PP 7767/09/2011(028730)

11 October 2010
RHB Research

Malaysia
Corporate Highlights Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

M ar k et Up dat e
11 October 2010
MARKET DATELINE

Benchmarking
GLC Domination

♦ Impending big listings. While the listings of MMHE and Petronas

Table 1. FBM KLCI Sector Weights
Chemicals have long been anticipated by the market since the PM’s
Implied Implied
announcement on 30 Mar, the exercises have gained speed in recent
Sector Weight (%) Weight (%)
weeks. The public offering for MMHE will close on 14 Oct, while the listing
– Before – After
is slated for end-Oct. The other Petronas-related listing will likely go
changes changes
through end-Nov.
Finance 35.33 34.45
♦ MMHE will qualify for FBM 100 but not the FBM KLCI. Based on our Plantation 18.7 18.23
estimates, MMHE will not qualify for inclusion into the FBM KLCI even Telecom 14.11 13.76
though its indicative full market cap of around RM5.8-6.1bn will be Gaming 9.41 8.28
slightly larger than the current smallest stock, Berjaya Sports Toto at Power 8.58 8.36
RM5.6bn. Two other non-FBM KLCI stocks, UEM Land and IJM Corp Transport 3.88 3.78
currently have larger market caps and will thus rank higher in the review. Construction 3.26 3.18
Nevertheless, we expect MMHE to be included in the FBM 100 at the 37th Oil & Gas 2.13 5.47
position by full market cap, and with an estimated index weight of around Infra 1.81 1.77
0.31% based on the indicative institutional IPO price of RM3.80. Consumer 1.52 1.48
Motor 1.27 1.24
♦ Petronas Chemicals in FBM KLCI. The situation is more straightforward Prices as at 8 Oct
for Petronas Chemicals with an anticipated full market cap that will likely Figures are before and after assuming the
be greater than 2% of the FBM EMAS full market cap (around RM1.1bn listing of Petronas Chemicals
based on 8 Oct closing). However, the stock’s inclusion will coincide with Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI
the year-end review of the FBM indices, and we think the review
committee will likely time the changes together.
Table 2. Top Picks
♦ B-Toto is at risk, while MAS is a possible casualty. Under the FBM
Price# (RM) FV (RM)
Ground Rules, a non-FBM KLCI stock needs to climb higher than 25th
Tactical Plays
position by full market cap in order to be added to the index, or
Gamuda 3.82 4.51
alternatively a FBM KLCI stock needs to fall below the 35th position to be
MRCB 2.06 2.49
deleted. B-Toto has fallen to 37th position and is thus at risk. In any case,
HSL 1.81 1.95
due to the inclusion of Petronas Chemicals, B-Toto will almost certainly be
Tenaga 8.86 10.80
deleted from the FBM KLCI unless it can overtake MAS, currently at 30th
Faber 3.08 3.82
position. UEM Land has risen to 27th position, and is thus closest to
Longer-Term Picks
promotion. If it gets past 25th place, then MAS will also be demoted.
Maybank 8.98 10.50

♦ Power to Petronas. After completion of both IPOs, Petronas-related CIMB 8.17 9.60

stocks (including Petronas Chemicals, MISC, Petronas Gas, Petronas IOI 5.50 6.75

Dagangan, MMHE, Proton, KLCC Property and Bintulu Port) will have KLK 17.40 22.05

combined weightings of 8.77% and 7.49% of the FBM KLCI and the FBM Mah Sing 1.93 2.06

100 respectively, vs. 5.51% and 4.45% currently. Media Prima 2.15 2.75
KPJ 3.66 4.51
♦ GLCs to dominate. GLC stocks owned by EPF, PNB, Petronas and LTAT Parkson 6.00 7.72
will have combined FBM KLCI and FBM 100 weightings of 55.07% and Dialog 1.19 1.30
47.82% respectively. The market will thus likely remain relatively well- Carlsberg 5.20 6.03
supported. Importantly, the combined market cap of the FBM KLCI would AirAsia 2.17 3.01
rise from RM943bn to RM989bn, potentially drawing new foreign funds # As at 8 Oct
into the market, although we highlight that the two IPOs would be Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI
competing with upcoming major IPOs in Hong Kong. At worst, the two
listings could divert liquidity away from key sectors with banks,
plantation, telecom and gaming sectors most affected in terms of index
Yap Huey Chiang
weightings. In any case, we expect the market to remain volatile due to
(603) 92802171
uncertain external factors, and we recommend investors rebalance their
yap.huey.chiang@rhb.com.my
portfolios on market dips and top slicing on spikes.

