Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
within the
Central City Community Plan Area
TABLE OF CONTENTS
The information contained in this report has been collected from published data sources as well as interviews
with knowledgeable individuals within the telecommunications industry. This report has been prepared solely
for informational purposes. It is designed to assist the Los Angeles Housing Department in its evaluation of
infill housing development within the Central City Community Planning Area (“CCCPA”).
The information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, Capital Investment Advisors has
not independently verified it. Therefore, Capital Investment Advisors makes no representations or warranties,
express or implied, with respect to this information. Any projections contained herein represent best estimates
based on assumptions considered reasonable under the circumstances. No representations or warranties,
expressed or implied are made that actual results will conform to such projections. The contents herein have
been prepared solely for the benefit of the Los Angeles Housing Department and members of governmental
agencies with whom it is working on this housing redevelopment assessment. Other than these agencies, any
copies or reprints of all or a portion of this study require the advance consent of Capital Investment Advisors.
STUDY OBJECTIVES
BACKGROUND During the late 1990’s and through the early part of 2001, Los Angeles
experienced tremendous growth in telecommunications operations. As a result
of deregulation in 1996, the telecommunications industry benefited from a huge
influx of capital targeting the development of fiber optic networks and other high
bandwidth technologies. Sectors within the telecommunications umbrella were
growing at over 100% per year. With this explosive growth, venture capitalists
and Wall Street were funding massive investments into companies and
infrastructure. Firms like Level III and Qwest were investing billions into fiber
networks that crossed the US and connected to networks in developed countries
worldwide.
With its huge population base and billion dollar economy, Los Angeles was (and
remains) an attractive location in which to place much of this investment. A
massive end user environment combined with an existing and growing fiber optic
infrastructure in the downtown core, led to the development of over 3,000,000
square feet of telecom space by the 3rd quarter of 2000. For a market that
benefited from very little net absorption of space through the economic
prosperity of the 1990’s (Los Angeles had a vacancy rate near 20% while other
major markets around the country had vacancies of less than 5%), the sudden
influx of telecom operations was extremely noticeable. The influx of telecom
users, the rapid occupancy of space and the closing of streets daily to lay added
fiber optic loops almost created a feeling that the LA Central Business District
was being taken over by telecom.
This created challenges for city managers. While telecom and its sizeable
capital investment were beneficial to the regional economy, concerns mounted
that telecom would crowd-out normal business operations and multi-family
housing redevelopments. A vibrant city of people would be replaced by rows of
switching equipment and servers. Retailers would suffer because buildings that
could house traditional office space users or condominium conversions would no
longer be filled with people, but rather, machines.
The city became concerned about the use of ground floor retail space by
telecom tenants. This was particularly evident in the conversion of the Robinson
May building located at 600 West 7th Street into “Carrier Center - LA”. The
city believed the ground floor spaces in Carrier Center - LA would remain
available for future retail use. Instead, they became telecom floors. This
triggered a chain of events that led to development of an ordinance restricting
telecom development within the Los Angeles Central Business District and
within the downtown area’s Historic Core.
While the ordinance ultimately was not required due to the sudden and sharp
decline in demand for telecom that began in 2001, city managers remain
concerned about the potential impact of telecom in the CCCPA (please see a
map of the CCCPA on the following page). In order to better understand the
longer term influence of telecom in the CCCPA and how best to manage future
growth, the Los Angeles Housing Department has asked for a study that
evaluates telecom and its relationship to CCCPA properties, specifically those
STUDY CONTENTS Specific components of this study requested by the Los Angeles Housing
Department include a review projected growth/demand in the
telecommunications industry, an inventory of existing telecom properties, the
possible conversion of additional buildings to telecom use and a review of the
proposed LA telecom ordinance relative to ordinances approved in other cities.
Telecom Demand A review of telecom’s future influence in the CCCPA must start with an
(Section 2) overview of current growth and trends in telecom and how these factors will
drive future utilization of telecom sites in Los Angeles. The dramatic changes in
technology, the use of technology, the variable availability of private capital, and
possible government subsidization of rural infrastructure growth make most
detailed projections of demand “guesses” at best. However, there are certain
trends in the industry that, when viewed collectively, provide a “big-picture”
assessment of the future of telecom in the CCCPA. We will provide a review
of these major trends in the market.
