1701/161.

120 CP
MAN SC
Distance/Internal NSB
ASR
MASSEY UNIVERSITY
MANAWATU CAMPUS
EXAMINATION FOR
161.120 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS

Semester One 2017

________________________________________________

Time allowed: THREE (3) hours.

All Calculators are Permitted

This paper comprises:

SECTION A,
containing 30 multiple choice questions
Attempt ALL questions

Each question is worth 1 mark: total 30 marks for Section A

An InspiroScan Answer Form is provided for your answers to Section A.

Ensure that your name and identification number are entered clearly on the InspiroScan Answer
Form. Answers should be recorded directly on this form: Shade-in the entire circle surrounding the
character (A-E) that best represents your chosen answer. If subsequent changes are required, cross
through the original answer circle clearly with an X, before selecting an alternative. Use ballpoint
pen (blue or black); pencil is not permitted. Please follow all instructions carefully on the
InspiroScan Information Sheet provided, otherwise answers may not read correctly.
At the conclusion of the examination, please hand-in the completed InspiroScan Answer Form
separately.

SECTION B,
Containing 4 questions with a total value of 60 marks
Attempt ALL questions.

A detachable yellow answer section is provided for section B.

This examination contributes 61% of the final assessment.

Some formulae and statistical tables are provided at the end of the paper

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SECTION A
The answers to the questions in this section must be entered on an InspiroScan card using pen.

The first 14 questions relate to the following scenario:

A statistician decided to purchase a used Nissan Note car, freshly imported from Japan. In order to
find out which car was the best buy, the statistician retrieved the details of 180 Nissan Notes
advertised on TradeMe.co.nz on a particular day.

The details collected on the cars were the Asking Price (in $), the Year of first registration in Japan (2005,
2006, 2007, …, 2014), the Odometer Reading (distance travelled, in km), the Colour, and a few other facts
not relevant here.

A1. We can classify the variables Price, Year, Odometer and Colour as, respectively,

(a) Discrete, Discrete, Continuous, Ordinal

(b) Continuous, Ordinal, Continuous, Nominal
(c) Discrete, Ordinal, Nominal, Nominal
(d) Continuous, Discrete, Discrete, Ordinal
(e) Nominal, Ordinal, Continuous, Nominal

A2. The following boxplot shows the Asking Price versus the Year of first registration in Japan.

Boxplot of Price

$15,000.00

$12,500.00
Price

$10,000.00

$7,500.00

$5,000.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
year

The graph shows

(a) The median price increases with year
(b) The spread of prices increases with year
(c) There are two outliers in 2006
(d) All of the above
(e) Answers (a) and (c).

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The following histogram shows the Asking Price (in dollars) for the 42 Nissan Note cars first registered in
2006.

A3. The most reasonable estimates of mean and standard deviation for these prices are

(a) Mean=6800 Standard deviation=900

(b) Mean=6800 Standard deviation =1500
(c) Mean= 6800 Standard deviation = 2100
(d) Mean=7300 Standard deviation=900
(e) Mean=7300 Standard deviation=1500

A4. The proportion of cars inside the interval 5500 to 7000 is

(a) 0.26
(b) 0.36
(c) 0.64
(d) 0.74
(e) 0.84

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A5. The following Stem and Leaf Plot shows the Odometer Reading for the 2008 Nissan Notes.
Stem-and-leaf N = 35
Leaf Unit = 1000km

1 0 8
1 1
4 2 255
6 3 25
7 4 4
12 5 13358
(10) 6 2223357789
13 7 247
10 8 013468
4 9
4 10 46
2 11 6
1 12
1 13
1 14 8

The median and interquartile range of odometer readings are, approximately

(a) 65000, 28000
(b) 65000, 53000 – 81000
(c) 65000, 140000
(d) 65000, 8000 – 148000
(e) 53000, 81000

A6. The following graph is a scatterplot of the Asking Price for the Nissan Note cars first registered in 2006,
versus the Odometer Reading of the car (1000km = in thousands of kilometres).

Scatterplot of Price vs 1000km

$10,000.00

$9,000.00

$8,000.00
Price

$7,000.00

$6,000.00

$5,000.00

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
1000km

The best estimate of correlation coefficient between Price and the 1000km variable is
(a) 0.50
(b) 0.02
(c) – 0.08
(d) – 0.42
(e) – 0.94

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A7. The least squares regression line shown on the graph in Question A6 has equation

'Price' = 8594 - 24.50 * '1000km'

What is the estimated Price for a 2006 Nissan Note with 57,830 km on the odometer?

