VOL. 9, NO.

1 WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH FEBRUARY 1973

KSIM- A Methodology
for InteractiveResource
PolicySimulation
Jo•xos KA•g, ILA• VERTINSKY,AND WILLIAM THOMSON
Resource Science Centre, University oi British Columbia
Vancouver 8, British Columbia, Canada

A new mathematical language (KSIM) has been developed and designed for interactive
team use. Many features of KSIM make it particularly appropriate for use in formulating
environmental policy. (1) It is easily grasped by the nonmathematical specialist and can
communicatethe workingsof complex,nonlinear feedbacksystemsto such people. (2) It
allowsfor ready entry of such'soft' subjectivevariablesas environmentalquality and national
sovereignty. (3) It emphasizesthe significanceof structural relations rather than numerical
prediction.(4) It is flexible and easily generalized.As an illustration of it• use,we showhow
KSIM can facilitate discussion of the mqltiple impactsof possibleCanadian water salesto
the United States.

Water is different. It is not just another 1. KSIM describesthe complexinteraction

natural resource.It is a deep-seated,emotional
trigger that elicits primordial reactions resis-
tant to intellectual persuasion.Consequently,
policy questionsinvolving the distribution and
use of water cannot be resolved by abstract
models that optimize numerical coefficients.
Emotions, subjective evaluations, and every
human facet must play a proper role; other-
wisemathematicalsimulations,while technically
adequate, will be ignored,misconstrued,or dis-
missedby political'realists.'However,'
resource flexible.
questionsdo involve the complicatedinterplay
of variables and complexity beyond unaided
human comprehension. Unquestionably com-
puter assistanceis required, but how can such
mathematical augmentationbe introducedwith-
out overwhelming
or threateningthe egosand
sensitivities of either decision makers
public?
We have addressed ourselves to just such
questions in the context of Canadian water
policy. Clearly such subjective variables as
Canadiansovereigntyand environmentalquality
play an important, if not a crucial role. Yet
howcansuch'eof,t'variablesinteractwith 'hard'
data and be incorporated into mathematical
simulation models? Thus motivated
developed a simulation procedure (KSIM)
which has the following features:
Copyright ¸ 1973 by the American Geophysical Union.
of both soft and hard variablesin a realistic,
nonlinear fashion, and yet does not require
mathematical sophisticationin its use.
2. KSIM encouragesgroup interaction and
serveswell to focusthe dialoguebetweenpeople
of differingviewpointsand representing
diverse
specialties.
3. WhereasKSIM makessomebasicassump-
tions about growth characteristicsand interac-
tion behaviorit is easilymodifiedand completely
4. KSIM is designedto emphasizethe geom-
etry of relationships rather than to make nu-
merical predictions.
GEOMETRIC VERSUS ARIT:HMETIC SIMULATION
The last feature of KSIM is important and
or the deservesfurther elaboration. The major barrier
that has hamperedintroductionof soft variables
into simulation models is the assumptionthat
they need to be defined in precise, numerical
terms before they can be given to the com-
puter. As R. Hutchins (personnal communica-
tion, 1968) wryly put it, If you can't count it,
it doesn't count. This attitude, which might be
called the arithtnetic bias and which is so
we have prevalent among technicians, is the major
stumbling block denying subjective evaluations
their proper role.
We need to remind ourselves that the science
of mathematics is not exclusively concerned
65
66 KANE ET AL.: POLICY SIMULATION

with numbers. Indeed there is the major area
of geometry, which is concernedwith shapes
and structural relations.Our languagerecognizes
this. Think how much is conveyed when we
say that three peoplehave a triangular relation-
ship. No numbers need be given, yet we im-
mediately grasp most of the workings of the
system. The fact that the 'triangle' tells us
much, but not all, is also important. Geometric
concepts permit more slack than arithmetic
thinking. A geometricstatementis, for example,
A is bigger than B. This is often all we need
to know and we expendmuch uselesseffort in
trying to arithmetizethe statementby measur-
ing A and B. Subjectiveevaluationsgenerally
correlatewell with geometricunderstanding.If
not too much (precision) is asked for it is
possibleto get more (understanding);i.e., it
The KSIM panelsthat we shall refer to have
typically had memberswho were: (1) faculty
and graduate students in disciplinessuch as
law, communityand regionalplanning,sociology,
civil engineering, and forestry; (2) middle-
managementexecutivesfrom industry; and (3)
career officials in the government, particularly
the Ministry of the Environment.
Not all the groupsmentionedabove partici-
pated in our water exercisebut in other social
simulations [Kane et al., 1972; Kane, 1973;
W. Thomson, I. Vertinsky, and J. Kane, un-
publisheddata, 1972]. Even so, we have found
that much of the group interaction and ques-
tioning has characteristicsthat are independent
of the particular compositionof the group or
its focus of interest. From our experienceswe
have come to emphasize that what we call
,