Inventory of Having managed transactions involving the conversion of telecom properties in
Telecom Buildings the past, Capital Investment Advisors has access to an inventory of assets that
(Section 3) had been converted to telecom assets during the initial telecommunication
expansion of the late 1990’s through mid 2000. We compare this inventory to
those assets that are currently active telecom properties highlighting the fact that
the universe of assets has dramatically diminished due to lack of demand for
space. We then provide an assessment of current vacancy among telecom
properties to determine how much absorption is possible before telecom needs
and housing needs might compete for existing properties.
Telecom Ordinance The final portion of this study will analyze key concepts from the proposed
(Section 4) ordinance that were heavily negotiated between business, community and
political leaders in the downtown core. We will review the discussion of topics
that led to the LA ordinance as many of the discussion points are consistent with
questions asked of this telecom study – structural limitation issues, employee
densities within telecom operations, diesel generator pollution concerns, parking
co-utilization prospects, mixed use housing/telecom possibilities, etc. We will
compare this ordinance against other limited growth initiatives that were passed
in other cities and provide an evaluation of the most effective and balanced
approach to managing telecom.
PRELIMINARY While the remainder of the report provides background and more detailed
SUMMARY thought as to our conclusions on the numerous telecom questions raised by the
Los Angeles Housing Department, a brief summary is as follows:
1. Demand for telecom will once again develop (actually, it has never really
subsided). Demand in the second phase of expansion will be of a different focus
than demand was during the explosive first phase of growth. This second phase
of telecommunications growth will not cause substantial demand for additional
telecom installations within the CCCPA.
TELECOM DEMAND
Explosive Growth n Explosive growth was realized after the deregulation of telecommunications
in 1996 and the rapid rise of “dot.coms.”
n A November 2000 report by industry consultant Gartner Dataquest provided
the following growth estimates for the U.S. Hosting market: 1999 = $2.1
billion; 2000 = $2.8 billion; 2004 = $9.3 billion. This projection calls for a
35% compounded annual growth in hosting revenues.
n Gartner Dataquest also reported on business-to-business e-commerce.
Growth projections grow from $145 billion in 1999 to $7.29 trillion in 2004.
They project that business-to-business e-commerce will account for 7% of
global sales by 2004.
n Industry leaders installed approximately 39 million miles of fiber-optic cable
beneath railroad beds, corn fields, natural gas lines and roads. This is
enough fiber to circle the globe 1,566 times.
n Investco Capital Management, Inc. stated that during the 1998-1999
timeframe, they were receiving 5 investment offerings per day related to
telecommunications investments.
Market Crash The market crash was largely driven by private capital drying up. After the
projected growth rates were not met and profitability fell due to pricing
pressures, the private capital pulled out of the market. This caused the dot.com
fallout and a dramatic shakeup within the telecommunications industry.
n Merrill Lynch & Co. estimates that only 2.6% of fiber capacity is actually in
use. They estimate that much of the fiber will remain dark forever.
n The market report Colocation 2002 surveyed 287 colocation facilities in
TARGETED While there is no doubt that fundamental growth will continue to occur within the
telecommunications industry, the key to understanding the influence of this
_______________________________________________________________ CAPITAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS
LOS ANGELES H OUSING DEPARTMENT S ECTION 2 – P. 3
TELECOM A number of elements come into play when analyzing the future need for
M ARKET - telecom space in the CCCPA. A summary of factors leading to increased or
CONCLUSIONS decreased space needs in the Los Angeles core follow:
TELECOM INVENTORY The inventory of telecom properties in Los Angeles has changed dramatically
– from late 2000 through the first quarter of 2003. In 2000 the concern was that
LOS ANGELES every building with vacancy was targeting telecom operators as their next
tenant. This was logical as they were the source of over 1,000,000 square feet
of positive net absorption in 2000 and 2001. In a market that had suffered the
continued downsizing of large tenants due to departure or takeover (examples
include First Interstate Bank, Arco, and Security Pacific Bank) and was stuck in
a holding pattern of 20% vacancies, telecom was viewed as a savior. Everyone
landlord wanted to develop the next One Wilshire.
Summary - Within this section of the study, we will review properties once
considered telecom assets, the current inventory of telecom assets and the most
likely scenario for future telecom expansion in Los Angeles based properties.
As a summary to our views on the need for additional telecom space, we believe
that the exiting supply of telecom ready properties will be able to accommodate
any expansion in telecom space requirements over the next 10 years and that
additional telecom conversions will not be necessary.