(a) $ 4958
(b) $ 1416
(c) $ 7177
(d) $ 5071
(e) $ 8683

A8. The following plot shows the residuals versus odometer reading (1000km) for the linear regression
model in questions A6 and A7. The statistician is keen to know which of the five cars labelled on the
graph looks like the best bargain, and why:

Scatterplot of RESI1 vs Odometer Reading

D
3000

2000

1000
RESI1

E
A

0
C

-1000

-2000
B
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
1000km

(a) Car A, because it has the lowest odometer value and has a positive residual
(b) Car B, because it has the biggest negative residual
(c) Car C, because the odometer reading was close to the average
(d) Car D, because it has the biggest positive residual
(e) Car E, because it has the highest odometer value and has a positive residual

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A9. The same regression model Price = b0 + b1. '1000km' was fitted for the whole dataset of 180 Nissan
Notes. The following four-in-one plot shows the residuals from this model. Which of the following are true?

Residual Plots for Price

Normal Probability Plot Versus Fits
99.9
99
4000
90

Residual
Percent

2000
50
0
10
-2000
1
0.1 -4000
-5000 -2500 0 2500 5000 5000 7500 10000
Residual Fitted Value

Histogram Versus Order

24
4000
Frequency

18
Residual

2000

12 0

6 -2000

0 -4000
-3000 -1500 0 1500 3000 4500 1 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Residual Observation Order

(a) The residuals are left-skewed

(b) The residuals are normally distributed
(c) The residuals show lack of independence
(d) The spread of residuals increases with the fitted value
(e) Answers (a) and (d)

A10. The colours of the 180 Nissan Notes mentioned earlier are summarised in the following table.
What would be the best way to graph these data?
Colour Count
Black 18
Blue 10
Brown/Beige 7
Dark Grey 15
Electric Blue 12
Gold 6
Green 9
Light Grey 45
Other 5
Red 12
Silver 26
White 15
N= 180
(a) A histogram
(b) A bar chart
(c) A dotplot
(d) A stem and leaf plot
(e) A scatterplot

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A11. Forty-five of the 180 Nissan Notes in the above sample were coloured light grey. Suppose this sample
is representative of the colours of all small Nissan cars. Find a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of
small Nissan cars which are light grey.

(a) 0.187 to 0.313

(b) 0.216 to 0.284
(c) 0.233 to 0.277
(d) 0.387 to 0.513
(e) 0.418 to 0.482

A12. Out of 85 Nissan Notes registered in the years 2005-2007, 36 were light grey, dark grey or silver. Out
of 95 Nissan Notes registered after 2007, 50 were light grey, dark grey or silver

Assuming this sample is representative of the colours of all small Nissan cars of these years, the formula
for a 95% confidence interval for π 2 − π 1 , the difference in the proportion of grey, dark grey or silver
cars in these periods, is

π 1 (1 − π 1 ) π 2 (1 − π 2 )
(a) π 2 − π 1 ± 1.645 +
n1 n2
π 1 (1 − π 1 ) π 2 (1 − π 2 )
(b) π 2 − π 1 ± 1.96 +
n1 n2
π 1 (1 − π 1 ) π 2 (1 − π 2 )
(c) π 2 − π 1 ± 2.58 +
n1 n2
p1 (1 − p1 ) p 2 (1 − p 2 )
(d) p 2 − p1 ± 1.645 +
n1 n2
p1 (1 − p1 ) p 2 (1 − p 2 )
(e) p 2 − p1 ± 1.96 +
n1 n2

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Questions A13 and A14 relate to the following scenario.

It is claimed that NZ cars travel about 14,000 km per year, on average, which means that a car that has been
driven for five years should have, on average, an odometer reading of 70,000 km. A car buyer suspects the
distance will be less for second-hand Japanese imports like the Nissan Notes.

A sample of 21 Nissan Notes that had been driven for five years had a mean odometer reading of 65,490 km,
with a standard deviation of 23,130 km.

A13. What are the null and alternative hypotheses for testing whether second-hand Japanese imports
(driven for five years) have a lower odometer reading than the New Zealand average?