is a geometricobservationthat the outflow of KSIM is not an instrumentof policy but rather

a reservoir exceeds the inflow. This statement a meansof educatingpolicymakers.KSIM is
saysan extraordinaryamount even if numerical an attempt to give them a handson facility by
values of flow rates and reservoir capacity are which they can learn for themselvesthe in-
not given. tricacies of complex systemsand the inherent
What we are trying to emphasizeis not the limitations of human decisions.
virtue of ambiguity, but rather that an imper- Our simulationlan•guage is designedfor the
fect messageor subjectiveevaluationdoescon- ready use of such panels of nonmathematical
tain someinformation. It is important to extract experts and follows a Delphi-like procedure
and make use of this information rather than [Martinc, 1968; Dalkey and Hetmer, 1963].
discard it entirely becauseit is vaguely given. Through an initial seriesof guidedround table
Such concernshave led us to emphasizerela- discussions and private interludes,the panelists'
tionshipsrather than numbers.In modelsthat comments,suggestions, and ideasare meldedto
pretend to predict the time and place of future construct an initial version of the simulation
eventsthere is a preoccupationwith coefficients model. Thereafter, each panelist is given full
and precision.To us, it has been a most pro- freedom and ability to modify this model and
ductive revelation to changeour concernsfrom to react to the modifications of others. Tentative
when somethingwill happen in a complexsys- hypothesescan be tested in the model without
tem to how we can gain more comprehension fear of censure.Subjectingalternative formula-
and intuition into the workings of intricately tions to sensitivity analysis directs debate to
linked feedbacksystems.In the sequelthis will matters of genuinecontroversy,thus resolving
become evident. We have little concern with many initial differencesof opinion. By its re-
trying to predicthowmuchwater Canadamight quirement of an explicit statement of funda-
sell to the United States in 1984. Indeed, we mental assumptions,the simulation procedure
feel that any number we might producewould creates a clear framework in which various
either be presumptuousor ridiculousin light relationshipswithin the systemmay be investi-
of the major uncertainties ahead. Rather, we gated. These relationshipsgenerallylead either
have used our policy modelsas a learning tool, to a convergence of opinionor a clearerdelinea-
a deviceto give knowledgeable, but mathemati- tion of differences. The ease with which the
cally unsophisticatedindividuals,an opportunity model can be manipulated allows even persons
to participate actively in the structuring of not involved in the model-building procedure
mathematical models and to gain personal ex- to gain a direct understandingof the particular
perience into the workings of complex, non- conceptualization.Thus the simulation aids
linear feedbacksystems. boththe process
whereinexpertscombineefforts
 KANE ET AL.' POLICY SIMULATION
to extend their understandingof a problem and
the processof communicatingthese results to
others.
Our KSIM impact calculus is designedto
impart a feeling for the linkages that cross-
connectpolicy variables.As a prime hypothesis
we assumethat in actual policy implementation
more insight is needed in geometric concepts
(the connections.
betweenvariables,the direction
of forces,and threshold and saturation of varia-
bles). To us, such considerationshave far more
importancethan arithmetic specificationof pa-
rameters.Consequently,KSIM is designedpri-
marily to impart an appreciationof the geom-
etry and dynamics of the system rather than
an appreciationof numericalbookkeeping.
SIMULATION MODEL
Embedded in the simulation model are five
basicconditionsthat underliethe impact calcu-
lus. Unlike postulates,which are inflexible,these
basicconditionsare zero-orderassumptionsthat
can subsequentlybe perturbed. They are:
1. All system variables are bounded.
2. Variables change according to the net
p,(t) --
-[
.=
1-1--
•At•ß= Olii
+•i._•i
xi d•i
dt] +
impact of all the other variables.
3. The responseof a variable to a given
impact goes to 0 as the variable approaches
either bound, threshold, or saturation.
4. All else being equal, a variable produces
greater effectson the systemwhen it is larger.
5. Complexinteractionsare describedby an
array of binary interactions.(Synergesticeffects
are modeled by more advanced versions of
KSIM.)
We have chosento adopt mathematical algo-
rithms that embody these characteristicsfor
a variety of reasons.Foremost amongstthese is
the realization that no element in any human
system can grow without limit [Holling, 1969].
However, those features that ultimately limit
the growth of a variable are frequently ignored
in standard formulations involving differential
67
equations either because the factors are un-
known or becauseto incorporate them would
pose insurmountableproblemsin mathematical
formulation. To reduce the distortions intro-
duced by such difficulties,our calculusassumes
at the outset that all variables are bounded,
scaled for convenienceto range from 0 to 1.
FORMULATION
The algorithm operates as follows' For the
state variables x,(t), (i -- 1, 2, ." , n) we have
0 < x•(t) < i i = 1, 2, ... , n t >_ 0
In addition we may include several variables
that act on the system, but are not themselves
acted on (i.e., interventions). These additional
state variables will be denoted x, (t), (i -- n q-
1, --' , m). We calculate the updated state
vector x,(t q- At) by the transformation
x,(t-Jr-At) -- x,(t)p'(t) i -- 1, 2, ... ,n
where the exponent pt(t) is chosenexplicitly
as
xi dt l -- oti
(3)
i xi dt IJ
xi
The matrix elementsa, give the impact of xj
on x,, and the entries /•, are matrix elements
giving the impact of the percentagechangein
xj, d/dt(ln x•) on xj, and At is the time period
of one iteration. Whereas the a, and /•,• are
generally constant, they may be functions of
the variables x, and time.
Equation 3 implies p{(t) > 0. Hence the
transformation (2) maps the open interval (0,
1) onto itself, and preservesthe boundedness
of the state variables (1). Equation 3 can be
made somewhat clearer if thought of in the
following form'
p,(t)
1 q- At Isumof negativeimpactson x•l
1 -+-At Isumof positiveimpactson x•I
(4)
68 KANE ET AL.' POLICY SI1ViULATION