TELECOM INVENTORYThe following section provides an inventory of assets that had developed the
necessary infrastructure to house telecom tenants. We provide both the total
size of the asset as well as that portion of the asset that we estimate can
accommodate telecom occupancy. The later portion of this section provides
estimates for current occupancy of active telecom properties.
As the table shows, there was initially over 3.6 million square feet of telecom
space either available or planned in downtown properties totaling nearly 7 million
square feet in aggregate size.
Active Telecom The current occupancy of active telecom properties is approximately 74%.
Inventory Considering the total square footage of properties that are either 100% telecom
or have a large portion of the building devoted to telecom, a total of 1.2 million
square feet of space is available. These properties and their current occupancy
levels as of Q1 2003 are as follows:
There are two pieces of data significant from this list. The first is that there is
1.2 million square feet of vacancy in buildings already engineered for telecom
uses. Consistent with our market demand data provided in Section 2 of this
report, over the last 12 months these tier 1 assets lost a total of 263,000 square
feet of occupancy. The second is that there are a number of buildings available
for telecom that due to market conditions are not currently active. These include
large properties like 617 W. 7th Street, 3434 S. Grand Ave. Then, there are
properties that are very well suited for telecom that never converted and are not
part of the existing inventory. The best example of this is the Broadway
Building. This asset has the necessary floor loads, a large rectangular footprint,
connectivity to existing fiber, and available room for generators. This asset was
recently sold as part of Transamerica Center to a joint venture between Canyon
Partners and Magic Johnson. Just considering properties that were part of the
telecom inventory in 2000 and not included in the 2003 inventory, there is an
estimated 1.4 million square feet of telecom space in buildings totaling over 3.1
million square feet in size. Adding buildings like the Broadway Building to this
inventory of probably telecom assets yields nearly 2 million square feet of
suitable telecom space. Adding the 1.2 million square feet of vacancy in active
telecom assets yields the following conclusion: Our research shows that there is
3.0 million square feet of vacant and highly suitable telecom space in buildings
that are currently active or at one time were considered high quality telecom
assets. None of these assets were considered likely targets for housing
conversion.
Conversion Costs A final factor that will limit the number of downtown properties converted to
telecom in the future (if any) is the cost of conversion. While costs to convert
older downtown assets to telecom differ depending on the necessary
modifications required for each individual asset, a very basic rule of thumb is that
conversion costs run $60 per square foot. This investment may provide some
structural upgrades, vertical runs for fiber and other conduit, switching rooms,
upgraded fire and life safety equipment, and pads for generators. Telecom
tenants themselves will add additional dollars as they install generators,
Uninterruptible Power Supply (“UPS”) systems and cooling systems. The total
cost per square foot for a sophisticated telecom installation can run as high as
$500 per square foot.
As long as existing product is available, the first assets to be occupied in the
event of future growth in telecom space needs will be existing vacant product
and assets that already invested substantial capital on telecom but sit empty.
Also, assuming that these past real estate developers were somewhat efficient, it
is likely that they chose the best candidates for early conversion during the last
expansion phase. Thus, these should be the same assets that will be deemed
most suitable if another expansion phase triggers telecom space absorption in
downtown Los Angeles.
Mixed Use One of the questions asked of this study is the potential for mixed use
Opportunities telecom/housing properties. In theory there could be some compatibility
between housing, which needs parking, and telecom, which doesn’t need
parking. However, there are a number of factors that minimize this opportunity.
In our interviews with real estate professionals on the west coast, we were not
able to identify a single property that was a combination of telecom and
residential uses. Key reasons identified follow:
§ The first issue is that available parking areas are frequently utilized by
telecom properties as a location for generators, air conditioning equipment
and transformers. The lack of necessary parking for employees in telecom
structures makes this area available for other telecom uses.
§ Second is the fire and life safety aspect of combining these two asset types.
Telecom hotels have generators with significant quantities of fuel available
for power outages. Adding to the hazard is the huge concentration of
electrical equipment in these facilities. Even though the fire and life safety
equipment in telecom facilities is some of the most technically advanced, it is
difficult to consider housing as complimentary to telecom. Developers do
not believe renters and condominium owners would want these large fuel
reserves nearby.
§ The physical structure of the assets preferred for housing is dramatically
different than that required for telecom (this concept is explained further in
Section 4). Thus, even though a telecom installation might have excess
parking, it is unlikely to be a building that housing developers would desire.