(a) H0: µ = 70000 H1: µ < 70000

(b) H0: µ < 70000 H1: µ ≥ 70000
(c) H0: µ = 70000 H1: µ ≠ 70000
(d) H0: µ = 65490 H0: µ ≥ 65490
(e) H0: µ = 65490 H0: µ ≠ 65490

A14. The following Minitab output shows the result of the hypothesis test. The test statistic T is hidden.

Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% Upper Bound T P

Odometer 21 65490 23130 5047 74.20 . . 0.191

Choose the right T value and conclusion:

(a) T = - 0.89; There is no evidence that second-hand Japanese imports have lower odometer readings.
(b) T = - 0.89; There is evidence that second-hand Japanese imports have lower odometer reading.
(c) T = -1.721; There is no evidence that second-hand Japanese imports have lower odometer
readings.
(d) T = - 0.195; There is evidence that second-hand Japanese imports have lower odometer readings.
(e) T = - 0.195; There is no evidence that second-hand Japanese imports have lower odometer
readings.

A15. A polling company phones randomly dialled telephone numbers and asks the respondent to answer a
survey about their political views. Past experience suggests the probability the respondent agrees to
answer is 0.7. If 1000 telephone numbers are called, there is a 95% probability that the number of
respondents agreeing to answer the survey is between

(a) 672 and 728

(b) 679 and 721
(c) 680 and 720
(d) 682 and 718
(e) 686 and 714

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A16. A late-night TV Comedy News show wishes to know what New Zealanders think about a controversial
issue. They invite viewers to text a response ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to a phone number. Texts cost 50 cents each.
They obtain 9,132 responses. Will the poll give an accurate representation of what New Zealanders
think? (Choose the statement that is most likely to be true)

(a) Yes, it will accurately represent what New Zealanders think, since the sample size is large.
(b) No, the poll will probably not give an accurate representation because of sampling error
(c) No, the poll will probably not give an accurate representation because of instrument error
(d) No, the poll will probably not give an accurate representation because of coverage error
(e) No, the poll will probably not give an accurate representation because of interviewer bias

Questions A17 and A18 relate to the following scenario.

A food technologist has recruited 30 friends and colleagues to try out a new recipe for a dairy food. He
wants to know whether they prefer the old or new recipe, or both equally well.
He plans to get 15 people to taste a serving of the new recipe first, then a serving of the old recipe; the
other 15 will taste their servings of dairy food in reverse order.
The people will be asked to rate each serving on a scale of 1 to 10, and their difference in ratings
(Xnew- Xold) will be analysed using a t-test.
Neither the food technologist, nor the people doing the tasting, will know which recipe they are trying
first: that decision will be made randomly, and the results will be collected and analysed by an
independent colleague.

A17. Which of the following concepts of experimental design are NOT illustrated by the above?
(a) Randomisation
(b) Replication
(c) Cross-over design
(d) Sampling with replacement
(e) Double-blind

A18. As an alternative to the above scenario, consider the following. A sales rep in a supermarket offers
customers the chance to taste a sample of the new recipe dairy food, or to taste the old recipe if they prefer.
Customers are then asked to rate the product they taste on a scale of 1 to 10. The ratings are written down,
and at the end of the day the mean ratings for the two products are compared.

Which of the following statements is correct?

(a) This is a survey rather than an experiment, since the customers choose the ‘treatment’ for
themselves
(b) The appropriate statistical analysis for this scenario is a paired t-test
(c) This is a better approach since far more people have a chance to participate in the taste test
(d) As there will be a large number of participants, this approach will average out the effect of any
lurking variables
(e) If the P-value for the difference in means is highly significant, this will be enough to prove that
changing the recipe causes a change in mean rating.

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A19. The following graph shows the exchange rate (Australian dollars per New Zealand $1) from 3 January
2015 to 21 July 2016. The main characteristics of this time series are

Time Series Plot of Australian dollar

$1.0000

$0.9800

$0.9600
Australian dollar

$0.9400

$0.9200

$0.9000

$0.8800

1 39 78 117 156 195 234 273 312 351

Index

(a) Cyclic and Linear Trend

(b) Cyclic and Irregular
(c) Seasonal and Irregular
(d) Seasonal and Linear Trend
(e) Nonlinear Multiplicative Trend

A20. The following table shows the exchange rate (Y) in the last few days of the time series shown in A23,
along with smoothed values from an MA(5). What is the value of A ?

