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From: Change Research
Date: October 11, 2018
RE: Arizona Statewide Results
Recent polling from Change Research, commissioned by by the David Garcia for
Governor campaign, shows the race for Governor competitive heading into the final
month. Despite a heavy blitz of negative advertising, Doug Ducey holds a 47.2% to 39.6%
lead and is under the 50% threshold an incumbent should be at heading into re-election.
A tenth (11.4%) say they are undecided. Garcia holds a significant lead with women (48.6%
- 36.7%), with the Governor receiving barely more than a third; David leads among Latinos
(44.5% - 38.9%) and young voters (53.3% - 27.2% 18-34 years old). Among Democrats,
Garcia leads 85.2% to 2.7%.
Voters are pessimistic about the direction Arizona is heading with a majority (52.7%)
believing the state is heading off on the wrong track. With resources and a clear
message offering the change voters seek, the race will be highly competitive down the
stretch.
Polling was conducted online from October 9th through 10th, 2018. Using its Bias Correct
Engine to attain a sample reflective of the electorate throughout the state, Change
Research polled 783 likely voters in Arizona. Post-stratification weights were made on
age, gender, ethnicity, county, and 2016 Presidential vote to reflect the distribution of
likely voters.
Change Research Tracking Poll -- David Garcia for AZ
783 Likely Voters, October 9th-10th, 2018
● What is your gender?
49% Male
51 Female
● In what year were you born?
17% 18-34
23 35-49
32 50-64
28 65+
● What race/ethnicity best describes you?
78% White / Caucasian
17 Hispanic
2 Black or African American
2 American Indian or Alaska Native
1 Asian / Pacific Islander
● How would you say that things are going in Arizona right now? Are they going in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
47% Right direction
53 Wrong track
● If the general election for Governor of Arizona were held today, who would you vote for?
[RANDOMIZE]
All Women Men White Hispanic 18-34
39.6% 48.6% 30.6% 39.3% 44.5% 53.3 David Garcia, the Democrat
47.2 36.7 57.8 48.7 38.9 27.2 Doug Ducey, the Republican
11.4 12.7 10.1 10.8 12.8 16.8 Undecided
1.7 1.9 1.6 1.2 3.9 2.6 Would not vote
● If the general election for US Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
[RANDOMIZE]
All Women Men White Hispanic 18-34
43.7% 52.4% 34.7% 42.9% 48.5% 48.4 Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrat
43.5 33.9 53.3 45.2 33.9 28.2 Martha McSally, the Republican
10.9 11.9 9.9 10.8 12.5 19.2 Undecided
1.7 1.9 2.1 1.2 5.2 4.2 Would not vote
● Which of the following political parties do you most closely identify with? [RANDOMIZE]
39% Republican
35 Democrat
19 Independent
7 Libertarian
● On a scale of 1-10, how do you feel about President Donald Trump? 1 means you strongly
oppose him and 10 means you strongly support him.
34% 10 - Strongly Support
5 9
6 8
3 7
2 6
2 5
0 4
1 3
3 2
45 1 - Strongly Oppose
49% Total Support (6-10)
49 Total Oppose (1-4)
● In the November 2016 election, did you vote for: