You are on page 1of 13

Statistical Publications

Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Volume 53 No 4 - 2009

Market Review
Analytical Focus
World Merchant Fleet
World Tanker Market
World Bulk Carrier Market
World Container and General Cargo Shipping
World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns
World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/
ISL Cruise Fleet Register
World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders
Major Shipping Nations
World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic

Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics


Abbreviations/Symbols www.isl.org

Abbreviations n.a. Not available


NDRF National Defence Reserve Fleet
ARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range
n.e.c. Not elsewhere classified
AWES Association of West European Shipbuilders
neg. Negligible
b/d Barrels per day
NIS Norwegian International Ship Register
BHP Brake horsepower
no Number
cgt Compensated gross tonnage
NODC Non-oil Producing Developing Countries
cif Cost, insurance, freight
nrt Net register tonnage
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
nt Net tonnage
COD Country of Domicile
NWE,NW Northwest Europe
CPE Centrally-planned Economies
o.a. Over all
CPI Consumer price index
OBO Ore/bulk/oil carrier
cST Centi Stokes
OECD Organization for Economic
cu.m Cubic metres (also m3) Cooperation and Development
DB Double bottom O/O Ore/oil carrier
DC Developing Countries OPEC Organization of Petroleum
DH Double hull Exporting Countries
DIS Danish International Ship Register OR Ordinary Register
DME Developed market economies P/C Products carrier
DS Double sides Pr/OBO Product/ore-bulk-oil carrier
dwt Deadweight tons r Revised
d/y Day/year Ro/ro Roll-on/roll-off
ECB European Central Bank RT Revenue ton
EMEs Emerging Market Economies SAR Special administration region
EU European Union SBT Ship segregated ballast tanks
FY Fiscal year SDR Special drawing rights
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization SSMR ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review
of the United Nations ST Short ton
fio Free in and out t Ton/tonne
fob Free on board TB Tug/barge
FT Freight tons TEU Twenty feet equivalent unit
ft Foot TKB Tanker barge
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade T/S Tanker/steam
gt Gross tonnage T/T Tanker/turbine
HP Horsepower ULCC Ultra large crude carrier
HT Harbour ton USAC United States Atlantic Coast
ibf Intermediate bunker fuel USD US Dollar
IEA International Energy Agency VLCC Very large crude carrier
IMF International Monetary Fund WS Worldscale
IMO International Maritime Organization WTO World Trade Organization
in. Inch YR, YRS Year, Years
ITF International Transport Workers Federation
km Kilometre
loa Length overall
Symbols
lbs Pounds
... Data not available
LDT Light displacement tons
- Nil
LDC Less Developed Countries
0/0.0 Less than half of unit employed
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
1995-2004 From 1995 to 2004 inclusive
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2002/03 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginning
LR/Fairplay Lloyd’s Register - Fairplay
in 2002 and terminating in 2003
LT Long ton
m Metre
Billions means a thousand million
mbd Million barrel per day
Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totals
mdo Marine diesel oil because of rounding
MED Mediterranean
MfA Marine fishing area
mill Million
M/T Motor tanker
MT Metric tons
mtd per ton fob delivered
mth Month
For further explanation (e.g. Glossary)
mtw Per ton ex wharf
please visit: www.isl.org/infoline

2 SSMR April 2009


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

This “short comment” is an excerpt from the “Analytical Comment” published in the
ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 4-2010.

The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the “analytical focus”
and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).
For more information compare attached “contents”

If you are interested in the complete publication covering all


details (tables & figures), please contact our subscription
department subscription@isl.org or you can order it via our
webshop www.isl.org/shop
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,
photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the
editors.
ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL
Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the “Short
Comment”) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their
consequences.

SSMR April 2010


Contents – Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org

Page
ISL Comment – World Bulk Carrier Market 5-14

(1) WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET


1.1 Bulk Carrier Fleet Development ............................................................................... 5
1.2 Age Profile of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ................................................................. 5
1.3 Size Dimensions of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ......................................................... 6
1.4 Ownership Patterns of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ..................................................... 7

(2) FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET


2.1 Major Dry Bulk Commodities – Production, Consumption and Trade Patterns .................. 8
2.2 Global Insight – Major Bulk Commodities Outlook Until 2012 ........................................ 9
2.3 Seaborne Bulk Trade Development .......................................................................... 10
2.4 Dry Bulk Port Traffic – Regional Highlights 2010 ......................................................... 10
2.5 Dry Bulk Market – Freight Rates and Prices ............................................................... 12

(3) FUTURE BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY


3 Future Bulk Carrier Tonnage Supply ......................................................................... 13

(4) THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK CARRIERS


4.1 New Orders and Order Book Development ................................................................. 14
4.2 Leading Shipbuilding Countries ................................................................................ 15

SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT


Tab. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type 2006 and 2010 ........................................................ 5
Tab. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Reductions by Type 2004 – 2009 ............................ 5
Tab. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Additions (Newbuildings) by Type 2006-2009 ........................ 6
Tab. 4 World Bulk Carrier Fleet and Order Book by Size 2010 ................................................ 6
Tab. 5 Largest Bulk Carriers by Type 2010 ......................................................................... 6
Tab. 6 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Top Registered Flags 2006 and 2010 .................................... 7
Tab. 7 World Bulk Carrier Tonnage Registered for Panama and Hong Kong According to Countries of
Domicile 2006, 2009 and 2010 ................................................................................ 7
Tab. 8 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Controlled Tonnage of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 ....... 8
Tab. 9 World Seaborne Foreign Trade by Major Bulk Commodities and Regions 2002 – 2007
and Outlook 2012 .................................................................................................. 10
Tab. 10 World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade by Major Commodities 2007 and
Average Growth Rates 1991-2007 ............................................................................ 10
Tab. 11 Dry Bulk Traffic of Major Ports by Exporting and Importing Areas 1997-2007 .................. 11
Tab. 12 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s Largest Dry Bulk Ports by Port
Regions 2004-2009 .................................................................................................. 12
Tab. 13 Coal and Iron Ore Imports of Major European Ports 2004-2009 .................................... 12
Tab. 14 Rate Level for Benchmark Bulk Carrier Trades 12/2007-12/2009 and 03/2010 ............... 13
Tab. 15 Demolition and Contracting Prices of Capesize Bulk Carriers 1998 - 2009 ....................... 13
Tab. 16 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type 2006 – 2010 ................................................... 14
Tab. 17 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Major Countries of Build 2006 and 2010 ..................... 15
Tab. 18 Bulk Carrier Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Major Countries of Build 2010 ................ 15

FIGURES - COMMENT

Fig. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Annual Tonnage Changes 1991- 2010 .................................. 5
Fig. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1994 – 2009 .................... 5
Fig. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Size Development 1991 – 2010 ........................................... 6
Fig. 4 Bulk Carrier Fleet - Tonnage Development of Major Shipping Nations 2006-2010 ............ 8
Fig. 5 World Steel Production by Area 1994-2006 ................................................................ 8
Fig. 6 Overview on Major Commodity Markets 1997-2006 .................................................... 9
Fig. 7 World Seaborne Trade of Major Dry Bulk Commodities 1980 – 2009 .............................. 10
Fig. 8 World Seaborne Trade of Iron Ore and Coal by Major Regions/Countries 2002-2002 ........ 11
Fig. 9 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s largest Dry Bulk Ports
by Port Regions 2004-2009 ..................................................................................... 12
Fig. 10 Development of Dry Bulk Voyage Rates on the Tubarao to China Trade
January 2002 – March 2010 .................................................................................... 13
Fig. 11 Monthly Development of Bulk Indices 2002-2010 ....................................................... 13
Fig. 12 World Bulk Carrier Fleet - Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Fleet 1998-2010 14
Fig. 13 Bulk Carrier Fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, Quarterly 2001 – 2010 ............ 14
Fig. 14 World Bulk Carrier Order Book, Quarterly 2002 – 2010 ............................................... 14

15-18
ISL InfoLine Special – World Bulk Carrier Market

SSMR April 2010 3


ISL Statistical Tables– World Bulk Carrier Market 19-42
(1) TOTAL BULK CARRIER FLEET
1.1 Key Figures on World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Size Class 2010 ............................ 19
1.2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Development by Type 2006 - 2010 ......................................... 20
1.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Ownership Patterns ..................................................... 21
1.3.1 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Major Flags 2009 and 2010 ................................................ 21
1.3.2 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Country of Domicile 2010 ................................................... 22
1.3.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of Domicile
According to Country Groups and Type 2006 and 2010 ................................................ 23
1.3.4 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of Domicile
According to Regions and Type 2006 and 2010 .......................................................... 24
1.3.5 Total Bulk Carriers by Country Groups and Division of Age 2010 ................................... 25
1.3.6 Total Bulk Carriers Additions to Fleet by Top Countries of Domicile During 2006 - 2009 .... 25
1.3.7 Total Bulk Carriers by Size Class and Division of Age and Deliveries up to 2011 .............. 26
1.3.8 Total Bulk Carriers Fleet - Size Dimensions 2010 ........................................................ 26
1.4 Broken-up Bulk Carriers ........................................................................................ 27
1.4.1 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Type January 1998 - December 2009 ................................. 27
1.4.2 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Major Flags 1998 - 2009 ................................................... 27
1.4.3 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Size Class 1998 - 2009 ..................................................... 27

(2) BULK MARKET -


SHIPPING COSTS AND PRICES
2.1 Second Hand Prices of Bulk Carriers, Average Values 1999 - 2009 ................................ 28
2.2 Contracting Prices for Newbuildings 1999 - 2009 ........................................................ 28
2.3 Demolition prices 1999 - 2009 ................................................................................. 28

(3) BULK MARKET -


COMMODITIES, SEABORNE TRADE, PORTS
COMMODITIES
3.1 Coal Production and Consumption ......................................................................... 29
3.1.1 World Coal Production by Country 1998 - 2007 .......................................................... 29
3.1.2 World Coal Consumption by Country 1998- 2007 ........................................................ 30
3.2 World Iron and Steel Production ........................................................................... 31
3.2.1 World Pig Iron Production by Selected Countries 1990, 2002 - 2007 .............................. 31
3.2.2 World Crude Steel Production by Country 1998 - 2007 ................................................ 32
3.3 World Total Grain Production and Trade ............................................................... 33
3.3.1 Production of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002 - 2009 ............................... 34
3.3.2 Import of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and
Forecast for 2009/2010 .......................................................................................... 34
3.3.3 Export of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and
Forecast for 2009/2010 .......................................................................................... 34