Date Y MA(5)
10 Jul 2016 0.9032 0.90136
13 Jul 2016 0.9039 0.9021
14 Jul 2016 0.9001 0.89896
15 Jul 2016 0.8986 0.89456
16 Jul 2016 0.8890 A
17 Jul 2016 0.8812
20 Jul 2016 0.8861

(a) A = 0.712
(b) A = 0.891
(c) A = 0.889
(d) A = 0.890
(e) A = 0.897

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Questions A21- A27 relate to “The World Values Survey 2014”, in which a sample of 816 New Zealanders
were asked about their level of ‘Satisfaction with Your Life’ (on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1=very low
satisfaction, …, 10=very high). They were also asked about their ‘State of Health’ (on a scale of 1=very
good, 2=good, 3= fair, and 4= poor). Their Age was recorded (in individual years, from 18 to 90).

A21. In the following one-way Analysis of Variance, Age is treated as the response, and ‘Satisfaction with
Your Life’ as a group variable.

One-way ANOVA: Age versus Satisfaction with Life

Factor Levels Values

Satisfaction with Life 10 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Analysis of Variance

Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value

Satisfaction with Life 9 14508 1612.0 5.98 0.000
Error 807 217470 269.5
Total 816 231978

Suppose µ1,µ2,…,µ10 denote the population mean age for people with ‘Satisfaction with your Life’
level = 1,2,…,10 respectively

and let x1, x2 ,...., x10 be the sample mean age for people with ‘Satisfaction with your Life’ level
=1,2,…,10 respectively.

What are the null and alternative hypotheses for this ANOVA?

(a) H0: all means are equal H1: all means are unequal
(b) H0: all means are equal H1: at least one mean is different
(c) H0: at least one mean is different H1: all means are equal
(d) H0: all means are unequal H1: all means are equal
(e) H0: all means are unequal H1: at least two means are the same

A22. What should we conclude from the above ANOVA output?

(a) Since p=0.000 we reject H0 , and conclude the mean ages are not equal
(b) Since p=0.000 we do not reject H0 , and conclude that the mean ages are equal
(c) Since p=0.000 we reject H0 , and conclude that the mean ages are equal
(d) Since p=0.000 we do not reject H0 , and conclude that that the mean age is not equal
(e) Since the p=0.000 we conclude there is no relationship between Age and ‘Satisfaction with Your
Life’.

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A23. Which of the following assumptions is NOT necessary in order for the ANOVA to be statistically valid?

(a) The data within each group form a random sample

(b) The expected numbers must be at least 5
(c) The errors must have the same standard deviation
(d) The observations must be independent
(e) All of the above

The variable “Satisfaction with Your Life” was regrouped into three levels: Low (Satisfaction 1,2,3,4),
Medium (Satisfaction 5,6,7), and High (Satisfaction 8,9,10). The result is shown in the contingency table
against “State of Health” below:

Chi-Square Test for Association: State of Health, LifeStatisfactionGroup

Rows: State of Health Columns: LifeStatisfactionGroup

Life Satisfaction (grouped)

Low Medium High Total
'Very Good' 4 63 226 293
'Good' 25 116 233 374
'Fair' 20 53 53 126
'Poor' 10 10 3 23
Total 59 242 515 816

A24. The joint probability that a randomly selected respondent has Good or Very Good health and High life
satisfaction is

(a) 0.891
(b) 0.817
(c) 0.563
(d) 0.688
(e) 0.631

A25. The conditional probability that a randomly selected respondent has Poor or Fair health given that
he/she has Low life satisfaction is

(a) 1.20 %
(b) 1.97 %
(c) 3.67 %
(d) 0.183
(e) 0.508

A26. The marginal probabilities for ‘State of Health’ are

(a) 0.068, 0.424, 0.339, 0.169

(b) 0.260, 0.479, 0.219, 0.041
(c) 0.439, 0.452, 0.103, 0.006
(d) 0.359, 0.458, 0.154, 0.028
(e) 0.072, 0.297, 0.631, 1.000

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A27. Which of the following best describes the relationship between the ‘State of Health’ and ‘Life
Satisfaction group’.