The most likely complimentary approach to housing and telecom is to have
buildings in close proximity to one another. Parking that is not converted to
telecom support could be available for housing. This parking could be near to a
housing development, but would not be located within the same physical
property. To the extent renters and condominium owners are willing to accept
offsite parking, there is some minimal potential for these uses to compliment one
another.
INVENTORY Conclusions reached from a review of Los Angeles CCCPA telecom inventory
CONCLUSION are the following: 1. There is substantial supply of vacancy in existing active
telecom properties available (over 1 million square feet of supply). 2. There is
substantial supply of vacant or dark telecom assets available (an additional 2
million square of supply). 3. There is no cost advantage to converting additional
assets until existing telecom ready assets are occupied. 4. The conclusions of
Section 2 raise questions regarding a substantial increase in demand for telecom
square footage within the CCCPA. 5. The conclusions reached in Section 4 (to
follow) strongly suggest that telecom will not compete for assets considered
viable for housing. Our opinion is that there is little threat of telecom taking any
desirable housing assets in the next 10 years. Further, it is not very likely that
telecom will even fill existing and available telecom square footage in the next 5
to 10 years.
TELECOM ORDINANCE
ORDINANCE The draft language for the ordinance that would have protected buildings within
OVERVIEW the core of Los Angeles’ Central Business District is provided as an exhibit at
the end of this section. The key elements of the ordinance are:
A reading of the ordinance shows that other specific exceptions are also a part
of the ordinance, however, the three components noted above provide the most
important and meaningful aspects of the ordinance as it might be used in the
future to manage Telecom within the CCCPA.
This section of the telecom study provides some background as to how these
key tenets of the ordinance were derived. We also provide a brief analysis of
ordinances in other cities and how these ordinances affect telecommunications
firms within their CBD properties.
Note: In order to provide full disclosure, it should be noted that the writers of this
report worked for Jones Lang LaSalle at the time of deliberations between the members
of the business and government community noted above, and were involved in
providing data and consultation to these parties as they developed the k ey provisions
of the ordinance.
ANALYSIS OF KEY The Ordinance Authors considered numerous findings with respect to telecom
ORDINANCE and its influence on Los Angeles CBD properties when they drafted the
PROVISIONS language of the ordinance. Below, we will review the key provisions of the
ordinance and some of the data utilized by the Ordinance Authors at the time the
ordinance was developed. Much of this data remains applicable to telecom and
will be relevant to members of the Los Angeles Housing Department as it deals
with the subject of telecom in the future.
80% Occupancy The 80% occupancy ilmit was the result of considering three goals of the
Limit Ordinance Authors.
n First, they did not want telecom to occupy 100% of an asset, or a large
number of downtown assets. This would create a city of electronic
warehouses leaving our streets devoid of any activity or vibrant life. The
source of concern is the fact that telecom installations utilize far less labor
than typical office uses. Interviews with telecom tenants, landlords in
telecom buildings and actual headcounts conducted in telecom spaces results
in a density estimate of 4 employees per 10,000 square feet of telecom
space. This is a combination of 2 permanent employees per 10,000 square
feet and an average of two visiting technicians on site. This compares to a
typical density of employees in office space of 40 employees per 10,000
square feet. Thus, there is roughly a 10:1 ratio of employment in “active
uses” vs. telecom uses.
n Second, the Ordinance Authors simultaneously valued the positive impact
telecom was having on the downtown core. Despite bringing lower
employment densities to LA office buildings, telecom was taking space in
mostly empty buildings. Over 3,000,000 square feet of space targeted at
telecom users was empty before the explosive expansion of telecom. Some
of the properties were not even considered part of the Los Angeles CBD
property inventory because they had been dark for such an extended period.
They were no longer considered viable properties. Jones Lang LaSalle
estimated that direct employment of once empty spaces correlated with
1,214 new jobs. Further, it was determined that after adjusting for the 24/7
nature of telecom operations and considering the uses frequently arriving in
properties along with telecom installations (for example - call centers, data
centers, programming services, back office processing operations, etc.)
telecom adjacent employment provides nearly 4,000 new jobs. Thus, it was
important to the Ordinance Authors to not destroy the positive impact of
telecom on net employment growth.
n Third, the Ordinance Authors correctly assessed that many high rise office
buildings could not become 100% occupied by telecom switching centers.
Telecom equipment creates a tremendous physical load on a property. The
electronic gear, on-site air conditioning systems, UPS systems largely made
up of rows of battery packs creates a large structural load within a building.