When negative impacts outweigh positive ones, evident provided that the c•j and fi•j are
the exponent p• is greater than unity and x• constant.
decreases.When p, -- 1, x, is unchanged.Ii To gain greater insight into this system of
the negative impacts are less than the positive equations, considerthe specialcaseof a single
ones, p• is lessthan unity and x• increases(2). independent variable without any derivative
The remaining properties of this formulation feedback (fi --0). For this situation (5) be-
become clearer if we examine the limiting sys- comes
tem of differential equationsimplied by (2) and
dx/dt = --ax In x (6)
(3) as A/-• 0
The growth characteristicsof the solution of
this differential equation are plotted in Figure
dt - .__ agixinu •i dt/ ' 1 for various valuesof the growth parametera.
The essentialsigmoidalcharacterof the growth
i-- 1, '" ,n (5) shouldbe noted, i.e., limited changenear thres-
An inspection of this system of differential hold (x = 0) or saturation (x = 1). It should
equations (5) indicates that as x• .-• 0 or 1, be observedthat since (6) involved x In x, the
the derivative dx•/dt --) 0 and thus character- behavior of the curves is not symmetric about
istic 3 follows. Therefore the expression --x• x = •. As long as a is restricted to constant
In x• may be said to modulate the responseof values, growth rates near threshold are not
variable x• to the impact given by the summed paralleled by similar positioning near satura-
terms. Characteristics 4 and 5 are similarly tion. This is actually observedin practice in

lo

0.5

0.1

0
time
Fig. 1. The variations of z as given by (6) for differing values of the parameter • 0.1, 02,
0.•, 0.4, and 0.5. In all easesthe initial vMue is 0.5.
 KANE ET AL.: POLICY SIMULATION 69