(a) They are independent, as life satisfaction varies with state of health.
(b) They are mutually exclusive.
(c) They are independent as people with all different states of health can have low, medium or high
life satisfaction.
(d) They are dependent as the probabilities for low, medium or high life satisfaction change for
different states of health.
(e) They are independent as both totals add up to the same number 816.

A28. A lecturer wants to find out what other papers are being taken by the students in his large first year
statistics class. He randomly chooses a number between 1 and 10, and selects the student on that row of
the class list. He records what other papers that student is taking. He then selects every 10th
subsequent student on the list, and similarly records their papers. This is an example of

(a) a systematic sample

(b) a simple random sample
(c) a convenience sample
(d) a quota sample
(e) a cluster sample

A29. A particular type of apple tree gives fruit weighing on average 190g with a standard deviation of 16g.
Assuming weights are normally distributed, the probability that a randomly selected apple from the tree
weighs between 150 and 230g is closest to

(a) 0.9398
(b) 0.95
(c) 0.9876
(d) 0.9938
(e) 0.9963

A30. Ten (10) apples from the type in question A20 are randomly selected. The probability that the mean
weight of these apples exceeds 180g is closest to

(a) 0.236
(b) 0.375
(c) 0.476
(d) 0.524
(e) 0.976

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MASSEY UNIVERSITY
MANAWATU CAMPUS
EXAMINATION FOR
161.120 INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS

Semester One 2017

SECTION B:

Answers for this section are to be written using blue or black pen on the Question paper
in the spaces provided and handed in at the end of this examination.
Use of highlighters is permitted.

Please print clearly and underline your surname

NAME:

ID Number:

Campus/Mode: Manawatu / Albany / Other Distance Learning / Internal

Please circle as appropriate

You should attempt ALL Questions in this section.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For Examiners Use only

Question 1 2 3 4 Total
Mark

Total Mark 10 15 20 15 60

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B1. [Total for Question B1 = 10 marks ]

Google Trends is a web facility, based on Google Search, that shows how often a particular
search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume. Below is a time-series plot
produced by Google Trends for the phrase ‘quit smoking’ showing data recorded each week
between January 2004 and May 2015.

(a) Write a few sentences summarising the features of this graph. [3 marks ]

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(b) The table below shows the last three values in the original time series along with some
of the exponentially smoothed values calculated with smoothing constant of 0. 4.
Week Starting Frequency ES (0.4)
17/05/2015 24 24.50714
24/05/2015 25 24.70429
31/05/2015 25 A

(i) Calculate the value of A, the exponential smoothed value for the week starting 31st
May 2015. [2 marks]

(ii) Explain how an exponentially smoothed series with a smoothing constant of 0.04
would differ from the exponentially smoothed series with smoothing constant of 0.4.
[2 marks]

(iii) Explain why the exponentially smoothed series (regardless of smoothing constant)
would not have been useful for predicting the number of times “quit smoking” was
entered into Google in the week starting 1st November 2017. [1 mark]

(c) The original series was also smoothed using a centred 52-point moving mean.
(i) How many terms are included in the calculation of a centred 52- point moving
mean? [1 mark]

(ii) Why was a centred 52 point moving mean used for this data set? [1 mark]

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B2. [Total for Question B2 = 15 marks ]

A researcher is investigating the relationship between air quality measurements. Daily

readings of air quality values were recorded over 154 days. Below is the Minitab Express
output for a linear regression analysis of Ozone level (Ozone measured in ppb, parts per
billion) versus solar radiation (Solar.R measured in Angstroms).

(a) State and interpret the coefficients in the regression equation in context. [4 marks]

Y-intercept:

Slope:

(b) In context, explain what the R2 value tells us. [1 mark]

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(c) Below is a plot of the residuals from the linear regression analysis against Solar radiation.

Describe the problem(s) with the linear model suggested by this residual plot. [1 mark]

(d) In order to fix the model problem(s), the researcher created a new variable, ln(Ozone).
This variable contained the natural log of the Ozone level. The Minitab Express output
below shows a regression of this new variable on Solar.R for the sample of 154 days as
well as a plot of the residuals against Solar radiation.

