Gary Grewal, Sask Party 31.9% 40.6% 23.5% 31.4% 24.7% 41.3% 30%
Yens Pedersen, NDP 35.6% 23.1% 47.6% 37.2% 36.2% 27.5% 42.9%
Reid Hill, Liberal 8.4% 10.5% 6.4% 15.7% 6.3% 5% 2.5%
Jessica Schroeder, Green 8% 12.9% 3.3% 15.7% 4.6% 5% 2.5%
Another Party 1.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0% 0% 3.7% 2.5%
Undecided 14.8% 11% 18.4% 0% 28.2% 17.4% 19.6%
Unweighted Frequency 184 84 100 12 36 44 92
Weighted Frequency 184 90 94 61 46 45 32
And which candidate will you vote for in the upcoming by-election? (first four
responses randomized)
Gary Grewal of the Saskatchewan Party
Yens Pedersen of the Saskatchwan NDP
Reid Hill of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party
Jessica Schroeder of the Saskatchewan Green Party
A Candidate of Another Party
Undecided
And which candidate are you leaning towards? (first four responses random-
ized - only asked of respondents who said they were undecided in previous
question)
Gary Grewal of the Saskatchewan Party
Yens Pedersen of the Saskatchwan NDP
Reid Hill of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party
Jessica Schroeder of the Saskatchewan Green Party
A Candidate of Another Party
Undecided