FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact:
Kevin Hill
hill@dubymcdowell.com
860.869.7239

MURPHY IN TROUBLE
Republican challenger Caligiuri ahead in latest poll

HARTFORD, CT (October 6, 2010) - U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy has fallen behind
Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri according to the CT Capitol Report Poll released
today. Rep. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent in Connecticut’s 5th congressional
district, has 44.3 percent to Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri’s 49.7 percent.
The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the Merriman
River Group, surveyed 481 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of
+/- 4.4 percentage points. 6.0 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of who they will
support in the race.
“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” says the
poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just
outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey.
While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to come
back after falling behind a challenger in the last month.
“The fifth district is shaping up to be the most Republican leaning district in
Connecticut this year. It is the strongest district for both Tom Foley and Linda McMahon
and is also the district least likely to have a positive opinion of President Obama, by a 43-
53 margin. Murphy certainly knows how to win this district, but the national mood and
the top of the ticket may be too much to overcome.”
A poll on Connecticut’s 1st and 4th congressional districts will be released
tomorrow.

About CTCapitolReport.com
CT Capitol Report is published and edited by veteran political professional Tom
Dudchik. Since its launch in 2009 its readership has grown exponentially and it is widely
considered the most comprehensive website for Connecticut political news.

About Merriman River Group

With offices in Hamden, CT and Los Angeles, CA, Merriman River Group is a full
service consulting organization specializing in election supervision and administration,
public opinion research, and communication services. In 2010, Merriman River Group
launched their NexGen IVR polling system, which offers professional grade polling and
analysis with reduced costs and faster completion time. NexGen IVR has been used in
public and private polling from New England to Hawaii this year, with accuracy far
exceeding traditional polling methods. For more information on Merriman River Group,
please visit www.merrimanriver.com.

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 CT 5th Congressional District

Margin of Error = 4.5%

Frequency Percent

Valid Congress:Caligiuri 239 49.7

Congress:Murphy 213 44.3

Congress:Unsure 29 6.0

Total 481 100.0

 Congress * Gender Crosstabulation

Gender

Gender:Not
Gender:female Gender:male Reported Total

Congress Congress:Caligiuri Count 127 109 3 239

% within Gender 46.9% 54.5% 30.0% 49.7%

Congress:Murphy Count 123 85 5 213

% within Gender 45.4% 42.5% 50.0% 44.3%

Congress:Unsure Count 21 6 2 29

% within Gender 7.7% 3.0% 20.0% 6.0%

Total Count 271 200 10 481

% within Gender 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Gender * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress

Congress:Caligiu Congress:Murph Congress:Unsur

ri y e Total

Gender Gender:female Count 127 123 21 271

% within Congress 53.1% 57.7% 72.4% 56.3%

Gender:male Count 109 85 6 200

% within Congress 45.6% 39.9% 20.7% 41.6%

Gender:Not Reported Count 3 5 2 10

% within Congress 1.3% 2.3% 6.9% 2.1%

Total Count 239 213 29 481

% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

 Congress * Party Crosstabulation

Party

3.
1. 2. Party:Independe 99. Party:Not
Party:Democrat Party:Republican nt 9. Party:Unsure Reported

Congress Congress:Caligiuri Count 32 111 83 3 10

% within Party 20.1% 86.7% 54.6% 33.3% 30.3%

Congress:Murphy Count 120 10 61 4 18

% within Party 75.5% 7.8% 40.1% 44.4% 54.5%

Congress:Unsure Count 7 7 8 2 5

% within Party 4.4% 5.5% 5.3% 22.2% 15.2%

Total Count 159 128 152 9 33

% within Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Congress * Tea Party Crosstabulation

Tea Party

9. 99.TeaParty:Not
1. TeaParty:Yes 2. TeaParty:No TeaParty:Unsure Reported Total

Congress Congress:Caligiuri Count 88 112 30 9 239

% within Tea Party 90.7% 37.1% 58.8% 29.0% 49.7%

Congress:Murphy Count 8 176 12 17 213

% within Tea Party 8.2% 58.3% 23.5% 54.8% 44.3%

Congress:Unsure Count 1 14 9 5 29

% within Tea Party 1.0% 4.6% 17.6% 16.1% 6.0%

Total Count 97 302 51 31 481

% within Tea Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

 Congress * Obama Crosstabulation

Obama

1. 2. 3. 4.
Obama:Approve Obama:Approve Obama:Disappro Obama:Disappro 9.
strongly somewhat ve somewhat ve strongly Obama:Unsure Total

ngress Congress:Caligiuri Count 9 15 26 188 1

% within Obama 6.6% 20.8% 45.6% 92.6% 7.7% 49.

Congress:Murphy Count 124 51 25 9 4

% within Obama 91.2% 70.8% 43.9% 4.4% 30.8% 44.

Congress:Unsure Count 3 6 6 6 8

% within Obama 2.2% 8.3% 10.5% 3.0% 61.5% 6.

al Count 136 72 57 203 13

% within Obama 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.

Congress * Obama_Short Crosstabulation

Obama_Short

Obama:Disapprov
Obama:Approve e Obama:Unsure Total

ngress Congress:Caligiuri Count 24 214 1 239

% within Obama_Short 11.5% 82.3% 7.7% 49.7%

Congress:Murphy Count 175 34 4 213

% within Obama_Short 84.1% 13.1% 30.8% 44.3%

Congress:Unsure Count 9 12 8 29

% within Obama_Short 4.3% 4.6% 61.5% 6.0%

al Count 208 260 13 481

% within Obama_Short 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

 Obama * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress

Congress:Caligiu Congress:Murph Congress:Unsur

ri y e Total

Obama 1. Obama:Approve strongly Count 9 124 3 136

% within Congress 3.8% 58.2% 10.3% 28.3%

2. Obama:Approve Count 15 51 6 72
somewhat
% within Congress 6.3% 23.9% 20.7% 15.0%

3. Obama:Disapprove Count 26 25 6 57
somewhat
% within Congress 10.9% 11.7% 20.7% 11.9%

4. Obama:Disapprove Count 188 9 6 203

strongly
% within Congress 78.7% 4.2% 20.7% 42.2%

9. Obama:Unsure Count 1 4 8 13

% within Congress .4% 1.9% 27.6% 2.7%

Total Count 239 213 29 481

% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Obama_Short * Congress Crosstabulation

Congress

Congress:Caligiu Congress:Murph Congress:Unsur

ri y e Total

Obama_Short Obama:Approve Count 24 175 9 208

% within Congress 10.0% 82.2% 31.0% 43.2%

Obama:Disapprove Count 214 34 12 260

% within Congress 89.5% 16.0% 41.4% 54.1%

Obama:Unsure Count 1 4 8 13

% within Congress .4% 1.9% 27.6% 2.7%

Total Count 239 213 29 481

% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%