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(i) Explain what evidence there is that this is a better model. [1 mark]

(ii) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the slope for this improved model, based on the
sample of 154 days. [4 marks]

(iii) The maximum solar radiation of 334 Angstrom was recorded on day 16. The Ozone
level recorded on this day was 14ppb.
On a day with a solar radiation reading of 334 Angstrom:
1. Use the regression equation for the improved model (in part (d)) to predict the
ln(Ozone)
2. Convert your prediction back to the original units
3. Calculate the residual for the data on day 16. [3 marks]

ln(Ozone) =

Ozone =

Residual =

(iv) Comment on the utility of this improved model for making predictions. [1 mark]

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B3. [Total for Question B3 = 20 marks ]

A physiologist wants to determine whether a

particular running programme has an effect on
resting heart rate of adults who can already
comfortably run for 5 kilometres.

The running programme is a one year

programme where participants are asked to
follow a series of simple extensions to their
current running sessions.

A random sample of 35 people who can already

comfortably run for 5 kilometres was selected.
The heart rates (beats per minute) of these
people were measured before they started the
running programme (Pulse1) and then again at
the conclusion of the running programme
(Pulse2).

The data is in the table to the right.

(a) You are to carry out a hypothesis test to see if

there is statistically significant evidence that
the running programme has had an effect on
the resting heart rate.

(i) Is a two-sample t-test or a paired t-test

the appropriate test to analyse this
data? Explain. [2 marks]

(ii) Is a one-sided or two-sided test

appropriate for this situation? [1 mark]

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(iii) State the null and alternative hypotheses for this test in words and/or symbols.
[2 marks]
H0:

H1:

(iv) What is the value of the test statistic? You MUST show your working to get full
marks [3 marks]

(v) What is the degrees of freedom for the appropriate test and the critical value for a
significance level of α = 0.05? [2 marks]

Degrees of freedom =

Critical Value =

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(vi) Is there evidence to reject the null hypothesis? Explain. [2 marks]

(vii) What effect did the running programme have on resting heart rate? State your
conclusion in context. [1 mark]

(viii) State the assumption(s) for this test. [2 marks]

(d) (i) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean difference (Pulse2 – Pulse1).
You MUST show your working to get full marks. [3 marks]

(ii) Interpret this confidence interval in context. [2 marks]

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B4. [Total for Question B4 = 15 marks ]

In a double blind, randomised trial during an outbreak of flu, the effect of two drugs
(Rimantadine and Amantadine) and a placebo were tested among 450 volunteer subjects.
The numbers developing flu-like symptoms are shown in the table below.
Treatment
Placebo Amantadine Rimantadine
No Flu 104 128 135
Flu-like symptoms 54 19 10
Total 158 147 145
a) (i) Convert the table above to show the proportion of people with and without flu for
each treatment. Fill in the table below. [2 marks]
Treatment
Placebo Amantadine Rimantadine
No Flu

Flu-like symptoms

Total 1 1 1
(ii) Sketch an appropriate graph that would enable the reader to compare the
distribution of the people with and without flu for each treatment (Exact
measurements are not required). [2 marks]

(iii) Summarise the main message from the graph. [1 mark]

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b) The researchers want to test whether being infected or not is independent of
treatment.
(i) State the null and alternate hypotheses for this test. [2 marks]

H0:

H1:

The Minitab Express output below gives the results from testing these hypotheses.

(ii) Show how the expected number of “no flu” people for Placebo was calculated.
[2 marks]

(iii) Show how the contribution to the Chi-square statistic from “flu-like symptoms”
for Placebo was calculated [2 marks]

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(v) Explain whether or not you have significant evidence against the null hypothesis.
[2 marks]

(vi) State your conclusion in context. Which treatment would you recommend?
[2 marks]

Conclusion:

Recommendation:

++++++++

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This page has been left blank on purpose for extra working.

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FORMULA SHEET

X −µ
Standardising values z= X = µ + zσ
σ
σ
Mean and Standard deviation of mean µX = µ σX =
n
π (1 − π )
Standard deviation of proportion µp = π , σ p =
n
Standard deviation of count (binomial) µ x = nπ , σ x = nπ (1 − π )
Standard deviation of sum or difference, assuming independence
σ X −Y = σ X +Y = σ X2 + σ Y2

General formula for a Confidence interval for a parameter based on a statistic:

Statistic + multiplier × Standard Error
where the multiplier is given below:
Parameter estimated Value of ‘multiplier’
Proportion z= 1.96 for 95% Confidence

Difference between proportions z= 1.96 for 95% Confidence

Mean t-tables, (n–1) d.f.