SEABORNE TRADE
3.4 Seaborne Coal Trade ............................................................................................. 35
3.5 Seaborne Iron Ore Trade ....................................................................................... 35
3.6 Seaborne Grain Trade ............................................................................................ 35

PORTS
3.7 World Dry Bulk Ports ............................................................................................. 36
3.7.1 Selected Major World Coal Ports - Traffic 2004 - 2009 ................................................. 36
3.7.2 Selected Major World Iron Ore Ports - Traffic 2004 - 2009 ........................................... 37

(4) FUTURE
BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY- WORLD BULK CARRIER ORDER BOOK
4.1 Existing World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Major Areas of Build 2010 ........................ 38
4.2 Bulk Carrier Order Book and New Orders by Type 2010 – 2010 .................................... 39
4.3 Order Book by Major Countries of Build and Type 2010 ............................................... 39
4.4 Bulk Carriers on Order by Type and Delivery Schedule 2010 ....................................... 40
4.5 Bulk Carriers on Order by Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule 2010 ....................... 40
4.6 Bulk Carriers on Order by Ship Yard and Delivery Schedule 2010 .................................. 40
4.7 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and
Major Countries of Build 2002 - 2009 ....................................................................... 41
4.8 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and
Major Countries of Domicile 2002 - 2009 ................................................................... 42

4 SSMR April 2010


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

1 WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET 2009/2010 Fig. 1: World bulk carrier fleet – annual tonnage changes as of
January 1st, 1991-2010 (dwt- per cent)
The year 2009 undoubtedly was a difficult year for the
bulk industry, but it was not as bad as one would have 10.0 8.9
expected at the turn of the year. While markets 8.0 7.1 7.2
6.4 6.3
plummeted in early 2009, there soon were signs of relief 5.8
6.0 4.7 4.7
as China’s demand for ore and coal reached record
4.0
3.5 3.1 3.4 3.7
amounts. 2.4 2.0 1.6
1.7
Though charter rates recovered slightly, there is still a 2.0
0.4 0.0
considerable overcapacity in the market. Despite 0.0
cancellations of bulk carrier orders and postponements of -2.0 -1.3 -1.6
delivery dates, a total of 568 vessels with 43 mill dwt 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
entered the fleet, about 38 % less than anticipated, but still
by far the highest addition to the fleet during one year and
twice as much as in the preceding years. Thanks to the Fig. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – tonnage additions and reductions
increase in demand from China and increased scrapping, 1994-2009 (mill dwt)
much of the capacity could be absorbed, and shipyards
45
even recorded an increasing number of new orders during Additions Reductions
40
the second half of 2009 after two quarters with very little
35
ordering activity.
30
It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of 2010 3,088 mill dwt
25
bulks with 273 mill dwt were still on order, corresponding 20
to 60.4 per cent of the total world bulk carrier fleet. 15
10
1.1 Bulk carrier fleet development 5
As of January 1st, 2010, the total bulk carrier fleet for ships 0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
of 300 gt and over was composed of 7,772 bulk carriers
including 78 Ore/Bulk/Oil carriers (OBOs). The total Tab. 1: World bulk carrier fleet by type as of January 1st, 2006 and
bulk carrier fleet increased by 8.9 per cent in 2009. 2010

At the beginning of 2010, the following “Special types”, 2006 2010 Av. growth Average size
mill mill rate '06-'10 (1000 dwt)
can be distinguished: Ship type No dwt No dwt No dwt 2006 2010
%-share %-share av. ship Bulk carriers 6494 333.6 7694 447.2 4.3 7.6 51.4 58.1
Ship Type No of No 1000 dwt of dwt size (dwt) OBO carriers 137 8.1 78 4.0 -13.1 -16.2 59.0 51.2
Total 6631 341.7 7772 451.2 4.0 7.2 51.5 58.1
Bulk carrier
of which Bulk carrier 6465 83.2 405916 90.0 62787
Ore carrier 124 1.6 25755 5.7 207699
Wood chips carrier 163 2.1 7802 1.7 47865 Tab. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – tonnage reductions by type 2005-
Self discharging 93 1.2 3644 0.8 39180 2009
Cement carrier 407 5.2 2768 0.6 6800
Aggregates carrier 373 4.8 491 0.1 1318 2005 2008 2009 dwt-% average
Others 69 0.9 851 0.2 12335 Ship type No mill No of mill No mill change growth
OBO carrier dwt ships dwt dwt '08/'09 % '05-'09
of which Bulk/Oil carriers 39 0.5 3544 0.8 90872 Bulk carriers 49 1.7 76 3.3 282 11.6 246.0 60.7
Ore/Oil carriers 39 0.5 452 0.1 11585 OBO carriers 2 0.3 - - 4 0.2 - -6.9
Total Bulk and Total 51 2.0 76 3.3 286 11.8 252.7 55.1
OBO carriers 7772 100.0 451223 100.0 58057

Compared with results at the beginning of 2009, the total


world bulk fleet increased by about 36.8 mill dwt to 451
mill dwt. In addition, around 6 mill dwt of converted Sources:
tankers entered the bulk carrier fleet. Thus, the bulk If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning
the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and order book
carrier fleet continued its growth path since 2004. information is “ISL based on IHS Fairplay”, please quote accordingly. In
Fleet development trends can be summarised as follows: general merchant fleet data refer to ships of 300 gt and over.