many biological,social, political, and economic terms of plus and minus; e.g.,What impact will
institutions. There is no reason why growth the sale of water to the United States have in
rates near birth shouldbe comparableto growth terms of development of hydropower (a•)?
rates near maturation. Indeed, this is a point Instead of asking for a numericalanswer,we
that yon Bertalan]y [1969] has commentedon ask, Will the impact be positive or negative?
in considerabledetail, and his skewed growth (in this casethe answerwill clearlybe positive)
curves are quite comparable to those given and, Is the impact mild (+), strong (+ +), or
by (6). overwhelming(q- q- q- ) ? Of course,ultimately
At any event the actual shape of the pre- the plus and minus will be translated into
sumed growth curves is of little matter, for if numerical values; e.g., half the group might
one shouldwant symmetriccurves, (6) is easily vote for a strong (++) assessment,whereas
perturbed by choosing• -- •(x -- 1)/ln x, the other half might vote for an overwhelming
and if an arbitrary growth variation is desired (q- q- q- ) assessment.A compromiseis easily
of the form dx/dt -- f(x), all one need do is chosenby setting an = 2.5.
choosea = --f(x)/(x In x). Further mathe- The value of using plus and minus is very
matical details are discussedin a separate important in that it frees the nontechnical
technical paper (J. Kane, unpublished data, members of the group from numerical consid-
1973). erations.When we ask someoneto give a nu-
merical estimate we usually overwhelm his
WORKINGS OF THE PANEL
powers of estimation. Unlike the arithmetic
Preliminaries.In constructingthe water mode] requisition,the geometricchoice(mild, medium,
using KSIM, the panel proceededas follows. or strong) is easily answered and seldom
First, the significantvariableswere introduced. creates psychologicalbarriers. Especially in
In some cases variables have to be relabeled dealing with mathematicalunsophisticates, nu-
or redefined and in others a few distinct con- merical confrontationis a great inhibiting factor
cepts have to be combinedinto one variable, and should be avoided at all costs until the
e.g., environmental quality. Mathematically terminal stagesof the exercise.
speaking, the states of such multidimensional In filling in the entries of the interaction
variables cannot be unambiguouslyordered. matrix there is another hiddenadvantage.Each
However, we have no mental difficulty in de- entry must be given a value, which ultimately
cidingthat the environmentalquality in British might be chosenas 0. However, settingan entry
Columbia is. higher than that in say Harlem. to zero is a consciousact. It is one thing to say
The value framesand perceptionsof the KSIM there is no interaction and another to forget
panel establishan ordering suitable for further to specify the interaction (setting it to zero by
operations. default and in so doing, losing an important
In specifying the variables they are all re- feedbackloop). There is a great benefit in going
scaled to the open interval (0, 1). It proves through the full bookkeepingof all pairings
very suggestiveto think of such values on the of variables. Many significantcouplingsare so
unit interval as percentages.For example,water introduced that would otherwise be overlooked.
sales to the United States are measured as a In all our workings with KSIM groups we
fraction of the Canadian capacity. Thus the ex- have found one point of confusionto be almost
pressionx• -- 0.27 does.not refer directly to universal. Nearly all panel members do not at
so much acre-feet of water but rather it says first properly understandthe differencebetween
that Canada is selling27% of its water to the the a,• and the fi,• entries.The former repre-
United States. Clearly such relative measures sentsconstantcouplingand the latter derivative
are much more suggestivein putting together coupling. The a• entry describesthe impact
mental pictures of the workings of complex that A has on B simply becauseof the existence
systems. of A; e.g., the sun has a positive effect on
The water model is defined once initial values chlorophyll production. On the other hand, the
and a,• and •,• are specified.In choosinga,• fi• entry describesthe effect of a changein A
and • we have found it of great pedagogical on B. The interaction of environmentalquality
value to have •he panel assessthe entries in and an individual's emotional state is of this
70 K•Ns ET AL..' POLICY SI1ViULATION

characterfor we give evidenceof being insensi- pollution abatementactivities,and road build-

tive to the environment. The more sudden the ing.
change,the greater our reaction.Perhapsone
WATER
of the most important things that KSIM can
communicateto the membersof the panels is By. followingthe aboveprocedures the work-
an appreciationof how variables are linked, shop arrived at Table 1 (the a., values) and
whetherthroughconstantor derivativecoupling. Table 2 (the fi,• values),whichare the matrices
In terms of derivative coupling,it will be of interactions.Alphabeticalentriesin the ma-
noticedfrom (3) that we input the logarithmic trices representfunctionsthat govern the ex-
derivative rather than the absolutechange.As ponent of interaction and are listed below.
a first iteration we feel that this is the prefer-
able choice because in the interaction of sub- A = 3.33x1H(0.3- Xl) -- 7.14(Xl- 0.5)
jeetive variables what we sense is most often (Xl + 0.4)H(x•- 0.3)
the percentageor relative change rather than B = o.2)
the absolute change. Whatever the choice, H(0.25 -- x0 -1- 7.11(x,•-- 0.25)
nothing is frozen, for in KSIM it is a simple (x,•- 1.75)H(x,•- 0.25)
matter to override the constant entries in the C= --2(1-- x3)
interaction matrix and to insert functions or D = 50(x4- 0.9)(x4- 0.5)H(0.9- x4)
variables.Thus if we want fi,j to be the coeffi- -- 70(0.5- Xa)'•H(0.5- x4)
cient of an absolute derivative rather than a E = 1.25(x5- 0.8)H(0.8- xs)
logarithmic derivative, all we need to do is F = 2(x•- 0.75)H(x•- 0.75)
-- 6.67(x•- 0.75)'•(0.75- x•)H
introducefi,j' where
Operational pro.cedure. The curvesthat fol- G = 3.33 x3H(0.3 -- x•)
-1- 5(0.5- x•)H(x•- 0.3)
low were producedby studentsand faculty of where
a water resourceworkshop at the University
x• water sales to United States
of British Columbia,who were trying to evalu-
x,• industrialization
ate a water policy for British Columbia. The
x3 pollution abatement
province was chosenas a basic unit since the
administration of water resources in Canada
xa Canadiansovereignty
x5 environmentalquality
is a provincial responsibility.
Almost one-third of the total precipitation and H(x.- oz)is the Heavisideunit stepfunc-
in Canada falls on the province (approximately tion whereH(x -- a) -- 0 for x < a, H(x --
800 million acre-feet a year). It is widely a) = « forx = •,andH(x-- a) = 1 forx
recognizedthat water is one of the most valu-
able natural resources of British Columbia, As was indicated above, some interaction
but its place in the economicand social future coefficientswere hypothesizedto be variable
of the province has not been properly deter- rather than constant. Alternative functional re-
mined [Williston, 1967]. For the province it is lationships were tested by the panel, and
estimated that the total ultimate regulated flow through an iterative process a consensuswas
would be approximately 220 million acre feet reached about the functions listed above. For
of water a year (about 27% of the estimated example, it was hypothesized that Canadian
annual runoff). This amount may be available sovereignty may be threatened if no permis-
for various users. In the modeling procedure sion to sell small amounts of water is given.
a consensus was reached to consider water use The rationale for this hypothesiswas that there
primarily in agriculture (irrigation), hydro- are many border communitiesthat may obtain
power generation,industry, recreation,domestic Canadianwater from neighboringwater supplies
use, and water exportation. The process of without impedingCanadianwater use.However,
modelingwas also designedto inquire into the refusal to deliver the water might lead to
relationships between water use, economic mounting tensions.between Canada and the
growth, environmental quality, and Canadian United States. If some water were supplied,
sovereignty.Other variables added to complete the bargainingposition of Canada with respect
the network of relationshipswere population, to the United States may be enhanced.How-
KANE ET AL.' POLICYSIMULATION 71
72 •ANE ET AL.' POLrCY •II•ULATION

