Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2010 – 2029
Toulouse, December 13th
John Leahy
Chief Operating
g Officer
Customers
GMF highlights
4.0 +45%*
3.5
3.0
2.5
20
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 E
8% November
Passenger
traffic up
6% 7.8%
4%
2%
0%
Real & forecast GDP
Traffic ASKs
-2%
2%
-4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: IHS Global Insight (November 2010 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus
Still a two-speed World
History Forecast
8%
Emerging
6%
economies*
economies
4%
2% Mature
economies
0%
-2%
-4%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
8% Traffic
up
4% 5.4%
4.9%
0%
United States
-4%
Western Europe
Emerging
g g Economies*
8%
-8%
-12%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
150
%
140
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Asia Pacific
130
120
110
100
90
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3
2010 2010 2010
Source: Ascend
Growing A380 network especially in Asia-Pacific
40 A380s flying 27 routes to 20 destinations
24,000 revenue flights and over 200,000 flight hours
London
Manchester
Montreal Frankfurt
Paris
Zurich Beijing
Toronto
New York Tokyo Los Angeles
Washington Seoul
O 9 million
Over illi passengers h have enjoyed
j d ththe A380
experience in the first three years
Airlines returning to profitability
6.3%
5.5%
5.1%
North America
4.0% 3.8%
3 4%
3.4%
2.9% Europe
-0.1%
-1.8%
-2.2%
-4.7%
RPK (trillion)
ICAO Airbus
Ai b
total traffic GMF 2010
10.0
8.0
Air traffic
Air traffic
will double
60
6.0
has doubled every
i the
in th nextt
15 years
15 years
4.0
20-year
world annual
2.0
traffic growth
4.8%
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
% of 2009 % of 2029
0 500 1 000 1,500
1,000 1 500 2,000
2 000 2,500
2 500 3,000
3 000 3,500
3 500 world RPK world RPK
Africa +5.8% 3% 4%
CIS +4.7% 3% 3%
RPK (billion)
17,870
16,000
12,000
8 000
8,000
4,000
4,330
1,910 1,740
0
Single-aisle & Small jet Small-twin aisle & Intermediate twin-aisle & Large aircraft & Large
freighters Regional freighters Long range freighters freighters
17,870
16,000 16,980
GMF 2009
GMF 2010
12,000
8 000
8,000
4,000
4,240 4,330
6,240 twin
twin-aisle
aisle aircraft
140
History Forecast
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (November 2010), Airbus
Innovation towards greater fuel efficiency
Efficiency
A30X
Game-Changing Solutions
A320 + Sharklets
Today 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2024 2025 2026 2027
A320neo – to further improve efficiency
Sharklets:
Over 3
3.5%
5% fuel burn saving on long sectors
Improved field performance
The best of what we have today – with MUCH better fuel burn
Summary
A market for more than 25,800 new passenger and freighter aircraft.
The twin-aisle
Th t i i l passenger aircraft
i ft market
k t will
ill accountt ffor more th
than 5
5,700
700 new
aircraft deliveries.
Some 1,300 very large aircraft to meet passenger demand offering lower cost
per seat and more flexibility.
The demand for 870 new freighter aircraft deliveries reflects the market needs
f hi
for highly
hl efficient
ffi i t aircraft
i ft to
t compensate
t further
f th increasing
i i fuel
f l price.