(note : if d.f.>30 use 1.96 for 95% Confidence, etc)
Difference between means t-tables, min(n1 – 1, n2 – 1) d.f.

Regression slope or intercept t-tables, (n – 2) d.f

General formula for a Test statistic:

Statistic − Hypothsised Value
Standard Error
(To apply these formulae for confidence intervals or tests, you might need to evaluate standard
deviations of sample means or proportions, or of differences between means or proportions, or
regression slope… See next page.)

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Formula sheet continued

Inference for a mean, µ: statistic = x

σ s
standard error = (or )
n n

Inference for a proportion, π: statistic = p

π (1 − π ) p(1 − p)
standard error (p) = (or )
n n

Inference for difference between population means, µ1 - µ2:

statistic = x1 − x 2

s12 s 22
standard error = std . dev. ( x1 − x 2 ) = +
n1 n 2

Inference for difference between population proportions, π1- π2:

(
statistic = p1 − p2 , )
p1(1− p1) p2 (1− p2 )
(
standard error = std.dev. p1 − p2 = ) n1
+
n2

Least squares regression line:

ŷ = b0 + b1 x

Inference for slope, β 1

statistic = b1
standard error: given by regression output

Exponential smoothing

Chi-Square Test for Independence d . f . = (# rows − 1)(# cols − 1)

(row total )(col total )
Expected cell counts in a contingency table with independence exp =
overall total
(obs − exp) 2
Test statistic for independence in contingency table χ2 = ∑
all cells in table exp

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Cumulative Normal Probabilities P(Z ≤ z)

probability, p

.09 .08 .07 .06 .05 .04 .03 .02 .01 .00 z
.0002 –3.5
.0002 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 –3.4
.0003 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0005 .0005 .0005 –3.3
.0005 .0005 .0005 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0007 .0007 –3.2
.0007 .0007 .0008 .0008 .0008 .0008 .0009 .0009 .0009 .0010 –3.1
.0010 .0010 .0011 .0011 .0011 .0012 .0012 .0013 .0013 .0013 –3.0
.0014 .0014 .0015 .0015 .0016 .0016 .0017 .0018 .0018 .0019 –2.9
.0019 .0020 .0021 .0021 .0022 .0023 .0023 .0024 .0025 .0026 –2.8
.0026 .0027 .0028 .0029 .0030 .0031 .0032 .0033 .0034 .0035 –2.7
.0036 .0037 .0038 .0039 .0040 .0041 .0043 .0044 .0045 .0047 –2.6
.0048 .0049 .0051 .0052 .0054 .0055 .0057 .0059 .0060 .0062 –2.5
.0064 .0066 .0068 .0069 .0071 .0073 .0075 .0078 .0080 .0082 –2.4
.0084 .0087 .0089 .0091 .0094 .0096 .0099 .0102 .0104 .0107 –2.3
.0110 .0113 .0116 .0119 .0122 .0125 .0129 .0132 .0136 .0139 –2.2
.0143 .0146 .0150 .0154 .0158 .0162 .0166 .0170 .0174 .0179 –2.1
.0183 .0188 .0192 .0197 .0202 .0207 .0212 .0217 .0222 .0228 –2.0
.0233 .0239 .0244 .0250 .0256 .0262 .0268 .0274 .0281 .0287 –1.9
.0294 .0301 .0307 .0314 .0322 .0329 .0336 .0344 .0351 .0359 –1.8
.0367 .0375 .0384 .0392 .0401 .0409 .0418 .0427 .0436 .0446 –1.7
.0455 .0465 .0475 .0485 .0495 .0505 .0516 .0526 .0537 .0548 –1.6
.0559 .0571 .0582 .0594 .0606 .0618 .0630 .0643 .0655 .0668 –1.5
.0681 .0694 .0708 .0721 .0735 .0749 .0764 .0778 .0793 .0808 –1.4
.0823 .0838 .0853 .0869 .0885 .0901 .0918 .0934 .0951 .0968 –1.3
.0985 .1003 .1020 .1038 .1056 .1075 .1093 .1112 .1131 .1151 –1.2
.1170 .1190 .1210 .1230 .1251 .1271 .1292 .1314 .1335 .1357 –1.1
.1379 .1401 .1423 .1446 .1469 .1492 .1515 .1539 .1562 .1587 –1.0
.1611 .1635 .1660 .1685 .1711 .1736 .1762 .1788 .1814 .1841 –0.9
.1867 .1894 .1922 .1949 .1977 .2005 .2033 .2061 .2090 .2119 –0.8
.2148 .2177 .2206 .2236 .2266 .2296 .2327 .2358 .2389 .2420 –0.7
.2451 .2483 .2514 .2546 .2578 .2611 .2643 .2676 .2709 .2743 –0.6
.2776 .2810 .2843 .2877 .2912 .2946 .2981 .3015 .3050 .3085 –0.5
.3121 .3156 .3192 .3228 .3264 .3300 .3336 .3372 .3409 .3446 –0.4
.3483 .3520 .3557 .3594 .3632 .3669 .3707 .3745 .3783 .3821 –0.3
.3859 .3897 .3936 .3974 .4013 .4052 .4090 .4129 .4168 .4207 –0.2
.4247 .4286 .4325 .4364 .4404 .4443 .4483 .4522 .4562 .4602 –0.1
.4641 .4681 .4721 .4761 .4801 .4840 .4880 .4920 .4960 .5000 –0.0