O.5

0.0
0 i i i i ß - 25i i t I i ' dO
(YEARS)

]Fig.2. Projectedsystembehaviorwithout water exports.

ever, when commitment of water exceeds a B = --7.14' (INDUS -- 0.25)(1.75-- INDUS)

certain level, the bargainingadvantageis re- INDUS • 0.25
duced,and whensignificantwater is exported,
the independence of Canadawill be threatened. Initial conditions for the model were esti-
This hypothesiswas justified on the account mated for most variables on the basis of avail-
that it is not possibleto establisha temporary able data. For example,for hydropowera level
water supply to areas outside the province. of I definedthe total hydro capacityof the
'Suchan arrangementwouldbecome"lockedin" province,i.e., it exploitedall the sitesfor dam
with the economyof the areasbeing serviced' constrUc•tion
that werefeasible
froman engi-
[Williston,1967].It is plausible
that an attempt neerin•and economic
pointof view.The total
to withdrawfrom any suchdiversionarrange- potentialand existinghydropowersiteshave an
mentsin the future mightlead to seriouspoliti- estimated
primepowercapacity
of 24 millioh
cal repercussions.Salesof a significantpropor- kilowatts. At present,slightly less than % of
tion of the water to the United States will re- this capacity is developed.Consequently, the
duce by far the freedom of choicesfor future initialvaluechosen
for hydropower
was0.3.In
paths of developmentfor the people in the a few casesit wasnecessary
to setthe boundary
region.To approximatethis nonlinearvariation arbitrarily;e.g.,it wasassumed
that popula-
of the interaction coefficient as a function of tion would not exceed 10 times its current size
the proportionof water sales,the following in a horizonof 50 years.(Evenunderextremely
function was used: optimal conditionsthe regionwouldnot be able
to sustainthe migration requiredto approxi-
B --z---100' (INDUS- 0.05)(INDUS- 0.25) mate this boundary.) To determinewhetherthe
INDUS ( 0.25 initial conditions
wereappropriate,a sensitivity
 KANE ET AL.' POLICY SIMULATION 73

analysiswasconducted concernedpopulation
that especially and industrialization,
environmental
such soft variables as Canadian sovereignty. qualityin the regiondrops.However,increased
awareness of pollutiondangersleadsto rapid
RESULTS
growthin abatementactivities.Thus environ-
The models were run for 50 simulated years. mental quality declinesonly slowly. In this
The results of the basic simulation (no water simulation we see that Canadian sovereignty
export)andthreesimulationswithintervention increasesslightly as economicand industrial
arepresented
in Figures com- growthlead to lessCanadiandependence
2-5. To facilitate on
parisons,
summaries of the levelsof selected importsfrom the United States.
variablesare presentedfor these same four When we intervene in this model by commit-
simulations and two additional ones in Tables ing a portionof the British Columbianwater
3--8. supply for export, we find severaldifferent
trends.Populationgrowthis retardedsomewhat
DISCUSSION
to 2.4% peryearwhen25% of the watersupply
Lookingfirst at the basicsimulationwe find is exportedand to 2.0% per year when50%
that the population slightly of the water supply is exported.
growthrate declines
over the 50-yearsimulatedperiod,the average Underlyingthis observationis the effect of
growthratebeing2.7%peryear.Currenttrends storagecapacityrequirements neededto export
are continuedin industrializationas economic substantialquantitiesof water. A substantial
and populationgrowthprovidethe basisfor storagecapacityrequiresa significantflooding
industrialdevelopment.
With theseincreases
in of valleysthat are neededfor the expansionof

