7.

Snow Tires – Market sizing (Source: Roland Berger)

Difficulty level: 3

Problem Statement
Your client is Wilson Tire, located between Montreal and Toronto on the 407 highway.
Mr. Wilson is attempting to size the market for snow tires in Montreal. Help Mr. Wilson
estimate the total market size and how many purchases might be made each year.

Potential Framework
1. This question might begin with an estimation of the total population of Montreal. This
total might include a student vs. full-time resident population.
2. Next, a person might consider number of cars per household or number of cars per
student. It might also be a good idea to consider the types of cars that will require
snow tires (i.e., 4-wheel drive might not require tires)
3. Special consideration might be given to students. For example, some students may
buy their tires out-of-state.
4. Finally, consider how often people install tires on their car and how many snow tires
people buy (2 or 4).

Suggested Solution

Candidate: I’d like to start by estimating the total population of Montreal, and
segmenting this into students and full-time residents.
I would say the population of Montreal is approximately 2 million. Since Montreal is
known to be a university town, I would say 30% of these are students. This makes 0.6M
students, and 1.4M full-time residents.
Interviewer: That sounds about right. What next?

Candidate: I would like to divide the full-time resident population by households.

Assuming that each household consists of 3 members on average, this means there are
approximately 0.5 million households. Further assuming there are 2 cars on average in each
household, that makes 1 million cars for the full-time resident population.
As Montreal is a city, and fairly easy to get around, I would estimate the % of students
with cars to be very low, say 20%. This makes 120,000 cars in total for the student
population.
Interviewer: Okay. What does that imply about the market for snow tires?

Candidate: Well, since some cars are 4 wheel drives, not all of the cars above will
require snow tires. Since Montreal is known to have harsh, snowy winters, I think the % of 4
wheel drives would be higher, approximately 20%. This leaves 96,000 student cars and
800,000 household cars that would require snow tires

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 However, not all of the population might purchase their snow tires in-state. For example,
most of the students with cars are likely to be from another province or state. Thus, I would
estimate 50% of students to purchase their tires outside of Montreal. This narrows the size of
the market to 840,000 (800,000 + 96,000*0.5).
Interviewer: Great. Is there anything else you would want to consider?

Candidate: Yes, I would look at how often people replace their snow tires. I know from
personal experience that the average is usually 3 years, depending on mileage. I would also
want to look at the number of snow tires consumers usually buy. However, I know that in
Montreal, cars are required to have 4 snow tires.

Interviewer: What do you think the final market size is?

Candidate: Since I’ve determined the number of cars needing snow tires in Montreal to
be 840,000, and the number of tires to be 4, it would be approximately 3.40 million. Dividing
this number by 3 (as tires are only replaced every 3 years) would give a market size of 1.13
million tires per year.

Interviewer: Good job. I will pass on your conclusions to Mr. Wilson.

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15. Social life – Market sizing (Source: Roland Berger)

Difficulty level: 4

Problem Statement
How many people have you interacted with over the last year?

Suggested Solution
Break into manageable subcategories and estimate them separately.
1. McGill – almost 10,000 students, faculty and admin, assume I interact with 5%, so
say 500.
2. Social Settings – Events occur once or twice per week, more around the holidays, so
say 100 events per year. The average number of people is on the order of 10 per
event. Same people at different events, assume I see the average person 4 times.
100 events * 10 people / 4 times = 250 people. Maybe 50 of these people are also at
McGill, so round down to 200 people.
3. Everyday activities – dry cleaner, supermarket, favourite pizza place, post office, etc.
I typically interact with a cashier and server, so assume 2 interactions per visit.
Assume 3 errands or visits per day = 20 locations per week, average visit interval is
once every two weeks, so there are 40 unique locations * 2 interactions = 80 people.
Round up to 100 to account for my neighbours, doorman, my doctor, dentist, and
other people I see over and over.
4. Random meetings – people who stop you to ask for directions, people you talk to on
the subway and people who attempt to steal your laptop or wallet - assume 2 people
per week or 100 annually.
5. Other meetings – people you meet on vacation, at sporting events, shows, etc.
Assume 50 people.
6. Total number of people in a year = 500 + 200 + 100 + 100 + 50 = approximately
1,000

Tips
Only count each unique person once (students who neglect this detail might come up
with ridiculous answers like 13,000).
!

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