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Cumulative Normal Probabilities P(Z ≤ z) (continued)
probability, p

z
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 .6293 .6331 .6368 .6406 .6443 .6480 .6517
0.4 .6554 .6591 .6628 .6664 .6700 .6736 .6772 .6808 .6844 .6879
0.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
0.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
0.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
0.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
0.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
1.0 .8413 .8438 .8461 .8485 .8508 .8531 .8554 .8577 .8599 .8621
1.1 .8643 .8665 .8686 .8708 .8729 .8749 .8770 .8790 .8810 .8830
1.2 .8849 .8869 .8888 .8907 .8925 .8944 .8962 .8980 .8997 .9015
1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099 .9115 .9131 .9147 .9162 .9177
1.4 .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251 .9265 .9279 .9292 .9306 .9319
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 .9693 .9699 .9706
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 .9756 .9761 .9767
2.0 .9772 .9778 .9783 .9788 .9793 .9798 .9803 .9808 .9812 .9817
2.1 .9821 .9826 .9830 .9834 .9838 .9842 .9846 .9850 .9854 .9857
2.2 .9861 .9864 .9868 .9871 .9875 .9878 .9881 .9884 .9887 .9890
2.3 .9893 .9896 .9898 .9901 .9904 .9906 .9909 .9911 .9913 .9916
2.4 .9918 .9920 .9922 .9925 .9927 .9929 .9931 .9932 .9934 .9936
2.5 .9938 .9940 .9941 .9943 .9945 .9946 .9948 .9949 .9951 .9952
2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964
2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974
2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981
2.9 .9981 .9982 .9982 .9983 .9984 .9984 .9985 .9985 .9986 .9986
3.0 .9987 .9987 .9987 .9988 .9988 .9989 .9989 .9989 .9990 .9990
3.1 .9990 .9991 .9991 .9991 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9993 .9993
3.2 .9993 .9993 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9995 .9995 .9995
3.3 .9995 .9995 .9995 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9997
3.4 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9998
3.5 .9998

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T table

d.f. p=0.05 p=0.025 p=0.01 p=0.005 p=0.001 p=0.0005

1 6.314 12.71 31.82 63.66 318.3 636.6
2 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.33 31.60
3 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.22 12.92
4 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173 8.610
5 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893 6.869
6 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.708 5.208 5.959
7 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.500 4.785 5.408
8 1.860 2.306 2.897 3.355 4.501 5.041
9 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.297 4.781
10 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.144 4.587
11 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.025 4.437
12 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.930 4.318
13 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 3.852 4.221
14 1.761 2.145 2.625 2.977 3.787 4.140
15 1.753 2.132 2.603 2.947 3.733 4.073
16 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 3.686 4.015
17 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.646 3.965
18 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.611 3.922
19 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.579 3.883
20 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.552 3.850
21 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.527 3.819
22 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.505 3.792
23 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.485 3.768
24 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.467 3.745
25 1.708 2.059 2.485 2.787 3.450 3.725
26 1.706 2.055 2.479 2.779 3.435 3.707
27 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.421 3.690
28 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.408 3.674
29 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.396 3.659
30 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.385 3.646
…
∞ 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.090 3.291

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