ƒ Deliveries of new bulk tonnage amounted to 43.2 Explanatory notes:


mill dwt during 2009 against 22.7 mill dwt a year The “total bulk carrier fleet” includes Bulk carriers and Ore/Bulk/Oil
carriers (OBOs). The specification of sub-types is based on the
before. Actual, this increase represented 4.5 per cent classification provided by IHS Fairplay. Bulk carriers: include – Bulk
of all bulk carriers in service and 5.5 per cent of the carriers, ore carriers and other bulk carriers like: Aggregates carriers,
Cement carriers, Wood chip carriers, Urea carriers, Limestone carriers
deadweight tonnage of the active bulk fleet. Alumina carriers, Refined sugar carriers, Powder carriers. OBO carriers
ƒ The average ship size of the new deliveries in 2009 include Bulk/oil carriers and Ore/oil carriers.
was about 76,500 dwt.
Tonnage additions/reductions:
ƒ In 2009, around 6 mill dwt of oil tanker tonnage Additions (newbuildings) entering the fleet refer to the fleet data of the
were converted to bulk carriers. following year. Reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of
the respective year.

SSMR April 2010 1


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

ƒ 286 bulkers with 11.8 mill dwt were sold to breakers, Tab. 3: World bulk carrier fleet – additions (newbuildings) by type
an increase of 253 per cent compared to 2008. 2005-2009

ƒ Between 2006 and 2010, the bulk carrier fleet 2005 2008 2009 dwt-% average
expanded on average by 7.2 per cent per year in Ship type No mill No mill No mill dwt change growth
dwt dwt dwt %- '08/'09 % '06-'09
terms of deadweight tonnage and the number of
Bulk carriers 319 24.0 333 22.7 567 42.8 99.3 89.0 15.6
carriers by 4.1 per cent.
OBO carriers - - - - 1 0.3 0.7 - -
ƒ During the period 2005-2009, 1,844 bulkers with 138 Total 319 24.0 333 22.7 568 43.2 100.0 90.5 21.7
mill dwt were added to the trading fleet. In the same
period, only 510 bulk carriers with 20.6 mill dwt
were reported to be broken-up, the majority in 2009. Fig. 3: World bulk carrier fleet – size development as of January 1st,
1990- 2009 (average dwt)
1.2 Age profile of the world bulk carrier fleet 60000
At the beginning of 2010, the average age of all bulk
carriers was 15.3 years compared to 15.7 years at the 55000

av. dwt size


beginning of 2006.
50000
The age profile of the total bulk carrier fleet by year of
build showed the following structure: 45000
ƒ 1,844 bulk carriers equal to 30.7 per cent of the bulk
tonnage came into service within the last 5 years. 40000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
ƒ 1,886 bulkers equal to 14.0 per cent of the total bulk
fleet capacity were in service for more than 25 years.
Tab. 4: Largest bulk carriers by type as of January 1st, 2009
1.3 Size dimensions of the world bulk carrier fleet Year Country
Ship of Reg. of
The average size of bulk carriers increased from 46,500 Ship name type dwt gt draught build flag domicile
dwt in 1990 to 58,000 dwt at the beginning of 2010. Ore China,
Looking at the new deliveries, there is a trend to larger BERGE STAHL carrier 364767 175720 23.0 1986 Norway PR of
units, at least 312 Capesize carriers entering the fleet in the A WHALE OBO 318700 161500 22.3 2009 Liberia Taiwan
past five years were attributable to size classes above On order:
150,000 dwt. Altogether, the bulk carrier fleet comprised RONGSHENG Ore
SHIPBUILDING carrier 400000 199600 23.0 2012 Brazil Brazil
811 of these very large units.
The order book also container the largest bulk carrier ever
built: an ore carrier with 400,000 dwt and a draught of 23
m. It is currently scheduled for delivery in 2012.
Key figures on the size structure of the world bulk carrier
fleet indicate that at the beginning of 2010:
Explanatory note – Bulk carrier dwt-size grouping
ƒ 3,050 bulk carriers with 70.0 mill dwt were ƒ Handysize: 10,000 - 39,999 dwt
attributable to Handysize carriers up to 40,000 dwt ƒ Handymax: 40,000 - 49,999 dwt
ƒ Supramax: 50,000 –59,999 dwt
(incl. “mini bulkers”). The majority of these carriers ƒ Panamax: 60,000 - 79,999 dwt
is trading for more than 20 years. ƒ Capesize: >= 80,000 dwt

