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MURPHY IN TROUBLE
Republican challenger Caligiuri ahead in latest poll
HARTFORD, CT (October 6, 2010) - U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy has fallen behind
Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri according to the CT Capitol Report Poll released
today. Rep. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent in Connecticut’s 5th congressional
district, has 44.3 percent to Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri’s 49.7 percent.
The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the Merriman
River Group, surveyed 481 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of
+/- 4.4 percentage points. 6.0 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of who they will
support in the race.
“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” says the
poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just
outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey.
While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to come
back after falling behind a challenger in the last month.
“The fifth district is shaping up to be the most Republican leaning district in
Connecticut this year. It is the strongest district for both Tom Foley and Linda McMahon
and is also the district least likely to have a positive opinion of President Obama, by a 43-
53 margin. Murphy certainly knows how to win this district, but the national mood and
the top of the ticket may be too much to overcome.”
A poll on Connecticut’s 1st and 4th congressional districts will be released
tomorrow.
About CTCapitolReport.com
CT Capitol Report is published and edited by veteran political professional Tom
Dudchik. Since its launch in 2009 its readership has grown exponentially and it is widely
considered the most comprehensive website for Connecticut political news.
With offices in Hamden, CT and Los Angeles, CA, Merriman River Group is a full
service consulting organization specializing in election supervision and administration,
public opinion research, and communication services. In 2010, Merriman River Group
launched their NexGen IVR polling system, which offers professional grade polling and
analysis with reduced costs and faster completion time. NexGen IVR has been used in
public and private polling from New England to Hawaii this year, with accuracy far
exceeding traditional polling methods. For more information on Merriman River Group,
please visit www.merrimanriver.com.
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CT 5th Congressional District
Frequency Percent
Congress:Unsure 29 6.0
Gender
Gender:Not
Gender:female Gender:male Reported Total
Congress:Unsure Count 21 6 2 29
Congress
Party
3.
1. 2. Party:Independe 99. Party:Not
Party:Democrat Party:Republican nt 9. Party:Unsure Reported
Congress:Unsure Count 7 7 8 2 5
Tea Party
9. 99.TeaParty:Not
1. TeaParty:Yes 2. TeaParty:No TeaParty:Unsure Reported Total
Congress:Unsure Count 1 14 9 5 29
Obama
1. 2. 3. 4.
Obama:Approve Obama:Approve Obama:Disappro Obama:Disappro 9.
strongly somewhat ve somewhat ve strongly Obama:Unsure Total
Congress:Unsure Count 3 6 6 6 8
Obama_Short
Obama:Disapprov
Obama:Approve e Obama:Unsure Total
Congress:Unsure Count 9 12 8 29
Congress
2. Obama:Approve Count 15 51 6 72
somewhat
% within Congress 6.3% 23.9% 20.7% 15.0%
3. Obama:Disapprove Count 26 25 6 57
somewhat
% within Congress 10.9% 11.7% 20.7% 11.9%
9. Obama:Unsure Count 1 4 8 13
Congress
Obama:Unsure Count 1 4 8 13