1.0

Canadian
g --. . ....-
........ ,-OVereight
v •',,•".
.........................
................
. •.• •-.-- ._ . ....•.•..
,• ,• ......................
•.•.,•.: . '..............

• .• ..'
- / •'• ."

•' • - • . i•o
•.-'/"
.••. • • ..

" i I ' m i
ø-øo ....
TIME (YEARS)

Fig. 3. Projected
system
behavior
withwaterexports
committed
at a 25%levelof supply.
74 KANE ET AL.' POLICY 8Ii•ULATION

agriculture, industry, and population in the impact of activities and revenuesprovided by

province. Thus the degree of freedom in land the high level of water sales.
use and industrialdevelopment
is considerably Another simulation involved intervention to
reduced. When 25% of the water supply is hold the populationconstantwhen the export
exported,this effect is reflectedin the reduced of available water was 0, 25, and 50%. Without
population growth and the increaseddeclinein the impetus of a growingpopulation,industrial
environmental quality. However, the loss of developmentproceedsmore slowly. Industriali-
potential industrial sites is not sufficientto re-
zation is lessretardedin the two casesinvolving
tard severely industrial development over a water export since water sales and related ac-
40-year period. In fact, the region receivesan tivities now constitute a far greater share of
impetus from water sales,related activities,and the regional economicactivities than they did
injected revenuesfrom salesto more than com- in the caseswhere populationgrowth produced
pensate for the negative impact of the sale of considerableeconomic growth. With less eco-
water on industry. However, when 50% of the nomicgrowth, Canadiansovereigntyis markedly
water supply is exported, the water storage reduced by water export. However, environ-
requirementsare sufficiently high so that few mental quality remains high since there is no
sites remain for new industrial development. populationgrowth and lessindustrialgrowth tc
The severity of this constraintleadsto a reduc- degradeit.
tion in industrializationas comparedwith the In another experiment, sales levels were
casewith no water exports,despitethe economic allowed to vary, subject to the political and

'• o.5-

TIME (YEARS)

Fig. 4. Projectedsystembehaviorwith water exportscommittedat a 50% level of supply.

 KANE ET AL.' POLICY SIMULATION 75

market forces prevailing within Canada, since in environmental quality during the sales pe-
it was assumedthat no contractual or political riod. This decline reduced the attractiveness of
commitment had been made to sell water to the the region,thus inhibiting normally high immi-
United States. We observed a continuous decline gration to the region. When substantialwater
in salesleadingto a terminationof saleswithin sales were committed for a period of 30 years
20 years for initial salesof up to 50% of the or longer, results were similar except for the
available water supply of British Columbia. appearanceof a severe threat to Canadian
This experimentdid not attempt to model a sovereignty.Whereas the water sales initially
realistic situation, but served to illustrate the enhancedthe economicstrength of the region,
potential forces in the region opposingsales. contributing
to Canadiansovereignty,
the effect
The salesinitially led to a sharp increasein of continued sales led to a sharp decline in
industrialization in the region, the increase sovereigntyafter 15 years.
stemmingfrom the injection of capital ex- Another experiment introduced an extreme
pendituresandrevenues in the water high price on water use. This intervention
originating
sales.This industrialgrowthwas.reducedwhen inhibited industrial growth and changed the
sales were terminated. However, the total composition of the economyin the region,stimu-
growth over the 50-year simulationperiod lating recreationrelated industries.Environ-
reached a similar level to that obtained in the mental quality declinedonly slightly, and the
basic simulation. The price to the region of attractivenessof the regionwas maintainedin
water salesmanifesteditself in a sharp decline spiteof slowereconomic growth,leadingto the

1.0 '

0.5-

0.0
o 5k)
TIME (YEARS)

Fig. 5. Projectedsystembehaviorunder zero populationgrowthwith water exportscom-

mitted at a 25.% level of supply.
76 I4•ANE ET AL.: POLICY SIMULATION

TABLE 3. Selected Indices for the Simulation with No Water Exports

Canadian Environmental Pollution

Year Industrialization Sovereignty Population Quality Abatement

0 100 100 100 100 100

5 122 101 115 98 114
15 196 106 153 89 236
25 233 110 198 88 504
40 376 117 293 82 826