ƒ 838 bulk carriers with 37.8 mill dwt (8.4 per cent)
Statistical details “ World bulk carrier fleet”
belonged to the Handymax class. ƒ Key figures p. 21/22
ƒ 851 bulk carriers with 46.1 mill dwt were attributable ƒ Division of age and type p. 27, 28
ƒ Size class and type p. 27
to the “new” Supramax size class (50,000–59,999 ƒ Summer draught, length and breadth p. 28
dwt). At the beginning of 2010, these “newcomers”
had an average age of only 5.2 years Explanatory note
Major Open Registries
ƒ 1,382 bulk carriers were attributable to the Panamax Countries permitting the registration of ships owned by non-residents.
size segment. With 99.3 mill dwt they had a share of In general, ISL figures on open registry flags are restricted to the top
ten major flags: Panama, Liberia, Bahamas, Malta, Marshall Islands,
22.0 per cent of the total bulk tonnage. Cyprus, St. Vincent, Antigua & Barbuda, Bermuda and Cayman
ƒ 1,188 bulk carriers on order and 1253 trading vessels Islands. (01.01.2008).
Country of registration and country of domicile
belong to the Capesize segment (>80,000 dwt). Country of registration indicates the country of the port of registry of a
country (flag). The country of domicile indicates where the controlling
interest of the fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This
1.4 Ownership patterns of the world bulk carrier information is applicable to merchant vessels of 1000 gt and above.
fleet As of January 1st, 2009, the country of domicile information was
attributable to 7,078 bulk carriers with 414 mill dwt, whereas for 448
World bulk carrier fleet by flag carriers with 20.9 mill dwt this information is unknown.

Large shares of the bulk carrier fleet are attributable to ISL Market Review
open registry flags. As of January 1st, 2010, 277 mill dwt, Includes also specific up-dates (quarterly) of the merchant fleet with
aggregates for all ship types p.51
equal to 61.3 per cent of the total bulk carrier tonnage,
were registered for the top ten open registry flags (“Major

2 SSMR April 2010


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

open registries”). Between 2006 and 2010, the yearly Fig. 4: Bulk carrier fleet – tonnage development of major shipping
average tonnage growth of these flags reached 8.6 per cent nations (controlled tonnage) as of January 1st, 2006-2010
(this represents a growth of 78 mill dwt in 5 years). (dwt – yearly average growth rate)
About 50 per cent of the registered bulk tonnage
120.0
registered in Panama belonged to Japanese and 11 per Japan
cent to Chinese ship owners. Hong Kong, Chinese and Greece
100.0
Japanese owners contributed most to the bulk fleet
80.0
registered in Hong Kong. The Greek ship owners control China, PR of

mill dwt 2009


large bulk tonnage shares of the bulk fleet registered in 60.0
Cyprus, Malta and the Bahamas. 40.0
Hong Kong (SAR) Korea, Rep. of
World bulk carrier fleet by country of domicile 20.0

At the beginning of 2010, almost three ships out of four 0.0


were not registered in the country of domicile, but sailing -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0
average annual dwt growth 2006- 2010 in %
under a foreign flag.
Ships of 1,000 gt and over
Between 2006 and 2010, the bulk carrier tonnage
registered under foreign flags increased yearly on average Fig. 5: World steel production by area 1997-2009
by 7.9 per cent, a much higher pace than the total bulk
1400 Others CIS
carrier fleet. Accordingly, the share of flagged-out ships
increased from 70.9 per cent to 74.0 per cent within five 1200 North America EU-15
years, though there was a slight decrease compared with 1000 Asia
2009 when 74.5 per cent of the bulk fleet sailed under
mill tonnes

800
foreign flag.
600
2 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET 400
2007/2008
200

2.1 Major dry bulk commodities – production, 0

consumption and trade patterns 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
ISL, based on International Iron and Steel Institute
Factors influencing the dry bulk market are largely related
to the world steel production, which is one of the major Fig. 6: Overview on major commodity markets 1996-2009 (Tonne-
drivers for the dry bulk market. China is by far the largest based Index 1996 = 100)
steel producer, the largest iron ore producing country and
due to the increasing imports of iron ore also increasingly 220 220

dominating the international iron ore trade. coal consumption coal production
200 200
Recent figures provided by the International Iron and China
China

Steel Institute (IISI) indicate that China had a share of 180


1.6 OECD 180 OECD

46.6 per cent in world steel production in 2009. China’s 160 World World
160
average yearly production growth rate in the period 2000-
2009 was 18.1 per cent. 140 140

Latin America (primarily Brazil) is the world’s leading 120 120


export region for iron ore, directly followed by Australia.
Their export volumes in 2009 reached 268 mill tonnes and 100 100
242 mill tonnes, respectively.
80
80
Besides iron ore trade also Chinese coal trading is 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
increasingly relevant for the world bulk market. Coal 1200
420
production and consumption experienced a strong iron ore imports
iron ore production
increase. With 42.5 per cent in 2008 China is by far the 1000 370
China China
world’s largest coal producer.
OECD 320 Australia
800
According to the latest World Market and Trade Archives Brazil
World
(January 2010) of the US Department of Agriculture, grain 600
270
World
trade is forecast to reach 258.7 mill tonnes in 2009/2010 220
(February/March), some 15 mill tonnes less than in the 400
previous crop year. Nonetheless it is expected that “the 170

total grain area is unlikely to increase because of strong 200


120
competition from oilseeds and other crops”.
0
70
2.2 Trade in major bulk commodities 1996-2009 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
and outlook until 2012 ISL, based on WTO, World Trade Statistics 2010