Most high rise properties are not designed with these loads in mind. While
the asset can maintain structural integrity in a vertical plane, this is not the
case in the event of horizontal motion. Because of the risk of earthquakes in
Los Angeles, a multistory office property can typically not be loaded with
more than 60% to 80% telecom. If it were, the lateral loads placed on the
structure during an earthquake could cause structural damage. In a detailed
telecom conversion study prepared for Toyo Real Estate by Jones Lang
LaSalle, it was determined that two telecom properties (once office
properties) could convert 60% to 65% of total space to telecom without risk
to each property’s physical structure.
Retail Frontage – A second key provision of the ordinance manages the placement of telecom in
First 50 Feet retail areas. This is an important provision in assuring that retail spaces remain
available for active uses. These are spaces that help support a larger
community, including housing developments, and not just the employees within a
certain building. From a community standpoint, the Ordinance Authors felt
protection of retail was crucial.
n The Ordinance protects the first 50 feet of ground floor frontage in a
property. The analysis behind this is that most effective retail requires good
frontage and a higher ratio of windowed space to non-windowed space.
Long, narrow and dark retail spaces are difficult to lease and do not
generate strong foot traffic. Thus, the Ordinance Authors felt that the key
to maintaining a vibrant street ambiance was to protect the vital retail space
that is along the window line of a building, not in the depths of a building.
n Allowing the non-retail portions of first floor space to be used for telecom
uses benefits those tenants that require the installation of telecom
infrastructure. First floor spaces are beneficial in that they frequently have
higher load limits than upper floors in a high-rise building. Thus, using
“deep” interior ground floor space allows landlords to upgrade their buildings
to telecom specifications at lower cost.
25% Occupancy The third key provision relates to the conversion of telecom in the Historic Core
Limit in Historic of Los Angeles. The Historic Core is considered to be the area bordered by 2nd
Core street to the north, Hill Street to the west, 9th and Olympic to the south, and Los
Angeles Street to the east. The Ordinance Authors took a much more
aggressive stance in limiting telecom within the Historic Core to no more than
25% of a building.
n A key force driving this more aggressive limitation on telecom is the
recognition that a number of building within the Historic Core are well suited
for housing conversion and redevelopment. A study prepared for the Los
Angeles Conservancy by Killefer Flammang Purtill Architects reviewed
more than 220 properties within the Historic Core for their potential
application as housing. They identified 50 properties that appeared most
suitable for housing conversion. Chuck Barns of Killefer Flammang Purtill
Architects indicated that they attempted to identify properties that could be
converted at minimal cost, had a high ratio of window space to total floor
area, appropriate bay depths for apartment use, architectural appeal, and
access to parking. Many of the buildings selected have smaller footprints,
benefit from a high ratio of window to floor area and exhibit a “U” or “E”
shape common to properties built in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. (A
photo is included on the following page that shows this “U” and “E” building
shape common to many of the Historic Core assets.)
OTHER CITIES A search of restrictive ordinances in other cities did not identify many anti
telecom measures. (Note: this search did not include restrictive ordinances
related to cell towers, of which there are hundreds.) The two most notable were
found here in the state of California. A restrictive measure was adopted in
Sacramento and a measure primarily aimed at diesel pollution was adopted in
San Francisco.
Sacramento n The restrictive measure in Sacramento was adopted in August 2000. Any
(Conditional Use telecom installation within the downtown core that would consume more
Permit) than 25% of a property’s space requires a Conditional Use Permit (“CUP”).
Pressure for this restrictive measure came from those wanting to protect
downtown retail establishments.
n The difficulty of an ordinance of this nature is that it subjects a property to a
review process that is largely subjective – a CUP approval process. This
effectively is a death blow to any telecom development. The reason is that
the costs to develop plans for a telecom conversion are very expensive.
ORDINANCES The current state of the telecommunications market is such that many
SUMMARY ordinances that were once planned (like that in Los Angeles) were put on hold
and viewed as unnecessary. We believe that the overall demand for telecom
spaces and the availability of existing spaces will probably not change this sense
of need for restrictive measures. However, we also believe that measures
similar to that put in place in the Bay Area will become more common. Whether
it is a telecommunications building, a data center, or a call center, our collective
use of electronic equipment is growing rapidly. This will continue to give rise to
the need for UPS systems and other back-up power systems. This heavy
electrical use will sustain a spotlight on backup generators vs. other methods to
guarantee uninterrupted power delivery.