Please read important disclosures at the end of this report.

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Table 3. FBM KLCI – Potential Index Changes

Implied Implied
Price Index Wt. – Index Wt. – Change to
8 Oct Current* After^ Index Wt YTD Rel. vs. YTD Abs.
Company (RM) (%) (%) (%-pts) KLCI (%) Chg (%)
1 Malayan Banking 8.98 10.37 10.11 (0.26) 12.5 30.9
2 CIMB Group 8.17 9.78 9.53 (0.25) 9.3 27.3
3 Public Bank 12.58 9.67 9.43 (0.24) (2.9) 13.0
4 Sime Darby 8.59 8.43 8.21 (0.22) (17.7) (4.2)
5 Axiata Group 4.57 6.30 6.14 (0.16) 28.7 49.8
6 Tenaga Nasional 8.86 6.30 6.14 (0.16) (9.4) 5.5
7 Genting 10.26 6.21 6.05 (0.16) 20.1 39.8
8 IOI Corp 5.50 6.00 5.85 (0.15) (13.6) 0.5
9 MISC 8.69 3.38 3.29 (0.09) (8.0) 7.1
10 Digi.Com 24.98 3.17 3.09 (0.08) (2.3) 13.8
11 AMMB Holdings 5.91 2.91 2.83 (0.08) 1.6 18.2
12 Maxis 5.32 2.60 2.54 (0.06) (14.9) (0.9)
13 Genting Malaysia 3.55 2.28 2.23 (0.05) 8.5 26.3
14 PPB Group 17.50 2.26 2.20 (0.06) 0.9 17.4
15 Telekom Malaysia 3.49 2.04 1.99 (0.05) (2.0) 14.1
16 Kuala Lumpur Kepong 17.40 2.02 1.97 (0.05) (9.4) 5.5
17 PLUS Expressways 4.16 1.81 1.77 (0.04) 9.6 27.6
18 Gamuda 3.82 1.69 1.65 (0.04) 26.2 46.9
19 YTL Corp 7.60 1.57 1.53 (0.04) (10.6) 4.1
20 BAT 49.00 1.52 1.48 (0.04) (1.6) 14.5
21 YTL Power 2.31 1.46 1.42 (0.04) (11.4) 3.1
22 Petronas Gas 11.00 1.42 1.39 (0.03) (4.2) 11.4
23 Hong Leong Bank 9.30 1.28 1.25 (0.03) (1.7) 14.4
24 UMW Holdings 6.79 1.27 1.24 (0.03) (8.1) 6.9
25 Berjaya Sports Toto 4.15 0.92 - (0.92) (18.0) (4.6)
26 MMC Corp 3.09 0.82 0.80 (0.02) 9.3 27.2
27 Petronas Dagangan 10.96 0.71 0.69 (0.02) 9.4 27.4
28 RHB Capital 7.51 0.70 0.69 (0.01) 21.7 41.7
29 HL Financial Group 9.05 0.62 0.61 (0.01) 4.2 21.3
30 MAS 2.29 0.50 0.49 (0.01) (11.1) 3.5
Petronas Chemicals 5.00 - 3.39 3.39 - -
* Current index weights are based on 8 Oct prices and existing stocks
^ Index weights are based on 8 Oct prices assuming the listing of Petronas Chemicals has been completed
Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI estimates

Table 4. Changes To FBM KLCI Sector Weightings

Sector Weightings (%)
Index Wt. – Current* (%) Index Wt – After^ (%) Chg In Weighting (%-pts)
Finance 35.33 34.45 -0.88
Plantation 18.70 18.23 -0.47
Telecom 14.11 13.76 -0.35
Gaming 9.41 8.28 -1.13
Power 8.58 8.36 -0.21
Transport 3.88 3.78 -0.10
Construction 3.26 3.18 -0.08
Oil & Gas 2.13 5.47 3.34
Infra 1.81 1.77 -0.05
Consumer 1.52 1.48 -0.04
Motor 1.27 1.24 -0.03
*Current index weights are based on 8 Oct prices and existing stocks
^ Index weights are based on 8 Oct prices assuming the listing of Petronas Chemicals has been completed
Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI estimates

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Table 5. FBM 100 Potential Index Changes

Price Implied Index Implied Index Change to
8 Oct Wt. – Current* Wt. – After^ Index Wt (%- YTD Abs. Chg
Company (RM) (%) (%) pts) (%)
1 Malayan Banking 8.98 8.45 8.20 (0.25) 30.9
2 CIMB Group 8.17 7.97 7.73 (0.24) 27.3
3 Public Bank 12.58 7.88 7.64 (0.24) 13.0
4 Sime Darby 8.59 6.87 6.66 (0.21) (4.2)
5 Axiata Group 4.57 5.13 4.98 (0.15) 49.8
6 Tenaga Nasional 8.86 5.13 4.98 (0.15) 5.5
7 Genting 10.26 5.06 4.91 (0.15) 39.8
8 IOI Corporation 5.50 4.89 4.74 (0.15) 0.5
9 Digi.Com 24.98 2.58 2.51 (0.07) 13.8
10 AMMB Holdings 5.91 2.37 2.30 (0.07) 18.2
11 Maxis 5.32 2.12 2.06 (0.06) (0.9)
12 MISC 8.69 2.06 2.00 (0.06) 7.1
13 Genting Malaysia 3.55 1.86 1.80 (0.06) 26.3
14 PPB Group 17.50 1.84 1.78 (0.06) 17.4
15 Telekom Malaysia 3.49 1.66 1.61 (0.05) 14.1
16 KLK 17.40 1.65 1.60 (0.05) 5.5
17 PLUS Expressways 4.16 1.48 1.43 (0.05) 27.6
18 Gamuda 3.82 1.38 1.34 (0.04) 46.9
19 YTL Corporation 7.60 1.28 1.24 (0.04) 4.1
20 IJM Corp 5.25 1.26 1.22 (0.04) 17.2
21 BAT 49.00 1.24 1.20 (0.04) 14.5
22 Petronas Gas 11.00 1.16 1.12 (0.04) 11.4
23 Hong Leong Bank 9.30 1.04 1.01 (0.03) 14.4
24 UMW Holdings 6.79 1.04 1.01 (0.03) 6.9
25 SP Setia 4.95 0.89 0.87 (0.02) 26.3
26 YTL Power 2.31 0.89 0.86 (0.03) 3.1
27 AirAsia 2.17 0.80 0.77 (0.03) 57.2
28 Berjaya Sports Toto 4.15 0.75 0.72 (0.03) (4.6)
29 AFG 3.25 0.67 0.65 (0.02) 19.9
30 MMC Corp 3.09 0.67 0.65 (0.02) 27.2
31 Lafarge M Cement 8.00 0.60 0.58 (0.02) 28.0
32 Bursa Malaysia 8.45 0.60 0.58 (0.02) 5.8
33 Parkson Holdings 6.00 0.58 0.56 (0.02) 13.0
34 Petronas Dagangan 10.96 0.58 0.56 (0.02) 27.4
35 RHB Capital 7.51 0.57 0.56 (0.01) 41.7
36 Genting Plantations 7.97 0.54 0.52 (0.02) 27.7
37 HL Financial Group 9.05 0.51 0.49 (0.02) 21.3
38 Batu Kawan 12.50 0.48 0.47 (0.01) 21.6
39 UEM Land 2.41 0.47 0.45 (0.02) 96.2
40 Top Glove Corp 5.39 0.44 0.43 (0.01) 7.7
41 Affin Holdings 3.25 0.43 0.42 (0.01) 29.0
42 MAS 2.29 0.41 0.39 (0.02) 3.5
43 Berjaya Corp 1.05 0.39 0.38 (0.01) (15.1)
44 IGB Corporation 1.88 0.37 0.36 (0.01) (6.0)
45 Star Publications 3.64 0.36 0.35 (0.01) 16.4
46 Titan Chemicals Corp 2.27 0.35 0.34 (0.01) 86.1
47 MRCB 2.06 0.35 0.34 (0.01) 62.4
48 KFC Holdings 3.30 0.35 0.34 (0.01) 78.4
49 Tan Chong Motor 5.79 0.34 0.33 (0.01) 85.6
50 EON Capital 6.97 0.34 0.33 (0.01) 1.9
51 Malaysia Airports 5.84 0.34 0.33 (0.01) 47.1
52 WCT 3.20 0.33 0.32 (0.01) 23.1
53 Hartalega Holdings 5.10 0.33 0.32 (0.01) 23.0
54 Multi-Purpose Holdings 2.20 0.29 0.29 - 17.6
55 Media Prima 2.15 0.29 0.28 (0.01) 28.7