SSMR April 2010 3


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

During the past decade, the development of seaborne Tab. 5: Dry bulk traffic of major ports by exporting and
importing Areas (port regions) 1998-2008 (mill
bulk trade was dominated by China’s soaring demand for
tonnes, per cent)
raw materials.
No average an.
World seaborne iron ore trade doubled between 2001 and of growth in % % share of total
2008 from 557 million tonnes in 2001 to 1.1 billion tonnes Port regions (a) Ports 98-03 03-08 1998 2008
in 2008. Almost three quarters of this growth (400 million Exporting areas 50 4.9 5.6 100.0 100.0
tonnes) were attributable to Chinese imports. Though Oceania 18 5.1 5.8 53.0 53.9
South America 19 5.7 7.1 29.2 32.5
nearby Australia is the most important exporter for China,
Africa 13 3.1 1.8 17.8 13.6
South American iron ore was also used to cover demand. Importing Areas 67 2.5 3.2 100.0 100.0
North Range/UK 25 0.6 1.7 32.2 27.2
2.3 Dry bulk port traffic – regional highlights Far East 14 5.3 4.2 43.7 52.2
US 14 -2.8 4.6 17.6 14.3
2008/2009 South East Asia 14 5.3 -0.2 6.6 6.3
The development of seaborne trade in major bulk (a) South East Asia: India, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore,
commodities is mirrored in the development of the major Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines; North Range: 10 major North
Range ports (Europe)
exporting and importing ports’ development. ISL Port Data Base 2010
Between 1998 and 2008, the world’s largest ports’ dry bulk
traffic grew faster than in preceding periods. Due to
strong Chinese demand for iron ore and, more recently, Tab. 6: Coal and iron ore traffic of major ports by region 2005-
for coal, Australian and Brazilian ports of loading were 2009 (mill tonnes)
increasingly busy, causing congestion and long waiting Coal Iron Ore
times in the ports. Between 1998 and 2003, dry bulk mill t Growth rate mill t Growth rate
shipments increased by 4.9 per cent per year on average, 2009 2009/08 av. 09/05 2009 2009/08 av. 09/05
accelerating to 5.6 per cent between 2003 and 2008. Asia 245 -7.2 6.7 98 -16.5 -3.2
Oceania 235 -0.8 3.7 270 13.9 8.9
Europe 43 -14.6 -1.6 68 9.6 2.3
Leading exporting bulk ports America 94 -14.6 2.7 264 -10.3 2.8
The world’s largest dry bulk port, the port of Africa 73 -8.6 -2.4 55 25.1 14.5
Qinhuangdao, handled 206.3 mill tonnes of coal in 2009, Based on ports listed in table 3.7.1 and 3.7.2 on pages 36/37.
down 5.7 per cent from 2008. While demand has ISL Port Data Base 2010
weakened in most Asian importing countries, China’s coal
consumption actually increased in 2009. Hence, domestic
demand for coal shipments is likely to have dampened the
impact of decreasing exports.
The Australian ports of Newcastle, Hay Point and
SSMR Guide to relevant market information:
Gladstone together loaded 235 mill tonnes of coal in the ƒ Fearnleys Review, Fearnleys Monthly: www.fearnleys.com
fiscal year ending June 2009, approximately the same ƒ Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com
amount as in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, the increasing ƒ Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:
www.brs-paris.com
demand from the Chinese economy was strong enough to ƒ ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2009
compensate the losses in other importing countries. ƒ Esso – Oeldorado: www.esso.ch
ƒ BP – Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com
The Chinese demand for raw materials also helped ƒ EIA Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov
ƒ International Grains Council: www.igc.org.uk
Australian iron ore ports to sustain and even expand their
cargo traffic. In the fiscal year 2008/2009, combined iron IHS Global Insight: World Trade Service
ore shipments in Port Hedland and Dampier grew by 13.9 IHS Global Insight's World Trade Service provides clients with the most
comprehensive view of international trading markets and
per cent to 270 mill tonnes. The Brazilian iron ore commodities. Forecasts are updated on a quarterly schedule and are
exports, by contrast, fell sharply. Tubarao and Sepetiba, delivered electronically via the Internet.
ƒ Exports by Country/Region with Trade Partner Regions/Countries
the most important ports for EU steel producers, faced a ƒ Imports by Country/Region from Trade Partner Regions/Countries
decline of 15.0 per cent to 166 mill tonnes. ƒ Real Value of Trade and Nominal Value of Trade
ƒ History for Total Value Data: since 1980.
Traffic rebound 2009/2010 ƒ History for Value by Volume: since 1995.