Year 0 constitutes the reference base -- 100.

same population growth as that of the basic
model. In this experiment no water was sold to
the United States. When the experiment was
modified by a short-term commitment to sell
half of available water suppliesto the United
States, industrial and agricultural development
was severely retarded. Additionally, although
water sales were not committed, the lack of
industrial and agricultural developmentforced
the region to rely on water sales to maintain
the regionaleconomy.Thus salesof water to the
United States never dropped below 30% of
available supply in this experiment.
And what is the conclusion? Have
scribed exercisesmade a significantimpact, if
any, on Canadian water policy? No, not yet.
It was not our intention at this point to play a
key role in the decision-makingprocess.Ulti-
mately and hopefully yes, but for the moment
suchaspirationsare premature.
For the moment our prime objectiveis educa-
tion. In particular we seekto impart an experi-
ence into the workings of intricately linked
feedback systems.The behavior of such com-
plex systemsis entirely different than the sim-
plified, dimensionallyreducedsystemscurrently
emphasizedin the academiccurriculum.Systems
involving many linked variables exhibit the
following differences:(1) As J. Forrester (per-
sonal communication,1966) has observed,they
are 'counterintuitive,' often behaving in an en-
tirely unanticipated fashion. For example, the
apparently contradictory result that to decrease
the attractiveness
of the environment
of Britis•
Columbia will increase environmental quality
becauseit will tend to reducemigration. (2) Un-
like the classicaltwo or three-body problem,
which can be continuouslyperturbed, complex,
multidimensional systems are often extraordi-
narily resistantto change.They seemto absorb
small intrusions without a significantmodifica-
tion in behavior. Even if more and more intru-
the de- sions are introduced there still seems to be little
effect until one intrusion too many is added.
Then the system 'flips,' adjusting itself to an
entirely different configuration; i.e., high-order
complexsystemsdo not respondcontinuouslyto
small changesbut rather tend to absorb them
until a critical threshold is reached when it
jumps suddenly into an entirely new state.
These are two of the mathematicalpoints we
wished to communicate. On the whole our dem-
onstrations have been successfulin achieving
this aim. As a secondgoal we wishedto impart
a new pattern of holistic thinking. Have we
achievedthis? Perhaps. At least one point was
conveyed.At no time was control on any one
variable successful even if the intrusion were so

TABLE 4. SelectedIndices for the Simulation of Export of 25% of Water Supply

Canadian Environmental Pollution

Year Industrialization Sovereignty Population Quality Abatement

0 100 100 100 100 100

5 138 95 116 96 116
15 257 91 150 78 332
25 317 86 188 74 652
40 517 87 244 62 994

Year 0 constitutes the reference base - 100.

 KANE ET AL.; POLICY SIMULATION 77

TABLE 5. SelectedIndices for the Simulation of Export of 50% of Water Supply

Canadian Environmental Pollution

Year Industrialization Sovereignty Population Quality Abatement

0 100 100 100 100 100

5 128 89 115 95 120
15 195 71 143 75 326
25 201 57 172 74 662
40 310 51 220 68 970

Year 0 constitutes the reference base = 100.

severeas to be unrealistic.However,many panel bring in new variables,to increasethe dimen-

membersobservedthat making a number of sionality of the system. Invariably the urge is
carefully consideredchangesin many variables, to manipulatemore rather than to comprehend
did producethe desiredeffectsand without bad the interactionof fewer. Unlessthe panel mem-
side reactions. bers receiveexperienced guidanceat this point,
Concerning other phases of maturation we they are likely to producean unwieldy, unreal-
have found the evolution of reactions to be istic, and unworkable fabrication. After a few
fairly uniformin all KSIM workshops,
and that patchingattemptsthey are proneto give up.
the reactions could be sorted into several dis- The problem here is comparableto that of
tinct phases. learning a language.The acquisitionof a vocab-
Enthusiasm. At the outset there is an almost
ulary and mastery of the rules of syntax and
unanimousburst of excitement accompanying grammar are hardly sufficient in themselvesto
the anticipation that, Here's a mathematical make an individual articulate, much lessa poet.
techniquethat can tie together and lend weight Linguisticskills must be practiced,and external
to mv intuitive evaluation. This attitude is en- knowledge must be added to them before a
couragedby the apparent, superficialease of proper messagecan be assembled that is worthy
inputing the computer and producing profes- of communication.
sionalseemingsimulations. Therefore it is at the stage of disillusionment
Disillusionment. Often the output will be that a skilled tutor is most required. It is his
completely insensible.Usually this is because responsibilityto guide the discussionin such a
either the wrong variables have been chosenor manner that extraneous variables are eliminated
the panel has no real grasp of how to specify or combinedto produce significant ones, and
crucial interactions.What is particularly dis- that complex systems are broken down into
turbing to the group membersis the realization simpler,comprehensible systemsand then prop-
that their problemsare not mathematicalbut erly cascaded.Such skills of system definition
conceptual,i.e., what they require is a better and assemblyare more of an art than a science,
insight into the linkagesof the systemthey are but we have found a number of individuals who
trying to construct. A typical reaction is to can effectively demonstrate the appropriate