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56 Shell Refining Co 10.72 0.29 0.28 (0.01) 1.9

57 F&N Holdings 14.44 0.27 0.27 - 36.9
58 KLCC Property 3.28 0.27 0.26 (0.01) (4.7)
59 SapuraCrest Petroleum 2.38 0.27 0.26 (0.01) (4.0)
60 KNM Group 0.50 0.26 0.26 - (35.7)
61 Kulim Malaysia 9.30 0.26 0.25 (0.01) 23.2
62 Boustead Holdings 5.25 0.26 0.25 (0.01) 51.7
63 Supermax Corp 4.20 0.25 0.25 - 11.9
64 Proton Holdings 4.87 0.24 0.23 (0.01) 24.6
65 Pos Malaysia 3.23 0.23 0.22 (0.01) 45.5
66 Litrak 3.41 0.23 0.22 (0.01) 22.2
67 Guinness Anchor 8.45 0.23 0.22 (0.01) 21.6
68 Dialog Group 1.19 0.23 0.22 (0.01) 26.2
69 Mah Sing Group 1.93 0.21 0.21 - 25.9
70 Wah Seong Corp 2.18 0.21 0.20 (0.01) (6.5)
71 DRB-Hicom 1.21 0.21 0.20 (0.01) 19.8
72 AEON Co (M) 5.90 0.18 0.18 - 19.0
73 O.S.K. Holdings 1.35 0.17 0.17 - (1.3)
74 Mudajaya Group 4.39 0.16 0.16 - (11.7)
75 Malaysian Bulk Carriers 2.98 0.16 0.15 (0.01) (7.5)
76 Puncak Niaga 2.84 0.16 0.15 (0.01) (6.3)
77 IJM Land 2.62 0.15 0.15 - 11.5
78 Carlsberg Brewery 5.20 0.14 0.14 - 16.7
79 Bintulu Port Holdings 6.63 0.14 0.14 - 3.2
80 QL Resources 4.96 0.14 0.13 (0.01) 53.4
81 Hap Seng Plantations 2.40 0.14 0.13 (0.01) 4.3
82 Sunway City 3.99 0.13 0.13 - 22.8
83 Media Chinese 0.88 0.13 0.13 - 64.5
84 Hap Seng Consolidated 2.90 0.13 0.12 (0.01) 19.3
85 YTL Cement 4.66 0.12 0.12 - 8.9
86 IJM Plantations 2.60 0.11 0.11 - 4.8
87 Kencana Petroleum 1.69 0.11 0.11 - 17.6
88 KPJ Healthcare 3.66 0.11 0.10 (0.01) 40.6
89 Ann Joo Resources 2.80 0.10 0.10 - -
90 JCY International 0.95 0.10 0.10 - n.a.
91 NCB Holdings 3.61 0.09 0.09 - 18.8
92 Starhill REIT 0.86 0.09 - (0.09) 0.6
93 TA Global 0.40 0.09 0.08 (0.01) (10.1)
94 MPI 5.85 0.09 0.08 (0.01) 9.3
95 BHIC 4.49 0.08 - (0.08) (12.0)
96 JT International 5.63 0.08 0.08 - 15.6
97 TA Enterprise 0.65 0.08 0.08 - (8.5)
98 BIMB Holdings 1.25 0.07 0.07 - 4.2
99 Amway (Malaysia) 7.92 0.07 0.07 - 8.5
100 UBG 2.47 0.04 0.04 - 4.2
MMHE 3.80 - 0.31 0.31
Petronas Chemicals 5.20 - 2.86 2.86
* Current index weights are based on 8 Oct prices and existing stocks
^ Index weights are based on 8 Oct prices assuming the listings of MMHE and Petronas Chemicals have been completed
Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI estimates

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Table 6. Changes To FBM 100 Sector Weightings