The quarterly development of bulk traffic of major ISL Port Data Base
The ISL Port Data Base contains structured, comparable data from
exporting ports reveals the impact of China’s increased 1980 onwards for approximately 400 leading world ports. This unique
demand in 2009. Iron ore exports of the three major data base is made possible by our network of port partners
Australian ports actually increased by 13.9 per cent in the throughout the world providing the broad information for our annual
ISL Port Data Base Survey. Since 2005, ports can provide their data
calendar year 2009. The record volume of 79.9 million via our online questionnaire.
tonnes loaded during the last quarter of 2009 was even 30 Cargo traffic and commodities (154 items)
per cent above the respective volume of 2008; the latter ƒ Total cargo traffic
ƒ Loading categories
had already been affected by the crisis. During the first ƒ Major bulk commodities
quarter of 2010, traffic was almost 30 per cent higher than ƒ Cargo traffic by continents
in 2008, i.e. before the crisis. Container traffic by continent (55 items)
ƒ TEU (laden/empty)
In Brazilian ports, the slump in Europe, in Japan and in ƒ Containerised cargo (tons)
ƒ Degree of containerisation
South Korea more than offset the increasing demand

4 SSMR April 2010


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

from China. In total, Brazilian iron ore exports fell by 5.6


per cent in 2009, while China gained importance as a Fig. 7: Quarterly iron ore and coal traffic of major exporting ports by
regions 2009-2010 (1st quarter)
partner country. By early 2010, volumes again exceeded
those handled before the crisis as European imports were Iron ore
also picking up again. 40.0

growth over same quarter 2008


30.0
2.4 Dry bulk market – freight rates and prices
20.0
Time charter rates 10.0
Dry bulk rates are an impressive mirror of the global 0.0
economy. During the first half of 2008, when bulk rates -10.0
were at all time highs, the world economy was dazzling. -20.0
One year later, when rates hit rock bottom, world trade
-30.0
had come to a screeching halt. Rates actually recovered
2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1
slightly and parallel to the world economy, which is
Australia Brazil
clawing its way up from recent lows. Time charter rates Coal
for bulk carriers on benchmark trades (compare Table 12)

growth over same quarter 2008


40.0
show several ups and downs since the low peak and are
30.0
now more or less on the same level as in mid-2006. The
20.0
China trade plays an important role for the whole bulk
10.0
market and is a determining issue for trading. In this
0.0
behalf BRS (“The dry bulk market in 2010”) comments
-10.0
that “rates were kept afloat by the immense needs of
-20.0
China which increased its imports by more than 270m
-30.0
tonnes in 2009 thanks to an insatiable demand for iron
2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1
ore (+45%) and coal (+300%).”
The following charter rate developments can be Australia South Africa
highlighted: ISL Port Data Base 2010; Brazil: total exports, based on Ministry of
Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
ƒ Within one year (March 2009 versus 2010) the Baltic
Dry Index (BDI) increased from 1,615 to 2,998
Fig. 8: Development of dry bulk voyage rates on the Tubarao to
points. Thanks to the mentioned role of the Chinese China trade January 2003 – March 2009
economy, the BDI oscillates around 3000 and just 110.00
under 4000 points since mid of 2009. 100.00
90.00
ƒ The average of the daily time charters on the Pacific
80.00
Capesize routes shown in Table 13 increased by
70.00
about 28.3 per cent, from US$ 38,500 daily to US$
US$/Tonne

60.00
49,400 daily (but still less than a third of the rates 50.00
realised during the “bulk boom”). 40.00
ƒ In 2009, the daily Capesize time charter rate 30.00

recovered during the first quarter, peaked at a level 20.00


10.00
of 140,000 US$ per day in March and subsequently
0.00
dropped to around 80,000 US$/day.
01.04 01.05 01.06 01.07 01.08 01.09 01.10
ƒ The Panamax time charter on the Europe/Far East ISL based on Fearnleys
route in March reached 45,200 US$ per day, equal to
the rate level observed before the beginning of the
Fig. 9: Monthly development of bulk indices 2003-2009
“rollercoaster” of rates in 2007.
16000
All in all the values for all segments were rather volatile
Baltic Dry Index
during the second half of 2009, especially for Capesize 14000
carriers. 12000
Baltic Panmax Index

Baltic Capesize Index


10000
Demolition, second hand and contracting prices
8000
Demolition prices during the last year mirrored the offer
of redundant tonnage. Scrapping prices for a Capesize 6000
vessel stood at around US$ 300/ldt, 50 per cent lower 4000
than one year before. Broken-up bulk carrier tonnage
2000
reached a volume of 11.8 mill dwt in 2009, the highest
volume since the turn of the century. Since the beginning 0
of 2010, the level of demolition prices increased up to 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
about US$ 350 at the end of the first quarter. ISL based on Baltic Exchange
The remarkable overcapacity of bulk tonnage interferes

SSMR April 2010 5


Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org

with the development of the contacting prices for new Fig. 10: World bulk carrier fleet - share of the ordered tonnage
vessels. Whilst a new Capesize vessel nowadays costs (dwt) on the existing fleet as of January 1st, 2000-
US$ 55 mill, an equal ship necessitated an investment of 2010
80
US$ 91 mill at the end of 2008, just at the start of the
70
economic crisis. Compared with 2008 the price level in

orderbook dwt % of fleet


60
2009 decreased by 27.6 per cent.
50
40
3 THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK 30
CARRIERS/FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY 20
10
3.1 New orders and order book development 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
In 2009, ordering activities for bulk carriers were
significantly lower than in previous years. In contrast, Fig. 11: World bulk carrier fleet - new orders and broken-up
scrapping for older bulk tonnage increased extraordinarily. tonnage, quarterly 2003 – 2010 (mill dwt)
Thus, in contrast to recent years, there was a balance
between new orders and deliveries of bulk carriers. 60.0
Broken-up
50.0
The number of new contracts for bulk carriers decreased New orders