TABLE 6. Selected Indices for the Simulation of Zero Population Growth and No Water Exports

Canadian Environmental Pollution

Year Industrialization Sovereignty Population Quality Abatement

0 100 100 100 100 100

5 117 101 100 99 112
15 150 104 100 97 212
25 144 106 100 101 416
40 147 112 100 108 676

Year 0 constitutes the reference base -- 100.

78 KANE ET AL.: POLICY SIMULATION

TABLE 7. SelectedIndices for the Simulation of Zero Population Growth

and Export of 25% of Water Supply

Canadian Environmenta! Pollution

Year Industrialization Sovereignty Population Quality Abatement

0 100 100 100 100 100

5 132 95 100 97 116
15 208 89 100 87 300
25 227 82 100 90 574
40 352 77 100 90 858

Year 0 constitutes the reference base -- 100.

techniques.Even with considerablepractice, not assumptions.Not many people•are willing to

all membersof the panel will becomeproficient permit a creation of theirs to behave in an un-
in system architecture; but with constant ex- anticipated or contradictory manner. Often too
posuremost eventually do becomeappreciative much emotionalinvestmenthas been expended
of the features of good system design and in the assemblyto allow the output to have
acquire some ability in holistic thinking. If perversebehavior.Rather than presentingsuch
nothing else, each member of the panel begins models as dubious simulations,they are often
to understandwhat systemsanalysisis all about, rationalized as being the best possibleconsider-
what role it can play, what can be expectedand ing the available resources.
what its limitations are, and what questionsto One key advantage of KSIM is that once
ask of it. learned, simulations can be produced rather
Mastery. Only a few have the capacity to rapidly and with comparatively little effort.
go beyondthe spectatorphaseof comprehension Thus there is very little emotional incentive to
to creation. What is required is an individual preservethe structure. Easy to build and easy
with an ability to grasp the holistic essenceof to modify, KSIM modelsare like a sketchpad.
a multitude of facts and theories of interrela- Perhaps their most valuable feature is that
tionships.But even beyond this trait is a more they can easily be torn up, thrown away, and
important ability, what might be called the begun again by the turning of a new page.By
iterative personality.It is a rare individual who its easeof use, KSIM encouragesiteration and
can laboriouslyhypothesizethe workingsof a adaptation, and greatly encouragessystem in-
system, put it together, observe the conclu- tuition.
sions,and then alter the hypothesison the basis
CONCLUSION
of the observations.Even many professional
systems analysts put together models not to Whereas we have presented a number of
determine what the system actually is, but modelssimulatingvarious aspectsof Canadian
rather to reinforce and buttress pre-existing water policy, and whereaswe feel that some of

TABLE 8. SelectedIndices for t,he Simulation with Zero Population Growth

and Export of 500/0of Water Supply

Canadian Environmental Pollution

Year Industrialization Sovereignty Population Quality Abatement

0 100 100 100 100 100

5 123 89 100 95 118
15 158 70 100 83 336
25 143 55 100 86 606
40 188 46 100 99 876

Year 0 constitutes the reference base = 100.

 KANE ET AL.: POLICY SIMULATION
these have significantinterest in themselves,our
goal has not been to produce a working model
bugrather to presenta technique,KSIM, which
has the potential of being a valuable learning
tool. Ultimately, we feel what is essentialis that
a sufficient decision-makingbody be educated
in the processesof mathematical articulation,
and that at least they be appreciative and un-
derstandingof holisticconceptsand the dynam-
ics of complex feedbackstructures.If not ...?
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Ho]ling, C. S., Stability in ecological and social
systems, in Diversity and stability in ecological
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Kane, J., A primer for a new cross-impact lan-
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Kane, J.. W. Thomson, and I. Vertinsky, Health
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Economic Plann. Sci., 6(3), 283-293, 1972.
Martino, J.P., An experiment with the Delphi
procedure for long range forecasting, IEEE
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von Bertalanfy, L., General Systems Theory, G.
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(Received February 21, 1972;
revised June 1, 1972.)