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DANIEL PEÑ

PROBLEM 3. DECISION TRE

Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 30 years, must decide if it manufa
on the demand of the product. The table sh

Table 3. Decision process for the commercialization of the product


States of nature
Decision alternative
Demand low-utility Demand low average-utility
Manufacture 85 87
Subcontrac 78 81
Buy 82 85
Lease 83 85
Outsource 85 87
Probabilities ∑=1 0.3 0.22

i. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
j. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) co

P(F/low) = 0,22 P(D/low) = 0,78


P(F/low average) = 0,4 P(D/ low average) = 0,6
P(F/high medium) = 0,33 P(D/ high medium) = 0,67
P(F/high) = 0,42 P(D/high) = 0,58

k. What is the expected value of market research information?


l. What is the efficiency of the information?

DECISIONS TREE
PROBABILITY
0.3
0.22
MANUFACTURE NODE 2
0.25
0.23
0.3
0.22
SUBCONTRAC NODE 3
0.25
0.23
0.3
0.22
U856 BUY NODE 4
0.25
0.23
0.3
0.22
LEASE NODE 5
0.25
0.23
0.3
0.22
OUTSOURCE NODE 6
0.25
0.23

Expected value is obtained= VEsIP


Node 1= (Max node 2 vs node 3 vs node 4 vs node 5 vs node 6)
MANOFACTURE NODE 2 89.24
SUBCONTRAC NODE 3 82.94
BUY NODE 4 85.75
LEASE NODE 5 86.28
OUTSOURCE NODE 6 88.28

TEOREMA BAYES

�(�_�∕ 〖� )= 〗
(�(�∕�_� )�(�_�))/(�(�))
P(F/ low) P(F/low average)
Probabilities ∑=1 0.3 0.22
FAVORABLE 0.22 0.4
UNFAVORABLE 0.78 0.6

FAVORABLE

CONDITIONAL
STATE OF NATURE PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(F/Sj)
PROBABILITIES P(Sj)
LOW 0.3 0.22
LOW AVERAGE 0.22 0.4
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.33
HIGH 0.23 0.42
P(F)

UNFAVORABLE

CONDITIONAL
STATE OF NATURE PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(F/Sj)
PROBABILITIES P(Sj)
LOW 0.3 0.78
LOW AVERAGE 0.22 0.6
HIGH MEDIUM 0.25 0.67
HIGH 0.23 0.58
P(F)

PROBABILITY
0.20
0.26
MANUFACTURE NODE 5
0.25
0.29
FAVORABLE
0.20
0.26
SUBCONTRAC NODE 6
0.25
0.29
0.20
0.26
BUY NODE 7
0.25
0.29
0.20
0.26
0.33 OUTSOURCE NODE 8
0.33 OUTSOURCE NODE 8
0.25
0.29
0.20
0.26
OUTSOURCE NODE 9
0.25
0.29

PROBABILITY
0.20
0.26
MANUFACTURE NODE 10
0.25
0.29
UNFAVORABLE
0.20
0.26
SUBCONTRAC NODE 11
0.25
0.29
0.20
0.26
BUY NODE 12
0.25
0.29
0.20
0.26
0.67 OUTSOURCE NODE 13
0.25
0.29
0.20
0.26
OUTSOURCE NODE 14
0.25
0.29

Value of perfect information: VEIM= l VEcIM - VEsIM l

VEcIM= 89.91 millions of dollars


VEsIM= 89.24 millions of dollars

VEIM 0.67

E= 𝑽𝑬𝑰�/𝑽𝑬𝑰� X 100
(𝟎.𝟔𝟕)/(𝟎.𝟎)
E= X 100=
EL PEÑA
EM 3. DECISION TREES, EVPI AND EVMI

market of 30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits d
on the demand of the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

ommercialization of the product


States of nature
Demand high medium-utility Demand high-utility
91 95
85 89
87 90
87 91
89 93
0.25 0.23

mate of the

ort a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

SIONS TREE
DEMAND
85 25.5
87 19.14
89.24
91 22.75
95 21.85
78 23.4
81 17.82
82.94
85 21.25
89 20.47
82 24.6
85 18.7
85.75
87 21.75
90 20.7
83 24.9
85 18.7
86.28
87 21.75
91 20.93
85 25.5
87 19.14
88.28
89 22.25
93 21.39

VEIP= [VEcIP - VEsIP]


THE BEST DECISION 89.24 MILLONS OF DOLARS
Expected value with perfect information
Expected value without perfect information

VEcIP= (0,3)*85+(0,22)*87+(0.25)*91+(0,23)*95
VEcIP = 89.24 millions of dollars

VEIP= [89.24 - 89.24] = 0

EMA BAYES

P(F/low) = 0,22 P(D/low) = 0,78


P(F/low average) = 0,4 P(D/ low average) = 0.6
P(F/high medium) = 0,33 P(D/ high medium) = 0,67
P(F/high) = 0,42 P(D/high) = 0,58
P(F/high medium) P(F/high)
0.25 0.23
0.33 0.42
0.67 0.58

BLE

JOINT PROBABILITIES P(F n LATER


Sj) PROBABILITIES
P(Sj/F)
0.07 0.20
0.09 0.26
0.08 0.25
0.10 0.29
0.33

RABLE

JOINT PROBABILITIES P(F n LATER


Sj) PROBABILITIES
P(Sj/F)
0.23 0.35
0.13 0.20
0.17 0.25
0.13 0.20
0.67

DEMAND
85 16.84
87 22.98
89.91 29.95
91 22.54
95 27.55
78 15.45
81 21.40
83.72
85 21.05
89 25.81
82 16.25
85 22.46
86.35
87 21.55
90 26.10
83 16.45
85 22.46
86.84
86.84
87 21.55
91 26.39
85 16.84
87 22.98
88.84
89 22.04
93 26.97

DEMAND
85 16.84
87 22.98
89.91 59.96
91 22.54
95 27.55
78 15.45
81 21.40
83.72
85 21.05
89 25.81
82 16.25
85 22.46
86.35
87 21.55
90 26.10
83 16.45
85 22.46
86.84
87 21.55
91 26.39
85 16.84
87 22.98
88.84
89 22.04
93 26.97
EFFICIENCY OF 0%
chase from an external supplier. The profits depend
cIP - VEsIP]

*87+(0.25)*91+(0,23)*95
millions of dollars

4 - 89.24] = 0
89.91

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