sharply. During 2009, 573 bulk carriers with 27 mill dwt 40.0
were added to the order book. Chinese shipbuilders 30.0

mill dwt
benefited from Chinese growth and have strengthened 20.0
their leading position. In 2009, Chinese shipbuilders were
10.0
by far the most active in contracting new bulk carriers. At
the same time, Chinese owners were most active in 0.0

ordering new bulk carriers. 10.0


03/II 03/IV 04/II 04/IV 05/II 05/IV 06/II 06/IV 07/II 07/IV 08/II 08/IV 09/II 09/IV
As of January 1st, 2010, the stock of ships on order
comprised 3,088 vessels with 61.1 mill cgt (273 mill dwt),
Fig. 12: World bulk carrier order book, quarterly 2003 – 2010
9.4 per cent less than one year before.
70
The order book for bulk carriers due for delivery in 2010
stood at 29.9 mill cgt, which represents half of the ordered 60

tonnage. If all these ships were delivered as scheduled, this 50


would lead to large overcapacity in the bulk carrier market. 40
mill cgt

However, it is expected that some of the orders will be


30
stretched, and there may still be further cancellations.
20
Latest figures – New orders and order book
development during 1st quarter, 2010 10

0
ƒ According to IHS Fairplay, shipbuilders reported a
03/I 04/I 05/I 06/I 07/I 08/I 09/I 10/I
staggering 108 new contracts for bulk carriers with a
total of 2 mill cgt during the first quarter of 2010.
Tab. 7: World bulk carrier order book by type as of January
ƒ As of April 1st, 2010 the total order book for bulk 1st, 2006-2010
carriers comprised 2,970 carriers with 58.2 mill cgt (256
2006 2009 2010 cgt-%
mill dwt), a decrease of nearly 5 per cent compared to Ship type No mill No mill No mill change
January figures. cgt cgt cgt '09/'10
ƒ There is still a noticeable increase in ship-breaking Bulk carriers 832 15.8 3412 296.0 3076 60.5 -79.6
OBO carriers - - 13 4.14 12 0.67 -83.8
activity: during the first quarter 2010, 42 bulk carriers Total 832 15.8 3425 300.1 3088 61.1 -79.6
with 1.6mill dwt were sold to breakers. Note: Ordered tonnage at the beginning of period

3.2 Leading shipbuilding countries Statistical details “The world bulk carrier order book”
ƒ Bulk carriers on order by type p. 39
At the beginning of 2010, 98.6 per cent of the total bulk ƒ Bulk carriers on order by type and delivery schedule p. 40
carrier tonnage on order was attributable to yards in Asia ƒ New orders by type and major countries of build p. 41
ƒ New orders by type and major countries of domicile p. 42
(Japan, China, Philippines, Korea and Viet Nam). Table 15
shows the massive predominance of the major Asian Explanatory note
shipbuilding countries, which is not only reflected in the The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by
order book at the beginning of 2010, but also in the shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working
Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate
existing world bulk carrier fleet. Only 7.7 per cent of the measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross
existing bulk carrier tonnage was not built on Asian yards. ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross
tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a
coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a
particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is
necessary to build a given ship.
The new compensated gross ton system (cgt) coefficient for a 10,000 gt
bulk carrier is 7,987 cgt.

6 SSMR April 2010


www.infoline.isl.org
infoline@isl.org

Publications & Databases ISL InfoLine is your resource of


up-to-date market information

Orders Publication services


ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review
www.isl.org/shop ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook
eMail: subscription@isl.org ISL Monthly Container Port Monitor
ISL Book Series/Textbooks
Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-38 ISL Lectures/Contributions and Presentations
Studien aus dem ISL (in German Language)
Enquiries
Databases
Fleet Databases Numerous databases used for market analyses, statistical
publications, information services and customers' enquiries.
eMail: infoline@isl.org
World Merchant Fleet Data Bases
Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-27 ISL Port Database

ISL Port Database We advise and inform fast, comprehensively


and professionally about markets, industries and businesses.
eMail: portbase@isl.org
Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-33 ISL Information Centre/Library is the leading centre for maritime
information and documentation. As a central information spot, it
has international literature and economic data at its disposal.
Information Centre/Library
Subjects
- Shipping and Ports - Transport, Logistics
The total stock of our Reference - Shipbuilding and Supply Industry - Information and
library amounts to approx. - Trade and Industry Communication
125,000 volumes, 31,000 - Systems within Logistics
monographs, 250 specialist
journals and newspapers (total Literature data base ISL-SEABASE
The literature database ISL-SEABASE serves the public with
stock approx. 61,000 volumes)
approx. 103,00 bibliographic records (state 01/2010) as an
important pool of knowledge for the industry, research and
Enquiries by science.

eMail: library@isl.org Services


- Short Information - Special Client Profiles
Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-44/46 - Investigations about Literature - Complete Text Service
and Facts (within the scope of
copyright)
Hours of business
Mo - Th 9:00 - 16:30 CET Online searches at www.isl.org/library
Fr 9:00 - 14:30 CET
www.isl.org