Sector Weightings (%)
Index Wt. – Current* (%) Index Wt – After^ (%) Chg In Weighting (%-pts)
Finance 31.07 30.14 -0.94
Plantations 17.03 16.52 -0.51
Telecom 11.5 11.15 -0.35
Gaming 7.67 7.44 -0.23
Power 6.69 6.49 -0.20
Construction 4.76 4.62 -0.14
Transport 4.23 4.1 -0.13
Oil & Gas 3.53 6.52 2.99
Consumer 3.39 3.29 -0.10
Property 2.76 2.59 -0.17
Infra 1.86 1.8 -0.06
Motor 1.83 1.77 -0.06
Gloves 1.02 0.99 -0.03
Others 0.86 0.83 -0.03
Materials 0.83 0.8 -0.02
Media 0.77 0.75 -0.02
Tech 0.19 0.18 -0.01
* Current index weights are based on 8 Oct prices and existing stocks
^ Index weights are based on 8 Oct prices assuming the listings of MMHE and Petronas Chemicals have been completed
Source: Bloomberg, RHBRI estimates

Table 7. RHBRI’s Top Picks

Price FV EPS EPS Growth PER PBV PCF GDY
FYE (RM/s) (RM/s) (sen) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) Rec
8 Oct FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY11 FY11
Tactical Plays
Gamuda Jul 3.82 4.51 19.0 20.5 36.5 7.9 20.1 18.6 2.1 49.9 3.1 TB
MRCB Dec 2.06 2.49 6.4 6.7 23.5 4.9 32.3 30.8 2.1 20.2 0.0 TB
HSL Dec 1.81 1.95 16.2 17.7 21.4 8.9 11.1 10.2 2.3 13.1 1.4 OP
Tenaga Aug 8.86 10.80 78.7 90.8 15.8 15.4 11.3 9.8 1.3 4.7 3.6 OP
Faber Dec 3.08 3.82 34.2 38.2 30.4 11.4 9.0 8.1 2.0 5.8 2.6 OP

Longer-Term Picks
Maybank Jun 8.98 10.50 61.9 69.6 14.7 12.4 14.5 12.9 2.1 n.a. 3.9 OP
CIMB Dec 8.17 9.60 56.3 64.5 17.2 14.6 14.5 12.7 2.1 n.a. 1.5 OP
IOI Jun 5.50 6.75 33.6 34.9 28.3 3.8 16.4 15.8 3.3 14.5 3.1 OP
KLK Sep 17.40 22.05 124.4 131.4 42.1 5.6 14.0 13.2 2.8 13.3 3.7 OP
Mah Sing Dec 1.93 2.06 17.2 21.2 22.8 23.2 11.2 9.1 1.6 21.7 3.6 OP
Media Prima Dec 2.15 2.75 16.5 19.4 21.3 17.6 13.0 11.1 2.0 6.6 5.2 OP
KPJ Dec 3.66 4.51 26.6 29.9 10.7 12.2 13.7 12.3 2.1 10.8 4.4 OP
Parkson Jun 6.00 7.72 37.3 47.9 26.6 28.5 16.1 12.5 2.7 5.8 1.3 OP
Dialog Jun 1.19 1.30 8.8 10.7 50.4 21.1 13.5 11.1 3.9 12.3 4.1 OP
Carlsberg Dec 5.20 6.03 42.8 47.5 5.2 10.8 12.1 10.9 2.6 10.1 4.9 OP
AirAsia Dec 2.17 3.01 25.1 27.8 9.4 10.7 8.6 7.8 1.5 5.0 0.0 OP
^ FY11-12 valuations refer to those of FY12-FY13 Source: RHBRI, Bloomberg

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The opinions
and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or be
contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

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This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

The recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows : -

Stock Ratings

Outperform = The stock return is expected to exceed the FBM KLCI benchmark by greater than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Trading Buy = Short-term positive development on the stock that could lead to a re-rating in the share price and translate into an absolute return of 15% or
more over a period of three months, but fundamentals are not strong enough to warrant an Outperform call. It is generally for investors who are willing to take
on higher risks.

Market Perform = The stock return is expected to be in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark (+/- five percentage points) over the next 6-12 months.

Underperform = The stock return is expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark by more than five percentage points over the next 6-12 months.

Industry/Sector Ratings

Overweight = Industry expected to outperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Neutral = Industry expected to perform in line with the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

Underweight = Industry expected to underperform the FBM KLCI benchmark, weighted by market capitalisation, over the next 6-12 months.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for
the actions of third parties in this respect.

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