i
Christopher Emerson
Senior Vice President
Market & Product Policy
Reducing risk through analysis
Model the impact of evolving airline models e.g. Low Cost Carriers
8% Traffic
up
4% 5.4%
4.9%
0%
United States
-4%
Western Europe
Emerging
g g Economies*
8%
-8%
-12%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
History Forecast
8%
Emerging
6%
economies*
economies
4%
2% Mature
economies
0%
-2%
-4%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Western Europe 1
North America billion
Japan people
2009
Australasia
Seychelles
Malta Cyprus Macao Iceland
Maldives New Zealand UAE Ireland
Barbados Singapore Australia
St Lucia Hong Kong
Bahrain
Spain USA Denmark
Canada UK
Trinidad Greece Kuwait Finland Switzerland Qatar
Fiji Puerto Rico Italy Sweden
1
Samoa Mauritius France
Oman Austria
Cape Verde Latvia Taiwan South Korea Brunei Germany
Saudi Arabia Japan Belgium Netherlands
Estonia
Costa Rica Chile Czech Rep. Israel
Jordan Brazil Libya
Slovenia
Hungary
Bolivia Russia
uss Slovakia
a
Mongolia Chi Uruguay
China
0.1 Equatorial Guinea
Senegal Belarus
India
Angola World average
Liberia Swaziland
Bangladesh
Lesotho
0.01 Iraq
Chad
2009-2029 AAGR*
<2.5% 2.5-4%
% 4-5.5% 5.5-7% >7%
2009 and 2029 traffic volume per fastest growing traffic flow
20-year % of 2029
0 50 100 150 200 250 world RPK
growth
g
Middle East - South America 15.2% 0.5%
North Africa - P.R. China 9.5% 0.1%
Domestic India 2009 traffic 2029 traffic 9.2% 2.2%
Middle East - South Africa 9.1% 0.4%
Africa Sub Sahara - P.R. China 8.6% 0.2%
Canada - Central America 8.5% 0.1%
CIS - P.R. China 8.5% 0.1%
P.R. China - South Africa 8 3%
8.3% 0 2%
0.2%
North Africa - South Africa 20-year 8.3% 0.1%
Africa Sub Sahara - North Africa annual traffic
growth* 8.3% 0.2%
Africa Sub Sahara - South Africa 8.2% 0.3%
Canada - Indian Sub 8.5% 8 1%
8.1% 0 2%
0.2%
Africa Sub Sahara - South America
8.1% 0.1%
Indian Sub - US
8.0% 0.4%
P.R. China - Russia
7.8% 0.2%
d a Sub - P.R. C
Indian China
a
7 7%
7.7% 0 2%
0.2%
Asia - Indian Sub
7.5% 0.8%
Africa Sub Sahara - Middle East
7.5% 0.5%
Middle East - P.R. China
RPK (billion)
7.4% 0.3%
Australia/NZ - Middle East
7.3% 0.7%
Level of RPK from/to each city in 2009 and 2029 for Middle East
2009 2029
The way how the traffic is accommodated in the network has a big impact on
the type and the number of aircraft the industry requires
Tendencyy to Bigger
gg aircraft ? Tendencyy to Smaller aircraft ?
68% of 2029 traffic volume
will be between expanding regions
Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows
8.0
6.0
55%
4.0
37%
2.0
24% 32%
0.0
76% 63% 45%
Rest of World
Traffic within & between USA,
USA Canada,
Canada Western Europe and Japan
2009
2029
T 500/3300 cities
Top iti
Level of RPK from/to each city in 2009 and 2029 for Asia
2009 2029
Development of passenger numbers on HKG arrival flights from Europe and the Americas
Connecting
140%
traffic grew PAX numbers relative to 2005 level
((2005 set to 100%))
twice as fast
as nonstop traffic
130%
120%
Connecting traffic*
5.8% p.a.
110%
Nonstop traffic
2.9% p.a.
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
* Connecting traffic vs. nonstop traffic: e.g. LHR – HKG – SYD vs. LHR – HKG
Lowering
g seat costs with bigger
gg
aircraft at the hub
Growth realistically split
between frequency and capacity
Allocation of traffic growth to flight frequency and aircraft capacity (as function of frequency and distance)
Frequency
Distance
Qualitative model; model quantitatively differentiated according to different traffic regions and traffic flows
A
A B
A
185
85
184 184
180
181
180 179
180
179
177
175
173
170
167
165
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Retirement Deliveries
20-year % of 20-year
0 2 000
2,000 4 000
4,000 6 000
6,000 8 000
8,000 total deliveries total deliveries
2009-2019 2020-2029
Asia-Pacific 8,290 33%
deliveries deliveries
Africa 1,050 4%
CIS 840 3%
Fleet build-ups
build ups covering 217 freight carriers
FTKs (billions)
550
History Forecast
500
450
400
AAGR 2009-2029
350 5.9%
300
250
86% International
World FTKs
200
Domestic
150
84%
100 World FTKs
50
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
Source: Airbus GMF 2010 2029
20-year freighter demand for almost 3,000 aircraft
1,380
1,400
New freighters 380
1,200
Conversions 150
1,000 910150
150 1,000
490
800
670
600
400
420
200
150
0
Small Jets Regional & Long Range Large
Small jet freighters: 727, 737, A320P2F, BAe 146, DC-9, Tu-204 ;
Regional & long range freighters: 707, 757, 767-200, A300, A310, A321P2F, DC-8, DC10 -10, A330,
767-300, 747 Combi, DC10-30 ;
Source: Airbus GMF 2010 Large freighters: 747F, 777, A350, MD-11, A380
New aircraft demand will average at 1,300 per year
17,870
16,000
12,000
8 000
8,000
4,000
4,330
1,910 1,740
0
Single-aisle & Small jet Small-twin aisle & Intermediate twin-aisle & Large aircraft & Large
freighters Regional freighters Long range freighters freighters