JAMIE PAULA G.

MENDOZA BSA THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD

Has the Philippines undergone the demographic transition?

The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It is based on an
interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes,
or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.

Philippines has so far failed to achieve a similar demographic transition as most of its Southeast and East Asian
neighbors have. Philippines are experiencing a slow demographic transition with high birth rates and sluggish living
standards. Filipinos must consider whether the 21st century will bring shortages of land, forests, water, fuel, and
resources and a population hungry, crowded, and in need of stability and health. Instead of a demographic
transition, the Philippines may find itself in a demographic trap.

The UN body described the demographic transition as a change from a situation of high fertility and high mortality
rates to one of low fertility and low mortality. A country undergoing a demographic transition experiences sizeable
changes in the age distribution of its population. These changes, coupled with the right policies, affect economic
growth.

The concept was first described by American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-20th century, according
to the UNFPA. The “demographic sweet spot,” according to the transition model, is the point at which the birth
rate begins to decline and the rate of population growth begins to slow, while the majority of the population is of
working age.

In the case of the Philippines, the study noted that while fertility rates have dropped slowly, the population growth
rate for the country has remained high compared to its neighbors in Asia.

The UN body described the demographic transition as a change from a situation of high fertility and high mortality
rates to one of low fertility and low mortality. A country undergoing a demographic transition experiences sizeable
changes in the age distribution of its population. These changes, coupled with the right policies, affect economic
growth.

The concept was first described by American demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-20th century, according
to the UNFPA. The “demographic sweet spot,” according to the transition model, is the point at which the birth
rate begins to decline and the rate of population growth begins to slow, while the majority of the population is of
working age.

In the case of the Philippines, the study noted that while fertility rates have dropped slowly, the population growth
rate for the country has remained high compared to its neighbors in Asia.

With the fertility rate of 3 in 2013, the Philippines tied with Laos for having the highest fertility rate in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations and South Korea. Singapore and South Korea recorded the lowest fertility
rate of 1.2 among the countries.

Reference:

http://pages.uwc.edu/keith.montgomery/demotrans/demtran.htm

https://www.manilatimes.net/ph-to-miss-demographic-sweet-spot-study/272397/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12179237